I want to start off by saying, that this was a terrible week for pickups and a terrible week for stats in general (I’ll post something on that later).

RB Anthony Dixon- San Francisco

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.9%

Dixon led the team in carries for the 2^nd straight week and is getting the goal line carries. He rushed for 60 yards on 14 carries. Since Gore went down, he has 37 carries for 147 yards and a score.

RB Tashard Choice- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.1%

Rushing for 16 yards on 7 carries against the Eagles is not impressive, but he did rush for 100 yards on 19 carries against the Colts week 13 and he plays the Redskins and Cardinals, two bad run teams, in his next 2.

WR Earl Bennett- Chicago

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.6%

Chicago’s receivers have been really inconsistent this year, but Bennett seems to be the hot hand right now. He has 14 catches for 213 yards and 2 scores in his last 3.

WR Brandon Gibson- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Another team with inconsistent wideouts, Gibson has 44 catches for 492 yards and 2 scores this year. He has 10 catches for 121 yards in his last 2. Yeah, I’m reaching.

TE Andrew Quarless- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Quarless and Matt Flynn had good chemistry, as Quarless caught a career high 5 passes for a career high 62 yards against the Lions. Flynn is expected to get one more start as Aaron Rodgers suffered his 2^nd concussion of the year.

Last week overall: 12-4

Last week ATS: 7-8-1 (-950/-21%)

Overall picks: 138-79 (.659)

ATS Picks: 108-93-7 (+$1920)

Lock picks: 10-4

Upset picks: 25-26 (+1249)

Sports Betting FAQ 

Week 14 recap: Last week was my worst week since week 6 and my second straight losing week. Since being up $3200 two weeks ago, I have dropped to $1920. However, this week was especially frustrating, more frustrating than when I lost a 5 unit by .5 points week 6.

Indianapolis/Tennessee: Indianapolis is favored by 3 and jumps out to an early 21-0 lead. The Titans comeback, down 30-21 driving with about a minute left in the game in field goal range. Every man and their dog knows what the Titans should do. Kick the field goal and then go for the on sides kick and the Hail Mary, rather than use all your time going for the touchdown. It’s football 101. However, Fisher decided to go for the touchdown instead and Kerry Collins drove all the way down for the score, to make it 30-28 as time expired for the backdoor cover.

Kicking the field goal earlier was their only chance to win the game, but Fisher seemed more determined to cover the spread. He wanted the 50% chance of covering and the 0% chance of winning rather than the 10% chance of winning and covering (all numbers approximate and made up). I wasn’t the only one pissed about this. 85% of the money was on the Colts this week. Either Fisher bet on the Titans or Fisher helped Vegas fix this game. I can’t think of any other explanations. Oh, and to make matters worse, none of this would have happened if Blair White hadn’t decided to play defense on his own guy and knock the ball out of Reggie Wayne’s hands in the end zone earlier in the game. Wayne catches that ball, Colts had 7 instead of 3 and win/cover 34-28. Maybe White was in on the fix too.

Philadelphia/Dallas: Not quite as bad. At least no football 101 rules were broken. Philly was favored by 3.5 here and Dallas, down by 10, drove for the backdoor cover winning touchdown. Philly got the ball back and drove it into field goal range for an easy field goal, but instead just ran the clock out. I know going for the field goal rather than taking the win is a stupid football move, but come on. Jeff Fisher would have done it. You know, if he had bet on his own team.

Houston/Baltimore: Baltimore is favored by 3 and jumps out to a 28-7 lead early in the 3^rd. Houston then mounts a furious comeback to get it to 28-26, after a 99 yard drive and a 95 yard drive, and has a chance to tie it with a 2 point conversion. I had been rooting for the Texans to make a huge comeback this entire time as I picked them +3, and initially wanted them to convert the two so I could potentially get a shot as a win (I picked the Texans straight up as underdogs as well).

However, I decided it would be better if the Texans failed on the two. The 3 unit cover would be intact and that’s more important that the Texans winning. I actually imagined this game going to overtime and the Ravens getting first possession and then driving all the way down on Houston’s terrible defense for the push clinching field goal or the spread winning touchdown.

The Texans did convert the two and sure enough Baltimore got first possession to start overtime. However, the Ravens were forced to punt. Maybe my luck was turning around. Nope. Matt Schaub, after leading that amazing comeback, threw a cover losing pick six. Honestly, don’t feel so bad for me as you feel for the Texans. That was the 4^th time this year they’ve mounted a 14+ point comeback and lost anyway. They’ve only played 13 games.

Those 3 games were a combined 8 units, meaning a $1680 swing. I guess that’s why they say Vegas always wins. Hopefully my luck turns around this week. I’ve made a respectable amount this year, but of course I’d like more.

San Diego Chargers 35 San Francisco 49ers 17 Lock Pick

Spread: -9.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units (+300)

The Chargers are back to their old December ways. Following an embarrassing 15 point home loss to the Raiders week 13, the Chargers buckled down and won a must win home game over the Chiefs 31-0. A lot of people will try to blame that loss on the fact that Matt Cassel didn’t play. I don’t think the result would have been much different if he did. Cassel has been good this year because he’s had a good running game and played an easy schedule. The Chargers took away the Chiefs ground game and were a much tougher opponent than most of the Chiefs’ prior opponents. This Chargers team is for real after that win.

I normally don’t like betting heavily on a team favored by more than a touchdown, but I’m putting 3 on the Chargers at -9. I’m convinced this team can blow out any bad team in the league in December. In another must win game, they will bring their A game. These games are must win from here on out, which is good because their schedule is terrible.

The 49ers looked better last week, but that was against Seattle. San Diego is a different monster. If the Chargers had beaten the Raiders, I would have pounded Chargers -9 against the Chiefs last week. Now that it appears that loss is a thing of the past, I’ll pound the Chargers -9 against the still lowly 49ers. Oh, and just to add to that, the Chargers are a +.500 home team on Thursday Night Football.

Cleveland Browns 23 Cincinnati Bengals 7 Upset Pick (+108)

Spread: Cincinnati -1

Pick against spread: Cleveland 4 units (-440)

Colt McCoy is expected to be back for this game. However, this line doesn’t reflect that. If Jake Delhomme were starting for the Browns, I could see this being an even spread. Carson Palmer and Jake Delhomme would have an epic pick six battle for the ages and the winner would probably be whoever didn’t throw the most touchdowns to the other team.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you see it), we won’t get to see that. McCoy is a significant better quarterback than either Palmer or Delhomme. McCoy has beaten the Saints and the Patriots this season. Granted, those Patriots weren’t quite the same Patriots that are on an unstoppable roll right now, but that’s still a very impressive feat for a rookie quarterback.

McCoy is 2-3 as a starter this year, with 2 of those 3 losses coming in close games to the Jaguars and Jets (both playoff contenders), and the other one coming against the Steelers, a very tough NFL debut. Simply put, McCoy’s first 5 starts in the NFL were about as hard as they could be and McCoy responded extremely well.

Now he comes back and gets the 2-11 Bengals, who just lost what was essentially their Super Bowl, Steelers in Pittsburgh. In fact, if Ben Roethlisberger kneeled down all game, they would have lost to the Steelers. The Steelers won 23-7 on the strength of 3 Palmer picks, 2 returned for touchdowns. The Bengals will get a bit of any easier test this week in Cleveland, but not a whole lot easier. Remember, the Bengals lost to Seneca Wallace and the Browns week 4. McCoy is better than Wallace and the Bengals are in worse shape now than they were week 4 thanks to injuries and complacency as result of being a low character team with a terrible record.

Not only does McCoy get his easiest test of the year, his support cast might actually be better now that it was before he got hurt. Their defense has really stepped it up big times in recent weeks, especially against the pass, thanks to the breakout of rookie corner Joe Haden. This defense was good enough to get Delhomme two wins, over the Panthers and the Dolphins, and almost a third, against the Bills. And then of course you can’t forget about Peyton Hillis going against the Bengals 26^th ranked run defense.

With McCoy starting the Browns are easily the better team in this matchup, yet the line doesn’t reflect that. I’m taking the Browns for 4 and thought about 5, but there’s about a 10-15% chance that Delhomme starts. If Jake Delhomme has to start this week (which is looking very unlikely), this would be Cleveland, only for 1, so my pick wouldn’t change. Because of that, I’m confident in Cleveland +1 for 4. If you’re making bets, make it now. Don’t wait for injury news as this line could shift.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Redskins 23

Spread: Dallas -6.5

Pick against spread: Dallas 2 units (-220)

Washington’s offense finally showed some life last week. Granted, it was against an already bad Tampa Bay defense, missing its top corner, and they only scored 16 points because of stupid mistakes in the red zone and the entire special teams unit getting drunk before the game. Special teams and mistakes haven’t been their problem this season so I expect that to get corrected this week against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense isn’t much better than the Buccaneers, in fact, if you can believe it, they’ve been one of the league’s worst defenses in terms of yards and points, since Jason Garrett took over. Garrett’s mastery with the offense has masked that.

This should be a high scoring game, but I like the Redskins chances to cover a 6 point spread considering how they played last week. It’s also worth noting that 6 of the last 8 Cowboys/Redskins games have been decided by 6 or less. NFC East divisional games are normally close. Also, the road team has covered in 5 of the last 6. The only time the road team didn’t cover was earlier this year, when these Cowboys failed to cover in Washington.

Update: Rex Grossman to start for the Redskins. Line moved to 6.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised if it went higher. Yes, this is still a tough divisional matchup with a big line, but you can’t bet on GROSSman. I have no idea why Shanahan benched McNabb for him. 

There is no way this line should be under a touchdown right now. The Cowboys are playing like a good team of late and I can’t see anyway that Rex Grossman and the Redskins score much in this game, especially since McNabb’s supporting cast is furious at Shanahan for benching him. Out of the playoff race, I see no reason why they give any effort for Shanny, just like the Titans are giving no effort for Jeff Fisher. 

Houston Texans 26 Tennessee Titans 16 Upset Pick (+109)

Spread: Tennessee -1

Pick against spread: Houston 2 units (-220)

Whatever Gary Kubiak says to his team the halftime, he probably should say before the game. This team has the most points per game in the second half since the Greatest Show on Turf. Hell, their 2^nd half output is more than close to half of the league scores all game. The issues are that they are slow starters and that their defense is atrocious.

The Texans won this game 20-0 last time these two met, just 3 weeks ago. However, that Titans plain didn’t show up in that game. Quarterback Rusty Smith had a terrible game and couldn’t put any points on the board. Kerry Collins is now starting for the Titans so they’re at least a little bit better offensively. Collins struggled against Jacksonville, which is just as bad as struggling against the Texans, but had a decent game against the Colts, though most of that was in garbage time.

I like the Texans here for a few reasons. This is normally a good team in the 4^th quarter of the season. In their last 13 games week 14 or later, they are 10-3, including that loss against Baltimore. They also do better when they’re all but out of it, which they are now. Most teams do terrible after tough losses that essentially end their season. This team does better after them.

The Texans offense is also clearly superior to the Titans. The Titans have the better defense, but this offense is pretty inept. In their last 3 weeks, since losing Vince Young, they’ve lost 20-0, 17-6, and trailed 21-0 before the Colts let them back in it. The Jaguars and Texans allowed a combined 6 points to this team and neither of those defenses are any good. They are really struggling offensively and I don’t think another game with the Texans is going to remedy that. Given the Titans’ inability to score, Schaub can start slow and not have to mount a furious comeback to win.

I also see the Titans as another team that’s quit on their coach. This locker room was clearly Pro-Vince Young and didn’t like how Fisher handled the situation. They’ve put up no effort on either side of the ball, not even on defense where they were once amazing, since Young was benched and placed on IR. Out of the playoff race, they have no need to try. Finally, they’re on a 6 game losing streak right now and this line doesn’t seem to take that into account much. These two teams aren’t evenly matched. This would be a 3+ unit pick if I trusted the Texans’ ability to win. They seem to invent ways to lose.

Indianapolis Colts 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 27

Spread: Indianapolis -4.5

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 1 unit (+100)

Out of the last 17 times these two teams have met, 15 of them were decided by 8 points or less. That doesn’t do us a ton of good with a 5 point line, but it’s something to keep in mind. This game will be close. I think the Colts are clearly the superior team here. They only lost in Jacksonville earlier this year because of a 59 yard field goal by the Jaguars. That’s what we call luck.

Peyton Manning carved up this secondary last time these two met, which isn’t a surprise because everyone carves up this secondary. Jason Campbell looked like a Pro Bowler last week. In a must win game (for the division), I expect the Colts to play their A game to match the Jaguars A game (which they always play against the Colts) and that the Colts’ A game will win out.

For the record, the Colts have won 12-5 of their last 17 against the Jaguars. However, given my 2-11 record betting on Jaguars games, I’m not putting any more than a unit on their games. I wave the white flag. I have no idea how to pick their games.

 

St. Louis Rams 26 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Spread: -3 St. Louis

Pick against spread: St. Louis 2 units (-220)

Cassel is expected to start in this one, but I still like the Rams to win. I think the Chiefs are being overvalued right now, as road favorites against a good young home team. They looked awful last week, but that’s not Brodie Croyle’s fault, entirely. I still think they would have been killed even with Cassel. Now, with Cassel coming back, the public is regarding him as the messiah, the answer to all the Chiefs problems, and disregarding the fact that they haven’t beaten anyone of note.

The Chiefs most impressive win was a 7 point victory over the early season form Chargers, which is nothing like beating them late in the season. Their most impressive road victory, where they are a mere 1-5, as at Cleveland and Jake Delhomme week 2 by 2. That’s their only road victory. Does that sound like a team that should be favorites on the road?

The Rams, meanwhile, are undervalued. They have been all year, posting a 9-4 record against the spread. However, their loss in New Orleans last week looked worse than it was. That was simply a case of a rookie quarterback in Sam Bradford not understanding Gregg Williams’ complex scheme or being able to handle the noise in the Superdome.

In addition, there’s the motivation factor for Kansas City. They’re coming off a bad loss, a heartbreaking beat down, essentially their Super Bowl, their chance to prove everyone that they were the best in the division and that their week 1 victory over the Chargers was a fluke. They might not be focused for a 6-7 team coming off a bad looking loss to the Saints. The Chiefs supporting cast might also not try at 100% with Cassel coming back, regarding Cassel as the messiah and the answer to all of their problems. This is especially bad because Cassel is only as good as his supporting cast. That’s the type of quarterback he is.

Update: This line has moved to -3 St. Louis because Matt Cassel has been moved to a game time decision. I still like St. Louis for 2, especially if Brodie Croyle does start for the Chiefs. 

Buffalo Bills 16 Miami Dolphins 10 Upset Pick (+193)

Spread: -5.5 Miami

Pick against spread: Buffalo 5 units (+500)

Miami won last week over the once mighty Jets. However, in 6 chances in the Tony Sparano era, the Dolphins haven’t once covered as a favorite after winning straight up as an underdog. In 7 chances in the Tony Sparano era, the Dolphins haven’t once won as favorites of 3.5 or more.

In a situation much like this one (at home, 5.5 point favorites, coming off a SU win as an underdog) they fell flat on their faces against the Browns and lost by 3. The Bills just beat the Browns, in case you were wondering. The Dolphins are 1-5 this year after a win and are 1-5 at home.

Plus, I’m not convinced that the Bills aren’t the better team and can‘t win straight up. In the Dolphins win over the Jets last week, Chad Henne completed 5 (count ‘em 5) passes. This is one week after having thrown 3 picks. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who I’m not a fan of, is probably the better quarterback right now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Detroit Lions 14

Spread: -6 Tampa Bay

Pick against spread: Detroit 3 units (+300)

Thanks to maybe some luck, the Buccaneers remained undefeated against teams with losing records last week. The Buccaneers have kind of been the team that does exactly what they’re supposed to. They’ve beaten all of the teams with losing records and lost to all of the teams with winning records.

The Lions are a bad team. With Drew Stanton at quarterback, there’s no denying that. However, the Buccaneers have already played close games with Cincinnati (24-21), Cleveland (17-14), and Arizona (38-35), in addition to close games against slightly better teams (Washington 17-16) and (St. Louis 18-17).

They’ve only won 3 games by more than a field goal (Carolina twice and San Francisco). I think given that they’ve struggled to beat bad teams by more than a field goal, they could have trouble covering this 6 point spread. Also, the Lions are great at back door covers. They lose a lot of close games, 6 of their 10 losses by less than 6. They also have the league’s best record against the spread at 9-4. Another interesting trend, the Buccaneers are 2-11 at home ATS in the Raheem Morris era. That’s weird, but it can’t be ignored.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Carolina Panthers 17 Upset Pick (+130)

Spread: -2.5 Carolina

Pick against spread: Arizona 3 units (-330)

Another toilet bowl game. I originally just wanted to take the home team, as the Cardinals are a west coast team traveling three time zones for a 1 PM game. However, I’m not betting the Panthers as favorites. Teams that win 2 or fewer games in a season are 1-10 as favorites since 2002. I know 2.5 points isn’t a lot, but for a 2 or fewer win team, it is a lot. I’m willing to bet, in those other 11 games in which terrible teams were favored, that they weren’t favored by much more than 2.5.

Also, the Cardinals did look decent last week against the Broncos, as they were “missing” Derek Anderson due to injury. The Broncos threw 3 picks in that game. The Broncos may be terrible, but at the same time, so are the Panthers. Jimmy Clausen could easily throw a few picks in this one and Arizona’s defense, if there’s one thing they do well, it’s score defensive touchdowns.

The Cardinals have scored 7 this year, most in the league by far. It’s not even close. Next closest are a few teams with 4. The Cardinals also rank 3^rd in the league in interception return yards (bet you never would have guessed that). Not surprisingly, the Panthers are 2^nd in the league to Cincinnati in most defensive touchdowns allowed. They rank 6^th in the league in most yards allowed off of interception returns. I love this matchup.

