Todd McShay: The NFL Draft is one big crapshoot? Not if you listen to me.

Yeah, because if you listen to him, you’re sure to fail. This guy is wrong every year. He doesn’t get to have a cocky sounding title like that. Some more of his brilliant predictions this year, Jimmy Clausen falling to the 2^nd round (because he’s the next JP Losman, apparently), Gerald McCoy going #1 over Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre Paul going #3 to the Bucs. Let’s see what brilliance he gives us in this addition of ESPN the Magazine (February 22^nd 2010, Page 13)

He starts off saying all the right things, focus on the top four positions, though he puts cornerback 3rd before pass rusher which seems a little backwards, but not too bad. Then he talks about how the top 5 in QB rating in the NFL last year were all drafted in the top 33, a very good point, and then he gives us this…

“So while All-America safety Eric Berry is tempting, the St. Louis Rams shouldn’t think twice about snatching a defensive tackle, Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, at No. 1. A combo of Suh and, say, LSU safety Chad Jones, will win more games than Berry, and, say Dan Williams will.”

Gotta love it. Right in the middle of telling us the importance of taking quarterbacks, left tackles, cornerbacks, and pass rushers (which normally means defensive ends, not defensive tackles as McShay seems to think), he tells us that the Rams should take a defensive tackle. Yes, that first option of Suh and Jones will win you more games than Berry and Williams, but most likely it’ll be a difference of like 5 wins to 4. At the end of the day, you still suck because Marc Bulger is your quarterback. 

But wait, there’s more

“Savvy GMs know the least-seen part of a player’s combine performance, the personal interview, is the most important gauge.”

Really? Now, I’m no Al Davis, but 40 times and measurables do matter. But apparently according to McShay, it doesn’t matter if you can run, if you can make up some nice scripted answers to interview questions. 

“Maualuga had a solid rookie season (63 tackles), but it is now clear why he was the third USC linebacker drafted in 2009.”

Huh? I’m normally would give McShay the benefit of the doubt and just assume he was referring to the fact that the other two USC linebackers had better rookie seasons, or maybe that Maualuga was charged with DUI late in the season, but McShay doesn’t mention Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing anywhere or a DUI anywhere so I’m just going to assume McShay thinks that a good rookie season proves a player is bad. How does America have a 10% unemployment rate, yet this guy has a job?

“But what that team will know is that [Derrick] Morgan is far more versatile and game aware than his counterpart (referring to Jason Pierre Paul), who hasn’t show much more than pure pass rushing ability.”

First of all, if you think Morgan is the better player, why do you have JPP going 3^rd over Morgan? You’re not smart enough to be questioning the Buccaneers intelligence and saying that they will make the wrong pick, which you didn’t say in your mock. Second of all, where was this pure pass rushing ability? JPP had 5.5 sacks last year, his only year in Division I. I don’t care what he did in JuCo, that’s JuCo. What did he do against good competition. How is he going to dominant the NFL if he didn’t dominate Division I. Morgan and his 12.5 sacks is clearly the better overall player and the better pass rusher.

“Buffalo fans had best hope their team has learned its lesson as it debates whether to reach for QB Jimmy Clausen at 9.”

First of all, Clausen won’t be available at 9 because, unlike McShay, most NFL drafters know what they are doing. The top 8 consists of 3 teams that already have franchise quarterbacks, 1 team whose owner is too busy being dead to draft the right player, and 4 teams that are going to be looking for quarterbacks and when teams need quarterbacks and there is one available, most of the time they take him. There aren’t 4 elite quarterbacks in this draft class so there is no way Clausen falls to the Bills. Second, if he does, they would be idiotic to pass on him, like Todd McShay idiotic.

He follows that quote up with this

“I see him as the No. 28 prospect in the draft.”

Behind who?!?! You mean to tell me there’s 27 players in this draft class better than a guy who put up amazing stats in a pro style offense despite playing through injury and playing with not a lot of talent around him. If so, this is the best draft class in the history of the world. Todd McShay does this every year. In 2008 he said he wouldn’t use a top 15 pick on Matt Ryan. One year later, Ryan had led the once 4-12 Falcons to the playoffs. He hates like every single quarterback prospect. If it were up to him, the forward pass would not exist. He just seems way too afraid to take any quarterback in the first round, but if you don’t there’s a good chance you just aren’t going to win at all.

And to finish things off

“A QB like Colt McCoy or Tony Pike will be waiting for them later.”

Yeah, there’s a reason for that. They will be waiting there for them because they aren’t franchise quarterbacks. History shows that in the past decade, 2 quarterbacks that have been drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round have made the Pro Bowl. That’s out of 24 quarterbacks. If history continues, that would mean a quarterback available in the 2^nd or 3^rd round has a 2 in 24 chance of making the Pro Bowl and a 1 in 24 chance of winning you a Super Bowl. Those odds might not stay true every year, but I don’t like those odds if I need a quarterback. The odds are much better to take a quarterback in the first round. In fact, of the 16 quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd from 2000-2006, 16 quarterbacks in total, 4 of them have thrown more touchdowns than picks in their careers. I don’t like those odds. I don’t like anything near those odds. I don’t like waiting until the 2^nd round to take a quarterback. For more on taking a quarterback in the 1^st versus not, click here.

One final thing, stats don’t say it all, but this is Clausen vs. McCoy and Pike this season.

Clausen: 289 for 425 (68.0) for 3722 yards (8.8) 28 TDs 4 INTs

Pike: 211 for 338 (62.4) for 2520 yards (7.5) 29 TDs 6 INTs

McCoy: 332 for 470 (70.6) for 3521 yards (7.5) 27 TDs 12 INTs

Keep in mind, Clausen was doing that in a Pro Style offense with half the talent around him that Pike and McCoy had. Yet he still had a higher completion percentage, by far, than Pike, and he averaged more than a yard more per attempt and had a QB/INT ratio that is double McCoy’s and higher than Pike’s. All this with a toe injury.

I will remain puzzled as to why Todd McShay has a job with ESPN until the day he no longer does. Mel Kiper is clearly the better ESPN NFL Draft analyst. McShay is just wrong, all the time. Professional stupidity of McShay’s caliber should be illegal.