32. Buffalo Bills 0-4

4 games in and Chan Gailey already tops my list of coaches who should be fired (over John Fox, Tom Coughlin, and Eric Mangini). Gailey’s scheme doesn’t work. That’s why the Chiefs went 2-14 and had the one of the league’s worst offenses when Gailey was the offensive coordinator in 2008. It works on a college level, but it doesn’t work in the NFL. The defenses are too smart and too fast to be fooled by a short throw offense. They’ll just stack the box and stagnant your offense. I can kind of see using that scheme with Trent Edwards at quarterback because Edwards throws like a girl (no offense to girls), but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bit of a stronger arm and they still aren’t setting up anything downfield to guys like Lee Evans (10 catches for 94 yards). 

Gailey also is refusing to use CJ Spiller, whom the front office spent the 9th overall pick on this past April. In 4 games, Spiller has 14 rushes and 12 catches for a total of 94 yards and a score. He used Marshawn Lynch as the feature back (37 carries for 164 yards) and now that they’ve cut ties with Lynch and traded him to Seattle for a 4th and a 6th rounder, Gailey has announced that Fred Jackson 920 carries for 87 yards) will be the starter. I know I didn’t like the Spiller move when it was made, because Lynch and Jackson were already capable of handling the running game, but at least use the kid. 

Also Gailey is starting the wrong quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 28 this November and has 789 career attempts as a 7th rounder pick out of Harvard. You know what you’re going to get out of him by and now and that’s a quarterback that, if everything else possibly goes right around him, will get you to 10-6. He’s not in that top 10 or top 15 tier of quarterbacks that can possibly win you a Super Bowl. My philosophy is that, if you know the guy starting for you isn’t the guy who can get your team where you want it to go, change the guy, whether it be by drafting a quarterback (which they should have done in April and should do this April in the 2011 NFL Draft) or by promoting someone in house. Brian Brohm has 29 career attempts and is a 25 year old former 2nd round pick. Why not see if he’s the guy that can take your team where you want it to go. It can’t hurt. He probably isn’t (17 for 29 for 146 yards and 2 picks in his career), but he’s still young and the Packers did see something in him when they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2008 (despite having Aaron Rodgers).

Finally, plain and simply, Gailey’s team sucks. There’s no getting past that. The Bills have lost by 20 or more points this year twice in 4 games and have yet to win a single game. They’ve lost by 15-10, 34-7, 38-30, and 38-14. That’s bad.

31. Cleveland Browns 1-3

Seneca Wallace did admirably in 3 starts after taking over for an injured Jake Delhomme after week 1. In 3 starts, he led the hapless Browns to a 1-2 record and threw for 554 yards on 52 for 85 with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks. He’s not the type of quarterback that’s going to win you a Super Bowl or anything, but he’s a solid game manager. The catch, they’re going back to Jake Delhomme this week. Come on. Did you expect any different? It’s the Browns. Browns and Bad quarterbacks are synonomous. I’m not sure what attracted them to Delhomme. Was it his 8 touchdowns to 18 picks in 2009? His 5 turnover game in the playoffs in 2008? Or his team killing 2 picks in the opener to lose a close one to the lowly Browns?

30. Detroit Lions 0-4

Further prove the football gods hate the Lions, the Lions are 0-4 and they’re not even playing badly. They’ve lost those 4 games by a combined 24 points. And it’s not like they’re almost beating bad teams. They lost to the Bears by 1 on a bullshit rule. They lost to the Eagles by 3. They lost to the Vikings by 14 in a game that should have been a lot closer. They lost by 2 to the Packers this past weekend. If they had had a healthy Matt Stafford, they could be 3-1 right now or something like that. Shaun Hill is a servicable player, but doesn’t have the big play potential Stafford has. They’re losing like always, but they’re not even playing like they always do. This team is now 3-41 in their last 44 games. The football gods hate the Lions.

