Of the last 10 Super Bowl runner ups, only 3 have made the playoffs the next season, combining to win 1 playoff game. The last time a team won the Super Bowl after losing it the year before was the early 70s. The Steelers have made the Super Bowl three times in the Big Ben era. The last two times they made the Super Bowl, they missed the playoffs the following season, though both times came as Super Bowl winners.

After each of those seasons, they had a lot of offseason distractions. This offseason was no different. James Harrison got into some hot water about his comments about the commissioner, as well as some of his teammates, as did, to a lesser extent, Ryan Clark. Rashard Mendenhall got into some hot water about his comments about Osama Bin Laden. Hines Ward spent his offseason winning Dancing with the Stars, having surgery, and getting arrested for a DUI. Hell, the only prominent Steeler who didn’t find himself in hot water this offseason, surprisingly, was Ben Roethlisberger. Aside from getting married and getting criticized by his teammate, we didn’t hear too much about him this offseason.

On top of all this, in each of the last 8 seasons, one team has gone from having a first round bye to missing the playoffs. The Steelers seem like a likely candidate to do that. It’s not from a lack of talent, but sometimes it just happens, just like it did for this team in 2009 when they went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. Super Bowl runner ups frequently struggle week 1. The Steelers have to start their season in Baltimore. They could easily lose that game and never regain the division lead.

However, as I said, if they miss the playoffs, it wouldn’t be for lack of talent. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the game’s elite quarterback, especially in close games and the playoffs when it matters. One of his most useful and signature skills is his ability to take a lot of hits and not get shell shocked and also to avoid the pass rush before it gets to him. He’ll need to use those skills a lot this year once again.

2^nd year center Maurkice Pouncey is an above average player waiting to become a perennial Pro Bowler at center. They really missed him when he was hurt during the Super Bowl last year. However, other than him, their line is a mess. Max Starks was supposed to be their left tackle. He missed a lot of time last year with injuries and his replacement Jonathan Scott was terrible. However, Starks showed up to camp at 400 pounds and was cut.

Willie Colon is one of the best right tackles in the league, but he’s coming off of a season ending surgery so you never know with him. On top of that, he could play left tackle, a position where he doesn’t fit well. The other tackle is going to be 2^nd round pick Marcus Gilbert. Gilbert could be the left tackle, with Colon staying on the right side, but I don’t know if that would be that much better. Gilbert is more of a right tackle as well. At guard, both Chris Kemoeatu and Ramon Foster are both marginal players at best. They combined to give up 13 sacks last year, way more than you want your starting guards to allow.

However, Big Ben manages to find time in the pocket every year when there is none and that allows him to use his strong arm to hit his receivers deep. The best of those receivers is 3^rd year player Mike Wallace. Wallace is the fastest player in the league this side of Chris Johnson and DeSean Jackson. He averaged 21 yards per catch last year, no fluke, as he averaged 19.4 yards per catch as a rookie in 2009. He’s now heading into his 3^rd year, typically a young receiver’s best year, and with Hines Ward fading, he has a chance to put his name in there with Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson as the top receivers in the league.

Speaking of Ward, the all-time Steeler great is on his last legs. He had offseason surgery on his thumb, spent the majority of his free time on Dancing with the Stars, and got arrested for a DUI. He’s 35 and an even further decline from his worst season since 2000 seems to be on its way. It’s even possible that Ward could get passed up by Emmanuel Sanders in the starting lineup by the end of the season. Sanders surprised as a rookie down the stretch and received almost as many targets as Ward did in the 2^nd half of last season. At tight end, Heath Miller is a marginal player who had a fantastic season in 2009, but other than that has never reached 50 catches or 600 yards in a season.

Depending on their blocking, they could be able to run the ball very well this year. Rashard Mendenhall is a very talented running back, but even he couldn’t average more than 3.9 yards per carry thanks to one of the worst run blocking lines in the league. However, Mendenhall has the talent and almost never goes down on first contact. He broke 42 tackles last season, 5^th in the league, and had 826 yards after contact, 8^th in the league.

