Spotlight #1: Nebraska DT Jared Crick

Spotlight #2: Wisconsin S Aaron Henry 

1^st quarter

14:51: Crick run at, disengages, tackle for short gain.

13:42: Crick unblocked into backfield, whiffs on a tackle as a quick quarterback is able to evade it.

13:07: Crick sealed off the play on a run.

12:19: Crick double teamed on a blitz, Lavonte David, the linebacker, with a sack. Lavonte David is one of several highly rated prospects on Nebraska’s defense. He’s projected in about round 2 right now.

11:05: Henry finishes a guy off after a first down completion earned by breaking a couple tackles.

10:52: Henry helps in coverage on a deep route, runs well with the receiver, incomplete pass.

7:32: Henry explodes in for a clutch stop just short of the first on 2^nd down.

6:53: Henry in on a fumble, recovered by Nebraska.

5:58: Henry shows poor instincts on a goal line run.

5:16: Crick breaks into the backfield, but the quarterback rolls away from him.

4:39: Crick forced off of the line on a run play.

4:00: Crick forced off of the line on a pass play, eventually forces the quarterback out of bounds on a decided quarterback run after a big gain.

2:51: Crick with a nice swim move, but misses a dive tackle on a powerful running back, Montee Ball.

2:16: Crick pancaked.

1:28: Crick muscled off the line on the goal line. He’s struggling with this stronger Wisconsin line.

2^nd quarter

14:53: Henry on a nice tackle on a big quarterback run.

13:36: Henry blocked off the play on a big YAC catch.

12:31: Nick Toon with an amazing catch for Wisconsin against double coverage 38 yards. This is one for the highlight reel.

12:11: Crick run at, unable to disengage.

11:14: Crick gets push and gets his hands up, almost able to deflect it.

10:54: Crick with a nice swim move, but the quarterback is so fast, runs right past him.

9:48: Crick pushed off run play again, run at, can’t disengage. He’s having all kinds of trouble with Wisconsin’s line.

6:36: Nick Toon with a nice catch on not the most accurate short slant.

6:08: Lavonte David with his 2^nd sack of the night.

4:52: Mike Taylor, who has made a few nice run plays, makes a pick as a coverage linebacker.

4:38: Crick with a weak effort on a pass play. Took that play off big time.

3:54: Crick with another lazy effort. He seems to be putting in less effort, frustrated with Wisconsin’s line dominating him. That’s a very bad thing.

3:41: Toon gets position, short first down catch. I’ve been very impressed with him.

1:20: Henry with nice coverage and gets the pick on an overthrow. He was in the right place at the right time and the ball was pretty much thrown to him.

1:01: Crick goes in coverage on a blitz out of necessity and gets a tackle after a short completion.

0:52: Nick Toon with another touchdown. Huge game for the senior receiver.

 

3^rd quarter

14:40: Crick blocked, able to disengage and get in on the tackle, but only after a 9 yard gain.

11:49: Crick pushed off the line on 4^th and short, Wisconsin converts.

8:53: Crick gets into the backfield and pressures the quarterback.

8:25: Run right through Crick’s gap, Crick can’t disengage.

7:53: Lazy effort by Crick after being beat off the snap and pushed back big time. Give up play.

7:08: Crick shies away from helping on a tackle.

4^th quarter

14:55: Henry in on a tackle on a quarterback run stopped for a short gain.

12:41: Lavonte David explosive to blow up play in the backfield. He’s been Nebraska’s most impressive defensive player tonight.

5:11: Montee Ball with his 4^th rushing touchdown on the night. He’s looked like a very good back tonight. It’s worth noting that Crick wasn’t in on that entire series.

4:54: Henry with a tackle on the sideline.

0:00: I watched this game because Jared Crick has recently torn a pectoral muscle and is out for the season, and thus for his college career as he is a senior. The last time I saw Crick was against Washington and I said he was the most talented player on the field. He had an excellent game, but that’s Washington. This is Wisconsin.

Crick was absolutely outmuscled by Wisconsin’s big line. I know Wisconsin might have the best offensive line in college football, but Crick is going to play to go against lines like this all the time in the NFL. They dominated him for most of the game and on several plays, he appeared to give up after getting beat off the snap. At 6-5 285, Crick probably doesn’t have the size or strength to stay inside at defensive tackle in the NFL. He belongs at 3-4 defensive end, much like former Nebraska defensive tackle Adam Carriker.

Crick is quick and long. He uses his great, long arms to bat balls down, or, in this game, block a field goal. He’s a good pass rusher as well and even got some pressure in this game. He has 19.5 sacks in the last 2 plus years, but he’s not good enough against the run to stay inside in the NFL against NFL caliber lines, which Wisconsin really is.

Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, once a projected first round pick, struggled some in coverage tonight as well. However, Lavonte David impressed once again. He had 2 sacks and looked explosive all night long. He certainly didn’t give up in this game. He’s solidified his standing as a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

As for Wisconsin, Aaron Henry is their best defense player and one of the top safeties in this very weak safety class. He’s solid in coverage and played deep on most plays. He looked great in coverage and had a nice pick as well. He also played pretty well against the run, but he wasn’t in on a ton of running plays because Wisconsin does line him up so deep because of his coverage abilities.

