Month: May 2012

Mickey Loomis promises Saints will get a deal done with Drew Brees

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The league’s most prominent contract negotiations right now are between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Brees saved the Saints franchise from mediocrity and a possible move from New Orleans, yet the organization is still playing hardball with the single season passing yards record holder. Yesterday, Brees spoke out and called the negotiations, as you could expect, “extremely frustrating.”

Today Saints GM Mickey Loomis spoke out and promised a deal would get done. The Saints would be wise to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Having your quarterback miss any practice is never a good thing and these drawn out negotiations do not paint the front office in a positive light to the rest of the players on the team. The Saints also could really use some good press and karma finally, after an offseason filled with BountyGate news.

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Cardinals’ Beanie Wells “doesn’t know” when he’ll be healthy

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Former first round pick Beanie Wells has had an injury prone career, but finally got it all together last year to lead the team with 1047 yards and 10 touchdowns on 245 carries. However, after the season, he had yet another knee surgery, a minor one, but Wells is still not practicing and says he “doesn’t know” when he’ll be ready to practice. Wells was already facing a decrease in carries as 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams returns from injury to steal some carries away and now he has this. It’s clear he probably won’t match the numbers he had in 2011.

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Panthers’ Jeff Otah is not guaranteed a starting job

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There was a time when Jeff Otah was one of the best right tackles in the game, young, and a former first round pick. However, thanks to knee injuries, Otah has missed all but 4 games over the last 2 seasons. He declared himself 100% earlier this offseason, which should be taken with a grain of salt, especially after he did the same thing last offseason, but Panthers Head Coach Ron Rivera says he is going to be guaranteed nothing in terms of a starting job and that he will have to earn his job back from Byron Bell.

Though Rivera praised Bell in the same interview, Bell was one of the worst right tackles in the league last year, surrendering 7 sacks, 24 pressures, committing 12 penalties and grading out as well below average against the run, all this according to ProFootballFocus. Otah shouldn’t have much trouble beating him out for the starting job should he be, in fact, relatively healthy.

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Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chiefs

QB Matt Cassel (Kansas City)

The Chiefs are going back to a very run heavy attack with two talented backs in 2012 and could lead the league in rushing. In 2010, when they did this, Cassel had 27 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, but managed just 3116 yards (6.9 YPA) on 450 attempts. His TD/INT ratio should improve from the 10:9 it was last year, but he also had a 16:16 ratio in 2009 so I’m not expecting 27:7 again. I’m also expecting his YPA to be around where it was last year (6.4) with only 450 or so attempts. Not a lot to get excited about here. Even if in 2010, he wasn’t anything more than a fantasy backup and that was at his best.

Projection: 2940 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 130 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (190 pts standard/232 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

7/26/12: I’m moving Hillis down with the news that the Chiefs will try to have their backs touch the ball combined 500 times, but I’m actually moving Charles up because he’s been cleared for the start of Training Camp and should get the majority of the touches. There will be a 60-40 split or so and Charles, who has averaged 6.1 YPC in his career, could get a career high in touches. There’s major upside with him in the 2nd round, provided he stays healthy and plays close to 100% of his 2010 self.

There’s buy low potential here with Jamaal Charles.  The Chiefs are going to try to replicate their 2010 offense so there will be plenty of carries to go around for both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they should split them evenly like Charles and Thomas Jones did in 2010. Charles has a career 6.1 YPC and figures to be able to make the most of those carries. Peyton Hills will get the goal line carries, but Charles should still have a solid year.

Projection: 250 carries 1250 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 40 catches 320 receiving yards (205 pts standard/245 pts PPR)

RB Peyton Hillis (Kansas City)

7/26/12: The Chiefs reportedly want running backs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles to touch the ball a combined 500 times next season, less than I originally projected (going off the 539 times that Charles and Jones touched the ball combined in 2010). However, they’ll still run a ton so Hillis is a decent RB3, who pass catches and will get the goal line carries. He’s also got a lot of upside since Charles is coming off a torn ACL.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 475 carries in 2010. Hillis and Charles could approach that this season running behind a much improved offensive line. Remember, Hillis is less than 2 years removed from rushing for 1177 yards and 11 touchdowns on 270 carries on a stagnant Cleveland offense in 2010. He may not be as talented as Charles, but he catches passes and will get all the goal line carries. An inferior Jones scored 6 times in 2010. Hillis could get in double figures in 2012.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (147 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

