Month: May 2012

Why are these guys still

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Every week, I point out the diamond in the rough gems sitting on the waiver wire that you want ASAP, the players owned in fewer than 30% of all leagues that should be owned in most. In addition to that this week, I’m doing an article called, “why are these guys still on your roster,” highlighting the garbage that’s on more than 50% of rosters that should be promptly disposed of.

WR Roy Williams- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 67.1%

He played well for a 3 week stretch but right now he’s Jon Kitna’s #3 receiver. He has 1 catch for 21 yards in his last two games.

RB CJ Spiller- Buffalo

Percent owned (ESPN): 65.6%

You may have thought that because the Bills drafted him 9th, they’d use him. Apparently not. His season high in carries is 7.

QB Tony Romo- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 65.5%

He probably won’t play a game for the rest of the season.

 

RB Donald Brown- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 64.6%

He’s battled injuries problems all year and even if healthy, he’s probably their #3 back behind the emerging Mike Hart.

RB Tim Hightower- Arizona

Percent owned (ESPN): 62.9%

He hasn’t had more than 10 carries since week 3 when Chris Wells was still hurting and now he’s moved to #3 on the depth chart behind LaRod Stephens-Howling.

RB Cadillac Williams- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 59.8%

He’s averaging 2.5 YPC and has clearly lost his job to undrafted rookie LeGarrette Blount.

WR Bernard Berrian- Minnesota

Percent owned (ESPN): 52.6%

He’s yet to record more than 2 catches in a game this season, with or without Moss.

WR Vincent Jackson- San Diego

Percent owned (ESPN): 52.3%

He hasn’t played all year as he’s been holding out and suspended. He can’t play until week 12, when I doubt the Chargers will use him at all, even with all the injuries they have suffered at receiver.

RB Jerome Harrison- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 50.1%

Let’s see, he lost his job in Cleveland to Peyton Hillis and then got traded to Philly where he has 6 yards on 6 carries behind LeSean McCoy.

 

Whitney Mercilus Scout

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Defensive End/Rush Linebacker

Illinois

6-4 261

Draft board overall prospect rank: #5

Draft board defensive end rank: #1

Overall rating: 92 (top ten prospect)

40 time: 4.63

Games watched: Illinois/Michigan, Illinois/Wisconsin, Illinois/Penn State, Illinois/Ohio State

Positives

·         Incredibly productive 2011 season (57 tackles, 22.5 for loss, 16 sacks, 9 forced fumbles)

·         Very consistent (TFL in every game but 1, sack in every game but 2)

·         Very good pass rusher

·         Wide variety of pass rush moves

·         Good hand use

·         Athletic

·         Quick off the edge

·         Explosive off the line

·         Has experience rushing in a 2 point and 3 point stance

·         High level of competition

·         Played well against elite competition (2.5 sacks combined against Mike Adams/Ohio State and Ricky Wagner/Wisconsin)

·         Adequate size to play in a 4-3 (6-4 261)

·         Good 40 time (4.63)

·         Athletic enough to play in a 3-4 as a rush linebacker

·         Hard hitter who forced 9 fumbles

·         Good tackler in space

·         Played well against double teams

·         Great motor

·         High character kid

·         Great work ethic

·         Played through injury

·         All the intangibles

·         Breakout star who worked his way up the depth chart

Negatives

·         Only average functional strength

·         Can get washed against the run

·         Can get over powered by bigger offensive linemen

·         Only one year of production (2 sacks before this season)

·         Not a lot of experience in coverage

·         Could play with better leverage

NFL Comparison: Aldon Smith

This is a deep pass rusher class with guys like Mercilus, Quinton Coples, Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram, Chandler Jones, Shea McClellin, and Nick Perry all candidates to come off the board in some order in the first round and guys like Andre Branch, Vinny Curry, and Ronnell Lewis all likely to go in the 2nd round. However, Mercilus was the most productive of them all last season and I think he’s the best pure pass rusher.

Mercilus came out of nowhere this season to lead college football in sacks (16), forced fumbles (9), and come in 2nd in tackles for loss (22.5). Coming into the season, no one knew who Mercilus was. He was a mere 3 star recruit who only had 2 sacks in 2 seasons as a backup. However, he worked his way up the depth chart into the starting lineup and didn’t look back from there. He was also extremely consistent as he had a tackle for loss in every game but one and a sack in every game but two, including against Wisconsin, who has one of college football’s best offensive lines, and Mike Adams, a likely 2nd round pick.

The one year wonder thing is the reason why he’s not a legitimate consideration for the top 15. However, if Mercilus had come back for another season and had a strong year, he likely would have been a top 10 lock and a candidate for the top 5 and probably the first pass rusher off the board. At the same time, you can’t blame him for coming out and striking when the iron was hot since he’s a 1st round pick lock. His family is also having financial troubles, another reason for declaring early.

As a pass rusher, the only thing you can knock is his one year of experience because he’s the real deal in that regard of the game. In the NFL today, that’s extremely valuable. All Aldon Smith did was rush the passer as a rookie, but he still proved to be well worth a top 10 pick and may have even exceeded his draft pick with 14 sacks as a rookie, even though he was only a part time player.

Against the run, he’s only average. He has adequate size at 6-4 261 to stay as a 4-3 down lineman at the next level, but he needs to become stronger at the point of attack. He did put up 27 reps of 225 pounds at The Combine so the weight room strength is there. He’ll just need to translate that to the field, which I think he can do.

Remember, because he’s only a one year starter, he’s still incredibly raw and only scratching the surface of his potential. Aldon Smith was the same way last season and he still has a bright future as he’s expected to be a full time player in 2012. Mercilus has the same tremendous work ethic and motor as Smith so I love his chances to become that complete player.

He played hurt this season (something Smith did in 2010), playing through a finger injury. He also never takes a play off and did a great job to exceed where he was recruited and move up the depth chart to lead college football in sacks. And, given, his family’s financial situation (as the son of Haitian immigrants), he comes from humble beginnings in more ways than one. I think in a few years we’ll look back and wonder why he wasn’t drafted higher, in the top 10.