Finally, I think the Panthers have given up. They’re not showing any effort. They’ve quit on their coach who quit on them week 1, after he didn’t receive a contract extension. They really seem to be aiming for the #1 pick rather than winning any games right now. Even quarterback Jimmy Clausen seems to want this team to get the #1 pick. If they draft Andrew Luck, Clausen gets traded to a different team and gets a much better supporting cast.

New Orleans Saints 27 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick (+105)

Spread: Baltimore -1

Pick against spread: New Orleans 3 units (-330)

I haven’t liked the Ravens since week 1 of this season and that Monday Night near loss showed why. I’m not a fan of their game plans. Ray Rice is one of the best running backs and the league and Willis McGahee is one of the best backups. This should be a running team. I know they’re trying to get Flacco involved more, but it seems like they’re trying too hard. Even though they led big for most of the game, they kept going to the air, throwing 33 times to 24 runs.

They’ve passed 433 times to 383 runs this year and often pass with big leads. It’s part of the reason why they can’t hold onto leads. Why in the world would they pass on 3^rd and 2 with an 8 point lead and 2:42 left with the opponent having no timeouts? That touchdown to tie it doesn’t happen if they run there and take 35-40 seconds more off the clock and if they convert on that short running play, forget about it. Game over.

Also, why don’t they ever block the safety blitz. Pittsburgh and Houston ran it several times in those two games and each them they ran it, something bad happened for the Ravens. It was like they couldn’t figure it out. They just stood there confused like why is that safety blitzing? Joe Flacco is one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL so that’s a bad combination. If they can’t manage a simple safety blitz, how do they expect to block Gregg Williams’ exotic blitzes, especially with a shortened week (after MNF).

This team hasn’t been able to close out teams all year, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, New England, Atlanta, Houston, they’ve blown leads in all of those. It’s not terrible when it’s against a bad team like Houston or Buffalo, if they can still win, but Pittsburgh, New England, and Atlanta have all beaten them in comeback fashion late. In fact, which of their wins has been the most impressive? Charlie Batch and the Steelers by 3? The Jets who had more penalties than yards in the first half week 1 and still only lost by 1? Tampa Bay? Miami? Those are the only 4 winning teams they’ve beaten. I don’t give them much of a shot against New Orleans, provided New Orleans shows up.

New Orleans is always at their best against good teams. They haven’t had a particularly tough schedule this year, but they show up for big games. Beating Pittsburgh week 8 was a perfect example of that and this team hasn’t looked back since. I expect them to give their A game here and beat the Ravens, whether convincingly or in a late comeback.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick (+136)

Spread: -2.5 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 2 units (+200)

Like the Patriots’ offense, the only thing that can stop the Eagles’ offense is themselves. Unlike the Patriots offense, the Eagles do frequently stop themselves. Whether it be turnovers, poor game management, penalties, sacks, this team shoots itself in the foot offensively far too much. In 6 games since Vick returned from injury, this team has scored 202 points. Even if you count their 59 point outburst against the Redskins as an outlier, that’s still 143 points in 5 games.

The Giants allowed 27 to the Eagles the last time these two met, so, relatively, they did a good job. However, they still lost by 10. They could have won, but they turned the ball over 5 times. That’s been the story of the season for the Giants. Believe it or not, the Giants, despite being 9-4, lead the league with 33 turnovers. The Eagles are tied for 2^nd with Pittsburgh in most turnovers forced, 2^nd to, not surprisingly, the Giants.

In Eli Manning’s last 3 games against the Eagles, he’s turned the balls over 8 times. The Eagles are going to get Asante Samuel back, their leader in interceptions. Samuel leads the league with 7 picks despite missing 4 games this year, including the last 3. He had 3 takeaways the last time these two met, including two picks of Manning. Samuel will also help in coverage, something this team has lacked since he went down.

Samuel’s return will be key as the Giants got both Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith back last week against the Vikings. However, that didn’t help Eli much. Eli threw 2 picks to one touchdown and might not have won if it weren’t for a few big plays by his running backs and Tarvaris Jackson’s ineptness. Ahmad Bradshaw hurt his wrist last week, but is expected to play in this one, forming a two headed monster with Brandon Jacobs that will be tough to stop.

The Giants haven’t been terribly impressive recently. Last week was hardly the first of their rough 2^nd half games. They started the 2^nd half with sloppy losses against Dallas and Philadelphia, before getting dominated for 2 and a half quarters by the Jaguars, in a game they would eventually win. They then beat the non-existent Redskins by a ton and last week’s win against Minnesota. The schedule says that their 3-2 in their last 5 and 9-4 on the season, outscoring their opponents 70-13 in their last 10 quarters. However, I don’t think this team is as good as that sounds and as good as this line indicates.

I don’t think there’s any way the Giants should be 2.5 point favorites here, even at home, after they lost to the Eagles by 10 in sloppy fashion. You could say the Giants won’t be sloppy this week, but remember the Eagles were sloppy against the Giants as well, and I’d rather take my chances with the Eagles not being sloppy then the team that leads the league in turnovers, the New York Giants. Also, you saw that stat, Eli has 8 picks in his last 3 against the Eagles. That will almost certainly continue this week with Asante Samuel returning. That’s the last thing the Giants defense wants, the ball in the Eagles offense’s hands more that it needs to be. The only reason this is only a two unit is because I could see this being a sloppy game all around with tons of big plays, turnovers, missed tackles, blown coverages, and those games could go either way.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Seattle Seahawks 16

Spread: -6 Atlanta

Pick against spread: Atlanta 3 units (+300)

The Falcons aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home and the Seahawks are much better at home than they are on the road and Atlanta to Seattle is one of the longest trips in football (Miami to Seattle, Jacksonville to Seattle, Tampa Bay to Seattle, New England to San Diego). However, the Seahawks are really showing themselves to be a bad team these last few weeks so I don’t have any problems taking the Falcons -6 here on the road.

Falcons didn’t look too bad on the road against a bad team last week. The Seahawks have lost all 7 of their games by 10 points or more. They’ve won 4 of their 6 games by double digits as well, but when they lose, they lose big. And I expect them to lose so I have to think they won’t cover this 6 point spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 New York Jets 13

Spread: -6 Pittsburgh

Pick against spread: NY Jets 2 units (+200)

The Jets offense is sputtering right now, big time. I guess this is what they get for sleepwalking through a cakewalk part of their schedule and then expecting to be able to turn it on when it matters. They haven’t beaten a winning team since week 3 and the only two winning teams they’ve beaten, they lost to in revenge games (Patriots, Dolphins). I don’t expect them to be able to beat the Steelers, who always come focused for big opponents.

However, I’m not just picking a winner here. I’m picking against the spread. The Steelers offense isn’t doing so hot right now. They only scored 19 against the Bills, 13 against the Ravens, and scored 23 last week against the Bengals, but 14 of those came off pick sixes. Carson Palmer threw more touchdowns than Ben Roethlisberger (3-0), but Palmer threw 2 of his to the other team. This spread doesn’t indicate that the Steelers offense is struggling. Against a Jets defense that is still playing like one of the best in the league (except for that Pats game), that’s not a good sign.

Now, the offensive problems in Pittsburgh aren’t Big Ben’s fault, necessarily. His line isn’t giving him any time. Even the Bengals were able to put up a consistent pass rush against him last week. He’s playing with a broken foot and broken nose. This is a bad matchup for the Steelers against a Jets defense that can take away the Steelers running game, force Big Ben into 3^rd and longs and then blitz him and get to him a few times.

I expect this to be a hard fought defensive game and not one that’s going to be decided by more than 6 either way. I like the Steelers to win, but not cover. The Steelers have impressive wins against the Falcons and the Ravens this year, both coming by 6 or less and the Falcons game, which was decided by 6, went into overtime. In fact, 5 of their 9 wins have come by 6 or less and against worse teams than the Jets. Teams like Cincinnati, Miami, and Buffalo have all kept it within 6 and Cincinnati could have done it again last week if it weren’t for the two pick sixes.

Oakland Raiders 21 Denver Broncos 13

Spread: -9 Oakland

Pick against spread: Denver 1 unit (-110)

Call me crazy, but I think the Broncos were actually better off with Josh McDaniels, at least for the rest of the season. No offense to Eric Studesville, but Studesville is a running backs coach, not a head coach. McDaniels was their offensive coordinator too, so the Broncos playbook probably isn’t very complex right now and their gameplan really must be lacking. Simply put, this team doesn’t have the leadership to win games right now.

Kyle Orton, naturally, looked lost against the Cardinals last week, going 19 for 41 for 166 yards and 3 picks. This was one week after he went 9 for 28 and 117 yards against the Chiefs. The passing offense is their only strength. Without it, I see no way they can win this game and having to face the Raiders strong pass rush and Nnamdi Asomugha isn’t going to help him turn it around. Orton is terrible against strong pass rushes and Asomugha should shut down Brandon Lloyd again. Lloyd caught 1 ball for 46 yards against the Raiders week 7. There’s a reason Orton was 12 for 29 for 198 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in that game.

I never like taking the Raiders as big favorites. They’re 2-10 as favorites since 2006. However, I’m doing it here. The Broncos are that bad and the Raiders are playing better this year than any year since 2003. However, it’s only a two unit.

Update: Line taken down because Kyle Orton might miss this game and be replaced with Tim Tebow. If the line changes or if Tebow starts, I’ll make a new pick. 