8/7/12: I don’t know why Dwayne Bowe is holding out. He can’t be signed to a long term deal anyway. All he’s doing is hurting himself because other guys are impressing in his absence and other guys will have a better grasp of the offense with a new coaching staff in. Jonathan Baldwin has been a stud in his absence and will almost definitely eat into his production this season. All he’s doing is costing himself money on his next contract. He could also end up getting out of shape. He probably won’t miss any regular games, but let him be someone else’s problem this season.

Over the past 2 years, Dwayne Bowe has had 72 catches for 1162 yards and 81 catches for 1159 yards on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. However, I expect those numbers to dip a bit in 2012. The Chiefs have more options with Jonathan Baldwin going into his 2nd year and Tony Moeaki coming back from injury and they figure to run a ton, maybe even more than in 2010. He is, however, the only Kansas City receiver with any fantasy value on a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback. He should have more than the 5 touchdowns he had last year, but less than the obviously fluky 15 he had in 2010. Aside from 2010, his career high is 7 and after that it’s 5.

Projection: 65 catches 950 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

WR Jonathan Baldwin (Kansas City)

8/7/12: Baldwin didn’t do much as a rookie last year, but he as a 1st round pick and a bad rookie year is already damning for a receiver. Baldwin has been impressing in Bowe’s absence and should be able to nail down a starting job, moving Steve Breaston to the slot. Breaston had 61 catches for 785 yards and 2 touchdowns last year with inferior quarterback play. Baldwin is more talented and definitely has upside as a late round flier. Unfortunately, he’s limited by his quarterback and Bowe’s presence.

Projection: 50 catches 700 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (100 pts standard/150 pts PPR)

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Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Broncos

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

I’m projecting a down season for Peyton Manning for several reasons. For one, he’s going to a new team, in a new division, with a new system, and new players, new coaches, new surroundings, everything new. The continuity is gone for Peyton Manning, which is never a good thing. Two, he’s got inferior players around him, at least in comparison to the 2000s Colts or even the 2010 Colts, which had two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, who almost had 1000 yard seasons last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky.

Three, he was out of football all last year. In 2010, he struggled by his standards for half a season after just missing training camp. Four, he’s coming off of 4 neck surgeries in 2 years. Enough said. Five, he’s 36 and a declining player. He was a declining player even in 2010 and that was 3 neck surgeries and almost 2 years ago. His arm strength wasn’t what it used to be and I can’t imagine it’s any better now. I expect him to have a season worse than 2010, when he had 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 touchdowns, particularly because he won’t throw the ball 679 times, which he did in 2010.

Projection: 4370 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (264 pts standard/322 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Willis McGahee (Denver)

8/20/12: McGahee’s top backup, Ronnie Hillman, has been dealing with hamstring problems all Preseason. Those things can linger, so it becomes less likely that Hillman overtakes McGahee, especially since Head Coach John Fox doesn’t like rookies. McGahee is still heading into his age 31 season, but he’s reportedly the clear lead back and he should get a bunch of carries and a bunch of goal line carries on an explosive offense.

There’s nothing but downside with McGahee this year after a surprise bounce back year last year. Remember, he’s a season removed from averaging 3.8 YPC as Ray Rice’s backup in Baltimore behind a better offensive line. Now he’s 31 in October. He’s getting drafted too early and Hillman is getting drafted too late as he has real sleeper value.

Projection: 200 carries 820 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 20 catches 130 receiving yards (149 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

8/20/12: Hillman is dealing with hamstring problems and on top of that, news has come out that McGahee is the clear lead back, which makes some sense since John Fox hates rookies. Hillman does have some upside, because he’s the type of pass catching back that Peyton Manning will want on the field with him and because McGahee is heading into his age 31 season, but he’s only a late round flier. He might even start the season below Knowshon Moreno on the depth chart.

