The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning had offseason surgery and will miss most of if not all of the preseason. The last time that happened, he struggled early in the season. The Texans play the Colts week 1, a game they won last year. If they win again, they might not look back. They could take this division.

Offense has never been the problem for this team. With Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, they might have the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league. They also have quite possibly the league’s most underrated offensive line. They’ll be fine offensively and I’ll get back to that later. First, I want to focus on their defense.

Their defense was bad last year. It was really bad last year. Like really, really, really bad. They allowed the most passing yards in the league and were 2^nd in passing yards per attempt. They allowed the 3^rd most total yards and the 4^th most points. The only thing that wasn’t terrible was their run defense, ranked 11^th. However, this is a passing league and if you can’t stop the pass, you won’t make the playoffs.

The Texans have fixed that pass defense this offseason. They brought in two starting caliber defensive backs, in the offseason, Danieal Manning and Johnathan Joseph. Joseph was the market’s #2 cornerback behind Nnamdi Asomugha. He is extremely talented and will definitely add to this pass defense. As for the other 2 starting spots in the secondary, 2010 2^nd round pick Kareem Jackson will be the #2 cornerback. He was very, very, very terrible last year, but rookie cornerbacks tend to struggle. He’s talented and I expect him to bounce back, especially now that he’s not the #1 guy anymore.

At free safety, Glover Quin will start. He makes the move from cornerback to free safety and he can’t possibly be as bad at free safety as he was at corner, though that’s not saying much. If he does badly, the mediocre Troy Nolan would take over at free safety, so this position is definitely still a weakness. 2^nd round rookie Brandon Harris will be the nickel corner. I had a first round grade on him, so naturally I thought it was a steal when they got him in the late 2^nd. Another rookie, Rashard Carmichael, as well as Brice McCain, a 3^rd year player, provide depth at the position.

Now let’s look some more at the front 7. DeMeco Ryans is back at middle linebacker. That’s a huge plus. This team was 4-2 when he got hurt last year and finished 6-10. I’m not saying his injury had everything to do with that, but he’s definitely a valuable member of this defense. He’ll line up inside next to stud linebacker Brian Cushing. At rush linebacker, the Texans added Brooks Reed in the 2^nd round of the draft, another good pick. He’ll compete with 2009 2^nd round pick Connor Barwin for the starting job. Barwin is largely an unknown commodity. He didn’t play much as a rookie and went down for the season with an injury week 1 last season. Still, having Barwin back is a plus. He and Reed should see plenty of the field, no matter who wins the starting job.

At the other rush linebacker position, they have Mario Williams. Because he’s about 285 pounds, many doubt Williams ability to play rush linebacker, a position where you need speed and pass coverage ability in addition to being a good pass rusher. However, Williams has plenty of speed. Remember he ran a 4.6 at The Combine coming out.

Plus, he’s not playing any old rush linebacker position. He’s playing rush linebacker in Wade Phillips’ defense. This works to his advantage for several reasons. One, Wade Phillips asks his rush linebackers to drop into coverage less than almost any other coordinator out there. Just ask DeMarcus Ware. Ware is terrible in pass coverage, but he’s still frequently mentioned among the best defensive players in the league. He has Wade Phillips to thank for that.

Two, while Wade Phillips does use a base 3-4, he uses sub packages more than just about any other coordinator in the league. Most of these sub packages use 4 man lines, in which Phillips will line up at his old spot from 2010. Tamba Hali made the successful move to a 3-4 as a rush linebacker at 275 pounds. Williams can do the same at 285 pounds in a Wade Phillips scheme that will highlight his strengths and mask his weaknesses.

The defensive line might be the most troubling part of this defense. They added JJ Watt with the 11^th pick, yet another talented rookie coming in, but he is still just a rookie, coming off of a lockout shortened offseason. At nose tackle, Earl Mitchell is penciled in as the starter. He only weighs about 290-295 pounds. Wade Phillips has had success with smaller nose tackles before, particularly Jay Ratliff in Dallas. However, Ratliff was still about 10-15 pounds heavier than Mitchell. If Mitchell can’t hold down the job, the mediocre Shaun Cody would start.

Opposite JJ Watt, things are a little better than at the nose, but not much. Antonio Smith is a better fit for the 3-4 than the 4-3, but he’s still a borderline talent. He could be easily upgraded. However, this defense is going to be, at the very least, average. Add in DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin back from injury, Brooks Reed, JJ Watt, and Brandon Harris through the draft, and Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency, that’s a lot of talent coming in.

Kareem Jackson will be better. Glover Quin probably will be better. They add a legitimate defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips and he’s instituting a 3-4 defense, important because Peyton Manning’s struggles against 3-4s in his career are well documented. If this defense is average and the offense keeps doing what it’s doing, they can easily win this division, provided they beat the Colts week 1. I think this is the year they make the playoffs.

 

Now, onto that offense. You all know about Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, as well as other talented receivers like Kevin Walter, James Jones, and Owen Daniels. However, what about that offensive line? Duane Brown (left tackle), Wade Smith (left guard), Chris Myers (center), Matt Brisiel (right guard), Eric Winston (right tackle). They might not be the biggest names, but they work well as a unit, they don’t miss games, and they fit the zone blocking scheme like a glove. They allowed a mere 27 sacks last year and they were one of the best run blocking lines in the league, helping Arian Foster lead the league in rushing.

A lot of people are doubting Arian Foster. He is a one year wonder, they say, or he will really miss talented fullback Vonta Leach, they say. However, the offensive line was just as big a part of his success and he’s very talented in his own right. He’ll be fine, even with Lawrence Vickers replacing Vonta Leach. Plus, he’s a solid pass catcher.

As I said before, if this defense can be even average, I think this team can win the division. In order to win the division, they’ll have to beat the Colts week 1, but I think they have a very good chance to do that, and even if they don’t, I think they can sneak in as a wild card. I have a little bit higher of a projection for them. Every year, one team that didn’t make the playoffs the year before gets a first round bye. I think this is that team this year. There was a point when the Saints were a team that couldn’t win anything. They won the Super Bowl the next year.

Quarterback: B+

Running backs: A

Receiving corps: B+

Offensive line: A-

Run defense: C+

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: C-

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC South