Ugh. Another overpaid wide receiver. The only wide receiver who has been paid fairly this offseason was Marques Colston and maybe Vincent Jackson (Steve Johnson before free agency too). Laurent Robinson got 5 years, 32.5 million, with 14 million guaranteed. That’s barely less than Marques Colston (5 years, 40 million, with 19 million guaranteed).

Robinson had just 89 catches in 4 seasons before a breakout season in a contract year in Dallas last season, catching 54 passes for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s a one year wonder and that one year came in a contract year, which is always fishy. It’s also fishy that he chased money to go Jacksonville, where he won’t win or put up stats with Blaine Gabbert. Finally, wide receivers are always a risk changing teams in the offseason.

Grade: D

 

 

I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Late Round Value Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the late rounds (13^th-15^th) of a 12 team draft, that doesn’t have the upside of a high upside sleeper, but is just flat out being overlooked. They are a relatively safe pick that you can count on to be worth slightly more than the round you draft them in.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com

I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Upside Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the late rounds (13^th-15^th) of a 12 team draft, that has the potential to be a lot more productive than where they are getting drafted. They aren’t guaranteed to be great players, but they have the potential to be worth a lot more than where they are drafted.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.

WR Brandon LaFell CAR 

ADP: 170th 

8/10/10: As I suspected he could, Brandon LaFell is shining in Steve Smith’s absence and is likely to beat out the terrible Dwayne Jarrett for the #2 receiving job. John Fox doesn’t normally start rookies, but that just goes to show you how talented a 3^rd rounder this kid is and how horrible a receiver Dwayne Jarrett is. Smith is extremely injury prone so LaFell would have major value in his absense and Smith is also 5-9 so the 6-2 LaFell is probably going to be Matt Moore’s favorite goal line wide out. He is some, but not huge fantasy upside this year and is worth a late round pick in some leagues.

6/29/10: If anyone is going to benefit from Smith’s injury, it’s LaFell. LaFell hasn’t been seeing a lot of time with the first time in practice, but that’s because Carolina coach John Fox always gives veterans the first shot at winning a starting job and LaFell is a 3^rd round pick rookie. 4^th year receiver Dwayne Jarrett has been getting all the first team reps in camp opposite Smith, but with Smith out, Fox really has no choice but to give LaFell more work. If he impresses with the first team, he could take the job from Jarrett. There’s no question in my mind that LaFell is more talented than Jarrett, even as a rookie. Jarrett has been horrible in his first 3 years since being drafted in the 2^nd out of USC. He has, on many occasions, looked completely lost on the football field. If LaFell takes the starting job from him, he could have some fantasy value, especially if Smith doesn’t come back 100% opposite him. I’m not ready to make him a sleeper yet, but keep your eye on him. 

WR Mike Thomas- JAC

ADP: 170th

I loved Thomas coming out of school and he will be the #2 receiver for the Jaguars this year. He should be able to get close to Torry Holt’s yards from 2009, 772 yards. He’s not an endzone threat, but he could end up leading the team in receiving yards if Mike Sims Walker stays inconsistent next year.

TE Jermaine Gresham- CIN

ADP: 140th

I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end this year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option. 

RB Bernard Scott- CIN

ADP: 148th

6/29/10: If Benson gets suspended, Scott looks like the go to back. He’s very talented and can put up numbers for you. Scott was already a fantasy sleeper of mine because of Benson’s history of injuries and arrestes, but now he becomes even more of a fantasy sleeper as Benson’s history rears its head again.

Cedric Benson is not the most durable guy in NFL history and he had a ton of carries last year, 301. If Benson gets hurt this year, Scott will benefit and be a solid RB2 for a few weeks. Benson’s 2009 may have also been a fluke.

 

QB Josh Freeman- TB

ADP: 170th

Freeman put in a ton of work in the off season and he has former 1^st round pick talent. He had a horrible and horribly inconsistent rookie year last year, but he has upside of this year because of his work ethic and his natural physical abilities and talent. His supporting cast won’t help him out as much as Sanchez’ or Stafford’s will, but he still is a high upside QB2. 

WR Mike Williams- TB

ADP: 136th

8/31/10: Williams has looked amazing this preseason and is the clear #1 wide receiver for the Bucs.

QB Matt Moore- CAR

ADP: 170th

Moore wasn’t much better than Clausen in their 2^nd preseason game as, even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary completely shut down the Panthers aerial attack. However, Clausen’s performance was so bad he all but eliminated himself from the starting job competition. Moore looks like the guy and therefore an interesting late round sleeper. Despite his 2^nd week performance, Moore is still a talented and underrated quarterback who put up solid numbers to end the last year. He is the reason why I believe the Panthers will win many games against spread. This is a very underrated bunch.

WR Legedu Naanee- SD 

ADP: 170th 

9/3/10: The Chargers have traded for Patrick Crayton who will likely cut into Naanee’s targets. 