Willis McGahee had a bounce back year last year with 1199 yards and 4 touchdowns on 249 carries, but a lot of that had to do with Tebow and opposing front 7s having to focus on him and his running ability. Now he’s a year older, 31 in October, and the Broncos used a 3rd round pick on a running back. McGahee could struggle this season and end up in a 50/50 timeshare with Ronnie Hillman. I actually like Hillman to lead this team in carries. McGahee will get the goal line carries, but Hillman is a better pass catcher.

Projection: 100 carries 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (84 pts standard/104 pts PPR)

WR Eric Decker (Denver)

8/7/12: Eric Decker and Peyton Manning reportedly have great chemistry in Denver, much better than him and Demaryius Thomas. This makes a lot of sense because Peyton Manning loves crisp route runners with reliable hands, rather than pure athletic freaks like Thomas. With Peyton Manning likely to show diminished arm strength this season at age 36 after 4 neck surgeries and a year out of football, Decker should lead the team in receiving and Peter King’s prediction that Decker will rank among the league leaders in receiving doesn’t sound too crazy.

Everyone assumes Demaryius Thomas will lead the Broncos in receiving, but why? Just because he had 25 catches for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 5 games last year? Well Eric Decker had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 4 games last year and that was with Brandon Lloyd opposite him.

Just because Thomas had great chemistry with Tim Tebow doesn’t mean he will have great chemistry with Peyton Manning. Thomas is still a very unproven player and Decker has shown better chemistry with more traditional pocket passers. It’s also worth noting that Peyton Manning specifically requested the Colts draft Eric Decker in the 3rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got him first. We know he thinks highly of him.

Manning has made lemonade out of apples before with his receivers. If Austin Collie can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games on a more crowded receiving corps in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have a 1000 yard season. I think he’ll lead this team in receiving and exceed his draft range.

Projection: 90 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/254 pts PPR)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

8/27/12: Like with the Caldwell entry, I don’t know why Thomas’ numbers were so low. I’m down on him, as compared to Eric Decker, but not too down.

I went into detail about Thomas under Eric Decker’s write up, but Thomas has never had any success in the NFL without Tim Tebow. He also has very little proven success in general with just 54 catches for 834 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons. He’s got a ton of talent and athleticism, but I think Decker stands a better chance to develop great chemistry with Manning as he’s a traditional drop back passer. It doesn’t hurt that Peyton Manning told the Colts to draft Eric Decker back in 2010. Thomas won’t have a bad year, but could be overdrafted.

Projection: 46 catches 820 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (124 pts standard/170 pts PPR)

TE Jacob Tamme (Denver)

8/27/12: Peyton Manning has been targeting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen equally in the preseason. The Broncos will use a lot of 2-tight end sets this year and their two talented tight ends might just cancel each other out. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning, good for 107 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, but all that proves is Manning loves throwing to his tight ends. He always has (see Clark, Dallas). However, he’ll split his tight end targets between Tamme and Dreessen this year. Tamme will probably see more targets, but Dreessen will be the preferred goal line target and probably have more touchdowns.

I love Jacob Tamme this year. He caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning and he’s the only receiver with any previous experience with Manning. He also will play in a pretty mediocre receiving corps so Manning could target him early and often, especially with his previous familiarity with him.

Projection: 64 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard/158 pts PPR)

TE Joel Dreessen (Denver)

8/27/12: Peyton Manning has been targeting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen equally in the preseason. The Broncos will use a lot of 2-tight end sets this year and their two talented tight ends might just cancel each other out. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning, good for 107 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, but all that proves is Manning loves throwing to his tight ends. He always has (see Clark, Dallas). However, he’ll split his tight end targets between Tamme and Dreessen this year. Tamme will probably see more targets, but Dreessen will be the preferred goal line target and probably have more touchdowns.

Projection: 49 catches 590 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (89 pts standard/138 pts PPR)

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Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jaguars

QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville)

If Blaine Gabbert is on your fantasy team, you’re an idiot.

