Subject to change 

9/8/11 8 PM ET

Arizona at Oklahoma State

QB Nick Foles (Arizona) #8

Foles appeared to be putting it all together last year, completing 75.3% of his passes for an average of 8.4 per attempt, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, before a knee injury cost him a couple games. He wasn’t the same after that. He has all the physical tools and a very good shot to continue his early 2010 run in 2011.

QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) #3

A former minor league baseball pitcher, Weeden would be a first round pick if he weren’t turning 28 in October. He completed 66.9% of his passes, for an average of 8.4 yards per attempt, 34 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions last season and has a chance to continue that this year as Justin Blackmon has returned for his redshirt junior season.

9/9/11 7 PM ET

Florida Atlantic at Louisville

WR TY Hilton (Florida International) #4

The 5-10 Hilton runs a 40 in the 4.4s and led FIU in receiving with 59 catches for 848 yards and 5 touchdowns. He also rushed for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns on 30 carries, but if he gets drafted, it’ll be as a kick returner. He returned both a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown last season.

TE Josh Chichester (Louisville) #11

The 6-8 is a former college basketball player and a former wide receiver for the University of Louisville. He needs to bulk up from 240 to become a better blocker, but he can be a serious end zone threat and he caught 22 passes for 317 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2010.

9/9/11 10:30 PM ET

Missouri at Arizona State

TE Michael Egnew (Missouri) #82

Egnew’s 90 catches led all tight ends in 2010 and ranked 11^th overall, including wide receivers. However, that only led to 762 yards, a really low yards per catch average. He isn’t a very good blocker at all and he’s only 240 pounds. It also remains to be seen how he’ll fare without Blaine Gabbert.

DE Jacquies Smith (Missouri) #3

Smith had 5.5 sacks and 10 tackles for a loss last season. The 6-4 255 pound defensive end with legit 4.6 speed will have a chance to shine with Aldon Smith now a member of the 49ers after being drafted 7^th overall.

 

9/10/11 12 PM ET

Florida Atlantic at Michigan State

QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) #8

The big armed pro style quarterback completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 yards per attempt and 20 touchdowns to 10 interceptions last season. He has a chance to make Michigan State a legitimate BCS Bowl team this season and could become a top 10 pick and the 3^rd quarterback off the board in 2011.

S Trenton Robinson (Michigan State) #39

A leader on Michigan State’s defense, Robinson had 4 interceptions and 71 tackles last year. At 5-10 195, he’s undersized for a safety and will probably not be drafted until the late rounds unless he had a great season or can prove he can play corner.

9/10/11 3:30 PM ET

Alabama at Penn State

RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) #3

Mark Ingram’s backup could actually get drafted higher in 2012 than Ingram was drafted in 2011. The 220 pound runner runs in the 4.4s and rushed for 700 yards and 6 touchdowns on 112 carries and also caught 23 passes. He’ll be the lead back this season and if he plays anything like he did against Penn State last year, 22 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown while Ingram was out, he’ll be the first running back off the board and a first round pick.

OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) #41

One of the most versatile linebackers in the country, the 6-2 260 pound Upshaw played inside and outside in Alabama’s 3-4 last season, compiling 52 tackles and 7 sacks. He’s best fit in a 3-4, but theoretically he could play outside linebacker and defensive end in a 4-3.

9/10/11 8 PM ET

Notre Dame at Michigan

MLB Manti Te’o (Notre Dame) #5

Te’o looks like a first round pick at first glance with 129 tackles and 8.5 tackles for a loss in 2010, but we’ve seen linebackers slip before so he’ll need to repeat his strong 2010 season this year.

DE Ryan Van Bergen (Michigan) #53

Van Bergen looks like a 4-3 left end or a 3-4 end in the NFL. He’s not very athletic or a great pass rusher with a 4.9 40 at 6-3 280 and 4 sacks and 8 tackles for a loss in 2010, but he’s very sturdy against the run and is looking like a mid to late round pick at this point.

 

 

 

 

Awful

32. St. Louis Rams 0-1

The Rams are going in the right direction, up, and I’m not just saying that because they can’t possibly go down. I like a lot of what I saw from Sam Bradford in his first NFL start and more importantly I liked how well the line protected him. As we’ve seen with guys like David Carr, and as we may be seeing right now with Matt Stafford, young quarterbacks who aren’t protected by a good line don’t normally pan out, because they become shell shocked or injured.

However, all that being said, they still lost to a lowly Arizona team and they really, overall, didn’t look like a very good team. This team is now 6-43 in its last 49 and hasn’t won a division game, in the weakest division in football, in over 2 years. I can’t see them winning too many games this year.

31. Buffalo Bills 0-1

Bills fans have to be frustrated. They had an opportunities to take quarterbacks and left tackles early in their past draft, but they decided to stick with same old, same old, tried and failed at the two most important positions on a football field and they really didn’t look any better offensively last week than they did all last year. CJ Spiller is a hell of a running back, and guys like Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch can run it well too, but with the way they’re playing at quarterback and the way their offensive lines is playing, those guys aren’t getting anywhere.

 Spiller was shut down last week, because of countless plays that were broken up in the backfield. Opponents defenses can stack the box knowing Edwards absolutely cannot beat them deep and overpower the Bills weak offensive front. Spiller is a speed guy. He needs space. He got no space last week and I don’t see why the rest of the season will be any different.

I was trying to explain why the run first model that the Bills used to a friend of mine wouldn’t work and he brought up the 2000 Ravens. However, the Ravens, did have a quarterback that could beat you deep. Trent Dilfer could beat you deep if you let him, which forced a lot of linebackers to stay away from the line and back into coverage. The Ravens also had a better offensive line in terms of run blocking, that could hold off 8 man boxes long enough. The Ravens’ also had more bruising runners. The Bills’ runners, with the exception of Marshawn Lynch who has fallen out of favor with the team, are all guys who need to work in space and aren’t exceptional between the tackles type runners. They aren’t grind it out backs. The Ravens, lastly, had a better defense which allowed them to win close games. The Bills, while their defense looked very solid against an inconsistent Chad Henne last week, don’t have much better than an average defensive bunch, especially where it matters, on the ground. Teams can get leads on them and grind it out to win it.

Their defense will be able to keep them in some games, but if their backs aren’t getting space to run in and Trent Edwards isn’t throwing more than 5 yards down field, it’s not going to matter if they’re defense can hold the opponent under 20. They won’t be able to score early and their mediocre run defense won’t be able to hold off the opponents running game to get their offense the ball back early.

30. Detroit Lions 0-1

I really hate to say I told you so in this instance because I thought the Lions could have been a sleeper this year, but to all those Lions fans who though Jeff Backus was an adequate blindside protector, I have to wonder what they were thinking. Backus sympathizers will try to say now that it was only one freak play that hurt Stafford’s shoulder and cost him at least 6-8 weeks, but enough is enough. They need to get an actual left tackle in there, who at least have a fighting shot of keeping guys like Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, and Julius Peppers away from Stafford.

Even if Stafford is back by week 10, I still say that injury cost them at least 2 wins this season. Shaun Hill is decent, but doesn’t have anywhere near Stafford’s arm strength. Plus, there’s always the possibility that Stafford just isn’t the same guy when he comes back. After all, shoulder separations are pretty serious. I can only hope that the Lions are going to use this as a learning opportunity and try to get themselves a left tackle this offseason. The only issue is how thin this class is at left tackle, unless someone like Joseph Barksdale really breaks out this season. They may be stuck either reaching for one in the top 10, waiting for one to fall in round 2, or trading for someone like Marcus McNeil. If I were them, I’d see what 2010 4^th round pick Jason Fox has ASAP to determine if he has any potential as a starter for the future, because Backus does not.

Switching things up, the Lions should have won week 1. That was a touchdown catch by Calvin Johnson. I don’t care if the rules say it’s not. That is the most bullshit rule I’ve ever seen. I know a touchdown when I see one. That’s a touchdown.

Better luck next year

29. Cleveland Browns 0-1

Never ever ever pick Jake Delhomme to win a game. I thought I could get away with it last week. He had a good preseason. He had a change of scenery. He was playing a bad Bucs defense. Nope. He didn’t win. At least the Bucs didn’t cover. Jake Delhomme proved last week he’s just as bad as he’s ever been. He’s decent until he throws his first interception and then he absolutely explodes. I have no idea how this guy ever made it to the Super Bowl, all I know is, Browns fans are in for another long year and they better hope that, the young defensive players they drafted this year show signs of panning out, they use their 2011 top 10 pick wisely, and that Colt McCoy is good when he starts in 2011, because they’re not going anywhere this year. I’m ashamed that I had this team as one of my potential surprise teams. Nothing about them was surprising week 1.

