1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 27 games, including the playoffs, Rodgers has thrown for 72 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 7912 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 43 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 4689 yards. He’s also rushed for 1136 yards and 12 touchdowns in 4 years. Yeah, he’s the top fantasy quarterback. Your biggest concern with him if he’s your fantasy quarterback is that the Packers have such a good season that he doesn’t have to play weeks 16-17.

Projection: 4580 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (375 pts standard, 455 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

2. Tom Brady (New England)

8/7/12: I’m moving Brady’s production up a little with Brandon Lloyd dominating in camp. Tom Brady was 346 for 470 (73.6%) for 4420 yards (9.4 YPA), 39 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions when throwing to Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. Throwing to everyone else, he was 131 of 216 (60.6%), 1719 yards (8.0 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (the rest were throw aways and other non-targets). Brandon Lloyd will undoubtedly help, as will the presence of Josh McDaniels.

Tom Brady threw for 5235 yards last year on the strength of 611 passing attempts, but he’s only twice gone over 580 attempts in a season and the Patriots should have a better defense next year. I also think his 8.5 YPA from last year is unsustainable as he’s only gone over 8 twice in his career. The other time he did that was 2007, when Josh McDaniels was his offensive coordinator.

McDaniels is back, but Brady is also aging, turning 35 in August. He had noticeably diminished arm strength in 2011 and completed just 16 passes that went further than 20 yards in the air. He has a strong receiving corps, but I like Brees and Stafford a little bit more because of how much their offenses pass. They won’t have to average more than 8 YPA to approach 5000 yards.

Projection: 4730 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (332 pts standard/408 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

3. Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Drew Brees was insane last season with 5476 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He won’t be that good again for 3 reasons. One, no one does that. Two, he lost one of his starting receivers, Robert Meachem. Three, he lost his Head Coach. He should see his YPA go down, as well as his TD:INT ratio, but the Saints have thrown the ball 1315 times in the last 2 years so Brees has a chance to get 5000 yards again. They didn’t make an outside hire for interim head coach so the offensive philosophy will remain the same.

Projection: 4930 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (325 pts standard/401 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

4. Matt Stafford (Detroit)

7/26/12: Like with Megatron, nothing new to report here, but my projections were a little high here. He’s unlikely to have 663 passing attempts again and he’s only once played all 16 games. He’s still a one year wonder not quite on the level of Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. He’s still a nice value if you can get him in the 3^rd round though.

I like Matt Stafford’s chances to approach 5000 yards again as well. No team passes the ball more than the Lions. They passed 663 times last year and 633 times in 2010 without Stafford. He has a ton of weapons in Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, Nate Burleson, Ryan Broyles, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler. He might not throw for 41 touchdowns again, but he still deserves to be a high pick in fantasy circles.

Projection: 4720 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard/375 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

5. Cam Newton (Carolina)

7/26/12: One of the things I realized while writing my season preview for the Panthers is that a predictable decrease in rushing touchdowns for Newton would led to not only Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams rushing for more touchdowns, but also Newton throwing for more touchdowns, even if he does have a predictable sophomore slump.

Cam Newton could be overdrafted based on what he did last year. He’s still a strong QB1, but I think there’s a good distance between him and the 4 quarterbacks above him on this list. Anyone who expects him to rush for 14 touchdowns again doesn’t understand football. The all time leader in CAREER rushing touchdowns by a quarterback is Steve Young, who had 43. Young never had more than 7 in any single season. That number is a fluke if I’ve ever seen one. He’ll probably run less overall to preserve his health long term. He could also see his passing numbers decrease slightly with Steve Smith aging and the possibility of a sophomore slump.

Projection: 3920 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 600 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns (298 pts standard/342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

6. Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

8/27/12: I was worried about how Matt Ryan would do in the Falcons’ new offense because it didn’t seem to fit his skill set. I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Ryan has completed 45 of 60 (75.0%) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Only Russell Wilson has a higher QB rating than him. He’s got plenty of upside in the Falcons’ new explosive offense and plenty of weapons around him. He looks ready for a career year.

7/26/12: Again, nothing new to report here, but when I was doing Atlanta’s season preview, I got a better feel for the type of season we can expect from Ryan this year. He’ll be asked to throw downfield for often and throw more often overall, which should lead to a career high in yards, but also to a career high in interceptions and a career low in completion percentage. Ryan is one of the least accurate deep throwers in the NFL over his career, completing just 31.9% of his passes that go 20+ yards in the air in his career, including 25% last year. This is opposed to 64.4% on the rest of his throws.

Matt Ryan is nothing, but consistent. And boring. But, you can call it consistent. In 2010, he had 3705 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. In 2011, 4177 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He should have a similar season this year, only slightly better as I’m projecting a breakout season from Julio Jones.

Projection: 4430 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdowns (291 pts standard/353 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

7. Tony Romo (Dallas)

He takes a lot of heat in real life, but Romo is a great fantasy quarterback, possibly underrated, in fact. With the exception of 2010 when he played just 6 games, he’s averaged 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and he’s gone over 4100 yards in his last three 16 game seasons.

Projection: 4320 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (280 pts standard/338 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

8. Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Philip Rivers inexplicably regressed last season and had one of his worst seasons as a starter and certainly an inferior season to his past 3. I like his chances to bounce back, but at the same time, he’s also lost Vincent Jackson, his top receiver. Then again, he did fine without Jackson in 2010 when he was holding out so he should be fine.