I think his draft stock starts at 18 to San Diego. Both of the top 2 pass rushers (Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples) should be off the board by that point, but from 18 to 31, there are a good amount of teams that need pass rushers. San Diego at 18, Chicago at 19, Tennessee at 20, Detroit at 23, Houston at 26, Green Bay at 28, New England at 27 and 21, and Baltimore at 29 are all options for him. He, McClellin, Jones, Upshaw, Perry, could all go in that range, it’s just about the fit. Chicago at 19 is known to be interested in the local kid. That’s where I have him going in my mock draft.

 

West Virginia/Rutgers

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Spolight #1: Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu

Spotlight #2: Rutgers DE Manny Abreu 

1st quarter

7:04: Manny Abreu blocked off the play by Don Barclay when run at. He’s been a non factor early in this game. He hasn’t done anything against either tackle, especially not Don Barclay, a projected late round pick.

6:14: Abreu can’t disengage on an outside run to his side. Touchdown.

5:53: Sanu targeted, but an inaccurate pass behind him against the blitz.

5:48: Keith Tandy with a great coverage and a pass deflection. He wasn’t matched up with Sanu, but a nice play to almost get a pick.

4:43: Abreu with a fumble recovery on a blitz. The quarterback wasn’t even pressured. He just dropped the ball and Abreu, who had been blocked well, got to the right place at the right time for the recovery.

3:32: Sanu catches one short over the middle, covered by Tandy. Tandy with a terrible tackle, doesn’t wrap up Sanu, tackle broken easily be the 6-3 220 Sanu, who runs into the end zone for a touchdown.

2:47: Tandy learned from his mistake. Nice wrap up on the fullback out of the backfield.

1:41: Keith Tandy not covering Sanu, but still allows a 45 yard touchdown downfield. This was a 45 yard touchdown without much YAC. Not very good coverage, though it was a perfect throw by the quarterback.

2nd quarter

14:26: Abreu hasn’t been too impressive, but another Rutgers defensive lineman, 6-2 275 defensive tackle Justin Francis, has made a few plays tonight. Here he gets a tackle for loss. He could get drafted late as a left end. He has 48 tackles, 7 for loss, and 4 sacks on the year coming into this game, in 7 games.

11:30: Julian Miller with a fumble recovery for West Virginia.

10:54: Sanu targeted deep, very underthrown and very well coverage, but he doesn’t even make an effort to come back to the ball.

9:07: Abreu has his spin move stood up. He’s not having a very good game.

2:53: Tandy is the last man to beat on a long touchdown run, but he can’t get off a very good block. Touchdown, the 3rd allowed touchdown that Tandy has been a part of tonight.

0:50: Abreu with a quarterback pressure.

0:23: Justin Francis in on another tackle for loss.

0:16: Abreu finishes a guy off on a tackle for loss. Not going to be credited to him in the stat sheet.

 

3rd quarter

14:16: Sanu targeted deep against a safety on a cornerback blitz. He runs a poor route here. Had he just keep going straight, he would have been wide open, but he tried a double move with the safety far off of him, allowing him to catch up and cover him well for an incomplete, though there could have been PI on this one.

6:34: Sanu is covered well short, but it doesn’t matter. Nice hands to catch it with a guy blanketed on him and then he shows nice, physical moves to take it for 16 with a lot of yards after catch.

5:22: Sanu targeted on the sideline against tight double coverage deep. Picked. Sanu could have done more to break up the interception, but he was tight coverage and it wasn’t the best throw.

1:10: Sanu tries to make a tough catch, but can’t. Off his hands. This is one a player of his caliber should have made.

0:20: Abreu run at, nothing happening, one of his best plays of the night.

4th quarter

11:08: Tandy with a pass deflection and almost a pick.

5:43: Abreu pancaked on outside containment, allows a big run.

4:14: Sanu with a short catch.

3:59: Tandy with his 3rd deflection/near pick of the night.

3:53: With Rutgers trailing by multiple scores for the first time tonight, we finally get to see what this West Virginia pass rush can do. Bruce Irvin getting consistent pressure, as is sophomore defensive end Will Clarke. Julian Miller is on the bench.

3:32: Irvin got pressure on almost every pass play on that drive.

1:51: Sanu with his 4th catch of the game, first down, gets out of bounds as Rutgers is trailing.

1:36: Sanu with his 2nd catch for a first down on the drive, tackled well by Tandy.

1:01: Will Clarke with a sack for West Virginia. Irvin got pressure as well.

0:00: Keith Tandy looked like a mid round prospect coming into this game and I was looking forward to the matchup between him and Mohamed Sanu, a rising prospect who is having an awesome year and a potential late first round pick. The 6-3 220 Sanu has 65 catches for 683 yards and 6 touchdowns in 7 games coming in. Unfortunately, the two didn’t match up very often.

One play where they did, Sanu caught the ball short over the middle and Tandy whiffed on a tackle, allowing a touchdown. Tandy was involved on two other touchdowns allowed. He surrendered a 47 yarder through the air and failed as the last man to beat on a long touchdown run.

On the flip side, Tandy also had 3 pass break ups and could have had several picks. After that first touchdown allowed, he did tackle better for the rest of the night, even though he couldn’t get off a block on that long touchdown run. Aside from the two touchdowns allowed, he didn’t only allowed one more catch and that was a catch that he kept in front of him late with a lead. Tandy looks like a mid rounder. On the season, he has 45 tackles, 2 for loss, 3 picks, and 9 pass breakups.

Sanu didn’t have his most dominant game, but he did lead Rutgers receivers with 5 catches for 48 yards and a score even though his quarterback was inconsistent at best going 18 of 46 for 235 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He also flashed a lot of physicality. He is 6-3 220 and plays bigger than that. He is very tough to bring down in the open field and a good run blocker with a feisty motor. He also has big, strong hands and is a natural pass catcher.

However, he did have a few mental lapses. He dropped a pass, blew a chance at a long reception with a poor route run. He also failed to come back for a very underthrown ball deep and didn’t do enough to break up an interception thrown at him. I’ll need to see more of him, but even with all of his physical gifts, he looks like an early 2nd rounder rather than a late 1st rounder to me.