28. Denver Broncos 0-1

Josh McDaniels bashing time. So he losing 30% value according to the trade value chart to move up and take Tebow, then uses him on 3 plays week 1, says he won’t use him anymore than that amount weekly for the rest of the season. He could be their quarterback in 2011, but if that’s the plan, why did they pay Kyle Orton 9 million dollars for 2011 in a recent 1 year extension. I guess it’s hard to expect more from someone who trades a future 1^st rounder for a 2^nd round pick that he uses on a player who a year later gets traded for a blocking tight end who was drafted in the 7^th round of the same draft, even though he already traded up in that same draft to draft a blocking tight end in the 2^nd that would have been there in the 6^th. This guy is their coach. That’s why they won’t win more than 5 games this year.

27. Arizona Cardinals 1-0

Worst team to win a game last week goes to the Cardinals, who barely beat the extremely lowly Rams. Derek Anderson was decent statistically week 1, but he really didn’t throw the ball well and if it wasn’t for some nice plays by his receivers, and the fact that the Rams’ secondary is one of the 5 worst in the league, that would not have been a very good statistical game at all. Sadly Cardinals fans, your team is back to being bad and struggling to score points throwing the air. Hopefully they can get themselves a good quarterback this offseason and go back to being good next year because their supporting cast really isn’t all that bad. It’s just Anderson, and, on several occasions, the players attempting to protect him. It’s really amazing how much better than they actually were Kurt Warner made this offensive line look over the past 2 years.

Looking forward to a top ten pick

26. Kansas City Chiefs 1-0

Tough to give a team a lot of credit for a win, even against a supposedly good team like the Chargers, when they couldn’t pass the ball all game, and when all 3 of their scores were on either a long run, a goal line play after a turnover gave them a really short field, or on a punt return, simply because I don’t know if they can replicate that on a weekly basis. If they are going to win more games and surprise people, Matt Cassel is going to have to do more than check down, hand off to his running back, and rely on luck to win.

However, I will give them this, that defense, even though the pass rush wasn’t great, did look good. They bended, but didn’t break against the Chargers strong passing attack and we saw good games from players like Brandon Flowers that suggest this defense could be a lot better as a squad than it was last year. They’re opportunistic and they’re athletic and their secondary, one of the smallest in the league, just held its own against some of the biggest receivers in the league. We saw the Chargers exploit their height advantage big time against the Titans last year, but the Chiefs didn’t let them do that. Romeo Crennel is doing a solid job with the defense.

Todd Haley on the other hand, is still insisting on giving the ball to Thomas Jones, over the clearly more talented Jamaal Charles. Charles had that big 56 yard touchdown run against San Diego, yet Haley was still giving the ball to Jones late. One of these days, that could cost them a win. On the subject of coaches, Charlie Weis really needs to be more forward thinking with his play calling. Let Cassel throw down field occasionally. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but their passing attack was way too one dimensional against San Diego, even in a win.

25. Oakland Raiders 0-1

Add a solid quarterback, revamp the defense, lose anyway. That seems to be the theme of the Oakland Raiders right now. They had so many high hopes going into this season, some even projecting them to get to the playoffs, but they absolutely stunk against Tennessee week 1 and the only explanation I can think of for why is that they are the Raiders. That’s still their culture. Losing. They should be more talented and play better this year than in years past, but at the same time, they could very not just play as badly as they have before.

Having Michael Bush in there would have helped, but Darren McFadden did a surprisingly good job in his absence so I don’t know how much more Bush helps, only than to give opposing defenses a different look as opposed to McFadden. Their offense could be a little better once he’s back.

Luckily for them, everyone in the AFC West lost this week, with the exception of the Chiefs who looked really bad offensively in a win over AFC West for San Diego. The Raiders, if they get things together, could still make a run. I just highly doubt it.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0

Week 1 figures to be the largest crowd Jacksonville gets this season and they didn’t disappoint, giving the home crowd a win. The only problem, most of that home crowd was there to see Denver Broncos backup quarterback Tim Tebow, a favorite of the town of Jacksonville. The cash scrapped Jaguars could have had a crowd like that every week and more had they drafted Tebow with the 10th overall pick, but instead they drafted Tyson Alualu who did pretty much nothing in his debut. That’s beside the point though.

The point here is that David Garrard played really well against a solid Denver secondary and led his team to an early win. 2nd year receiver Mike Thomas was easily his favorite target and could be that for the rest of the season. For all the talk about replacing Garrard this offseason and drafting Tebow to be his replacement, Garrard looked like he was in 2007 form, managing the game very well and leading his team to victory.

The defense, on the other hand, has major issues and might not be lucky enough next week, when they face an offense less inept than the Denver Broncos’. Even though they got 3 sacks, only 11 fewer than they had all 2009, their secondary still had major issues covering the Broncos journeymen group of receivers, which leads me to believe that their horrible pass defense in 2009 didn’t have as much to do with their horrible pass rush as I believed. They pretty much need an upgrade at every single position in the secondary, with the exception of Rashean Mathis.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-0

All this talk about Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford going into this season, Sanchez absolutely sucked against Baltimore and Stafford almost died against Chicago. Josh Freeman was clearly the most improved of that trio of 2nd year first round pick quarterbacks and I bet it has a lot to do with how much work he put in during the offseason. As I’ve mentioned before, reports out of Tampa raved about how much of a gym rat Freeman had become this offseason and that really showed as he tore apart an underrated Cleveland defensive squad, despite playing with a broken finger, leading a comeback win. I think Freeman can put together a fairly solid season this year, better than Sanchez and Stafford (though only because Stafford is hurt) and lead the Buccaneers to a few wins, a few upsets, and put them in great position to be talked about as a sleeper for 2011.

Probably not a playoff team

22. Philadelphia Eagles 0-1

My thoughts on the Eagles going into the season basically said this, their secondary can’t cover, their line can’t pass block, and Kevin Kolb doesn’t hold up well under pressure. In their week 1 loss to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers torched Eagles cornerbacks, particularly Ellis Hobbs, and Kevin Kolb was under pressure all game and consequently had a horrible game before leaving with a concussion. Mike Vick came in and almost lead a comeback win, but only because the Packers weren’t expecting to face a running quarterback. Vick ran for over 100 yards. The line didn’t get any better when Vick was in the game. Vick is just much more capable of evading the pass rush and making things happen with his feet. Having those three issues, this team has to be very concerned about missing the playoffs in what is an overrated, but still tough NFC East.

21. Seattle Seahawks 1-0

I was considering putting the Seahawks a lot higher than this until I remembered how good Matt Hasselbeck and company looked week 1 last year. There’s no way Hasselbeck can do what he did week 1 every week and he’s going to need to if this team is even going to get to .500. As soon as Hasselbeck actually starts getting hit, he’s going to start playing worse and with the supporting cast he has around him, that’s not going to end well. I think what the Seahawks did to the 49ers was the definition of catching a team off guard and I don’t think it would happen twice. The Seahawks simply aren’t going to play that well every week and could easily lose by double digits this week.

20. Chicago Bears 1-0

The Bears won this week, but let’s face it, they really lost. As I highlighted in the Lions write up, that catch by Calvin Johnson should have been ruled a touchdown. I know what a touchdown looks like. That’s a touchdown. Even in a “win” the Bears looked bad, like as bad as they had all preseason. They looked out of sync offensively and defensively and barely beat a Lions team that lost its starting quarterback mid game. That’s enough for me to knock them down a few spots, even in a “win”.

Making some noise

19. Miami Dolphins 1-0

Another team that didn’t look as good as it was supposed to in a win, Chad Henne really seemed to regress from where he was last season, a major surprise as he was really starting to come around late last year, and the Dolphins added him an elite receiver in Brandon Marshall during the offseason. Defensively they looked fine, but that was of course because they were playing Trent Edwards and the Bills, who refused to throw more than 5 yards downfield all game

18. Atlanta Falcons 0-1

The Falcons ran into a very good Pittsburgh defense to start the season and showed the world that they were not, in fact, ready to make the next step into being an elite offense. An elite offense scores more than 9 points against Pittsburgh. Matt Ryan is a good, but not great signal caller and Michael Turner didn’t look much healthier than he did last year. The Steelers defense didn’t just make him look bad. He made himself look pretty bad too.

This team needs to have an elite offense to even approach the expectations that “experts” set for them before this season. Their defense isn’t that good. They can shut down the run pretty effectively, but they will struggle to rush the passer all year, with the exception of the 3 sacks they had against Pittsburgh’s banged up offensive line last week, and that’s going to put a lot of pressure on a secondary led by the extremely overpaid Dunta Robinson.

17. Carolina Panthers 0-1

The injury to Matt Moore could be a blessing in disguise for this team. Matt Moore did not do what I expected him to do and that was to improve off a solid finish to last season and be the game managing quarterback this team needed to win 9-10 games. In his first game, against a pretty run of the mill Giants defense, he regressed looking just as bad as the quarterback that John Fox kept on the bench for 11 games while Jake Delhomme single handedly destroyed the team.

