Quarterback

TCU

6-2 210

Draft board overall prospect rank: #175

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #11

Overall rating: 53 (6^th round)

40 time: 4.84

3/28/11: As Mike Mayock says, Andy Dalton is someone who “grows on you.” The problem, so does mold. That doesn’t mean it’s a good thing. Ryan Fitzpatrick grew on Bills fans, but that didn’t make him a franchise quarterback. Dalton is the exact same way. He doesn’t have good arm strength. In fact, his arm is weaker than Fitzpatrick’s. However, he’s got good short accuracy and he’s smart and more importantly, he doesn’t look like a typical NFL quarterback. People want this guy to succeed.

He seems to be growing on NFL scouts as now it seems he could go in the 2^nd round to a team like the 49ers, the Redskins, or the Vikings. He struggled mightily at the Senior Bowl. In fact, I’d go as far as to say he was the worst quarterback there. He has terrible arm strength and couldn’t hit a wide open Leonard Hankerson, who burned Richard Sherman on a deep route. In fact, Sherman, who, again, got absolutely burned by Hankerson, was almost able to intercept it and probably would have if Hankerson hadn’t turned into a DB and come back and deflected the ball out of Sherman’s grasp at the last second.

There are things Dalton does well. He wins. He led TCU to an undefeated record this year, albeit in the Mountain West Conference. He’s got good short accuracy and would be best fit for a West Coast offense. He’s also mobile. He possesses all the intangibles and is very smart for his age. However, his arm strength is way too limited for him to be an NFL starting quarterback, let alone an elite quarterback. The comparisons to Kevin Kolb are off because Kolb has a much stronger arm.

NFL Comparison: Bruce Gradkowski

Quarterback

Stanford

6-4 234

Draft board overall prospect rank: #1

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #1

Overall rating: 100 (once in a decade prospect)

40 time: 4.67

Games watched: Stanford/Arizona, USC/Stanford, Stanford/Washington, Stanford/Oregon,  California/Stanford

Positives

·         Football and non-football smart

·         Calls most of his team’s plays in the huddle

·         3.5 GPA at Stanford

·         Pro Style experience

·         High character

·         Natural leader – teammate’s follow and gravitate to him

·         Humble, likable, interviews well, has all the intangibles

·         Well coached

·         Can make every throw

·         Above average arm strength

·         Elite accuracy

·         3 year starter

·         2 time Heisman runner up

·         2 years of elite statistical production (70.7%/9.0 YPA/32:8, 71.3%/8.7 YPA/37:10)

·         Winner (23-3 record in last two seasons)

·         Won and succeeded with and without Jim Harbaugh- survived coaching change

·         Highly competitive, returned for his season senior to win a National title

·         Survived the microscope and scrutiny he was put under after returning to Stanford

·         Elite record and statistical production with little offensive supporting cast

·         Frequently had to throw to covered guys, able to throw guys open

·         Puts the ball in the perfect spot with excellent consistency

·         Great pocket presence

·         Mature footwork

·         Above average mobility and athleticism

·         Can throw on the run and under pressure

·         Smart decision maker

·         Good field vision, goes through his progressions

·         Not afraid to throw it away when nothing is open

·         NFL bloodlines

·         Typical NFL build (6-4 234)

·         Has all the tools

·         Consistent

·         Can handle adversity and win ugly (USC game)

Negatives

·         Supported by an excellent offensive line

·         Never took a lot of hits

·         Rarely under a lot of pressure

·         Occasionally flustered when progression is sped up

·         He’s got everything you want, but what happens when he gets punched in the mouth?

·         Not elite arm strength

·         Pac-12 competition was not elite

·         Led a conservative offense that ran the ball a lot, took some of the pressure off him

·         7 interceptions in his last 6 games, 9 in last 9

·         Intercepted short too often – sets up pick sixes

·         Leaves ball high sometimes

·         No defining game

·         No defining win

Comparison: More athletic Eli Manning

The Andrew Luck comparison was tough because there isn’t one quarterback in the NFL he is similar to. The Peyton Manning comparisons make some sense because of how cerebral he is and because he has unconventional charisma. Personality and intelligence wise, the Peyton Manning comparisons are good, but I think those are a bit lofty. He’s also much more athletic than Manning. Because of his athleticism, he’s often compared to another former Stanford quarterback, John Elway. However, I feel those too are lofty.

