Last week overall: 8-8
Last week ATS: 8-8 (-310/-7%)
Overall picks: 146-78 (.652)
ATS Picks: 116-101-7 (+$1610)
Lock picks: 11-4
Upset picks: 27-31 (+1078)
Week 15 recap: For the third straight week, I gave money back. Once at +3200 ATS, I now sit at +1610. Of course, this is still considered a good season because I am in the positive, but I don’t like giving money back. I hit on my lone 5 unit, but missed on both of my 4 units. Overall, I did come out better than flipping a coin, which would have been at -10%, instead of -7%, but this obviously isn’t my goal. The 8-8 record straight up and 2-5 record in upsets, giving back $171 there as well, wasn’t good either.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Carolina Panthers 9
Spread: Pittsburgh -14.5
Pick against spread: Carolina 3 units (-330)
This line is ridiculous. The Steelers have won a grand total of 4 games by 15+ point this year and 3 in 10 starts by Big Ben. They’re not a blow teams out type team. In one of those 14+ point wins, they had 14 points scored by their defense, a 16 point win over the Bengals. One of those defensive touchdowns was scored by Troy Polamalu who is not expected to play in this one. Without Polamalu, their defense loses a lot of their scoring ability which looks necessary for this team to score points.
In their last 4 games, they have scored a total of 58 offensive points, good for 14.5 points per game. Do you really want to bet on a team whose offense is having that much trouble scoring points as 14.5 point favorites? Also remember, 7 of those points were set up by a Troy Polamalu strip sack in the Baltimore game.
Losing Polamalu hurts this defense a lot. They had major trouble stopping a once stagnant Jets offense last week and they had major trouble defensively last year when Polamalu was hurt. This Panthers offense isn’t very good, but they aren’t bad enough to be given 14.5 points against a team whose offense isn’t doing much and whose defense is missing their top playmaker and, in my opinion, their most important defensive player.
If Big Ben and company can struggle against Cincinnati’s poor defense, they can struggle against this Carolina unit, which ranks better in most categories, including points per game, than Cincinnati’s. The Steelers are also a double digit favorite coming off a loss which covers only about 35% of the time. They may be a Thursday Night home team with a winning record, and teams have only lost thrice in that situation since 2006, but I’m not just picking a winner. To pick the Steelers would mean I’d have to pick them to win by 15. I’m going to take the Panthers for 3.
Dallas Cowboys 28 Arizona Cardinals 24
Spread: -6.5 Dallas
Pick against spread: Arizona 2 units (+200)
John Skelton, statistically, doesn’t look much better than Derek Anderson. However, on the field he really has been. He has only turned the ball over once in 76 throws. His strong arm is forcing opposing defenses to respect the pass and not just focus on the run. Most importantly, he’s getting the ball to their best receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, with consistency, something Derek Anderson couldn’t do. Overall, I think this offense is better off with Skelton over Anderson.
Skelton and this Cardinals offense played better in their home game, rather than their away game, something that has been the case all season. They are 3-4 at home with a differential of only -14. With a competent quarterback under center, against a poor pass defense, they have a good chance to put some points on the board in this game. The Cowboys defense has allowed 30+ in each of their last 4 games, including to Rex Grossman and the Redskins last week.
I think this line is too high. The Cowboys defense isn’t good enough to avoid backdoor covers, as we saw last week against the Redskins and if Rex Grossman can cover against a similar line, so can John Skelton at home. Also, teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 19-49 against the spread as favorites of 6 or more. The Cowboys would have to win their last 2 to finish better than 6-10, meaning they’d have to beat Philadelphia and Arizona. This situation came into play last week, when the Cowboys didn’t cover, though I ignored as I really didn’t want to bet on Grossman. This week is different.
Detroit Lions 23 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+165)
Spread: Miami –3.5
Pick against spread: Detroit 4 units (+400)
There are conflicting trends here. The Dolphins have never covered as favorites of more than a field goal in the Tony Sparano era in 8 chances. They also are 1-6 at home. However, their record after a loss is 5-1 this season. I am going with the Lions for 4 still for several reasons.
