This deal is so stupid. DeAngelo Williams is 28 and has never had more than 273 carries in a season and only twice gone above 144 carries in his 5 year career. This is a 5 year deal that takes him until he’s 33. If he can’t stay healthy now, how is he going to stay healthy at age 33? Given that fact, him getting 43 million over 5 years with 21 million of that guaranteed is ridiculous. Besides, running backs are fairly interchangeable and the Panthers already have two solid backs in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. This is such a stupid move. In the past 2 days, the Panthers have committed 127 million (57 million guaranteed) to a defensive end with only one year of starting experience, a 28 year old running back who can’t stay healthy, and a kicker. And people wonder why they went 2-14 last year.

I realize the Panthers went 2-14 last year and have to overspend to sign guys, but overspending because it’s the only way to sign guys is not how you build a playoff team. That’s how you build the Oakland Raiders or the Washington Redskins. The good teams, the Patriots, the Colts, the Saints, the Packers, never spend big money unless the player is worth it. In the Panthers case with Williams, he wasn’t worth it.

Grade: F

Safety

Clemson

6-0 217

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #72

Draft Board Overall Safety Rank: #3

Rating: 74 (Early 3rd)

40 time: 4.64

2/20/11: If he had come out in 2009, McDaniel probably would have been a first round pick. He had good triangle numbers and was coming off a season in which he had 8 picks, one of which was a pick six. The name Darren Sharper was being thrown around as a comparison. However, he returned for his senior year and now could very well fall into the 3^rd round. His interception total was cut in half, and, even worse, he really struggled in coverage.

McDaniel may have the 12 picks in 2 years, but his strength is the run, not the pass. He may pick off a good amount of passes, but he doesn’t match up one-on-one well or patrol a zone well. He’s often out of position. He’s really stiff in his backpedal. He’s got good hands and a good nose for the football and could be a ballhawk center fielder type strong safety at the next level, but he’s not a good cover safety or a free safety.

He is good against the run. He likes the big hits and occasionally forgets to wrap up, but overall he is stronger against the run than against the pass. He does need to become more consistent. His motor is really inconsistent and he’ll become invisible for stretches of time, but overall he’s better against the run than against the pass.

The upside is there, but he does need to be coached up. I think he’ll end up going in the 3^rd round, but he does have first round upside. He’s got good triangle numbers at 6-0, 6-1 in the 210s with a 4.4 40 and he does have that ballhawk capability.

NFL Comparison: William Moore

Dawan Landry is a hell of a run stopper with 200 tackles combined in the last 2 years as a strong safety for the Baltimore Ravens. He was better in coverage last year, but in 2009, he was one of the worst safeties in coverage in the league. Plus, he’s spent his entire career next to Ed Reed and with a great front 7 in front of him. He could easily be the product of a great supporting cast. The Jaguars needed safety help and Landry is definitely better than anything they had there last year, but giving him 5 years 27.5 million with 10.5 million of that guaranteed might not look like a smart move in a few years if Landry is just an average safety or worse in the league.

Grade: C

Look I understand this team has to spend a lot of money to get to the salary floor, but how about doing that on good players? This team hasn’t made a single outside move in free agency this year, yet they resign a marginal linebacker in Quincy Black for 29 million over 5 years and then give a one dimensional GUARD who is coming off a season ending injury a 7 year deal worth 53 million dollars with 19 million guaranteed. Joseph is a great run blocker, but he struggles in pass protection. There is no way this guy deserved to get just 4 million dollars less than Jahri Evans, the best guard in the league, did last offseason. Unbelievable. This might be the single worst signing this offseason.

Grade: F

Running Back

Virginia Tech

5-10 206

Draft board overall prospect rank: #57

Draft board overall running back rank: #4

Overall rating: 75 (2nd/3^rd round)

40 time: 4.40

Games watched: Miami/Virginia Tech, VT/North Carolina, Michigan/Virginia Tech

Positives

·         Amazing athleticism (4.40 40, 41 vertical, 11-0 broad jump)

·         Incredibly productive 2011 season (1709 yards and 9 touchdowns on 290 carries)