Mike Taylor is another talented defensive player for Wisconsin. He not only had a pick, but he also had 14 tackles on the day to give the senior 36 tackles in 4 games. The senior linebacker is moving up boards and getting onto NFL scouts’ radar as a senior. Right now, he projects as a day 3 prospect, but he and Henry are the only legitimate NFL prospects on Wisconsin’s defense.

Fortunately, they make up for it with all of their talented players on offense. Center Peter Konz, right guard Kevin Zietler, and left tackle Ricky Wagner could all be day 2 picks or higher. Konz especially had a great game tonight against Jared Crick and another talented Nebraska defensive lineman Baker Steinkuhler. I’ll have to spotlight him, but after talented Ohio State center Mike Brewster, he might be the best center in this class.

Wisconsin also has a lot of skill position talent. Nick Toon had several highlight reel catches. He caught 4 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown to give the senior receiver 25 catches for 447 yards and 6 scores on the year. He also looks like a day 2 prospect. Another potential day 2 prospect is Montee Ball, who rushed for 4 touchdowns tonight. On the year, he has 93 catches for 511 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. He’s also caught 6 passes for 120 yards and another score.

Finally, there’s Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson is undersized at 5-11 200, but he has a high release point on his throws like Drew Brees, who is also about 6 foot tall. He’s mobile as well and he’s got a strong arm, especially for his size. He’s having a fantastic season for Wisconsin, completing 74.8% of his passes for an average of 12.6 per attempt and 13 touchdowns to 1 interception, as well as 140 yards rushing and 2 rushing touchdowns. I’ll have to spotlight him at some point, but if he keeps this up and he picks football over baseball, he could be a mid round prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft.

 

 

McGahee probably doesn’t have a ton left in the tank. He’s 30 in October and this deal takes him until he’s 32, a 3 year deal, and he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last year. However, he only has 1541 career carries which makes him fresher than a lot of backs his age and he hasn’t had to carry a load since 2007. He was the best running back remaining, assuming Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Bush return to their respective teams, and the Broncos needed another back to go with Knowshon Moreno. They also got him on a fairly low risk contract, 3 years, 7.5 million, with 3 million guaranteed.

Grade: A

 

 

Are the Redskins trying to sign every washed up running back in the league? Clinton Portis will turn 29 next season. He’s the incumbent starter, but he had some nasty issues last year with a concussion, as well as leg injuries, and only managed 494 yards and a score on 124 carries. He’s the young one of the group. Parker turns 30 in November and is coming off of two injury riddled years. He only managed 389 yards and no scores on 98 carries last year. Larry Johnson turns 31 in November. He leads the group in carries (178) and yards (581) from last year, but he still didn’t score a touchdown all year and managed a pathetic 3.3 YPC. All 3 of those guys will be 29 or older next year, which is like being 39 in normal years. I really don’t see a starting running back anywhere in this group and adding all of these washed up veterans is hurting them for the future. First of all, they might not have another roster spot for another running back, though I know Mike Shanahan would love to take a guy in the 5^th round. Second of all, the only way they can get that young, talented running back, any experience at all, would be to piss off a bunch of old established veterans who think they are still 25, 26, still get paid like feature backs, but are not.

Grade: C-

 

 

Resigning Colon to a long term deal is a risk because he missed all of last season with an injury, but if he can stay healthy and bounce back from that injury as the player he was before the injury, he’s well worth the 29 million over 5 years the Steelers gave him, as one of the best right tackle in the league. Good news for Steelers fan, only 7.5 million of this deal is guaranteed so it’s fairly low risk.

Grade: A

 

 

The Cardinals lost Richard Marshall in free agency to the Dolphins, so they had to do something to get a new nickel cornerback. That’s exactly what Gay can do for them. He’s coming over from Pittsburgh, so he’ll have familiarity in their style of defense and he comes very cheap, 3.2 million over 2 years, compared to Marshall, who got 16 million over 3 years from Miami.

Grade: A

 

Last week overall: 12-4

Last week ATS: 9-7 (+230/+6%)

Overall picks: 168-88 (.656)

ATS Picks: 136-113-7 (+$2680)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 32-35 (+1538)

Sports Betting FAQ

Week 17 recap: I managed to make money ($230 or 6%) despite losing a 5 unit and a 4 unit pick in my lowest money 16 game week of the season. This is because I nailed my 2^nd 6 unit pick of the season. New England -3 at home over Miami seemed too good to be true, but it wasn’t and it came through huge for me this week.

I only had 5 picks of 3 or more units this week, because of how uncertain week 17 can be. Despite dropping my 5 unit (St. Louis -3 over Seattle) and my 4 unit (Arizona +6.5 over San Francisco), I was 3-2 in those 5 picks, hitting with New England as well as Oakland +4 over Kansas City and Tampa Bay +9.5 over New Orleans for 3 units a piece.

