At this time last year, some were talking about the Patriots as a potential 9-7 or 8-8 team that would miss the playoffs. The Jets were the talk of the division and some were even speculating the Dolphins were better than the Patriots. Their defense was inexperienced and their key offensive players were on the wrong side of 30 (Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Randy Moss).

The Patriots did what they did whenever anyone doubts them; they dominated. After starting the season sluggish, losing to the Jets in 28-14 week 2, the Patriots traded Randy Moss after week 4 and only lost one more regular season game the rest of the way (to the Browns), dominating the Jets 45-3 in the process. Unfortunately, their season came to a crashing halt with a 28-21 home loss to the Jets in the first round of the playoffs.

Now, some are once again suggesting the Jets are the better team in the division, which should be more fuel for the Patriots heading into the season. Yes, the Jets have reached back to back AFC Championship games, but the Patriots went 14-2 last year, 3 games better than the Jets. That can’t be discounted. What also can’t be discounted is that their defense will be better this year.

Young players like Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, and Devin McCourty have more experience under their belt and all of those guys got better as the season went on, particularly McCourty who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. The Patriots have also added veterans like Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth, and Andre Carter to their defensive line, allowing them more defensive flexibility.

It appears that the always adapting Patriots will be moving either partially or completely to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 this year. Andre Carter dominated in his last season in a 4-3, with 11 sacks as recently as 2009. Haynesworth, meanwhile, had 4 sacks as a defensive tackle in 2009 in a 4-3. Haynesworth didn’t even have the motivation in 2009 that he has now. Haynesworth will be motivated to prove Mike Shanahan wrong for letting him go. He also doesn’t have any guaranteed money on his contract. I’m not saying Haynesworth will have 8.5 sacks like he did in 2008 before he got his big deal or Carter will put up 11 sacks again, but both will be talented contributors for them when they go into a 4-3.

Rounding out their 4-3 defensive line are Vince Wilfork, one of the few mainstays on this defense and a perennial Pro Bowler, and Jermaine Cunningham, a 2010 2^nd round pick who showed some promise as a rookie last year. Shaun Ellis will also be in the mix as an end and could slide inside to tackle on passing downs. When (if?) they go to a 3-4, Wilfork will play the nose. Wilfork has experience in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 in his career so he’ll be a key to their team, whichever scheme they play. In a 3-4, their ends will be Shaun Ellis and Gerard Warren. Albert Haynesworth will also be in the mix.

No matter which defensive scheme they play, Jerod Mayo figures to be very big playmaker for them. Mayo, only 25, led the league in tackles last year. He dominated in college at Tennessee in a 4-3, so he’ll fit whatever scheme they play. Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton are their other talented young linebackers. Spikes, a 2^nd year player, ran a 5.0+ 40 at The Combine in 2010 so I have some worries about how he fits a 4-3.

In a 3-4, Spikes and Mayo team up in the middle to wreak havoc. Jermaine Cunningham would play one rush linebacker spot, while Mark Anderson, Rob Ninkovich, and Andre Carter would see some time at the other rush linebacker spot. Basically, they have a lot of talented role players, which allows them to have a lot of versatility in the front 7, just what Belichick likes.

In the secondary, they should be better than they were last year. Devin McCourty, as you already know, was a Pro Bowler. However, they had nothing opposite him as both Darius Butler and Kyle Arrington were mediocre at best. Leigh Bodden is back from injury and 2^nd round pick Ras-I Dowling will also be in the mix. At safety, Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, and Patrick Chung will also be significant playmakers.

 

Offensively, it’ll be the same story. They’re going to be very, very good as long as Tom Brady is under center. The Patriots return 4 of 5 starters from an offensive line that was one of the best in the league last year and they will get a full season of Logan Mankins, an extremely talented guard who stepped in midseason after a holdout made a huge difference. He’ll be even better this season with no holdout distracting him. They also have 17^th overall pick Nate Solder waiting in the wings.

The only non-starter from last year on the line is Dan Connolly, though Connolly did see significant time when Mankins was holding out and he played alright. At the tackles, Matt Light has resigned to be their starting left tackle. He was a very talented player for the Patriots in his prime, but he’s declining and could even be moved to right tackle this season. That wouldn’t be a problem for the Patriots because right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is an extremely talented player who allowed just one sack all last season and deserves a shot on the left side in his 3^rd year in the league. Center Dan Koppen is also a declining player, but still above average.

At receiver, the Patriots will mix things up a lot. They will go to a lot of three wide receiver sets with Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, and Wes Welker. Ocho gives them the legitimate deep threat they lacked last year, a huge part of the reason why they lost against the Jets. Wes Welker will be better this year than last year as he’s another year removed from major knee surgery. Remember, this guy led the league in catches in 2009 despite missing 3 games with injury. Branch, meanwhile, had a career rebirth after being traded back to the Patriots from Seattle. They also can go to a two-tight end set with two talented 2^nd year tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

In the backfield, it’s anyone’s guess. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead did a capable job with the running game last year, with BJGE as the bruising back and Woodhead as the shifty speed back and pass catcher. They were rewarded by the Patriots drafting Shane Vereen (a shifty speed back and pass catcher) and Stevan Ridley (a bruising back).

All in all, I don’t think the Patriots will be worse on the ground than last year and the running game is hardly the reason this offense goes. This offense will certainly go and the defense, though it lacks stars, is heavy on quality role players and I trust Belichick to design a scheme that suits everyone’s strengths. I’m not sure they’ll go 14-2 again, but they’ll once again be among the league’s best teams, at least in the regular season. However, none of that will matter to them if they can’t get it done in the playoffs once again.

Quarterback: A

Running backs: C+

Receiving corps: B

Offensive line: A-

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: B

Pass coverage: B+

Coaching: A

Projection: 14-2 1^st in the AFC East