Another guy matchup I was intrigued to watch was Rutgers’ Manny Abreu against West Virginia’s Don Barclay. Barclay dominated that one, but it’s hard to give him a stock up for it. Abreu struggled matched up with either tackle, the left tackle Barclay or the right tackle. Abreu doesn’t look draftable at this point. He had a few nice plays, but really struggled to get consistent pressure and looked very bad against the run. Meanwhile, Don Barclay looks like a late rounder. I don’t know if he has the athleticism to be anything other than a right tackle at the next level.

Another Rutgers defensive lineman did stand out and that was 6-2 275 pound Justin Francis, a defensive tackle. He had 2 tackles for loss to give him 9 tackles for loss and 4 sacks on the year. He’ll have to move to left end or possible 3-4 defensive end at the next level, but he has some promise and looks like someone who is deserving of a late round flier. He’ll be spotlighted at a later date.

West Virginia is known for its pass rush and it really flashed late when Rutgers was trailing by multiple scores for the first time all game. Bruce Irvin is the leader. At 6-3 245 pound defensive end is very undersized, but he also is a very good pass rusher. He had 14 sacks last season. He is disappointing this season with just 2.5 sacks and 7 tackles for loss, but he looked very good late in this game, getting pressure on almost every play. However, it wasn’t the toughest matchup and he’s really disappointed this season as a pass rusher, while remaining weak against the run. Unless he gets things together, he might fall out of day 2 entirely.

Another defensive end for West Virginia with slipping stock is Julian Miller. Miller came into the season as a potential day 2 pick, but he is losing a lot of playing time to sophomore defensive end Will Clarke. Clarke had a sack today and was in exclusively on those last 2 drives with West Virginia winning. Miller didn’t see the field. He did have a fumble recovery, but he’s having a bad year. He had 9 sacks and 14 tackles for loss last season, but this year the 6-4 260 pound end has just 2 sacks and 3 tackles for loss. Someone might still draft him late.

 

West Virginia/Pittsburgh

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Spotlight #1: West Virginia CB Keith Tandy

Spotlight #2: West Virginia OT Don Barclay 

1st quarter

9:01: Don Barclay with a false start.

8:23: Barclay having trouble with Lindsey’s speed early, Lindsey with a quarterback pressure here.

7:31: Barclay really doesn’t look athletic. Lindsey blew right past him here. Geno Smith got it out quick, however.

2:59: Tandy with a tackle far from the line of scrimmage after a dump off is taken out of the tackle.

2:14: Keith Tandy run over on a touchdown run.

2nd quarter

2:48: Barclay beaten easily with a spin move. He’s having a lot of trouble with Brandon Lindsey, a very quick and athletic end who could go in day 2 or early day 3.

0:05: Brandon Lindsey beats Barclay for a sack. Barclay is having an awful day, as is the entirety of this West Virginia line. West Virginia’s offense has been so stagnant tonight because Geno Smith has been under pressure all night.

 

3rd quarter

14:50: Tandy on a combined tackle for a gain of 2, good instincts to come up and play the run.

13:57: Tandy in on a similar tackle near the line, gain of 3 or 4.

11:33: Tandy thrown on, inaccurate and incomplete.

5:46: Brandon Lindsey in on another sack, this time a combined sack, beating Barclay.

2:34: Julian Miller on a sack, almost a safety. Miller hasn’t been an every down end this year, but he could still get drafted late. He looked good part. His bookend Bruce Irvin also got pressure on the play.

1:37: Barclay with a pancake block.

0:57: Barclay overpowers Lindsey on a run play, pushes him off the line for a long way, plowing open a sizable hole.

4th quarter

3:47: Julian Miller having a good game here, which will help him get drafted. He gets a tackle for a loss or at worst no gain here on a designed quarterback run. He also has a sack and a few other nice plays, especially against the run.

3:05: Bruce Irvin with a combined sack with sophomore defensive end Will Clarke. This is West Virginia’s 6th sack of the night.

1:52: Julian Miller with another sack. His stock is on the rise.

0:00: The strength of West Virginia’s defense is it’s pass defense, with a strong pass rush led by seniors Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller, as well as a few rotational underclassmen, as well as one of the better cornerbacks in the country, Keith Tandy. Pittsburgh seemed to know this and decided to run a very conservative offense, running 58 times to 23 passes, although a whopping 10 sacks (more on those later), skewed those numbers a bit. Pittsburgh did this despite missing their two top running backs. Ray Graham was already out for the season and his replacement, senior Zach Brown, went down in this game.

Pittsburgh’s quarterback Tino Sunseri played very poorly, going 12 of 23 for 131 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick. He took 10 sacks and a good amount of those were on him holding the ball too long. Forcing Sunseri hold the ball too long was West Virginia cornerback Keith Tandy. Tandy had an excellent game as none of Sunseri’s 12 completions were completed against him. He played well in coverage all game.

Against the run was a bit of a different story. Tandy did have 5 tackles, but he was run over for a rushing touchdown. The 5-10 200 cornerback should be better against the run considering his size, and he looks like a physical imposing cornerback, but missed tackles seem to be a trend for him. He missed a couple against West Virginia, including one on Mohamed Sanu’s touchdown reception. There’s definitely a lot to work with with Tandy and I think he looks like a 3rd or 4th rounder, but he’s not a complete prospect yet.

Back to West Virginia’s 10 sacks, yes poor pocket presence and good coverage helped, but those 10 sacks really showed West Virginia’s awesome ability to get to the passer. Bruce Irvin had 1.5 sacks and 1.5 tackles for loss. Julian Miller, who isn’t even an every down end anymore, had 4 sacks and 4 tackles for loss.

Miller has good size at 6-3 265 and had 9 sacks and 14 tackles for loss last season, but he hasn’t been an every down end anymore this season, which is obviously hurting his stock. This 4 sack game obviously will give his stock new life as he tries to get drafted. He still looks like a day 3 prospect, but could get drafted towards the top of day 3, rounds 4 or 5, after this game.