Update: The line has been re-posted unchanged. Studesville is going to try to go with an injured Kyle Orton over Tim Tebow. An injured Orton is all the more reason why the Broncos won’t cover here. Orton is set for another terrible game. Raiders for 3 it is. 

Update: Tebow is expected to start for the Broncos and the line has been pushed to 7.5. This becomes a 1 unit pick for the Raiders because of how bad the Raiders are at covering large spreads and because I don’t know exactly how good (or bad) Tebow will fare in this one, whereas I was pretty sure Orton would struggle. 

Update: This line has know shifted to -9. I like Denver now, but only slightly more than Oakland. I was having a lot of trouble with this won. I can’t pick the Raiders here because of how bad they’ve been as a favorite in recent years. I think Tebow can do a decent job and keep this within 9. 

New England Patriots 31 Green Bay Packers 21

Spread: New England -14

Pick against spread: Green Bay 1 unit (+100)

Matt Flynn will start in this one for the Packers with Aaron Rodgers out with a concussion. This line, consequently, is at -14. I almost never bet on 2 touchdown favorites, but I almost did in this situation because of how dominant the Patriots have been in recent weeks. 

However, Matt Flynn isn’t terrible and the Packers will be playing at 110% to compensate for Rodgers’ absence and the Pats might overlook Flynn and this very talented Packers team. Flynn was 15 for 26 for 177 yards last week, but will be better with a week of practice with the first team this week. I’m going Green Bay for 1. 

Minnesota Vikings 19 Chicago Bears 17 Upset Pick (+305)

Spread: -9 Chicago

Pick against spread: Minnesota 4 units

Joe Webb is expected to start this one for Minnesota. Brett Favre could still possibly start if he makes major improvements in the next two days, but that’s not likely. Tarvaris Jackson, meanwhile, has been placed on IR breaking his 1 consecutive starts streak. 

This line is very large. The Bears have only won 3 of their 9 games by 9 or more. Also, I think they are a “when it rains it pours” type team. They started the season 3-0 before a humiliating loss to the Giants. They then followed that up by a win over the pathetic Panthers, in which they didn’t look great, before looking terrible in losses to Chicago and Washington.

They followed that up with 5 straight wins before a humiliating 36-7 loss to the Patriots at home. Now, I expect that they could continue to struggle after their loss. Also, remember that I have not been impressed with this team all season. Their most impressive win was over the Eagles, who could have easily won if Andy Reid could manage a clock and if Asante Samuel had played. Other than that, their only other 2 wins over .500 teams were against Tyler Thigpen and the Dolphins and the Packers who killed themselves with penalties.

The Vikings, meanwhile, have been playing better of late. They didn’t look good last week, but they were probably distracted with all of the Favre drama and the Metrodome drama. I expect them to bounce back this week back at home in Minnesota (in an outdoor game). Also, remember in a snow type game, I think the Vikings have the advantage. They run the ball better and Jay Cutler has historically struggled in the snow.

The home team has won this matchup 14 of the last 16 times, another good sign for the Vikings. The Bears typically struggle on the road in December. They are 8-27 ATS in their last 35 December road games. This is also a Monday Night home game for the Vikings which means they will be playing with more effort, even though they aren’t technically in their home stadium. They also will be playing with more effort than the last time they lost by 14 to the Bears in Chicago, when they were coached by Brad Childress.

Finally, this could be a trap game for the Bears. The Vikings are playing with more energy for new coach Leslie Frazier, but are going to be without their top 2 quarterbacks and coming off a bad looking loss, so they could be overlooked by the Bears, especially since the Bears beat the Vikings and Brad Childress (who they quit on) by 14 the next time these two met in Chicago. The Bears have the Jets and Packers in their next two weeks so those are the games they will be looking forward to. Plus, there’s a tiny chance Favre could play in which case we would be getting a ton of line value. I like the Vikings to win and love them to cover. Only reason this is a 4 unit and not a 5 is because I don’t trust Webb that much. 

 

 

WR Doug Baldwin- Seattle

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%

Sidney Rice is done for the since so you would figure Doug Baldwin, who already leads the team with 45 catches for 718 yards and 3 touchdowns, would get even more of the targets. You would be right as Baldwin once again led the way for the Seahawks on MNF with 7 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.

WR Demaryius Thomas- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.6%

He might not have the best hands, but Denver’s wide receivers are very thin, so he’s actually Denver’s best and most targeted receiver. In the last 2 weeks, he’s caught 11 passes for 222 yards and 3 scores. Look for that to continue.

QB TJ Yates- Houston

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.9%

This TJ Yates kid isn’t too bad. He threw for 300 yards and 2 picks against one interception against Cincinnati this week. He’s got plenty of weapons to work with and a good offensive line and defense supporting him. There’s some upside with him as a QB2. If you need a quarterback, you can do a lot worse than picking up Yates.

WR Kevin Walter- Houston

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.6%

Walter was Matt Schaub’s favorite weapon the last time Andre Johnson was out. Johnson is out again and even with TJ Yates at quarterback, Walter still has some value. Yates isn’t too bad and he seemed to like throwing to Walter against Cincinnati, when he caught 6 passes for 76 yards and a score.

 

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.0%

Greg Jennings is done for at least 2-3 weeks with an MCL tear so it’s next man up in Green Bay’s explosive offense. The man to benefit most figures to be long time Packer Donald Driver, who caught 4 passes for 74 yards last week in the game in which Jennings got hurt.

RB Chris Ivory- New Orleans

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Mark Ingram isn’t healthy and Ivory was the lead back in his absence this week with 15 carries for 67 yards. This could be more than a one week thing given Ingram’s injury (turf toe).

WR Damian Williams- Tennessee

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.1%

Matt Hasselbeck got hurt and Jake Locker came in. Locker’s favorite target was Damian Williams, who saw 10 targets for 4 catches and 62 yards. The Titans haven’t had a legitimate #1 receiver since Kenny Britt went down and Williams has the most upside of any of their receivers. Locker could be the starter for the rest of the season, which would be a good thing for Williams’ fantasy value.

RB Keiland Williams- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

With Kevin Smith out, Keiland Williams got the bulk of the carries over Maurice Morris, rushing for 43 yards on 12 carries. There could be some upside going forward here.

 

 

Week 15 Pickups

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on. Views held in write ups do not necessarily represent the views of footballfanspot.com.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers  –  (5)  12 – 0   next at Kansas City Chiefs

Like expected, they are still undefeated.  The Packers defense was also very predictable, once again doing exactly what had to be done to win the game.  This week will be a very easy week, a chance for them to cruise and rest up for the Bears.  We will be back here next week with a 13 – 0 Packers team.

(2)  2. New Orleans Saints  –  9 – 3   next at Tennessee Titans

Few facts about the Saints. They will score no matter what you do (lowest of the season is 21) but they will also let you score some. You cannot stop Drew Brees and Co. completely but you can slow them down and score a lot on them as the Packers did. The Saints have two games lead over the Falcons with a game against the Falcons in week 16. The Saints will be most dangerous opponent facing the Packers come playoff.

(5)  3. Pittsburgh Steelers  –  9 – 3   next vs Cleveland Browns

The Steelers were very impressive in their win over the Bengals.  A 35-7 beat down on a supposive divisional rival and a Bengals team that is still in the playoff picture as of this week.  The Steelers are getting their engines warmed up and are about to take it to a whole new level.  Taking the last 7 of 8 and has a schedule that looks very winnable.

(4)  4. Baltimore Ravens  –  9 – 3   next vs Indianapolis Colts

Another strong performance by the Ravens that struggled with consistency early season. As elites of the NFL do, the Ravens beat the Browns soundly despite missing Ray Lewis, the heart of the defense. Ray Rice had a field day, rushing for 204 yards while scoring once on the ground. The Ravens have good chance of winning the AFC North with four games remaining against the Colts, the Chargers, the Browns and the Bengals. 

(3)  5. New England Patriots  –  9 – 3   next at Washington Redskins

Even the Colts lit up the Pats’ secondary, eventually.  We can’t believe the Patriots didn’t cover the 20 last week. They were up 31-3, and the Colts were showing no signs of life. Why didn’t you run up the score like you usually do, Belichick!?  Even though they won, we were not impressed and this is why they still dropped a couple spots.

(6)  6. San Francisco 49ers  –  10 – 2   next at Arizona Cardinals

Wow, maybe we should get on the 49ers bandwagon. In the NFL, it is EXTREMELY hard to shut out anyone. But the 49ers managed to shutout the Rams. I mean sure it’s the Rams but still it is very impressive. The game against the Steelers in week 15 will be a key match-up for the 49ers as they can prove themselves and the league that they are ready to win the championship.

(9)  7. Houston Texans  –  9 – 3   next at Cincinnati Bengals

We were very impressed to see a TJ Yates led Houston Texan team beat Matty Ice and the Atlanta Falcons.  With Matt Schaub and Matt Lienartt out, the rest of the team stepped up and outlasted the Falcons 17-10.  Lets see how they move forward without Andre Johnson again for a couple weeks.  Having a tough match-up this week, we are watching to see how they do!!!

