WR Mike Williams- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 35.4%

No idea why he’s not universally owned. In 4 games, he has 19 catches for 238 yards and 3 scores. He’s Josh Freeman’s favorite target and since he’s a rookie, he’s only going to get better as the year goes on.

WR Danny Amendola- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.3%

Amendola had 21 catches for 208 yards as St. Louis’ #2 coming into week 5, but with Mark Clayton going down early in the game, Amendola exploded for 12 catches for 95 yards in his absence. Clayton is reportedly done for the year.

WR Deion Branch- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.3%

Branch is going back to New England. He knows their offense. He knows Tom Brady. They paid a 4th round pick for him so it seems like they really wanted him, which indicates that they plan on featuring him in their explosive offense.

WR Jabar Gaffney- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.3%

Gaffney is worth owning as the #2 receiver on one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league. He’s caught 31 balls for 337 yards and a score in 5 games.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.0%

Thomas has been the Jaguars best receiver this year catching 21 passes for 258 yards. He’s not amazing, but he’s consistent and he’s young so he has upside.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Joseph Addai and Donald Brown could both miss next week’s game against Washington. Mike Hart would be the lead back in their absence. Indy doesn’t run a ton, but Hart wouldn’t really have anyone to steal his carries and he’s a good pass catcher in Indy’s pass heavy scheme. The 3rd year former 6th round pick out of Michigan rushed 11 times for 50 yards and a score in relief of Addai week 5.

 

WR Brandon Tate- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.9%

Someone has to take over Randy Moss’ role in New England. If not Branch, then Tate, an electrifying 2009 3rd round pick out of North Carolina, seems like the favorite to do so.

WR Roy Williams- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 37.0%

He’s alive!!! Roy Williams has seemingly finally come back to life in Dallas’ offense with 15 catches for 257 yards and 3 scores in his last 3 games.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Armstrong is an undrafted rookie receiver, but he’s 27. He could leap frog Joey Galloway on the depth chart very soon and he’s a very talented receiver with 4 catches for 141 yards and a score in the last 2 weeks.

TE Benjamin Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

He has 23 catches for 230 yards and a score this year and has been Cleveland most…er only consistent target. You could do a lot worse with your tight end in a deep league.

TE Tony Moeaki- Kansas City

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.1%

In 4 games, he has 16 catches for 173 yards and 2 scores. He’s a rookie so he’ll better as the year goes on and Matt Cassel loves checking down to his tight end. Again, you could do a lot worse with your tight end in a deep league.

TE Andrew Quarless- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.0%

Really digging deep, but Quarless caught 4 passes for 51 yards after coming in for the injured Jermichael Finley and the injured Donald Lee week 5. Finley and Lee are both out for at least this week and possibly longer. Quarless is a talented tight end and should be fantasy ownable simply because he is a starter in Green Bay’s explosive offense.

 

Last week overall: 7-7

Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)

Overall picks: 44-32 (.579)

ATS Picks: 37-36-3 (+$430/+2%)

Lock picks: 4-1

Upset picks: 7-5

Sports Betting FAQ 

Seattle Seahawks 13 Chicago Bears 23 

Spread: Chicago -6.5

Pick against spread: Chicago 2 units -220

Seattle sucks on the road. They are 3-15 on the road since the start of 2008 and 6-20 since the start of 2007. Chicago is getting Jay Cutler back so they won’t have to worry about Todd Collins going 6 for 16 with 4 picks. Seattle’s defense is not as good as the Giants, especially in terms of a pass rush, so Cutler should have a good game. Matt Hasselbeck does really bad under pressure. He’s done all right this season because he’s only been sacked 9 times. The reason, they haven’t really faced a good pass rush, like the Bears possess. Julius Peppers could have a huge game here against Seattle’s mediocre line in a win.

Baltimore Ravens 21 New England Patriots 24

Spread: New England -2.5

Pick against spread: New England 1 unit +100

This one was tough. We saw how badly the Ravens beat the Patriots last year in the playoffs, but what are the chances Tom Brady throws 4 picks again. That’s the only reason Baltimore won that game and, if you remember, Baltimore actually lost to the Pats earlier last season. The Ravens destroyed the Broncos and their one dimensional offensive attack last week, but the Patriots aren’t quite as one dimensional. They can run and they also convert in the red zone much better than the Broncos do. The Patriots also haven’t lost off a bye week since 2003. In fact, they’ve only lost one game where they’ve had more than 2 weeks to prepare (season opener, coming off bye) since 2003. I’m taking the Patriots, but not putting a lot of value on it.

Detroit Lions 20 New York Giants 23

Spread: -10 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Lions 2 units +200

The Lions have covered all 4 times they have been underdogs this season and are 5-0 against the spread this season. They’re coming off a 44 point outburst, yet are unexplicably being given roughly 10 points here. The Giants are coming off two great wins, but something about this team suggests to me that they could go from good right back to bad once again. Maybe it was the fact that they failed to blowout the Bears, who played like crap offensively. Maybe it’s the fact that Eli Manning through 2 desperate picks against the Texans…when leading by 3 touchdowns. Whatever the reason, I’m not picking the Giants to cover a large spread against a team that’s 5-0 against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Philadelphia Eagles 21 Upset Pick

Spread: Philadelphia -3

Spread against spread: Atlanta 5 units -550

The Eagles can’t stop the pass. Bad news, the Falcons passing offense is the strength of their offense. The Falcons also have a surprisingly strong pass rush to get after the quarterback and the Eagles offensive line is playing like complete crap of late. The 49ers sacked Kevin Kolb 4 times. Imagine what the Falcons will do to him. I love this matchup for the Falcons here, even on the road. I have no idea why they are underdogs here. The Eagles are incredibly overrated. 

Cleveland Browns 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Spread: -14 Pittsburgh

Pick against spread: Cleveland 2 units -220

14 point spreads always make me nervous. That’s a lot to win by. The Steelers are better than the Browns by a lot, but here’s my thinking. The Steelers defense has been playing 110% with Ben out. Ben’s back now and they are playing the lowly Browns. Why would they play 100%. They could easily hold Colt McCoy and the Browns to single digits if they tried their hardest, but I don’t expect them to do so. If they give up 10+, I need to Steelers to score 24+ to win and I don’t feel comfortable picking them to do that. I’m not putting a lot on them, but I got the Browns.

Miami Dolphins 20 Green Bay Packers 27

Spread: -4 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay 1 unit -110

The line has officially been posted for this one, a -4 line favoring the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is expected to play, but he probably won’t be 100% and any wrong hits could force the Packers to pull him and put in Matt Flynn. Chad Henne has not won a game this season against a team that can either take away his run game (New York) or put points up on the board in a hurry with their passing game (New England). The Packers can do both. However, they have so many injuries on both sides of the ball and they’re really struggling right now. The line value is more than a field goal so I’m put 1 unit on the Packers in a shaky play.

San Diego Chargers 24 St. Louis Rams 21

Spread: -9 San Diego

Pick against spread: St. Louis 2 units +200

The Chargers have yet to win on the road, but this is right around the time they start playing better every year. This can also be seen as a must win game for them. If they start 2-4, their backs will be up against it with a good Denver team and a good Kansas City team in their division. I expect them to come out and play better than they normally do against inferior teams on the road, but that spread is pretty huge. I’m not going to take them to cover that spread after what I’ve seen from them this season on the road.

New Orleans Saints 36 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

Spread: -4 New Orleans

Pick against spread: New Orleans 3 units +300

I think that loss to the Cardinals was a wake up call. The Saints had been underachieving and still winning up to that point, but now they sit here at 3-2 and facing the possibility of falling to 3-3 if they lose on the road to an “inferior” Bucs team. If they fall to 3-3, Tampa will sit at 4-1 and Atlanta will sit at either 4-2 or 5-1 and both of those teams will hold tiebreakers over them. That’s not a place they want to be. I expect a much better effort out of them offensively this week and for them to convert in the red zone, something they haven’t done to this point. The Bucs will score points with Josh Freeman against this injured New Orleans defense, but not enough to win or cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -4.5 Houston

Pick against spread: Houston 5 units -550

The Chiefs defense played their hearts out against Indy, but still lost because their offense is incompetent. They won’t play nearly as well this weak against a Houston offense squad that just looked like crap last week. With a fully healthy Andre Johnson, their offense should be back to normal. The Texans defense is weak against the pass, but Matt Cassel isn’t good enough to hurt them in any significant way. Unless the Texans throw a pick six or allow a special teams turnover, they’ll cover this week.

Oakland Raiders 20 San Francisco 49ers 23

Spread: -6 49ers

Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit -110

Interesting spread. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an 0-5 team favored by 6 points before. The Raiders won’t be 100% after playing their hearts out last week, with an 0-5 team on tap so I expect the 49ers to win this game, but I’m not taking them giving up that many points to the spread. I don’t trust them to win this game by more than 6, especially if Jason Campbell plays like he did late against San Diego.

Dallas Cowboys 21 Minnesota Vikings 28 

Spread: -1.5 Minnesota

Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units +200

This game is basically a playoff game. If you lose, you go home basically. Neither of these teams are going to be able to come back from 1-4. However, you win and you’re right there at 2-3 and a 9-7/10-6 season isn’t that far out of reach. Who do you trust more in a playoff game? Brett Favre? Or Tony Romo? I’m going with the elder of the two, at home, a place where Favre is 10-1 since joining the team before last year. Yeah, they are 1-1 there this year, but they are a better team now with Randy Moss and having had their bye than the one that lost at home earlier this year. I expect them to beat the Cowboys in Minnesota and eliminate them the way they eliminated them in Minnesota last January.

New York Jets 31 Denver Broncos 19 

Spread: -3 NY Jets

Pick against spread: NY Jets 4 units +400

The Broncos lost last week because Baltimore’s defense is too good for one dimensional teams. They will lose the same way this week and for the same reason. This should be an easy cover for the Jets even on the road in Denver, a tough place to win.

Indianapolis Colts 37 Washington Redskins 21 Lock Pick

Spread: -3 Indianapolis

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 5 units -50

It’s crazy how out of favor the Colts have fallen this season. Easy money. All Peyton Manning has to do is outscore the Redskins by 3 and the Redskins can’t stop anyone through the air. I’m going to take the Colts every week until people remember who their quarterback is and start giving them some repsect again.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Tennessee

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 3 units -330

The Titans are 0-2 this year coming off a win. The home team is 8-3 against the spread on Sunday and Monday night this season. The Jaguars are 6-1 against AFC North opponents since the start of last season. The Jaguars haven’t had a home Monday night game in what seems like forever. They play well when they’re fired up and on Monday Night Football against a division opponent, they’ll be fired up plenty against a Titans team that can’t win 2 in a row.

RB Ray Rice- Baltimore

Missed some practice time this week, but as has been the case for the past two weeks, Rice will play through an injured knee. Rice rushed for 133 yards last week against Denver and it’s not like New England’s run defense is any better than Denver’s. In fact, it might be worse. You’re going to want him in your lineup.

QB Jay Cutler- Chicago

Cleared to play and good to go.

RB Peyton Hillis- Cleveland

Didn’t practice until Friday this week, but his coach maintains that he will play through a quad injury. However, that quad injury limited him to 28 yards on 10 carries last week and he does face Pittsburgh this year, who held Chris Johnson and Michael Turner under 50 yards this season. Also, the Browns acquired Mike Bell this week, a sign that they could be using him to spell Hillis from time to time and cut into his carries. I’d look at other options this week.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

He has practiced this week for the first time since injuring his shoulder week one and the results have been surprisingly positive. The Lions have yet to name a starter, but if you own Stafford, don’t get too excited. I doubt Stafford plays this week, with a bye week coming next week. The Lions are 1-4 and going nowhere fast so I doubt they’ll rush him back this week when they can just start him 100% week 8 after the bye.

WR Calvin Johnson- Detroit

Practiced a little this week and is still listed as a game time decision, but I’d say it is more likely than not that he sits. Check back tomorrow or follow me on twitter, but you probably want to have other options. Even if he does play, he could be severely limited.

QB Aaron Rodgers- Green Bay

He has yet to be officially cleared, but it looks like he will play against Miami this week. Have him in  your lineup.

TE Jermichael Finley- Green Bay

Out.

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay 

Pulled a quad at practice on Friday, but is still expected to play.

WR Andre Johnson- Houston

He took it light in practice this week in attempt to once again play this week through an ankle injury. He should be closer to 100% than he was last week, when he caught 5 passes for 95 yards.

WR Jacoby Jones- Houston

Practiced Friday and is expected to play, but didn’t practice before Friday and is still listed as questionable. I wouldn’t start him this week. He’s not a fantasy stud and there’s a chance that he doesn’t even play or is limited behind Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter on the depth chart.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

He’ll play through his hamstring and knee problems, but as I say every week, wait until he produces before starting him. Last week he caught a season high 3 passes for a season high 45 yards and hasn’t scored all year.

RB Joseph Addai- Indianapolis

After missing practice earlier this week, Addai practiced Friday fully and without problems with a neck injury, but is still listed as questionable. I’m going to say game time decision with him, which could be risky as he doesn’t kick off until 8:20. He also only has 278 yards through 5 games, so I’d look at other options this week to be on the safe side.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

Has a hip problem but still could play and even start if Addai doesn’t start. However, because of that 8:20 kickoff and the fact that they never run the ball well anyway, I’d avoid the Indy backfield for this week.

WR Pierre Garcon- Indianapolis

Missed practice time with his hammy problem, but like last week, he should play through it.

 

RB Maurice Jones Drew- Jacksonville

He has a swollen hand, but after practicing Friday, they’re calling him probable so I’d feel safe starting him even though he doesn’t kick off until Monday Night.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

Favre missing a game? I’ll believe it when I see it. However, his shaky play this season and his elbow problem don’t instill a lot of confidence in him for me as a potential starter this week. However, if you’ve been rolling with him as your guy this year, feel free to do it again this week. Dallas’ defense is playing like crap this season.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe- Minnesota

Limited Wednesday and Thursday, but practiced Friday and is expected to play.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

Out. 

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Out.

RB Reggie Bush- New Orleans

Out.

WR Marques Colston- New Orleans

Practiced all week and should be fine.

RB Darren McFadden- Oakland

He’s a game time decision with a hamstring problem, but with the way Michael Bush ran last week, it’s easy for Tom Cable to give Bush some of McFadden’s carries even if he does play. I’d look at other options this week. I’d also only start Bush if McFadden is out. They could very easily cancel each other out.

QB Michael Vick- Philadelphia

He won’t start, but he may be in uniform this week so he could play if something happens to Kolb. Don’t bet on it though.

TE Brent Celek- Philadelphia

Practiced all week and with his BFFL Kevin Kolb at QB, he should have another big week. 

WR Legedu Naanee- San Diego

Expected to be out with a hamstring problem.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

Once again will play through knee problems.

RB Chris Johnson- Tennessee

Was given an off day Thursday with a quad problem, but he’s going to play Monday Night.

QB Donovan McNabb- Washington

Listed as questionable with a hamstring problem, but practiced all week. Mike Shanahan just loves the questionable label.

 

 

RB Jackie Battle (Kansas City)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster haven’t fared that well this season running the ball so Todd Haley decided to give career backup Jackie Battle a shot. He turned 19 carries into 119 yards and also caught 2 balls for an addition 21 yards. If Haley is smart (questionable), Battle will be the lead back the rest of the way.

RB Bernard Scott (Cincinnati)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.4%

At some point Cedric Benson is going to start his suspension. It might be this week against Indianapolis. Bernard Scott will be the lead back in his absence, 3 games. He’s worth a pickup for that reason. You’ll be able to drop him once Benson returns.

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.4%

For the first few weeks of the season, it was flavor of the week at wide receiver for Oakland, Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, Derek Hagan all had big games. However, Heyward-Bey has had 2 straight strong weeks now with 7 catches for 99 yards and a score last week after 4 catches for 115 yards the week before. He is arguably the most immediately criticized top 10 pick of all time, but he was a borderline first round pick going into the draft so he does have talent and he appears to be breaking out in his 3^rd year, a year when a lot of young receivers break out. He’s got upside going forward as potentially Jason Campbell’s favorite target.

QB Tim Tebow (Denver)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.8%

It’s Tebow Time! We’ll presumably it is. John Fox has not officially named him the starter going forward, but he is expected to do so, otherwise he’s a moron because Tebow almost led a 16 point comeback against San Diego after he was put in during the 3^rd quarter last week. Tebow is good. He’ll put up stats for you with passing and rushing touchdowns.

RB Delone Carter (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.7%

Joseph Addai left last week with an injury (what else is new). He is expected to miss a few games. In his absence, Carter and Donald Brown split carries, but Carter led the way with 12. He only turned that into 22 yards, which is why he’s not higher on this list, but that is probably a fluke. The rookie is reportedly very talented.

 

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle) 

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.8%

The Seahawks broke the bank to get Sidney Rice, but Seattle quarterbacks seem to prefer throwing to former undrafted free agent Doug Baldwin. He has 80+ yards in 3 of 5 games this year and has scored twice. Last week he had a career high 8 catches for a career high 136 yards. He’d be higher on this list if he wasn’t so inconsistent (23 or fewer yards in his other 2 games), but he’s put together two straight good games so he’s worth mentioning.

WR Kevin Walter (Houston)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.0%

It was Kevin Walter, not Jacoby Jones, who stepped up in Andre Johnson’s absence last week, leading Houston wide receivers with 5 catches for 81 yards and a score. Johnson should miss at least another week so Walter is worth picking up.

TE Jared Cook (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.6%

In 2 games without Kenny Britt, Cook has 6 catches for 152 yards and a score. The talented 3^rd year tight end could be breaking out so he has upside moving forward.

WR Early Doucet (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.7%

Doucet caught 8 passes for 92 yards and a score last week to give him 21 catches for 309 yards and a score in 5 games this year. He doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

WR Damian Williams (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

With Kenny Britt out, there’s no true #1 receiver in Tennessee. I really liked Damian Williams coming out of USC in 2010 and he caught 6 passes for 66 yards and a score last week. There’s some upside here.

 

Week 6 Injury Report 

Week 6 Pickups 

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (8)  –  4 – 0   next at Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay’s offense is unstoppable, putting up 27 points in each game so far, while the defense has improved in every game as well.  We just want to know why Aaron Rodgers remained the starter when the score was 42-17. You can blame his second interception of the season on a tip that happened at that point.  Peyton Manning’s injury should of been a wake up call, get your second string QB as familiar as possible, you never know.

(2)  2. New Orleans Saints  3 – 1   next at Carolina Panthers

 A decent win in Jacksonville considering that the yard markers on the field were pointing the wrong way. Blaine Gabbert was confused by this, but Drew Brees, the veteran, was not.   Brees’ air attack continues to rule the day for New Orleans.  This week Brees should have another fantasy day, little struggle against a struggling Carolina defense.

(3)  3. New England Patriots (1)  –  3 – 1   next vs New York Jets

 The Patriots don’t like to lose, and seldom do so twice in a row.  It’s all about the defense for New England, their offense is dominant and cannot be stopped, but unfortunately the defense has many weak spots and is thin. They can beat any team in the league at any time, but games like Buffalo this past week can also happen.  Nice rebound against Oakland, now it’s off to play Big Mouth Rex Ryan and the New York Jets, should make for a great game.

(4)  4. Detroit Lions  4 – 0   next vs Chicago Bears (Monday Night)

Did the Cowboys choke?  Maybe, but the Lions were relentless.  With 7 more home games left, unless Stafford goes down…No way they miss the playoffs…..We have never seen a WR like Calvin Johnson, EVER!. Might be the best jump ball receiver.

(5)  5. Baltimore Ravens  3 – 1   next bye

 Outside of that weird Week 2 loss at Tennessee, the Ravens have been very impressive this season. Despite Joe Flacco’s mid-game struggles, they were dominant against the Jets.  With big home win over Jets, Ravens remain in the top 5.

(6)  6. Houston Texans  3 – 1   next vs Oakland Raiders

 The Defense (yes, capital ‘D’) returned against the Steelers.  We are finally seeing a well rounded team, a team we all knew Houston could be.  Can they keep it???  Next challenge is the surprising Oakland Raiders, will the defense stop Mc Fadden?

(10) 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  3 – 1   next at San Fransisco 49ers

 They could have lost to the Colts … but they didn’t.  Team is young and raw, but due to losses from 3 teams ahead of them last week, the Bucs move up three spots this week.  Josh Freeman is a gamer and is gonna be something big in this league.  Pretty evenly match up this week, lets see if they can handle the pressure.

 

(13) 8. San Diego Chargers  3 – 1   next at Denver Broncos

 The Chargers are fattening their record against patsies like the Dolphins.  Their wins have come against teams with a combined record of 1-11.  Sure it is a change for them to start the season off on a winning note, but it is hard to tell how good they are with such a weak schedule.

(NR) 9. Tennessee Titans  3 – 1   next at Pittsburgh Steelers

It feels odd to have the Titans ahead of both the Steelers and Jets. But, Pittsburgh is old and slow. As for New York, Tennessee has the better offense and defense (at least statistically).  Titans kept pace with Texans with win over Browns.

(12) 10. New York Giants  3 – 1   next vs Seattle Seahawks

Giants got second-straight road win by holding off Cardinals.  We might start moving these guys up. When Manning is on, they’re great. Too bad it’s one quarter of the game.  Won’t get a better look at this team due to easy opponent, but Buffalo comes to town next week.

(9)  11. Pittsburgh Steelers  2 – 2   next vs Tennessee Titans

No team is hurting more, O line is horrible. Big Ben will be on a stretcher by week 10 if this keeps up and now Mendenhall?  Defense has to be bigger then they ever have been just to stay in the hunt.  This is starting to look like the real Steelers, and it’s not a pretty picture.

(7)  12. Buffalo Bills  3 – 1   next vs Philadelphia Eagles

Ugly collapse in Cincinnati.  This is why we were one of very few power rankings that didn’t move them up inside the top 5 just because they beat New England.  Eagles looking for redemption this week, might knock Buffalo out of the top 15.

(NR) 13. Washington Redskins  3 – 1   next bye

Look who’s in first place after a month!  Shanahan has always had a decent team, always hangs around 8-8…But can never do better or worse, do you really believe this is a major playoff threat?  We don’t…

(NR) 14. San Fransisco 49ers  3 – 1   next vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 The comeback against the Eagles is the kind of game that makes a season.  Can they continue playing the way they have and still win?  We are betting not.

(8) 15. New York Jets  2 – 2   next at new England Patriots

 The Jets’ offense was abysmal against the Ravens.  They should have an easier time against a weak Patriots defense, but can an over rated defense keep up with the Brady and Welker show?  Look for the mismatches, maybe an Ochocinco kind of weekend?

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

David Calagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace

 

9/29/11 8 PM ET

South Florida at Pittsburgh

DE Brandon Lindsey (Pittsburgh) #7

One of the nation’s best pass rushers a year ago, Lindsey had 10 sacks and now is the guy at Pittsburgh with Jabaal Sheard gone. He’s only listed at 6-2 250, which means his primary position right now is going to be 3-4 rush linebacker, but if he can bulk up, he could be a fit for the 4-3. He has 3 sacks this season.

G Lucas Nix (Pittsburgh) #52

A right tackle and a right guard at Pittsburgh, Nix projects as a guard at the next level. He seems to have settled into that position at the college level as well. He’s not much of a pass protector, but he’s paved the way for some pretty impressive Pittsburgh rushing attacks over the years and could sneak into day 2 with a strong year. He’s got nice size at 6-6 310.

9/30/11 8 PM ET

Utah State at BYU

S Travis Uale (BYU) #23

Uale is a 6-2 200 safety and one of the few seniors on BYU’s defense. He had 42 tackles last season and already has 18 tackles and a pick in 4 games. If he keeps this up, he could get drafted.

MLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State) #9

The 2011 preseason WAC defensive player of the year, Wagner has 246 tackles in his last 2 seasons. He’s a bit undersized at 6-1 230, but projects as a nice depth linebacker and special teamer at the next level. He’ll have a chance to prove he can be more than that. He started the season well with 10 tackles and a sack against Auburn. He’s now at 38 tackles through 3 games.

 

10/1/11 12 PM ET

Northwestern at Illinois

QB Dan Persa (Northwestern) #7

Persa took over for Mike Kafka in the 2010 season after Kafka got drafted by the Eagles in the 4^th round of the 2010 draft. He did his best Kafka impersonation, game managing Northwestern to a surprising 7-3 record in 10 games before missing their last 3 games with an injury, all 3 of which they lost. He’s small at 6-1 210 and doesn’t have the biggest arm, but he completed 73.5% of his passes last season for an average of 8.5 yards per attempt, and 15 touchdowns to just 4 picks. He has missed their first 3 games of this season, but will return for their 4^th game here against Illinois. He’s a late round pick who could move up with a strong season.

DE Vince Browne (Northwestern) #94

The big physical Vince Browne had 16 sacks in his first 3 seasons for Northwestern and he provides great play against the run at 6-5 265. He’s got an excellent motor and plays better than the stat sheet would say, but he only has 1 sack this season in 3 games and he needs to get it going. He looks like a mid to late round prospect currently as a left end.

10/1/11 3:30 PM ET

Michigan State at Ohio State

QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) #8

Kirk Cousins came into 2011 as a 2^nd round prospect with the upside to move up into the 1^st round. However, he’s probably closer to the 3^rd round or later now than he is to the 1^st round. He’s a 3 year starter and put up nice numbers in 2009 and 2010, while leading the Michigan State Spartans to more wins than they were projected to win. However, he’s disappointed a bit as a senior. He’s completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 8.1 per attempt and 5 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, but the reports on him haven’t been that great, especially in their loss to Notre Dame. He’s got a big arm, but can he put it all together?

DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State) #99

After back to back seasons of 4 sacks, the 6-2 300 pound Worthy looks poised to be a first rounder in 2012, taking advantage of a weak defensive tackle class. He’s said to have more of any impact than the stat sheet will show and I’ll definitely be watching for that here to see if he’s worthy (pun intended) of being the top defensive tackle in this class. So far he has 1 sack and 2.5 tackles for loss in 4 games.

10/1/11 8 PM ET

Alabama at Florida

RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) #3

Trent Richardson had 700 yards and 8 scores on 112 carries as Mark Ingram’s backup in 2010 and showed his abilities with 100+ yards against Penn State with Mark Ingram out. He’s now the lead back and already has 441 yards and 8 scores on 67 carries so far. He also has 9 catches after 23 last year. He’s got better measurables than Mark Ingram, 5-11 225 and a 4.4 40, but looks to be the full package at running back. He should be the first back off the board.

CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) #21

A heavily recruited player, Kirkpatrick didn’t disappoint in his first year as a starter in 2010. He’s played better in 2011 and has solidified himself as the top cornerback in this draft class. He’s a big physical 6-3 200 player with low 4.4 high 4.3 speed. He could go as high as higher than Patrick Peterson did last year, depending on need.

 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-4

4 games in and Chan Gailey already tops my list of coaches who should be fired (over John Fox, Tom Coughlin, and Eric Mangini). Gailey’s scheme doesn’t work. That’s why the Chiefs went 2-14 and had the one of the league’s worst offenses when Gailey was the offensive coordinator in 2008. It works on a college level, but it doesn’t work in the NFL. The defenses are too smart and too fast to be fooled by a short throw offense. They’ll just stack the box and stagnant your offense. I can kind of see using that scheme with Trent Edwards at quarterback because Edwards throws like a girl (no offense to girls), but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bit of a stronger arm and they still aren’t setting up anything downfield to guys like Lee Evans (10 catches for 94 yards). 

Gailey also is refusing to use CJ Spiller, whom the front office spent the 9th overall pick on this past April. In 4 games, Spiller has 14 rushes and 12 catches for a total of 94 yards and a score. He used Marshawn Lynch as the feature back (37 carries for 164 yards) and now that they’ve cut ties with Lynch and traded him to Seattle for a 4th and a 6th rounder, Gailey has announced that Fred Jackson 920 carries for 87 yards) will be the starter. I know I didn’t like the Spiller move when it was made, because Lynch and Jackson were already capable of handling the running game, but at least use the kid. 

Also Gailey is starting the wrong quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 28 this November and has 789 career attempts as a 7th rounder pick out of Harvard. You know what you’re going to get out of him by and now and that’s a quarterback that, if everything else possibly goes right around him, will get you to 10-6. He’s not in that top 10 or top 15 tier of quarterbacks that can possibly win you a Super Bowl. My philosophy is that, if you know the guy starting for you isn’t the guy who can get your team where you want it to go, change the guy, whether it be by drafting a quarterback (which they should have done in April and should do this April in the 2011 NFL Draft) or by promoting someone in house. Brian Brohm has 29 career attempts and is a 25 year old former 2nd round pick. Why not see if he’s the guy that can take your team where you want it to go. It can’t hurt. He probably isn’t (17 for 29 for 146 yards and 2 picks in his career), but he’s still young and the Packers did see something in him when they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2008 (despite having Aaron Rodgers).

Finally, plain and simply, Gailey’s team sucks. There’s no getting past that. The Bills have lost by 20 or more points this year twice in 4 games and have yet to win a single game. They’ve lost by 15-10, 34-7, 38-30, and 38-14. That’s bad.

31. Cleveland Browns 1-3

Seneca Wallace did admirably in 3 starts after taking over for an injured Jake Delhomme after week 1. In 3 starts, he led the hapless Browns to a 1-2 record and threw for 554 yards on 52 for 85 with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks. He’s not the type of quarterback that’s going to win you a Super Bowl or anything, but he’s a solid game manager. The catch, they’re going back to Jake Delhomme this week. Come on. Did you expect any different? It’s the Browns. Browns and Bad quarterbacks are synonomous. I’m not sure what attracted them to Delhomme. Was it his 8 touchdowns to 18 picks in 2009? His 5 turnover game in the playoffs in 2008? Or his team killing 2 picks in the opener to lose a close one to the lowly Browns?

30. Detroit Lions 0-4

Further prove the football gods hate the Lions, the Lions are 0-4 and they’re not even playing badly. They’ve lost those 4 games by a combined 24 points. And it’s not like they’re almost beating bad teams. They lost to the Bears by 1 on a bullshit rule. They lost to the Eagles by 3. They lost to the Vikings by 14 in a game that should have been a lot closer. They lost by 2 to the Packers this past weekend. If they had had a healthy Matt Stafford, they could be 3-1 right now or something like that. Shaun Hill is a servicable player, but doesn’t have the big play potential Stafford has. They’re losing like always, but they’re not even playing like they always do. This team is now 3-41 in their last 44 games. The football gods hate the Lions.

29. Arizona Cardinals 2-2

The Cardinals are making the switch from Derek Anderson to undrafted rookie Max Hall, 4 games into this season. They’ve played a lot worse than their 2-2 record would suggest as their two wins came by a combined 5 points to the lowly Raiders and the Rams in Sam Bradford’s debut. They needed a missed chip shot field goal by Sebastian Janikowski to beat the Raiders. Their two losses came by a combined 65 points. Their runs scored/runs allowed differential of -60 is 2nd worst in the league to the Bills -64. They may be in first place, but they’re not playing like a first place team, at all.

I actually like the switch to Max Hall. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t I go into detail about how quarterbacks that have a rookie redshirt year do so much better in their careers. That is very true, but that only concerns potential franchise quarterbacks. I saw enough of Max Hall in college to know there’s about a .5% chance he’s a franchise quarterback in the NFL, maybe not even that much of a chance. However, he’s better than what they have in Derek Anderson. Hall is very similar to Bruce Gradkowski and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Give them an amazing supporting cast and they can take you to the playoffs. Hall can win this team the 6 or 7 games (I wish I was kidding) it could take to win this division. 

He’s pretty much the anti-Derek Anderson. Anderson has all the physical tools to win you games, but he’ll lose you a lot more than he’ll win you with poor decision making, accuracy, and intangibles. Hall doesn’t wow you with arm strength at all. He stands at about 6-1 210 with shoes on, but he’s a proven leader, and he’s got great mechanics and accuracy. He may be a rookie, but he’s 24, thanks to a 2 year mormon mission. He also is younger and less proven. You know what you’re getting with Derek Anderson and it ain’t pretty. With Hall, there’s a chance he could become that franchise guy that could lead your team to the Super Bowl. It’s not a good chance, but it’s a better chance than Anderson. And if he doesn’t, well maybe he can lead this team to a 7 win playoff berth this year and they can start fresh with a new signal caller in 2011. Or better yet, draft one in 2011 and sit him behind Hall for a year as a rookie redshirt year. Because after all, the history doesn’t lie. Rookie redshirt years do help.

28. Oakland Raiders 1-3

The Raiders have their biggest game of the year this week. They play the Chargers, the early season Chargers, and have a legitimate chance to knock the Chargers off for the first time in 13 games. This is their Super Bowl, because they’re obviously not going to be playing in any real Super Bowl anytime soon. I expect them to come out playing hard and (NFL Picks spoiler alert), I they’ll pull it off.

27. Carolina Panthers 0-4

Poor Jimmy Clausen. As if having a crappy offensive line, a defense that can’t stop anyone, a Head Coach who forgot his team was a run first team, and receivers for the most part that can’t get seperation, Steve Smith has now gone down with yet another of his patented injuries and could miss up to the month. Now he has no receivers that can get open. His top receivers are two rookies, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, both of whom were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Dwayne Jarrett who might as well not even have hands. He can’t catch anything. I don’t know how Clausen almost knocked off the Saints in New Orleans with this supporting cast.

26. San Francisco 49ers 0-4

What’s sad is that this team still has a decent shot of winning the division, despite starting 0-4. Their division is that bad. They have 5 more games remaining with division opponents. If they go 4-1 in those games, and then play decent (3-4) in their other 7 games, they have 7 wins and could win this division. Their still a talented team. In fact, I’d say they’re the most talented team in the division. Two of their losses were for stupid reasons and by a combined 5 points to a good Atlanta and a good New Orleans team. There’s no need to panic in San Fran and change coaches (why would you want to get rid of Singletary) or quarterbacks (argue all you want, Alex Smith is better than David Carr). If they don’t make the playoffs, then they can fire their coach and switch quarterbacks, meaning draft a new one in the first round with what should be a top 10 pick.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-2

The Jaguars just beat the Colts, but this is still a bad team. They beat the Colts because they always play the Colts tough. Some bad teams, in fact most bad teams, particularly ones that have been bad consistently in recent history, all have teams they play their hardest against traditionally. For the Jaguars, that is the Colts. They won that game because they gave it their all, but they don’t do that every week. In fact, they don’t do that most weeks. Also, those two weird turnovers by the Colts and a magical 59 yard field goal to win it also probably helped a lot.

24. Seattle Seahawks 2-2

I don’t love their move for Marshawn Lynch. I think that, first of all, running games are overrated. As long as you have a strong passing game to lift their pressure off the box, most decent running backs can average 4 YPC. Look at what the Patriots have been doing for years. All you need is different types of running backs to mix and match. Second of all, I don’t think the running game was the problem. Justin Forsett and Leon Washington were capable backs. Lynch does give them that extra look, which is good. The positives, of course, are that (as always) the NFC West sucks so adding a player like Lynch could have a tiny difference that pushes them over the top. Also, what they gave up, a 4th and 6th rounder, is not all that much.

23. st. Louis Rams 2-2

The Rams are the favorites in the NFC West? Why not? The Seahawks are having defensive issues and I know how that I trust Matt Hasselbeck as a quarterback. The 49ers and 0-4 desperately need to get their shit together. And the Cardinals just switch quarterbacks to an undrafted rookie. So, I’d say the Rams are the favorites in the NFC West. I’m not sure if you’re sensing a theme, but the NFC West is pretty bad.

What’s so surprising about the Rams is not their offense. Steven Jackson is doing what we expect him too, which is being a badass, doing everything a running back can possibly do, all while playing injured. Sam Bradford, though a lot will be made that he’s having a good year, is really not. He’s completing 58% of his passes for a YPA of 6.0 and 6 picks to 6 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad rookie numbers at all, but they’re not amazing, especially considering he’s faced some pretty run of the mill or worse defenses (Seattle, Washington, Arizona, Oakland). They’re basically what I expected from a rookie quarterback who didn’t have much experience in a pro style offense and hadn’t played in a competitive football game since October of 2009. 

What is surprising about the Rams and what is making them 2-2 is their defense. I guess it shouldn’t be so surprising, considering Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive genius. The Giants can’t create any pressure without Spags as their defensive coordinator (unless of course they’re playing the Bears). But the personnel on this defense were hardly impressive names coming into the season. However, they ranked 16th against the pass in YPA and 7th against the pass in QB rating. They also have an impressive 9 sacks (10th in the league) in 4 games.

This of course could be because of their weak strength of schedule. Other than Donovan McNabb, they aren’t really facing any good quarterbacks. Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, and Shaun Hill are hardly impressive quarterbacks. We’ll have to see what they do once they’re tested. Luckily for them, they won’t really be tested all that much. I think they have the easiest schedule in the league and that could propel them to be an unlikely playoff team (granted with 7 or so wins).

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Bye

21. Denver Broncos 2-2

With Kyle Orton playing the way he is, the Broncos are in a great position to challenge for the AFC West if the Chargers don’t improve and the Chiefs 3-0 start is really as much of a fluke as I think it is. Kyle Orton is playing like a legitimate quarterback and stretching the field. Their passing game is dangerous deep down field, something they didn’t have last year. That’s going to open things up for the running game and put points on the board. This is going to force opponents to match and that’s going to allow them to make the most of their strong pass defense. The big thing is though, red zone offense. 1419 passing yards by Orton has led to 6 passing touchdowns and 87 points. If they can capitalize on their strong passing offense, with a odd matched bunch of receviers that work well together (Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney), they’re going to be a solid team this year, especially if Knowshon Moreno can run well coming back from his injury, and if their ground defense can play as well as it did last week against Chris Johnson.

20. Philadelphia Eagles 2-2

Michael Vick supporters got more ammunition this week. First of all, they never got to see Michael Vick struggle against a defense that wasn’t the Lions’ or the Jaguars’ because he wasn’t in the game long enough. Before leaving with a rib cage injury, Vick was 5 for 7 for 59 yards and it was tough to call it either a bad performance or a good performance by Vick. Also, Kolb came in and didn’t really play that well and lost the game. Vick supporters can now say that the Eagles are 2-0 in games that Vick starts and finishes and 0-2 in games that he doesn’t. I can’t wait until Vick comes back and has to play a good defense and struggles and shuts up Vick supporters. Vick is not nearly the quarterback he once was and he was never even the quarterback that every thought he was. He’s not a good pocket passer or passer in general.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

Bye

18. Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Remember all the excitement around Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens that was out there before the season, all the hype. Where’s any of that now? It all disappeared and Owens just caught 10 catches for 222 yards and is not even really that big of news. I guess that’s what happens when you lose, especially to the Browns. I guess that just goes to show, it doesn’t matter how good your receivers are if your quarterback is crap. Palmer has proven this season that he is crap. No more excuses for him. If he can’t even lead this team to the playoffs, not looking likely, we can never possibly say he’s the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl. As I’ve mentioned, my rule with quarterbacks, if you don’t think you can win a Super Bowl with a guy, you’ve gotta switch, either to a backup that’s unproven or by drafting a new quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see if they do one of those two this offseason.

17. Tennessee Titans 2-2

I had a feeling that Chris Johnson could struggle this year, after leading the league in carries and touches at his small size last year, but I didn’t imagine anything like what we’ve seen from him at times this year. Johnson is averaging 3.8 YPA and has two performances of 34 yards and 53 yards. 34 against the Steelers is excuable. Michael Turner and Ray Rice couldn’t break 50 against them either. But 53 against the Broncos? This is the same Broncos team that was one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league last year and fixed that by giving enormous amounts of money to former backups on the defensive line. Johnson also has performances of 142 yards and 125 yards, but the low YPA, 3.8 on the year, hasn’t broken 4 in a week since week 1, and those two clunker performances, are very concerning, especially for Titans fans. The less he can run, the more Vince Young has to pass and the more Vince Young has to pass, the more they lose. Young is a great winner and game manager, but he can’t be relied on to win a game where he has to throw 30 times for 250 yards to win.

 

16. Miami Dolphins 2-2

Special teams, and particularly their special team’s coach, the recently canned John Bonamego, are going to be blamed for that loss to the Patriots, a loss in which the Patriots became the first team ever to have a kick return touchdown, a rushing touchdown, a passing touchdown, a blocker kick returned for a touchdown, and a pick six in the same game. However, the special teams shouldn’t take all the blame and what blame the special teams takes should fall on the players, not the coach. There’s only so much a coach can do if his players play like crap, as they did in the Patriots game. Also, even without the 21 points (punt return touchdown, blocked kick return touchdown, blocked punt that set up a short field for a touchdown) that their special teams gave up, they still lose that game 20-14. I feel like special teams could be a scapegoat for their loss. They didn’t just lose because their special teams didn’t play well. As a team, they didn’t play well.

Henne was able to move the ball well on a poor New England defense, but he also through three killer interceptions (one for a pick six) that simply should not have been thrown. I know he’s young, but he’s got to work on his decision making. Now, there are actually talks that Henne could be benched in favor of Chad Pennington (3 comeback players of the year for Pennington?), an interesting move, as they attempt to save their season. I think it would be best to let Henne work through his issues, but if they feel differently, Pennington could be the guy again.

15. Minnesota Vikings 1-2

The Vikings had a bye last week, but made headlines by trading for former face of the franchise Randy Moss. I know it’s not the same regime in town as it was when Moss forced himself out after the 2004 season and began his exile in Oakland, but it’ll still be weird seeing Moss in a Vikings jersey again. I do like the move of the Vikings though. Sidney Rice isn’t playing for at least another 4 weeks and they could be out of it by then. Favre has proven this year that he needs a big athletic target like a Randy Moss or a Sidney Rice. The Vikings figure, Favre’s probably done after the year anyway, meaning it would be back to square one for this franchise, why not go all out this year and try as hard as possible to win it all. I like the courage. I’m not sure it even makes them a playoff team yet. Favre still has to play better and get better protection, but if those things happen, look out, especially once Rice returns. Moss, Rice, Harvin, Peterson, Favre, oh shit. How do you stop that? Moss faces his old nemisis Darrelle Revis this week as the Vikings take on the Jets. I’ll say more about the Moss move in the Patriots section (spoiler alert).

14. Chicago Bears 3-1

Many people can be blamed for what took place on the field last week at Meadowlands, meaning 10 sacks by the Giants on the Bears, two different quarterbacks getting hurt for the Bears, and a total offense of 110 yards. First of all, Mike Martz’ scheme was to blame. It’s pretty easy to stop the Mike Martz scheme, just create pressure on the quarterback. The Martz scheme can be explosive, but it requires a lot of time in the pocket, a lot of 7 step drops to set up deep routes. 2nd, I’m going to blame Jay Cutler himself. He knows the pressure is coming. He’s got to get it out of there to one of the open guys. When the opponent blitzes, someone is open. He knows the blitz is coming. He needs to do what Kurt Warner did in this scheme in St. Louis, read the blitz and get that ball out of there. He looked like a statue out there last week and simply could not read the blitz at all. 3rd, you gotta blame the offensive line. They have to block better than that, plain and simple. I had some concerns about the Martz scheme coming to Chicago this year and those two concerns were the Cutler doesn’t do well under pressure and that the Bears offensive line is pretty porous. Both of those concerns came to life last Sunday night in a 17-3 loss to the Giants. They’ll have to rebound this week against the Panthers, but without Jay Cutler (concussion). Todd Collins will start instead.

13. New York Giants 2-2

Still tough to get a read on this team. They are a talented bunch, but they are just 2-2 and their offense didn’t look that great in a 17-3 win over the Bears. You’d think if how well that defense play, their offense could have easily scored 20-25 if they had been more in sync, but they weren’t. Time will still continue to tell for this team, but I think Tom Coughlin will get fired if they slip up in these next few weeks or if they don’t make the playoffs this season as this team is talented enough to make the playoffs easily.

12. Washington Redskins 2-2

Clinton Portis’ injury, for 4 to 6 weeks with a hammy problem, could be a blessing in disguise for this team. Ryan Torain is younger and is running better right now. He looks like the future at running back for the Redskins. I had a feeling he could have a big role on this team at some point this year. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Pakrer are all ancient (two have been cut, one is hurt) and Shanahan specifically brought Torain in from Denver, the team with whom Shanahan drafted Torain in the 5th round in 2008.

11. Dallas Cowboys 1-2

Bye

10. Houston Texans 3-1

Gary Kubiak’s decision to bench Foster for a quarter and a half because he was late to one team meeting is a bit head scratching. There could have been prior offenses, but everything I’ve read about him has been positive, regarding his character, so I doubt that. Luckily for Kubiak, Foster still managed 187 total yards and 2 total touchdowns on 19 touches and a 31-24 Texans victory, and I mean luckily in more than one sense. Luckily for his team’s sake. They still won the game 31-24, despite not having Andre Johnson’s services at all. And, Kubiak won’t be killed by an angry mob of fantasy owners for benching their star player without any word prior. Those fantasy owners who were once pissed and ready to form an angry mob to march down to Houston to kill Kubiak (including me) now can’t possibly be pissed because Foster got them 34 fantasy points. 

9. Baltimore Ravens 3-1

Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers with Big Ben: 4-0. Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers without Big Ben: 0-2. Joe Flacco’s late drive to lead his team to victory was impressive, especially considering that was the first time all season the Pittsburgh defense was made look human. However, you still have to wonder what that score looks like if Ben plays. In a few weeks we’ll see as these two, of course, will meet again later in the season, but for now, Flacco’s accomplishment, however impressive, is a bit cheapened by Ben’s suspension.

8. San Diego Chargers 2-2

We still don’t know what type of team this is. They don’t normally start playing good football until late October, early November. They’ve had an extremely easy early season schedule, but thanks to two close and kind of weird losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road, they do sit at 2-2. Their schedule doesn’t get much harder these next two weeks as they face the Raiders and Rams. However, they better bring it weeks 7-9 before the bye as they face New England, Tennessee, and Houston. After the bye, they face division rival Denver and the Colts. If they struggle in those 5 games and go say 2-3, I’d be concerned about their ability to win this division. The Chiefs and Broncos are both better than they were last year.

7. New England Patriots 3-1

The Patriots were really impressive last week, but considering how they won, I don’t think it tells us a ton about this team. This defense looked really bad for most of the time they were on the field, with the exception of their 4 interceptions. This defense might not be able to tackle anyone or cover anyone, but they can take the ball away from you. Their 7 interceptions on the season rank 2nd best in the league, only to Atlanta with 8.

I also want to comment on the Randy Moss move. I live in Boston and the move definitely didn’t go over well with Patriots nation here. I, included, am not a fan of the move. I rather have kept Moss for the season and let him go after then have just gotten a 3rd rounder for him. I’d feel differently if it was the originally rumored 2nd round pick, because in that case, Moss isn;t a huge part of this offense any more, and they probably weren’t going to win the Super Bowl with or without him, and he was going to go for nothing after the season, and it would allow us to build young talent for 2012 or 2013, when Moss would clearly have been out of the picture anyway. But a 3rd rounder is different. It just doesn’t feel like fair value. the only way this move makes sense to me is if there was something internal that we don’t know about that forced him out. It certainly wouldn’t be the first team a team has had to trade Randy Moss for dimes on the dollar for behind the scenes reasons. Unfortunately, since it is the Patriots, we’re never going to know for sure.