I picked Eli Manning because I think it’s a more down to earth comparison. In a lot of ways, Eli is very similar to Peyton Manning. Andrew Luck’s unconventional charisma and goofy “aw shucks” leadership style is very Eli Manning like, as is his competitiveness and ability to lead comebacks. Both Eli Manning and Andrew Luck come into the league with high expectations and comparisons to Peyton Manning. Both are #1 overall picks and I think both will fall short of the Peyton Manning comparisons. However, if Andrew Luck has 2 rings before he’s 30 like Eli Manning, I doubt he’ll care. I see Andrew Luck’s career taking a similar path to Eli’s. He’ll take a lot of scrutiny because of the hype, and fall short, but still have an excellent career.

He’s not perfect. No quarterback is. You can find something wrong with every quarterback prospect, even ones who go #1. Cam Newton last year was extremely raw. Sam Bradford was coming out of a system that bloats stats and coming off a separated shoulder. Matt Stafford needed to improve decision making. JaMarcus Russell had character issues. Alex Smith had a weak level of competition. Same with David Carr. Eli Manning was never a dominant college quarterback. The list goes on and on.

Luck is better than all of those quarterbacks. I think he’s got the cleanest scouting report of any quarterback since Peyton Manning. He can get a bit frazzled under pressure in the pocket and he has been spoiled by this offensive line. He leaves balls high sometimes. He’s also been spoiled by a good running game, though he’s proven, that can get it done even when the running game isn’t going. If his defense plays a better game, he wins this one even with all of his receivers making mistakes.

However, he’s one of the smartest college quarterbacks you’ll ever see. He makes all the adjustments at the line of scrimmage. He has decision making that quarterbacks his age just don’t have. He’s had a ton of success with crap at wide receiver. His pocket presence is also rare for his age. He can get frazzled, but he does know when to flee the pocket and he throws on the run extremely well. He’s also got all the intangibles. He’s a fierce competitor and a great leader.

He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he can make all the throws and he’s extremely accurate. He handles adversity with amazing poise. He hasn’t had the strongest level of competition, but he’s played well against Oregon and USC. He’s not perfect, but as I said before, he has the cleanest scouting report of any quarterback since Peyton Manning.

Wide Receiver

Citadel

5-11 192

40 time (projected): 4.44

Draft board overall prospect rank: #13

Draft board wide receiver rank: #114

Overall rating: 66*

            Andre Roberts was one of the few small school players who burst onto the big scene in the Senior Bowl. He had a down season as a senior, getting less than 1000 receiving yards for the first time in two years, which, at a small school, against weak competition, wasn’t impressive. I thought, if he got drafted, it would be as a kick returner. However, he showed his amazing route running and knowledge of the game of football and looked like a man among boys at Senior Bowl practice, instead of the other way around. However, he lacks elite athletic ability. He doesn’t have great size and that will hurt him against more physical NFL cornerback and he doesn’t have the speed to blow past anyone. I think he’s best suited as a gritty slot guy who is capable of getting yards after the catch and not afraid to go over the middle and catch a ball. He has very soft and secure hands which will help him back the tough catches he will almost have to make in the NFL and a result of his mediocre natural athleticism. He could become a quarterback’s best friend very quickly, and he’ll also impress as a punt returner. I don’t think he’ll be anything special in the NFL, but you could do a lot worse than a smart, gritty, and disciplined wide receiver with excellent route running and good ability as a punt returner, in the 3^rd-4^th round range.

NFL Comparison: Austin Collie

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

The Patriots are expected to be using a 3-4/4-3 hybrid this year. Carter can be the 4-3 end in their 4-3 scheme, something they needed opposite Jermaine Cunningham. Carter had 11 sacks in 2009 before switching to a 3-4 last year in Washington where he really struggled. He’s 32 so he’s not getting any better, but he’s still a very nice buy low signing for the Patriots.

