QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville)

If Blaine Gabbert is on your fantasy team, you’re an idiot.

Projection: 2780 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, no rushing touchdowns (161 pts standard, 195 pts in 6 pt TD league)

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: MJD finally reported. Rashad Jennings will get the week 1 start regardless and could get the bulk of the carries for the first 2 weeks or so of the season as MJD gets back into football shape and learns the offense. There are also way too many similarities to the Chris Johnson holdout last year for me to be comfortable projecting MJD’s usual level of production until the 2^nd half of the season (Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC through the first 8 games last year and 4.8 through the final 8). MJD is also a candidate to get hurt lose carries some more carries than he originally would have is Jennings impresses in his tryout as starter. I’m moving him up, but he’s hardly a sure thing fantasy running back.

8/27/12: Maurice Jones-Drew has yet to report and says he’d “welcome a trade,” though he also said he’d prefer to stay in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have announced that Rashad Jennings will start week 1 regardless as MJD will take some time to get back into top football shape and because he missed an entire offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in.

This is a smart move by the Jaguars because this situation is eerily similar to Chris Johnson’s situation last year and Johnson averaged 3.0 yards per carry for the first half of the season before looking like his old self and averaging 4.8 per in the 2^nd half of the season. Don’t expect MJD’s production to resemble his normal levels of production until around midseason and he’s also an obvious injury risk if he’s out of shape. Remember, he’s had a lot of usage over the past 3 years (1084 touches). Those types of guys are injury risks to begin with.

7/1/12: Maurice Jones Drew might be the most serious holdout this year. The Jaguars are refusing to even talk contract right now with him and he should miss at least the start of Training Camp unless something drastically changes. This reminds me a lot of Chris Johnson’s holdout last year and Johnson was out of shape as a result of it. MJD is also coming off leading the league in carries, which means he could be more worn down this season, and he’s on a terrible offense that isn’t in the red zone much and frequently faces 8 man fronts. He’s incredibly talented, but I’d let someone else take him in the 1^st round.

Maurice Jones Drew led the league in carries last year. History suggests that this means he’ll have a down year this year. At the same time, he’s so talented, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had yet another fantastic season. He probably won’t have the 343 carries he had last year, especially with his top backup Rashad Jennings coming back from injury. His YPC and touchdown potential are also stagnated by the offense he plays on. Nonetheless, he should be one of the top fantasy backs this year.

Projection: 250 carries 1080 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 300 receiving yards (186 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

RB Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: Jennings obviously moves down with MJD coming back. He’ll probably have RB2/flex value for the first couple weeks of the season, but he’ll need an MJD injury to remain startable at any point the rest of the season. He still has the most value as a handcuff for MJD owners.

8/27/12: Jennings obviously gets a stock up with Maurice Jones Drew going down. He’ll get the week 1 start either way and could see a lot of action early in the season. Still, I wouldn’t draft him at his current ADP in the 8^th round unless I had Maurice Jones-Drew on my roster (and likewise, I wouldn’t draft MJD without targeting Jennings in the mid rounds). There are too many unknowns here to just own one. Jennings could get two starts and then be a pure backup for the rest of the season. It’s definitely possible.

7/1/12: Jennings is a valuable handcuff to MJD owners the way Javon Ringer was for Chris Johnson owners last season.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 21 catches 170 receiving yards (110 pts standard/131 pts PPR)

WR Laurent Robinson (Jacksonville)

8/7/12: This is not what you want to hear. Laurent Robinson, a one year wonder who could regress after signing a giant contract with a team with that has a terrible quarterback, is reportedly really struggling in Training Camp and he and his team even admits it. I guess that’s what happens when you give 32.5 million over 5 years to a receiver who was a final cut last offseason. Stay away.

Before last season, Laurent Robinson never had more than 37 catches for 437 yards in a season and might revert now that he has gotten a big deal. Even if he doesn’t, we might not notice because Gabbert sucks too much for any of his receivers to be fantasy starters until further notice. Stay away.

Projection: 40 catches 530 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (77 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)

8/7/12: Justin Blackmon was bound to struggle anyway this season because his quarterback sucks and because rookie receivers never do anything. On top of that, he missed a large portion of Training Camp with a contract dispute. Stay away.

Justin Blackmon is an incredibly talented player, but rookie receivers typically struggle (don’t see Green, AJ and Jones, Julio) and Blackmon’s quarterback situation is a mess. Stay away in redraft leagues.

Projection:  44 catches 550 yards 4 receiving touchdowns (79 pts standard/123 pts PPR)

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