The idea of the NFL Draft order is simple. By rotating the order in which teams finished last year, the worst teams are allowed to pick the best players in hopes of becoming better. However, with the ridiculous amounts of money top 10 picks have been demanding in recent years, does drafting in the top 10 actually make you a better team? As I was writing about how no top-10 pick is a safe pick, it got me wondering, as whole, how many top ten picks go on to be something great in the NFL.

Below is a chart with draft year (2000-2011) and how many of the top ten picks went on to make the Pro Bowl, and how many went on to make multiple Pro Bowls.

Year	Pro Bowl	Multiple Pro Bowls
2011	4	0
2010	2	0
2009	1	0
2008	3	1
2007	3	3
2006	5	3
2005	4	1
2004	7	5
2003	6	6
2002	4	3
2001	7	5
2000	6	3

4 made the Pro Bowl this year, which is impressive for rookies. Only 2 top 10 picks from 2010 made the Pro Bowl, but I’ll cut them some slack for now.  1 and 3 in 2008 and 2009, which is low, as you’d expect players to break out by their 3rd or 4th year. 3 in 2008, that’s also low. 5 of the 10 from 2006, but that’s not as good as it seems, when you consider that only two of those made the Pro Bowl multiple times and one of those repeaters is Vince Young, arguably the worst repeat Pro Bowler in NFL history.

2005 is even worse 4 Pro Bowls, only one of whom has made multiple Pro Bowls. 2004 looks good, but remember that is regarded as the best draft class of the decade. 2003 looks decent also, but again not great. If in a good year you get 60% conversion rate from top 10 pick to repeat Pro Bowl, it’s not a good sign. 2002 is another step back and even 2001 and 2000 weren’t good, 2001 being even worse when you consider two of those repeaters were Mike Vick (who spent 2 years in jail) and Leonard Davis (who made 3 Pro Bowls at a different position than he was drafted at, with a different team than the one that drafted him).

Top 10 picks are expected to be repeat Pro Bowlers, yet only 30-50% of them, actually become that. Simply put, all of the scouting people do, we still have very little idea whether or not a player will bust. There really is no such thing as a safe pick.

Now, Pro Bowls can be a bit of an arbitrary stat. Last see what happened to those teams that drafted in the top ten. Below is a list of how many times each team has had a top ten pick (before trades) from 2000-2012.

Cleveland Browns 9 

Detroit Lions 8

Arizona Cardinals 8

Oakland Raiders 7

Cincinnati Bengals 7

San Francisco 49ers 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 5

Atlanta Falcons 5

Houston Texans 5

Washington Redskins 5

Kansas City Chiefs 4

Chicago Bears 4

Buffalo Bills 4

Dallas Cowboys 4

St. Louis Rams 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4

Minnesota Vikings 4 

Seattle Seahawks 3

San Diego Chargers 3

New Orleans Saints 3

Miami Dolphins 3

Carolina Panthers 3

Tennessee Titans 3

Green Bay Packers 2

New York Jets 2

Baltimore Ravens 2

Denver Broncos 2

New York Giants 1

New England Patriots 1

Philadelphia Eagles 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 1

Indianapolis Colts 1 

In addition to being painfully embarrassing for Lions fans, Browns fans, and Cardinals fans, this list shows a disturbing trend. Teams that pick in the top ten often pick in the top 10 again in the recent years following their pick. 10 of the league’s 32 teams (more than 30%) have had 5 or more top 10 picks in the last 13 drafts, and that’s excluding the fact that the Texans (5) didn’t even become a team until 2002. 6 of the leagues 32 teams have had at least 7 picks in the top 10 in the last 13 drafts.