(NR)  8. Denver Broncos  –  7 – 5   next vs Chicago Bears

The UFB as a whole has finally decided to believe in Tebow.  Not only in him, but in a team that has stepped up and is playing harder with Tebow at the QB position.  It doesn’t matter who and how, but more on the fact they are winning!!!  Now in charge of the AFC West and as of now in the playoffs, lets see how they pull it off again this week.

 

(7)  9. Atlanta Falcons  –  7 – 5   next at Carolina Panthers

We don’t know if the Falcons have enough to make the playoff, especially with the game against the Panthers and the Saints left in their schedule. However, they have fixed multiple problems that have been dogged them such as inconsistency, underachieving to name a few. Even if they don’t make the playoff, this season would be valuable for Matt Ryan and the Co.

(14)  10. New York Jets  –  7 – 5   next vs Kansas City Chiefs

Sanchez buries Redskins late.  Rex Ryan knows they have to win out to make playoffs.  Jets are starting to show us they are the team we thought they were.  But key word was, starting.  They have a tough match-up against an up and down Chiefs team this week, but the Jets should fly high and continue their bid for a wildcard spot.

(8)  11. Dallas Cowboys  –  7 – 5   next vs New York Giants

A lot of confusion on what was going on with the coaching staff, but clock management and the use of a late timeout could of possibly cost them their game last weeks game against the Cardinals.  Still only one game up on the Giants and playing them this week.  Either they work on separating themselves or get themselves into a dog fight they really don’t want to be in.

(NR)  12. Tennessee Titans  –  7 – 5  next vs New Orleans Saints

Chris Johnson has finally warmed up, actually he has gotten hot.  The Titans have been winning behind the production of Johnson.  With the division with in reach due to the injuries in Houston, the Titans are playing great ball and are trying to make a strong run.

(11)  13. Detroit Lions  –  7 – 5   next vs Minnesota Vikings

Week after week this team has been slipping farther and farther.  This team keeps showing us why they are not going to be in the top 15 by the final week.  A team that went 5 – 0 in the first 5 weeks and then 2 – 5 the next 7 weeks are simply just falling apart.  With a very winnable game this week, lets see if they can show maturity or will they finish coming apart.

(10)  14. Cincinnati Bengals  –  7 – 5  next vs Houston Texans

Took a tough beat down from the Steelers.  It was probably the best thing to happen to this young team. Still in the playoff hunt, now this team can move forward and play even better ball.

(15)  15. New York Giants  –  6 – 6   next at Dallas Cowboys

We kind of get the feeling that the Giants’ close loss to the Packers could propel them to a strong run like they had in 2007 when they battled the Patriots to the very end in Week 17. Or maybe they’ll fold.

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

 David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Garett Krobot of CJ Sports NFL Talk

 

12/3/11 4 PM ET

Georgia at LSU

C Ben Jones (Georgia) #60

One of the better center prospects in the country, the physical 6-3 315 pound Ben Jones is a great interior blocker and has great chemistry with quarterback Aaron Murray. He’s a big part of the reason why Georgia is on the roll they are on now.

DT DeAngelo Tyson (Georgia) #94

A big run stuffer in Georgia’s 3-4 defense, Tyson lines up at both nose tackle and end and could play either 3-4 end or 4-3 nose tackle at the next level at 6-2 305. Tyson looks like a late rounder and a rotation player. On the season, he has 20 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and 1.5 sacks on the season.

 

12/3/11 8 PM ET

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

OT Levy Adcock (Oklahoma State) #73

Came into the season with high expectations, but the big, physical Adcock has struggled with speed rushers on the season and doesn’t look athletic enough to stay at left tackle at the next level. The 6-6 325 pounder should be a solid right tackle or guard at the next level and looks like a day 2 pick, probably in round 3. He’ll be matched up with the speedy Frank Alexander, a fringe first rounder, in this one.

OT Donald Stephenson (Oklahoma) #59

An underrated player, the 6-6 305 pound Stephenson isn’t the most athletic, but he’s done a good job keeping Landry Jones protected this season and is worth a look as a day 3 pick and a swing tackle at the next level. 

 

32. Carolina Panthers 1-11

Congratulations to the Carolina Panthers. It looked bad early when they led 14-0 in Seattle, but they found a way to lose and are still the favorites to land the #1 overall draft pick and draft Andrew Luck. Lucky for them, John Fox didn’t trade away their 2011 first round pick in the 2010 draft like he did in each of the last two years.

With Luck to the Panthers becoming more and more of a foregone conclusion, Jimmy Clausen being traded does too. Clausen will probably be able to be had for a 3^rd or 4^th rounder and will be a bargain as a one-time potential first round pick who slipped and got stuck with a crap supporting cast in his rookie year. Let’s see where Clausen could land.

Miami- I like this idea a lot. Clausen is cheap competition for Henne for the starting quarterback job in 2011. Clausen is better than any competition they currently have on the roster.

Cincinnati- Carson Palmer is done as a functional starter. Clausen gives them a cheaper, more experienced option at quarterback rather than drafting a rookie in the first.

Tennessee- Vince Young is likely gone in the offseason, but they may have too low of a draft pick to be able to draft one of the top 4 quarterbacks. Or they might just not like Locker or Newton.

San Francisco- Like the Titans, they might not be able to get Luck or Mallett and might not like Locker or Newton.

Seattle- See above.

Oakland- They need a quarterback, but have no first round pick.

Washington- Clausen could be groomed as a future (or near future) replacement for Donovan McNabb.

31. Arizona Cardinals 3-9

Derek Anderson may put his “heart and soul into this,” but he’s still not very good. His recent 7 for 20 for 91 yards and a pick performance against the Rams was absolutely pathetic. The Cardinals need to see what backup John Skelton has. Max Hall doesn’t look like an NFL signal caller and Anderson looks like an NFL signal caller after a crazy night on the town.

 Skelton is a raw rookie out of Fordham, but their season is obviously over. They need to evaluate the kid to see if drafting a quarterback like Ryan Mallett (assuming they can’t get Andrew Luck) is a necessity in the first round.

For a funny parity video of Derek Anderson’s rant, click here.

30. Buffalo Bills 2-10

Poor Bills. Not only are they out of Luck, literally, but now it looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick is significantly worse than they once realized. Bills fans, it doesn’t look like you’ll be able to take the bags off your heads any time soon. Fitzy was 4 for 9 for 9 yards in the first half with a pick, before putting up some slightly better numbers in the second half against a prevent defense when it didn’t matter.

29. Cincinnati Bengals 2-10

Everyone in the world knew when the Saints lined up on 4^th and 2 inside the 10, down by 3 with mere minutes left, that it was obviously a fake and an attempt to try to catch the Bengals off sides for the first down. Everyone, that is, except Bengals defensive lineman Pat Sims, who bit on the fake and gave up the first to the Saints, who would go on to score and win.

The Bengals have actually put up a nice effort at times this year, almost mounting a comeback against the Steelers and Colts, in addition to the Saints game, but stupid mistakes have them at 2-10 and on a 9 game losing streak.

28. Detroit Lions 2-10

The football gods hate the Lions. I have I said that before. This time, the Lions, down to their 3^rd string quarterback because of injuries, led the 8-3 Bears when Ndamukong Suh’s perfectly legal hit on Jay Cutler drew a penalty flag and eventually led to a Bears touchdown in a 24-20 Bears win. This is the 2^nd time this year they have lost to the Bears because of a bullshit call (I know the Calvin Johnson play was following the rule, but the rule is stupid).

They are now 5-47 in their last 52 games. They’ve had injuries to Matt Stafford (twice), his backup Shaun Hill, Jahvid Best and have lost 6 games by less than a touchdown. Many experts said this Lions team was talented enough to win 7-8 games this year. They were right. They were talented enough. Just not lucky enough.

27. Denver Broncos 3-9

2 weeks ago I told the saga of Josh McDaniels and then added an extra paragraph to it after the “failgate” incident in which former Patriots assistant Josh McDaniels hired the guy who shot the tapes from Spygate and then that camera man was caught taping the then 1-6 49ers’ practices and the Broncos still lost.

Now, it seems the McDaniels saga is over. McDaniels has been fired, the 3^rd coach this season to be fired. With Wade Phillips, Brad Childress, and McDaniels all out in one season, I’m running out of coaches to make fun of. I would tell the saga of Josh McDaniels again, but I just did that two weeks ago.

I’ll just conclude with this. I’m still convinced McDaniels was a Patriot spy sent over to destroy the Denver Broncos. It’s the only explanation. And McDaniels did well. Also I love interim coach Eric Studesville’s name. Studesville. Sounds like the nickname a guy would give himself when he’s trying to impress a girl.

“Hey there, baby, my name’s Eric, you want to take a trip to Studesville?”

With Tim Tebow in town, Denver becomes the front runner for Tebow fanatic/stalker Jon Gruden. As long as it gets him off of MNF, I’m happy.

26. Cleveland Browns 5-7

Jake Delhomme is 2-0 as a starter since Colt McCoy went down?! What is this madness?! Delhomme hasn’t been good, but it’s just been a case of his competition being worse. Both Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne looked like Delhomme against the Browns in the past few weeks. Maybe they watched a bit too much of his gametape and their brains exploded.

