Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Projections

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here. For the short version, I feel the same away about the Titans and Jake Locker that I felt about Matt Stafford and the Lions last year. You have to be conservative, but even if you are, Locker makes a lot of sense as a low end QB1. That team has drafted so well in the past 4-5 years and looks ready to pop.

8/20/12: The Titans have named Jake Locker starting quarterback. Locker averaged 8.2 YPA and had 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions last season, but he also only completed 51.5% of his passes. He has accuracy issues dating back to his days at Washington and if his last Preseason start is any indication (4-11 for 21 yards), those aren’t past him. He has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (270 pts standard/320 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

Unlike last year, Chris Johnson won’t be more focused on getting paid this offseason than staying in shape. It took him until the 2nd half of the season last year to even remotely resemble CJ2K, but in his last 8 games, he carried the ball 141 times for 681 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 282 carries for 1362 yards and 6 touchdowns. He could be even better this season, especially with the addition of Steve Hutchinson at upfront.

He’ll probably also get more carries. The Titans don’t have another back capable of challenging him and they should run more than the 376 times they ran last year, 30th in the league. His touchdowns should also increase. The 22/8 passing/rushing touchdown ratio the Titans had last year should prove to be an outlier. Finally, if Jake Locker is under center, his rushing ability and ability to throw stretch the defense with his arm will take the defense’s focus off of Johnson. Johnson had his best years when Vince Young, who could do the same sorts of things, was under center.

Projection: 300 carries 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 45 catches 350 receiving yards (233 pts standard/278 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/31/12: I’ve maintained all along that Britt has the ability to be a top-10 wide receiver with Jake Locker throwing him the football. He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Now he’s only getting suspended 1 game and should be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by week 2. He might not become a top-10 receiver this year with the uncertainty about the knee and the one game he’ll miss, but he definitely has the upside and he’s worth the risk as a WR2/flex type in the early mid rounds.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: Adam Schefter reports that Britt will likely receive only a short suspension, somewhere between 1-3 games. He’s also made an incredible recovery from 2 knee surgeries and is impressing in work on the side and could be activated from the PUP any day now. I originally projected him to play 12 games, now I’m changing his projections to 14 games. Remember, in his last 14 full games, he’s caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s got incredible upside in the mid rounds still.

7/26/12: There are three numbers that are important for Britt. The first is 12, meaning 12 touchdowns over his last 14 games, to go with 56 catches and 1146 yards, despite generally mediocre quarterbacking (Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Matt Hasselbeck). The 2nd number is 8, however, meaning 8 arrests in the last 3 years since entering the league. He’ll almost definitely be suspended after his last one, for DUI. He would have been suspended last season, but Roger Goodell agreed not to suspend guys for what they did during the lockout. He won’t be so lucky this time around.

The 3rd number is 3, meaning 3 knee surgeries in the last 10 months. I’m cutting his originally projected numbers by 25%. He might not miss 4 games, but he could and even if he doesn’t, he’ll be far from 100%. Let him be someone else’s problem, unless you can get him late, in which case he’s a sleeper with nice upside. His current ADP in the 7th round is far too rich, however.

In the last 2 seasons, Britt has played 13 entire games. In those 14 games, he has 56 catches for 1046 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 64 catches for 1195 yards and 14 touchdowns. And he did that with Kerry Collins, Vince Young and just 2 games of Matt Hasselbeck. There’s serious sleeper value with him in the mid rounds, even all of the receiving options the Titans have. He just needs to stay on the field for 16 games. He had another knee surgery this offseason, but it doesn’t sound serious.

Projection: 60 catches 960 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (144 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

8/31/12: Kenny Britt will only be suspended 1 game. With Britt back and Kendall Wright coming in, Washington almost definitely won’t have another 1000 yard season, but he’s improved from 2010 as a football player and his quarterback situation has been upgraded so even if he has fewer targets than in 2010, he should exceed his 2010 production. He’s a nice late round “handcuff” for Britt because he’ll see plenty of targets should Britt get hurt again.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: With Britt likely missing 2 games instead of 4, like I originally predicted, Washington obviously gets a stock down. He caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year out of necessity, but now Britt is coming back from injury and they’ve brought in Kendall Wright in the first round. He caught just 42 passes for 687 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010. His stats should be closer to that in 2012.

7/26/12:  Remember, Nate Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns in Britt’s absence last year. He won’t quite do that this year because Britt won’t miss as much action as he did last year and because of the presence of rookie receiver Kendall Wright. However, he deserves a stock up after Britt’s latest surgery and arrest.

Nate Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year with Kenny Britt out, but now Britt is back and they’ve added Kendall Wright. They have a better quarterback, but Washington should regress back to his 2008-2010 levels of statistical production.

Projection: 51 catches 750 yards 6 receiving touchdowns (111 pts standard/162 pts PPR)

TE Jared Cook (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

Jared Cook quietly emerged as one of the better tight ends in the league last year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and if his last 3 games were any indication (21 catches for 335 yards and 1 touchdown), he could be even better this year, especially if the Titans upgrade their quarterback situation from Hasselbeck to Locker.

Projection: 54 catches 820 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/166 pts PPR)



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