·         Consistent with 10/14 games going over 100+

·         Tough, powerful runner

·         Deadly in the open field

·         Fast and quick

·         Breaks a lot of tackles

·         Makes guys miss

·         Fights for every last yard

·         Explosive with excellent burst

·         Shifty with great vision

·         Excellent cutting ability

·         Good pad level

·         Solid pass catcher (22 catches)

·         Relatively little tread on his tires (462 carries)

·         Adds value as a kick returner, scored twice in 2010

Negatives

·         Undersized (5-10 206)

·         Playing style at his size can lead to a lot of injuries at the next level

·         Needs to get more North and South – dances too much sometimes

·         7 fumbles last season

·         Only a one year starter

·         A one year wonder who came out of nowhere this season

·         Needs to become a better pass blocker to stay on 3^rd downs in the NFL

·         Wore down as the season progressed (under 100 yards in 3 of last 4 games)

·         Virginia Tech didn’t face a tough schedule in 2011

·         Struggled some against better defenses (Clemson, Michigan)

·         Low positional value

NFL Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw

David Wilson burst onto the scene this season. Following a strong line of Virginia Tech running backs, Wilson rushed for 1709 yards and 9 touchdowns on 290 carries this season as a junior, his only season as a starter. After being stuck behind Darren Evans and Ryan Williams for two years, Wilson broke out this season and went from being a potential late round pick to a likely 2^nd round pick in this month’s NFL Draft.

Wilson is incredibly tough to tackle with his combination of speed, explosiveness, and toughness. He breaks a ton of tackles on tape and fights for every yard. On the flip side, however, he dances too much in the open field and this often leads to plays that go for a loss when he should have at least gotten the ball back to the line of scrimmage or a gain of a couple. His physical running style at his smaller size (5-10 206) could lead to an injury riddled career in the NFL.

He is very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw is a smaller back with a similar running style and he’s had a fairly injury riddled career in the NFL, though he is definitely one of the league’s better backs when healthy, including a 1235 yard season in 2010. He and Bradshaw also share another problem, fumbling. In his only season as a starter, Wilson fumbled 7 times, significantly more than any of the other top running back prospects.

Bradshaw fumbled 7 times in 2010, but corrected the problem in the offseason, not fumbling once in 2011. Likewise, Wilson can also learn to correct this problem with coaching. Bradshaw is also a solid pass catcher, who struggles with pass protection. To earn 3^rd down duties early in his career, Wilson will have to become a much better pass protector.

I think Wilson is slightly overrated as a prospect. He only really has one good season and I think he was a bit overrated this year. Yes, he rushed for 1709 yards and 9 scores on 290 carries, but he did it against a weaker schedule (the same one that kept Virginia Tech out of the national title discussion, even when they had 1 loss). He struggled down the stretch and against tougher competition like Clemson and Michigan, both of whom held him under 4 yards per carry and 100 yards total.

I’m also not sure his running style and size will let him be a feature back at the next level like I think Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and Chris Polk (all of whom are rated higher than him on my board) can be. There’s also the issue of his position, one that is becoming devalued in the NFL. He’ll probably go in the 2^nd round, but I have a high 3^rd round grade on him. He’d be best as part of a one-two punch like Bradshaw with Brandon Jacobs in New York.

Interested teams in the 2^nd round will include St. Louis (to pair with Steven Jackson as he ages), Cleveland (to pair with Montario Hardesty, if healthy), New York Jets (to pair with Shonn Greene, his best fit in my opinion), San Diego (to pair with Ryan Matthews) Cincinnati (to pair with BenJarvus Green Ellis and Bernard Scott), Detroit (with Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, and Kevin Smith all being question marks) and Denver (to pair with Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno if healthy). He won’t get past Denver and should go in the top half of the 2^nd round as the 3^rd back off the board behind Richardson and Martin and likely before Lamar Miller. 

The Saints already signed Curtis Lofton this offseason, but could have used another linebacker because Martez Wilson is an unproven 2011 3^rd round pick, Chris Chamberlain is a mediocre starter, and Jonathan Vilma is an aging, declining player who could be suspended for a large portion of next season and/or cut. Hawthorne was a great value at 19 million over 5 years with just 4.5 million guaranteed (3.8 signing bonus and 700K first year salary).