Bruce Irvin had 1.5 sacks to give him 7 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss on the season. He has 4.5 sacks in his last 3 games, which is helping his stock. He had a huge season last year with 14 sacks and 14 tackles for loss, but his size at 6-3 245 will hurt him. He struggled against the run in this one as well, part of the reason that Pittsburgh ran the ball as much as they did. Pittsburgh’s 3rd string tailback rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Irvin looks like a day 2 prospect as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but I still have about a borderline 3rd/4th round grade on him.

Pittsburgh has a great pass rusher as well, defensive end Brandon Lindsey. Lindsey was matched up with West Virginia’s Don Barclay, their 6-4 310 left tackle, for most of the game. Barclay is having a strong senior season, including a game in which he held Vinny Curry, one of the nation’s leaders in sacks, without a sack. However, Lindsey got the best of him for almost the entirety of the game. Lindsey got consistent pressure. Lindsey had 2 sacks and a 2 tackles for loss in this one, giving him 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss on the season.

Lindsey struggled earlier this season against two of the better offensive tackles in the country, Iowa’s Riley Reiff and Connecticut’s Mike Ryan, so having a good game against Barclay will help his stock. Lindsey looked like a potential 2nd round pick coming into the season after 10 sacks and 18 tackles for loss last season, but he had been struggling a bit this season. This game could help him get drafted in the 3rd round, but he might still fall into the 4th round. The 6-2 250 pound Lindsey is a bit small and weak against the run and probably will have to move to 3-4 outside linebacker at the next level.

As for Barclay, this game won’t help his stock. He really didn’t look athletic at all and at best he’s a right tackle at the next level. He looks like a mid to late day 3 prospect. Barclay was decent run blocking against Lindsey, who isn’t great against the run, but he should have been better considering his strength is run blocking and Lindsey’s weakness is the run. West Virginia was still in single digits in rushing yards at the half, though part of that can be chalked up to poor running. Barclay was better in the 2nd half, generally overpowering Lindsey against the run, as West Virginia finished with 113 yards. Still, he didn’t play that well against the run and those 2 sacks allowed will hurt, as will his consistent giving up pressure.

 

West Virginia/Marshall

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spotlight #1: Marshall DE Vinny Curry

Spotlight #2: West Virginia DE Bruce Irvin 

1st quarter

9:30: Vinny Curry doesn’t quite get to the quarterback, but he gets free and hits the quarterback as he throws. Pass still completed, however.

8:41: Curry runs down a running back from behind.

3:39: Bruce Irvin with the tackle. They ran at his side and he made them pay.

3:02: Nice first step by Irvin, but immediately gobbled up by the offensive lineman once contact was engaged. Needs to get bigger.

1:58: Curry pushed back big time by the offensive lineman, but able to recover to make the tackle.

2nd quarter

11:48: Irvin back into the backfield again with a great quarterback pressure.

11:23: Excellent instincts by Curry on a flea flicker to help Marshall bust up the play.

7:56: Curry on the run stop. Marshall’s defensive line, Curry included, has been surprisingly good against the run.

5:25: Pressure by Curry, but it’s for naught as West Virginia’s Geno Smith releases it just in time for the touchdown. Marshall’s front 4 has played very well as Curry has drawn double teams often and even made some plays of his own, but Geno Smith’s pocket presence and mobility has just been too much for them so far. I doubt he comes out this year because he figures to be a mid to late rounder, but he’s someone to watch into the future.

5:13: Irvin so quick off the snap, blows past his man for the quarterback pressure.

3rd quarter

4:59: Junior kick returner Tavon Austin brings one back to the house. He’s undersized, but with 2 career kick return TDs, he’s someone to watch in 2012, his senior year.

Game suspended for over an hour because of thunder. Waited and waited for game to come back, gave up, left, came back, game was over.

However, in summary I was more impressed with Curry. Curry faced a tougher offensive line and got into the backfield more. He also held up a little better against the run and had a nice chase down from behind of a running back. Both are weak against the run, but Curry is the better of the two. Irvin is unbelievably quick off the snap, but he’ll get eaten up on first contact by an offensive lineman. Basically, if he can’t blow past someone, he’s screwed. Guys like that never do well in the NFL. Look at Aaron Maybin.

 

Week 9 UFB Rankings

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers  (8)  7 – 0   next at San Diego Chargers

Only undefeated team in the NFL is coming off a bye and should be ready for San Diego Chargers this week. Chargers have extra chips on their shoulders after the horrifying loss against the Kansas City Chiefs but Packers might be too much for them. As long as Aaron Rodgers stay upright, this team has chance to go 16-0.

(5)  2. Pittsburgh Steelers  5 – 2   next vs Baltimore Ravens

Steelers starting to look pretty good.  Big win over the Pats, but can they stay on top with all the injuries at LB?  With another big test this week, they have a chance to return the favor to the Ravens and beat them like they got beat in week 1.  Look for the Steelers to show no mercy!

(4)  3. San Francisco 49ers  6 – 1   next at Washington Redskins

What this team has done is nothing short of a miracle. However, we don’t believe they are an elite team. If they can win against the Ravens and Steelers, this team should be a true contender. The stingy defense with adequate offense can carry you only so far in today’s league where no lead is safe. The 49ers should make playoff, might even clinch the playoff spot first this season.

(3)  4. New England Patriots  5 – 2   next vs New York Giants

I don’t know who is next on the schedule for Brady and company but I’m gonna assume they are gonna inherit a really pissed off Tom Brady…Oh wait, its the Giants!  As in rematch of the Super Bowl a few years ago Giants!   Good Luck with that New York…

(2)  New Orleans Saints  5 – 3   next vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How do the Saints go from slaughtering one winless team by 55 to losing to another by 10? Makes no sense.  This team needs home-field in the playoffs. They are a completely different team on the road.  With that said, watch for Brees and Company to step it up!

(7)  6. Detroit Lions  6 – 2   next bye

They absolutely destroyed the Broncos’ last week. we don’t even know how the Broncos managed to score 10 points between Lions’ fierce pass-rush and Tim Tebow’s incompetency. The offense looked great but running game is still a concern as they only managed 4.0 yards per carry against the possibly worst defense in the league. They have a bye week and a big game against Bears in Chicago a week after.

