I’m going to do a little bit more number crunching for NFL Quarterbacks to see if sitting them their first year is the right way to go. My last quarterback number crunching blog showed that the majority of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL sat their first year before getting to the place where they are now. Today, we’re going to take a look at every first round pick of a quarterback from 2000-2006 (we need at least three years to judge a quarterback) and look at how their career panned out and hopefully answer some of the why they panned out or didn’t pan out as an NFL signal caller.

Chad Pennington- 2000 18^th pick overall by the New York Jets

Only made three appearances in his first two years in the league before taking over as the starting quarterback week 5 of 2002. He would impress in his early years as a starter and get a huge contract extension, but that extension would be a bit of a mistake on the Jets part because Pennington dealt with a lot of injuries during that time span. He did win comeback player of the year in 2006 and again in 2008, after being cut by the Jets and going to the Dolphins, and also finished second in MVP voting in 2008 after leading the Dolphins to a playoff appearance only one year after they went 1-15. He also is the NFL’s all time leader in completion percentage with 66% so despite injuries, Pennington has proved to be a great and tough quarterback. After getting hurt again in 2009 and going down for the season, Pennington has a chance to win his 3^rd NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2010, though it likely won’t be in Miami.

Michael Vick- 2001 1^st pick overall by the Atlanta Falcons

Vick played sparingly in his first year in the NFL, playing in 8 games and making 2 starts, as he was regarded as a bit of a project out of Virginia Tech because of his unorthodox style of play. Though he never became known as a guy with a great arm, 75.9 career QB rating, he quickly became known as one of the more exciting and unique players in the NFL, a guy who can do so many different things in so many different ways from the quarterback position. He has 3954 career rushing yards on 553 carries and 23 touchdowns on the ground and made the Pro Bowl in 2002, his first year as a starter. He would also make the Pro Bowl in 2004 and 2005. He signed a record contract extension in 2004, but this extension would proof to be a mistake, as Vick was suspended and jailed throughout the 2007 and 2008 seasons for dog fighting. He is currently a backup quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles and has looked decent in small amounts of playing time. He is expected to get a shot at a starting job somewhere in the league next season.

David Carr- 2002 1^st pick overall by the Houston Texans

He made all 16 starts at quarterback for the expansion Houston Texans in 2002 and did not fare well with a 62.8 QB rating. He was also sacked an NFL record 76 times and lost 21 fumbles on the season. He next four years weren’t much better. He would finish his 5 year career in Houston with 59 touchdowns to 65 picks and a career record of 23-53. He would be cut following the 2006 season and replaced with Matt Schaub. He spent 2007 as a backup for the Carolina Panthers and 2008 and 2008 as a backup for the New York Giants. He has made 4 starts, all in 2007 with Carolina after Jake Delhomme went down with an injury, since being cut, but in those starts he has shown no signs of improvement.

Joey Harrington- 2002 3^rd overall by the Detroit Lions

Harrington made 14 starts in his rookie season for the Lions and had a miserable season, barely completing 50% of his passes, and throwing for 16 picks to 12 touchdowns. His next three years as the starter in Detroit, not much better. His record as a starter in Detroit was 18-37 and after the 2005 season he was shipped in Miami to backup veteran Daunte Culpepper, for a mere 6^th round pick. Harrington was forced back into the starting lineup in 2006 after Culpepper got hurt and did have a record of 5-6 as a starter that year, which isn’t awful. However, his 68.5% QB rating for the year, plus one game where he QB rating was 0.0, is awful. He was not resigned after 2006 and then signed a 2 year 6 million dollar deal to be the 3^rd string quarterback in Atlanta behind Michael Vick and Chris Redman. After Vick was suspended and Jailed in 2007, Harrington saw action in 12 games, but again had more interceptions than touchdowns and was cut after training camp in 2008 in a salary cap move. He had three small stints with the Saints in 2008 as a 3^rd string quarterback, but never saw game action and is currently a free agent.

Patrick Ramsey- 2002 32^nd pick overall by the Washington Redskins

He started 9 games as a rookie for Washington in 2002 with minimal success,  a 71.8 QB rating. He took over as the full time starter in 2003 and started 11 games before going down with an injury. Statistically, his 75.8 QB rating was decent in 2003, but he took so many sacks that he didn’t survive the season. He lost his starting job in 2004 to Mark Brunell, who new coach Joe Gibbs brought in. He took over for Brunell late in 2004 after Brunell got hurt and earned his starting job back for 2005, but lost it quickly after getting hurt and only threw 25 passes in 2005. He was traded to the Jets for a 6^th round pick in 2006, but only threw 1 pass as Chad Pennington’s backup. He was cut after the 2006 season and has seen minimal playing time in recent years as a backup in Denver and currently in Detroit.