I’m just wondering how the Saints are managing to fit all these deals under the cap. They were backed up against the cap, but they’ve still managed to resign Marques Colston, sign Ben Grubbs to replace Carl Nicks, and add 3 starters (Brodrick Bunkley, Curtis Lofton, and David Hawthorne) to their front 7, where they really needed help. I know they won’t have Sean Payton, but as long as they have Drew Brees, they should once again be the favorites in the NFC South against after 13 wins last season.

Grade: A

The Jets needed to give Harris a long term worth less per year than the franchise tender to save them cap space, just like the Raiders did with Kamerion Wimbley, but unlike Wimbley, Harris was kind of worth this. Did they overpay a little bit giving him 36 million over 4 years with 29.5 million in guarantees, but Harris is one of the best linebackers in the league so it wasn’t a huge overpay.

Grade: B

Trading up for Robert Griffin was plan A. Peyton Manning was plan B. Matt Flynn was plan C. Alex Smith was plan D. David Garrard…plan F. He’s not much of an upgrade over Matt Moore, but he’s an underrated quarterback who can compete with Moore and a rookie for the starting job in camp.

He’s only 34 and completed 64.5% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA and 23 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2010 with crap for receivers in Jacksonville. I never thought he deserved to get cut by Jacksonville. The only question is how he’ll bounce back from being out of the league for a year because of back surgery. However, they got him for a cheap deal, 1 million dollars guaranteed, 2.25 million base salary in 2012 and up to another 1.5 million available in incentives.

Grade: B

Guard

Stanford

6-5 316

Draft board overall prospect rank: #12

Draft board guard rank: #1

Overall rating: 88 (Solid 1^st round pick)

40 time: 5.43

Games watched: Stanford/Arizona, USC/Stanford, Stanford/Washington, Stanford/Oregon,  California/Stanford

Positives

·         Phenomenal 2^nd level blocker

·         Phenomenal 2^nd pull blocker

·         Excellent technique

·         Natural knee bender

·         Plays with a wide base

·         Powerful

·         Great at the point of attack

·         Weight room strong (34 reps of 225)

·         Good size (6-5 314)

·         Dominants guys one on one as a run blocker

·         Rarely allowed pressure on the quarterback

·         Good feet

·         Moves well

·         Great hand use

·         Excellent run blocker

·         Intelligent

·         Experienced 3 year starter – started as a freshman

·         Great motor

·         Hard working

·         Leader

·         All the intangibles

·         Versatility to play center

·         Anchored 3 top-20 running games

Negatives

·         Doesn’t play a highly valued position

·         Not athletic enough to play tackle

·         Mediocre 40 time (5.43)

·         Short arms (32 3/8 inches, though not a huge issue at guard)

·         Didn’t play many good pass rushers

NFL Comparison: Logan Mankins

The way I see this draft class, there are 6 elite talents, regardless of position. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin are the obvious ones, then Matt Kalil at left tackle, Trent Richardson at running back, Luke Kuechly at middle linebacker and… David DeCastro at guard. Guards rarely get drafted high, but DeCastro is in play for the Panthers at 9, Kansas City at 11, Arizona at 13, and Dallas at 14. Any of those spots would make him the highest drafted interior lineman since Chris Naoele in 1997 (10^th).

This is rightfully so. He’s one of the cleanest prospects in this draft class and he has next to no weaknesses. He doesn’t have elite athleticism or feet to play tackle, his 40 wasn’t great, he has short arms, and he didn’t play a lot of good pass rushers, and that’s it. And those 4 things are not important really at guard. His main weakness is really his position because of the limited value the position brings.

However, he’s easily the best guard prospect I’ve ever scouted. He’s a phenomenal 2^nd level blocker and pull blocker and would be an excellent fit for zone blocking scheme. He’s also got phenomenal strength at the point or attack and can dominate one on one. He’s got elite technique. There’s really not a whole lot wrong with him and so many things are about him are elite. He anchored 3 top-20 running games at Stanford and led the team to close to 500 yards rushing against Washington and Alameda Ta’amu, a 2^nd round defensive tackle who DeCastro dominated one on one on every occasion they matched up.

He’s often compared to Steve Hutchinson because he went high in the first and lived up to it, but I think he compares better to Logan Mankins. Mankins went later in the first round, but exceeded his draft spot as a first round guard, very rare. DeCastro is expected to go in the top 14 picks and wouldn’t get past San Diego at 18 at the worst.