29. Arizona Cardinals 2-2

The Cardinals are making the switch from Derek Anderson to undrafted rookie Max Hall, 4 games into this season. They’ve played a lot worse than their 2-2 record would suggest as their two wins came by a combined 5 points to the lowly Raiders and the Rams in Sam Bradford’s debut. They needed a missed chip shot field goal by Sebastian Janikowski to beat the Raiders. Their two losses came by a combined 65 points. Their runs scored/runs allowed differential of -60 is 2nd worst in the league to the Bills -64. They may be in first place, but they’re not playing like a first place team, at all.

I actually like the switch to Max Hall. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t I go into detail about how quarterbacks that have a rookie redshirt year do so much better in their careers. That is very true, but that only concerns potential franchise quarterbacks. I saw enough of Max Hall in college to know there’s about a .5% chance he’s a franchise quarterback in the NFL, maybe not even that much of a chance. However, he’s better than what they have in Derek Anderson. Hall is very similar to Bruce Gradkowski and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Give them an amazing supporting cast and they can take you to the playoffs. Hall can win this team the 6 or 7 games (I wish I was kidding) it could take to win this division. 

He’s pretty much the anti-Derek Anderson. Anderson has all the physical tools to win you games, but he’ll lose you a lot more than he’ll win you with poor decision making, accuracy, and intangibles. Hall doesn’t wow you with arm strength at all. He stands at about 6-1 210 with shoes on, but he’s a proven leader, and he’s got great mechanics and accuracy. He may be a rookie, but he’s 24, thanks to a 2 year mormon mission. He also is younger and less proven. You know what you’re getting with Derek Anderson and it ain’t pretty. With Hall, there’s a chance he could become that franchise guy that could lead your team to the Super Bowl. It’s not a good chance, but it’s a better chance than Anderson. And if he doesn’t, well maybe he can lead this team to a 7 win playoff berth this year and they can start fresh with a new signal caller in 2011. Or better yet, draft one in 2011 and sit him behind Hall for a year as a rookie redshirt year. Because after all, the history doesn’t lie. Rookie redshirt years do help.

28. Oakland Raiders 1-3

The Raiders have their biggest game of the year this week. They play the Chargers, the early season Chargers, and have a legitimate chance to knock the Chargers off for the first time in 13 games. This is their Super Bowl, because they’re obviously not going to be playing in any real Super Bowl anytime soon. I expect them to come out playing hard and (NFL Picks spoiler alert), I they’ll pull it off.

27. Carolina Panthers 0-4

Poor Jimmy Clausen. As if having a crappy offensive line, a defense that can’t stop anyone, a Head Coach who forgot his team was a run first team, and receivers for the most part that can’t get seperation, Steve Smith has now gone down with yet another of his patented injuries and could miss up to the month. Now he has no receivers that can get open. His top receivers are two rookies, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, both of whom were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Dwayne Jarrett who might as well not even have hands. He can’t catch anything. I don’t know how Clausen almost knocked off the Saints in New Orleans with this supporting cast.

26. San Francisco 49ers 0-4

What’s sad is that this team still has a decent shot of winning the division, despite starting 0-4. Their division is that bad. They have 5 more games remaining with division opponents. If they go 4-1 in those games, and then play decent (3-4) in their other 7 games, they have 7 wins and could win this division. Their still a talented team. In fact, I’d say they’re the most talented team in the division. Two of their losses were for stupid reasons and by a combined 5 points to a good Atlanta and a good New Orleans team. There’s no need to panic in San Fran and change coaches (why would you want to get rid of Singletary) or quarterbacks (argue all you want, Alex Smith is better than David Carr). If they don’t make the playoffs, then they can fire their coach and switch quarterbacks, meaning draft a new one in the first round with what should be a top 10 pick.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-2

The Jaguars just beat the Colts, but this is still a bad team. They beat the Colts because they always play the Colts tough. Some bad teams, in fact most bad teams, particularly ones that have been bad consistently in recent history, all have teams they play their hardest against traditionally. For the Jaguars, that is the Colts. They won that game because they gave it their all, but they don’t do that every week. In fact, they don’t do that most weeks. Also, those two weird turnovers by the Colts and a magical 59 yard field goal to win it also probably helped a lot.