I want to comment on the St. Louis game and all of the terrible calls made by the officials. I’m not blaming my lost 5 units on the refs. I still think the Seahawks win that game even with correct officiating, but the officiating was horrible and needs to be mentioned.

The refs missed an off sides call on Aaron Curry in which Curry was actually looking around for a flag after the play, expecting to be called off sides. Cris Collinsworth and Al Michaels (best football announcers on the planet) blasted the refs for missing this call. They also missed a low block on a punt and a pass interference call, both on the Seahawks.

Finally, they called a first down at least 1 yard short of the sticks, causing Al Michaels to scream “they gave him a first down?!?!” Now of course Steve Spagnuolo could have challenged the spot of the ball (as well as a very borderline out of bounds call on what looked like a clean catch), but someone seems to have stolen all of his red flags, because he didn’t throw one all night.

Overall, I was 9-7 on the week bringing me to 136-113-7 on the season against the spread, which I am pleased with, as this is my first season doing against the spread. I went 12-4 on the week straight up, bringing me to 168-88 straight up on the year (65.6%). Last year I finished 166-90, so I made a two game improvement. In 2008, I went 153-102-1.

This week I split four upset picks, hitting Oakland over Kansas City (+180) and Dallas over Philadelphia (+135) and dropping Washington over the Giants and Jacksonville over Houston. This brought my upset pick record to 32-35 on the season. Betting $100 on each of those games’ money lines, I would have made $1538 on the season, in addition to $2680 from my ATS picks (betting roughly $4500-$5000 per week). Last year, I went 19-29 on upsets and in 2008 I went 21-27.

On lock picks, I went 12-5 this year, down a game from 13-4 in 2009, and down 2 from 14-3 in 2008, which I find interesting. I don’t assign any monetary value to this record because I don’t think anyone should bet on a favorite on a money line, but it’s helpful for survivor pools.

I kept track of how I well or poorly I picked teams’ games this year and I actually used these in my picks some weeks.

I won 10 or more times betting on the following teams’ games

New England (11-4-1)

NY Jets (12-4)

Buffalo (11-5)

San Diego (11-5)

Philadelphia (10-6)

Tampa Bay (10-4-2)

Atlanta (12-4)

Carolina (11-5)

Arizona (10-5-1)

I lost 10 or more times with the following teams

Jacksonville (4-12)

Dallas (6-10)

New Orleans (6-10)

Seattle (5-11)

I like that ratio. I will keep a more in depth list of this on my site next year (record betting on a team, record betting against a team, total record betting on a team’s games, total money made betting on a team’s games, total money made betting against a team, total money made betting on a team). Overall, I was pleased with how I did this season and I hope I made some people some money. I will continue to post playoff picks and playoff ATS picks, but the bulk of the handicapping is over for this season.

First a note on betting on the playoffs, if you bet on every game in a week with 4 games, you have a 6.25% chance of losing all of your money. Remember that and be sure that you can be comfortable laying that much on a single week. If you bet $4000 a week in the regular season, but aren’t comfortable with the 6.25% chance that you lose $4000, don’t bet $4000. If there’s only 2 games being played, you have a 25% chance of going broke and, obviously, in the Super Bowl, a 50% chance.

New Orleans Saints 26 Seattle Seahawks 20

Spread: New Orleans -10.5

Pick against spread: Seattle 5 units (+500)

The Seahawks are the worst team to ever make the playoffs and only made the playoffs because of where they are located. You can read more about it here. However, this spread still doesn’t make sense. Even terrible teams haven’t been double digit home underdogs this year. The Seattle Seahawks are the first team to be underdogs by 10+ at home all season.

This seems like a trap line, feeding off the public overreaction to the Seahawks making the playoffs. With roughly 80% of the public betting on New Orleans, this trap seems to be doing its job. Another prominent trap line was in Super Bowl 42. The Patriots were double digit favorites on a neutral field. That line prayed on the public’s belief that the New York Giants were the worst team to ever make the Super Bowl and that the Patriots were awesome and invincible. A lot of people lost a lot of money that day.

The way Vegas lines work in the NFL is that Vegas determines which team is the better team and by how many points. Then they give the road team 3 points. That means this line would be -16.5 in New Orleans, easily the highest line of the season. That doesn’t make any sense because this line was -11.5 when these two met in New Orleans week 11. Seattle only lost that one by 15, a mere 3.5 ATS loss. And that wasn’t like they didn’t have a shot. The Seahawks had 494 yards of total offense in that 34-19 loss, but two costly and poorly timed Marshawn Lynch fumbles doomed them.

Now the Saints are expected to go into Seattle and win by 11. That’s no easy task. Even with their 7-9 record, the Seahawks are 5-3 at home. The Saints may be 6-2 on the road, but let’s look at their road games that were played outside, rather than in a dome. They beat San Francisco by 3. They had a huge blowout over the Buccaneers, who weren’t great at the time. They had a huge blowout over the Panthers (who didn’t). They beat Cincinnati by 4 and they lost to Baltimore. There are drawbacks to playing in a dome at home. Teams with home domes tend to struggle outside on the road.