The Lions are 11-3 against the spread this season. That’s easily the leagues best record against the spread. The Dolphins could also be deflated this week after being eliminated from the playoffs last week, especially in a close game against a lesser opponent as favorites.
Just like last week, I expect them to fall flat on their faces as favorites at home, despite their strong record after a loss this season. The Dolphins are also 2-10 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer since 2006. They don’t rebound well after close losses and I don’t expect them to rebound well after a close loss against a lowly team that ended their season. Even if Miami wins, it probably won’t be a blowout and if they win by a field goal, the Lions, who are playing much better of late, still cover.
Washington Redskins 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 21 Upset Pick (+250)
Spread: -7 Jacksonville
Pick against spread: Washington 5 units (+500)
The Jaguars essentially just lost their Super Bowl. If they had beaten the Colts, they could have clinched the division over the hated rival Colts and swept the division series in the process. However, they lost what was probably their biggest game in 5 years and now trail the Colts in the division.
I can’t see them having any energy this week. They are 1-7 after losing to the Colts since 2002 and this loss will probably hurt more than most. Why would they get up for a non-conference opponent with a losing record? The Jaguars never seem to show much effort against non-divisional opponents, as they are 10-19 ATS since 2008 against non-divisional opponents (6-9 against the NFC).
Another situation they struggle in is as big favorites. This makes sense as they are a running team. They are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games as favorites of 7 or more and 4-10 in their last 14 as home favorites. Of their 8 wins this year, 3 of them were by 7 or more, Tennessee, who showed no effort, Dallas, who showed no effort, and the Bills, who were winless and blew a big lead.
Meanwhile, the Redskins looked pretty good last week scoring their highest total of the year, 30, thanks to a solid performance by Rex Grossman. Yes, that Rex Grossman. I’m not going to get ahead of myself and crown Rex Grossman the next John Elway or even the next Jake Plummer, though he did look like that. Dallas’ pass defense simply sucks. However, Jacksonville’s isn’t any better. They rank dead last against the pass in terms of YPA allowed. For all of those reasons I listed above, I am making this a 5 unit selection even though I have struggled betting on Jaguars games this season.
Chicago Bears 20 New York Jets 17
Spread: -1 Chicago
Pick against spread: Chicago 1 unit (+100)
This could be an ugly game. Both teams have erratic quarterbacks and talented, complex defenses with great pass rushes. Both quarterbacks will be under pressure a lot, not see a lot of open space downfield, and not be able to rely on their running game very much. I hate betting on these types of games which is why this is a 1 unit, but I like the Bears for a few reasons.
The Bears are at home and should be 3 point favorites if these two teams were evenly matched, which is standard for Vegas. However, they’re not 3 point favorites. It’s tough to say the Jets are better than the Bears considering the Bears have been playing better of late. They did get crushed by the Pats, but then again, so did the Jets. The Bears have been the more consistent team of late.
Also, the Bears could be riding their high after winning big on Monday Night. Teams coming off a Monday Night win of 17+ are 37-22 ATS the next week and 4-1 this year. However, I hate betting heavily on the erratic Jay Cutler. Hence, the 1 unit.
St. Louis Rams 27 San Francisco 49ers 17
Spread: St. Louis Rams -1.5
Pick against spread: St. Louis 2 units (+200)
The Rams have lost their last 2 by a combined 32 points. By 18 in New Orleans is understandable, but last week’s 14 point loss at home against Matt Cassel, who wasn’t 100% 11 days after an emergency appendectomy, and the Chiefs was inexcusable. That was a just a bad game. If they lose here, their backs are going to be up against it, 2 weeks after they looked like a very promising young team.
Sam Bradford needs to play well if the Rams are going to win. He hasn’t in the last 2 weeks. Luckily, the 49ers are terrible against the pass. I expect the Rams to get back on track this week at home. They are a better team at home, as they are a young team, while the 49ers are 1-6 on the road. The Rams strong pass rush should dominate the 49ers banged up offensive line and force Alex Smith into some bad throws.
