Week 5 Injury Report

WR Steve Breaston- Arizona

Out

RB Ray Rice- Baltimore

Practiced fine all week. After playing last week, I doubt he misses this week. All systems go with Rice against Denver.

RB DeAngelo Williams- Carolina

Missed one practice with an illness this week, but he came back fine from it and he’s going to be out there Sunday.

WR Steve Smith- Carolina

Out.

QB Jay Cutler- Chicago

Out. 

RB Peyton Hillis- Cleveland

He sat out Friday with a thigh injury for precautionary reasons, but the team expects him to play so you should too. He might be limited though with that injury.

WR Josh Cribbs- Cleveland

Expected to play, but he’s still too inconsistent to be in your lineup regularly.

TE Jason Witten- Dallas

Practiced all week with a knee injury. Seems like the bye came at a perfect time for him as he will play this week.

RB Knowshon Moreno- Denver

Out.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Out. 

RB Jahvid Best- Detroit

Practiced through the same toe injury which he played through last week. Look like all systems a go with Best vs. St. Louis.

TE Tony Scheffler- Detroit

Missed serious practice this week with a concussion and I expect the Lions to sit him for precautionary reasons this week. They do have him listed as questionable however, so check back here tomorrow or follow me on twitter, just to make sure.

WR Andre Johnson- Houston

Listed as a game time decision, all though the consensus is that he’ll play. Check back tomorrow though or follow me on twitter.

WR Jacoby Jones- Houston

Also a game time decision. If he plays and Johnson doesn’t, he could have a big game so monitor both of those situations and check back here tomorrow or follow me on twitter.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

He looks like he’s gonna play, but between this hamstring problem and his knee problem, he’s nowhere near 100%. He has 7 catches in 4 games this year. Sit him.

 

WR Anthony Gonzalez- Indianapolis

Out.

WR Pierre Garcon- Indianapolis

Practiced in full two days straight, but is still listed as questionable. I’d expect him to play and he could be worth a start depending on the status of Indy’s other receivers.

WR Reggie Wayne- Indianapolis

Missed a day of practice this week, but it doesn’t appear to be too bad. He’s listed as probable and should be back out there. A lot is made of Peyton Manning’s durability. Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year back in 2000.

WR Austin Collie- Indianapolis

Missed two days of practice this week before practicing Friday. He’s listed as a game time decision so check back tomorrow or follow me on twitter. If he doesn’t play, Garcon is fantasy startable.

RB Donald Brown- Indianapolis

Not officially out, but I see no way he plays.

RB Joseph Addai- Indianpolis

He’s hurt, but he hasn’t missed practice. He’ll start.

RB Maurice Jones Drew- Jacksonville

MJD sprained an ankle last week and missed some practice time, but he’s expected to be back out there for their game. They face Buffalo who can’t stop anyone on the ground. MJD could have a huge week for the 2nd straight week after gutting the Colts for 105.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

Has bad elbow inflamation, but of course he’ll be out there. I don’t know if I’d start him though. He’s playing bad and that elbow isn’t helping him out at all.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe- Minnesota

Upgraded from questionable to probable late in the week, definitely a good sign. Even though he didn’t get through a full day of practice all week. He doesn’t play until Monday, which is risky, but I expect him to be out. I’d take that risk, unless there’s a good waiver pickup available to plug in instead.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

He’s likely out after missing practice all week.

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Out.

QB Drew Brees- New Orleans

WR Marques Colston- New Orleans

Both of them practiced all week and should play.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw- NY Giants

He’s got a sore ankle, but he has assured us many times that he’ll play and carry a full workload this week. He played through this kind of stuff last year. He’s a tough kid.

RB Darren McFadden- Oakland

Out.

WR Chaz Schilens- Oakland

Out.

TE Zach Miller- Oakland

Miller has a sore hip, but is expected to play. No worries here. As I projected, he’s a fantasy beast.

QB Michael Vick- Philadelphia

Out.

TE Brent Celek- Philadelphia

He has practiced all week through a wrist injury for the 2nd straight week. He’s fine. Have him in your lineup this week as his BFF Kevin Kolb is starting at quarterback. Kolb loves the checkdown to Celek and LeSean McCoy. 

RB LeSean McCoy- Philadelphia

He did practice in full friday and is expected to start versus San Francisco. He might not be 100%, but he’s an awesome fantasy player, especially with Kevin Checkdown Kolb at quarterback.

RB Steven Jackson- St. Louis

He’s got a groin injury, but I legitimately believe he’d play even if he got shot before the game. He’s that badass.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

He’s got a knee injury, but that’s nothing new. I think he was born with a knee injury. He’s going to play anyway as he always does.

WR Justin Gage- Tennessee

Out.

QB Donovan McNabb- Washington

Practiced all week with a thigh injury. If he’s your starter, roll with him.

RB Clinton Portis- Washington

Out.

 

Week 5 Fantasy Report

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RB Stevan Ridley- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.6%

Ridley was the Patriots’ leading rusher for the 2nd straight week and Danny Woodhead left last week’s game with an injury. Ridley looks like the most talented runner on New England offense, rushing for 97 yards and a score on just 10 carries last week, and he should get more  of a workload going forward.

RB Bernard Scott- Cincinnati

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.9%

Cedric Benson will begin his suspension at some point, probably this week. Bernard Scott is expected to be the feature back for 3 games in his absence so he’ll have some value for that stretch just like he did for a few weeks in 2009 when Benson was hurt.

WR Antonio Brown- Pittsburgh

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.9%

Brown is further proving himself to be Big Ben’s 2nd favorite target. He caught 5 passes for 67 yards and led the team with 10 targets last week. He has 13 catches for 221 yards in his last 3.

WR Victor Cruz- NY Giants

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.4%

Cruz was here last week, but moves up because he was able to produce even with Mario Manningham back. Cruz had 6 catches for 98 yards and could be moving into Steve Smith’s old role.

 

WR Jacoby Jones- Houston

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.4%

Andre Johnson is going to miss at least a week with injury. After tight end Owen Daniels, Jones figures to be Matt Schaub’s favorite target for any games Schaub misses.

TE Jermaine Gresham- Cincinnati

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.9%

He’s not flashy, but he’s getting the job done. Andy Dalton seems comfortable throwing to him. He has 16 catches for 187 yards and 2 scores in 4 games and he is, of course, a former first round pick at tight end.

TE Ed Dickson- Baltimore

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.3%

Dickson led Ravens’ receivers by far with 12 targets last week. He only caught 4 because Joe Flacco sucked, but Flacco won’t suck every week and it’s good to see how much he likes throwing to Dickson. He has 16 catches for 180 yards and a score this season.

TE Jared Cook- Tennessee

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.5%

Cook was Hasselbeck’s favorite target last week with Kenny Britt out. He led the team in targets, but only had 2 catches. He was still able to put up 92 yards and a score and he has some value moving forward.

RB Isaac Redman- Pittsburgh

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.3%

Redman led the Steelers in rushing yards last week with 40. Mendenhall might not be able to go this week, in which case Redman would start. Either way, Mendenhall has really struggled this season and Redman could be in line for more carries moving forward.

 

Week 4 UFB Rankings

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(2)  1. Green Bay Packers (10)   –   3 – 0    next vs Denver Broncos 

Green Bay’s offense is unstoppable, putting up 27 points in each game so far, while the defense has improved in every game as well.   Defense shuts down Cutler and the Packers begin their ascend to repeat. Defense held Matt Forte to 8 inches a rush……That is not a joke either…

(2)  2. New Orleans Saints   –  2 – 1    next at Jacksonville Jauguars

The Saints passing attack has been just as good as the Packers has, although their defense hasn’t been nearly as consistent as we expected. The defense though has a lot of talented pieces, and they should really improve moving forward.   Well, I guess its kinda the story of  ”In Breesus We Trust.”

(1)  3. New England Patriots  –  2 – 1  next at Oakland Raiders

 No one’s perfect. They were going to lose a game at some point. The Packers were most preseason pick last year. They lost week 3.  Look how that turned out.  It’s all about the defense for New England, their offense is dominant and cannot be stopped, but unfortunately the defense has many weak spots and is thin. They can beat any team in the league at any time, but games like Buffalo this past week can also happen.