Carson Palmer- 2003 1^st overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals

A perfect example of the redshirt year working to someone’s advantage, Carson Palmer didn’t make a throw his rookie year behind Comeback Player of the Year Jon Kitna, but took over in his 2nd season and has a career 88.4 QB rating with 126 touchdowns to 78 picks.

Bryon Leftwich- 2003 7^th overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals

He took over as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback in week 4 of 2003 after Mark Brunell got hurt. He had four decent years as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback with QB ratings of 73.0, 82.2, 89.3, 79.0 but lost his starting job midway through 2006 after 3 and a half seasons of injuries and an all around lack of grasp of the offense. He was brought in to backup Joey Harrington in Atlanta in 2007, but only saw action in 3 games and was cut after the season. He then went to Pittsburgh and saw little action as a backup, but won a Super Bowl ring. He then went to Tampa Bay in 2007 and saw 3 miserable starts before being benched for Josh Johnson. He has not been heard from since.

Kyle Boller- 2003 19^th overall pick by the Baltimore Ravens

Started 9 games as a rookie before getting hurt. He started 16 games in his 2^ndyear and put up average numbers with a QB rating of 70.9. He saw action in 9 games in 2005, but missed 7 games with turf toe. He lost his starting job in 2006 when Steve McNair was traded to the Ravens and only threw 55 passes in that season. When McNair got hurt in 2007, Boller took over again but 10 picks to 9 touchdowns and a 75.1 QB rating were not enough. After the 5-11 Ravens fired coach Brian Billick, Boller was out as starter and replaced with rookie Joe Flacco. Boller did not make a throw in 2008 because of a season ending injury and then was cut after the season and went to St. Louis, were he started a few games for an injured Marc Bulger, but has been unimpressive. His quarterback rating for his career has been 70.9.

QB Rex Grossman- 2003 22^nd overall pick by the Chicago Bears

Grossman only saw action in 8 games in his first 3 years, but that was not by coach’s choice. He had two major injuries in 2004 and 2005. He looked fairly bad in minimal action in his first three years throwing 4 touchdowns to 6 picks, but was named the Bears starting quarterback in 2006 once fully healthy. He started all 16 games and took the Bears to a Super Bowl, but statistically was very poor with a 54.6% completion percentage and a QB rating of 73.9. He lost his starting job several times to veteran Brian Griese in 2007 and in 2008 was the clear cut #2 quarterback after losing his starting job to Kyle Orton. He is currently a backup for the Houston Texans and has a career QB rating of 69.5.

QB Eli Manning- 2004 1^st overall pick by the San Diego Chargers (traded to New York Giants)

Eli Manning- Played sparingly in his rookie year, throwing 197 passes behind injury prone starter Kurt Warner and then took over in 2005 as the starter. He struggled early in his career, especially late in the season and at home in the Meadowlands, but worked through that and won the Super Bowl in 2008.

QB Phillip Rivers- 2004 4^th overall pick by the New York Giants (traded to San Diego Chargers)

Another perfect example, Rivers made 30 throws in his first two years as Drew Brees’ backup and then took over as the starter when Brees left to go to New Orleans and has started every game ever since and is one of the winningest starters in the NFL with a record of 44-18 as a starter.

Ben Roethlisberger- 2004 11^th overall pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Made 15 starts his rookie season, so he’s a bit of an exception, but his unorthodox style of play makes him an exception to many things. Plus, it should be noted that he only threw 295 passes his rookie year so he was used conservatively.

JP Losman- 2004 22^nd overall pick by the Buffalo Bills

Was slated to be the starter his rookie year, but broke his leg and only saw 5 passes that year as a backup. He took over as the starting quarterback in 2005 making 9 starts, but a sub 50% completion percentage got him benched late in the season. He was much improved in his 3^rd year with a QB rating of 84.9, but didn’t lead the Bills to the playoffs, so there was still some concerns about him. The Bills drafted Trent Edwards in the 3^rd round in 2007 and Edwards took over when Losman got hurt in 2007. Edwards was named the starting quarterback in 2008, while Losman played sparingly, 104 throws, as his backup. He became a free agent after 2008 and signed midseason with the Oakland Raiders to be their 3^rd string quarterback behind Charlie Frye and JaMarcus Russell following the injury of starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. He also spent some time in the UFL. His NFL career QB rating is 75.6 but he has more picks, 34, than touchdowns, 33.