Clausen should be better. He has everything that quarterbacks like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, who have had good rookie years at quarterback in past years, have had when they were rookies. He has more than 30 games experience in college. He’s played in a scheme that requires a quarterback to take snaps from under center. And he has a fairly solid supporting cast. The defense didn’t look great in their first game, but I have a feeling they’re a little better than that. A lot has been made about the receiving corps, but Brandon LaFell is a decent 2nd option to Steve Smith so they should be fine in that area. And then of course there’s their amazing running game, provided John Fox remembers to give Jonathan Stewart the ball.

Which brings me to my final point, Jonathan Stewart only got the ball 5 times. He’s their 2nd most talented running back, but it’s pretty close between him and DeAngelo Williams, who had 16 carries. The Panthers also didn’t run that much in general, 24 runs to 35 passes. That’s part of why they lost. They put too much pressure and burden on the quarterback position. This is not a pass first offense. Their running game with Williams and Stewart is significantly better than their passing game. Regardless of who the quarterback is next week, Moore or Clausen, they better run more other they’re hurting their chances to win. Even when the New York game was still close, they were passing first and running 2nd. In close games, they have to use the run to set up the pass. Not the other way around.

 

Close, but no cigar

16. New York Jets 0-1

I’m guessing we’re not going to be hearing a lot of Super Bowl talk from Rex Ryan’s big mouth this week. The self-proclaimed best team in football matched a franchise low with 6 first downs in a 10-9 loss to the Ravens that could have been a lot uglier with the way the Jets were playing. If it wasn’t for 3 poorly timed interceptions, this game could have been 20-6 easily. Just look at the stats.

Mark Sanchez had a horrible game, but I don’t blame him as much as I blame whoever came up with the game plan. A conservative run heavy offense is not how you beat the Ravens. The Ravens’ front 7 is one of the best in the game, but their pass defense, with injuries to guys like Ed Reed and Lardarius Webb, is very prone to giving up the big gain through the air. The problem was, the Jets didn’t even test the Ravens secondary. When they did call pass plays they were short pass plays, though Sanchez, 10-21 for 74 yards, can definitely be blamed there for checking down every play.

Add in the Jets’ mental errors, like two fumbles by Shonn Greene that may have cost him his starting job to LaDainian Tomlinson, 14 penalties for 125 yards that led directly to 6 Ravens first downs, or just the sheer fact that on the Jets’ last offensive play of the game, Dustin Keller caught the ball and forgot where he was on the field, stepping out of bounds a good yard before the first down marker on 4th down, and this was a mess of a game for the Jets, who don’t appear to be in any sort of position to beat the Patriots next week. Even Revis Island didn’t look so great in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised if Randy “Slouch” Moss went out there and had a big game on him next week.

15. Tennessee Titans 1-0

Many, including me, predicted Chris Johnson would be tired and worn down after leading the league in carries in 2009, at 200 pounds, but he looked far from tired week 1, abusing the Raiders stout run defense for his 12th straight 100 yard game, giving him a good start to his goal of 2500 yards this season. As long as CJ runs like that and Vince Young can play well, limit turnovers, and run with it occasionally, and that defense can play decent, they’re going to win 10 games. I’m just not sold on CJ being 100% of what he was last year just yet, but if he is, look out. Remember this team went 8-2 with VY as the starter last year.

On the playoff bubble

14. Washington Redskins 1-0

In a sloppy victory over the Cowboys, which they easily could have lost, we didn’t learn a whole lot about the Redskins. As Dennis Green would have said, they are who we thought they were. They are a veteran team throughout and play a relatively boring brand of football, made more exciting by the for some reason still ongoing drama between Albert Haynesworth and Mike Shanahan. They were very unspectacular this week and the most interesting thing about their box score is that, against a tough Dallas secondary, Donovan McNabb struggled a bit more than he was used to.

13. Cincinnati Bengals 0-1

I think the Bengals just got unlucky last week, running into a talented New England team with something to prove, in a game that New England undoubtedly spent months preparing for. Bill Belicheck and Tom Brady are two of the most prepared people in professional sports, so much so that they haven’t lost a season opener since 2003. The Bengals just ran into some bad luck with the Patriots week 1, and committed some bad turnovers. Week 2 against Baltimore will be the really telling game for this squad as a loss would drop them to 0-2 in one of the toughest divisions in football, something they might not be able to come back from, even with Batman and Robin.

12. Minnesota Vikings 0-1

The soon to be 41 year old Brett Favre looked like, well, he was soon to be 41 years old, failing to exploit a banged up New Orleans secondary, on a day when the New Orleans offense somehow only scored 14 points. You know that game was the reason Brett Favre came back. He wanted to beat the team that he lost to last year, the team that went on to win the Super Bowl he felt he should have won, and the team that talked smack about him all offseason.

It’ll be very interesting to see how Favre responds after losing that game. More likely than not, I believe he just comes out looking dejected and tired next week in Miami, a bad sign for a Minnesota team that desperately needs him. With Sidney Rice out, Percy Harvin struggling, Bernard Berrian beyond struggling, their offense line unable to pass protect, and all those injuries in their secondary, Brett Favre needs to step up, otherwise this becomes a team that has to rely on Adrian Peterson to do everything.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0

I’d give Dennis Dixon a B+ for his 2nd career start, 1st after Big Ben’s suspension. There’s a lot of pressure on him to win at least 2 games in Ben’s absence and he has already won one, winning a close hard fought battle in overtime. Dixon wasn’t amazing statistically, but for a quarterback no one thought much about, Dixon put up decent numbers and more importantly limited mistakes, even will all of that pressure in his face. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares against above average secondaries and teams that can pressure the quarterback better. The Steelers banged up line gave up 3 sacks to the Falcons miserable pass rush week 1 so it’s only going to get worse going into week 2 against Tennessee.

Either way, it looks like coach Omar Epps…I mean Mike Tomlin made the right choice going with Dixon at quarterback. He’s far more mobile than Charlie Batch, a huge plus behind this miserable offensive line, and he has more potential than Batch as a 2nd year player. As long as Dixon limits the mistakes and can keep giving the ball to Rashard Mendenhall, and feeling very sure that Mendenhall is going to get a positive gain, with this once again amazing defensive squad behind them, they could easily go 3-1 in Ben’s absence, leading to the inevitable stupid ESPN “debates” of should they even give Ben his job back?

Playoffs and maybe more

10. San Francisco 49ers 0-1

The 49ers are still my pick to win the NFC West. Seattle’s performance was an absolute fluke. They had one like that to start the season last year. Just when you like Matt Hasselbeck is healthy again, he starts to struggle. I expect him to do that again this season starting week 2. St. Louis and Arizona both looked equally bad in their game against each other, with Arizona barely winning on a play where St. Louis absolutely blew the entire coverage.

The 49ers don’t have to win this week against the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, but as long as they show themselves to be more prepared and more put together than they did week 1, they are still my pick in the division. Alex Smith might actually be the best quarterback in the division, believe it or not after his not so hot performance week 1, and then forget about comparing defenses and running games between San Fran and the rest of the division. It’s not even close. They should still win this division, but at the same time, anything can happen, as we saw last week.

9. New York Giants 1-0

With all of the good teams looking bad and losing week 1, the Giants performance is going surprisingly under the radar. I liked what I saw out of them. Forget the fact that offensively the Panthers came out with the completely wrong game plan, the Giants defense still looked loads better than it did last season. It’s an interesting concept, but their defensive backs actually finished tackles week 1, something they didn’t do most of last year.

Eli Manning threw 3 picks, but all 3 of them were the receiver’s fault and only one of them would I even describe as a questionable decision by Manning. Manning still had an 8.8 YPA and 3 scores to balance out those 3 picks and I expect them to straighten out the problems that led to their picks this week and come out more efficient week 2. Their running game is also back, to compliment what looks like an even more improved Eli Manning. They ran the ball as much as they were supposed to and exactly as much as Eli needed to be effective. Both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw looked healthier than they were in 2009 and those two could form a very dominant smash and dash type running game this season.

8. Dallas Cowboys 0-1

The Cowboys losing in stupid ways is nothing new, and borderline hilarious at this point. The only way it would have been funnier is if it were in the playoffs and Jerry Jones spontaneously combusted afterwards. However, that loss did highlight a lot of things that were wrong with that team and did that enough for me to no longer consider them true Super Bowl contenders. Stupid mistakes are a habit for this team, whether it be stupid play calling by Wade Phillips, as we saw in the playoffs last year, or a stupid penalty to nullify a game winning score when Alex Barron felt it necessary to choke, stab, and castrate his man in protection, in order to keep him away from Tony Romo. There’s no many people prone to stupid mistakes on this team. It’s become a culture there in Dallas and a lot of that can be blamed on Wade “why does he still have a job” Phillips.