Projection: 2780 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, no rushing touchdowns (161 pts standard, 195 pts in 6 pt TD league)

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: MJD finally reported. Rashad Jennings will get the week 1 start regardless and could get the bulk of the carries for the first 2 weeks or so of the season as MJD gets back into football shape and learns the offense. There are also way too many similarities to the Chris Johnson holdout last year for me to be comfortable projecting MJD’s usual level of production until the 2nd half of the season (Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC through the first 8 games last year and 4.8 through the final 8). MJD is also a candidate to get hurt lose carries some more carries than he originally would have is Jennings impresses in his tryout as starter. I’m moving him up, but he’s hardly a sure thing fantasy running back.

8/27/12: Maurice Jones-Drew has yet to report and says he’d “welcome a trade,” though he also said he’d prefer to stay in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have announced that Rashad Jennings will start week 1 regardless as MJD will take some time to get back into top football shape and because he missed an entire offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in.

This is a smart move by the Jaguars because this situation is eerily similar to Chris Johnson’s situation last year and Johnson averaged 3.0 yards per carry for the first half of the season before looking like his old self and averaging 4.8 per in the 2nd half of the season. Don’t expect MJD’s production to resemble his normal levels of production until around midseason and he’s also an obvious injury risk if he’s out of shape. Remember, he’s had a lot of usage over the past 3 years (1084 touches). Those types of guys are injury risks to begin with.

7/1/12: Maurice Jones Drew might be the most serious holdout this year. The Jaguars are refusing to even talk contract right now with him and he should miss at least the start of Training Camp unless something drastically changes. This reminds me a lot of Chris Johnson’s holdout last year and Johnson was out of shape as a result of it. MJD is also coming off leading the league in carries, which means he could be more worn down this season, and he’s on a terrible offense that isn’t in the red zone much and frequently faces 8 man fronts. He’s incredibly talented, but I’d let someone else take him in the 1st round.

Maurice Jones Drew led the league in carries last year. History suggests that this means he’ll have a down year this year. At the same time, he’s so talented, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had yet another fantastic season. He probably won’t have the 343 carries he had last year, especially with his top backup Rashad Jennings coming back from injury. His YPC and touchdown potential are also stagnated by the offense he plays on. Nonetheless, he should be one of the top fantasy backs this year.

Projection: 250 carries 1080 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 300 receiving yards (186 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

RB Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: Jennings obviously moves down with MJD coming back. He’ll probably have RB2/flex value for the first couple weeks of the season, but he’ll need an MJD injury to remain startable at any point the rest of the season. He still has the most value as a handcuff for MJD owners.

8/27/12: Jennings obviously gets a stock up with Maurice Jones Drew going down. He’ll get the week 1 start either way and could see a lot of action early in the season. Still, I wouldn’t draft him at his current ADP in the 8th round unless I had Maurice Jones-Drew on my roster (and likewise, I wouldn’t draft MJD without targeting Jennings in the mid rounds). There are too many unknowns here to just own one. Jennings could get two starts and then be a pure backup for the rest of the season. It’s definitely possible.

7/1/12: Jennings is a valuable handcuff to MJD owners the way Javon Ringer was for Chris Johnson owners last season.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 21 catches 170 receiving yards (110 pts standard/131 pts PPR)

WR Laurent Robinson (Jacksonville)

8/7/12: This is not what you want to hear. Laurent Robinson, a one year wonder who could regress after signing a giant contract with a team with that has a terrible quarterback, is reportedly really struggling in Training Camp and he and his team even admits it. I guess that’s what happens when you give 32.5 million over 5 years to a receiver who was a final cut last offseason. Stay away.

Before last season, Laurent Robinson never had more than 37 catches for 437 yards in a season and might revert now that he has gotten a big deal. Even if he doesn’t, we might not notice because Gabbert sucks too much for any of his receivers to be fantasy starters until further notice. Stay away.

Projection: 40 catches 530 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (77 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)

8/7/12: Justin Blackmon was bound to struggle anyway this season because his quarterback sucks and because rookie receivers never do anything. On top of that, he missed a large portion of Training Camp with a contract dispute. Stay away.

Justin Blackmon is an incredibly talented player, but rookie receivers typically struggle (don’t see Green, AJ and Jones, Julio) and Blackmon’s quarterback situation is a mess. Stay away in redraft leagues.