Grade: A

Free Safety 

Ohio State

6-1 202

40 time: 4.45

Draft board overall prospect rank: NR

Draft board safety rank: NR

Overall rating: 58*

            10/2/09: Anderson Russell is a big, tall, tough safety built in the tough mold of Big 10 players. He doesn’t have the best straight line speed and his 40 isn’t going to get him noticed but he’s a very solid player that does it all in the backfield. He plays decent in both zone and man coverage which is a plus going into the NFL with all of the different combo systems. He can guard slot guys one on one, but he’s not fast enough or good enough in backpedal to take on opposing teams’ starting receivers. He has good size, but he’s smaller than almost all tight ends so putting him on one is not a good idea. In zone, he roams well and has a knack for picking up receivers in his zone. He is strong against the run and provides good support against the run. He closes spaces against the run after the back breaks out of the backfield and really is a safety against the run. Ohio State did not give up a lot of long runs last season and has not done so this season and he’s part of that reason. He also will take on a few blocks because of his size, though he’s not great at disengaging blocks and is normally blocked easily, but he’ll take on blockers to free up other guys. He’s not afraid to stick his nose in a pile near the line and can play up close to the line on clear running plays. He doesn’t have great hands and doesn’t make a ton of plays on the ball. He doesn’t have elite quickness or acceleration. He’s not a great player, but there’s a spot for him in the league in a defensive backfield rotation.

NFL Comparison: Quentin Demps

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

This is like the Vernon Gholston signing. Okoye is a bust, but he’s only 24 and he’s a former high draft pick. Houston cut him because he wouldn’t have fit their new 3-4, but he can at least provide depth in Chicago’s 4-3 and, who knows, maybe Rod Marinelli can get something more out of him.

Grade: A

1. St. Louis Rams 1-15

Pick (will): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

The Rams cannot take Suh here. Albert Haynesworth and Richard Seymour last season were two of the top defensive tackles (though Seymour, at the time was playing 3-4 end in New England, which is essentially the same thing). Haynesworth went to Washington. Seymour went to Oakland. Neither team got better, in fact the Redskins got worse. Big dominant defensive tackles, which I believe Ndamukong Suh can be, don’t win this is league. They help, but they don’t win. Cortez Kennedy was one of the best defensive tackles of the 90’s, but never won a ring because the Seahawks never quite got their quarterback situation straightened out. If the Rams take Suh this year, there’s a good chance they win 6 games next year and get the 9^th-12^th pick, making it impossible to get a franchise quarterback. 19 of the last 20 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks had made a Pro Bowl before winning a ring and the only one who hadn’t, Eli Manning, made it the very next year. You simply can’t win in this league without a good franchise quarterback, They have a chance here to take one so they should jump at the chance. Clausen, contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, is actually a really good quarterback. For more on Clausen vs. Bradford, click here.

For more on why the Rams MUST draft quarterback, click here

2. Detroit Lions 2-14

Pick (will): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

The Lions have their franchise quarterback, but they need to protect him, otherwise his development could be stunted. Suh, or McCoy if they go that direction, is a dominant defensive player, but if the Lions’ franchise quarterback is lying on the ground and/or out with injuries, there isn’t much McCoy or Suh will be able to do to help this team win. Jeff Backus is not the guy you want protecting Stafford’s blindside while he’s developing. Russell Okung is. The Lions don’t want to risk passing on him and getting stuck with Roger Saffold and Jason Fox in the 2^nd.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

Pick (will): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

Pick (should): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

I am not going to mock trades in the should mock because I was have to negotiate with myself to get the deals done and I don’t want to develop a split personality. The Bucs have their quarterback and their left tackle so they can feel free to jump all over Suh, especially since defensive tackle is their biggest need after they were dead last in the league against the run last year. McCoy is a more natural fit for their defensive scheme, but Suh is a beast that simply can’t be passed on here. Contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, Suh is better than McCoy. That’s why he set the record for most Heisman votes as a defensive lineman.