It also showed the Cowboys lack of offensive line depth. This was a major issue last year and it’s the biggest reason why they lost to Minnesota last year. Why they didn’t do something about it in the offseason is beyond me. Drafting Sam Young and trading for Barron were not enough. Doug Free looked overmatched at left tackle, replacing the departed Flozell Adams. Alex Barron should not have even been on the field in the first place in that situation, as a better backup for Marc Colombo should have been acquired this offseason. With how old most of these lineman are, injuries like the ones to Colombo and left guard Kyle Kozier, which also hurt them week 1, are going to be common. This is going to mean way too much of Alex Barron on the field, and way too much Tony Romo eating dirt.

Dark Horses

7. San Diego Chargers 0-1

My locks of the week are cursed. I’m serious, don’t even pay any attention to those anymore. In the last 10 regular season weeks, my lock picks are 6-4, for a .600 winning percentage. The rest of my picks are around .600. I should start calling it my unlock pick of the week. Guess that’s what I get for picking the Chargers to win a game they were supposed to in September, especially on the road on national TV, against a team that hasn’t hosted a Monday Night Game in 6 years.

Logic suggests that the Chargers can do what they normally do, turn on the engines mid-October and win the division, especially considering that they did actually outplay the Chiefs, losing because of stupid mistakes that led to big fluky touchdowns for KC. I will stick to that logic, but there’s always a good chance that that doesn’t happen again and this year is as bad of a year as any for that to happen. Both Oakland and Kansas City are better this season than last and can challenge San Diego for the division if San Diego can’t turn it on and win double digit games. All that is speculation though right now and I’m still going with my gut and my original pick, Chargers win 10+ and the division, choke in playoffs.

6. Houston Texans 1-0

The Texans have launched themselves into Dark Horse Super Bowl contender status. They’re not quite legit Super Bowl contenders in my eyes, but with the way 2009 playoff teams played week 1, in a few weeks, they could be legit contenders. I still could see them winning it all, as weird as it would seem to see the words Houston Texans Super Bowl Champions, but I don’t think it’s likely. Remember this point last year how weird it would have seemed to see New Orleans Saints Super Bowl Champions. The 2010 Texans and the 2009 Saints aren’t too different when you think about it, if a few things go right for the Texans in the coming weeks. Beating the Colts is a great start.

What they do after beating the Colts is going to be key. That game was essentially their Super Bowl, against the team they were 1-15 against all time, the team that had dominated this division for so long. They have to be able to bring that kind of intensity every week and I’m not quite sure they can do that. I also don’t know if their defense is as opportunistic as the Saints’ was last year. I also still don’t trust Matt Schaub in clutch situations. If Arian Foster doesn’t have the 2nd best week 1 rushing performance in NFL history, they probably don’t win that game and Foster won’t do that every week. Schaub didn’t play very well and he’ll have to do that in the future if they are going anywhere.

Imagine though if he does, Foster playing well, with that passing game led by Schaub playing well, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, an eventually healthy Owen Daniels, and a decent defense. That’s the potential I see in this team.

Elite runner ups

5. Baltimore Ravens 1-0

Joe Flacco looks like he could throw the ball about 200 yards down field, through the bleachers and out into the parking lot, on every throw. He looks like he’s holding back in terms of arm strength on even plays 30, 40, 50 yards downfield. The issue though is he struggles to put touch on balls a lot of the time, which is why an athletic downfield receiver like Anquan Boldin is going to be so helpful for him. If Flacco can be as good as his arm looks like it could be, and they eliminate stupid mistakes, they’re going far.

Speaking of stupid mistakes, however, that seems to be this team’s trademark. Whether it be penalties, as was the case last season, or turnovers, as was the case week 1, this team is always doing something stupid to limit their potential. If they can stop doing that and Flacco and reign in his cannon, they’re going to be awesome this year, with the way that defense played last week against the highly overrated Mark Sanchez.

4. Indianapolis Colts 0-1

The Colts lost! OMG! The Super Bowl Hangover Curse is true!!! That is what I’m seeing a lot of about the Colts in the internet this week, and it is completely wrong. Everyone loses. Even Peyton Manning. He just happened to lose week 1 to a team that he had owned in his lifetime, but is now suddenly a lot better. There’s no hangover curse. It’s absolutely silly to believe that Peyton Manning, who has already won a ring remember, is going to be so broken up about losing the Super Bowl that he’s going to go 9-7 this year and miss the playoffs. They’ll come out and win this week and do that 10 or 11 more times this season and make the playoffs and make another run at the Super Bowl.

Besides, it’s not like Peyton Manning looked all that bad going 40 for 57 for 433 yards. It takes a hell of a quarterback to complete 70% of his passes on a day when the other team pretty much knows you’re passing on every play, considering how little, 10 carries, the Colts ran week 1.

3. New Orleans Saints 1-0

No Super Bowl hangover here for the Saints after winning it all. They only scored 14 points, but Drew Brees played better than those 14 points make it sound. They won a physical game against a still talented Vikings squad and are in position to make another run at a Super Bowl this year. I actually have nothing else to say about them. They’re so good and consistent it’s becoming boring.

2. New England Patriots 1-0

Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and a for some reason angry Randy Moss looked to be in 2007 form against the Bengals week 1 in a 38-24 win that was really not as close as the score made it seem. However, I expected them to be that good offensively. Ok, well, maybe not THAT good, good enough to destroy a very underrated Cincinnati stop unit, led by the best corner combo in the NFL, Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, but I knew they’d be good.

The surprising part was their defense. I felt they could be good eventually as their talented young players started to mature under the tutelage of Bill Belicheck, but not this good right away. It’s almost like they were videotaping the other team’s….let’s not get into that again. Guys like Patrick Chung, Jerod Mayo, Darius Butler, Brandon Meriweather, Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Myron Pryor and Gary Guyton, all with less than 4 years experience, had huge games against a good Cincinnati offense, better than the 24 points they allowed.

They really only allowed those in the 2nd half, once they started playing a prevent defense and allowing the other team to complete passes underneath the coverage and run out the clock. That performance, along with their age, leads me to predict good things for them this season. As a Patriots fan, this is a very exciting season.

The Favorite

1. Green Bay Packers 1-0

The Packers didn’t look amazing offensively in their first week, but they will soon enough. They have too many weapons, even with the injury to Ryan Grant, not to. Even not looking great offensively, they looked great as a team, building up a 20-3 lead, before Michael Vick came in for the injured Kevin Kolb for Philly and caught Green Bay’s amazing stop unit by surprise. This is very excusable as they did not game plan for him at all and he is a completely different and much more mobile quarterback than Kolb. The Packers are still my Super Bowl pick and expect them to look like it this week against a crappy Buffalo Bills team.

 

 

Listed in order they should be picked up

RB Brandon Jackson- Green Bay

Percent Owned (ESPN): 1.0%

Update: Grant to be placed on IR, needing season ending surgery. Jackson should be owned in every league. 

With Ryan Grant’s status out for the Packers week 2 game and backup James Starks on the PUP for 6 weeks, Jackson, who rushed for 63 yards on 18 carries after Grant went down week 1, will get the start week 2 against Buffalo. Jackson has been a fairly unspectacular runner his entire career, but against Buffalo’s weak ground defense he could approach 100 yards next week.

RB Peyton Hillis- Cleveland

Percent Owned (ESPN): 3.4%

The former fullback split carries evenly with Jerome Harrison rushing for 41 yards on 9 touches. He also chipped in with 4 catches for 24 yards and got most of the short yardage carries, scoring a touchdown. He should be owned in most leagues as I expect him to split with Harrison, or at least get 40% of the carries, as well as the goal line looks.

WR Mark Clayton- St. Louis

Percent Owned (ESPN): 2.3%

The former first round pick was 2010 1^st overall pick Sam Bradford’s favorite target in the Rams week 1 game catching 10 balls for 119 yards on an amazing 16 targets. Clayton is not much better than average at this stage in his career, but the Rams are really thin  at receiver and Clayton looks like the favorite for yards on this team going forward.

WR Nate Washington- Tennessee

Percent Owned (ESPN):  2.4%

Washington looks like the Titans #1 receiver right now with Kenny Britt having conditioning problems. Washington led the team in receptions and receiving yards against Oakland with 3 catches for 88 yards and should do that for most of the season. He also scored this week as well. The only issue, Tennessee doesn’t throw much so he’s not going to be a weekly 80+ yard guy, but he’s worth a fantasy roster spot nonetheless as a #1 receiver.

 

QB David Garrard- Jacksonville

Percent Owned (ESPN): 20.6%

The chronically underrated Garrard tore apart the Broncos in a week 1 win throwing for 170 yards and 3 scores with 0 picks on only 21 attempts. He should definitely be owned in most leagues as a backup.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

Percent Owned (ESPN): 20.4%

Laurence Maroney is hurt and has seemingly fallen out of favor with the coaching staff anyway so Taylor is going to be the starter from this point on. He had 77 yards on 16 touches week 1. Unfortunately he’s a New England running back which means his carries could be pretty inconsistent because Bill Belicheck hates fantasy football. Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and even Maroney could steal carries from him, but with the way he ran last week and the way he ran in the preseason, BB would be best served to get Taylor 15+ touches every week.