6. New York Jets 3-1

In the process of determining if Mark Sanchez has taken the leap in his 2nd year to being a legitimate Super Bowl caliber quarterback, the fact that he just destroyed the Bills means about as little as anything can mean. The fact that a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is running like he’s 25, however, is huge. The more LT and Shonn Greene (who also rushed for over 100 yards, first time this season, against the Bills) can do, the less Sanchez has to do,a dn the less Sanchez has to do, the better I still say at this point in his career. At the same time, this defense gets Calvin Pace and Darrelle Revis back, and the offense gets Santonio Holmes back from suspension. This team is now 100% and very, very scary.

5. Atlanta Falcons 3-1

I was expecting a letdown after they beat the Saints, essentially their Super Bowl, so I’m not surprised that it took a weird play for them to beat the 49ers by 2. This team is still an elite team in great position to make a deep run this January.

4. New Orleans Saints 3-1

The Saints have won their 3 games by a combined 10 points over three teams that are a combined 1-11. The Super Bowl hangover has hit this team. That’s the bad news. The good news, they’re still 3-1 and you just know that Drew Brees could explode to lead this team to 30+ points on any given week still. You still fear this team and their weapons. I’m not going to pick them to go all the way, especially as their already weak defense will miss Tracy Porter (out indefinitely) and their offense wll miss Reggie Bush, who by even the most optimistic projections, is out until after week 7. Their offense simply isn’t quite the same without him. However, I’m not going to be surprised if they repeated. They’re still a talented bunch sitting at 3-1.

3. Indianapolis Colts 2-2

People in the sports media are panicking and overreacting to the Colts loss to the Jaguars and the fact that they sit at 2-2. The Colts lost to a good Houston team that was playing its heart out and as Jacksonville team that was playing its heart out, because of two weird turnovers and an amazing 59 yard field goal by Jags’ kicker Josh Scobee. There’s a chance they don’t get 12 wins again this year, but they’re still a dangerous team. They still have Peyton Manning and there is no Super Bowl hangover with this team. They’ve been to the Super Bowl before and won it. They won’t be as distracted by losing one, for that reason, than a team that had never been to a Super Bowl together before that.

2. Green Bay Packers 3-1

The fact that the Packers barely beat the Lions by 2 and all the injuries that are adding up (Ryan Grant, Morgan Burnett, Nick Barnett out for the season, Nick Collins out indefinitely) are causes for concern for the Packers. However, they were my Super Bowl pick to start the year and they are still 3-1 with one loss by 3 points, so I’m still ranking them very high. I love the explosiveness of this offense with Aaron Rodgers. I would have loved it more if they had traded for a real running back like Marshawn Lynch, but whatever.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

The Steelers lost, by remain my #1 team for the 2nd week in a row because, look what happened to all the other top 5 teams. Atlanta won by 2, New Orleans won by 2, Green Bay won by 2, and the Colts lost. No elite team did amazing last week and the Steelers were easily playing the toughest opponent of the bunch. If this team can mesh well when Big Ben comes back, they’re going far this year. It’s as simple as that.

 

In order you should pick them up

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.8%

Torain was already splitting carries with Clinton Portis before Portis got hurt late against the Eagles. No word on how long Portis will be out, but he’s old and certainly had injury issues before. Torain rushed for 70 yards on 19 carries against the Eagles.

WR Lance Moore- New Orleans

Percent owned (ESPN): 35.0%

In 2008, Reggie Bush missed significant time with injury and Moore caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 scores as the Saints’ slot receiver. In the last 2 weeks, with Bush out, Moore has caught 11 passes for 186 yards and 3 scores. By even the most optimistic estimations, Bush will miss at least the next three weeks. That means Moore will be the Saints slot receiver as the Saints take on Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. There should be opportunity for big fantasy points in there.

TE Brandon Pettigrew- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.5%

In the last 3 weeks, the 2^nd year tight end has caught 21 balls for 233 yards. It seems he is finally breaking out and Shaun Hill loves throwing to him.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.4%

With Brandon Marshall drawing the coverage off of him, the sure handed Bess has 22 catches for 242 yards and a score in 4 weeks.

TE Benjamin Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.0%

Remember when everyone thought he was done, following a poor contract year in New England. Watson has 15 catches for 169 yards in the last 3 weeks and he has been the Browns best receiver, for what that’s worth.

 

TE Tony Scheffler- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.3%

Shaun Hill loves throwing to his tight ends, both Pettigrew and Scheffler. Both are often on the field at the same time. He has 21 catches for 171 yards in 4 games this season.

RB John Kuhn- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 31.8%

Kuhn is still splitting carries with Brandon Jackson, but he’s been running better than Jackson so he could get the upper hand soon. He’s also the goal line back. The only problem, the Packers are not a running team. He’s still worth a pickup in deep leagues though, but wait until he’s the true lead back before starting him.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.5%

MSW (Mike Sims Walker) has been struggling this season and it appears that Mike Thomas (17 catches for 207 yards) has become the new lead receiver in his 2^nd season. The Jaguars aren’t that good though and their receiving game is very inconsistent.

 

Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)

Overall picks: 37-25 (.597)

ATS Picks: 29-30-3 (-$250/-1%)

Lock picks: 3-1

Upset picks: 5-3

Sports Betting FAQ 

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 Buffalo Bills 31 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 1/2 Jacksonville

Pick against spread: Buffalo (2 units) -220

The Jacksonville Jaguars just played their hearts out to win a miracle game against their hated rival Colts. However, the Jaguars don’t always play to their potential. In fact, more often than not, they don’t. I doubt they will this team, after doing so last week, especially against an 0-4 Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven can he move the ball on bad defenses and the jaguars defense may be even worse than the Patriots. They can score a lot of points in this game. I just doubt the Jaguars, despite having MJD to destroy the Bills weak front 7, will play well enough to match the Bills’ offensive output this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick

Spread: -7 Cincinnati

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay (3 units) +300

Cincinnati is very overrated still. They just lost to the Bills, sit at 2-2, and are 7 point favorites against a 2-1 team coming off its bye. Don’t pay attention to how much Josh Freeman and this offense struggled against the Steelers. Matt Ryan did the same week 1 and he’s 3-0 since. Josh Freeman is still a very competent quarterback, better than the overrated Carson Palmer. Palmer can have a decent game against the Buccaneers weak defense, but if they couldn’t score big amounts of points against the Browns, they won’t be able to against the Buccaneers this week either. This simply is not a team that can score a lot of points. They didn’t last year, for the most part, and they haven’t this year at all. I expect Josh Freeman to lead a last second drive over the Bengals defense to win this hard fought matchup.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cleveland Browns 16 lock pick

Spread: -3 Atlanta

Pick against the spread: Atlanta (4 units) +400

The Browns are coming off a win and get their starting quarterback back from injury, but I don’t see why they are only given 3 points in this one, especially considering that win was in close fashion against the lowly Bengals and that starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, should cause more harm than good to this team. Say what you want about Seneca Wallace. He didn’t lose them any games. Delhomme loses games all the time. The Falcons lead the league in interceptions in 8. Delhomme should throw at least 2, probably 3 picks this week, setting up good field position for the Falcons offense against the Browns mediocre defenses all day.

St. Louis Rams 23 Detroit Lions 13 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Detroit

Pick against spread: St. Louis (3 units) -330

This is probably the only time you’ll see a division leading team be given 3 points against a winless team. The Lions certainly aren’t playing bad, especially for a team that’s missing it’s starting quarterback, they’re just losing, and in close fashion. I expect them to do the same this week, losing in a way that’s a lot closer than the score suggests. However, the Rams are the better team. They have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better running game, and the better defense. The Rams defense has been beating up on bad offenses with bad offensive lines all year. The Lions, with Shaun Hill, are certainly not a good offensive team and that line is miserable. The Lions should be able to create pressure on Sam Bradford, something he’s never faced before in the NFL, which is why I think this one will be close, but I like the Rams to win this one because they are overall a more talented team.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Indianapolis Colts 31

Spread: -7 1/2 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (2 units) +200

It is weird seeing the Colts 2-2 facing the 3-0 Chiefs. That just doesn’t seem right. However, the Chiefs are not coming out of this one undefeated. The Chiefs have yet to face a quarterback like Peyton Manning, or anyone even close. They faced Philip Rivers week 1, and only won because they got a long run, an interception, and a punt return touchdown. Cassel actually only passed for 68 yards that game so it’s not like he really matched Philip Rivers, who played decently in early season form. Peyton Manning is a completely different animal. There’s no way that Matt Cassel can match what he will do. It’ll take a true miracle (something along the lines what the Patriots special teams did against the Dolphins week 4) for the Chiefs to score enough points to match the Colts. They do have a strong running game, which helps against a weak Indianapolis run defense, but I don’t think they’ll even be using their best runner, Jamaal Charles, as much as necessary.