For more on Todd McShay being an idiot, click here

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

Pick (will): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

Pick (should): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Normally, I wouldn’t take the 10^th player on my board over the 4^th players on my board just because the former had a much higher positional value. However, the Redskins need a left tackle here badly. The offensive line that Donovan McNabb will be playing behind this season gave up 43 sacks last year. Donovan McNabb isn’t magic. He won’t be able to have a good year behind that line and, given his history, he’ll probably get hurt. If the Redskins pass on a left tackle like Brown here for Berry, they won’t be able to take a left tackle until the 4^th round, when they pick next. Assuming they want to win know, Brown would be the best choice as he is the best available left tackle on my board.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Pick (will): Trade with Buffalo- QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

Pick (should): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

The Chiefs need to protect Matt Cassel’s blindside, but all left tackles remaining would be reaches. I have Bruce Campbell ranked at 17, but even with the need at left tackle it would be very hard for the Chiefs to justify passing on Berry, my 4^th ranked prospect, here, especially when they’ve been so bad on defense. Positional value is a good motto to go by up to a point and passing on an elite prospect like Berry for a 2^nd tier left tackle is where I draw that line, unless of course I needed pass protectors as badly as the Redskins do, which the Chiefs do not. Brandan Albert is a serviceable starter at left tackle for now.

6. Seattle Seahawks 5-11

Pick (will): DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Call me crazy, but I think, just because you pay him 10 million dollars and give up the equivalent of 2 3^rd rounders for him, doesn’t mean a 28 year old former 3^rdrounder who has never thrown a pass in the NFL is your quarterback of the future and solves your quarterback issue completely. If given the chance in real life, the Seahawks should take either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford, and in this mock, Bradford, my 6^th rated prospect, is available.

7. Cleveland Browns 5-11

Pick (will): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Thanks to teams going with positional value and need over best available, and rightly so, the Browns have the ability to grab my 5^th rated prospect, McCoy, here at 7. McCoy doesn’t fill an obvious need, but he’ll find a way on the field. He’s the most talented defensive lineman they have on their roster and can be an instant starter at 3-4 defensive end, even though that’s not his natural position.

8. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Pick (will): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

Pick (should): DE Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

This has to be the most poorly drafted team in the NFL. They have so many needs that I just want to fix that I just don’t know where to start. Hard to correct 10 years of bad drafting by a senile old man who spends 364 days a year dead and only drafts based on size/speed combinations. Quarterback and left tackle would be the obvious place to start, but I don’t want to reach for one, so I’ll go to the 3^rd thing on my Positional Value Chart and take Derrick Morgan, a future elite pass rushing defensive end who is also strong against the run.

9. Buffalo Bills 6-10

Pick (will): Trade with Chiefs- OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Tim Tebow (Florida)

I know what you’re thinking. Tim Tebow sucks. He’ll never be a good NFL quarterback. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^st rounder on him. I will agree with that 3^rd statement. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^strounder on him because no other teams really have him on their 1^st round radar and he’ll still be there for the Bills in the 2^nd. However, in this mock, he’s my 12^thrated player and won’t be available in the 2^nd for the Bills. I could explain in large detail why I think Tebow will work at the next level, but, in summary, it’s basically this. His two issues are his delivery and his lack of experience under center. He made huge strides on his delivery for his Pro Day at Florida. That was in the 2 months between then and The Senior Bowl. Imagine if he has a year sitting on the bench to work things out. We’ve seen guys with weird deliveries get better before (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Steve Young) and it helps Tebow that he is working with Romo’s former instructor. As for the lack of experience under center, the NFL is progressively growing into more and more of a shotgun style league. Not as much as college, but if you look at the numbers, the amount of snaps taken from shotgun are increasingly steadily every year. The Bills are considering going to a pure shotgun offense next year (making them one of 6 teams in the NFL to use a pure shotgun or a variation of the pure shotgun, New England, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, and Kansas City are the other 5). That would be a perfect fit for Tebow. Also, they do have Trent Edwards, who is not a franchise quarterback, but can be a decent one year stopgap before Tebow takes over in 2011.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