The Saints have to make a fairly long journey to Seattle and play in one of the loudest stadiums in the nation. The Seahawks are going to have the momentum in this one. They are coming off an energizing win over the Rams and now people (including myself) are saying they don’t belong in the playoffs. That’s got to be motivation for them in this home playoff game. The Saints, meanwhile, could easily overlook the Seahawks here. The Saints are also possibly without Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Shockey, and Jimmy Graham. If any of those 5 do play, they’ll be limited by injury. Drew Brees won’t have the weapons he normally does.

Finally, while the Seahawks are the worst team to ever make the playoffs, other bad teams have made the playoffs before. The 9-7 Arizona Cardinals in 1998 made the playoffs with a differential of -53. They ended up winning their road playoff game by 13 in Dallas, the franchise’s first since 1947. The 8-8 Rams made in it 2004 with a differential of -73. They ended up winning in Seattle by 7. In both cases, it could easily be argued that the bad playoff team was simply overlooked.

I don’t think the Seahawks will win this game, but I really like their chances to cover this spread. Also keep in mind that the Saints are 3-9 ATS as double digit favorites in the Sean Payton era. I’m making this a 5 unit selection. It will be dropped to 4 if Charlie Whitehurst starts for the Seahawks, but it’s looking like it’ll be Hasselbeck.

Indianapolis Colts 30 New York Jets 20

Spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 2 units (-220)

This game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. The Colts won that 30-17, for simple reasons. The Jets are a blitz and take away the opposing team’s top receiver team. Peyton Manning can pick apart defenses that blitz and he had so many options (Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark) that the Jets couldn’t stop just one. Wayne only had 55 yards, but Clark, Collie, and Garcon combined for 309 yards as the Colts offense totaled 461 yards of offense.

Things have changed since then. The Colts line is terrible this year, so while Manning can still pick apart a defense that blitzes, he’ll have slightly less time in the pocket to do so. The Jets have also added Antonio Cromartie so they have more than one good cornerback. Also, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark are out and Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne have been dropping passes all year.

Still, I like the Colts in this one. This Jets defense isn’t quite what it used to be. They gave up 38 points to a Bears a couple weeks ago and 45 to the Patriots. They can be scored on. Like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning can pick apart blitzes and Rex Ryan (as a coordinator or a coach) has only beaten Peyton Manning once and that was because Manning was benched mid 3^rd quarter for rest purposes. If the Jets defense becomes picked apart, this really becomes a matchup between Peyton Manning -2.5 and Mark Sanchez in Indianapolis. Simply put, Sanchez would be screwed.

Manning might not have the weapons like he did last year, but he still has the mindset he did last year which is that his favorite target is the open one and that’s how you beat the Jets’ defense. You don’t play favorites with your receivers. Blair White and Jacob Tamme might not be Collie and Clark, but they can still get the job done. I like the Colts to win here at home and advance to the 2^nd round against a fairly even spread.

Baltimore Ravens 21 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Spread: Baltimore -3

Pick against spread: Baltimore 4 units (+400)

I am kind of pissed off that the Chiefs were terrible last week. Not because I like this team or anything, but because I wanted to bet heavily against them. Their terrible loss to the Raiders last week has dropped this line to -3, meaning the Chiefs are field goal underdogs at home. I am still going to bet against the Chiefs, but not for 5 units as I would have if this were an even line.

The Chiefs have literally beaten up on, as Gordon Gee would say, little sisters of the poor all season. They’ve beaten one playoff team all year, the Seattle Seahawks, which doesn’t really count. The only +.500 team they beat was San Diego by 7, week 1, in a fluke game in which Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards. In that game, their 3 touchdowns came on a pick six, a punt return TD, and a long run. That fluke win is the reason why they’re in the playoffs. The Chargers avenged that loss with a 31-0 win later in the season.

The Chiefs have played 12 games against teams ranked 17^th or worse against the run. This is significant because they are a run first offense. Baltimore has always been known as a run stuffing team, so much so that their 8^th ranked run defense this year was mildly disappointing. However, when you look at their last few games, you see they’re really better than that. In their last 3, they have allowed opposing teams to rush for 219 yards on 70 carries, an average of 3.1 per carry. In their last 5, they have allowed 384 yards on 116 carries, an average of 3.3. Jamaal Charles and company could really be limited in this one.

Unable to run, this team will be able to be blitzed and as we saw against Oakland, who sacked Cassel 7 times, this offensive line can’t handle blitzes. Because of the spread, this is only a 4 unit pick, but I don’t like the Chiefs’ chances in this one. It would be 5, but we could see a push or a stupid backdoor cover to keep this one within 3. I don’t think Kansas City wins though. Teams that don’t rest starters and lose their week 17 by 17+ are 0-5 ATS the next week since 2002.

Green Bay Packers 31 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick (+110)

Spread: -2.5 Philadelphia

Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units (+300)

Andy Reid says Michael Vick could be benched this week if he struggles to pick up blitzes like he did week 16 against Minnesota, when he took 6 sacks. I don’t think Vick gets benched, but it just shows how far this team has fallen in the past month or so. Vick isn’t playing like he did in November when he was on top of the world. In fact, aside from those 8 minutes against the reeling Giants, he didn’t have a great month at all.