WR Brandon Lloyd- Denver

Percent Owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Lloyd matched his 2009 receiving totals in one week this year with 117 yards week one against the Jaguars. He, not Jabar Gaffney, appears to have won Brandon Marshall’s old role in Denver and should be a solid source of yards going forward.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent Owned (ESPN): 2.6%

Thomas was clearly the best Jacksonville receiver on the field week 1, over Mike Sims Walker, 2009 Fantasy Breakout Stud. The former 4^th round pick and accomplished college receiver caught 6 passes for 89 yards, leading the team, in a win over Denver week 1.

TE Todd Heap- Baltimore

Percent Owned (ESPN): 15.7%

Heap caught 6 balls for 72 yards in the Ravens week one game against the Jets. When healthy, he’s a very underrated solid performer at tight end and should put up TE1 numbers for you week in and week out, unless his history of injuries flares up again. He’s worth the risk if you need tight end help.He

QB Josh Freeman- Tampa Bay

Percent Owned (ESPN): 3.2%

Josh Freeman was bad last year with 18 picks in 290 attempts, but in his first game this year against Cleveland, Freeman showed himself to be a much improved quarterback going 17 for 28 for 182 yards 2 scores and a pick. He’s an interesting pickup as a high upside QB2 after all the work he put in this offseason.

TE Evan Moore- Cleveland

Percent Owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Moore was on the practice squad at this time last year, but Moore, who caught 12 passes for 158 yards in 5 games last year, picked up where he left off with 3 catches for 87 yards against Tampa Bay and could be an interesting tight end option in deep leagues going forward. He’s clearly more talented than the overpaid Ben Watson.

 

 

 

Overall picks: 10-6

ATS Picks: 6-8-2 (-670)

Lock picks: 0-1

Upset picks: 1-1

Miami Dolphins 20 Minnesota Vikings 23

Spread: -6 Vikings

Pick against spread: Miami (2 units) +200

I believe, the main reason why Brett Favre came back from retirement, despite a bad ankle, was not necessarily to win a Super Bowl, but rather to beat the Saints, against whom he lost to end last season, a team that had been bad mouthing him all offseason. Beating the Saints in that opener was what he came back for and now that he didn’t do it, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of attitude he comes out with this week. Will he play like a dejected 40 year old quarterback with a bad ankle, or will it motivate him to play through the pain? More likely, I think it’s the former, which is bad news for the Vikings. Favre played bad enough last week in a discombobulated loss to the Saints and it’s not like his supporting cast is going to help him all that much. Favre was pressured on almost every snap against the Saints and it’s obvious he missed Sidney Rice, as the only Minnesota wideout who looked remotely decent last week was Greg Camarillo, who, as of a month ago, was a Miami Dolphin.

That being said, the Dolphins defense isn’t the Saints defense. I think the Vikings will actually be able to put some points up this week. The Dolphins secondary is not very good, though Trent Edwards made them look great last week in a win against the lowly Bills. Let’s not forget Chad Henne didn’t look too sharp last week either, as he appeared to have regressed after a strong finish to last season, his first as a starter. The Vikings are still my pick to win this game, but I’m not going to take them against a 6 point spread.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Atlanta Falcons 34

Spread: -7 Falcons

Pick against spread: Atlanta (3 units) +300

The fact that the Cardinals almost lost to the Rams last week is not a good sign. Derek Anderson didn’t look nearly as good as his stats looked as he often threw off target. If it wasn’t for a major breakdown in coverage for the Rams late, Anderson probably would not have thrown that game winning touchdown to Fitzgerald. The Falcons are better defensively than the Rams and should force Anderson into many incompletions and interceptions. Anderson is the type of quarterback who can put points on the board in a hurry with his big arm so the Falcons could give up some points here, but Anderson’s turnovers are going to turn into shorter fields for the Falcons offense, who are a lot better than the Steelers made them look last week.

Baltimore Ravens 21 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: -3 Ravens

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) -330

The Bengals didn’t look very good offensively last week, until the Patriots switched to a prevent defense, to force the Bengals into short completions and run out the clock. That was the Patriots inexperienced defense they were faced. Imagine what Baltimore is going to do to them. The Ravens looked amazed last week defensively and it wasn’t just because Mark Sanchez didn’t test them deep. That run defense stuffed the run in 1^st and 2^nd down and forced the Jets into tough deep throws. The Ravens secondary is depleted by injury right now and could have trouble covering guys like TO, Ochocinco, Shipley, and Gresham, but if they can stuff the run early, they’ll limit this offense a lot. The Bengals bread and butter is the run with Cedric Benson, who will be taken out of this game. If the Ravens can avoid stupid penalties/turnovers offensively, they’ll be able to score enough to win this low scoring contest.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Cleveland 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -2 Browns

Pick against spread: Kansas City (3 units) +300

The Chiefs offense, especially their passing game, didn’t look very good in an upset win on Monday Night Football over the San Diego Chargers. The only reason they won is because they forced turnovers which led to points and because they got a long run from Jamaal Charles. Turnovers are notoriously inconsistent from week to week so that’s not a reliable way to win ballgames. However, the Browns are a very turnover prone team. Throughout the entire preseason, Jerome Harrison struggled with fumbles, something he continued to do in week 1. Peyton Hillis, the backup running back, also joined the fumble party week 1, and don’t even get me started on Jake Delhomme, who is capable of throwing 3 picks on any given Sunday no matter the opponent. The Chiefs are going to take a few takeaways that lead directly to touchdowns/field goals and that’s how they’re going to win this ugly contest.

If Jake Delhomme is hurt and misses this game, which is looking like a possibility, I give the Browns a better shot, but I still pick the Chiefs. Seneca Wallace is not the type of guy who you can count on to lead a team to victory.

Chicago Bears 14 Dallas Cowboys 20

Spread: -7 ½ Cowboys

Pick against spread: Chicago (1 unit) +100

Neither of these teams looked very good week 1. The Bears won, but could have easily lost. The Cowboys lost, but could have easily won if Alex Barron didn’t feel it was necessary to strange his man in protection on what would have been the game winning touchdown play. The Cowboys are still the better team here with all of their offensive weapons, but I’m definitely not picking them to cover that ridiculous 7.5 point spread. Tony Romo is going to be under pressure all night because the Cowboys offensive line can’t pass protect. Julius Peppers should have a field day on Doug Free and we all know about Alex Barron and how penalty prone he is on the right side of that line. Jay Cutler is going to be under pressure a lot too as Chicago’s mediocre line attempts to keep DeMarcus Ware away from Cutler as Cutler sets up for a Mike Martz patented 9 step drop.

 

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Detroit Lions 17

Spread: -6 ½ Eagles

Pick against spread: Philadelphia (1 unit) -110

If Matt Stafford were starting this game at 100%, over Shaun Hill, I would pick the Lions. The Eagles didn’t look very good at all last week until Michael Vick came into the game and that’s only because Vick caught the Packers by surprise. They were not expecting to have to face a running quarterback like Vick for more than 5-7 snaps. The Lions defense will be better prepared, but they’re still not very good and Shaun Hill is going to have his work cut out for him trying to keep him.

The strength of the Lions defense is their defensive line. Ndamukong Suh had a strong first game of his career week 1 and should have another one with Eagles center Jamaal Jackson out for the season. The Eagles offensive line was bad to begin with, but it just got a whole lot worse with Jackson out, especially on the interior of the line where Suh plays. Suh is going to take on blockers and free up guys like Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Corey Williams to pressure Vick. The issue, Vick can handle pressure well, by simply evading it and scrambling. He’s not a great passing quarterback. He’s never been one, even before his stint in the big house. However, he should be able to lead successful drives, provided he makes smart decisions, against this Lions defense as their back 7, especially their secondary, is miserable.

Shaun Hill is a game manager, but he’ll have to throw downfield a lot more to keep up, something he’s simply not capable of doing. It doesn’t help that, if he gets down early, he’ll be under significant pressure. Jeff Backus is not an adequate blindside protector and Trent Cole is going to destroy him the way Julius Peppers did week 1.