(6)  7. Baltimore Ravens  5 – 2  next at Pittsburgh Steelers

This team is extremely inconsistent, which is hard to understand when you think about the locker room leadership it has. The Ravens better bring their best game or will be trashed at Pittsburgh, where Steelers are looking to return a favor from week 1. With Bengals playing great, the Ravens might become the third best team in AFC North.

 

(13)  8. Buffalo Bills  5 – 2  next vs New York Jets

Wow, another surprise here,  4-0 at home!  Very impressive Buffalo, very impressive. Wanna know something more impressive? Buffalo’s offense has outscored the Patriots offense by 9 points so far this season.  Dominant performance against the Skins last week. Big divisional matchup with the Jets Sunday!!! 

(9)  9. New York Giants  5 – 2   next at New England Patriots

That was quite a scare versus a winless Miami team at home.  Sorry, but the Giants look like the worst 5-2 team we have seen in a while…Lots of problems with the Patriots on the way. 

(10)  10. New York Jets  4 – 3   next at Buffalo Bills

What kind of team will emerge after the bye?  Can the Jets deliver a big blow to the Bills this Sunday?  With the chance to slip into second place and the universe to going back to feeling right, Rex Ryan and the J-E-T-S go into Buffalo to start making a guarantee look more like a reality.

(12)  11. Houston Texans  5 – 3   next vs Cleveland Browns

We really like how poised and resilient they look even after they lost two super stars (Mario Williams and Andre Johnson). They have beaten teams they should beat last two weeks (Titans and Jaguars) and have very manageable schedule for the rest of the season. With AFC South all but stable, Texans should easily win the division.

(NR)  12. Philadelphia Eagles 3 – 4   next vs Chicago Bears ( Monday Night)

Dominated the Cowboys. Starting to look like a Dream Team.  They treated their fans to a jump back into contention.  We have no doubts in saying, this team looks like they still can win the NFC East.  This week against the Bears will give us an idea if they are serious about taking the division or not.

(11)  13. Atlanta Falcons  4 – 3   next at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, this team is back and fresh after a bye, look for a strong surge outta Matty Ice and a heavy dose of Burner Turner as they wanna get a jump on Indy then look forward to the big match up with New Orleans next week.

(15)  14. Cincinnati Bengals  5 – 2   next at Tennessee Titans

This Bengals team is nothing like old teams I have seen for last few years. Everyone is dedicated to the football and there is no diva in that locker room.  Andy Dalton and A.J Green will be the cornerstone this franchise for a long time. They still have to face the Steelers and the Ravens twice but the Bengals have a good chance to make playoff.

(NR)  15. Chicago Bears 4 – 3   next at Philadelphia Eagles

With a chance to pull within one game of Detroit this week, they have a BIG test at Philly on Monday Night.  Matt Forte is having the best year of his career and the production of the offense depends on him.  We wonder if what’s happening with Chris Johnson in Tennessee is what is holding the Bears up from paying big money to Matt Forte?  All we know is, you better pay the man because there are alot of teams that will!!!

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

 Clayton Terry of The Fan Experience

David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Week 9 Preview

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

10/27/11 8 PM ET

Virginia at Miami

DE Cam Johnson (Virginia) #56

The 6-4 270 end projects to be a left end at the next level as he’s better against the run than as a pass rusher. In 6 games, he had 17 tackles, 5.5 for a loss, and 2 sacks. He could end up a 2nd day pick.

S Ray-Ray Armstrong (Miami) #26

Armstrong, a potential 2nd round pick at safety, missed the first 4 games of the season with a stupid suspension, but returned 3 weeks ago against Virginia Tech to record 7 tackles. In 3 games, he has 17 tackles and is back into the starting lineup for this game. In 2010, he had 79 tackles, 4.5 for a loss, 3 picks, and 3 deflections. The big 6-4 220 safety is very fast for his size and could challenge Markelle Martin to be the top safety in this class with Robert Lester and TJ McDonald struggling so far this season. Mark Barron is also in the mix.

10/22/11 12 PM ET (ESPN3 Replay)

North Carolina at Clemson

DT Brandon Thompson (Clemson) #98

Not a big stat guy, but a stud against the run at 6-2 310 and frequently takes on multiple blockers, playing a 2 gap 4-3 nose tackle type position, freeing things up for Clemson’s Andre Branch, an elite pass rusher. He did the same thing for Da’Quan Bowers last year. This year, Thompson has 27 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and .5 sacks.

TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) #83

Allen could be the first tight end off the board in this weak tight end class. He has 27 catches for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in 6 games this season and has been on fire in his past 5, with 29 catches for 312 yards and 3 scores in his past 4, all against tough competition, Auburn, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. His suspect blocking could hurt his stock, but the 6-4 255 tight end has the size to become a better blocker. He’s also got great speed and great hands and is 2nd on the team behind stud freshman wide receiver Sammy Watkins in receiving yards. 

10/29/11 12 PM ET

Michigan State at Nebraska

CB Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) #15

Dennard came into the year as a first round pick at cornerback, but injuries have hurt him and he’s been exposed without Prince Amukamara opposite him. He’s slipping right now and could end up in the 2nd round or later unless he can have a good game against a pair of potential day 2 picks, wide receiver BJ Cunningham and Quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing to him.

S Trenton Robinson (Michigan State) #39

Robinson had 76 tackles and 4 picks in 2010 and now has 31 tackles, 2 picks, a tackle for loss, a sack and a pass deflection in 7 games this season. In a weak safety class, he could end up in day 2.

 

10/29/11 3:30 PM ET

West Virginia at Rutgers

WR Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) #6

The 6-3 215 pound Sanu took over where Kenny Britt left off after Britt went in the first round to the Titans in 2009. Sanu caught 51 passes for 639 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2009 as a freshman. Poor quarterback play in 2010 limited him to 44 catches for 418 yards and 2 scores, but he’s taken his game to a whole different level this year with 65 catches for 683 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 7 games even though his quarterback play still hasn’t been good. He could end up a first round pick like Britt before him. He’ll be matched up with Keith Tandy, a potential mid round pick, in this one.