Now he has to face the Green Bay Packers, arguably the most athletic defense in the league. Dom Capers has a very athletic defense at his disposal and he blitzes really well with them, as we saw last week against Chicago. Philadelphia’s offensive line is terrible, surrendering 50 sacks this season, tied for 2^nd most behind Chicago. Vick will almost certainly be under pressure all game and he struggles under pressure. Not to mention, this back 7 has the athleticism to limit long gains on runs and can slow down the Eagles speedy receivers.

The Eagles defense isn’t playing too well either. Other than last week’s fluke performance against the Cowboys, the last time they gave up less than 24 was week 11. Even Joe Webb led his team to 24 against this defense.

While the Eagles are struggling, the Packers are playing well right now. Their +148 differential leads the NFC and they haven’t lost a game by more than 4 all season, not even against the Pats in Foxboro without Aaron Rodgers. They’ve won their last 2, and teams that win their last 2, yet are underdogs in the first round of the playoffs, are 6-3 ATS since 2002.

The Packers also beat the Eagles week 1. Teams that beat a team in the regular season are 16-8 straight up against that same team in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is also 7-4 ATS as an underdog. Oh and don’t forget, the Packers were my Super Bowl pick to start the year. I’m taking Kuhn and Friends for 3.

 

 

Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P

Scoring System

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
<40 No NFL Future

 

1. Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) 90

2. Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) 89

3. Kendall Wright (Baylor) 87

4. Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 82

5. Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma) 78

6. Reuben Randle (LSU) 77

7. Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) 77

8. Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) 76

9. Chris Givens (Wake Forest) 74

10. Nick Toon (Wisconsin) 74

11. Juron Criner (Arizona) 73

12. Joe Adams (Arkansas) 72

13. Marvin McNutt (Iowa) 71

14. Gerell Robinson (Arizona State) 71

15. Marvin Jones (California) 71

16. Dwight Jones (North Carolina) 70

17. TY Hilton (Florida International) 69

18. Tommy Streeter (Miami) 66

19. Greg Childs (Arkansas) 65

20. Brian Quick (Appalachian State) 64

21. Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M) 62

22. AJ Jenkins (Illinois) 61

23. TJ Graham (NC State) 60

24. Jarius Wright (Arkansas) 59

25. Danny Coale (Virginia Tech) 58

26. Devon Wylie (Fresno State) 57

27. DeVier Posey (Ohio State) 57

28. Tim Benford (Tennessee Tech) 56

29. LeVon Brazill (Ohio) 55

30. Chris Owusu (Stanford) 52

31. Risard Matthews (Nevada) 51

32. BJ Cunningham (Michigan State) 48

33. Jordan White (Western Michigan) 45

 

 

 

Updated 4/20/11

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT 3-4 DE NT MLB OLB CB S K P

Scoring System 

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

 

1. AJ Green 96 (Georgia)

2. Julio Jones 96 (Alabama)

3. Jonathan Baldwin 86 (Pittsburgh)

4. Leonard Hankerson 82 (Miami)

5. Titus Young 81 (Boise State)

6. Torrey Smith 69 (Maryland)

7. Vincent Brown 69 (San Diego State)

8. Randall Cobb 67 (Kentucky)

9. Edmond Gates 67 (Abilene Christian)

10. Dwayne Harris 66 (East Carolina)

11. Greg Little 65 (North Carolina)

12. Tandon Doss 62 (Indiana) 

13. Jerrel Jernigan 61 (Troy)

14. Jeremy Kerley 61 (TCU)

15. Lyle Leong 57 (Texas Tech) 

16. Dane Sanzenbacher 56 (Ohio State)

17. Terrance Toliver 55 (LSU)

18. Niles Paul 54 (Nebraska)

19. Denarius Moore 51 (Tennessee)

20. Cecil Shorts 50 (Mount Union)

21. Stephen Burton 49 (West Texas A&M)

22. Aldrick Robinson 47 (SMU)

23. Ronald Johnson 46 (USC)

24. Darvin Adams 45 (Auburn)

25. Jeff Maehl 43 (Oregon)

26. Armon Binns 42 (Cincinnati)

27. Ryan Whalen 42 (Stanford)

 

  

 

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

Updated: 4/17/10 

Scoring System: 

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

 

1. Damian Williams (USC) 87

Doesn’t get the big hype of guys like Dez Bryant and Golden Tate, but I think he’s the best overall wide receiver in this draft class because he possesses two traits, in addition to his natural athleticism, that very few wide receivers his age do, good route running, and a humble personality. He really knows how to get open and catch the ball at the best possible point and he’s not one to complain if a quarterback doesn’t throw to him. He’d be a perfect fit for a west coast offense and he can also return punts. He hasn’t been off the charts in terms of production, but he’s led the Trojans in catches and receiving yards in each of the last two years and had 70 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns this year in a pro style offense, despite having a true freshman at quarterback.

2. Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) 86

3/30/10: Bryant’s measurables and workout in the positional drills, especially after basically a year off of football, were really impressive considering he was wearing brand new cleats that had not been broken in before. However, when you consider that the reason he did not have cleats is because he “forgot,” it’s hard to consider this pro day a success. He is known for having mental lapses on the field, and dropped a few catchable balls today, so forgetting something as important as your cleats cancels out the good that the strong workout did, especially when it’s something as important of your Pro Day after being suspended a whole year for something stupid. He really did not seem to get the importance of this day. 

Suspended for something bizarre, but that shouldn’t hurt his draft stock too much. The character red flags are there and he doesn’t always seem to have his head in the game. He drops way too many passes and isn’t a good route runner, but he’s going to be an excellent #2 deep threat at the next level at worst. He has an amazing size, speed combination and is extremely dangerous in the open field.

3. Golden Tate (Notre Dame) 82          

2/28/10: He’s got more speed than I thought. I was expecting 4.4-4.45 and he ran 4.36 on a day where some receivers have been running slower than expected. I still have concerns about his ability to be a #1 option at 5-10, but this kind of speed helps.      

2/26/10: We knew Tate was on the short side, but he barely measured at 5-10 at his weigh in. There aren’t a lot of #1 options that are that short. He’ll still be a good player and he’s the second most NFL ready player in this draft class after Damian Williams, but he has future #2 written all over him and not future #1.

His production 151 catches for 2576 yards and 25 scores over the last two years, in a pro style offense is amazing, but he may be maxed out athletically and he doesn’t have a great upside. His 40 time is poor for his size and he may have trouble finding a niche as a wide receiver at the next level. A lot of his statistical prowess can be attributed to having Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, but he should still be a fine #2 wide receiver at the next level because he has very reliable hands and runs good routes for someone his age.

4. Brandon LaFell (LSU) 79                  

2/28/10: He wasn’t supposed to be a speed demon, but a 4.59 hurts a lot. He’s not going to get a lot of separation at the next level. He also measured in at 6-2 this week instead of 6-4 so his stock could be taking a drop this week.

The perfect fit for a run heavy pro style offense because he has experience running pro style routes and he’s an amazing run blocker for his age. His frame is still a bit wiry and that could lead to injuries at the next level as he tries to make some of the crazy catches he made in college, but he’s certainly not afraid of anything and will throw his body around for the ball fearlessly. 57 catches for 792 yards doesn’t seem like much for a senior season, but when you consider that LSU passed 336 times this season, all of a sudden those numbers look really good. He was by far the most dominant end zone threat on his roster and his 11 touchdowns more than tripled the total of the guy who was second on the team. He’s got good height, good hands, good fearlessness, good run blocking, and a good red zone presence, but needs to put on more muscle and he’s not fast in comparison to some of the receivers in this draft class.

5. Eric Decker (Minnesota) 77

What you see is what you get with him, but what you’re getting is a big consistent #2 option with good hands. He’s not overly athletic, but he’ll be a good red zone threat and possession receiver with his size and good hands. He’ll compliment an inconsistent deep threat very well at the next level, but there isn’t a ton of upside with him.

6. Dezmon Briscoe (Kansas) 76             

2/28/10: He’s a talented physical receiver, but receivers who run 4.61 40s normally have a lot of trouble gaining separation in the NFL. I was afraid his time would be bad, but I didn’t expect this bad.

A handful to take down in the open field and a great red zone presence, but he doesn’t run routes well, his 40 time and straight line speed are very poor, and his strong stats came in a weird offense that inflates stats. Still, he can be coached into being a good route runner and if he is, he’ll be a very dangerous wide receiver because he moves and breaks tackles like a running back in the open field. He may be a late bloomer as a wide receiver, but he has good upside and could contribute right away in a big way in a spread style offense.

7. Jeremy Williams (Tulane) 75

1/30/10: He was the South’s Marshawn Gilyard, leading all receivers with 6 catches, and also added a nice 27 yard run where he flashed a lot of speed I didn’t even know he had. He has a nasty injuries of injuries, two ACL repairs, but he has all the skills and could be looking at the 2nd round now.

He’d be ranked higher if he weren’t always hurt, but he has a long history of injuries. He finally put all the tools together this year and he has a good size speed combination and the upside to be a nice #2 receiver but his past inconsistencies and injuries will drive scouts nuts and that should drop him into the 3^rd round. He also never played a tough level of competition.

 

8. Arrelious Benn (Illinois) 74

If he gets drafted high it will be on what he can do not on what he has done. He dropped way too many passes this season, looked timid going over the middle of the field and in the end zone, but he has an amazing physical build and coaching staff may look to bring a future #1 option out of him. Scouts could also blame his awful statistical season this year on the fact that Juice Williams was his quarterback. Williams is probably the worst quarterback to ever play the game. I’m barely exaggerating.

9. Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati) 74              

2/28/10: I have a feeling Gilyard was just having a bad day, he looked WAY faster this season than the 4.56 he ran today. However, I’m moving him down my board a little until he runs a faster time at his Pro Day.