9/2/10: With Jackson out, Naanee would become a starter in the Chargers offense. He has looked decent in the preseason and has some late round upside. 

7/24/10: If Jackson holds out, Naanee will be their starter for 6 weeks, instead of 3. He’ll probably go to the bench when Jackson shows up, but they might be so mad at him they don’t even hurt him. Naanee is a shot at a very good and surprising fantasy season.

WR Louis Murphy- OAK

ADP: 145th

8/24/10: With Schilens out, the 2^nd year Murphy shined. Murphy was their best receiver when he played last year, with Darrius Heyward Bey struggling and Schilens not 100% after his foot injury, and if Schilens is less than 100% again or misses anytime, Murphy could be a solid WR3 for a few weeks. He’s worth a look late in your fantasy draft. He’d be a huge fantasy player if Schilens missed any time with a foot injury or knee surgery.

WR Brandon Gibson- STL

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Someone has to lead the Rams in receiving with Avery down…right? With Avery down and Laurent Robinson unable to catch a single ball, on 4 targets, in his absense, Gibson, who showed flashes of good things to come last year as a rookie, could end up as the top receiver in St. Louis. 

TE Rob Gronkowski- NE

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Gronkowski definitely doesn’t look like a rookie this preseason. He’s a big physical tight end and he should be the starter in New England’s explosive offense. He’s not going to be a top 15 tight end of mine, but he’s certainly someone to keep your eye on. He looks like a true end zone weapon. 

WR Brian Hartline- MIA 

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Hartline has looked good in the preseason so far and with Greg Camarillo gone, there are fewer talented receivers to steal receptions from him. He’s someone to keep your eye on as Miami’s #2 receiver. 

WR Mike Williams- SEA

ADP: 170th

9/3/10: Housh is out. Deion Branch is injury prone. That leaves Mike Williams and Deon Butler as the only two potentially fantasy worthy receiver on the team. Williams is more athletic than the 2nd year Butler, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Butler ended up the team leader in receiving yards. 

 

 

Oh, the Redskins overpaid a washed up veteran again? Why am I not surprised? This happens every offseason. Larry Johnson wasn’t good last year. He had that one good game in Cincinnati, 107 yards on 22 carries, you should never sign someone for 3 years 12 million based on one game. Take away that one game and he rushed for 474 yards on 156 carries, a bit less than 3 yards per carry. He also didn’t score a touchdown all year. He’s had off the field issues, arrests inappropriate and unnecessary comments about his coaching staff and the gay community, and, from what I hear, he’s also not very pleasant in the locker room. When he was in his last days in Kansas City last year, a group of the fan base grouped together to demand that he be released so that he would not set the Chiefs all time rushing record. This doesn’t sound like a guy I’d want on my team at all. He turns 31 next season and this deal will take him until he’s 33. Unlike Chester Taylor, Larry Johnson’s legs are not still fresh as he has 1421 career carries, 752 of which came in a two year stretch, never a good thing for a running back’s legs. About the signing, Larry Johnson said that he envisioned himself and Clinton Portis as what he and Priest Holmes once were for the Chiefs. Something tells me that a washed up Clinton Portis (soon to be 29 years old, 2176 career carries, coming off of an injury plagued season, 4.0 YPC last year) and a washed up Larry Johnson won’t be anything near what a still somewhat in his heyday Priest Holmes and a young, powerful Larry Johnson were for the Chiefs in 2003-2004. I think the Redskins just made this move because Owner Daniel Snyder was getting antsy sitting on his fat checkbook and had to write a fat check to make a big splash and put the focus back on him. Johnson is not going to contribute to this team in anyway big way next year and I would not be surprised if both Head Coach Mike Shanahan and GM Bruce Allen were against this move. Plus, free agency is supposed to be a bidding type thing. I highly doubt Larry Johnson had a deal anywhere worth anywhere near this much money lined up anywhere else. The Redskins don’t bid and negotiate and bargain, they just throw money.

Grade: D

 

Well, that Kevin Kolb deal looks a lot smarter now. They didn’t have a chance to resign Fitz without Kolb, but now they have Fitzgerald under contract for 8 years after giving him an 8 year 120 million dollar extension with 50 million in guarantees. That’s an absolutely huge deal. Given Andre Johnson got 7 years 63 million last offseason, I was expecting max 6 years 78 million for Fitz. The 50 million in guarantees is tied for 2^nd with Sam Bradford’s rookie contract in terms of most guaranteed money ever in a single contract. Peyton Manning’s fully guaranteed 5 year 90 million dollar deal is 1^st in that category.

The total amount, 120 million, is 2^nd behind Michael Vick’s 2005 extension (10 years 130 million) in terms of richest contracts. 15 million per year makes him the 4^th highest paid player in the league behind Brady, Manning (both at 18 million per year) and Michael Vick (16 million dollar franchise tag) and tied with Richard Seymour (15 million). Add in the fact that in order to get Fitz to reign, they had to give 63 million (21 million guaranteed) over 5 years to a largely unknown commodity in Kevin Kolb, as well as give up a 2^nd rounder and a 25-year-old starting cornerback to get Kolb from Philadelphia. Basically, Fitz was expensive. However, is he worth it?