Pick (will): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Pick (should): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Tebow would have fit here as well, but for all the wrong reasons. His celebrity would help them sell tickets, but he would be counted on to start right away (bad) and the scheme doesn’t fit him at all. Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver wants Tebow and, if he’s lucky, he’ll get his way (probably in the 2^nd round though, not the 1^st), but in this mock he does not get to take Tebow, but instead takes his former teammate Joe Haden. Haden is not nearly as big of a celebrity in Jacksonville as Tebow, but Gainesville is only 75 miles away so bringing in a Gator to patch up one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year is not a bad idea. Haden also happens to be one of the best players available on my board.

11. Denver Broncos 8-8 (via CHI)

Pick (will): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

Pick (should): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

If Brandon Marshall leaves town, this pick becomes Dez Bryant, but since I am putting myself in Josh McDaniels shoes, I would go and sign Marshall to a big longterm deal before McDaniels realizes I stole his shoes. If Marshall stays, this pick has to be defense. Their defense, especially against the run, was good for the first 6 weeks of the season, but sucked the rest of the season and could get worse now that Mike Nolan has gone to Miami. And its no coincidence that the Broncos were 6-0 for the first 6 weeks of the season and 2-8 once their run defense started sucking. The way the Broncos are designed offensively, as a short throw, game manage, grind it out offense, they need to be able to stop the other team and win the field position battle. I would just take the best available 3-4 front 7 player. That is McClain who fills the void at middle linebacker left when they cut Andra Davis.

12. Miami Dolphins 7-9

Pick (will): RLB Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

Pick (should): RLB Brandon Graham (Michigan)

This pick and the situation of the Miami puts two of my strong drafting beliefs in contrast to one another. I believe that by far, quarterback, left tackle, and defense end/rush linebacker are the three most important positions, but I also believe that rush linebackers are incredibly risky to take in the first round. For more information on that click here. That being said, I do have some confidence in Graham because, though he has never played rush linebacker, he has played linebacker before he was converted to an end, and I also love his motor and work ethic and, as far as I’m concerned, that has value anywhere on the field.

13. San Francisco 49ers 8-8

Pick (will): S Taylor Mays (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

I don’t love Campbell as a prospect. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued him in the past, but at his best, he is one of the best left tackles in this draft class. His upside is enormous if he can achieve it. He would allow the Niners to move Joe Staley to his natural position at right tackle and give the Niners two upgrades in one.

14. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via DEN)

Pick (will): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

The Seahawks make a reach here for a left tackle, but I think it’s a necessary reach. Behind a good offensive line, Matt Hasselbeck can actually make this team competitive in the sure to be weak NFC West in 2010. Plus, Bulaga would be able to be their blindside protector for the next 8-10 years or so which is great for young Sam Bradford when he steps in at the beginning of the 2011 season.

15. New York Giants 8-8

Pick (will): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

Pick (should): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

A great pick in both mocks. Weatherspoon can play middle in a 4-3 as well as 4-3 outside linebacker and 3-4 middle linebacker. He’s the best available prospect at this juncture and fills a need for the Giants after they released Antonio Pierce.

16. Tennessee Titans 8-8

Pick (will): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Pick (should): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Dan Williams is a perfect fit here and likely would go here in reality if he is available. As weird as it may seem, he’s a do everything nose tackle. He’s 325 pounds, but has experience playing in a system similar to the one the Titans run now and he’s also an in-state college kid. He is mobile enough to play in Tennessee’s system and, though he’s not the pass rusher Haynesworth was, he can be the big mobile body that Haynesworth was in the middle of their defense a couple of years ago and free things up for the guys on the outside. He’d be a great compliment to their roster full of sub 300 pound defensive tackles.