Buffalo Bills 13 Green Bay Packers 31 lock pick

Spread: -14 Packers

Pick against spread: Packers (2 units) +200

My lock picks should be called unlock picks. Over the past 10 weeks, my lock picks are 6-4, a worse win/loss percentage than my non-lock picks, which sit in the .660 range. However, this one I’m confident about. The Bills are a mess of a team incapable of leading a successful offensive drive and the Packers are absolutely an offensive juggernaut who will win this game in a blowout. I pick them against the spread, even though the spread is -14, which is saying a lot.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Tennessee Titans 21

Spread: +5 ½ Titans

Pick against spread: Steelers (1 unit) +100

The Steelers won week 1, a surprise to many, though not to me because I picked them. However, I don’t expect them to repeat that game. The Titans won’t be as unprepared as the Falcons. They know what’s coming with Dennis Dixon and not to take this team, especially this defense, lightly. The Titans also have a better pass rush, which means young Dennis Dixon is going to be under a lot of pressure from all spots on the field. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is horrible. They won’t be able to protect Dixon, which could lead to some Dixon turnovers. The Titans also are looking at this game as a revenge game for week 1 in 2009. These are completely different teams now. Vince Young is now the Titans starter over Kerry Collins. Big Ben is suspended and Dennis Dixon is in. Chris Johnson is also regarded as the best running back in the league. All of 3 of those things favor the Titans winning this rematch and improving to 10-2 since Vince Young took over week 7 last year.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Denver Broncos 19

Spread: -3 ½ Broncos

Pick against spread: Seahawks (1 unit) -110

The Seahawks looked great to start this season as Matt Hasselbeck looked 29 again. However, he looked 29 again to start last season, going 25 for 36 for 279 yards and 3 scores. By week 2, he looked like an old man again. I expect something similar to happen to the soon to be 35 year old Hasselbeck this year. However, the Broncos aren’t a good team either. They’ll have trouble pressuring Hasselbeck, which is really what turns him into an old man. I think the Broncos will win over a now overrated Seahawks squad, but I won’t pick them to cover, just in case.

St. Louis Rams 16 Oakland Raiders 23

Spread: -3 ½ Raiders

Pick against spread: Raiders (2 units) -220 

The Raiders lost pretty badly last week to the Titans, but the Rams aren’t the Titans. They are bad. The Rams are 6-43 in their last 49 games. They should be a much easier opponent for the Raiders in their home opener. The Raiders are better then they looked in their messy opener. Provided they keep the mental mistakes to a minimum, they’ll both win and cover here.

New England Patriots 28 New York Jets 13

Spread: -3 Patriots

Pick against spread: Patriots (4 units) -440 

The Patriots looked amazing week 1, even better than their 14 point win would suggest. They legitimately looked like the 2007 Patriots and were good in every facet of the game, especially that amazing offense. The Jets were a mess in their first game, tying a franchise record for least first downs in a game. The Patriots defense isn’t the Ravens defense, but it still remains to be seen if Mark Sanchez can beat a team through the air. If not, he’ll have to rely on an ancient LT and a fumble prone Shonn Grenne. And if Tom Brady puts points up on the board fast, forget it, Sanchez won’t be able to do anything to keep up. The Jets defense is good, but even if Darrelle Revis, who looked sluggish by his standards, takes Randy Moss out of the game, I don’t know if you can count on Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson to shut down their guys and Tom Brady is an equal opportunity quarterback. If you’re open, he’ll throw it to you and he’s got plenty of solid options, more than he had last year when he had a strong passing performance against the Jets in a Patriot win.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 San Diego Chargers 23

Spread: -7 Chargers

Pick against spread: Jaguars (1 unit) -110

The Chargers do this every September and get away with it every September. I am very hesitant to pick the Chargers this week, but I will against a Jacksonville team that barely beat a confused Broncos team, and now has to travel 3 times zones to San Diego. The balls will be flying through the air in warm, sunny San Diego. Philip Rivers is one of the best in the business as a quarterback and the Jaguars simply can’t stop anyone through the air. I’m not going to pick the Chargers to cover though. It’s too risky against a ridiculous -7 spread, after that abysmal loss week 1 on Monday Night Football.

Houston Texans 28 Washington Redskins 27

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Washington (1 unit) -10

The Texans need to prove two things this week. That they can avoid a hangover after the biggest win in franchise history and win again and that they can win with a balanced attack. Arian Foster won’t do that every week. He’ll be good, but he won’t do that every week. Now they need to balance that running attack with their strong passing attack and if they can do that, this is an elite offense that can win any game. If not, they will once again struggle to make the playoffs. I expect them to barely come out a win against a good Washington squad here, just because I think they’ll be able to balance their attack well and put a ton of points on the board in a comeback win. I do expect them to trail early though as a young team coming off that amazing win.

New York Giants 21 Indianapolis Colts 34

Spread: -6 Colts

Pick against spread: Colts (3 units) +300

There’s no way the Colts drop 2 to open the season. Forget the alleged Super Bowl loss hangover. This is a mature team that’s won a Super Bowl before. Losing one won’t phase them as much as it would a team that lost their first Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is too good and I expect him to have a great game and win and cover in this game against his younger brother Eli.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 Carolina Panthers 31

Spread: -3 ½ Panthers

Pick against spread: Buccaneers (1 unit) +100

Matt Moore should have better game this week, against Tampa Bay rather than New York, and they should win, but it’ll be a close shoot out game. Josh Freeman is better than people give him credit for, though I like Moore in a close game more than Freeman. However, I’m not picking the Panthers to cover the spread.

New Orleans Saints 35 San Francisco 49ers 24

Spread: -6 Saints

Pick against spread: Saints (2 units) -220

The 49ers shouldn’t panic if they lose this game because they can still win the division easily if they do. They are the most talented team in the division, plus, it’s very likely that every NFC West team loses this week. That being said, the 49ers won’t win this game. They’ll be more motivated than the Saints having a rare Monday Night home game, but the 49ers are exactly the type of team the Saints beat and that’s a team with an unsteady quarterback. Brees will dominate this mediocre 49ers secondary, put points on the board, and force Alex Smith to match, which won’t happen. He’ll just commit turnovers which is what the Saints defense loves and what fuels the Saints offense. Think Saints/Falcons from 2009, either of their meetings, and that’s what this game will look like.

 

 

 

WR Nate Burleson (Detroit)

Percent owned (ESPN): 26.6%

Burleson deserves to be owned in all leagues. He, not Brandon Pettigrew, is Matt Stafford’s #2 target after Megatron. He was in the preseason and he was in the opener. He had 5 catches for 60 yards in the opener and Detroit’s passing offense looks like one of the better ones in the league this year.

RB Cadillac Williams (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.8%

Steven Jackson will not play against New York this week. Cadillac Williams, who rushed for 91 yards on 19 carries after Jackson went down week 1, figures to be the lead back. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues because he’s a hell of a pass catcher. He caught 5 passes for 49 yards week 1.

WR Devery Henderson (New Orleans)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.0%

Marques Colston is out for at least 4 weeks. Henderson, who caught 6 passes for 100 yards and a score in the opener, will step into the starting lineup for him. I don’t know to tell you how explosive New Orleans’ offense is, so this is very good for his fantasy value.

QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

Percent owned (ESPN): 23.7%

Cam Newton threw for 422 yards and 2 scores in the opener. He won’t do that every week and he’ll have his share of inconsistencies as a rookie, but he’s definitely got the upside to be worth a spot on your bench for now.

WR Brandon Gibson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.4%

Danny Amendola is out at least and a week and likely longer. Someone has got to catch the passes for Sam Bradford. Brandon Gibson, who led the way with 3 catches for 50 yards against Philly’s tough pass defense, figures to be the guy along with Mike Sims Walker, who was blanketed in the opener by Nnamdi Asomugha.

 

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo)

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.2%

Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t going to throw for 4 touchdowns every week, but in his first full season as a starter, he looks to have settled into his role and provides for a decent QB2. He’s especially valuable if you have a starting quarterback who had an iffy week 1 performance (Eli Manning).

QB Rex Grossman (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.5%

Like Fitzpatrick, Grossman shouldn’t be started yet, but if you have an iffy starting quarterback and are looking for a backup with some upside, I’d go Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Rex Grossman 3^rd. Hell, I might pick up one of those 3 if I wasn’t satisfied with my backup situation and just wanted to keep them away from an opponent. The former first round bust has revitalized himself in Mike Shanahan’s offense with 305 yards and 2 touchdowns in the opener.

RB Deji Karim (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.5%

With new quarterback Luke McCown, the Jaguars figure to run a lot. This is nothing new for them, but Maurice Jones Drew is on a play count, something he’s not happy about, thanks to his less than 100% injury situation. Karim only had 31 yards in the opener, but it’s the 14 carries I like to see. He’s a nice handcuff for MJD, an injury risk, and a high upside player for your bench for non-MJD owners.

TE Ed Dickson (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.2%

Ed Dickson looks like Flacco’s favorite of his two tight ends, Dennis Pitta being the other one. Without a ton of talent at wide receiver (two decent veterans and a pair of raw rookies), the Ravens look to feature a lot of two tight end sets, much like New England does with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Dickson had 5 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown in the opener.

TE Fred Davis (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.3%

Fred Davis caught 5 passes for 103 yards in the opener. The reason he’s so low on this list is because Chris Cooley wasn’t playing at 100% in their first game. The veteran Cooley will be better as the season goes on, but even then, Davis might be Washington’s most talented tight end.