Projection:  44 catches 550 yards 4 receiving touchdowns (79 pts standard/123 pts PPR)

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New York Jets sign S Yeremiah Bell

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

Yeremiah Bell isn’t very good, especially at 34 years of age, but Eric Smith isn’t very good either. The Jets desperately needed safety help with Eric Smith’s struggles and LaRon Landry’s history of injuries, as well as their confusing failure to use an early pick on a safety in the 2012 NFL Draft. Yeremiah Bell might not be good, but he probably was the best safety left on the open market and the Jets needed to do something at the position.

This doesn’t really fix anything, but at 1.4 million over 1 year, it’s not a bad signing or anything, even though it is fully guaranteed (huh?). Expect the Jets to once again have very poor safety play unless one of their two late round rookies, Antonio Allen or Josh Bush, can develop into a capable player as a rookie. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez should once again be looking forward to facing the Jets twice this season.

Grade: B

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Steelers

QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

In 13 games before his injury, Big Ben had 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 3526 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 26 touchdowns, 14 touchdowns, and 4340 yards. However, I’m not expecting that from him. He’s only played all 16 games once in his career and he’s never 100% for all the ones he does play.

Projection: 3940 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 120 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (245 pts standard/289 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

8/31/12: For more on the Steelers’ backfield situation, click here.

8/27/12: Not only is Rashard Mendenhall activated off the PUP, but Redman is also hurt. He won’t miss any games, but he said his groin and hip problems could bother him all year, never a good thing for someone trying to establish himself. On top of that, Jonathan Dwyer has looked good in the preseason and will cut into his carries even when Redman is the starter, which he should still be for 3-4 weeks.

8/20/12: Rashard Mendenhall has been activated off the PUP, a very surprising move since even GM Kevin Tolbert said he’d likely begin the season on the PUP and miss at least 6 games. He won’t be ready for the opener, but he’ll likely only miss around 3 games, rather than 6+. Redman will be the lead back for 3 games and get about 15 carries per game and then get about 10, an even split with Mendenhall, for the other 13. He is the more talented back in Pittsburgh’s backfield and Mendenhall in a contract year and unlikely to remain with the team after the season, but Redman’s window of opportunity to show himself as a true lead back has at least been cut in half.

The Steelers’ coaching staff is not counting on Rashard Mendenhall in 2012. Anything they can get from him will be a bonus, but Redman should have at least 8 games to be the starter, possibly more if he runs well. Redman, who the coaching staff has been talking up this offseason, won’t have a lot of competition from other backs until Mendenhall returns and will be running behind an upgraded offensive line with the additions of David DeCastro and Mike Adams, as well as the return of Willie Colon from injury.

Projection: 130 carries 550 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 17 catches 110 receiving yards (96 pts standard/113 pts PPR)

RB Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh)

8/31/12: For more on the Steelers’ backfield situation, click here.

8/27/12: Mendenhall is less likely to split carries with Redman once he returns now that Redman is nursing a lingering injury.

8/20/12: Mendenhall is officially on the fantasy radar after being activated off the PUP. He’ll still miss the first few games of the season and probably split carries for the rest of the season, but he’s worth a late round flier, especially as a handcuff to the still unproven Isaac Redman.

Isaac Redman and Mendenhall combined for 338 carries last season. To get Mendenhall’s projected carries, I assumed he’d miss 8 games and then split carries with Redman evenly for 8 games, so I essentially divided 338 by 4. He won’t be much of a fantasy factor this season if his injury situation remains the way it currently sounds.

Projection: 140 carries 600 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches 120 receiving yards (102 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

RB Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh)

8/31/12: For more on the Steelers’ backfield situation, click here.

8/27/12: Mendenhall is coming off a torn ACL and will miss at least 3 games. Redman has lingering groin and hip problems. All of a sudden, Dwyer, who has looked good this preseason, makes for an interesting late sleeper in deeper leagues. In normal leagues, definitely monitor him.