Green Bay Packers 28 Washington Redskins 17

Spread: -3 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay (3 units) -330

The Packers are a sloppy 3-1, barely beating Philly and Detroit, and losing, on the strength of 18 penalties, to the Bears on Monday Night Football. However, they still have an explosive passing game. Their running game is bad, but this is not a running league anymore and the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Aaron Rodgers should have a huge game. Considering how good the Packers ground defense is, they’ll force Donovan McNabb to play catch up and match, pretty much by himself and based off of his 8-19 last week, I don’t think that’s something he can do for this team.

Chicago Bears 19 Carolina Panthers 13

Spread: -3 Chicago

Pick against spread: Chicago (2 units) +200

The Bears will miss Jay Cutler this week, with a concussion, and Todd Collins will make his first start since 2007, when he led the Redskins on an unbelievable playoff run in memory of Sean Taylor’s passing. Even without Cutler, this team can still score points this week. The Panthers don’t have anything that resembles a pass rush. They have 4 sacks all year, 2 by their defensive line. Teams with defensive lines that can create pressure give Mike Martz led offenses a hard time. However, teams that blitz give Jay Cutler a hard time. Todd Collins is not Jay Cutler. He doesn’t have Cutler’s down field ability, but he is a veteran and should be able to get the ball out to the open man against a blitz. If the Panthers don’t blitz, well Collins should have plenty on time in the pocket and time in the pocket is what makes this offense go. We all saw what Cutler did with time against the Cowboys. Collins, again, doesn’t have Cutler’s arm, but he can still make some things happen downfield if given time. The Bears are also going to be playing harder this week. The Bears lost their quarterback and teams that lose their quarterback often play 110% in the first game without him. The Panthers are 0-4, coming off a demoralizing loss, and now face a Bears team that was destroyed on Sunday Night Football and is missing their quarterback. The Panthers aren’t going to be able to match what an inspired Bears offensive unit can do against a weak defensive line. Jimmy Clausen is talented, but with Steve Smith down, he has absolutely no receivers to rely on. The Bears defensive line should be able to shut down the Panthers ground attack and force the pressure onto Clausen and his receivers. He won’t be able to match.

 

Denver Broncos 13 Baltimore Ravens 27

Spread: -7 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) +300

Kyle Orton is what makes this Denver team go. However, the Ravens have the best pass defense in the league and have yet to give up more than 167 yards in a game. The Broncos offense is extremely one dimensional. One dimensional offenses, especially finesse type teams like the Broncos, don’t do well against the Ravens. It’s the exact same reason I picked the Broncos to lose to the Ravens when they were 6-0 last year. The logic remains the same. It helped me once, so I’m sticking with it. 

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Houston (1 unit) -110

I’m not sure I believe in this Giants team. Their offense could only put up 17 points last week, despite the fact that their defense got 10 sacks. The defense isn’t going to get 10 sacks this week. The Texans are capable of protecting their quarterback. The Texans pass defense is not that great, so it will be up to Eli Manning to put points up on the board and finally have a strong game, but I’m not betting on him to, especially with Brian Cushing coming back to the Texans. I expect the Texans strong offense to score enough on the Giants defense to outscore the Giants discombobulated offensive bunch.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 21

Spread: -7 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Arizona (2 units) +200

The Cardinals are a completely different team at home than on the road. At home they are 2-0 (+5) and on the road they’re 0-2 (-65). I’m not going to pick them to go 3-0 at home and beat the Saints, but I’m not taking the Saints to cover. The Saints have been favored in each of their games this year and have yet to cover. There is a definite Super Bowl hangover with this team. They could exploide for 30+ and cover any given week, but they have yet to do that. Max Hall, the new quarterback for the Cardinals, can keep teams in games. He’s not Derek Anderson. I expect Hall to keep this one close and Brees to lead a late drive to win it, but to fail to cover once again.

Tennessee Titans 17 Dallas Cowboys 23

Spread: -7 Dallas

Pick against spread: Tennessee (1 unit) +100

This is a tough one. The Titans seem to be alternating, win, loss, win, loss, this year. However, the Cowboys are coming off a bye, which they could have used to regroup, and also an impressive victory on the road against the Texans. The outcome of this game is going to depend a lot on Chris Johnson. When he rushes for more than 100 yards, they win, 2-0. The Cowboys have a fairly capable ground defense and if they can shut him down the way the Steelers and Broncos did, they’re going to win this game. There’s no question about it. Vince Young would have to outthrow Tony Romo to win that game and that’s not something he can do. I like the Cowboys to win, but not to cover. That 7 point spread is a lot for a team that’s 1-2 against a team that has played some really good football at times this year.

San Diego Chargers 20 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 1/2 Chargers

Pick against spread: Oakland (3 units) +300

The Raiders haven’t beaten the Chargers in their last 13 matchups. This is the week I think that changes. The Chargers are a completely different team on the road than at home, going 0-2 on the road against the Chiefs and Seahawks. If they can lose to lose two teams on the road, they can lose to the Raiders. The Chargers are in early season form still and we saw them almost lose to the Raiders last year when they were in early season form. LT has always destroyed the Raiders and that’s why they’ve been so dominant. LT isn’t in San Diego anymore. The Raiders are going to be playing their hearts out to beat a tough divisional rival that they haven’t had a lot of success against, the way the Texans and Jaguars did against the Colts and the way the Bills did against the Patriots, though the Bills did end up falling. The Raiders also have their best quarterback since that 13 game streak started. All things are lining up for the Raiders to shock the world and pull off the upset.

Philadelphia Eagles 21 San Francisco 49ers 28

Spread: -3 1/2 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco (2 units) -220

This is the 49ers last stand. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-5, even in a division as bad as the NFC West. They are going to be playing their hearts out this week. They’re at home, a place they’ve only been once this year. In that game, they played their best overall football and almost beat the Saints. The Eagles have to travel across 3 time zones, something that teams have trouble doing in the NFL. The 49ers are also playing at home, on Sunday Night Football. Teams this year are 7-2 against the spread at home on either Monday Night or Sunday Night Football. Those two losses were both the Dolphins. I’ve got the 49ers winning, playing 110% at home in their last stand under the Sunday Night Football lights, against a team that’s traveling 3 time zones. However, I’m only putting 2 units, instead of 3. The spread is 3.5 and I could definitely see the 49ers winning by a field goal late.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 20

Spread: -4 New York Jets

Pick against spread: Minnesota (1 unit)

This was the toughest pick for me. The Vikings are coming off a bye and just added Randy Moss to their team. Moss won’t do much against Darrelle Revis likely, but he will keep Revis off of Percy Harvin. Harvin, rested off of a bye, should have a big game this week. However, the Jets are playing really well right now beating all 3 AFC East opponents in consectutive weeks. Nothing impressive really about blowing out the Bills, but beating the Dolphins and Patriots are both impressive feats. The Jets are also finally at full strength. Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace should both be back from injury this week and Santonio Holmes is back from his 4 game suspension. At the end of the day, I decided the Jets defense would be too much for Brett Favre on the road. Favre will probably be sacked and picked off quite a bit this week and that’ll lead to good field position for the Jets. However, I’m taking the Vikings against the spread. Never pick a favorite of more than 3 points in a game between teams you see as evenly matched, because there’s a good chance that game is going to be won by a field goal.