1/30/10: He was the North’s leading receiver with 5 catches for 102 yards and a score and made some very impressive catches against tough coverage. These catches were ones where the defender didn’t give him a ton of room, but he either was able to create just enough separation to get the ball, or able to make an acrobatic catch away from his body. He also was one of the better kick returners in this game as well. I think he dispelled the concerns about his size from earlier this week (weighing in at 8-10 lighter and 2 inches shorter than he was listed), and actually got a comparison to DeSean Jackson by the commentators. I wouldn’t quite say that, but he certainly has the look of an NFL wide receiver and also a kick returner.

1/26/10:  Measuring 2 inches shorter than what you were listed at is never a good thing. 

Needs to bulk up, but he projects as a nice slot receiver at the next level. He has very good agility and would be a welcome addition to a team as a punt returner as well and he runs fast straight line like a gazelle, but he comes from a spread offense so he may be a system player that doesn’t translate well to the NFL.

10. Dexter McCluster (Mississippi) 73                 

2/28/10: Surprisingly, his 4.55 40 at 5-9 173 doesn’t hurt him that much in my book, but it has to hurt him some considering we were expecting a high 4.3, maybe low 4.4 at worse. However, this is one of those guys who is faster in pads than he is timed and stronger than his size. He should still catch on somewhere in the NFL as that Percy Harvin type player.

2/27/10: How do you bench 20 reps of 225 pounds when you are a mere 173 pounds? That is crazy! This little guy may be small, but he is tough, he is strong, he is committed, and he is damn fast as well. 

A blur of a football player who is a bit undersized. He has lined up at both running back and wide receiver in his career and had 1169 rushing yards and 520 receiving yards last season. He has also lined up as a wildcat so there’s going to be a spot in the NFL for him, though it is not going to be a conventional one. He will play the Percy Harvin role for a team, a slot receiver, return guy, and occasional 3^rd down back and wildcat and will be plenty valuable doing so.

11. Danario Alexander (Missouri) 73                     

1/30/10: For all he was targeted, and he was one of the most targeted wide receivers in the first half, he didn’t make a catch. He looked about two steps slower than everyone on the field and didn’t seem to have his head in the game. On one play he was wide open, but failed to catch the ball because he didn’t know it had been thrown to him until it was too late. He played very little in the 2nd half, not surprisingly.

Played in a weird offense and has awful speed, but his size and strength could make him a very nice red zone specialist wide receiver at the next level. He’ll also fit into a wide receiver rotation well right away if a team runs a shotgun style offense. His hands are reliable and he’s a big moving target at 6-5, but his route running and speed are very poor.

12. Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech) 69

Played in a weird offense and doesn’t have great speed, but a 25.1 YPC is nothing to overlook. He’s got good size at 6-3 229, but he’ll have trouble getting separation at the next level. He’s like a running back in the open field and he has good size. He may have a future as a goal line receiver and he’s also a strong run blocker. He did hurt his foot and was unable to work out at the combine and may not have a chance to workout for teams before the draft, which hurts, but he should be good to go for team workouts.

13. Andre Roberts (Citadel) 66                   

1/27/10: Another small school kid showing that he can play with the big boys, he may only be 5-11 180, but he’s showing excellent hustle and discipline (going to Citadel a military academy esque school will do that for yoy), but also amazing route running abilities. He doesn’t have elite NFL athleticism, but he’s looking like a mini Wes Welker this week.

A small school receiver who held his own against the big school kids at the Senior Bowl. He’s got very solid hands and, at the very least, he’ll be a solid slot guy. He’s drawing premature comparisons to Wes Welker because of his hands and his ability to contribute as a kick returner.

14. Jacoby Ford (Clemson) 65                       

2/28/10: Ford currently holds the record for fastest 40 time at the 2010 combine by running a blazing 4.28. He didn’t produce much on the field last year, but speed thrills. He should be a solid slot receiver, who can help on special teams, at the next level.

A speed demon with a 4.28 40, but I have a few concerns about his abilities to be an elite receiver at the next level. He doesn’t run great route or have great hands or do anything that receivers are supposed to do very well, except, of course run. He would be a 6^th round prospect if he ran a 4.4 so I have some concerns about him being ranked 3 rounds higher just because he was .12 seconds faster than 4.4.

15. Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh) 64

2/27/10: The biggest question Dickerson has to answer is what is his position. He can produce on the field, but he’s played everything from fullback to linebacker to tight end (where he was an All-American) to wide receiver. After measuring in at 226 pounds he proved too small for the first 3 positions, but after running a 4.40 40 with 34 inch arms and benching 225 pounds 24 times, I think he could be a fairly decent wide receiver in the NFL. A 4.40 40 at 6-1 226 with that kind of strength makes him a very interesting wide receiver option for teams in the mid to late rounds.

1/26/10: Does he have a position? He played both tight end and fullback in college, but he doesn’t appear to be anywhere near big enough to play either of those at the NFL level which is a shame because of his production. His 40 time will have to be wide receiver esque for him to get drafted.