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Scott Chandler had 1 career catch going into this season. He caught 5 passes for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns in the opener. He’s not a particularly talented player, but Ryan Fitzpatrick showed comfortability throwing to him in the preseason and in the opener. The 6-7 263 Chandler is a hell of an end zone target and the Bills lack a true #2 receiving threat after Stevie Johnson.

 

Fantasy Football Pickups 

 

 

Subject to change 

9/1/11 8 PM ET

UNLV at Wisconsin

OT Ricky Wagner (Wisconsin) #58

Wisconsin just keeps pumping out these talented offensive linemen. Wagner, an All-Big 12 honorable mention on the right side in 2010, moves to the left side as a junior in 2011 with Gabe Carimi going to the NFL 29^th overall.

WR Phillip Payne (UNLV) #4

In 3 seasons, Payne has 127 catches for 1786 yards and 19 touchdowns at UNLV, including 40 catches for 689 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2010 to lead his team. As a senior, he’ll have to improve on those stats and run faster than his projected 4.6 40 to get drafted.

9/2/11 8 PM ET

TCU at Baylor

WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) #1

Wright has improved his catch total and his receiving yards total in each of his first 3 seasons, totaling 78 catches for 952 yards and 7 touchdowns last season as a junior. He may be only 5-10, but he runs a low 4.4, high 4.3 and has also rushed for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns on 65 carries.

RB Ed Wesley (TCU) #34

The 5-9 200 pound Wesley rushed for 1078 yards and 11 touchdowns on 166 carries (6.5 yards per carry) last year. With Andy Dalton going to the NFL, a larger burden of the offense will fall on Wesley, only a junior this year. We’ll see how he responds. In order to improve his draft stock, he’ll need to improve as a pass catcher, catching only 8 balls in each of his first two seasons at TCU.

9/3/11 12 PM ET

Akron at Ohio State

C Michael Brewster (Ohio State) #50

One of the few Ohio State prospects not suspended for the first 5 games of the season, so Brewster will have as good of a chance to stand out as any center ever has at the college level. The consensus top center prospect in this class, Brewster could go in the first round like prospects such as Mike Pouncey, Maurkice Pouncey, Alex Mack, and Eric Wood have in recent years.

OLB Nathan Williams (Ohio State) #43

Most of Ohio State’s standouts are on the offensive end, but Williams, a tweener defensive end/outside linebacker has the most draft promise on the defensive side. Williams had 45 tackles, 8.5 for a loss, and 4.5 sacks in 2010.

9/3/11 3:30 PM ET

Western Michigan at Michigan

DT Mike Martin (Michigan) #68

One of Michigan’s best defensive players since he stepped on campus, leading all freshmen in tackles with 20 as a freshman. The sturdy run stopper has also amassed 6.5 sacks in 3 seasons.

TE Kevin Koger (Michigan) #86

Koger has the physical tools and Michigan will need him to step up as an over the middle target for Denard Robinson, in addition to as a blocker. As a junior, he caught 14 balls for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns.

 

9/3/11 8 PM ET

Boise State at Georgia

QB Kellen Moore (Boise State) #11

Moore has a chance to break Colt McCoy’s NCAA career wins record this season as he has almost single handedly put Boise State on the map as a football school. Last season, he averaged 10 yards per attempt, completed 71.3% of his passes and threw 35 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and he has thrown 10867 yards and 99 touchdowns to just 19 interceptions in 3 seasons. However, questions still remain about his level of competition, his small frame, and his lack of arm strength.

OT Cordy Glenn (Georgia) #71

A 2010 All-American at guard, Glenn decided to return for his senior season and will play left tackle this season. He still projects best as a guard long term, but he can definitely broke himself to be a legitimate left tackle prospect with a good season.

9/4/11 3:30 PM ET

Marshall at West Virginia

DE Bruce Irvin (West Virginia) #11

One dimensional and small, but there’s no denying his 14 sacks from 2010. There once was a time when Von Miller was considered one dimensional and small, but like Miller, Irvin has a lot to prove this season.

DE Vinny Curry (Marshall) #99

With 94 tackles, 14 for loss, and 12 sacks, Curry definitely filled the stat sheet last year, but he is undersized and needs to prove he can do it against top level competition.

9/5/11 8 PM ET

Miami at Maryland

OLB Kenny Tate (Maryland) #6

Chose to return for his senior season, the freakish athletic Kenny Tate (6-4 220 4.5) will move from strong safety to outside linebacker this season. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of prospect he develops into as a linebacker. Tate had 90 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 3.5 sacks last year as primarily a box safety.

SS Ray-Ray Armstrong (Miami) #26

A talented strong safety, the 6-4 220 Armstrong had 3 interceptions last year as a sophomore, but the former elite high school prospect will have to continue to put it all together this season. If he can show better ball skills, coverage skills, and hip fluidity, he could land in the first round as a junior this season.

 

 

 

 

2009 Record

Playoffs: 8-3 (.727)

Overall picks (2009): 174-93 (.652)

Lock picks (2009): 13-4

Upset picks (2009): 20-30

Vikings at Saints 26-31

Spread: -6 Saints

Pick against spread: Vikings (3 units) +300

We all know the back story behind this game, a rematch of the NFC Championship game from 2009, the Saints don’t like the Vikings, the Vikings don’t like the Saints, Brett Favre is back to try to lead his team past a team that they could have easily beaten last year if it wasn’t for their massive amount of turnovers. Many people think this is the same Vikings team from 2009. It isn’t. The same Vikings team from 2009, with better luck, wins that NFC Championship game more times than not. However, with the loss of Sidney Rice to injury and the offseason surgery to Brett Favre’s ankle, which he admits is still not 100% and might not last him the season, this is not the same Vikings team.

The Saints mantra is simple, get after Favre and it worked well last year. It’s going to work better this year. Favre is one of the best quarterbacks in the league under pressure, but he still can be easily pressured, because of the issues his line has in protection, and because he’s not very mobile on that ankle. That pressure is going to lead to a few interceptions for that opportunistic Saints defense, even without Darren Sharper. The Vikings weren’t just unlucky in that NFC Championship game. The Saints defense loves to create turnovers and did it well all year. The emergence of Tracy Porter as an elite ballhawking cornerback should compensate some for the loss of Sharper. While I expect Adrian Peterson to hold onto the ball better this year, after an entire offseason of working on fumbles, Favre will be picked off once if not more in this game.

We all know what happens when the Saints defense gets turnovers. They normally end up, if not score, then in great field position for that dynamic Saints offense led by Drew Brees. The Saints offense might look a bit rusty in this game, as they did in the preseason, but that defense is going to come to play. They genuinely don’t like Favre. That’s all the motivation they need, even after getting their rings right before the game.

The Saints may not start out looking great in this game, because of a small Super Bowl hangover, but they’ll come back to win late on the strength of their defense and Drew Brees, especially since I can’t see too many teams beating the Saints in the Superdome this year, as was the case last year. I don’t like them to cover though as it will be tough for a slightly Super Bowl hungover team to beat a quality foe by more than a touchdown.

Dolphins at Bills 20-14

Spread: -3 Dolphins

Pick against spread: Dolphins (3 units) +300

The Bills are an absolute mess right now. Trent Edwards looked decent this preseason, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him if he wants to lead this team to victory. The Dolphins, as is the case with most Bill Parcells teams, get after the quarterback well. They cut their two top pass rushers from 2009, but still have a good pass rush and the Bills offensive line is horrible. Edwards behind that line is a tried and failed approach and it’ll be the same this year and in this game. It won’t be a blowout, because I expect the Bills opportunistic defense to pick off the somewhat wild Chad Henne once or twice, but I’m picking the Dolphins to both win and cover on the road this week.

Panthers at Giants 21-31

Spread: -7 Giants

Pick against spread: Giants (2 units) +200

I like Matt Moore and the Panthers a lot more than most this season, but this isn’t one of the games they’ll win. The Panthers offensively didn’t click right in the preseason, thanks to Steve Smith’s injury. Smith is 100% for this game, but it’ll take a bit for this team to gel, especially since Moore doesn’t have much outside of Smith. The Giants are a much improved team this season after fixing their issues in the secondary, plus another year with those talented young receivers is definitely not a bad thing for Eli Manning. The Panthers can be run on and the Giants are the type of team that can normally beat the type of team that can be run on. Their running game will make things easier for Eli in a win.