 17. San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (via CAR)

Pick (will): OT Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

Pick (should): S Earl Thomas (Texas)

The Niners would like to address the cornerback position, their biggest need, in the first, but they shouldn’t reach for a corner like Kyle Wilson as long as they have other needs to address, especially when you consider the strength of this cornerback class in the 2^nd and 3^rd round range. Earl Thomas allows Dashon Goldston to move to strong safety when he would be a better fit and gives them two upgrades in one.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

Pick (will):  S Earl Thomas (Texas)

Pick (should): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Nose tackle isn’t their biggest need with Casey Hampton under contract for 3 more years, but Hampton is getting old and that contract pays him 21 million dollars over 3 years so I’m guessing they would love to be able to cut him midway and safe money. Cody allows them to do that by giving them a nose tackle, something that is extremely rare.

19. Pick (will): DE Brandon Graham (Michigan)

Pick (should): WR Damian Williams (USC)

Williams is my 9^th rated player, but falls out of lack of need for wide receivers. Wideout is not a huge need for the Falcons, but Michael Jenkins could be upgraded. Matt Ryan, throwing to Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Williams, who I compare to Greg Jennings, is pretty good.

20. Houston Texans 9-7

Pick (will): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

Pick (will): RB Jahvid Best (California)

Given how bad the Texans were running the ball last year, taking a talented running back like Best who fits their scheme is a smart idea. Best might not be an every down back, but they have plenty of other running backs to spell him in the backfield, just no true #1 running backs unless Steve Slaton can bounce back.

21. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pick (will): DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)

Pick (should): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

I wouldn’t give up on Chase Coffman, a 2009 3^rd round pick who didn’t play a snap last year because of injuries, just yet. Unless of course Jermaine Gresham, my top tight end, fell to me at 21. Gresham had an injury problem last year, but he appears to have put it behind him. He’s one of the best pure pass catching tight end prospects since Kellen Winslow and he’d finally give the Bengals that over the middle target they are lacking.

22. New England Patriots 10-6

Pick (will): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) 

Randy Moss is getting up there in years and only has one year left on his deal. He didn’t give a lot of effort last year either and the Pats have won without him. I don’t think he’ll be in town for anymore than a year so they’ll want to look for a future replacement. Bryant would fit the Patriots offensive scheme well because he played in one just like it in college. I think if Bryant falls to the Pats in real life, they’ll also pull the trigger.

23. Green Bay Packers 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jason Pierre Paul (South Florida)

Pick (should): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

A left tackle is majorly needed, but I wouldn’t reach for a guy like Jason Fox or Trent Williams here. They can just go with best available which they probably will do in real life anyway because of how much they like going with best available. Spiller can help this team in the return game, which they struggle in, and give them a 3^rd round down back, and a homerun hitter out of the backfield, all of which are things they do not have at the moment. He’s the best available player who they could use.

24. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

Pick (will): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

Pick (should): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

This is a great pick is both reality and in my own little world. Wilson would fill the need left by Sheldon Brown, who was traded to the Browns, and he can move over to the #1 cornerback spot when they decide Asante Samuel is too old and costs too much, which will probably be next season.

25. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Pick (will): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

The Ravens have very few needs after all of their upgrades at receiver, including their trade for Anquan Boldin and resigning Derrick Mason. They will probably just look past available and Odrick certainly is that. Trevor Pryce turns 35 soon and the Ravens would be wise to take this opportunity to do what the Steelers did last year and had some youth to their again defensive line.

26. Arizona Cardinals 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

Pick (should): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

The Cardinals have the personnel to switch to a 3-4 full time next season, but if they do, they’ll need to get more pressure from their rush linebackers. They added Joey Porter, but I don’t see how much the 33 year old Porter helps their group of old rush linebackers for the future. Hughes can be the #1 rush linebacker of the future opposite Cody Brown, a 2009 2^nd round pick, assuming he pans out.

27. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

Pick (will): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Pick (should): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Youth and depth for the offensive line, that is the Cowboys’ biggest need this offseason. They were destroyed in their playoff loss to the Vikings up front because their old line had worn down and injuries struck and their backups, who aren’t very good, had to step in. Iupati is very raw, but has huge upside. He won’t be a week one starter, but could step in and be an upgrade for Kyle Kosier sometime next year.