I want to say no. I like to look at comparable players and what they are making. There really is no comparison among wide receivers. Andre Johnson got 7 years 63 million with 48 million guaranteed last offseason. Fitz got almost double that over just 1 more season. DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, the next 2 receivers likely to get long term deals, must be thrilled, as should be Chris Johnson who suddenly has more leverage as he seeks a deal worth 39 million over the first 3 years. Calvin Johnson got 6 years 55.5 million with 27 million guaranteed as the 2^nd overall pick in 2007. Vincent Jackson is actually the highest paid receiver in the league at 11.4 million, but that’s because he’s the only receiver in the league who has been franchise tagged.

To get some perspective on Fitzgerald’s deal, we have to look at the deals of franchise quarterback type players. Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers all came out in 2004 with Fitz and all 4 have gotten deals similar to what Fitz got. Ben Roethlisberger got 8 years 102 million with 33.2 million guaranteed. Philip Rivers got 7 years 98 million with 38.2 million guaranteed. Eli Manning got 7 years 107.9 million with 35 million guaranteed. So the question becomes, is Fitz worth as much to his team as those 3 are too their teams? I have to say no. The Cardinals won 5 games last year. I know Fitz had no help, but I couldn’t see the Giants, Steelers or Chargers ever going 5-11 or worse as long their starting quarterback was healthy, no matter how bad their supporting cast was. Given that, the Cardinals overpaid.

However, the Cardinals almost had to do this. Fitzgerald is the team. He might not be a quarterback, but no receiver is worth more to a team than Fitzgerald. He wants to be there. He’s a class act. He’s been underpaid for the past 3 years and even offered to take a pay cut if it meant the Cardinals could keep Anquan Boldin. He caught 90 passes for 1137 yards and 6 touchdowns last season with a steaming pile of crap at quarterback. They did give out a lot of money to Kolb and Fitzgerald, but did they have another choice? Trade for Orton, let Fitz walk, and go 4-12 forever? That was their other option. They overpaid, but it’s worth it.

Grade: B

 

 

 

Safety

Nebraska

6-0 212

40 time: 4.63

Draft board overall prospect rank: NR

Draft board offensive tackle rank: NR

Overall rating: 55*

            3/29/10: I am not a huge fan of Taylor Mays, but I think hands down Larry Asante is the most overrated safety in this draft class, as hard as it is for a safety to be overrated. He’s a strong hitter, but he doesn’t have amazing size. He really struggles in coverage. His backpedal and instincts are very poor and he lacks good speed, both in backpedal and in recovery. His hands aren’t great and he doesn’t play the ball in the air very often. Unless Taylor Mays, and prospects in the past like Roy Williams, he doesn’t have the natural speed or athleticism to be able to improve in coverage. His upside is not very high. I am not saying his slow just because of his 40 time, but he looked slow on the field last year all the time. I’ll admit, he’s plus against the run and was very plus against the run last year, but because of his size, I am not sure he will be the same in the NFL against bigger ball carriers, ball carriers bigger than him and he’s not an amazing tackler, so that could be an issue as well. At the very best, I think this is a guy who should be drafted as a depth strong safety and a special teamer, but he’ll probably be drafted in the 3^rd or 4^th round, rather than the 5^th where he belongs. I think he’ll probably be a waste of a draft pick for someone.

NFL Comparison: Dawan Landry

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Landry is an injury risk, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 18^th rated safety last season and this is a weak safety class in the draft and free agency. He probably won’t make it through the whole season, but 4 million over a year isn’t a lot and the Jets were desperate for safety help.

Grade: B

 

 

Lardarius Webb is not a well known player, but he’s one of the top 5 cornerbacks in the NFL when healthy. ProFootballFocus ranked him 4^th among cornerbacks and 4^th in QB rating allowed among cornerbacks who played more than 75% of their team’s snaps with a 55.6 QB rating allowed. He had 5 interceptions and was one of 2 cornerbacks who played more than 75% of their team’s snaps who didn’t allow a touchdown. The Ravens were somewhat in danger of losing him with just a first round tender on him and they got a good deal resigning him for 52.74 million over 6 years. Just 27 in October, I think Webb was a better value signing than Cortland Finnegan or Brandon Carr were this offseason. The only concern is that he missed most of 2010 with an ACL injury and he has an injury history.

Grade: A

 

 

6 years 61.5 million with 22.5 million guaranteed may be a little much for someone who has never proven himself without James Harrison. However, Woodley is only 26 and he has 35 sacks in the last 3 seasons and this move helps their immediate cap situation so it makes a lot of sense.

Grade: A