25. San Francisco 49ers 4-8

Time for the weekly bashing of the NFC West. The 4-8 49ers are only 2 games back and with 3 more division games left, still very much alive in the division despite the fact that their starting quarterback sucks and their best offensive player Frank Gore is done for the season and has been replaced with a 5^th round rookie and a 31 year old Brian Westbrook who was left for dead this offseason.

On a side note, Mike Singletary is going back to Alex Smith this week, citing experience. Experience doing what? Losing? Sucking? Being terrible? All 3 49er quarterbacks are terrible, but at least be consistent with your quarterback. A team with two quarterbacks is a team with no quarterback.

This team needs consistency at the position and someone to turn to as a leader week in and week out. The offensive line needs to block for the same guy every week. The running back needs to take the hand off from a different guy every week. The receiver especially need to catch passes from the same guy every week. Quarterbacks should only be changed for logical reasons. Not for the hell of it. I don’t like this move.

24. Washington Redskins 5-7

Did this team even play last week? If I remember correctly, the Giants were playing a high school team last week. Well, they must have been on their bye and I don’t do write ups when teams are on bye.

Instead, I’ll make fun of ESPN some more.

1. Every week, ESPN “experts” make their picks and then they are compared with Sportsnation’s picks. ESPN’s best record wise is Mike Golic, who is 122-70 on the season. In addition to being 4 games worse than I am, this 122-70 record is the only record by any of the 8 ESPN experts that’s better than Sportsnation. Basically what this shows is that the average fan at home is better than 7 of 8 of ESPN’s finest.

2. Harder to find on ESPN’s page are Mike Ditka, Keyshawn Johnson, Chris Carter, and Tom Jackson’s picks. However this shouldn’t be harder to find, as they all have fairly respectable records. Ditka is 116-76, Keyshawn 118-74, and Carter 119-73. Not terribly impressive, but not terrible. Tom Jackson is actually 130-62, which is four games better than me. Why are these harder to find than the pages that shows that Sportsnation is better than their experts? That’s like meeting a girl at a bar and telling her that you’re unemployed and going on and on about how you don’t work, but then mentioning as an afterthought that you started a multi-million dollar company out of your dorm room in college and don’t have to work.

3. Mike Golic and Mike Greenberg make what they call their “stone cold lead pipe locks”. Mike Golic’s record is 14-11-1, but Greeny’s is 7-17-2 and two weeks ago was 4-17-1. Well at least he’s improving. Good thing Greeny gets paid a ton of money by ESPN to make picks because otherwise he’d be broke because he lost so much money betting on sports.

23. Tennessee Titans 5-7

I never thought I’d see it, but a Jeff Fisher team has given up. Ever since the Vince Young incident, this team has shown no heart. A lot of that was blamed on Rusty Smith in the Houston game, but with Kerry Collins at quarterback for the Jacksonville, you can’t blame the quarterback solely for this one. They’ve given up.

It’s interesting when you consider how good Vince Young’s record was as a starter with the Titans. He never put up big stats, but he could always rally the troops and win. With him gone, they aren’t showing much hustle. I never thought I’d see the day, but this Tennessee team has fallen apart without Vince Young.

22. Houston Texans 5-7

In 2008 this team fell to 3-7 despite having high expectations early, but won 5 of their last 6, giving them hope for next year. In 2009 this team fell to 5-7 despite having high expectations, but won their last 4, giving them hope for next year. Now in 2010, they have fallen to 5-7 again despite high expectations and could win 3 or 4 of their last 4 to set the bar high for next year again. Translation, I won’t believe this team will make the playoffs until they do.

I don’t think Gary Kubiak is the right coach for this team. Why else would they be so bad in close games? Unfortunately if they go 3-1 or better in these next 4, Kubiak could be around next year again.

21. Dallas Cowboys 4-8

Dallas Cowboys fans have to be kicking themselves right now. Yes, their team is playing good football, but if Jason Garrett can have this team at 3-1, with the one loss coming by 3 to New Orleans, with Jon Kitna at quarterback, imagine how good they could have been if Garrett were their coach all year, including when Romo was healthy. Once again, I have no clue why Wade Phillips was their coach for so long.

20. Oakland Raiders 6-6

I would like to congratulate the Oakland Raiders on winning 6 games in a season for the first time since before Al Davis was undead. They still have issues at quarterback and a lot of their wins came as a result of a fairly easy schedule, and they have still looked terrible at times, but they’ve gotten their 6 wins. With 4 to go, could they possibly win (gasp) 7 games!

19. Miami Dolphins 6-6

Chad Henne probably watched too much game tape of Jake Delhomme before the Browns game, because he really did play like him. In all seriousness, I think this team is going to be looking for a new quarterback this offseason, even if it’s only someone to compete with Henne for the job in camp. This was supposed to be Henne’s breakout year. Instead, he’s led the talented Dolphins to a mere 6-6 record and has 15 picks to 12 touchdowns.

This last performance was his absolute worst of the season, throwing 3 picks against the Browns, 1 of which set up a game winning field goal for the Browns to win it 13-10. They would be smart to add a quarterback like Jimmy Clausen (for a 3^rd or 4^th rounder) or draft a mid round quarterback this offseason.

18. Seattle Seahawks 6-6

The Seahawks by no means played well against the Panthers in a 31-14 victory. The Panthers simply didn’t try. I still think the Rams are the best team in this division and will win the division, but that’s yet to be determined.

The Rams/Seahawks game week 17 should be a very interesting one for the division. If the Seahawks win, a team having to go into Seattle in the first round is no easy task, but the Seahawks should still roll over pretty easily. The Rams will be a tougher test. They’re great at home as well and have the better, more complete, and better coached team.

17. Minnesota Vikings 5-7

Following the Vikings’ wins over the Redskins and Bills and the Cowboys 3-1 record in 4 games with Jason Garrett, I would not be surprised if every team in the league fired their head coach in an attempt to win next week. Oh wait, I used that one last week. Well, maybe instead I’ll take what could be the final look at Brett Favre’s career after he hurt his throwing shoulder on the first throw of the game against the Bills.

Drafted in 1991 with the 33^rd pick, in the 2^nd round, by the Atlanta Falcons and traded a year later to Green Bay for a 1992 1^st round pick.

Atlanta used that pick on Tony Smith, Favre’s former college teammate. Smith was the Falcons starting running back in 1992, averaging 3.8 YPC and then was moved special teams to return kicks and punts for 2 years before his career ended. Whoops!

If Favre doesn’t play for the rest of the season and retires, that will mean he would have ended 4 straight seasons with an interception, only fitting for the career leader in interceptions all time.

Luckily for Favre, no one really cares about how many picks he threw because he holds just about every one passing record, including most passing attempts, most passing completions, most passing yards, most passing touchdowns, most games started at quarterback, most consecutive games started at quarterback, basically any record that combines passing and longevity.

His most famous record is his 297 straight career starts, 321 if you count playoffs, spanning close to 19 years. By comparison, Cal Ripken’s streak spanned 16 years in the MLB, which is a less physically demanding sport. Not to take anything away from Cal Ripken (or Tony Stark), but Favre is the real Iron Man.

Despite his long career, Favre says he has never suffered an injury like the one he did against the Bills this week, namely an SC joint sprain in his shoulder. According to Harvard Health Publications, SC joint sprains occur most often “when a driver’s chest strikes the steering wheel during an auto accident, or when a person is crushed by an object.”

Speaking of crushed by an object, that “object” was 250 pound Arthur Moats of the Buffalo Bills. Moats is a rookie 6^th rounder out of William and Mary. When Brett Favre was drafted, Moats had just turned 3. When Favre was getting drafted, Moats probably was just out of diapers, still had training wheels on his bike, and hadn’t started school.

Of course there’s about a 95% chance that this “eulogy” on Favre’s career is at least 4 weeks too soon. With the Vikings out of it, I don’t think Leslie Frazier has the guts to bench Favre if he’s healthy. I know I wouldn’t. And Favre is going to do everything he can to play this week, even if the game doesn’t mean anything, because that’s the type of player he is. Stubborn ‘til the very end, and great because of it.

 

16. St. Louis Rams 6-6

The best team in the NFC West in my opinion, the Rams have been exceeding expectations all year, almost every week, as they are 9-3 against the spread. That stat doesn’t have a ton of relevance but it does show they play harder than expected every week and there’s a lot that can be said about a young team that can do that. They have their biggest test of the season this week, going into New Orleans, where division rival Seattle lost by 15 earlier this year.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-5

If the Jaguars win this week against the Raiders, they will be able to eliminate the Colts from the division week 15. However, I still don’t think this team can win that Colts game. The Colts are a better team than they appear and the only reason the Jags won earlier this year was that they got a desperation late field goal, one of two improbable victories for them this year, if you count the Hail Mary game. This team doesn’t have a single win that has impressed me this year and they should be an easy out in the playoffs if they do end up making it, because they can’t stop anyone through the air.

