The Seahawks are in a rare position this season. They are likely going to get a top ten pick as they are now 5-9 and recent lost at home to the previously 1-12 Buccaneers, but they already have a good veteran quarterback. For this reason, I believe they should take one, which may seem counter intuitive, but makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

Quarterback is single most cerebral position in football. You have to learn the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and develop good chemistry with receivers on option routes. You have to be able to learn and read complex coverages and read complex blitzes. For the most part, college quarterbacks don’t have to do this as much. A college quarterback, no matter who they are, needs a redshirt year, a year where they are nothing but a backup in case of injury, a year, where they can learn the offense, the routes, the receivers, the coverages, the blitzes, all of those things, in order to fully be a good quarterback in this league. Some require two.

However, with so many quarterbacks, especially elite quarterback prospects, being drafted early out of “we need this guy now” instead of, “well, we’ll need him in a year or two when he’s ready because we already have a decent veteran,” they lose this ability to have this necessary redshirt year. The list of guys thrown out into action in a major way in their rookie year include Joey Harrington (14 games his rookie year), David Carr (16 games), Patrick Ramsey (9 games), Kyle Boller (11 games) Byron Leftwich (15 games), Alex Smith (9 games), Vince Young (15 games).

Speaking of Smith and Young, both are doing decent jobs this season, in fact, of the three guys who have established themselves as guys who look like longterm starters in this league, Smith and Young are two of them. You might think this disproves my argument, but it actually strengths. Vince Young and Alex Smith both sucked when they came out. In two years before being benched, Vince Young threw 21 touchdowns to 30 picks and in three years before being benched, Alex Smith threw 19 touchdowns to 31 picks. However, after finally getting benched and finally sitting for a year plus, both have come back with good seasons and are establishing themselves as starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

The other of the three quarterbacks who have established themselves as starting quarterbacks this year is Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins. Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft and had the luxury of sitting behind veteran Chad Pennington for more than a year. When Pennington got hurt this year, Henne stepped in and has a decent quarterback rating of 73.9 and more importantly is 7-4 as a starter.

Need further proof? Let’s take a look at all of the quarterbacks who are established as starters in this leagues.

Chad Henne- See above.

Tom Brady- Brady sat his entire rookie season behind veteran Drew Bledsoe after being drafted in the 6th round of the 2000 draft with the exception of one game he played where he went 1 for 3 for 6 yards. He took over for Bledsoe after he got hurt in 2001 and has led the Pats to 3 Super Bowls wins since.

Mark Sanchez- Sanchez is a 2009 1st round pick who started his first game as a rookie this season. Its tough to make a decision on him yet, but he has 12 touchdowns to 20 picks this season so he has struggled.

Carson Palmer- A perfect example of the redshirt year working to someone’s advantage, Carson Palmer didn’t make a throw his rookie year behind Comeback Player of the Year Jon Kitna, but took over in his 2nd season and has a career 88.4 QB rating with 126 touchdowns to 78 picks.

Ben Roethlisberger- Made 15 starts his rookie season, so he’s a bit of an exception, but he’s unorthodox style of play makes him an exception to many things. Plus, it should be noted that he only threw 295 passes his rookie year so he was used conservatively.

Joe Flacco- Started all 16 games as a rookie making him a bit of an exception, but he’s still young and he has not extremely impressive so far. Plus, he plays in a conservative offense with a strong running game and a good defense to support him.

Peyton Manning- Started every game of his career making him an exception, but Manning is so good that he’s an exception to most things.

David Garrard- Played in 4 games as a rookie after being drafted in the 4th round of the 2002 draft, but only played in 17 games in his first 4 seasons, making 296 throws in that span of time so he definitely had plenty of sitting and watching time. He took over as the team’s starting quarterback midway through 2006 and hasn’t looked back, with a completion percentage of 60% or more in all 4 season since then and 56 touchdowns to 32 picks in that stretch of time.

Vince Young- See above

Matt Schaub- Spent 3 years on the bench behind Michael Vick throwing a limited 161 throws in those years, before being traded to the Texans in 2007 where he has been the starter ever since.

Phillip Rivers- Another perfect example, Rivers made 30 throws in his first two years as Drew Brees’ backup and then took over as the starter when Brees left to go to New Orleans and has started every game ever since and is one of the winningest starters in the NFL with a record of 44-18 as a starter.

Kyle Orton- Rushed into the starting lineup thanks to an injury to Rex Grossman during his rookie season and made 15 starts with a hideous 59.7 QB rating in those starts. Was not heard from until 2007 when he started 3 more games and then took over as the Bears’ starter in 2008 and then the Broncos starter in 2009 after being traded for Jay Cutler. His QB ratings for the last two years respectively are 79.6 and 89.2.

Matt Cassel- Didn’t make a start until week 2 of his 4th season after Tom Brady got hurt in 2008. He had a good 89.4 QB rating in 2008 and then was traded to Kansas City after Brady returned. He is currently the Chiefs starter and has a mediocre QB rating of 71.1, though he does have very little talent around him to help him out.