He played linebacker, full back, tight end, and wide receiver at Pittsburgh, making the All-American team as a tight end last year. However, at 6-1 226, he doesn’t have the size to play either of the first 3 positions so he would have to be a wide receiver or just a special teamer who doesn’t have a true position. However, at the combine, he ran a 4.40 showing true wide receiver speed. He has good size. He’s a good run blocker. I have some concerns about how he’ll transition full time to wide receiver, but he did run pro style routes as a tight end for Pittsburgh. 

16. Jordan Shipley (Texas) 63

2/28/10: Again, maybe another guy who has having a bad day, but a 4.57 hurts his stock until he proves himself to be faster than that at his pro day. This is a guy who needs to be fast at the next level to succeed.

He’s a fairly boring prospect, a what you see is what get type player, with good solid hands, but lacking athleticism and no major upside. He’s already 24, but he’s also already one of the most accomplished receivers in college football and he proved with his strong game in the BCS Championship that he could do it without Colt McCoy. He should be a good slot guy at the next level, but he lacked good speed at the combine which is a bit concerning.

17. Carlton Mitchell (South Florida) 59

Every draft class has it. That wide receiver with amazing athleticism that lacks the production to match it and gets over drafted. Last year we had Darrius Heyward Bey, this year, it could be Carlton Mitchell and his 4.40 speed at 6-3 215. However, because Al Davis doesn’t need receivers, I don’t think he’ll go in the first. The 3^rd or 4^th makes more sense for him and there’s no denying the upside, but I’ll be conservative with his grade because he never was dominant statistically.

18. Riley Cooper (Florida) 56

A very athletic wide receiver, but what other type does Florida have. He didn’t put it all together until this year when he had 51 catches for 961 yards and 9 touchdowns, so there’s the issue that he’s could be just a one year wonder. He is very similar to Louis Murphy coming out of Florida last year with his measurables.

19. Shay Hodge (Mississippi) 56

A pro style receiver with very good production this year with 1135 yards and 8 touchdowns, but he lacks breakaway speed, will struggle to get separation in the NFL, and he’s a bit of a one year wonder. He’s not a true one year wonder, but he does have some of the characteristics, plus, his hands are a bit inconsistent. He could be worth a 5^th rounder for depth.

20. Seyi Ajirotutu (Fresno State) 55

A big tall receiver at 6-4 and change who former Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer compared to a young Vincent Jackson, who he worked with in San Diego, at the East-West shrine game. However, he never dominated on a college level, despite not facing BCS conference caliber competition very often. He had 3 decent years and 2 above average ones, but his career high in receiving yards is 795 and that was in 2008. He’ll also struggle to get separation at the next level with his low 4.6 speed, so, I could see him panning out, but it’s not likely. He may just be a goal line option at the next level.

21. Mike Williams (Syracuse) 55

He has second round talent, but it’ll take a miracle and a stupid GM for him to be drafted in the first 3 rounds. He has been suspended for academic reasons for an entire year before and last year, he quit on his team unexpectedly and, at the combine, he showed up out of shape, only benching 8 reps despite putting on 15 pounds, and when asked about quitting on his team, he didn’t seem to even think it was a big deal. Proceed with caution.

22. Taylor Price (Ohio) 54

An athletic freak capable of many acrobatic catches who is loved by Todd McShay, but his hands are way too inconsistent. He makes tough catches, but he’ll drop easy ones and his instincts in terms of route running and getting open aren’t great.

23. Emmanuel Sanders (SMU) 54

One of the more accomplished wide receivers in this draft class with 285 receptions for 3791 yards and 34 touchdowns in his career, but a big chunk of that came in June Jones’ offense, which is notoriously bad at producing NFL players. However, he still showed good hands on tape, as well as a lot of other nice things, so he could be a solid depth guy at the next level, he has experience as a return man. 

24. Joe Webb (UAB) 53

1/30/10: I know he’s a former quarterback, but he really didn’t show that he has what it takes to be a wide receiver at the next level, which is what he needed to do because he’s not, I don’t think, an NFL caliber quarterback. On one play when Tim Tebow was in trouble, Webb needed to come back to his quarterback and help him out and he did not. His route running was poor and he also had a fairly easy drop. I think he’ll still get drafted late, but I’m not sure about his upside.

A three year starter at UAB, 2 as a quarterback, one as a receiver. He was actually pretty good as a quarterback this year with a 59.8% completion percentage, a 8.5 YPA, and 8 interceptions to 21 touchdowns and 1427 rushing yards on 227 attempts. However, he played in a shotgun offense and only really had one good year and I don’t think he has an NFL arm. He has NFL athleticism and could play wide receiver as well, but he wasn’t that great as a receiver as a sophomore and he struggled in the Senior Bowl. He’s a project, but he’s also an athlete with upside at multiple positions. 

25. Marcus Easley (Connecticut) 52

26. Naaman Roosevelt (Buffalo) 50

27. Blair White (Michigan State) 47

28. Chris McGaha (Arizona State) 46

29. David Gettis (Baylor) 46

30. David Reed (Utah) 45

31. Scott Long (Louisville) 44

32. Donald Jones (Youngstown State) 44

33. Stephen Williams (Toledo) 44

34. Freddie Barnes (Bowling Green) 42

35. Thomas Harris (Alabama A&M) 40