14. New York Giants 8-4

Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks could both miss this week’s game against the surging Minnesota Vikings in Minnesota, as could several key linemen. After that game, they’ve got Philly and Green Bay in Green Bay, before going to Washington week 17. Their second half swoon could still in be intact despite winning their last two against the overrated Jaguars in comeback form and the non-existent Redskins. This team is going to have a tough time making the playoffs over teams like New Orleans, Green Bay, and Chicago.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-5

The Buccaneers still have not beaten a team with a winning record, but they hung with the Falcons until the very end, which is a positive. A negative, however, both starting cornerback Aqib Talib, the most underrated cover man in the league, and starting center Jeff Faine, a Pro Bowl caliber interior blocker, are both done for the season with injuries. With 3 more games left against teams with losing records I could still see them sneaking into the playoffs, but they won’t get anywhere once there. Buccaneers fans don’t have anything to feel down about however. This team is a year ahead of schedule, remember. They weren’t supposed to be good this year.

12. Kansas City Chiefs 8-4

Feel free to debate this point, but their 10-6 win over the Broncos didn’t really make them look like a team that can win a playoff game. Nonetheless, their easy schedule has them as only team in the NFL with a 2 game lead in their division and puts them in a position to be able to clinch the division next weekend with a win over the Chargers. If they were to do that, they’d be the first team to clinch this season.

11. Indianapolis Colts 6-6

I love how ESPN is trying to break down why Peyton Manning is struggling. It’s simple, everyone around him sucks. His defense and lack of running game have forced him to 534 times in 12 games, on pace for 712, which would shatter Drew Bledsoe’s record for most passing attempts in a season. In their last three losses, they have thrown 148 times in 3 games.

With an offensive line that can’t block, Manning is getting pressured on almost every play. The other team doesn’t have to respect the run so they go for the quarterback on every play and limit Manning’s time in the pocket. He hasn’t been sacked much at all because of how good pocket presence he has, but he’s being forced into incompletions and interceptions. It doesn’t help that his receivers can’t catch.

10. Chicago Bears 9-3

The football gods may hate the Lions, but they seem to love the Bears. This is the 2^nd time this year that the Lions have barely lost to the Bears thanks to injuries and an iffy call. The Bears have 3 wins over teams with winning records, one of which was missing its #1 and #2 quarterbacks, another of which was missing its starting running back and committed 18 penalties, and the last of which was missing its top corner. Some say it’s better to be lucky than good, but to win a Super Bowl, you have to be both. This isn’t a team that I think can beat 3 or 4 straight playoff teams in a row. They’re not that consistent.

9.  Baltimore Ravens 8-4

Poor Joe Flacco. He just can’t beat Ben Roethlisberger. He can’t even beat 75% of him. Big Ben, broken nose, broken foot and all, still beat Flacco in what was easily the most entertaining 13-10 game I’ve seen in a while. Unfortunately for Flacco, he’s probably not getting to the Super Bowl without beating Big Ben, at least not this year. This is still a good team, despite the fact that they will probably end up with the 6^th seed after losing that game to the Steelers.

8. San Diego Chargers 6-6

Someone must have changed Norv Turner’s calendar from December to September. This is the first time in 15 December/January regular season games in the Norv Turner era that the Chargers have lost, losing by 15 at home to the Raiders, the 2^nd time the once lowly Raiders have beaten them this year.

Now the Chargers, who once looked like potential Super Bowl winners, are facing an elimination game this week against the Chiefs. If they lose, their season is over and even if they win, they no longer control their own destiny. The need to win out and have the Chiefs lose a game. Their last 3 aren’t very tough, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Denver. But then again, neither are the Chiefs’ 3, Tennessee, Oakland, and St. Louis.

7. New York Jets 9-3

So much for this being a close game. I had some thoughts of changing my 1 unit on the Patriots to 5 units, just because I couldn’t see Brady losing at home (hasn’t happened in 26 straight regular season games) and to the same team twice in the same season (never happened), but I respected the Jets enough to keep it at 1. Whoops! Would have taken me out of the red.

The Jets just flat out didn’t show up on either side of the ball. No one on that team played well. For a team that I regarded as the 2^nd best team in the AFC, that’s absolutely embarrassing. Now they have to play the Dolphins, Steelers, Jets, before getting the Bills week 17. This team could very easily be 11-5 or even 10-6 and the road to any Super Bowl is going to go through New England this year. Rex Ryan and co can’t be looking forward to having to play there in late January to win a Super Bowl. It looks like the dark history of the Jets will continue yet another year.

This loss just goes to show that if you cruise through a weak schedule at 75% and then expect to be able to turn it on against a team like the Patriots, you’re going to fall flat on your face. The Jets just didn’t look elite from weeks 5-12. In that stretch, they needed a late pick six to beat the Vikings by 9, they needed a late PI call to beat the Broncos by 4, got shutout by the Packers, needed overtime to beat the Lions and Browns, two games they could have easily lost in regulation, needed a late score to beat the Texans by 3, and then beat a Bengals team that didn’t show up by 16, despite the fact that they actually trailed 7-3 at halftime. They were expecting to be able to turn it on when it mattered and they didn’t. I knew how complacent they were for weeks. Why I didn’t bet 5 units against them, I don’t know.

6. Philadelphia Eagles 8-4

Here’s my stance on Michael Vick. I don’t forgive him. He’s made his time to society, yes. Legally, he has done/is doing all he needs to do. That doesn’t force me to have to forgive him. I don’t know why everyone is so quick to forgive him. Forgiveness is for mistakes and what Michael Vick did wasn’t a mistake. What Michael Vick did was an intent to hurt.

Dogs are supposed to be man’s best friend and thus they are the closest animal to human beings there is. To torture and kill dogs, and put money on the torturing and killing of dogs, isn’t a mistake. That’s evil. Studies show that almost every serial killer has abused animals at some point in his/her life. That doesn’t mean all animal abusers become serial killers, but it’s certainly not a good stat. I don’t have any problem with Vick being in the NFL. He has legally earned that right. However, I will never support Vick.

5. New Orleans Saints 9-3

Similar to the Steelers, this team doesn’t get up for bad teams and lets the game be closer than it should, almost losing to the Bengals despite a great game by Drew Brees. Luckily, there are no bad teams in the playoffs and at 9-3, they will make the playoffs. Once there, they’re a very dangerous team because of their past success.

4. Green Bay Packers 8-4

The Packers may look back at their week 13 win over the 49ers as the turning point to their season. I know the 49ers aren’t great, especially not on the road, and a double digit victory over them doesn’t seem like a lot, but rookie running back James Starks ran for 73 yards on 18 carries against the 49ers 3^rd ranked run defense in his first game off the PUP. For a team that hasn’t lost all 4 losses by 3 points, and hasn’t been able to run the ball at all with Grant out, this is a welcome surprise.

Starks’ 73 is their second highest single rushing total of the year. If they could have run the ball, they likely would have beaten Atlanta in Atlanta. If they could have run the ball, they almost certainly would have beaten Atlanta on a neutral surface.

Now, one game isn’t enough to prove to me that they are once again the team I had winning it all before injuries struck, but with games against the Patriots, Giants, and Bears coming up after their game with the Lions, they’ll have plenty of chances against good teams to show themselves off and maybe even steal that first round bye away from New Orleans or Chicago.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-3

The stat sheet won’t show it, but the Ravens game was exactly the reason Ben Roethlisberger has 2 rings and could easily get a 3^rd this year. It’s his heart. The whole game was fairly amazing by Big Ben, the Ravens defense, no offensive line help, the 35 degree winter with wind, the broken foot, the broken nose sustained on the first drive, but one play in particular sticks out.

If you watched the game, you know which one I’m talking about. Game winning drive, Roethlisberger has a pass rusher on him, Big Ben stayed on his feet, lost the pass rusher and was able to get out of the pocket and throw it out of bounds for the incompletion rather than a drive killing sack. On the stat sheet, it shows incompletion, but in reality it was a 110% heart play that allowed the Steelers to beat their arch rivals. After the play I tweeted “Big Ben is the type of quarterback who sacks pass rushers.”

Also I’d like to note there were two clear instances that should have been flagged according to the NFL’s new rules, that weren’t. Interesting enough, both hits were by the Ravens against the Steelers, one of which broke the nose of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who earlier this month was punched in the face by Richard Seymour, who only got a 25K fine. The other was against Heath Miller, the tight end, who suffered a concussion in a helmet-to-helmet.

The hit on Big Ben, drew a mere 15K and while the hit on Miller drew 40K, slightly more reasonable. I think if it were James Harrison making the hit in either case, the fine would have been 50K+. Between Hines Ward and James Harrison calling out the commissioner’s new rules and Ben Roethlisberger “raping” someone, Roger Goodell doesn’t like the Steelers that much. I would say something bad about Goodell here, but I’m afraid he’ll pay people to come into my house and shoot me.

2. Atlanta Falcons 10-2

3 wins in their last 4 games will clinch them homefield and 2 should clinch them homefield. With their last 4 games against Carolina (twice), Seattle, and New Orleans, that should be a piece of cake. If they get homefield, look out. Matt Ryan is 19-1 as a starter in his career at home. Green Bay is creeping up on them, but I still have Atlanta higher, following their win over the Buccaneers, because they’ve beaten the Packers and because the Packers only have one game with their new found running game.