Alex Smith- 2005 1^st overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers

He saw nine games of action in his first season in the NFL, but was never really named the starter plus had to deal with an injury as Smith was one of the worst statistical starting quarterbacks in the NFL in 2005, completing only 50.9% of his passes and throwing 11 picks to one single touchdown. His QB rating, though limited over 165 throws, was a horrendous 40.8. However, Smith was still named the starter for 2006 and had a decent season in 16 starts, with a QB rating of 74.8, but he threw for as many picks as touchdowns, and didn’t win a lot of games. Smith missed time with injury in 2007 and it appeared that the injury really affected his play on the field as he had the 2^nd worst QB rating of any starter in the league at 57.2. He was benched for journeyman JT O’Sullivan to start the 2008 season and did not see any game action. After more than a year on the bench, Smith took back his starting job this year from struggling veteran Shaun Hill and with a career high QB rating of 80.2, he looks poised to keep his job into 2010.

Aaron Rodgers- 2005 24^th overall pick by the Green Bay Packers

While Brett Favre was history, Aaron Rodgers was sitting and watching for three years. When Favre retired and then signed with the Jets in 2008, Rodgers took over for Favre and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has certainly been a lot better than fellow 2005 1st round pick Alex Smith, who was drafted ahead of him and thrown into action during his rookie season.

Jason Campbell- 2005 25^th overall pick by the Washington Redskins

Took over as starter of the Redskins 9 games into his 2nd season and has been statistically alright with a career QB rating of 82.2. He is actually having a career season with a QB rating of 87.0 this season, but because his team is not winning and his 5 year rookie contract expires this offseason, he may have to look for another job this offseason, though he has proven he deserves one.

Vince Young- 2006 3^rd overall pick by the Tennessee Titans

Made 13 starts as a rookie in 2006, but his numbers in 2006 and 2007 as a starter were not pretty as he threw 21 touchdowns to 30 picks and had respective QB ratings of 66.7 and 71.1. He was the starting quarterback again in 2008, but after getting hurt in week 1 and then going missing for a few hours, the coaching staff decided it would be better for his mental health if he stayed on the bench in 2008. He regained his job after more than a year on the bench during week 8 of 2009 and has had his best season as a pro with a 85.2 QB rating and 10 touchdowns to 6 picks.

Matt Leinart- 2006 10^th overall pick by the Arizona Cardinals

Made 11 starts as a rookie, but a completion percentage of 56.8% and more picks than touchdowns plus a 4-7 record were hardly impressive. He made 5 starts in 2007, but got hurt and was placed in IR. He was given a good chance to get his starting job back in the 2008 preseason, but he lost out badly by struggling in the preseason and Kurt Warner took the job and reestablished himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. Leinart has thrown 85 passes in his last 2 years as a backup, but figures to get a shot at the starting job when Warner retires. I’m going to say that we haven’t seen enough of him for him to be any sort of data here.

Jay Cutler- 2006 11^th overall pick by the Denver Broncos

Took over for Jake Plummer 11 games into his rookie season, and made 5 starts. However, with 43 picks over the last two seasons, even though he is an established starter, its safe to say that he’s not so good at learning the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and developing good chemistry with receivers on option routes, learning and reading complex coverages and reading complex blitzes. Just saying.

Started majority of rookie year/bad career: 5

Started majority of rookie year/decent career: 0

Started majority of rookie year/great career: 1

Didn’t start majority of rookie year/bad career: 2

Didn’t start majority of rookie year/decent career: 2

Didn’t start majority of rookie year/great career: 5

Started majority of rookie year, struggled, benched for more than a year, regained starting job: 2

Not enough career action yet to be a significant addition to this study: 1

This study plus the last one I did should be eye opening. Of the 9 first round pick quarterbacks that started more than 8 games as a rookie, only three didn’t bust, two of them, looked like busts to begin with but were benched and then got that redshirt year in their 3^rd or 4^th year and then came back a better and more mature quarterback. Of the 9 first round pick quarterbacks that didn’t start more than 8 games as a rookie, from 2000-2006, 6 are still starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and one, Chad Pennington, would be if it weren’t for an injury.