(6)  4. Detroit Lions  –  3 – 0    next at Dallas Cowboys

The Lions are one of three teams still undefeated, a surprise 3-0 team along with Buffalo. The bad news, division rival Green Bay is the 3rd 3-0 team. They’re not getting this division unless they can beat Green Bay head to head twice and I don’t think they can do that.  This weeks match up will give us a better look at how tough this team really is and will be as a measuring stick to let them know if they are ready to take on the Green Bay Packers.

(9)  5. Baltimore Ravens  –  2 – 1   next vs New York Jets

Baltimore has looked dominant in its wins over Pittsburgh and St Louis, though they looked pretty bad in a week 2 loss to the Titans. We suspect their 2 wins are closer to reality than the loss. You think the Ravens didn’t like losing to the Titans? Sam Bradford and company didn’t know what hit them last week, this week should give us an answer.  Are they the real deal or a roller coaster team?

(7)  6. Houston Texans  –  2 – 1   next vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston did what they do best last week, they blew a big lead. However, New Orleans is a quality opponent and they still played well. They have the ability to get things together heading forward.  Mario Williams might just have a career day this week……Considering how bad the Steelers O Line is…

(15)  7. Buffalo Bills  –  3 – 0   next at Cincinnati Bengals

Unbelievably, the Bills are the lone undefeated team in the AFC But with the way they’ve played, they have earned it, scoring the most points of any team in the league, and having the 3rd most yards per game.   The Patriots beat themselves as much as the Bills won.  We’ll give them a few more games before they are top-5 material.

 

(4)  8. New York Jets  –  2 – 1   next at Baltimore Ravens

The Jets got embarrassed in Oakland in a game that just meant more to Oakland than it did to them. Now is the real test, a trip to Baltimore followed by a trip to New England.  We agree, Joe Namath. They’re overhyped.

(10) 9. Pittsburgh Steelers  –  2 -1   next at Houston Texans

Sure Pittsburgh cakewalked over Seattle 24-0 in week 2, but in their other 2 games, a 34-7 loss to Baltimore, and a 23-20 win over Indy, they have not looked impressive at all. Their Offensive Line is still atrocious.  They had to put injured players back into the game on the offensive line against Indy and would have lost had Curtis Painter not missed a wide open man for a touchdown. Now they have to go into Houston.

(13) 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  2 – 1   next vs Indianapolis Colts

Every one knew they were a good team, just wasn’t sure how good.  With their only loss coming to the Lions, they have showed us they are good.  With wins against a struggling Vikings and Falcons team, we are still uncertain how good.  This weak schedule doesn’t help their rankings, but opponents like this weeks should keep their win column increasing.

(NR) 11. Dallas Cowboys  2 – 1   next vs Detroit Lions

What a gritty 2 weeks Tony Romo is putting out.  If he continues to do this, he might just win over fans in Dallas, and some games deep in January too.  He throws for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets in a game that his special teams blew. He leads a comeback with a cracked rib against San Francisco and then he beats Washington despite 4 botched snaps by Phil Costa and Kevin Ogletree consistently running the wrong route.

(NR) 12. New York Giants  2 – 1   next at Arizona Cardinals

After struggling in the first six quarters of the season, it seems like Eli Manning has gotten his mojo back. The Giants had a very impressive performance at Philadelphia. Or maybe the overrated Eagles just sucked. Not totally sure. We will be keeping a close eye on this team to see if they are a serious contender or if they are a product of false advertising.

(11) 13. San Diego Chargers  2 – 1   next vs Miami Dolphins

The Chargers are rumored to be pressing so much to win in the early part of the season that they’re playing badly. San Diego’s 2 wins game against teams with 0 combined wins, and 3 of their next 4 opponents are winless to this point. So we won’t know a whole lot about the Chargers for a month or so.  Chargers fans have to be concerned after barely beating Kansas City and Minnesota in San Diego. What if this team can’t get it together in the 2nd half again?

(5) 14. Philadelphia Eagles  1 -2   next vs San Fransisco 49ers

The “dream team” is in serious trouble, Vick has a hand contusion so he wont be out as long as a broken hand.  But as much as he gets hit, there is no way that doesn’t effect him.  Eagles gambled when they traded Kolb, and right now the Eagles hand looks like a 7 of Hearts and a 10 of Clubs…Decent but they just don’t match.

(NR) 15. Oakland Raiders  2 – 1   next vs New England Patriots

The Raiders aren’t as good as their 2-1 record, with one loss to a 3-0 team, would suggest. They won an ugly game against the lowly Broncos. They blew a big lead in Buffalo. Last week, they caught the Jets napping and looking forward to Baltimore next week.  Lets see how they do against the Patriots before we go power ranking happy with the Raiders.

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

David Calagis of The Football Genius

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

J. Lew of Wild Wild West

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

The Wizard of The Wizard’s Corner

Mrs. NFL of Football Talk with Mrs. NFL

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Week 4 Preview

9/22/11 8 PM ET

NC State at Cincinnati

RB Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati) #23

The senior running back rushed for 1029 yards and 6 touchdowns on 157 carries in 2010 and currently projects as a mid round pick in 2012. He’s a decent pass catcher with 26 catches in 2010, but he plays out of a weird scheme and doesn’t have great size at 5-10 200. He doesn’t have the breakaway speed to make up for it so he seems destined for day 3.

TE George Bryan (NC State) #84

Bryan is in position to take advantage of a weak tight end class. He’s a quality blocker at 6-5 265 and he’s got decent speed in the 4.7s. He’s not the best pass catcher, but he caught 40 balls in 2009 and 35 balls in 2010. If he improves on those numbers in 2011, he could be a day 2 pick.

9/23/11 8 PM ET

UCF at BYU

DT Hebron Fangupo (BYU) #91

An monster at 6-1 330 with an impressive 5.0 40, Fangupo couldn’t get onto the field at USC and transferred to BYU. In 3 games this season, the big man has 7 tackles, 3 for a loss, and is gaining late round consideration. He’ll need to keep that up, however, because his age, 26 years old, could turn a lot of teams off late in the draft.

OT Matt Reynolds (BYU) #70

A left tackle at BYU, but projects as a right tackle or even a guard at the next level. He’s not very athletic and his height, 6-4, suggests guard. At 322 pounds, he’s a monster as a run blocker, but needs to work on his form and his lateral quickness in pass protection. He’s also 24 because he spent 2 years on as a Mormon missionary. He projects as a day 2 pick.

9/24/11 12 PM ET

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina) #90

Robert Quinn was a candidate for the #1 overall pick in 2011, before a season long suspension. He eventually went 14th. Quinn’s replacement at end at North Carolina was Quinton Coples. Coples, who had 5 sacks as a rotational player in 2009, burst onto the scene with 10 sacks in his first year as a starter in 2010. At 6-6 280 with 4.7 speed, Coples figures to be the first defensive player off the board in this April’s NFL draft and could challenge Matt Kalil to be the first non-quarterback taken if he keeps this up. He has 2 sacks in 2 games so far this season, all while providing a huge force against the run.

WR Dwight Jones (North Carolina) #83

The massive Dwight Jones has not yet become a popular projected first round pick, but after 62 catches for 946 yards and 4 scores in 2010, the 6-5 Jones already has 20 catches for 336 yards and 4 scores in 3 games this season. He had 5 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown last week against Virginia, abusing potential first round pick cornerback Chase Minnifield. Even more impressive, he’s doing this with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. He has 4 of his school’s 5 receiving touchdowns and almost half of their receiving yards. If he keeps this up, he’ll be a first rounder.

 

9/24/11 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M

WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) #81

Justin Blackmon is in a battle with South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery to be the first receiver off the board in 2012. Jeffery is bigger and succeeding despite not having an elite quarterback, but there’s something to be said for a guy like Blackmon who catches everything in sight. The 6-1 210 pound Blackmon had 111 catches for 1782 yards and 20 scores last year, despite missing one game. He had at least 100+ yards in every game. He already has 27 catches for 329 yards and 3 scores this season, but he’s coming off a mere 57 yard effort against Tulsa last week. Alshon Jeffery is disappointing a bit this year, so Blackmon has the opportunity to overtake him on the totem pole.

WR Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M) #8

Fuller is another first round caliber receiver. He so far hasn’t broken out this season, with just 11 catches for 131 yards and no touchdowns in 2 games, but he’s still got the ability to have a break out game at any time. The 6-4 Fuller had 72 catches for 1066 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2010.

9/24/11 7 PM ET

Vanderbilt at South Carolina

CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) #5

Once seen as the 2nd best cornerback in this draft class after Dre Kirkpatrick, Gilmore is slipping a bit in recent weeks. In his 3rd year as a starter, the AP All-American 3rd teamer as a sophomore in 2010 needs a good game this week to regain his status as the #2 cornerback in this class. LSU’s Morris Claiborne is a rising prospect who could overtake him.

WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) #1

Alshon Jeffery had 89 catches for 1517 yards and 9 scores in 2010 despite inconsistent quarterback play. The 6-3 receiver has been compared to Larry Fitzgerald, but he’s struggled a bit this season with 12 catches for 212 yards and a score. After a mere 2 catches against Navy last week, Jeffery needs a good game this week against Vanderbilt, who possesses a day 2 prospect in Casey Hayward at cornerback.

9/24/11 10:15 PM ET

USC at Arizona State

QB Matt Barkley (USC) #7

Matt Barkley was billed as a future #1 overall pick out of High School. Barkley has lived up to the hype, but likely won’t be the #1 pick because of Andrew Luck. Improving again in his 3rd season as a starter, Barkley, the first true freshman starting quarterback in USC history, has completed 69% of his passes for an average of 7.7 per attempt, and 9 touchdowns to 1 interception.

S TJ McDonald (USC) #7

McDonald, a big strong safety with great triangle numbers with 6-3 205, is similar to another former USC safety, Taylor Mays. He had 89 tackles and 3 picks last year, but inconsistent play in coverage has him probably looking at being a day 2 pick. This is a weak safety class, however, so he could be drafted in the first out of desperation.

 

Week 4 Power Rankings

()= Last week’s rank 

32(32). Buffalo Bills 0-3

Well the move to Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have paid off as Fitz threw for 6 more yards and led the team to 13 more points than Trent Edwards had in their first 2 games. Unfortunately for the Bills, Tom Brady can light up any defense that’s not the Jets and the Bills still lost 38-30. Fortunately for the Bills, their defense won’t be facing Tom Brady every week and thus won’t be giving up 38 points every week. Unfortunately for the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t be able to face the Patriots cupcake defense every week. Also unfortunately for the Bills, they are one of just 5 0-3 teams and with their next 5 opponents a combined 11-4 right now, the future doesn’t look too much brighter.

The Bills have made a lot of questionable decisions in the recent months. Whether or not you agree with their decision to use a the #9 pick on a running back, when their running game was the team’s strength and the offensive line and quarterback position were in shambles, you have to be confused by the fact that they aren’t using him. Spiller has received 12 carries in 3 games. Like I predicted, thanks to their lack of a good offensive line and a good quarterback, the talented Spiller only has 38 yards, a 3.2 YPA.

Also, in a mere three weeks, this team went from saying that Trent Edwards was their guy to outright releasing Trent Edwards. They couldn’t have learned that much in Edwards’ 52 attempts this season that they didn’t already know from his previous 826 attempts (no arm strength, no idea how to lead a drive, no willingness to throw down field). Why did they cut him now, after having to pay him a roster bonus as well as two weeks’ salary, rather than cutting him in the early offseason?

Actually, tying this point in with the last point, why didn’t they just draft a quarterback at 9? Or 41? Jimmy Clausen was there at 41. This is the same Jimmy Clausen that looked halfway decent for the Panthers in his first career start against an amazing Cincinnati defense, despite not having any offensive line in front of him, despite having a suddenly moronic John Fox calling the shots on the sidelines, and despite not having a single receiver capabale of creating separation between him and his man.

31(30). Cleveland Browns 0-3

Are the Browns better than they look? After all, they haven’t lost by more than double digits yet this season and actually looked decent hanging with the Ravens last week in a 7 point loss. I’d say defensively, they are underrated. That defense is better than most think. However, offensively they are miserable, especially through the air. Their receiving corps are probably the worst in the NFL and Seneca Wallace is not even one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL today. How Peyton Hillis ran for a huge day against Baltimore’s defense and a stacked box is beyond me, but I doubt he can keep that up. That’s the only reason why they weren’t blown out at Baltimore. And the reason they weren’t blown out in their first two games is because they were playing the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

30(28). Detroit Lions 0-3

The injury bug has not been kind to the Lions this year. First it blew up Matt Stafford’s shoulder (well technically Julius Peppers, who Jeff Backus attempted to block, did) and now Jahvid Best, hailed as the heir to Barry Sanders after his amazing week 2, has gone down with an injured toe. Laugh all you want, toe injuries can be deadly to running backs. They can absolutely sap their explosiveness in the way an ankle or a hamstring injury would. In fact, if not for Best’s injury, they might have beaten the Vikings last week. It’s not like Brett Favre was playing well, even Lions the Packers miserable secondary. Between Stafford’s injury, Best’s injury, and that touchdown that wasn’t by Calvin Johnson week 1, the Lions are my pick for the unluckiest team in the league this year. I guess the football gods couldn’t stand to see the Lions with a good record, as they could easily be 2-1 so far with some luck.

29(25). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-2

Can you even call what the Jaguars have a defense?  In addition to ranking 24th against the run, something they were attempting to improve by drafting Tyson Alualu #10 overall in April, the Jaguars are dead last against the pass, giving up 9.9 yards per attempt (almost a first down every time the other team throws). I didn’t think their secondary could be worse than it was last season, but it has somehow managed to be. And with Peyton Manning coming into town this week, that’s a bad sign. The only reason the Jaguars have stood a chance against the Colts in recent years (2 double digit losses in their last 16 meetings) is because the Jaguars frequently have a strong running game, which has been the achilles heel of the Colts defense since as long as I can remember. However, with Maurice Jones Drew hurt and struggling, they don’t stand a chance this week. In fact, until MJD is right, this team is going to have to rely on David Garrard (or even worse, recent pickup Trent Edwards) to make plays downfield enough to compensate for this defense. They aren’t going to beat a lot of teams that way.

28(26). Oakland Raiders 1-2

Earlier I talked about how the football gods couldn’t stand to see the Lions with a good record. Something similar is happening in Oakland. Some teams are just supposed to be bad. The Raiders solidified their defense this offseason and finally got a competent quarterback. 2 weeks later, they had to bench Jason Campbell for Bruce Gradkowski. 3 weeks later they sit at 1-2 (despite early games against St. Louis and Arizona) and their defense is allowing the 9th most points in the league (again, despite early games against St. Louis and Arizona). They would have been 2-1, but Sebastian Janikowski missed a chip shot that most high schoolers could hit, to end the game. It’s ok, though, he’s a kicker. They’re notoriously inconsistent. That’s why you don’t use first round picks on them…oh wait.

27(29). Arizona Cardinals 2-1

A lesson can be learned from the Cardinals this year. Even if you lose half of your team in the offseason, you can still start the season 2-1 if you have early season games against the Rams and Raiders. Don’t buy into this team at all. They beat those 2 miserable teams by a combined 5 points and should have lost to the Raiders if it wasn’t for that missed field goal. In their other game, they lost to the Falcons by 34. Those are the real Cardinals.

The sad thing is, with the early season Chargers, the Seahawks (twice), the Buccaneers, the not really as good as their record says Chiefs, the Panthers, the 49ers (twice), and the Broncos on their schedule this season, they could win this division. If they go 4-5 in those games (not completely crazy) and get a fluke win in one of their other 4 games, they could win this division and go to the playoffs. Imagine that. Derek Anderson in the playoffs. Gotta love the NFC West.

