Bust Rate By Position

There is a common misconception out there that picking non-quarterbacks (AJ Green/Patrick Peterson/Marcell Dareus/Von Miller over Cam Newton, Ndamukong Suh over Sam Bradford, Aaron Curry over Matt Stafford, Glenn Dorsey over Matt Ryan) is the safe thing to do, that those guys are sure things. Today I’m going to disprove that by taking the guy highest drafted at each of the positions that manly go top 10 (QB, RB, WR, OT, DE, LB, CB) over each of the last 20 years and seeing how many of them made the Pro Bowl. The Pro Bowlers are in bold. Average pick refers to the average slot in which a player comes off the board because it’s not necessarily fair to say one position bust more than another because it has less Pro Bowlers, when the reason for that is that those players traditionally are drafted lower. Here are my findings.

Quarterback

2012- Andrew Luck 1st

2011- Cam Newton 1st 

2010- Sam Bradford 1st

2009- Matt Stafford 1st

2008- Matt Ryan 3rd

2007- JaMarcus Russell 1st

2006- Vince Young 3rd

2005- Alex Smith 1st

2004- Eli Manning 1st

2003- Carson Palmer 1st

2002- David Carr 1st

2001- Michael Vick 1st

2000- Chad Pennington 18th

1999- Tim Couch 1st

1998- Peyton Manning 1st

1997- Jim Druckenmiller 26th

1996- Tony Banks 42nd

1995- Steve McNair 3rd

1994- Heath Shuler 3rd

1993- Drew Bledsoe 1st

10/20

Average pick: 5.55

Running back

2012- Trent Richardson 3rd

2011- Mark Ingram 28th

2010- CJ Spiller 9th

2009- Knowshon Moreno 12th

2008- Darren McFadden 4th

2007- Adrian Peterson 7th

2006- Reggie Bush 2nd

2005- Ronnie Brown 2nd

2004- Steven Jackson 24th

2003- Willis McGahee 23rd

2002- William Green 16th

2001- LaDainian Tomlinson 5th

2000- Jamal Lewis 5th

1999- Edgerrin James 3rd

1998- Curtis Enis 8th

1997- Warrick Dunn 12th

1996- Lawrence Phillips 6th

1995- Ki-Jana Carter 1st

1994- Marshall Faulk 2nd

1993- Garrison Hearst 3rd

11/20

Average pick: 8.75

Wide Receiver

2012- Justin Blackmon 5th

2011- AJ Green 4th 

2010- DeMaryius Thomas 22nd

2009- Darrius Heyward Bey 7th

2008- Donnie Avery 33rd

2007- Calvin Johnson 2nd

2006- Santonio Holmes 25th

2005- Braylon Edwards 3rd

2004- Larry Fitzgerald 3rd

2003- Charles Rogers 2nd

2002- Donte Stallworth 12th

2001- David Terrell 8th

2000- Peter Warrick 4th

1999- Torry Holt 6th

1998- Kevin Dyson 16th

1997- Ike Hilliard 7th

1996- Keyshawn Johnson 1st

1995- Michael Westbrook 4th

1994- Charles Johnson 17th

1993- Curtis Conway 7th

7/20

Average pick: 9.9

Offensive Tackle

2012- Matt Kalil 4th

2011- Tyron Smith 9th

2010- Trent Williams 4th

2009- Jason Smith 2nd

2008- Jake Long 1st

2007- Joe Thomas 3rd

2006- D’Brickashaw Ferguson 4th

2005- Jamaal Brown 13th

2004- Robert Gallery 2nd

2003- Jordan Gross 8th

2002- Mike Williams 4th

2001- Leonard Davis 2nd

2000- Chris Samuels 4th

1999- John Tait 14th

1998- Kyle Turley 7th

1997- Orlando Pace 1st

1996- Jonathan Ogden 4th

1995- Tony Boselli 2nd

1994- Bernard Williams 14th

1993- William Roaf 8th

13/20

Average pick: 5.5

Defensive End

2012- Bruce Irvin 15th

2011- Marcell Dareus 3rd

2010- Brandon Graham 13th

2009- Tyson Jackson 3rd

2008- Chris Long 2nd

2007- Gaines Adams 4th

2006- Mario Williams 1st

2005- Erasmus James 18th

2004- Will Smith 18th

2003- Terrell Suggs 10th

2002- Julius Peppers 2nd

2001- Justin Smith 4th

2000- Courtney Brown 1st

1999- Jevon Kearse 16th

1998- Andre Wadsworth 3rd

1997- Kenard Lang 17th

1996- Simeon Rice 3rd

1995- Kevin Carter 6th

1994- Joe Johnson 13th

1993- John Copeland 5th

11/20

Average pick: 7.85

Defensive Tackle

