Last week overall: 7-7
Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)
Overall picks: 44-32 (.579)
ATS Picks: 37-36-3 (+$430/+2%)
Lock picks: 4-1
Upset picks: 7-5
Seattle Seahawks 13 Chicago Bears 23
Spread: Chicago -6.5
Pick against spread: Chicago 2 units -220
Seattle sucks on the road. They are 3-15 on the road since the start of 2008 and 6-20 since the start of 2007. Chicago is getting Jay Cutler back so they won’t have to worry about Todd Collins going 6 for 16 with 4 picks. Seattle’s defense is not as good as the Giants, especially in terms of a pass rush, so Cutler should have a good game. Matt Hasselbeck does really bad under pressure. He’s done all right this season because he’s only been sacked 9 times. The reason, they haven’t really faced a good pass rush, like the Bears possess. Julius Peppers could have a huge game here against Seattle’s mediocre line in a win.
Baltimore Ravens 21 New England Patriots 24
Spread: New England -2.5
Pick against spread: New England 1 unit +100
This one was tough. We saw how badly the Ravens beat the Patriots last year in the playoffs, but what are the chances Tom Brady throws 4 picks again. That’s the only reason Baltimore won that game and, if you remember, Baltimore actually lost to the Pats earlier last season. The Ravens destroyed the Broncos and their one dimensional offensive attack last week, but the Patriots aren’t quite as one dimensional. They can run and they also convert in the red zone much better than the Broncos do. The Patriots also haven’t lost off a bye week since 2003. In fact, they’ve only lost one game where they’ve had more than 2 weeks to prepare (season opener, coming off bye) since 2003. I’m taking the Patriots, but not putting a lot of value on it.
Detroit Lions 20 New York Giants 23
Spread: -10 NY Giants
Pick against spread: Lions 2 units +200
The Lions have covered all 4 times they have been underdogs this season and are 5-0 against the spread this season. They’re coming off a 44 point outburst, yet are unexplicably being given roughly 10 points here. The Giants are coming off two great wins, but something about this team suggests to me that they could go from good right back to bad once again. Maybe it was the fact that they failed to blowout the Bears, who played like crap offensively. Maybe it’s the fact that Eli Manning through 2 desperate picks against the Texans…when leading by 3 touchdowns. Whatever the reason, I’m not picking the Giants to cover a large spread against a team that’s 5-0 against the spread.
Atlanta Falcons 31 Philadelphia Eagles 21 Upset Pick
Spread: Philadelphia -3
Spread against spread: Atlanta 5 units -550
The Eagles can’t stop the pass. Bad news, the Falcons passing offense is the strength of their offense. The Falcons also have a surprisingly strong pass rush to get after the quarterback and the Eagles offensive line is playing like complete crap of late. The 49ers sacked Kevin Kolb 4 times. Imagine what the Falcons will do to him. I love this matchup for the Falcons here, even on the road. I have no idea why they are underdogs here. The Eagles are incredibly overrated.
Cleveland Browns 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Spread: -14 Pittsburgh
Pick against spread: Cleveland 2 units -220
14 point spreads always make me nervous. That’s a lot to win by. The Steelers are better than the Browns by a lot, but here’s my thinking. The Steelers defense has been playing 110% with Ben out. Ben’s back now and they are playing the lowly Browns. Why would they play 100%. They could easily hold Colt McCoy and the Browns to single digits if they tried their hardest, but I don’t expect them to do so. If they give up 10+, I need to Steelers to score 24+ to win and I don’t feel comfortable picking them to do that. I’m not putting a lot on them, but I got the Browns.
Miami Dolphins 20 Green Bay Packers 27
Spread: -4 Green Bay
Pick against spread: Green Bay 1 unit -110
The line has officially been posted for this one, a -4 line favoring the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is expected to play, but he probably won’t be 100% and any wrong hits could force the Packers to pull him and put in Matt Flynn. Chad Henne has not won a game this season against a team that can either take away his run game (New York) or put points up on the board in a hurry with their passing game (New England). The Packers can do both. However, they have so many injuries on both sides of the ball and they’re really struggling right now. The line value is more than a field goal so I’m put 1 unit on the Packers in a shaky play.