Seattle Seahawks 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 Upset Pick (+220)
Spread: Tampa Bay -6
Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units
So much for being undefeated against losing teams. The Buccaneers lost last week at home to the Lions, which was incidentally ended the Lions record setting road losing streak. The Buccaneers are now a mere 8-1 against losing teams. However, against the only two losing teams they played that were close to .500, (Washington, St. Louis) they won by a mere 1 point. The Seahawks are 6-8.
In fact, this team doesn’t win games by a lot. Even against bad teams, they don’t blow anyone out, playing close games against Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Arizona. They’ve only won 3 games by more than a field goal this year, 2 of which were against the lowly Panthers. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are a when it rains it pours type team. They have lost all 8 games by double digits.
However, I’m not so sure the Seahawks are going to lose. The Buccaneers are struggling a lot of late, since losing both Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy to injury. Their defense is really struggling. That’s how they lost to Detroit and how they could have easily lost to Washington (if it weren’t for some Washington special teams snafus). They have no business laying 6 points here. They didn’t beat teams by more than 3 even before losing Talib and McCoy. Now they’re supposed to beat the Seahawks by 6 without Talib and McCoy.
The Seahawks are a bad road team making the longest trip in the league to play a game on the East Coast, three time zones away. However, this team always seems to do well in their road finales, as they are 9-4 in their last 13 road finales.
Matt Hasselbeck is struggling a lot of late, but he does well in his career off of back to back losses, as he is 12-4 ATS in this situation. He also should have a better game against this suddenly pathetic Tampa defense. If Drew Stanton can burn them, so can Hasselbeck. It also helps that Hasselbeck won’t be pressured much in this game. He normally struggles most against strong pressure, but the Buccaners only have 20 sacks this season, 2nd least in the league.
Finally, I think it’s worth noting that the Buccaneers are bad home team in the Raheem Morris era. They are 2-12 ATS at home in the Raheem Morris era and 3-4 straight up this season at home. I like the Seahawks to win and I love them to keep this one within 6 if they do lose, which would be their first single digit loss of the season.
New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 20
Spread: -9 New England
Pick against spread: New England 2 units (+200)
The Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2003, 14 straight meetings, so they will obviously be playing their hearts out to win. The Patriots also will be playing their hearts out. This team is playing dominant football right now. They might have overlooked the Packers last week without Aaron Rodgers, but they won’t make that mistake twice, especially against a division rival.
I can understand not playing 100% last week. The Packers are a good team and they might have felt relieved that they didn’t have to face Rodgers thus they let up and took a breather week. I don’t think they will havat the attitude this week, against a division rival, as they attempt to get ready for the playoffs and continue their dominance over the Bills. This team has something to prove. They have had something to prove all year and even as the consensus top team in the league, I don’t see them letting up. They didn’t let up in 2007.
Tom Brady and this Patriots team are more than 9 points better than Ryan Fitzpatrick and company. Unlike the Packers, the Bills can’t create consistent pressure. The Bills have only 25 sacks on the year, about 2 per game, and 5 in their last 3. Unlike the Packers, the Bills can’t contain the run, ranking 26th against the run. Unlike the Packers, the Bills can’t stop the pass, ranking 17th.
Tom Brady and company should be able to have another big offensive performance. Remember, they did have 31 in their “disappointing” performance against the Packers strong defense. They should have more than 30 in this one as well and I think the Bills will have a tough time keeping up, especially if the Pats defense gives more effort. I don’t love betting on high lines like this, which is why it’s only a two unit, but I’m fairly confident we could see another Patriots double digit victory here.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 16
Spread: Baltimore -3.5
Pick against spread: Baltimore 3 units (+300)
The Baltimore Ravens are going off easily their most impressive win of the season, over the New Orleans Saints. A lot of that win had to do with the fact that they finally got Ray Rice involved. Rice had over 2000 yards last season, so I have no idea why it took until week 15 for them to do so, but they finally did and it paid off. Rice touched the ball 36 times and turned it into 233 yards and 2 scores. If they don’t forget to do the same this week, this line is going to look silly.