24. Seattle Seahawks 2-2

I don’t love their move for Marshawn Lynch. I think that, first of all, running games are overrated. As long as you have a strong passing game to lift their pressure off the box, most decent running backs can average 4 YPC. Look at what the Patriots have been doing for years. All you need is different types of running backs to mix and match. Second of all, I don’t think the running game was the problem. Justin Forsett and Leon Washington were capable backs. Lynch does give them that extra look, which is good. The positives, of course, are that (as always) the NFC West sucks so adding a player like Lynch could have a tiny difference that pushes them over the top. Also, what they gave up, a 4th and 6th rounder, is not all that much.

23. st. Louis Rams 2-2

The Rams are the favorites in the NFC West? Why not? The Seahawks are having defensive issues and I know how that I trust Matt Hasselbeck as a quarterback. The 49ers and 0-4 desperately need to get their shit together. And the Cardinals just switch quarterbacks to an undrafted rookie. So, I’d say the Rams are the favorites in the NFC West. I’m not sure if you’re sensing a theme, but the NFC West is pretty bad.

What’s so surprising about the Rams is not their offense. Steven Jackson is doing what we expect him too, which is being a badass, doing everything a running back can possibly do, all while playing injured. Sam Bradford, though a lot will be made that he’s having a good year, is really not. He’s completing 58% of his passes for a YPA of 6.0 and 6 picks to 6 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad rookie numbers at all, but they’re not amazing, especially considering he’s faced some pretty run of the mill or worse defenses (Seattle, Washington, Arizona, Oakland). They’re basically what I expected from a rookie quarterback who didn’t have much experience in a pro style offense and hadn’t played in a competitive football game since October of 2009. 

What is surprising about the Rams and what is making them 2-2 is their defense. I guess it shouldn’t be so surprising, considering Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive genius. The Giants can’t create any pressure without Spags as their defensive coordinator (unless of course they’re playing the Bears). But the personnel on this defense were hardly impressive names coming into the season. However, they ranked 16th against the pass in YPA and 7th against the pass in QB rating. They also have an impressive 9 sacks (10th in the league) in 4 games.

This of course could be because of their weak strength of schedule. Other than Donovan McNabb, they aren’t really facing any good quarterbacks. Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, and Shaun Hill are hardly impressive quarterbacks. We’ll have to see what they do once they’re tested. Luckily for them, they won’t really be tested all that much. I think they have the easiest schedule in the league and that could propel them to be an unlikely playoff team (granted with 7 or so wins).

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Bye

21. Denver Broncos 2-2

With Kyle Orton playing the way he is, the Broncos are in a great position to challenge for the AFC West if the Chargers don’t improve and the Chiefs 3-0 start is really as much of a fluke as I think it is. Kyle Orton is playing like a legitimate quarterback and stretching the field. Their passing game is dangerous deep down field, something they didn’t have last year. That’s going to open things up for the running game and put points on the board. This is going to force opponents to match and that’s going to allow them to make the most of their strong pass defense. The big thing is though, red zone offense. 1419 passing yards by Orton has led to 6 passing touchdowns and 87 points. If they can capitalize on their strong passing offense, with a odd matched bunch of receviers that work well together (Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney), they’re going to be a solid team this year, especially if Knowshon Moreno can run well coming back from his injury, and if their ground defense can play as well as it did last week against Chris Johnson.

20. Philadelphia Eagles 2-2

Michael Vick supporters got more ammunition this week. First of all, they never got to see Michael Vick struggle against a defense that wasn’t the Lions’ or the Jaguars’ because he wasn’t in the game long enough. Before leaving with a rib cage injury, Vick was 5 for 7 for 59 yards and it was tough to call it either a bad performance or a good performance by Vick. Also, Kolb came in and didn’t really play that well and lost the game. Vick supporters can now say that the Eagles are 2-0 in games that Vick starts and finishes and 0-2 in games that he doesn’t. I can’t wait until Vick comes back and has to play a good defense and struggles and shuts up Vick supporters. Vick is not nearly the quarterback he once was and he was never even the quarterback that every thought he was. He’s not a good pocket passer or passer in general.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