DE Manny Abreu (Rutgers) #51

Abreu plays end and outside linebacker for Rutgers and at 6-3 260, he looks like a prototypical 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker. In 7 games this season, he has 17 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks.

10/29/11 8 PM ET

Stanford at USC

OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) #55

The #2 offensive tackle in this class, behind Matt Kalil, Martin is part of an excellent offensive line that has done a great job protecting Andrew Luck. Even more impressive, Martin has helped keep Andrew Luck protected this year despite the fact that Stanford lost 3 starting offensive linemen in the offseason, including an All-American center. He looks like a top 10 pick.

RB Marc Tyler (USC) #26

After getting suspended one game for saying stupid shit on TMZ about USC players getting paid (even though they do), Tyler has rushed for 435 yards and 2 touchdowns on 96 carries in 6 games. The 5-11 235 pound power back had 913 yards and 9 touchdowns on 171 carries in 2010.

ESPN3 Replays

10/29/11 12 PM ET

NC State at Florida State

MLB Audie Cole (NC State) #42

In 7 games, the 6-4 240 pound linebacker has 59 tackles, 7.5 for loss and 2.5 sacks after 86 tackles, 10 for loss, and 5 sacks in 2010. He projects as a mid round pick who could go in the 3rd round as a day 2 pick.

TE George Bryan (NC State) #84

At 6-5 265, he more of a blocker than a receiver, but he can catch the ball. He had 40 catches in 2009 and 35 catches in 2009. This year, he has 10 in 6 games for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. With all of the two tight end sets in the NFL, Bryan could be a mid round pick because of his blocking and his ability to catch passes.

10/29/11 3:30 PM ET

Illinois at Penn State

DE Whitney Mercilus (Illinois) #85

Where did this guy come from? A relative unknown coming into this season, Mercilus has 38 tackles, 15 for a loss, and 10 sacks in 8 games this year. At 6-3 260, he has prototypical 4-3 end size and could end up in the first half of the first round if he keeps this up, even though he is a one year wonder. There’s always a possibility the junior returns for his senior season in 2012.

WR AJ Jenkins (Illinois) #8

Another breakout star for Illinois, the 6-1 190 Jenkins has become one of the best receivers in college football this season. In 8 games, he has 62 catches for 987 yards and 7 touchdowns after just 56 catches for 746 yards and 7 touchdowns last season.

 

Week 9 Power Rankings

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Power Rankings will be more detailed next week

The teams that are terrible 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-7

31. Carolina Panthers 1-6

30. Cleveland Browns 2-5

29. Dallas Cowboys 1-6

The teams that are not quite as terrible, but still pretty terrible 

28. San Francisco 49ers 2-6

27. Denver Broncos 2-6

26. Arizona Cardinals 3-4

25. Cincinnati Bengals 2-5

The team that should be a sleeper in 2011, but everyone will have them as their sleeper so much that they’ll actually become overrated

24. Detroit Lions 2-5

The teams that are in worse shape than their record would appear 

23. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4

22. Chicago Bears 4-3

The teams that have surprised

21. Oakland Raiders 4-4

20. St. Louis Rams 4-4

The team that’s best in the NFC West, but only by default

19. Seattle Seahawks 4-3

The teams in massive chaos that could still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

18. Minnesota Vikings 2-5

17. Washington Redskins 4-4

 

The teams that are in the middle of the pack 

16. Miami Dolphins 4-3

15. Houston Texans 4-3

The teams that haven’t beaten anyone, but have amazing records 

14. Kansas City Chiefs 5-2

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-2

The team poised for a 2nd half run 

12. San Diego Chargers 3-5

The team that’s overrated, but will still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

11. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3

The team that just signed Randy Moss 

10. Tennessee Titans 5-3

The teams that can beat anyone on any given Sunday, but often don’t 

9. New York Giants 5-2

8. Baltimore Ravens 5-2

7. New Orleans Saints 5-3

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3

The teams that are great, but not elite 

5. New York Jets 5-2

4. Atlanta Falcons 5-2

The elite runner ups 

3. Indianapolis Colts 5-2

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2

The favorite 

1. New England Patriots 6-1

 

Week 9 Pickups

stevenlourie Uncategorized

RB LeGarrette Blount- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.5%

For the 2nd straight week, Blount was Tampa’s lead back. He rushed for 120 yards on 22 carries and 2 scores and actually added 2 catches, something he was notoriously bad at in college.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 30.0%

Bess has 39 catches for 401 yards and 3 scores this season and this week was his first as a starter. He certainly didn’t do anything to lose him his starting job, catching 7 balls for 53 yards. He’s a starter in PPR leagues and should be owned universally.

QB Josh Freeman- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.7%

Freeman is looking like a legit QB1 this season or at least a strong backup. In 7 games, he’s 135 for 224 for 1533 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 picks. He should be owned pretty universally.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 29.2%

I’m buying the hype. This kid looks like the real deal. He was 26 for 45 for 212 yards and 4 scores to only 1 pick in his first week back. He’s still not a regular starter until he shows consistency, but he’s an excellent backup with huge upside for the rest of the season.

 

TE Jacob Tamme- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.2%

After Dallas Clark went down, everyone’s question was, which Indy tight end would Peyton Manning turn into a fantasy monster. That question was answered, Jacob Tamme, who caught 6 balls for 64 yards and a touchdown in the Colts first game since they put Clark on IR.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.1%

He didn’t lead the team in yards this week, but he did get his first career touchdown, a good sign. In 7 games with David Garrard (excluding that Todd Bouman game) he has 33 catches for 387 yards and a score. He’s more valuable in PPR, but he’s still worth a look in deep regular leagues.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.4%

Hart rushed for 84 yards on 12 carries splitting carries with Donald Brown. Joseph Addai could miss a few more weeks, which means Hart could be the starter over the inept Donald Brown, who didn’t even manage 2 yards per carry this week.

WR Nate Burleson- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 27.4%

He and Stafford clicked as he caught 7 balls for 47 yards. Even with Shaun Hill in the lineup, weeks 5-6, he caught 10 passes for 116 yards in 2 games. He’s worth a look as Detroit’s #2 receiver.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.1%

The undrafted 27 yard rookie continues to be worth a look in deep leagues with 14 catches for 321 yards and a score in his last 5 weeks, including 3 catches for 92 yards this week against Detroit.

