New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: New England -2.5 (-120) 6 units

The Pats’ D sucks and now they have to face their first elite quarterback of the season. How on Earth will they stop Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham? That seems to be what everyone is saying. In fact, the Giants have become a public underdog (more on that later), with 60-70% of the action on New York, so much so that this line has shifted about a full point in the past week.

However, I think that’s far from the truth. Yes, the Patriots defense has given up the 3^rd most yards in NFL history, in front of only the 1981 Baltimore Colts (2-14) and this year’s Green Bay Packers. However, in terms of points, they actually ranked 15^th with 21.4 points per game allowed. They bend but don’t break. For reference, New York ranked 25^th with 25.0 points per game allowed, though they have been much better on their 5 game winning streak, allowing 13.4 points per game over their last 5 (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers, 49ers).

The Patriots might not have played the toughest slate of quarterbacks, but that’s not their fault. And if you look at the best quarterback they’ve played this season, you can see that they held him to 20 of 39 for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. That quarterback, some slouch named Eli Manning. The Patriots’ defense actually played really well the last time these two teams met, keeping Eli in check and holding the Giants to 24 points. I know the Giants didn’t have Hakeem Nicks in that last one, but Nicks won’t be at 100% this week either with injuries. The Pats defense has been a little better of late as well, allowing 17.0 points per game in their last 3.

I’m not saying the Patriots defense will shut out the Giants or even hold them under 20, but the Giants won’t be able to score at will like some are suggesting. I still like the Patriots if this game were to be a shootout.  They have an excellent pass rush that has gotten better in the playoffs and the Giants’ offensive line still remains a weak point. I think they’re going to have trouble scoring in the 30s. They’ve done that 5 times this season, but that was against Dallas twice, Green Bay twice, and Arizona.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have failed to score 30+ just 6 times in their last 27 regular season and postseason games. They’re actually 3-2 this year when scoring less than 30, including a win last week. Unlike last year, they can win ugly, although they’d definitely much rather play this game into the 30s. The Giants have a good defense, but I still like the Patriots’ chances of getting into the 30s.

The Giants held the Packers to 20, but that doesn’t mean they’ll do the same to the Patriots. I have 3 reasons for that. One, the Patriots’ offensive line is much better than the Packers’ was, especially if the Patriots get back Sebastian Vollmer this week, which it looks like they will. The Giants’ pass rush is amazing, but if Brady can get time, I have no doubt he can carve up a Giants secondary that is a weakness. It hasn’t been exposed of late because their pass rush has been so good, but if Brady gets time, it’s going to get exposed again.

Two, Brady’s receivers won’t drop a dozen balls like the Packers’ did. The Packers’ receivers had 8 (8!!!) dropped passes in that loss, leading to a less than stellar 26 of 46 for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick for Aaron Rodgers. If only 1 ball is dropped, you can expect something like 33 of 46 for 340 yards or so for Rodgers and that’s a totally different game. The Packers might still lose, but that’s because their defense gave up 37. The Patriots have a better pass rush so I don’t expect that to happen, especially after they held them to 24 last time.

Three, this game is indoors, which is always friendly to passing offenses. Eli Manning and company have a great passing offense and Manning has played himself into the top 5 of all quarterbacks in the league (have him 4^th behind Brady, Rodgers, and Brees, with Peyton Manning’s health being a question mark). However, as I said earlier, if this is a shootout, and I expect it to be, I think the Patriots have a very good chance of winning. Tom Brady is 9-3 ATS in domes. Meanwhile, when the line is 52 or higher in the playoffs (55 in this one), the over is 10-2 in the last 12 instances. Meanwhile, in the last 22 Super Bowls to go over the total, the favorite has won 18 times. Just something to think about.

 

Brady and company struggled last week, but I highly doubt that will happen again this week. The Ravens defense is better than the Giants and Tom Brady rarely has back to back bad games. He knows he’s lucky to have won last week and his comments after the game suggest that he could be in eff you mode this week, and when that happens, there’s no stopping him.

I have other reasons why I feel he’ll be in the eff you mode. For one, it’s the Super Bowl, obviously. Two, this is a huge revenge game. The loss in the Super Bowl to the Giants in 2008 is one of the few dents on his Hall of Fame resume so you know he badly wants to make things right, especially at his age (35 this offseason). He knows his chances are limited, even more limited to avenge it in such a fashion as beating the Giants head-to-head would. He came into the postseason in eff you mode against Denver because he knew how few chances he had left. I expect that to be only stronger this week after a bad week and against the Giants.

This is also a same season revenge game. As I’ve mentioned on several occasions, the Patriots lost to the Giants 24-20 earlier this season. As head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 11-2 ATS in same season revenge games. Brady also has to feel disrespected with most of the attention being on the Giants. Brady is 14-4 ATS in his last 18 as underdogs. He’s not an underdog here, but don’t try to tell him that with all the attention off him (much different than last time he was in the Super Bowl, when the Patriots were basically planning their Super Bowl victory parade all week). 

Going off from Brady’s ATS record as an underdog, Brady is 42-21 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 3 or fewer. He might not always blow teams out, but he wins so often, 135-43 SU as a starter, 16-5 SU in the playoffs. The Giants are also a public dog, as I already mentioned. I love betting against the public when they back an underdog. Not only is betting against the public generally a good idea (Vegas is rich for a reason), favorites tend to feel disrespected in this situation and come out playing well as a result.

Speaking one more time about their regular season matchup, the Patriots didn’t exactly play bad offensively in that one. Brady threw for 342 yards, the Patriots put up 438 yards of total offense and Brady did lead a game winning drive, he just left a little bit too much time on the clock for Eli Manning and company, who marched downfield for the winning score thanks to a crazy catch by Jake Ballard, some poor defense by the Patriots, and a questionable pass interference call.

In addition to that final drive, their problem was 4 turnovers, including 2 fumbles. I don’t expect that to happen again, especially the fumbles. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Brady threw 2 picks, but this team is not going to fumble twice again. If they put up 400+ yards again, which I expect them to for all the reasons I listed above, I think they score in the 30s once more and that’s with Rob Gronkowski’s injury.

Gronk’s injury looked bleak last week, but he’s out of the walking boot now and should be at least 80-85% for the game and 80-85% of Gronk is still impossible to single cover, especially in the red zone. An ankle injury won’t affect him so much because he doesn’t do a lot of cutting on the field. He just runs people over. Besides, no team adapts better to injuries than the Patriots.

I’m taking the Pats here, scoring in the 30s and winning by about 10 as the Giants hang in the mid 20s. I don’t expect this to be as close a game as everyone is expecting. I picked the Patriots at the beginning of the season and I’m sticking with them for all the reasons I listed above (going for back-to-back seasons of picking the correct Super Bowl winner in August). I’m making this a very large bet, because it is the Super Bowl. Normally 6 units bets are reserved for those rare “holy crap this line is too good to be true” type games (3-0 in the last 2 years on them), but I’m making one here. If this were a normal week, this would probably be a 3-4 unit bet, but it’s not so I’m going 6.