Bye

18. Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Remember all the excitement around Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens that was out there before the season, all the hype. Where’s any of that now? It all disappeared and Owens just caught 10 catches for 222 yards and is not even really that big of news. I guess that’s what happens when you lose, especially to the Browns. I guess that just goes to show, it doesn’t matter how good your receivers are if your quarterback is crap. Palmer has proven this season that he is crap. No more excuses for him. If he can’t even lead this team to the playoffs, not looking likely, we can never possibly say he’s the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl. As I’ve mentioned, my rule with quarterbacks, if you don’t think you can win a Super Bowl with a guy, you’ve gotta switch, either to a backup that’s unproven or by drafting a new quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see if they do one of those two this offseason.

17. Tennessee Titans 2-2

I had a feeling that Chris Johnson could struggle this year, after leading the league in carries and touches at his small size last year, but I didn’t imagine anything like what we’ve seen from him at times this year. Johnson is averaging 3.8 YPA and has two performances of 34 yards and 53 yards. 34 against the Steelers is excuable. Michael Turner and Ray Rice couldn’t break 50 against them either. But 53 against the Broncos? This is the same Broncos team that was one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league last year and fixed that by giving enormous amounts of money to former backups on the defensive line. Johnson also has performances of 142 yards and 125 yards, but the low YPA, 3.8 on the year, hasn’t broken 4 in a week since week 1, and those two clunker performances, are very concerning, especially for Titans fans. The less he can run, the more Vince Young has to pass and the more Vince Young has to pass, the more they lose. Young is a great winner and game manager, but he can’t be relied on to win a game where he has to throw 30 times for 250 yards to win.

 

16. Miami Dolphins 2-2

Special teams, and particularly their special team’s coach, the recently canned John Bonamego, are going to be blamed for that loss to the Patriots, a loss in which the Patriots became the first team ever to have a kick return touchdown, a rushing touchdown, a passing touchdown, a blocker kick returned for a touchdown, and a pick six in the same game. However, the special teams shouldn’t take all the blame and what blame the special teams takes should fall on the players, not the coach. There’s only so much a coach can do if his players play like crap, as they did in the Patriots game. Also, even without the 21 points (punt return touchdown, blocked kick return touchdown, blocked punt that set up a short field for a touchdown) that their special teams gave up, they still lose that game 20-14. I feel like special teams could be a scapegoat for their loss. They didn’t just lose because their special teams didn’t play well. As a team, they didn’t play well.

Henne was able to move the ball well on a poor New England defense, but he also through three killer interceptions (one for a pick six) that simply should not have been thrown. I know he’s young, but he’s got to work on his decision making. Now, there are actually talks that Henne could be benched in favor of Chad Pennington (3 comeback players of the year for Pennington?), an interesting move, as they attempt to save their season. I think it would be best to let Henne work through his issues, but if they feel differently, Pennington could be the guy again.

15. Minnesota Vikings 1-2

The Vikings had a bye last week, but made headlines by trading for former face of the franchise Randy Moss. I know it’s not the same regime in town as it was when Moss forced himself out after the 2004 season and began his exile in Oakland, but it’ll still be weird seeing Moss in a Vikings jersey again. I do like the move of the Vikings though. Sidney Rice isn’t playing for at least another 4 weeks and they could be out of it by then. Favre has proven this year that he needs a big athletic target like a Randy Moss or a Sidney Rice. The Vikings figure, Favre’s probably done after the year anyway, meaning it would be back to square one for this franchise, why not go all out this year and try as hard as possible to win it all. I like the courage. I’m not sure it even makes them a playoff team yet. Favre still has to play better and get better protection, but if those things happen, look out, especially once Rice returns. Moss, Rice, Harvin, Peterson, Favre, oh shit. How do you stop that? Moss faces his old nemisis Darrelle Revis this week as the Vikings take on the Jets. I’ll say more about the Moss move in the Patriots section (spoiler alert).