WR Anthony Gonzalez- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.0%

Gonzalez played his first full game since 2008 and caught 4 balls for 55 yards as the Colts’ slot receiver. Austin Collie is out for a few weeks so Gonzalez is going to be their #3 receiver for a few weeks. He could have some PPR value for a few weeks.

 

Week 9 Picks

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Last week overall: 8-5

Last week ATS: 8-5 (+170/+5%)

Overall picks: 73-44 (.624)

ATS Picks: 60-53-4 (+$1270)

Lock picks: 6-2

Upset picks: 13-14

Sports Betting FAQ 

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Spread: -9 Atlanta

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit 

Tampa Bay may have 5 wins, but none of them have come against a team with a winning record. Their combined record of the teams they’ve beaten, 12-25, 5-17 if you don’t count Arizona and St. Louis. The reason for not counting them, those wins were by a combined 4 points, could have gone either way, and plus St. Louis and Arizona have such a weak schedule that their records are thrown off as well. Their two losses were to winning teams, by a combined 50 points. Atlanta is a good team. However, that spread if huge. 9 points between two 5-2 teams. Tampa Bay isn’t some mediocre team. They’re an average at worst team. Josh Freeman and this passing game have the ability to tear apart this Atlanta secondary, they’re just very one-dimensional, lacking even an average defense, and yet without an established runner (Blount is emerging though). I think Tampa can keep this within a touchdown and score a late touchdown in a high scoring affair to win it ATS, but Atlanta’s clearly the better team, and clearly going to win (especially at home where Matt Ryan has lost one career regular season game in 3 years), so I’m not putting too much on Tampa ATS.

Chicago Bears 24 Buffalo Bills 16

Spread: -2.5 Chicago

Pick against spread: Chicago 2 units 

I don’t want to bet on either of these two teams. Buffalo is 0-7 and Chicago could be 0-7 if a few things didn’t go their way (they’re 4-3). 3 of their wins have come against teams with 4 combined wins and the other came because of 18 penalties against. Jay Cutler’s on a 3 game losing streak, during which he is 51 for 90 for 1 touchdown and 5 picks and has been sacked 19 times and suffered a concussion. Chicago should be able to tear apart Buffalo’s defense, because they can establish the run on Buffalo’s terrible run defense and because Buffalo can’t bring pressure with the pass rush, however, Mike Martz refuses to run and their line is so bad that Carolina got consistent pressure on them. I’m picking the Bears because they should win (aided by an elite defense), but this could be ugly and Buffalo could win their first game of the season here so I’m not putting a lot on it.

New England Patriots 31 Cleveland Browns 16

Spread: -4.5 New England

Pick against spread: New England 4 units 

The 6-1 Patriots are only 5 point favorites over the Browns? What? This spread is ridiculous and could also be available for only a limited time. The Patriots could very well have Randy Moss back by the end of the week, which could make the spread 6-8 points. Even if they don’t, they can destroy Cleveland. Cleveland’s pass defense is nowhere near as good as the three they’ve faced without Moss (Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota) so they can destroy them with the short gain and won’t even need the deep threat. Cleveland beat New Orleans going into their bye, which could explain to spread, but they couldn’t do that again if they tried. They needed several trick plays and pick sixes to do it. I’m still not sold on Colt McCoy as a good quarterback, as the kind who can keep up with a Tom Brady, against an improving New England defense. Say what you want about their D, it is improving and it is complex and forces turnovers. McCoy should have a few as a rookie this week.

New York Jets 23 Detroit Lions 13

Spread: -4 Jets

Pick against spread: Jets 3 units

Detroit should be able to keep this close based on the way they played last week. However, Matt Stafford has still only has 3 wins in his career, and they were against Cleveland and Washington twice. Cleveland in 2009 and Washington in 2010 were among the worst pass defenses in the league. Even with a strong pass rush helping him, I doubt Stafford can play well enough for this team to beat one of the elite defenses in the league. The Jets offensive line is also so good that they might be able to nullify the Lions pass rush, especially considering they’ll be motivated to prove themselves after getting shutout last week. Teams normally do well against the spread after being shut out and the Jets offensive front has only given up 11 sacks in 7 games.

New Orleans Saints 28 Carolina Panthers 16

Spread: -6.5 New Orleans

Pick against spread: New Orleans 2 units 

The Saints almost lost to the Panthers last time they played and they lost ATS by double digits. However, this looks like a different Saints team after they just beat the Steelers. Of course I said the same thing about them after they beat the Buccaneers and they followed that by a stink bomb at home against the Browns, but beating the Steelers by 10 is impressive and the spread in this one isn’t nearly as crazy as the two touchdown one from when these two met before. I find it hard to believe, if the Saints play well, the Panthers stay within a touchdown of them, but they have before so I’m not putting a ton on it.

 

San Diego Chargers 37 Houston Texans 19

Spread: -2.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: San Diego 5 units 

In each of the last 3 years, the Chargers have started out slow, playing well, but killing themselves with stupid mistakes. Then they’ve had a defining win and gone on a long streak, 11-2 in 2007, 4-0 in 2008, 11-0 in 2009. Once is a luck, two times is a coincidence, three times a trend, and I’m sticking with it. The first two parts of the trend happened this year. They started out 2-5 and looked great against Tennessee last week in a win. I expect them to go on a streak now, continuing with this week against Houston. Houston’s pass defense is horrible and Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I expect the Chargers to dominate like they can this week and win this one easily, especially since Houston’s Andre Johnson’s won’t be 100%. The last time he wasn’t 100%, they were destroyed by the Giants.