2012- Dontari Poe 11th

2011- Nick Fairley 13th

2010- Ndamukong Suh 2nd 

2009- BJ Raji 9th

2008- Glenn Dorsey 5th

2007- Amobi Okoye 10th

2006- Haloti Ngata 12th

2005- Travis Johnson 16th

2004- Tommie Harris 14th

2003- DeWayne Robertson 4th

2002- Ryan Sims 6th

2001- Gerard Warren 3rd

2000- Corey Simon 6th

1999- Anthony McFarland 15th

1998- Jason Peter 14th

1997- Darrell Russell 2nd

1996- Daryl Gardener 20th

1995- Derrick Alexander 11th

1994- Dan Wilkinson 1st

1993- Leonard Renfro 24th

6/20

Average pick: 9.9

Linebackers

2012- Luke Kuechly 9th

2011- Von Miller 2nd 

2010- Rolando McClain 8th

2009- Aaron Curry 4th

2008- Keith Rivers 9th

2007- Patrick Willis 11th

2006- AJ Hawk 5th

2005- DeMarcus Ware 12th

2004- Jonathan Vilma 12th

2003- Nick Barnett 29th

2002- Napoleon Harris 23rd

2001- Dan Morgan 11th

2000- LaVar Arrington 2nd

1999- Chris Claiborne 9th

1998- Keith Brooking 12th

1997- Peter Boulware 4th

1996- Kevin Hardy 2nd

1995- Mark Fields 13th

1994- Willie McGinest 4th

1993- Marvin Jones 4th

12/20

Average pick: 9.25

Cornerback

2012- Morris Claiborne 6th

2011- Patrick Peterson 5th 

2010- Joe Haden 7th

2009- Malcolm Jenkins 14th

2008- Leodis McKelvin 11th

2007- Darrelle Revis 14th

2006- Tye Hill 16th

2005- Pacman Jones 6th

2004- DeAngelo Hall 8th

2003- Terence Newman 5th

2002- Quentin Jammer 5th

2001- Nate Clements 21st

2000- Deltha O’Neal 15th

1999- Champ Bailey 7th

1998- Charles Woodson 4th

1997- Shawn Springs 3rd

1996- Alex Molden 11th

1995- Tyrone Poole 22nd

1994- Antonio Langham 9th

1993- Tom Carter 17th

8/20

Average pick: 10.1

 Position  Percentage  Average Pick
 Quarterback  50%  5.55
 Running back  55%  8.75
 Wide Receiver  35%  9.9
 Offensive Tackle  65%  5.5
 Defensive End  55%  7.85
 Defensive Tackle  30%  9.9
 Linebacker  60%  9.25
 Cornerback  40%  10.1

One note, just because 13/20 offensive tackles made the Pro Bowl doesn’t mean offensive tackle is by far the safest pick. Offensive tackle do not have stats, really, so Pro Bowl voters, fans at home, normally go for the biggest name and vote them into the Pro Bowl. Who are the biggest names? Well, most likely they are the guys who were drafted higher.

I think this clearly gets rid of any misconceptions that quarterbacks bust more than any other position. Other than offensive tackle each position had between a 30% and a 60% Pro Bowl rate and an average pick of below 10.1. This shows two things.

First, having a top ten pick is not necessarily a gift. Second, it shows that, considering how often top ten picks bust, if you have a top ten pick and you need a quarterback, take one.

The quarterback position is, especially in today’s game, the most important position on the field by far. You’re making a huge risk picking in the top ten anyway. Might as well go all in for a quarterback if you need to.

In short, the next time you hear someone say “taking a quarterback in the top ten is risky.” Show them this and tell them that taking any player in the top ten is risky.

Not convinced that quarterbacks are necessary in the NFL. Take a look at this stat. 20 of the last 22 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks had made a Pro Bowl prior to winning the Super Bowl.

Not convinced that you need to take a quarterback in the first round to get a franchise quarterback, consider the fact that 9 of the 12 quarterbacks in the playoffs last year were drafted in the first 32 picks, and then read this, to see what happened to those quarterbacks drafted after the first round. It isn’t pretty.

Leave a comment