San Diego Chargers 24 St. Louis Rams 21
Spread: -9 San Diego
Pick against spread: St. Louis 2 units +200
The Chargers have yet to win on the road, but this is right around the time they start playing better every year. This can also be seen as a must win game for them. If they start 2-4, their backs will be up against it with a good Denver team and a good Kansas City team in their division. I expect them to come out and play better than they normally do against inferior teams on the road, but that spread is pretty huge. I’m not going to take them to cover that spread after what I’ve seen from them this season on the road.
New Orleans Saints 36 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26
Spread: -4 New Orleans
Pick against spread: New Orleans 3 units +300
I think that loss to the Cardinals was a wake up call. The Saints had been underachieving and still winning up to that point, but now they sit here at 3-2 and facing the possibility of falling to 3-3 if they lose on the road to an “inferior” Bucs team. If they fall to 3-3, Tampa will sit at 4-1 and Atlanta will sit at either 4-2 or 5-1 and both of those teams will hold tiebreakers over them. That’s not a place they want to be. I expect a much better effort out of them offensively this week and for them to convert in the red zone, something they haven’t done to this point. The Bucs will score points with Josh Freeman against this injured New Orleans defense, but not enough to win or cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 17 Houston Texans 28
Spread: -4.5 Houston
Pick against spread: Houston 5 units -550
The Chiefs defense played their hearts out against Indy, but still lost because their offense is incompetent. They won’t play nearly as well this weak against a Houston offense squad that just looked like crap last week. With a fully healthy Andre Johnson, their offense should be back to normal. The Texans defense is weak against the pass, but Matt Cassel isn’t good enough to hurt them in any significant way. Unless the Texans throw a pick six or allow a special teams turnover, they’ll cover this week.
Oakland Raiders 20 San Francisco 49ers 23
Spread: -6 49ers
Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit -110
Interesting spread. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an 0-5 team favored by 6 points before. The Raiders won’t be 100% after playing their hearts out last week, with an 0-5 team on tap so I expect the 49ers to win this game, but I’m not taking them giving up that many points to the spread. I don’t trust them to win this game by more than 6, especially if Jason Campbell plays like he did late against San Diego.
Dallas Cowboys 21 Minnesota Vikings 28
Spread: -1.5 Minnesota
Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units +200
This game is basically a playoff game. If you lose, you go home basically. Neither of these teams are going to be able to come back from 1-4. However, you win and you’re right there at 2-3 and a 9-7/10-6 season isn’t that far out of reach. Who do you trust more in a playoff game? Brett Favre? Or Tony Romo? I’m going with the elder of the two, at home, a place where Favre is 10-1 since joining the team before last year. Yeah, they are 1-1 there this year, but they are a better team now with Randy Moss and having had their bye than the one that lost at home earlier this year. I expect them to beat the Cowboys in Minnesota and eliminate them the way they eliminated them in Minnesota last January.
New York Jets 31 Denver Broncos 19
Spread: -3 NY Jets
Pick against spread: NY Jets 4 units +400
The Broncos lost last week because Baltimore’s defense is too good for one dimensional teams. They will lose the same way this week and for the same reason. This should be an easy cover for the Jets even on the road in Denver, a tough place to win.
Indianapolis Colts 37 Washington Redskins 21 Lock Pick
Spread: -3 Indianapolis
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 5 units -50
It’s crazy how out of favor the Colts have fallen this season. Easy money. All Peyton Manning has to do is outscore the Redskins by 3 and the Redskins can’t stop anyone through the air. I’m going to take the Colts every week until people remember who their quarterback is and start giving them some repsect again.
Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Upset Pick
Spread: -3 Tennessee
Pick against spread: Jacksonville 3 units -330
The Titans are 0-2 this year coming off a win. The home team is 8-3 against the spread on Sunday and Monday night this season. The Jaguars are 6-1 against AFC North opponents since the start of last season. The Jaguars haven’t had a home Monday night game in what seems like forever. They play well when they’re fired up and on Monday Night Football against a division opponent, they’ll be fired up plenty against a Titans team that can’t win 2 in a row.
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