Baltimore Ravens 21 Miami Dolphins 19

Spread: -5 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Miami 2 units 

Well, we know the Dolphins have a good kicker. In their last 2 games, Dan Carpenter is 10 for 10 on field goals. They only have 2 offensive touchdowns in those two games, but they sure can kick. However, they do play teams close. They could have beaten the Jets and Steelers, but lost, and special teams mistakes killed them against New England. Coincidentally, those are the top 3 teams in the AFC. Baltimore’s the better team and should win, but they always do seem to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. They’ve had four wins decided by less than a touchdown and in 3 of them they lost ATS as favorites. We’ve got a team that barely beats teams they should beat by more against a team that barely loses to teams they should lose to by more and a 5 point spread, I’m going underdog.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Arizona Cardinals 18

Spread: -9.5 Minnesota  

Pick against spread: Minnesota 1 unit 

This spread seems like a little much considering how bad the Vikings have been playing lately. Plus, cutting Randy Moss has made a huge distraction in the locker room. However, I’m still taking the Vikings. The Cardinals are that bad, especially on the road, where they’ve won by 4, lost by 38, lost by 31, and lost by 12 this season. I’m not putting very much on it though because the spread is ridiculously huge.

New York Giants 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Spread: -7.5 Giants

Pick against spread: Seahawks 1 unit

The Seahawks are an amazing home team. In the past 3+ years, they are 16-11 at home. That might not sound like that good, but compared to 7-21 on the road, it’s pretty good. However, I’m picking against them even as underdogs of 6.5 points. The Seahawks will be without Russell Okung again. The Raiders had 8 sacks last week against Seattle sans Okung. They had 16 in their previous 7 games. The Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the league and have injured 5 quarterbacks this year. Hasselbeck really struggles under pressure. He’s immobile and injury prone. He went 13 for 32 last week against Oakland. He won’t have the benefit of a good run game to lean on this week either. The Giants haven’t allowed a 50 yard rusher since week 3 and rank 3rd in the league in YPC against. If Eli and the Giants can avoid making turnovers (they’re 3rd in the league in most giveaways this season), something that could be an issue in noisy Seattle, they can win this pretty easily. The only reason this is a 2 unit is because of the turnovers.

Update: Charlie Whitehurst will start for an injured Matt Hasselbeck. Whitehurst is a mobile quarterback which could easily negate the Giants pass rush, thus making him more likely to win this game than Hasselbeck. However, he’s unproven and a wildcard and by unproven I mean he’s never thrown a pass in the NFL. I’m not going to bet heavily on someone unproven like that against a good team. However, the spread is now 7.5 points. The Seahawks are an amazing home team and always seem to cover at home. They’ll be playing 110+% at home with their starting quarterback out and I think that’ll be enough to get a cover against a Giants team that is notoriously bad with turnovers.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Oakland 9 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Oakland

Pick against spread: Kansas City 2 units 

When was the last time the Raiders and Chiefs played a meaningful game as #1 and #2 in the division? I happened to thing both of these teams are overrated, but the Chiefs more so. However, I’m going with the Chiefs as underdogs to win straight up. The Raiders have a way of disappointing right when they start playing well. That could happen this week. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones also should run all over the Raiders 31st ranked run defense, meaning Cassel won’t have to do much for the billionth week in a row. That should be the only source of offense for either team in this game as both teams have better pass defenses than quarterbacks. The Raiders have the better quarterback, but he’s been terribly inconsistent this season and he’s missing his top 2 receivers.

Indianapolis Colts 41 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick, Lock Pick

Spread: -3 Philadelphia

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 6 units 

For the second straight week, my lock pick is also an upset pick. The only reason I didn’t make my upset/lock pick a 6 uniter last week was because it was a 2-5 team. Good thing I didn’t, as the Broncos couldn’t do anything in the red zone and lost. I feel a lot more confident putting 6 on the Colts and Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning has lost 3 times as an underdog in his career in games he’s finished. Granted, he’s rarely on underdog, but that’s very few times. 2 were against the Patriots in their heyday. The Eagles aren’t the Patriots in their heyday and the Colts are still the Colts in their heyday, even with all the injuries. Peyton Manning has owned the Eagles, scoring 35+ in all 3 games he’s ever played against them. Considering the Eagles are ranked 15th against the pass (despite playing Alex Smith, David Garrard, and Shaun Hill in 3 games), that could happen again. That 15th rank would also be a lot worse if they couldn’t get to the quarterback, something they’ve done 21 times this season. Peyton Manning has been sacked a league low 7 times this season, so that pass rush should be a not factor allowing Manning to destroy Philly’s secondary. Michael Vick won’t be able to pass to keep up. His two wins this season were against Detroit and Jacksonville. Indy’s 7th ranked secondary is much better than those two. He’ll be able to run and his ability to run will allowed LeSean McCoy to tear up this weak Indy ground defense, but you don’t beat Peyton Manning against a bad pass defense by running. You have to pass to win that type of game. And even if the Eagles somehow win, I get 3 points wiggle room.

Green Bay Packers 33 Dallas Cowboys 26

Spread: -9 Green Bay 

Pick against spread: Dallas 1 unit

This is a game the Cowboys can actually win. The Cowboys looked horrible last week and the Packers are coming off the biggest win of their season so they won’t be taking them seriously. This is still a talented team and Kitna is at least a decent quarterback. He threw 4 picks last week, but three were on dropped passes and he completed a high percentage of his passes, even against a large deficit. However, the Cowboys might try even less. They looked dead last week and after playing essentially being eliminated the week before after such high hopes, you can’t blame them. I’m not confident either way here, but I’m taking the Cowboys barely as they are given a big amount of points.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 12

Spread: -4.5 Pittburgh

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 3 units

The Bengals offense, regardless of what the numbers say, is not good at all. They may be middle of the pack in terms of points, but they’ve been playing a lot of catch up this season and scored a lot of points in garbage time. Also, for some reason, Carson Palmer has gotten very lucky this season. Defenders are dropping so many of his picks. He should have thrown at least 3 if not four against Miami and that’s been the case all season. Pittsburgh is great at creating turnovers and should create plenty this week. Pittsburgh will also neutralize Cedric Benson, the Bengals best offensive player. The Steelers have the league’s best run defense. Benson being unable to run will put more pressure on Palmer and that’s going to lead to picks. The only reason this is a 3 unit and not a 5 is because Cincinnati did win both matchups last season somehow. It’s pretty obvious now that last year’s squad was a fluke and Pittsburgh also is significantly better this year, but that still does scare me a bit.