26(23). Carolina Panthers 0-3

Considering he’s a rookie, it’s his 3rd career week in the NFL, it was his first start, it was against a Bengals defensive squad that made Joe Flacco look like Kyle Boller, his coach has suddenly become a moron who can’t create a successful game plan, his receivers have no idea how to get open, his center has no idea how to snap a football, and his offensive line can’t pass block or run block, and he had a good 5 days of working with the first team to get prepared, Clausen’s 16 for 33 for 188 yards and a pick performance wasn’t terrible. Maybe if this team gets themselves together, they can actually win a few games. Clausen is going to have more time with the first team in the coming weeks, meaning more time with his receivers, his line, and figuring out how to hold onto a crummy snap by center Andrew Crummey. Their rookie receivers, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, will continue to mature. Maybe John Fox will remember how to write a game plan.

Note to John Fox, the strength of your offense is your running game, not your passing game, so I have no idea why they have passed 92 times to 81 runs this season and I’m not just saying that as a frustrated Jonathan Stewart fantasy owner.

25(27). Denver Broncos 1-2

Did Kyle Orton shoot up with steroids this offseason? His arm strength is much improved from last season. In fact, he threw for more yards last week than John Elway ever did in a single week. They still lost, but that’s not really his fault. It’s not his fault they can’t run or stop Peyton Manning. Actually no one can stop Peyton Manning, but you get the point. In 3 games, Kyle Orton has a YPA of 8.6, 2.2 higher than his career average and 1.6 career than his career high, a 66.4% completion percentage, up 7.9 points from his career average and 4.3 from his career high, a QB rating of 96.4, 18.8 points higher than average and 10.6 points higher than his career high, and 1078 yards, good for 2nd most in the league. If only he had some help.

24(31). St. Louis Rams 1-2

The Rams won their first home game since October of 2008 and just like their last home victory, it was a surprise upset of an NFC East team (Cowboys in 2008 and Redskins in 2010) deemed significantly better than them. The Rams hope what happened in 2008 afterwards, they won again the next week, happens again this year, and with the travel challenged Seahawks (3-14 on the road since 2008, 6-19 since 2007) coming to town, that’s possible. In the horrible NFC West, that win might be enough to put them at least in a tie for 1st place. Gotta love the NFC West.

The rest of the NFL should look at St. Louis as an example of what to do when you suck. If you suck and your quarterback sucks, draft a new quarterback. Quarterback challenged teams like Cleveland, Seattle, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Minnesota should take note. Obviously don’t reach for a quarterback that didn’t grade out well with you, but if you scout a kid and bring him in for a workout and you’ve determined that’s he’s got the potential to be a top 10 or top 15 quarterback in the league, take him. You won’t win a Super Bowl without a top 10 or top 15 quarterback. Sam Bradford looks on track to become one of those quarterbacks.

23(21). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Last week I said this team could win 7 or 8 games and put themselves in good position to make the leap back into the playoffs in 2011 because Josh Freeman looked for real at quarterback. After Freeman’s 20 for 31 for 184 yards and a pick against Pittsburgh last week, my stance remains unchanged. The Steelers are that tough of a defense, especially on your quarterbacks. Is Matt Ryan bad because he went 27 of 44 for 252 yards and a pick week 1 against Pittsburgh. The 40 for 62 for 453 yards 5 picks and 0 picks he’s thrown since then would beg to differ. How about Vince Young, who went 7 for 10 for 66 yards and 2 picks and got benched against Pittsburgh. Young has gone 23 for 33 for 274 yards 3 touchdowns and 0 picks in his other 2 games, both of them, like Ryan’s, were wins. Freeman has a tough matchup against Cincinnati week 5, after his bye, and then New Orleans week 6 but after that, except him to get back on track against St. Louis, Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, and San Francisco. He’s a good quarterback and with a good year he’ll be knocking on top 15, can win a Super Bowl with the right supporting cast, status.

22(24). Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

For the first week this year, I can’t say the Chiefs won in spite of Matt Cassel. Sure his 16 for 27 for 250 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 interception performance, in a 31-10 win over San Francisco, was aided by San Francisco’s miserable secondary and suddenly miserable pass rush, but he play well. If he continues to do that, this team is going to be a legitimate threat to San Diego in the division, but I need to see him continue to do that before I can call them any more than a 7 or 8 win team.

And as for the Todd Haley for Coach of the Year talk, I think it’s extremely premature and extremely off. This is the coach who’s not even using his best player as a starter, at least best offensive player (Brandon Flowers has moved into the team’s best overall player spot in my mind). Jamaal Charles once again outgained Thomas Jones despite getting fewer touches, something he’s done every week of this season and something he did last season as well, when Jones was in New York.

21(22). Seattle Seahawks 2-1

The Seahawks are proving once again that they are a great home team, winning two games in impressive fashion at home so far. However, they do need to win on the road too. This team is 3-14 on the road since 2008. Also, they aren’t going to get two amazing kick return touchdowns from Leon Washington every week, so they’re going to need to find a different way to get points for the future. They’re 1-2 without Washington’s returns. Also, they’ve been lucky enough to not face any teams with an elite pass rush. Matt Hasselbeck is really going to struggle against an elite pass rush.

20(10). San Francisco 49ers 0-3

I can’t remember the last time I picked a 0-3 team to win their division. Think about it, Seattle and Arizona are both 2-1, but are either of those teams actually that good. St. Louis is 1-2, but can you really pick the Rams to win this division. That leaves the 49ers, who sit a mere 2 games out. If they fix some of their mental mistakes and actually get their plays called in time, they could still be a good team. I’m not liking what I’ve seen out of their defense at all, with their poor secondary and suddenly mediocre pass rush, but Alex Smith is actually playing decent overall, when you consider the play calling and the issues with getting plays called in team.

I do have to say I love the NFC West. Think about it, either Alex Smith, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, or Sam Bradford are going to the playoffs this year, that is unless of course, Smith is benched for David Carr, Derek Anderson is benched for Max Hall, or Matt Hasselbeck is benched for Charlie Whitehurst. The NFC West also single handedly made me change my Power Rankings format. I used to have to make sure that all projected division winners would be in the top 10, to fit the title I used for each section (playoffs and maybe more, dark horses, etc) but I couldn’t put San Fran, my projected NFC West winner, or really any NFC West team, in the top 10 this week, so I changed it up and got rid of categories.

Finally, I’d like to say that the 49ers don’t need to make any drastic changes. Yes, Jimmy Raye needed to go. This were right in firing him. However, Mike Singletary is a good coach. How will firing him help? Who are they going to hire instead? I also don’t agree the calls for Alex Smith to be benched. I don’t know if anyone has had a more unlucky to start to his career, whether it be injuries, a bad offensive line, a revolving door of o-coordinators, or to start this season, an o-coordinator who can’t get the plays off in time. He’s had less of a chance than David Carr to prove himself, and just as bad luck. Let him play out the year and if he struggles and they miss the playoffs, draft another quarterback. Carr isn’t going to be the longterm answer anyway.

19(21). Philadelphia Eagles 2-1

How are people considering Michael Vick a top 5 quarterback right now? He wasn’t even a top 5 quarterback before he went to jail. He’s had 2 good starts against crappy defenses (Detroit and Jacksonville) and two strong quarters in garbage time against a Green Bay team who he caught off guard. Even so, a 61% completion percentage and a YPA of 8.4 are already amazing stats, especially for two easy games. Kevin Kolb went 24 for 34 for 302 yards and 2 scores against the Chiefs last year. Why isn’t he a top 5 NFL quarterback? I expect Vick to struggle more this week against the Redskins, who have a decent, but not terrible defense.

18(8). Washington Redskins 1-2

Before the Redskins’ game with the Rams last week, I saw the tiny spread in favor of the Redskins and jumped on it, over the lowly Rams, who were 6-43 in their last 49 before that. However, the Rams won. I think the reasoning for that was that the Redskins were tired. They played their hearts out in a loss in overtime to the Texans, a devastating loss that at one point they dominated. McNabb had Philadelphia circled on his schedule next, going home to face the team that discarded him, and he simply paid no attention or at least no respect to the Rams. And he lost. This just goes to show that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

17(9). New York Giants 1-2

My prediction, Tom Coughlin will be fired either during this season or directly after it. This is a talented team. They just aren’t playing well. A lot of that has to do with Eli Manning, who has suddenly transformed from Super Bowl winning game manager to 6 interception in 3 games gunslinger, and not the good kind of gunslinger. However, the blame is going to fall on Coughlin. Coughlin’s been there a while and it may just be team for a chance of voice.

