QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)
8/27/12: Wilson has some intrigue as QB2 with upside because of his rushing ability. However, considering the history of non-1st round pick rookie quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks in general, I don’t really like his upside. Wilson will become just the 5th non-1st round pick quarterback to get his team’s week 1 start since 1994. Other than Andy Dalton last year, they’ve all thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns.
He probably won’t throw for a high YPA (even Dalton last year averaged just 6.6 YPA) and the Seahawks ran one of the most conservative offenses in the league last year, passing just 509 times.With a rookie quarterback under center, they’ll only get more conservative, especially since with a mobile, run happy quarterback like Wilson.
As a passer, I don’t like his chances to even exceed the 3091 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions that Tarvaris Jackson threw for last season. He might if he plays all 16 games, but Pete Carroll loves constant competition at positions and likely wouldn’t hesitate to pull Wilson for Flynn, now one of the league’s most expensive backups, if he struggles.
Projection: 2930 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard/217 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)
8/27/12: Wilson under center will be a good thing for Lynch. The Seahawks will become even more conservative and run more, while Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up on the ground for Lynch. I still don’t like Lynch to match his 2011 production because he’s an injury prone, one hit wonder, known for slacking off and probably will now that he’s gotten paid, but I’m moving him up.
8/13/12: It sounds like Lynch won’t be suspended, at least in 2012, as Roger Goodell wants to wait until the result of his DUI case before assigning any penalty. That likely means that any suspension would take place in 2013, if ever. I still don’t like him this year, as a one year wonder, behind a poor offensive line, after getting a new contract, but I’m bumping him back up to my original projection for him.
7/26/12: Lynch was arrested again. He’s already been suspended for 3 games in the past so I expect some sort of 2-4 game suspension again for him. He also runs behind a poor offensive line (which is why he averaged just 4.2 YPC last year) and he was pretty mediocre in 2009-2010. Let him be someone else’s problem.
Lynch is another back I’m staying away from. He’s only managed more than 202 carries once in the last 3 years and that was last year. He’s been an underachiever most of his career and I expect that to be the case next year now that he’s gotten a new contract. He’s also often injured because of his running style.
Projection: 250 carries 1100 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 20 catches 170 receiving yards (187 pts standard/207 pts PPR)
RB Robert Turbin (Seattle)
8/27/12: Turbin has had a great preseason and while he’ll be Lynch’s primary backup, Lynch could easily miss a couple games with injury and/or struggle and cede a few more carries to Turbin than a true feature back would. On top of that, the Seahawks will run more with Russell Wilson under center and Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up for him on the ground.
8/13/12: Moving Turbin back down as his value is tied to Marshawn Lynch’s. He’s still a name to know because Lynch will probably underachieve and/or get hurt, but he’s not really draftable.
7/26/12: In Marshawn Lynch’s absence, Robert Turbin will be the lead back because Leon Washington is just a change of pace, 3rd down back, and return man. He should be a RB3 or so for a few games to start the season and then from there, you never know. This situation reminds me of 2009 when Lynch was suspended.
A then unknown Fred Jackson had 402 yards from scrimmage in the first 3 games and performed so well that he got carries the rest of the season, finishing the year with 1433 yards from scrimmage. He was also a valuable trade chip after week 3 to unaware fantasy owners. He’s definitely worth a late round pick. He’s got plenty of upside.
If Lynch misses any time, Turbin will be the lead back. He’ll also probably handle 3rd down duties immediately. I don’t know if I’d draft him, but he’s a name to know.
Projection: 130 carries 600 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (106 pts standard/126 pts PPR)
WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)
8/27/12: Terrell Owens has been cut. Sidney Rice has been cleared for contact and will likely start week 1. Remember, he’s only exceeded 32 catches for 484 yards once in his 5 year career, but he’s incredibly talented when healthy and caught 82 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009. He’s definitely worth a late round flier.
8/7/12: Sidney Rice is not expected to be cleared to be cleared for contact for most of the Preseason. It’s mostly precautionary and he should be out there week 1, but it’s definitely not a good sign. Neither is the fact that they’ve signed Antonio Bryant (eventually cut 10 days later), Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens in the last couple weeks. He’s still got upside if he can stay healthy and he’s worth a late round flier, but his current ADP in the 9th round is too high. He’s had 3 concussions and 2 shoulder surgeries in the last calendar year. He’s almost definitely going to be a fantasy dud this season.
In 5 years in the league, Rice has only surpassed 32 catches for 484 yards once. Of course, he had 83 catches for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns that year, but he’s still the definition of boom or bust. He’s had 2 shoulder surgeries and 3 concussions in the last calendar year, but he should be out there week 1. He’s still the Seahawks’ #1 receiver and there’s definitely upside with him with a new quarterback, but there’s also a clear downside.
Projection: 50 catches 750 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (105 pts standard/155 pts PPR)
WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)
8/27/12: I’m moving Baldwin down slightly because Rice is healthy and because I don’t like the quarterback and because Baldwin is nursing his own injury right now, though he’s expected to play week 1. Baldwin led the team in receiving last year, but only out of necessity and was hardly a fantasy stud doing it. On what figures to be a mediocre passing offense, Rice is really the only receiver worth owning and only for his upside as a late round flier.
8/7/12: Sidney Rice is a major injury risk, Braylon Edwards is no sure thing, and Terrell Owens is done. Doug Baldwin will probably lead the team in receiving again. In his 2nd year in the league, he could definitely improve on his 51 catches for 777 yards and 4 touchdowns from last season, especially if Matt Flynn proves to be an upgrade at quarterback.
Baldwin had 51 catches for 788 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie and led the team in receiving. However, that was pretty much out of necessity. He might do that again this year, but then again, they could get more out of Sidney Rice.
Projection: 51 catches 710 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (95 pts standard/146 pts PPR)