By looking silly, I mean looking sillier than it already does. The Browns inexplicably had a lot of trouble moving the ball against the Bengals last week, so I have no idea why this is a 3.5 point line, even in Cleveland. The Ravens should have no trouble blowing the Browns out if they play like they did last week and I can’t see them letting up this week, needing to win out to win the division and have a shot at a first round bye.
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Tennessee Titans 13
Spread: -5 Kansas City
Pick against spread: Kansas City 1 unit (+100)
Last week, the Titans showed effort for the first time in weeks. It might not have been for coach Jeff Fisher, who was not been popular with his players since the Vince Young saga, but I can’t see them not giving effort for offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who has recently been diagnosed with cancer, yet is still working. I can’t see how they don’t admire that and play their hearts out for their offensive coordinator who is there, in a losing season, despite fighting for his life.
That being said, I can’t see them going into Kansas City and winning. The Chiefs are a much different team at home. They are 6-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 12.5 points. I think they can win this game here by 5 or more, but I’m not terribly confident in that.
Indianapolis Colts 31 Oakland Raiders 20
Spread: Indianapolis -3
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 3 units (+300)
Peyton Manning has likely lost Austin Collie for the season. Poor Collie. It seems like everytime he tries to come back from injury he gets a concussion. Nnamdi Asomugha will likely take away Reggie Wayne leaving Manning with an athletic but drop happy Pierre Garcon, a struggling Jacob Tamme, and the rookie Blair White.
Of course, his running game isn’t going to be much help, unless Donald Brown repeats the career high performance he had against the Jaguars last week. His offensive line, which is his worst in his career, will be under siege against the Raiders’ fierce pass rush and the Raiders crowd will be crazy as this upstart team tries to upset the picture of consistency, Peyton Manning. Manning’s defense will struggle to stop Darren McFadden on the ground. Peyton is going to find this to be a tough game to win.
However, I still think he’ll find a way to do it and in a fairly even spread, all he needs to do is win essentially. I don’t have any deep reasons or trends for you, but I just have a feeling that this is a game Manning won’t let his team lose. He’s had the toughest season since his rookie year, but his team can see the light of day now, controlling its destiny after beating the Jaguars. I don’t think they let that slip away. Oh, and just one actual trend. Peyton Manning does well in his career as a short favorite, meaning 3 or less.
Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 23 Upset Pick (+130)
Spread: -2.5 Houston
Pick against spread: Denver 2 units (+200)
Tim Tebow had a great NFL debut last week. The numbers won’t show it, but he looked good almost every time he threw the ball. He endured a few drops and Nnamdi Asomugha rendering Brandon Lloyd fairly useless, as well as a strong pass rush by the Raiders, but he still made some nice throws. The problem, his coach forgot to let him throw the ball. Tebow threw a mere 16 times as the Broncos stuck to a conservative gameplan, even running on 3rd and 8 down by 2 scores late. Tebow also added 78 yards on the ground, showing himself to be every bit the dual threat he was in college.
Tebow will get the start again this week and I guess Tebow was a good boy this year because for Christmas this year he gets to face the Texans’ terrible stop unit in his 2nd career start. Kerry Collins looked like Peyton Manning last week against this secondary. Tebow, as a dual threat, should be able to have a huge game throwing and running against this secondary.
The problem, the Texans should be able to put some points on the board as well. The Broncos defense is absolutely terrible and Matt Schaub is still a top 10 NFL quarterback. However, I’m taking the Broncos to win straight up as 2.5 point underdogs here for a few reasons.
The Texans seem to have given up. This makes sense. They were supposed to be a playoff team this year and, after how they started this year, it looked like they would finally make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. However, they’ve endured tough loss after tough loss and now sit at 5-9 and out of the playoff race. This team seemed more occupied with fighting each other last week than playing solid football and beating the division rival Titans. If Kubiak can’t get them up for a division rival, he won’t get them up for the 3-11 Broncos and their rookie quarterback on the road.