You also can’t underestimate what the loss of former defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has meant to this team. Their once Super Bowl winning pass rush has been bottom of the barrel in terms of sacks since Spagnuolo, now Rams coach, left.

16(18). Minnesota Vikings 1-2

They may have won last week against the Lions by 14, but they’re issues are hardly behind them. Brett Favre’s performance, 23 for 34 for 201 yards a touchdown and 2 picks, against Detroit is hardly impressive. This offense needs to get themselves together in the bye week otherwise they’re not making the playoffs. The defense is playing well, much better than their much hyped offensive unit, giving up a total of 38 points in 3 games. But their offense, outside of Adrian Peterson, isn’t doing anything. They need to get themselves ready for the rest of the season during the bye week. They won’t be woken out of their bye rest easily, facing the Jets, Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots (4 playoff teams from 2009) in consecutive weeks.

 

15(16). Cincinnati Bengals 2-1

Anyone else noticing how bad Carson Palmer is? Palmer has a 57% completion percentage for a YPA of 5.8, with 3 touchdowns and 3 picks, but really 5 picks as two were dropped against Baltimore. And it’s not like he can blame his supporting cast anymore. The line is playing surprisingly well, keeping defenders out of his face. He’s also been sacked 3 times. His receiving corps are stacked with guys like Ochocinco, TO, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham. Cedric Benson is an extremely talented back, though he doesn’t look it as opponents can stack the box against him. It’s pathetic for Palmer when you have Ocho and TO on your side and you still can’t make the defense fear your long game enough to keep the men out of the box. And it’s not like he’s facing amazing defenses. Other than Baltimore, he’s faced New England (who gave up 30 points to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Palmer’s former backup, last week), and Carolina. I don’t expect him to be much better against Cleveland’s underrated squad this week.

Luckily for him, this defense is awesome, so they can still realistically carry him to the playoffs, though not likely. With the exception of those 38 points they gave up to New England, they have given up 17 points in 2 games, all while generating a mere 3 sacks. That just goes to show how awesome Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph are at cornerback. A decent quarterback, with all of those weapons I named on offense, and this amazing defensive squad, should be able to win 11 with this team. Palmer will be lucky to win 9.

14(15). Miami Dolphins 2-1

I’m moving the Dolphins up 1 slot even after their loss, because Chad Henne finally proved, for the first time this season, that he could make things happen downfield with his cannon for an arm, if necessary. I’m guessing the reason we didn’t see it in the first 2 weeks was because it was unnecessary. Chad Henne threw for 363 yards on 26 for 44 for 2 scores and a pick against New York’s defense week 3, in a loss. Yeah, this is a watered down Jets defense (no Kris Jenkins, no Darrelle Revis, no Calvin Pace), but they’re still a very solid squad. You saw what they did to Tom Brady week 2. And you saw what Tom Brady did to the Bengals and Bills weeks 1 and 3.

However, the defense has gone south at the wrong time. Allowing 31 points to the Jets’ offense is bad. Even the Patriots didn’t do that (28). I had some concerns about this defense going into the season. Their secondary was secretly awful last season (31st in the league) and was starting 3 players who had less than 2 years of experience this season. After cutting their top two pass rushers for 2009, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, I wondered if they’d be able to create enough pressure to mask their secondary’s weaknesses. Their 6 sacks aren’t horrible, but allowing 402 yards to the Jets is not a good sign, especially having to face Tom Beiber…er Brady next week.

13(17). Tennessee Titans 2-1

Vince Young is not bad. Vince Young has had a good season, with the exception of that Pittsburgh game. At the same time, Josh Freeman has had a good season, with the exception of that Pittsburgh game. Same with Matt Ryan. Vince will be fine going forward and this team, when he’s right, is capable of making the playoffs. Remember, Vince is 10-3 as starter since he took over mid last season. He’s had help from this defense, this offensive line, and someone named Chris Johnson, but he still has all of those assets on his side this season so he and his team should be fine.

12(13). Baltimore Ravens 2-1

I think we can forgive Joe Flacco rough early season start. Weeks 1 and 2 he was 37 for 77 for 402 yards 1 touchdown and 6 picks, but he was facing two playoff teams from 2009, the Jets and Bengals, whose strengths are their defenses, with 6 days to prepare in between, on the road. In better conditions, across the Browns, Flacco threw for 3 scores, no picks, on 22 for 31 for 262 yards. Now he faces Pittsburgh. Actually, that just doesn’t sound fair.

11(5). San Diego Chargers 1-2

It’s tough to tell whether or not this team just sucks because it’s early in the season and they always suck early in the season or whether they actually just suck. They better hope it’s the former, because the Chiefs already have a 2 game lead and own the tiebreaker. In a way, this reminds me of last year, when the Broncos surprisingly jumped out to a 6-0 record early, and the Chargers sat at 2-3, and the Chargers still won that division by 5 games, but I’d still be concerned if I were a Chargers fan. They’ve let a lot of good players go in recent years that they simply haven’t replaced and they haven’t made a good draft pick early since they drafted Antonio Cromartie in 2006.

10(12). Dallas Cowboys 1-2

The Cowboys finally looked like the team they were supposed to be, beating a good Texans team in impressive fashion. Unlike the Vikings, who also got a win to avoid an 0-3 start, the Cowboys actually looked good doing so and have instilled hope in me once again that this team can make the playoffs. It took them a while though. Between their 5 preseason games and those two regular season losses, they essentially had a 7 game warm up period. Let’s hope for their sake they stay strong for the rest of the way because they can still make the playoffs. That 0-2 start didn’t doom them to anything if they play well in their next 13 games.

9(11). New York Jets 2-1

Every week Mark Sanchez has a good game, it makes me believe more and more that this team can win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately he’s only so I’m not that high on this team as a Super Bowl contender. However, a talented quarterback was the missing ingredient to their Super Bowl formula before the season and now it appears that Sanchez is well on his way to being that top 15, top 10 quarterback that all Super Bowl winners need. Remember, only one quarterback in the past 20 years has won a Super Bowl, before making a Pro Bowl, and that was Eli Manning in 2008, who made the Pro Bowl the following year. Interpretation, you don’t win a Super Bowl without a good quarterback. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson get ragged on as being the worst quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the past 20 years, but both of them had made Pro Bowls before hoisting the trophy.

8(7). New England Patriots 2-1

Their offense is really good. Their defense is really bad. Until one of those things changes, this team is a playoff team, but nothing else. Tom Brady has proven he can light up any defense that isn’t the Jets’. The Pats defense has proven that they’d have a hard time holding Boston College under 30. I mean they couldn’t hold the Bills under 30. What makes you think they could hold a college team under 30?

7(19). Chicago Bears 3-0

Their 3-0 start has had a lot to do with luck, but it’s not been all luck. Yes, if a few things had gone differently, they could realistically be 0-3 or 1-2, but look at how they are playing. If you’re a running back, you might as well take the day off against them. You’re not getting many yards. This run defense, this defensive line, and especially this pass rush, led by Julius Peppers, has been amazing. Peppers may only have 1 sack (week one when you blew up Matt Stafford’s shoulder), but if it wasn’t for all the holds he caused the Green Bay Packers offensive line to commit to stop him, he might have 3 or 4 sacks easily. He’s that tough to stop.

The defensive line and the front 7 have proven, no Tommie Harris, coach’s decision, no problem as they are holding opponents to under 3 yards per carry anyway. A big part of their strong and improved run defense is the return of Brian Urlacher. Despite his age and his injury from 2009, he is still as scary as ever.