28. San Diego Chargers 13-3

Pick (will): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Brian Price (UCLA)

They never replaced Igor Olshansky after he left as a free agent last year. I have some qualms about Price’s ability to play 3-4 defensive end, but the switch from 4-3 under tackle to 3-4 defensive end is nowhere near as big as the switch from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 rush linebacker. I also have no qualms about Price’s talent and, though I would have rather than Odrick, I am happy with Price.

29. New York Jets 9-7

Pick (will): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

Pick (should): RLB Everson Griffen (USC)

Vernon Gholston is on a short leash and the only reason he is still on the team is because the Jets would look really stupid to have to release the #6 overall pick 2 years after drafting him. Gholston could bounce back, but he has 0 sacks in 2 years, so I’m not counting on it. Just in case he doesn’t, they should add Griffen, a more natural fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker than Gholston was and the best player available. The Jets aren’t going to be an elite team unless they can create more pressure on the quarterback.

30. Minnesota Vikings 12-4

Pick (will): DT Brian Price (UCLA)

Pick (should): CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Antoine Winfield is getting up there in age and has had recent injury issues, Cedric Griffen is average at best and recently tore his ACL, and Asher Allen is a nickel at best and a kick returner. The Vikings, given the NFL is becoming more and more a pass first league every year, should add one more starting caliber corner to the mix. Ghee is that.

31. Indianapolis Colts 14-2

Pick (will): G Maurkice Pouncey (Florida)

Pick (should): OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Charlie Johnson did a decent job this year at left tackle, but I think even I could do a decent job at left tackle for the Colts because Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly, like clockwork, that it’s almost impossible to sack him. The Colts need to bring in an upgrade at left tackle and Williams has the upside to be amazing in Indianapolis with Manning making him look a little better than he is. Johnson is also a free agent in 2011.

32. New Orleans Saints 13-3

Pick (will): DE Everson Griffen (USC)

Pick (should): OLB Eric Norwood (South Carolina)

The Saints can use Norwood in the way the Redskins used Brian Orakpo, a strong side linebacker on running downs, because he’s too small to play the trenches on running downs, and a defensive end on passing downs, because he’s not good enough in coverage. This way, they could make the most out of his size (he’s big for a linebacker, but small for an end) and his pass rushing ability, without having to use him in places where he does not fit. 

Wide receiver

South Carolina

6-3 216

Draft board overall prospect rank: #55

Draft board overall wide receiver rank: #8

Overall rating: 77 (2nd round)

40 time: 4.48

Games watched: South Carolina/Arkansas, South Carolina/Vanderbilt, South Carolina/Clemson

Positives

·         Excellent size (6-3 216)

·         Great hands

·         Incredibly productive 2010 season (88 catches for 1517 yards and 9 touchdowns)

·         3 year starter

·         Physical with defensive backs

·         Strong

·         Can catch the ball with a guy draped on him

·         Good blocker

·         Big, outside target

·         Good body control

·         Wide catch radius

·         Played through injuries

·         Solid 40 time (4.48)

·         Tough to tackle in the open field

·         Flashes elite talent

·         Good work ethic to lose weight after season

·         Played with terrible quarterbacks

·         Consistently double teamed

Negatives

·         Weight concerns (played in the 230s)

·         Durability concerns

·         Lost 20 pounds in the offseason to perform well in the 40, which is a sign of good work ethic, but 215 is not his playing weight

·         Will he be able to stay at 215?

·         Major regression in 2011 (49 catches for 762 yards and 8 touchdowns)

·         Only 1 100 yard game in 2011

·         Lacks top end speed

·         Slow out of his breaks

·         Route running could use work

NFL Comparison: Mike Williams (Seattle)

Alshon Jeffery is an interesting prospect. Coming into the season, he was seen as a potential top 10 pick after an incredibly impressive sophomore season in which he caught 88 passes for 1517 yards and 9 touchdowns. However, his junior year was a real disappointment in comparison and after 49 catches for 762 yards and 8 touchdowns, he’s probably a 2^nd round pick, though he could sneak into the late 1^st.