Projection: 130 carries 610 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 10 catches 80 receiving yards (99 pts standard/109 pts PPR)

WR Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)

8/27/12: Mike Wallace is expected to report sometime this week, possibly even tomorrow. He’s still a strong candidate for a down year after an extended holdout because he could be out of top football shape and because he missed a whole offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in. The Steelers have another receiver, Antonio Brown, who is just as talented, if not more so, who has been there all offseason. He’ll be the Steelers’ primary target at least for the first half of the season, benefiting from Wallace drawing the attention away from him. He could be their primary target all season. Plus, remember, Brown had 677 yards to Wallace’s 393.

7/27/12: Mike Wallace will either play out the season under his one year tender or be traded. Regardless of whether or not he gets traded, Wallace’s fantasy value could take a major hit this season. If he reports, it’ll likely be after a long holdout, which could led to him getting out of shape and will cost him valuable time learning the playbook, while other receivers like Brown and Sanders are gaining greater mastery of Todd Haley’s new system. He could also hold out into the season.

If he gets traded, he’ll be traded to a team likely with an inferior quarterback and receivers have a poor track record when switching teams, especially this close to the season. It takes time to learn a playbook and get adjusted to a quarterback. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues, especially at his current ADP in the early 4th round.

7/26/12: Mike Wallace’s holdout could get ugly. Right now, the Steelers won’t agree to negotiate with him until he reports to camp, but he won’t report to camp until they pay him. I don’t expect him to miss any games, at least not at the moment, but an extended holdout could hurt him on the field this season. He risks getting out of shape and more importantly he also misses valuable practice with in new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system. Let him be someone else’s problem unless he falls to the point where he’s too good to pass on.

Wallace has had 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns and 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last 2 years. He’ll be better if Big Ben can stay healthy for 16 games, but that never happens. Still, he’s a top-10 fantasy receiver once again.

Projection: 62 catches 1010 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (137 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

8/28/12: Brown also gets a stock up with Wallace coming back. The Steelers will probably use Wallace primarily as a deep decoy for the first 4-8 games of the season until he gets the playbook mastered, which sets up a perfect situation for Brown, who has been there all offseason and was the team’s leading receiver, by far, in the 2nd half of the season. Wallace had about 1200 yards last year and Brown had about 1100. Expect Brown to be closer to 1300 and Wallace to be closer to 1000 this year.

7/27/12: If Wallace is traded or holds out into the season, Brown immediately becomes the #1 receiver. Even Wallace isn’t traded, Brown could still be the #1 receiver because he’ll have better mastery of Todd Haley’s new offense and because he won’t run the risk of getting out of shape. He’s heading into his 3rd year, normally a big breakout year for receivers. He should have career highs across the board.

7/26/12: With Mike Wallace trending down, Antonio Brown is trending up. Brown will be the #1 receiver in Wallace’s absence at Training Camp and that could lead to him become a more relied on receiver by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, especially since he figures to have better mastery of their new offensive system.

Antonio Brown had his breakout year last year, giving Pittsburgh two 1000 yard receivers. They could very well have two 1000 yard receivers again this year. Brown will be more valuable in fantasy leagues this year than last because I think his mere 2 touchdowns from last year were a fluke. The combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders vultured 9 touchdowns last year. That won’t happen this year.

Projection: 78 catches 1270 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (175 pts standard/253 pts PPR)

TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh)

8/7/12: Heath Miller is going to be a bigger part of Todd Haley’s offense, especially if Mike Wallace misses time. He’s a nice high end TE2.

Miller is a solid, but unspectacular tight end, but he should surpass the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year for reasons I listed under Antonio Brown’s write up. Still, it’s hard to recommend Miller as a TE1.

Projection: 57 catches 700 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard/157 pts PPR)

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Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Ravens

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

8/27/12: I’m moving Flacco up a little bit too with Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has enjoyed a strong preseason overall, completing 71.7% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception. He could have a career high year, but remains just a QB2 with upside because of the Ravens’ still conservative offense.