Tony Romo- Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003 with the Cowboys but did not see any game action until 2006 when he took over for veteran Drew Bledsoe. Romo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league since and is a two time Pro Bowler.

Donovan McNabb- Another exception, McNabb took over as starting quarterback midway through his rookie year and has had a successful career since, with the exception of a small history of injuries.

Eli Manning- Played sparingly in his rookie year, throwing 197 passes behind injury prone starter Kurt Warner and then took over in 2005 as the starter. He struggled early in his career, especially late in the season and at home in the Meadowlands, but worked through that and won the Super Bowl in 2008.

Jason Campbell- Took over as starter of the Redskins 9 games into his 2nd season and has been statistically alright with a career QB rating of 82.2. He is actually having a career season with a QB rating of 87.0 this season, but because his team is not winning and his 5 year rookie contract expires this offseason, he may have to look for another job this offseason, though he has proven he deserves one.

Brett Favre- Threw 4 passes in his rookie season in Atlanta, then was traded to Green Bay directly after his rookie season. And the rest is history.

Aaron Rodgers- While Brett Favre was making that history, Aaron Rodgers was sitting and watching for three years. When Favre retired and then signed with the Jets in 2008, Rodgers took over for Favre and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has certainly been a lot better than fellow 2005 1st round pick Alex Smith, who was drafted ahead of him and thrown into action during his rookie season.

Jay Cutler- Took over for Jake Plummer 11 games into his rookie season, and made 5 starts. However, with 43 picks over the last two seasons, even though he is an established starter, its safe to say that he’s not so good at learning the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and developing good chemistry with receivers on option routes, learning and reading complex coverages and reading complex blitzes. Just saying

Matt Stafford- Its too early to make a judgment on the 2009 1st round pick, who made his first start during week 1 of his rookie season, but throwing 20 picks to 13 touchdowns, despite throwing 5 touchdowns in one game against the lowly Browns, is not a good start.

Drew Brees- Played in one game in his rookie season with the Chargers and took over as the starting quarterback for Doug Flutie in 2002. Though he lost his starting job for a few weeks in 2003 and never established himself as a dominant starting quarterback in San Diego, after he left the Chargers for the Saints four years ago, Brees has been one of the best in the business.

Matt Ryan- Ryan started every game in his rookie season, but had a lot of help from a strong running game, a decent defense, and a weak schedule as he put up a 87.7 QB rating. This year, still the starter, he has struggled some, as their running game hasn’t been as strong nor has their defense, and their schedule is one of the toughest in the NFL. He has a quarterback rating of 79.1 this season and is averaging a lowly 6.4 YPA and I believe he is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Josh Freeman- Hasn’t started every game as a rookie this season, but has started 7 games, and has 9 touchdowns to 14 picks, so, even though its still early, Freeman’s career has not gotten off to the best start.

Kurt Warner- Signed with the Rams as a 27 year old undrafted free agent in 1998, made 11 throws in his “rookie” year, and took over as their starter in 1999, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. He has had his ups and downs since, but has made two more trips to the Super Bowl, and is a borderline Hall of Famer at this point with 207 touchdowns to 138 picks and a career 93.7 QB rating.

Matt Hasselbeck- Spent a year on the practice squad and 2 years backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay before being traded to the Seahawks, where he took over for started Trent Dilfer in 2002. He has made three Pro Bowls in his career as a starter, which could be ending soon and hopefully a good young quarterback is waiting on the bench for when he leaves Seattle or retires.

Alex Smith- See above

To make sense of all that I have broken it down into categories and categorized each player in one of those categories.

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an average career as a starter: 2

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an above average career as a starter: 3

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an average career as a starter: 1

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an above average career as a starter: 5       

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an average career as a starter: 4

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an above average career as a starter: 6

Still a rookie, too soon to tell: 3

Started a majority of their rookie season, sat for a period of more than a year after that, then regained a starter’s job: 3

Of the 24 non-rookie established starting quarterbacks profiled, 10 did not take over as starter until midway through their 2nd season or later, and another 6 did not start until late in their rookie season or early in their 2nd. 8 did start the majority of their rookie season, but of those 8, 2 are currently 2nd year players and 3 completely sucked and were later benched before regaining their job. The other three, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning, started a majority of their rookie season and hit very few speed bumps in their career and are now Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks, but they are extremely rare (3 out of 24). All 3 rookie starters this season have more picks than touchdowns showing that this trend could be continuing.

With drafting quarterbacks, the right move is the counter-intuitive one. Draft them when you don’t need them, or before you need them. Seattle is likely going to have a top ten pick this year and with current starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck being 34 years old, now is a perfect time for them to draft a big upside project quarterback, like Ryan Mallett, who I have said has Peyton Manning esque upside given the right amount of time and good coaching. Sam Bradford, who has the skills, but needs to learn a pro style offense, is also a good fit.