He did play through various injuries in 2011, when he only had one game of over 100 yards. He also battled terrible quarterback play. He was still his team’s leading receiver by 20 catches and almost 400 yards and he was consistently double teamed, opening things up for the rest of his team. However, the major problem was his lack of top end speed. Defensive backs were able to use this against him and sit on all of the short routes he was running.

He played in the 230s at South Carolina and looked out of shape, especially in 2011. He lost 20 pounds or so to improve his 40 time and he ran a solid 4.48 at his Pro Day (he mysteriously didn’t run at the Combine). However, NFL decision makers are still not convinced. Anyone can lose 20 pounds for a short period of time and it displays his good work ethic that he was able to do so, but his natural playing weight is in the 230s. NFL decision makers aren’t convinced that he can still in the 210s.

Jeffery looks like a 2^nd round pick and a #2 receiver. He won’t be a #1 guy, but he should be a great, outside possession receiver. He’s a great short route runner, with excellent hands and body control. He doesn’t get a lot of separation, but he’s good at making catches even when blanketed by defenders. He’s also incredibly tough to tackle in the open field and breaks tackles like a running back. However, speed, weight, and durability concerns will probably keep him out of the 2^nd round.

A comparison for him was tough. Mike Williams is a popular one because the former USC receiver (who went 10^th overall) played weight problems throughout his career. However, Jeffery has a good work ethic so I don’t see him ever ballooning up to the 250 pounds Williams was at when he eat himself out of the league. However, there are similarities, even down to the type of college receiver they each were. 

Alex Smith gets the same deal essentially as Matt Flynn (3 years 26 million with 10 million guaranteed for Flynn and 3 years 24 million with 10 million guaranteed for Smith). Flynn has made 2 career starts. Alex Smith was 2 special teams gaffes away from the Super Bowl. When you look at some of the deals that quarterbacks have gotten in recent years (Kevin Kolb: 6 years 65 million with 12 million guaranteed, Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7 years 62 million with 24 million guaranteed, Matt Cassel: 6 years 63 million with 28 million guaranteed), Smith was an absolute bargain.

Smith’s haters may say that he didn’t have a lot to do with where his team ended up last season, but given where they are, they couldn’t go forward without Smith in 2012. Smith threw 5 interceptions last season. He might not have necessarily made them go, but he didn’t hold them back either. He also showed the ability to take over the game at times, the New Orleans game comes to mind. I’m very excited to see what he can do with new receivers and a full offseason with Jim Harbaugh. There are no guarantees that Colin Kaepernick or Josh Johnson would have been anywhere near as efficient as Smith was last season.

In San Francisco’s system, Smith is a legitimate top 15 quarterback that you can win a Super Bowl with as long as everything is right around him (and in San Francisco it almost is). The 49ers are so close. Sometime in the 3 years of this contract, they could win a Super Bowl. 24 million will seem like an absolute bargain in that case and even if they don’t quite get it, it still will. If he struggles, they don’t owe him a lot of guaranteed money and they have Colin Kaepernick waiting in the wings. Remember, Kaepernick was not drafted in the 1^st round. He wasn’t drafted to be the starter. He was drafted as an insurance policy for Smith and they haven’t needed him yet. One last note: Smith made 5 million season when he was a former bust stopgap. This offseason he’s only getting 3 million more after a borderline Pro Bowl season. Bargain.

Update: This deal is bigger than originally reported, 3 years 33 million with 16.5 million guaranteed, though it’s worth noting that a good amount of that 33 million is incentive based (8 million per year base salary). I’m still giving this an A. They did overpay a little in terms of guaranteed money, but 8 million per year isn’t unreasonable for a top 15 quarterback like Smith. As well as the 49ers did last season, they had to keep their quarterback, even if it meant overpaying him. There’s no guarantee Kaepernick or Johnson could do what Smith did.

Update II: Turns out it was only 9 million guaranteed. Even better. If he regresses, they can cut him loose after a season.  Deal still worth a max of 33 million with a 24 million base.

Grade: A