By Jim Keller
Should they run more? Should they throw the ball down the field more? How about blitzing? Yes? No? How about a new coach, offensive coordinator or both?
Those are the questions being asked in Cowboys Nation this week after the Dallas Cowboys started the season 0-2. And the Dallas braintrust – owner Jerry Jones & Co. – better find the answers soon because only three teams since who lost their first three games of the season since 1990 have advanced to the playoffs.
It won’t be easy this week against the rejuvenated Houston Texans, who have won six straight games dating to last season and have the No.1 scoring and yardage offense in the NFL.
But let’s get back to the Cowboys’ offense for now because that seems to be the overwhelming topic these first few weeks. … Let me throw out some numbers.
Forty two runs (22 in Week 1 and 20 in Week 2) and 98 passes in two games! No run longer than 12 yards, no pass completion longer than 30 yards. Twelve of the 42 runs have been for two yards or less. Since 2007, teams that ran the ball more than 22 times have won 92 percent of the games.
Therefore, the percentages seem to favor more running, and even though the offensive line is banged up, Dallas did average 4.8 yards per carry last season, second highest in the NFL, and was seventh in yards rushing.
Five of the 22 runs last week in the 27-20 loss to Chicago went for negative yards, eight for two yards or less. And that was after Marion Barber rushed for 22 yards on the first three plays for Dallas. Interesting note from ESPNDallas.com: On first downs, Dallas is running 31 percent of the time, 31st in the NFL.
Because of the No. 2 passing rank in the NFL after two weeks, the Cowboys rank fourth in total offense, yet Romo & Co. have engineered just two touchdowns despite 27 first downs and 16 minutes more time of possession
Of Romo’s 98 passes, only 13 have been thrown 15 yards down the field – just over 13 percent.. Houston QB Matt Schaub has thrown 25 percent of his passes at least 15 yards down the field, and despite 29 fewer throws than Romo, he has just 52 fewer yards.
Romo is second in passing yards (656) and has been sacked just once but his adjusted yards per attempt is 5.7 which ranks 10th and his win probability of -.44 is 30th. Now I’m not sure how all that is calculated, but it doesn’t bode well for the Dallas offense. He ranked sixth and ninth, respectively, in these categories a season ago.
Romo is the eighth player since 1920 to throw 98 passes in the first two games and first since Tom Brady. These QBs combined to go 5-11. And Romo had the highest completion percentage and second-highest passer rating (83.5) but still lost twice.
All of these numbers indicate that Dallas needs to run a little more, pass a little less, and challenge vertically if for nothing else other than to open up a little room for the running game and underneath stuff.
Despite all the big-play targets, this Cowboys’ offense reminds me most of the early-80s when Danny White took over for Roger Staubach.
White had some weapons around him and put up some pretty good numbers, but Dallas always fell short because they couldn’t convert enough with its ball-control offense. White or somebody else always seemed to make a negative play at the worst time. This is sort of reminiscent of Romo and this cast of characters. They have committed 18 penalties, trail 4-0 in the turnover battle and make costly mistakes or bad throws on key downs.
Dallas should get something done on offense if it can neutralize NFL sack leader Mario Williams (4) on Sunday. Houston has surrendered 422 yards per game – most in the NFL – and Donovan McNabb threw for over 400 yards last week for Washington, more than double what McNabb threw for against the Cowboys in Week 1.
While the Dallas defense held Washington to two field goals in a 13-7 loss on Week 1, Chicago’s Jay Cutler dissected the Dallas blitz for 277 yards and three TDs. After Cutler was sacked once and repeatedly dropped to the turf in the Bears’ first three possessions, Cutler started dumping passes into the vacated blitzing linebackers territories and Chicago engineered three scoring drives and 157 yards on its last three possessions of the half. Dallas, which has relied on pressuring QBs with linebacker and safety blitzes, curiously dialed down the pressure but to no avail.
Cutler, who is known for going down the field, was 18 of 21 with three touchdowns for a 143 passer rating on throws of 10 yards or less.
While holding both Washington and Chicago under 100 yards rushing, Dallas will need to improve upon its totals of two sacks and zero turnovers forced to keep the Texans at bay.
Last week Schaub rallied Houston from a 27-10 deficit with 332 yards passing after intermission, and his 497 total was a franchise record. He threw a TD pass to Kevin Walter on the last play of the third quarter and hooked up with Andre Johnson on a 34-yard TD on a fourth down Hail Mary with 2:03 remaining to force overtime. Neil Rackers’ 35-yard field goal with 3:04 left in the extra session gave Houston its first win in seven OT contests.
Schaub completed 38 of 52 balls for three touchdowns. He was intercepted once and sacked five times. Johnson and Walter combined for 23 catches and 302 yards, creating a big challenge Sunday for Dallas corners Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins who was carted off the field in the fourth quarter last week with a bruised knee but is expected to play.
Houston is also dangerous on the ground with Arian Foster, who rushed for a franchise-record 231 yards in a Week 1 win over Indianapolis and added 69 rushing and passing last week.
The Houston offense will be without left tackle Duane Brown, a 2008 first-round draft pick suspended this week for four games for violating the league’s performing enhancing drug policy.
The clubs have split two previous games. Houston won 19-10 here in 2002 for a franchise-first victory and Dallas picked up a 34-6 win four years later, but the Texans thoroughly handled the Cowboys 23-7 in a preseason contest when both teams played their regulars for most of the contest.
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