14. Chicago Bears 3-1

Many people can be blamed for what took place on the field last week at Meadowlands, meaning 10 sacks by the Giants on the Bears, two different quarterbacks getting hurt for the Bears, and a total offense of 110 yards. First of all, Mike Martz’ scheme was to blame. It’s pretty easy to stop the Mike Martz scheme, just create pressure on the quarterback. The Martz scheme can be explosive, but it requires a lot of time in the pocket, a lot of 7 step drops to set up deep routes. 2nd, I’m going to blame Jay Cutler himself. He knows the pressure is coming. He’s got to get it out of there to one of the open guys. When the opponent blitzes, someone is open. He knows the blitz is coming. He needs to do what Kurt Warner did in this scheme in St. Louis, read the blitz and get that ball out of there. He looked like a statue out there last week and simply could not read the blitz at all. 3rd, you gotta blame the offensive line. They have to block better than that, plain and simple. I had some concerns about the Martz scheme coming to Chicago this year and those two concerns were the Cutler doesn’t do well under pressure and that the Bears offensive line is pretty porous. Both of those concerns came to life last Sunday night in a 17-3 loss to the Giants. They’ll have to rebound this week against the Panthers, but without Jay Cutler (concussion). Todd Collins will start instead.

13. New York Giants 2-2

Still tough to get a read on this team. They are a talented bunch, but they are just 2-2 and their offense didn’t look that great in a 17-3 win over the Bears. You’d think if how well that defense play, their offense could have easily scored 20-25 if they had been more in sync, but they weren’t. Time will still continue to tell for this team, but I think Tom Coughlin will get fired if they slip up in these next few weeks or if they don’t make the playoffs this season as this team is talented enough to make the playoffs easily.

12. Washington Redskins 2-2

Clinton Portis’ injury, for 4 to 6 weeks with a hammy problem, could be a blessing in disguise for this team. Ryan Torain is younger and is running better right now. He looks like the future at running back for the Redskins. I had a feeling he could have a big role on this team at some point this year. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Pakrer are all ancient (two have been cut, one is hurt) and Shanahan specifically brought Torain in from Denver, the team with whom Shanahan drafted Torain in the 5th round in 2008.

11. Dallas Cowboys 1-2

Bye

10. Houston Texans 3-1

Gary Kubiak’s decision to bench Foster for a quarter and a half because he was late to one team meeting is a bit head scratching. There could have been prior offenses, but everything I’ve read about him has been positive, regarding his character, so I doubt that. Luckily for Kubiak, Foster still managed 187 total yards and 2 total touchdowns on 19 touches and a 31-24 Texans victory, and I mean luckily in more than one sense. Luckily for his team’s sake. They still won the game 31-24, despite not having Andre Johnson’s services at all. And, Kubiak won’t be killed by an angry mob of fantasy owners for benching their star player without any word prior. Those fantasy owners who were once pissed and ready to form an angry mob to march down to Houston to kill Kubiak (including me) now can’t possibly be pissed because Foster got them 34 fantasy points. 

9. Baltimore Ravens 3-1

Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers with Big Ben: 4-0. Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers without Big Ben: 0-2. Joe Flacco’s late drive to lead his team to victory was impressive, especially considering that was the first time all season the Pittsburgh defense was made look human. However, you still have to wonder what that score looks like if Ben plays. In a few weeks we’ll see as these two, of course, will meet again later in the season, but for now, Flacco’s accomplishment, however impressive, is a bit cheapened by Ben’s suspension.

8. San Diego Chargers 2-2

We still don’t know what type of team this is. They don’t normally start playing good football until late October, early November. They’ve had an extremely easy early season schedule, but thanks to two close and kind of weird losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road, they do sit at 2-2. Their schedule doesn’t get much harder these next two weeks as they face the Raiders and Rams. However, they better bring it weeks 7-9 before the bye as they face New England, Tennessee, and Houston. After the bye, they face division rival Denver and the Colts. If they struggle in those 5 games and go say 2-3, I’d be concerned about their ability to win this division. The Chiefs and Broncos are both better than they were last year.

7. New England Patriots 3-1

The Patriots were really impressive last week, but considering how they won, I don’t think it tells us a ton about this team. This defense looked really bad for most of the time they were on the field, with the exception of their 4 interceptions. This defense might not be able to tackle anyone or cover anyone, but they can take the ball away from you. Their 7 interceptions on the season rank 2nd best in the league, only to Atlanta with 8.