 

However, the Steelers’ defense is what wins them games and Super Bowls. In the past 3 seasons, they’ve been the #1 scoring defense twice, with 2009 being the only exception. In 2009, they ranked 11^th. Not coincidentally, that was the year they didn’t make the playoffs. In the other two seasons, they made the Super Bowl. The big difference between 2008/2010 and 2009 was Troy Polamalu, who missed most of 2009 with an injury. In fact, over the past 3 years, the Steelers allow roughly 10 points per game more when Polamalu is not in the lineup. Needless to say, him staying healthy is going to be key for this defense.

This defense does have a lot of aging players. Aaron Smith is 35. Brett Kiesel turns 33 in September. Casey Hampton turns 34 that same month. James Farrior is 36. James Harrison is 33. Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark, and Polamalu are all 30 or older. Luckily, the Steelers use a draft strategy of always building for the future on defense. Aaron Smith has gone down with injury in each of the past two seasons and they’ve had 2009 1^st round pick Evander “Ziggy” Hood to step in when necessary. I have a feeling it’ll be necessary again. If their other defensive end, Kiesel, suffers any sort of injury as well, rookie 1^st rounder Cameron Heyward would step in. If not, he’d just be a solid rotation player.

If anything happens to Farrior, we’ll get to see what 2^nd year player Stevenson Sylvester has. They also have veteran backup Larry Foote. If anything happens to Harrison, 2010 2^nd round pick Jason Worilds would step into the lineup. The only aging veteran they don’t have insurance for is Casey Hampton. They better hope he stays healthy once again because they don’t have a proven backup nose tackle on their roster.

Rounding out their front 7 are two younger guys, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons, both very, very talented players. Woodley received a 6 year 60 million dollar deal in the offseason and deserved every penny of it. With him and Harrison, their pass rush should once again be one of the league’s best.

Their pass coverage, however, is a different story. Teams like the Saints, Patriots, and Packers who were able to spread out the defense, neutralize their pass rush and force the Steelers’ defensive backs to cover were able to get the best of this defense. Not every team can spread like those 3, and the Steelers are fortunate that division rival Baltimore can’t, but what matters is that those 3 teams wrote the book on how to beat the Steelers defense and you can bet offensive coordinators everywhere, with an offseason to prepare, (remember coordinators were never locked out, they still worked this offseason) you can bet that not only have they read the book on how to beat the Steelers, they’ve memorized it.

The Steelers did resign Ike Taylor, but I think they gave him too much money given that Pittsburgh’s pass rush, as well as Troy Polamalu, have made him look better than he is. They also added cornerbacks in the 3^rd and 4^th round of the draft, Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen respectively, but rookie cornerbacks typically struggle and a lockout didn’t help.

The fact remains that Polamalu is their only above average defensive back. You can make the case for Ryan Clark, an underrated veteran free safety, but Taylor is borderline at best and Bryant McFadden doesn’t seem to be able to find his 2008 form. He went to Arizona in 2009 and struggled and then struggled last year even when he returned to the Steelers’ system.

Overall, the Steelers have a lot working against them. They’re coming off a Super Bowl loss, normally an indicator that a team is not going to make the playoffs. They’re coming off a trip to the Super Bowl, normally an indicator that the Steelers are not going to make the playoffs. They’ve had a distracting offseason. Teams know how to beat their defense and on that defense are many key players at an advanced age (by football standards).

The NFL is a league of parity and a league where the best teams don’t always make the playoffs. Every year, at least one team with a first round bye misses the playoffs the following season. Just as they missed out on the postseason in 2009, I expect them to do so this year, after losing the season opener to a talented Ravens team that won’t look back.

Quarterback: A-

Running backs: B

Receiving corps: B

Offensive line: D

Run defense: A

Pass rush: A

Pass coverage: C

Coaching: A-

Projection: 9-7 3rd in AFC North