While the defense is traditional Bears defense, the offense is far from traditional Bears offense. And I don’t just mean that because they finally appear to have a capable signal caller. I mean that because they aren’t traditional at all. They give up sacks. They throw interceptions. But they get the job done with big plays and they are 3-0, thanks in large part, to their 66 points. I don’t have them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, as they’ve only won their 3 games by a combined 15 points and could easily be 1-2 or 0-3, but maybe in the future I will consider them that.

6(4). Houston Texans 2-1

All good things must come to an end and that includes Houston’s amazing and inspiring start to the season. Forever cast aside as a team that couldn’t make the playoffs and couldn’t beat the colts, the Texans started the season by beating the Colts by over a touchdown and then mounting an amazing comeback to beat the Redskins in overtime, despite trailing, at one point, by multiple scores. They couldn’t continue that week 3 against the Cowboys, but it’s definitely not panicking team. That was a good Cowboys team they lost to. They can get back on track this week versus the Raiders.

5(14). Atlanta Falcons 2-1

Beating the Saints in the Super Dome was like their Super Bowl. It’ll be interesting what kind of energy they play with next week, whether they come up energized or complacent, with the 0-3 49ers coming into town. However, I’m not here to talk about that game. I’m going to talk about that win. That win cemented the Falcons as an elite team in this league and possibly the favorite in the NFC South. The season is early and I don’t want to take the NFC South title away from the Saints just yet, especially considering, if they made that late kick from about 30 yards out, the Saints would have won that game, but the Falcons are definitely a team to fear now.

4(3). New Orleans Saints 2-1

The Saints have been beaten in a close game at the Superdome. They are no longer invincible. They have yet to go over 30 points in a game. They could be suffered a Super Bowl hangover. Garrett Hartley, last year’s hero, has lost his starting job after missing 3 field goals in his first three games, including the game winner against Atlanta in overtime, a chip shot. This isn’t the same team that won it all last year. They can get it together and become that team, especially once Darren Sharper returns, but the Falcons have made them bleed and made them appear human, and once that happens, the floodgates could open.

3(2). Indianapolis Colts 2-1

Running game? Nope. Pass protection? Nope. Pass defense? Nope. Run defense? Nope Healthy receiving corps? Nope. Peyton Manning? Yep. And really that’s all they’ve needed this season to start 2-1. Their running game, supposed to be one of their best in the Peyton Manning era with both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown healthy, is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has yet to have a carry that went for more than 17 yards. That offensive line has looked fine on paper, only giving up 3 sacks. However, any other quarterback behind that line is sacked 6-7 times. Peyton Manning is just that robotic at getting the ball out of his hands right before the pressure gets there. Their pass defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempts and just allowed Kyle Orton to throw for more yards than John Elway ever did. Their run defense is giving up 5 yards per carry. Their receiving corps are missing both Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. However, Peyton Manning is still 2-1. He’s feeling the pressure well enough to avoid an extra 3 or 4 sacks. He’s finding receivers such as Austin Collie and undrafted rookie Blair White for big games. And he’s making the opponent’s pass defense look worse than his team’s and that’s really the key.

2(1). Green Bay Packers 2-1

I wouldn’t be surprised if Chad Clifton is still holding Julius Peppers. Coming into this season I remarked on the fact that this offensive line only gave up 14 sacks in their last 8 games last year and cited that as a big reason why they would win the Super Bowl this year. Rodgers has only been sacked 3 times this year, but this offensive line committed enough penalties to single handedly nullify Rodgers’ 34 for 45 for 316 yards 1 touchdown and 1 pick (on a Hail Mary from mid field to end the half) performance. They’ll need to fix that if they’re going all the way this season.

1(6). Pittsburgh Steelers 3-0

How good are the Steelers? Their first 3 opponents are 6-0 in games not played against the Steelers, and 0-3 against the Steelers. Their first 3 opponents’ quarterbacks are a combined 92 for 147 for 1085 yards 12 touchdowns and 1 pick in games not played against the Steelers and a combined 54 for 85 for 504 yards no touchdowns and 4 picks. Thev’ye held Michael Turner to 48 yards. They’ve held Chris Johnson to 34 yards. They just won a game in which they scored 28 points and had their once 4th string quarterback start. They are really, really, really, really good, and Ben Roethlisberger isn’t even back yet. If they can mesh quickly when Ben comes back, this is a legit 13-3 team that can run the table once again.

 

Week 4 Pickups

Listed in order they should be picked up

WR Brandon Lloyd- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN):  12.8%

Not sure why no one’s picking him up, but for the 3rd straight game Lloyd has had a strong game, catching 6 balls for 169 yards and a score, and he’s actually now 2nd in the league in receiving behind (of all people) Austin Collie. He has 339 yards and a score this season and appears to be the Broncos #1 receiver, even with the emergence of rookie Demaryius Thomas.

TE Aaron Hernandez- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.3%

For the 2nd straight game, Hernandez led the Patriots in receiving yards. Brady loves to spread it around so his production won’t be consistent, but with Kevin Faulk out, the Patriots are going to be looking to their tight ends over the middle of the field more often. Hernandez has proven over the last 2 weeks that he’s a better pass catcher than Rob Gronkowski.

WR Josh Cribbs- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.2%

With Brian Robiskie out with an injury, kick returning extraordinaire Cribbs got the start at wide receiver and caught 5 balls for 58 yards, in addition to his two carries for 20 yards. The Browns are struggling for offense so they would be smart to keep putting the ball in this guy’s hands, whether it be as a receiver, or on an end around, or as a wildcat, in addition to his normally kick returning duties. This means that Cribbs could finally start putting up legitimate fantasy points in league others than ones that count kick returns.

RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.9%

In the wake of Maroney’s trade to Denver, the man with 4 names (Ben, Jarvus, Green, Ellis) is getting a large increase in carries. BJGE will, of course, give carries to all of New England’s other backs and the Patriots love to mix it up in their backfield so he won’t be consistent, but after running for 98 yards on 16 carries week 3, and getting 10 carries before that week 2, BJGE looks like a solid fantasy option, especially if Fred Taylor’s injury is serious.

 

RB Kenneth Darby- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

With Steven Jackson going down early with a groin injury, Darby had 57 yards on 15 touches and a score against Washington. If Jackson’s injury is serious, as speculation suggests it is, Darby would be the lead back in St. Louis.

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

With Larry Johnson and Willie Parker gone, Torain is the favorite to get carries behind Clinton Portis/steal Portis’ job when the Broncos realize Portis is ancient. Torain was drafted by Mike Shanahan in Denver and then brought to Washington with him so it’s obvious that Shanahan likes this kid. Torain actually led the team in rushing with 46 yards against the Rams week 3. He could be their lead back soon. He’s worth a pickup in deep leagues and he’s someone to keep your eye on in normal leagues.

RB LeGarrette Blount- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Blount led the Bucs in rushing yards with 27 and in rushing attempts with 6 against Pittsburgh. He also scored a touchdown and got the goal line looks at 6-0 247. Stash him in deep leagues as he could become the new lead man in Tampa soon.

RB John Kuhn- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.8%

Kuhn has led the Packers in rushing yards in each of the last two weeks, with Ryan Grant and James Starks out and Brandon Jackson stinking up the joint. The only problem, his rushing totals over the past two weeks, 36 and 31. The Packers simply don’t run the ball much. They didn’t with Ryan Grant and they certainly don’t when they don’t trust the running game. One of these weeks they may run the ball a lot and Kuhn would be the one to benefit from that most, and Kuhn also gets the goal line carries, which is huge in an offense like Green Bay’s.

 

Week 4 Picks

Last week overall: 8-8

Last week ATS: 7-9 (-320/-7%)

Overall picks: 28-20

ATS Picks: 21-24-3 (-930/-7%)

Lock picks: 2-1

Upset picks: 3-2

Sports Betting FAQ 

San Francisco 20 Atlanta Falcons 23

Spread: -7 Falcons

Pick against spread: 49ers 2 units (+200)

The Falcons just won an emotional contest, against their rival Saints, in emotional fashion. They got so geared up for that game and had to go all out to win, that I doubt they’ll be 100% in it to play the 0-3 49ers this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, are desperate they need a win. All that being said, Atlanta is simply the superior team. Matt Ryan should pick apart this 49ers’ secondary, the way Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, and Matt Cassel, yes even Matt Cassel, did before him. It’ll be closer than the public expects, but I’ve got the Falcons winning in a close one, but failing to cover.