Also, it seems like this Texans team flat out doesn’t know how to win. It’s like they’re allergic to winning. They’ve mounted comebacks from down 14+ and still lost 4 times. Finally, Denver is a tough place for road teams to win with the altitude. They are 2-4 at home this year to 1-7 on the road.
New York Giants 28 Green Bay Packers 24 Upset Pick (+130)
Spread: Green Bay -3
Pick against spread: NY Giants 3 units (-330)
The Packers hung within 4 of the best team in the NFL last week with Matt Flynn on the road. At home, they should destroy the Giants with Aaron Rodgers back right? Well, not so fast. Last week, this team played its hearts out and caught the Patriots off guard. This week, the opposite could happen. The supporting cast might feel they don’t have to work as hard with Rodgers back and the Giants are surely not going to be caught off guard this week.
I’d like to cite a few examples of this in the past. Last year, Big ben was hurt against Baltimore. The Steelers hung tight with the Ravens with Dennis Dixon as their starting quarterback. The next week, with Big Ben back, they didn’t show up as big favorites over the Raiders and lost. This year, the Bears lost Jay Cutler for a game. Even with Todd Collins, they were able to beat the Panthers, thanks to a strong performance by the defense and running game. The next week, Cutler came back and they lost. You might say this game is a huge game in the playoff race, but so was Steelers/Raiders last year.
Aaron Rodgers is expected to play in this one, but I’m not sure even he will be 100%. He’s coming off his second concussion of the season and has to face the single best pass rushing front 4 in the league with an offensive line that has been letting him down in recent weeks. The Giants have already injured more than a handful of players this year and sent several guys to IR. Rodgers might be a bit shellshocked back there and even if he isn’t, he’s not going to get a lot of time to throw.
The Giants, meanwhile, are coming off a crushing defeat against the Eagles last week, blowing a 21 point 4th quarter lead at home to a divisional rival, essentially giving the Eagles the division. One might expect them to be flat off of that performance, but I disagree. History has shown that teams do well the next week in that situation. They feel extra motivated to win the next week. The Giants, in fact, have blown leads like that before this decade, both times, oddly, against the Titans. Both times, they covered or pushed the next week.
A few other situations work against the Packers. First, they are favorites after losing two straight, a situation in which teams struggle to cover. The Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 in this situation. As a home favorite after dropping two straight on the road, teams are 31-49 since 2002. The Giants, meanwhile, love the road as they are 27-14 ATS on the road since 2006.
However, I’m not making this a 4 or 5 unit pick. Normally I do when so many trends are working against a team, but the Giants are known for 2nd half swoons and could be in the middle of one right now (last week’s loss certainly suggests that). 2nd, I think in terms of pure talent, the Packers are the best team in the NFC. There’s a reason they haven’t lost by more than 4 all year.
San Diego Chargers 34 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Lock Pick
Spread: -9 Cincinnati
Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units (-330)
The San Diego Chargers are continuing their December dominance this year. Phillip Rivers is 21-1 in his career in December and the Chargers have won their last 2 by a combined score of 65-7. This should be another blowout. The Bengals won last week, but they still aren’t a very good team.
Carson Palmer will be missing his top target Terrell Owens in this one and Chad Ochocinco might not play with an ankle injury and if he does play, he will be severely limited. Cedric Benson will probably not have as good of a game this week against the Chargers and their elite run defense as he had last week against the Browns. Benson’s the main reason why they won last week. Palmer will also be under major pressure from the Chargers strong pass rush. Basically, the point I’m getting here is that Palmer and the Bengals offense aren’t going to have a good game and will probably throw multiple picks and possibly some pick sixes.