I also want to comment on the Randy Moss move. I live in Boston and the move definitely didn’t go over well with Patriots nation here. I, included, am not a fan of the move. I rather have kept Moss for the season and let him go after then have just gotten a 3rd rounder for him. I’d feel differently if it was the originally rumored 2nd round pick, because in that case, Moss isn;t a huge part of this offense any more, and they probably weren’t going to win the Super Bowl with or without him, and he was going to go for nothing after the season, and it would allow us to build young talent for 2012 or 2013, when Moss would clearly have been out of the picture anyway. But a 3rd rounder is different. It just doesn’t feel like fair value. the only way this move makes sense to me is if there was something internal that we don’t know about that forced him out. It certainly wouldn’t be the first team a team has had to trade Randy Moss for dimes on the dollar for behind the scenes reasons. Unfortunately, since it is the Patriots, we’re never going to know for sure.

6. New York Jets 3-1

In the process of determining if Mark Sanchez has taken the leap in his 2nd year to being a legitimate Super Bowl caliber quarterback, the fact that he just destroyed the Bills means about as little as anything can mean. The fact that a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is running like he’s 25, however, is huge. The more LT and Shonn Greene (who also rushed for over 100 yards, first time this season, against the Bills) can do, the less Sanchez has to do,a dn the less Sanchez has to do, the better I still say at this point in his career. At the same time, this defense gets Calvin Pace and Darrelle Revis back, and the offense gets Santonio Holmes back from suspension. This team is now 100% and very, very scary.

5. Atlanta Falcons 3-1

I was expecting a letdown after they beat the Saints, essentially their Super Bowl, so I’m not surprised that it took a weird play for them to beat the 49ers by 2. This team is still an elite team in great position to make a deep run this January.

4. New Orleans Saints 3-1

The Saints have won their 3 games by a combined 10 points over three teams that are a combined 1-11. The Super Bowl hangover has hit this team. That’s the bad news. The good news, they’re still 3-1 and you just know that Drew Brees could explode to lead this team to 30+ points on any given week still. You still fear this team and their weapons. I’m not going to pick them to go all the way, especially as their already weak defense will miss Tracy Porter (out indefinitely) and their offense wll miss Reggie Bush, who by even the most optimistic projections, is out until after week 7. Their offense simply isn’t quite the same without him. However, I’m not going to be surprised if they repeated. They’re still a talented bunch sitting at 3-1.

3. Indianapolis Colts 2-2

People in the sports media are panicking and overreacting to the Colts loss to the Jaguars and the fact that they sit at 2-2. The Colts lost to a good Houston team that was playing its heart out and as Jacksonville team that was playing its heart out, because of two weird turnovers and an amazing 59 yard field goal by Jags’ kicker Josh Scobee. There’s a chance they don’t get 12 wins again this year, but they’re still a dangerous team. They still have Peyton Manning and there is no Super Bowl hangover with this team. They’ve been to the Super Bowl before and won it. They won’t be as distracted by losing one, for that reason, than a team that had never been to a Super Bowl together before that.

2. Green Bay Packers 3-1

The fact that the Packers barely beat the Lions by 2 and all the injuries that are adding up (Ryan Grant, Morgan Burnett, Nick Barnett out for the season, Nick Collins out indefinitely) are causes for concern for the Packers. However, they were my Super Bowl pick to start the year and they are still 3-1 with one loss by 3 points, so I’m still ranking them very high. I love the explosiveness of this offense with Aaron Rodgers. I would have loved it more if they had traded for a real running back like Marshawn Lynch, but whatever.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

The Steelers lost, by remain my #1 team for the 2nd week in a row because, look what happened to all the other top 5 teams. Atlanta won by 2, New Orleans won by 2, Green Bay won by 2, and the Colts lost. No elite team did amazing last week and the Steelers were easily playing the toughest opponent of the bunch. If this team can mesh well when Big Ben comes back, they’re going far this year. It’s as simple as that.