New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 12

Spread: -6 Jets

Pick against spread: Jets 3 units (+300)

The Bills scored 30 points last week, 11 more than they did in the previous 2 weeks combined. However, they were playing the Patriots. Now they get the Jets. Good luck with that. The Bills aren’t going to score very much in this one. I’d say no more than 17 points. Mark Sanchez has led this offense to 59 points in the last two weeks combined against the Patriots and Dolphins. He should be able to lead his team to enough points to win this one and win it by more than that 6 point spread.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Cleveland Browns 12 2 units

Spread: -3 Bengals

Pick against spread: Bengals 2 units (-220)

Carson Palmer isn’t a very good quarterback. He doesn’t have the arm strength to scare defenses and open up running lanes for Cedric Benson. That being said, he does have an amazing defense behind him. You saw what they did to Jimmy Clausen and Joe Flacco. Imagine what they’ll do to Seneca Wallace. It’s not going to take a lot of points for the Bengals to win this one, especially against an average at best Cleveland stop unit. I think Palmer will get it done and cover that mysterious tiny spread.

Detroit Lions 19 Green Bay Packers 31 1 unit

Spread: -14 ½ Packers

Pick against spread: Lions 1 unit (+100)

Taking a team against a spread of more than 2 touchdowns when it just lost last week and is coming off a shortened week thanks to a Monday Night game is really risky. The Packers lost the game for themselves last week, but are still a great offensive unit. However, Ndamukong Suh could possibly cause the same sort of trouble for Green Bay’s offensive line that Julius Peppers and the Bears did on Monday Night. This Detroit defensive line is great and completely revamped. That’ll take some of the pressure off of their miserable secondary as they try to stop the aerial attack of Aaron Rodgers and company. They’re not going to win this, but I’ll take the Lions given 14.5 points.

Denver Broncos 16 Tennessee Titans 30

Spread: -7 Titans

Pick against spread: Titans 3 units (-330)

The Broncos stink against the run. Now they have to stop Chris Johnson. Good luck with that. I think there’s a very reasonable chance CJ2K goes over 200 yards in this one and that’ll be huge for the Titans. This is clearly a run based offense. Vince Young struggles when relied on to create points in the absence of a strong running game. You saw what happened when Pittsburgh held Chris Johnson to 38 yards. They lost. With the exception of that loss, the Titans have two double digit wins so I think they’re still better than given credit for. I’ll take them to beat the overrated Broncos easily.

Seattle Seahawks 13 St. Louis 19 Upset pick

Spread: -1 ½ Seahawks

Pick against spread: Rams 3 units (+300)

The Seahawks are like Jekyll and Hyde home and away. This team is 3-14 since 2008 on the road. They won last week at home on the strength of their home crowd. And also on the strength of two kick return touchdowns. That won’t happen again. Those things are very inconsistent. The Rams won last week and looked good in the process. I expect them to protect their home turf and win in an upset fashion over the Seahawks.

 

Carolina Panthers 16 New Orleans 34

Spread: -14 Saints

Pick against spread: Saints 1 unit (-110)

I know I said it’s almost never a good idea to take a team coming off of a loss against a 2 touchdown spread, but I’m doing it here. This is not an even matchup at all. Drew Brees should finally break the 30 point mark this week against a weak Carolina defense. The only reason he didn’t weeks 2 and 3 is because the other team was able to win the time of possession battle. That won’t happen this week. John Fox no longer knows how to write a game plan and Jimmy Clausen isn’t capable of moving the chains consistently against a defense as complex as the Saints. Last year rookie quarterbacks, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford, all played New Orleans’ defense and all 3 stunk. With the Saints winning the time of possession battle, they’ll break 30 and Jimmy Clausen is going to have a hard time staying with 2 touchdowns of that, with that crappy supporting cast, against that defense.

Baltimore Ravens 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 2 units

Spread: -2 Steelers

Pick against spread: Steelers 2 units (-220)

The Steelers’ first 3 opponents’ quarterbacks are a combined 92 for 147 for 1085 yards 12 touchdowns and 1 pick in games not played against the Steelers and a combined 54 for 85 for 504 yards no touchdowns and 4 picks. Those three quarterbacks, young quarterbacks, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman. Joe Flacco is a young quarterback. Why won’t he struggle? He did it against the Bengals and I expect him to throw interceptions here. Forget having Ray Rice to help him. Even if Rice does play, the Steelers held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson under 50 yards this year. Rice isn’t doing anything this week even if he does play. That’ll make things so much easier for the Pittsburgh offense who will win this close one in a hard fought trench battle.

Houston Texans 28 Oakland Raiders 17

Spread: -3 ½ Texans

Pick against spread: Texans 3 units (+300)

The Texans shouldn’t have any problem running the football against the Raiders. Arian Foster is a great running back and the Raiders can’t stop the run. However, the passing game should be a concern. Andre Johnson either won’t play or will be limited and have Nnamdi Asomugha on him. That means Schaub will have to look to other options. Schaub is a good quarterback, but can he be Peyton Manning and have a strong game in spite of his receivers. Last time the Texans played the Raiders, the Raiders shut down Johnson and won. However, I think this is a more balanced Texans team and a more mature Matt Schaub so I’ll take them to easily outscore the lowly Raiders by more than 4.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Spread: -8 Colts

Pick against spread: Colts 2 units (-220)

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. The Jaguars match up well with the Colts. The Jaguars have lost to the Colts by more than 8 twice in their last 16 meetings. That said, I’m taking the Colts to beat the Jaguars more than 8. The reason the Jaguars have had decent success in the past against the Colts is their running game. The Colts have never been able to stop the run. However, MJD is playing hurt right now. He’s not right. They’re running game shouldn’t strike fear in anyone’s hearts. They’ll run decent, but David Garrard is going to have to make some things happen himself. Peyton Manning might have a perfect passer rating in this game. The Jaguars defense hasn’t stopped anyone through the air since like 2007 (I wish I were exaggerating). Peyton Manning should have a field day and Garrard won’t be able to keep up.

Washington Redskins 24 Philadelphia Eagles 19 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 Eagles

Pick against spread: Redskins 4 units (+400)

The Eagles are vastly overrated right now. Michael Vick played two good quarterbacks in garbage time against a Packer team that wasn’t expecting him and then destroys two crappy defenses like Detroit and Jacksonville and all of a sudden he’s their savior, better than McNabb was, and a top 5 quarterback? I’m not buying it. McNabb is still the much better quarterback here and he has the better supporting cast. The Eagles defense isn’t very good. They never replaced Sheldon Brown opposite Asante Samuel. Even Shaun Hill led his team to 32 points against them. Plus McNabb knows them. He’s practiced against this defense and this scheme was 10 years and when that type of familiarity is there, it normally is in favor of the quarterback, especially if it’s a smart quarterback. Also, McNabb is hungry. He’s secretly pissed at the Eagles and their fans and everyone who has Vick is better than him. Expect him to have a monster game, with the Redskins actually decent defense limiting Vick’s effectiveness through the air, and the Redskins to win. That -6 spread for the Eagles is ridiculous. This should be easy money this week.

Arizona Cardinals 12 San Diego Chargers 31 Lock Pick

Spread: -9 Chargers

Pick against spread: Chargers 2 units (+200)

The Chargers seem to have a home/away Jekyll/Hyde type thing going on as well. They played great at home week 2 against Jacksonville, but lost in Kansas City and Seattle in pathetic fashion. However, they are still a good team. The Cardinals aren’t going to return 2 kickoffs for touchdowns like the Seahawks did. They don’t have anyone like Leon Washington on the roster. This game is in San Diego. They’ll have a more prepared Marcus McNeill this week, after he ended his holdout mid last week. I expect this one to be similar to the Jacksonville game. The Cardinals and Jaguars are similar in that they both suck. I am hesitant to make the Chargers my lock pick this early in the season, but I will anyway. I’m just not putting more than 2 units on this one. The Chargers have burned me before.