You always know what you’re getting from the best quarterback in the league. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s had 21, 25, and 20 touchdowns, 12, 10, and 10 interceptions, and 3613, 3622, and 3610 passing yards. He’ll be in that range once again this year which makes him a solid QB2.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (228 pts standard, 272 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

7/1/12: When the Ravens used a 3rd round pick on Bernard Pierce, I thought it would be so that Pierce (27 touchdowns in 11 games last year) could play Willis McGahee’s old role as a short yardage back and vulture touchdowns. However, Pierce is reportedly not impressing in practice and has yet to even leap Anthony Allen on the depth chart. It sounds like whoever Rice’s backup is will be a pure backup this year, so you can feel free to take Rice early in the 1st round in fantasy leagues unless he holds out long into Training Camp. Franchise tagged players can’t sign long term deals after July 16th so there wouldn’t be much point in him doing so however.

Ray Rice went from a good fantasy back to a great one last year when touchdown vulture Willis McGahee signed in Denver. This year, he should make the opposite transition. The Ravens spent a 3rd round pick on Bernard Pierce, who scored 27 touchdowns in 11 games last year at Temple. He’ll vulture touchdowns away just like McGahee did. Rice also might not see the 307 carries he had in 2010 or the 291 carries he had in 2011 because they did spent a 3rd round pick on a backup. Pierce is more talented than Willis McGahee or Ricky Williams.

His 4.7 YPC from 2011 should also decrease with Ben Grubbs leaving town, as well as the potential that Rice holds out into Training Camp. We all saw how that affected Chris Johnson last year. He should still be a good fantasy back, especially in PPR leagues, but he’ll be limited by his touchdown totals. The 5 guys ahead of him on the running back list, as well as some below him on this list, should score more frequently than him.

Projection: 290 carries 1310 rushing yards 13 total touchdowns 70 catches 620 receiving yards (271 pts standard/341 pts PPR)

RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

7/1/12: Pierce is a pure handcuff for Rice, if he can even win the job. Don’t bother.

There’s some value with Pierce because he’ll probably vulture touchdowns away from Ray Rice. Pierce rushed for 27 touchdowns in 11 games for Temple last year and Willis McGahee rushed for 20 touchdowns over 2 seasons as a touchdown vulture behind Ray Rice from 2009-2010. However, unless Ray Rice gets hurt or holds out into the season, Pierce won’t be anything more than a handcuff this season.

Projection: 80 carries 340 rushing yards 2 total touchdowns 10 catches 70 receiving yards (53 pts standard/63 pts PPR)

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

8/27/12: Torrey Smith exploded for 8 catches for 103 yards in the Ravens’ 3rd preseason game in not even 3 full quarters worth of action. He might be even more likely to have a Mike Wallace type breakout year than I originally imagined.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia. Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver.

We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. There’s definitely upside to be had with the speedy Smith in the mid rounds.

Projection: 70 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

WR Anquan Boldin (Baltimore)

If Torrey Smith goes up, that must mean Anquan Boldin goes down. Boldin is entering his age 32 season and has really shown signs of aging in the past 2 years. I mentioned Smith’s last 7 games in his writeup, well in Boldin’s last 5 (he missed two with injury), he caught 14 balls for 236 yards and a score, good for 45 catches for 762 yards and 3 touchdowns over 16 games. Keep in mind, he’s now a year older on the wrong side of 30 and Smith is another year older and healthier. There’s clear downside here with not much upside.

Projection: 50 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard, 144 pts PPR)

TE Ed Dickson (Baltimore)

Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are both solid tight ends who essentially cancel other out for fantasy purposes. Dickson is the more productive of the two. He should replicate the 54 catches for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns he had last year, but neither he nor Pitta are TE1s.

Projections: 55 catches 550 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

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Titans to go to a more wide open offense in 2012

stevenlourie News

Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans were a run heavy, defense, field position team, but with Fisher gone, it appears they’ve gone in another direction. They spent a 1st round pick on a wide receiver, Kendall Wright, despite having 2 good under 30 ones, Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, and they also have a very good, young pass catching tight end in Jared Cook. They spent a 1st round pick on a quarterback last year. They also ranked 30th in the league in rushing attempts last year.

It appears things won’t be much different this year. In an interview, Nate Washington said he expects offensive coordinator Chris Palmer to install a more wide-open and explosive offense in 2012. They should be a fun and exciting young team to watch, especially if Jake Locker becomes their quarterback, as they compete for a playoff spot once again. In 2011, they were the only 9 win team to miss out on the playoffs.

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