It says a lot that Rivers can still deservingly go to the Pro Bowl in 2011, even though he had such a disappointing season that people wondered all year whether or not he was hurt. In his last 6 games in 2011, he had 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 1601 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 4269 yards. He should be fine. I conservatively averaged his numbers from his last 2 seasons to get my projections.

Projection: 4670 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (275 pts standard/333 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

9. Robert Griffin (Washington)

Cam Newton’s rookie season has fantasy players very excited about Robert Griffin and rightfully so. Griffin won’t rush for the 14 touchdowns Newton rushed for because, well no one does that. As I said under Cam Newton’s write up, the all-time leader in quarterback rushing touchdowns is Steve Young with 43. In his career. And he never had more than 7 in a single season.

He might not rush for as many yards either, but he’s a more refined passer at this stage of his career than Newton was so he could have better passing numbers, especially in Mike Shanahan’s passer friendly offense. They passed 591 times in 2011 with Rexohn Grossbeck. At the very least, I think Griffin will threw fewer interceptions than Newton’s 17. Griffin is a solid low-end QB1 at worst with good upside.

Projection: 3800 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 440 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (272 pts standard/312 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

10. Jake Locker (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here. For the short version, I feel the same away about the Titans and Jake Locker that I felt about Matt Stafford and the Lions last year. You have to be conservative, but even if you are, Locker makes a lot of sense as a low end QB1. That team has drafted so well in the past 4-5 years and looks ready to pop.

8/20/12: The Titans have named Jake Locker starting quarterback. Locker averaged 8.2 YPA and had 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions last season, but he also only completed 51.5% of his passes. He has accuracy issues dating back to his days at Washington and if his last Preseason start is any indication (4-11 for 21 yards), those aren’t past him. He has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (270 pts standard/320 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

11. Peyton Manning (Denver)

I’m projecting a down season for Peyton Manning for several reasons. For one, he’s going to a new team, in a new division, with a new system, and new players, new coaches, new surroundings, everything new. The continuity is gone for Peyton Manning, which is never a good thing. Two, he’s got inferior players around him, at least in comparison to the 2000s Colts or even the 2010 Colts, which had two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, who almost had 1000 yard seasons last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky.

Three, he was out of football all last year. In 2010, he struggled by his standards for half a season after just missing training camp. Four, he’s coming off of 4 neck surgeries in 2 years. Enough said. Five, he’s 36 and a declining player. He was a declining player even in 2010 and that was 3 neck surgeries and almost 2 years ago. His arm strength wasn’t what it used to be and I can’t imagine it’s any better now. I expect him to have a season worse than 2010, when he had 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 touchdowns, particularly because he won’t throw the ball 679 times, which he did in 2010.

Projection: 4370 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (264 pts standard/322 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

12. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

Like Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck should be a solid QB1 with upside as a rookie. I expect him to have better passing numbers than either Newton or Griffin, but he won’t match either of their rushing numbers, which is why Griffin has the advantage over Luck in fantasy, at least for this year.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 240 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (260 pts standard/306 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

13. Eli Manning (NY Giants)

This might seem a little low for the Super Bowl MVP, but Eli has never been an elite fantasy quarterback. The Giants will probably pass less this year after they added a first round running back in David Wilson to compliment Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, I don’t expect Manning to maintain a completely uncharacteristic 8.4 YPA from last season. Before that, his career high was 7.9 and he’s only twice gone over 7.4. In fact, I don’t expect Eli to even approach the near 5000 yards he had last year. Before last year, his career high was 4021 yards. Expect a regression towards the norm for ELIte.

Projection: 4160 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (253 pts standard/311 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

14. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo)

There’s upside to be had here. In 7 games before going down with a rib injury last year, Fitzpatrick threw for 1739 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. After 7 games, Fitzpatrick really struggled, but that rib injury, as well as injuries to offensive players like Demetress Bell, Eric Wood, and Fred Jackson, were probably largely to blame. Over 16 games, that’s 3975 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

Of course, he had never done anything like that in his career before then and it’s possible he gets hurt again, so there is downside for the league’s leader in interceptions last year. I basically averaged those projected stats with his actual stats from last year to get my projection for him. I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my starter, but if I couldn’t grab an elite quarterback to be my starter and had to settle for a middle of the run starter, Fitzpatrick would probably be my choice as a high upside backup if available.

Projection: 3900 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 220 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (252 pts standard/304 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

15. Matt Schaub (Houston)

There was a time when Schaub was an elite fantasy quarterback, but the Texans have become more of a run heavy team with Arian Foster and Ben Tate over these past few years. In fact, in 10 games last year, Schaub threw the ball 292 times, which translates to 467 times over 16 games. They should pass a bit more than that this year, but if they don’t, and Schaub can’t maintain his career high 8.5 YPA from last year, he could throw for less than 4000 yards. He also only had 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 10 games last year, meaning 25 and 10 over 16 games. And then, of course, he’s missed at least 5 games in 3 of 5 years as a starter. He’s pretty low on the fantasy totem pole this year. This might even be a little high.

Projection:  4120 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (247 pts standard/297 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

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