Chicago Bears 23 New York Giants 20 Upset pick

Spread: -3 ½ Giants

Pick against spread: Bears 2 units (-220)

I don’t really know what to make of this game, but the Bears have played better than the Giants this season so I see no reason why the Giants should be favored by 3 and a half points. For that reason, it’ll put a small amount on the Bears against the spread, but I think this should be a close one. I don’t have a solid read on the Giants at all. They’re really talented, but playing like crap. The Bears are getting really lucky every week, have a strong run defense and a strong passing game, the team of team the Giants struggle against, so I’ll take them to win.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 26

Spread: – 1 ½ Patriots 

Pick against spread: Patriots 2 units (+200)

The Dolphins defense looked horrible last week allowing 31 to the Jets. Without Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, they are unable to mask their secondaries flaws and teams can rip right through them unless the other team doesn’t have a good quarterback or the Dolphins can win the time of possession battle. The Patriots offense is too good for either of those two things to happen. Chad Henne is still not someone I trust to when a game where he has to out throw the opposing team. They Dolphins best shot is if they can grind it out and take the time of possession battle that way. The Patriots aren’t good against the run and the Dolphins can definitely run, but I’ll go with Brady over Henne here.

 

Week 4 Injury Report

WR Steve Breaston- Arizona

Out

RB Ray Rice- Baltimore

He’s being called a game time decision, but indications are that that game time decision will be a go. However, he’s still a question mark and even if he does play he’ll be doing it with a bad knee against a defense that held Chris Johnson and Michael Turner under 50 yards a piece. I doubt he’ll be very effective if he starts, but if you have no other choice, check back tomorrow morning or follow me on Twitter as I will be tweeting game time decisions Sunday Morning.

RB Cedric Benson- Cincinnati

A sore knee kept him out of Wednesday’s practice, but he practiced the rest of the week and is listed as probable and is expected to go. Start him against the Browns.

WR Josh Cribbs- Cleveland

Cribbs has been taken off of Cleveland’s injury list which means he should play, but he’s not worth a start against Cleveland’s tough defense.

RB Jerome Harrison- Cleveland

Likely to play with a thigh injury, but the Browns are just stupid if they start him over Peyton Hillis after what Hillis did last week. Don’t start him. He is hurt and backup and still a question mark for Sunday, even though he is listed as probable.

RB Knowshon Moreno- Denver

Out.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Out.

RB Jahvid Best- Detroit

After practicing Friday, Best looks like he is going to start Sunday, in fact, he guaranteed it. However, toe injuries can sap a running back’s explosiveness and he is facing a tough Packers run defense, so there may be better options this week.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

Just when he got back to playing full time after ACL surgery, Daniels is likely to miss this week’s game with a hamstring injury.

WR Andre Johnson- Houston

Johnson is going to be a game time call, though he has been getting ready as if he’s playing Sunday. I’d say there’s about a 30% chance he sits, so check back here tomorrow or follow me on Twitter. If he does start, he may still be limited by that injury and by Nnamdi Asomugha who will be guarding him. There may be better options, but at the same time, it’s Andre Johnson.

RB Joseph Addai- Indianapolis

Downgraded from probable to questionable after missing Friday’s practice, a bad sign. You want him in there if he plays against Jacksonville’s crappy defense, but he might not play. Check back tomorrow or follow me on Twitter as it appears he’ll be a game time call.

RB Donald Brown- Indianapolis

Brown hasn’t practiced all week and in all likelihood won’t play Sunday. If both he and Addai don’t play, Mike Hart would get the start against a weak Jacksonville defense.

WR Anthony Gonzalez- Indianapolis

Out.

WR Pierre Garcon- Indianapolis

He hasn’t practiced for two weeks so I would be very surprised to see him play this week.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

He hasn’t practiced all week and Benjarvus Green Ellis is the main guy anyway so don’t start him.

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

He’ll be a game time decision with an ankle injury. You know the drill, check back tomorrow or follow me on Twitter.

WR Mario Manningham- NY Giants

Expected to play as his head injury was not nearly as serious as it once seemed to be.

RB Michael Bush- Oakland

Expected to play, but again he’ll be Darren McFadden’s backup. It might be time to give up on Bush this season.

TE Brent Celek- Philadelphia

He’s been practicing all week with a wrist injury and will play. However, Michael Vick simply isn’t throwing to Celek as McNabb and Kolb would.

RB Ryan Mathews- San Diego

He’s expected to play after practicing in full on Friday.

WR Mike Williams- Seattle

He’s likely to play, but I don’t think he’s really start worthy at all.

RB Steven Jackson- St. Louis

Sjax is a tough player, but he admitted he’s not sure he can play this week. He practiced on a limited basis on Friday so consider him a game time decision. Check back tomorrow or follow me on Twitter.

RB Clinton Portis- Washington

Reports say he will start, but he is losing carries to Ryan Torain so he might not be worth a start for you.

Week 4 Fantasy Report

 

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Lee Evans can’t get on the field with injuries and hasn’t been all that productive when he has been healthy (2 catches in 2 games). Evans was really just keeping the seat warm for Torrey Smith, their 2nd round rookie out of Maryland who they felt couldn’t contribute as a starter right away. I guess they were wrong. Smith had 5 catches for 152 yards and 3 scores in a rout against St. Louis. Those 3 touchdowns were actually all in the first quarter and are more than another former Maryland receiver, Darrius Heyward Bey, has in his entire career (2). This is hilarious for everyone except Raider fans.

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.6%

Kenny Britt is expected done for the season with a torn ACL and MCL in his knee. Nate Washington isn’t a #1 receiver in this league, but by default, he’ll be their top receiver in Britt’s absence. He had 8 catches for 92 yards and a score Sunday after Britt went down.

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Antonio Brown is Ben Roethlisberger’s 2nd favorite target after Mike Wallace. In their last 2 games, Brown has 8 catches for 142 yards. Conversely, Hines Ward has 7 catches for 50 yards. Advantage Brown. This will only continue this season as the 23 year old Brown continues to surpass the 35 year old Ward.

RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

BJGE had 9 carries for the Patriots against Buffalo. Woodhead had 6. Stevan Ridley, their rookie 3rd round pick, had 7. He was much more effective with his carries than any of the other backs, leading the way with 45 yards. The organization is obviously not all that thrilled with BJGE, otherwise they wouldn’t have drafted Ridley, who has a similar skill set. Look for Ridley to get more and more action in future weeks. He’s a nice upside pickup.

 

RB Kendall Hunter (San Francisco)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

Frank Gore has a mere 148 yards on 59 carries in 3 games this season. After a fumble against Cincinnati, Kendall Hunter, their rookie 4th rounder, got most of the work. He rushed for 26 yards and a score on 9 carries. He could continue to eat away at Gore’s carries in the future.

WR Brandon Gibson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.8%

There’s nothing spectacular about Gibson, but Bradford is more comfortable throwing to him than anyone else. He has 12 catches for 157 yards and a score in 3 games this season. If Bradford starts playing better, Gibson’s numbers will go up and St. Louis’ schedule gets easier down the stretch this season.

TE Ed Dickson (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.8%

Flacco likes throwing to Dickson. Dickson has 12 catches for 135 yards and a score in 3 games this season. If you really need a tight end in deep leagues, he could be worth a look.

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Steve Smith is gone. Mario Manningham is hurt. The preseason standout from 2010, Victor Cruz had a huge game against Philadelphia, with 3 catches for 110 yards and a score. He did only receiv 5 targets and Mario Manningham will be back at some point, but there’s upside with Cruz.

WR Michael Jenkins (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

Leslie Frazier seems to be using the Todd Haley strategy of not using your best player. Percy Harvin is the Vikings best offensive player, but he’s only playing about 50-60% of their snaps as their slot receiver. Michael Jenkins is a starter and he’s playing better than Bernard Berrian. He had 11 targets than went for 9 catches for 88 yards against Detroit. Maybe there is something to him.