The Bengals defense isn’t going to have much more success against the Chargers offense. This Bengals defense is badly banged up and doesn’t have a chance at stopping the Chargers offense this week. I’m fairly confident that this will be a blowout, which is why the 3 units despite the -9 line. It would be 4 or 5, but the Chargers are going on the road this week after a cushy 3 game homestand and the Bengals have been the kings of backdoor covers this year. Still, I really like the Chargers to cover in this one. The Chargers have won 6 of their 8 wins by 20+. When they win, they win big.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Minnesota Vikings 21
Spread: Philadelphia -14
Pick against spread: Minnesota 1 unit (+100)
I hate spreads of 10 or more and I hate spreads of 14 or more even more. The Eagles don’t have the defense to beat teams by 14. They’ve only done it twice this year and once they only covered because their offense went on a tear and scored 59. They allowed 28 in that one.
However, Joe Webb, who is expected to start for the Vikings, might be the worst quarterback they’ve faced this year, especially in terms of throwing. Fortunately, he can run very well and even looked like a mini Mike Vick on his touchdown run last week.
The Eagles defense has given up a lot of big plays like season and with a fast strong armed, but inaccurate quarterback like Webb, big plays a very possible. I think the Vikings score on a few big plays and cover this spread. Plus, you never know, maybe Favre starts this one somehow (he did last week) and then that case, 14 points is much too many, even as bad as Favre’s played this year.
The reason this is a 1 unit is simple. The Vikings suck right now. They are playing terrible football and may even be homesick not having played a true homegame in a while. They got embarassed on MNF last week, losing by 17+. Teams in this situation are 16-35 ATS the next week since 1999 and 1-4 ATS the next week this season.
Atlanta Falcons 31 New Orleans Saints 23
Spread: -2 Atlanta
Pick against spread: Atlanta 3 units (-330)
This is a Monday Night Football game, which means we will have to endure Jon Gruden’s nonsense comments and non-stop praise of everyone on the field. It also means we have to endure the worst analysis on TV by the Monday Night Countdown crew as they make their picks. Among some of their “analysis” a few weeks ago in the Jets/Pats game were the following.
Steve Young: It’s my son Braden’s 10th birthday and we call him Brady B. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Pats.
Matt Millen: I think Tom Brady is the best quarterback on the field. I’m taking the Pats.
Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I gotta lotta love for New York, but I gotta go Pats.
These are only a few examples of their “analysis.” Most of the time they just say they’re picking a team because that’s the better team. Week 12, Chris Berman picked the 49ers to win 19-16 because that was an important date in San Francisco history. I can only imagine what they will say next week as the Saints head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.
Steve Young: Today is my cousin’s birthday and his name is Ryan. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Falcons.
Matt Millen: I think the Saints won the Super Bowl last year. I’m going with the Saints.
Chris Berman: WHOOP! Matt Ryan was born in 1985. I’m taking the Falcons to win 19 to 85. WHOOP! WHOOP! WHOOP!
Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I got mad love for Drew Brees, but I gotta go with the Falcons.
Tom Jackson: Matt Ryan has only lost at home once in his career and the Saints didn’t look good last week. Matt Ryan does best in big home games and this is the biggest game of the season of the Falcons. I’m taking the Falcons.
Stuart Scott: What Tom said sounds smart. I’m taking Falcons.
Mike Ditka: I used to coach the Saints and blood is thicker than water. I’m taking the Saints.
Cris Carter: I think the Falcons have the better team. I’m taking the Falcons.
Now for some real analysis. This line suggests that the Saints are the better team, albeit slightly. It’s standard in Vegas to add 3 points to a line when a team is at home, so on a neutral field this line would be Saints -1. That doesn’t make sense because the Falcons have the better record and the Falcons won earlier this year in New Orleans. Also, I think they should add more than 3 points because the game is in Atlanta. This is huge homefield advantage for the Falcons. Matt Ryan is 19-1 in his career at home.
Also consider that this is the first Monday Night game in Atlanta in the Matt Ryan era. Ryan feeds off the crowd’s energy and in a Monday Night home game against the hated rival Saints, you can bet there will be ton of energy for him to feed off of. Finally, the Saints looked bad last week. I think they’ve been underachieving all year and that will continue this week as they lose and the Falcons clinch the division.
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