Falcons at Steelers 17-20 Upset pick

Spread: -2 ½ Falcons

Pick against spread: Steelers (3 units) +300

This is Dennis Dixon 2^nd career start as he takes over for the suspended Ben Roethlisberger. Dixon is actually a fairly solid quarterback and can win some games and make some plays, on the strength of this defense, provided he keep the mental mistakes that young quarterbacks normally make to a minimum. The Steelers defense is great. With Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu coming back from injury and Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden returning to the team after one-year stints in Detroit and Arizona respectively, this unit is essentially the same unit as their near record setting 2008 squad that won the Super Bowl. Granted, key players are 2 years older on the wrong side of 30, but this is still a top 3 defense in the league. The Falcons may be completely underrated that and even if they aren’t, they’re probably underrating Dennis Dixon. The Falcons likely see this as their chance to jump on an elite team while their star QB is gone and won’t take the Steelers as seriously as they should. Look for Dixon to do just enough against the Falcons overrated defense to win a close one in an upset.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears 20-21

Spread: -6 ½ Bears

Pick against spread: Lions (2 units) +200

The Bears are going to be a pass heavy team this year with Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator so they have to be thrilled that the Lions’ secondary is one of the worst in the league. The Lions secondary as absolutely their achillies heal. Look for the Lions to blitz Cutler a lot, as that is the weakness of the Martz scheme, with all of its 7 and 9 step drops. They’d be well served to blitz members of their secondary often, knowing they are already pretty overmatched against the pass if Cutler can get the ball out cleanly, and just try to sack and pick the erratic Cutler often. I expect them to do that and create a few turnovers, but their own quarterback, Matt Stafford is a bit erratic as well. These two teams are actually pretty similar, pass heavy, cannon armed erratic quarterback, bad offensive lines, great defensive lines, crappy secondaries, but I still like the Bears a bit more here at home, but I wouldn’t pick them to cover that large spread at all.

Bengals at Patriots 30-33

Spread: -4 ½ Patriots

Pick against spread: Bengals (1 unit) -110

The Patriots young defense is a talented one that I expect to get better as the season goes on, as they get more experience and under the teaching of Bill Belicheck. The problem, they have a very solid opponent right out of the gate. The Bengals with all of their offensive weapons are going to score a lot of points. Palmer’s the type of quarterback who can be great with great receivers and he has great receivers. Tom Brady and company are going to have to be near perfect offensively to keep up with that attack and against what is a very strong Bengals defense. However, I’m still going with the Patriots, not to cover a large and almost unfair spread, but to win this game. The Patriots are the most prepared team in the league every year with BB and Tom Brady. They don’t lose season openers. They haven’t since 2003. They’ve never lost one at home under Belicheck. They’ve been game planning for the Bengals for months. I trust that to be the difference maker in a tough game to pick.

Browns at Buccaneers 28-14 upset pick

Spread: -3 Buccaneers

Pick against spread: Browns (4 units) -40

The Browns really impressed me in the preseason. If Jake Delhomme can find his old form, this team could approach .500, even with the holes in the rest of their supporting cast. A good quarterback is the best band aid for the holes on your team. I don’t expect Delhomme of old, but he’ll definitely win them some games. The Buccaneers are definitely a team in transition. I like a lot of the young talent they have, but they’re not going to be a very good team this year either. Their defense hasn’t  come together yet and the offense, while it has great potential with Josh Freeman at quarterback, is was very inconsistent last year. I definitely prefer the Browns in this one with Delhomme giving them a solid game early and their strong running game holding the Buccaneers off.

Broncos at Jaguars 19-21

Spread: -3 Jaguars

Pick against spread: Broncos (1 unit) -110

The Jaguars were one of the most frustrating teams in the league last year. They could be good. They could be really bad. They have a reputation for being one of the worst prepared teams in the league. In fact, their coach would have been fired long ago, but the Jaguars are in a bad financial situation and would still have to pay him through 2012 even if he were fired. Basically, he’s only there because they can’t afford a new one. They had games last year where they just looked like they took the game off. I’m going with Jacksonville here at home because the Broncos are in really bad shape with their injuries right now and because of the way they ended last year, I just don’t feel like this is a very good team, but I feel it could be really close and an ugly game overall.

Colts at Texans 31-26

Spread: -2 ½ Colts

Pick against the spread: Colts (2 units) -220

The Colts might not look right early, just because of the new positioning of the referee and how that affects quick snap teams. Manning could be a bit flustered early, but Manning and the Colts still own the Texans and I feel the Texans are a year away and an elite corner from being an elite team. Manning will pick this thin secondary apart with all of his weapons. The Texans defensive backs are not skilled enough to leave Reggie Wayne on single coverage so he’ll be doubled and some is going to be open for Manning often. Matt Schaub won’t be able to keep up as Manning gets himself together and leads another heartbreaking come from behind victory.

Raiders at Titans 17-20

Spread: -6 ½ Titans

Pick against the spread: Raiders (2 units) -220

The Raiders won’t look like the post 2002 Raiders you know this year. I expect them to lose only single digit games for the first time since 2002, but the Titans are also surprisingly underrated. Vince Young, believe it or not, is one of those quarterbacks whose team just rallys around him and wins games and then of course Chris Johnson, who, even a strong Raiders defense won’t be able to contain. It hurts the Raiders that stud running back Michael Bush will miss this game with a broken thumb, so Jason Campbell won’t have a strong running game with McFadden as the starter, to lean on. Expect the Raiders to drop the opener in Tennessee, but overall look solid, especially defensively, and cover the spread.

Packers at Eagles 45-24

Spread: -3 Packers

Pick against the spread: Packers (5 units) +500

If that 59 spot they dropped on the Colts in the preseason was any indication, the Packers offense is really, really good. If their line holds up, they’re going to make a Super Bowl run like the Saints did last year. Expect their currently fully healthy line to hold off a very strong Eagles pass rush, which will allow the Packers to pick apart a very poor Eagles secondary. That’s going to put a ton of pressure on Kevin Kolb, in his 3^rd career start. The Packers will be able to blitz him and his horrible offensive line and force him into bad throws and turnovers, which are going to fuel a bunch of shortened field touchdown drives for the Packers dynamic offense.

49ers at Seahawks 33-17

Spread: -3 49ers

Pick against the spread: 49ers (4 units) -440

The Seahawks are a mess. They don’t have a true #1 running back a true #1 receiver and don’t even get me started on a defensive squad that has the worst defensive line in the league. Alex Smith is going to have all day in the pocket and shouldn’t have to make many throws as the Niners can just ram it down the middle with Frank Gore and Anthony Dixon against the Seahawks weak run defense once they get ahead. Matt Hasselbeck is going to be pressured like he was in the game the Seahawks played against the Niners early last year, because stud rookie left tackle Russell Okung will miss the game with an injury. Their passing game is the team’s strength if they can get Hasselbeck some protection and that’ll win them some games against mediocre foes, but Okung is out and the Niners, as we saw in the preseason, are far from mediocre.

Arizona at St. Louis 13-19 upset pick

Spread: -4 Cardinals

Pick against the spread: Rams (2 units) -20

This is going to be a sloppy game overall with the erratic Derek Anderson against rookie Sam Bradford. Anderson is better than Matt Leinart, but he missed a bunch of throws in the preseason that plain and simply every NFL quarterback should make. Bradford looked really good in the preseason and I expect him to really surprise people and win this opener at home over a clearly in trouble Arizona squad, even though Arizona’s defense is actually pretty decent.

Cowboys at Redskins 35-23

Spread: -3 ½ Cowboys

Pick against spread: Cowboys (3 units) -330

You know that sloppy Cowboys offense we saw in the preseason, it’s going to look completely different now that the games matter. This offense is too talented to suck that much in real games. Preseasons don’t really mean all that much and I expect this star studded group of playmakers, on both sides of the ball, to come out and beat a team that is simply less talented in every area of the game, even with the addition of Donovan McNabb and a revamped offensive line.

Ravens at Jets 16-23 upset pick

Spread: -2 ½ jets

Pick against the spread: Ravens (3 units) -330

I feel like I’m getting away with something by being able to call this an upset pick. The Jets should not be favored here. The Ravens are so much better at quarterback. Mark Sanchez looked like absolute crap in the preseason and the defense is not going to quite look like the leagues #1 squad this week, with Calvin Pace hurt and Darrelle Revis still getting back into the flow of things. It’s not going to by a high scoring affair with this two strong defenses, but the Ravens have a strong offense too, especially where it counts, at the quarterback position.

Chargers at Chiefs 38-14 lock pick

Spread: – 4 ½ Chargers

Pick against the spread: Chargers (5 units) -550

I don’t see how the spread is 4 ½ here. The Chargers are so much better here. Their achilles heel on offense will be protecting the quarterback with Marcus McNeil holding out, and that will lose them some games, but not this one as the Chiefs can’t pressure the quarterback anyway. The Chargers won’t miss a beat in the receiving corps with Vincent Jackson out as Malcom Floyd is a clearly competent #1 receiver, as he showed in the preseason and Rivers is going to have a huge game against a weak Chiefs defense in a blowout win. Eric Berry is the Chiefs best defensive player, but he won’t get a lot of opportunities for picks against a sound quarterback like Rivers, without the help of a strong pass rush. Matt Cassel won’t be able to keep up with his mediocre arm and mediocre supporting cast and the Chargers will have their first early season blowout win in a while.