1. New England Patriots 10-2

If the Chargers and Colts can win their divisions, that means the Pats will have beaten every single AFC playoff team at some point this year, the Jets, the Ravens, the Colts, the Chargers, and the Steelers. Even if the Chargers and Colts can’t get it together, the Patriots and Tom Brady own Jacksonville in recent years and as for Kansas City, Tom Brady or Matt Cassel? I thought so.

Add in the fact that they’ve all but sealed up homefield until the Super Bowl in Dallas and that they haven’t lost a regular season game at home since late 2006 with Brady as their starter, and that the fact that they already have 3 rings with their current QB/Coach combo you get the definition of a team to beat.

Finally I would like to quote myself because I can. This is from week 11 and I felt it explains this team so well I’m saying it again.

“The Patriots are always at their best when they’re doubted. This year, coming into the season, this was all they heard. Tom Brady is more concerned with being a celebrity than a football player. Tom Brady’s wife cut off his balls. Tom Brady’s hair makes him look like a girl, or even Justin Bieber. Justin Bieber called Tom Brady out in a rap video. The Pats lost to the Ravens in the playoffs big time. The upstart Dolphins and the upstart Jets are better. Tom Brady is getting old. Randy Moss is becoming a diva again. The defense’s average age is 25. Even into week 2, when they lost to the Jets, people doubted them.

Their response, as it always is, fuck you guys, we’re winning the Super Bowl.”

If you don’t think this team is pissed and looking to make a statement every week, just look at their decision to go for it on 4th down and short last week with a 38-3 lead. I have absolutely nothing against that. This team has every right to make a statement like that.

 

RB James Starks- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

In his first game off the PUP, Starks rushed for 73 yards on 18 carries. The Packers are the worst running team this side of the Indianapolis Colts, so I would be very surprised if Starks, a 5^th round rookie out of Buffalo, wasn’t the lead back from here on out.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 26.9%

In Chad Henne’s 11 starts, Bess has 60 catches for 658 yards and 3 scores. Henne should be the starter from here on out because of how bad backup Tyler Thigpen was in his one start. Bess is a weekly starter in PPR and a depth guy in normal leagues. Why he is still available in 3/4s of leagues, I have no idea.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 23.3%

56 catches for 649 yards and 3 scores this year. Like Bess, he’s a starter in PPR and a depth guy in normal leagues. No idea why he’s available in 3/4s of leagues.

RB Tashard Choice- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.8%

After weeks of watching Marion Barber fall over for no gain, I have no idea why Garrett didn’t go to Choice sooner. With Barber out, Choice rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown. Barber will miss a few weeks and even when he’s back, Choice has to get the bulk of his carries, especially on the goal line. Choice still has Felix Jones to deal with and he won’t face the Colts every week, but he still has value going forward.

 

TE Ben Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.4%

Watson caught 10 balls for 100 yards and a score against Miami. This gives him 50 catches for 574 yards and 3 scores this season, despite missing a game. You can do a lot worse with your TE1.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.9%

Armstrong caught a career high 6 balls against the Giants this week. The 27 year old undrafted rookie has 27 catches for 538 yards and 2 scores in his last 9 since taking over as starter.

WR Mohamed Massaquoi- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.6%

Massaquoi is finally playing like we thought he would to start this season, with 4 catches in 4 of his last 5 games. In his last 3, he has 8 catches for 181 yards. Not too shabby. Delhomme seems to like throwing to him.

 

Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 9-7 (-330/-7%)

Overall picks: 126-66 (.659)

ATS Picks: 101-85-6 (+$2870)

Lock picks: 9-4

Upset picks: 24-24

Sports Betting FAQ 

Week 13 recap: It didn’t start well. Even with a 2 unit win with the Eagles -9.5 over the Texans on Thursday Night, I still started the week 3-6 ATS and more important, blowing 20 of 25 units to put me down -1700. It looked as if this would be my worse week ever and wipe out more than half of the 3K+ I’ve made this season. However, after that 3-6 start, I went 6-1, only losing a 3 unit on the Colts, to battle back to -330 or -7%. It’s obviously not ideal, but as far as off weeks go, it could have been a lot worse. I nailed my 5 unit pick with the Rams over the Cardinals. A 7% loss doesn’t look great, but when you consider that with a 10% juice, you lose $10 of every $110, it’s not terrible. Flipping a coin at random, with average luck, lands you -9% or -450 the way I bet this week. Obviously the goal is not to be slightly better than flipping a coin, but again, as far as off weeks go, it could have been a lot worse. Straight up I was 10-6, a modest record. If you had bet my upset picks straight up you would have lost 60 dollars or .6 units, as I went 1-2 with my upset picks. I nailed my lock pick, with the Rams over the Cardinals. It wasn’t a great week overall, but again it could have been worse. It was my first week in the red since week 6.

Indianapolis Colts 28 Tennessee Titans 17

Spread: Indianapolis -3

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 3 units (-330)

Tennessee is a home team on a Thursday night, and home teams on Thursday night with a winning record have only lost 3 times since 2006. However, the Titans don’t have a winning record any more after dropping their last 4. The Colts, meanwhile, have lost 4 of their last 5.

The Colts haven’t looked like the Colts in recent weeks, but they have played a tough schedule and overall have looked better than the reeling Titans. I just can’t see the Colts losing another game so in a fairly even spread, I’m taking the 6-6 Colts as road favorites on Thursday night. I still have faith in Peyton Manning.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Spread: Jacksonville -5

Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit (-110)

Maybe I should go back to not betting highly on Jaguars games. 2 weeks ago, I bet 1 unit on the points with the Jaguars because, up to that point, I was 1-9 picking Jaguars games. I won that 1 unit and then went against the Jaguars as 3 point underdogs in Tennessee last week for 3 units and got burned once again.

I’m going with the points for 1 unit again here. The Jaguars don’t have a great record against non-division opponents and may be caught looking forward to arguably their biggest game of their last 5 years next week, a game in which, if everything goes right between now and then, they could eliminate the Indianapolis Colts.

Buffalo Bills 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Spread: Buffalo -1

Pick against spread: Buffalo 2 units (+200)

I have no idea which Buffalo team we will see this week. Before last week, the Bills hadn’t lost by more than 3 in 6 straight games and hadn’t lost against the spread as an underdog since week 5. Last week, they lost by 24 as a 6.5 point underdog to a Vikings team who lost Brett Favre on the very first throw of the game. That Bills team looked like the Bills team that was terrible against the Steelers in the first half week 12 before the Steelers let them back into it.

However, I’m not sure that team isn’t better than the Miami team the Browns just beat. Chad Henne turned into Jake Delhomme and threw 3 picks, one of which set up the Browns with first and goal in a tied game late and eventually gave the Browns a 13-10 road win. I may have lost betting against Jake Delhomme last week, but I’m sticking with my old adage, never bet on Jake Delhomme, for 2.

Green Bay Packers 38 Detroit Lions 21

Spread: Green Bay -7

Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units (-330)

In my opinion, week 13 turned the Packers season around. I know a double digit win against the 49ers isn’t terrible impressive, especially at home, but rookie James Starks made his season debut. For a team that hasn’t been able to run the ball at all since they lost Ryan Grant week 1, and has since suffered their only 4 losses by 3 points each, being able to run the ball is going to be huge and the fact that Starks looked good against the 49ers 3^rd ranked run defense is very good news for Packers fans. He rushed for 73 yards on 18 carries, their second highest total of the year.

They might be the best team in the NFC. I know they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta, but they might have won that game if they could run and I’m almost certain they could have won that on a neutral field if they could run. This Packers team looks like the Packers team that I had winning the Super Bowl way back in August, before injuries struck. That team can almost certainly beat Drew Stanton and the Lions by 7 or more.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Carolina Panthers 16 Lock Pick

Spread: -7 Atlanta

Pick against spread: Atlanta 3 units (+300)

I am 10-2 picking Panthers games. It’s not that hard. Just bet against them unless they are facing Jake Delhomme. They’ve lost a whooping 9 games this season by double digits. If the Falcons, fresh off beating a legitimate playoff caliber team in Tampa Bay, on the road, can’t give the Panthers another double digit loss, they should be concerned. I have no problem betting the Falcons big as 7 point favorites on the road in this situation. They’ve proven they can win on the road in much tougher situations.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 23

Spread: Pittsburgh -9.5

Pick against spread: Cincinnati 4 units (-440)

Pittsburgh is not a team that beats other teams by a lot. They have three double digit wins this season and only two with Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup. They’re 9-3, but they’re a tough grind it out team who can beat good teams by less than a touchdown, but builds double digit leads against bad teams and then ultimately takes their foot off the gas and almost lets said bad team back in the game.

This is exactly what happened in Cincinnati earlier this season, a 6 point win for Pittsburgh. The Bengals, meanwhile, are the kings of back door covers. They’re great at covering a spread once the game is so far out of hand that it doesn’t matter. In fact, that seems to be their specialty.

The Bengals might not have put in a ton of effort in recent weeks, but I expect them to do so this week against a hated divisional rival and keep the final score close. The Bengals have covered 16 of the last 21 games against the Steelers in which the Steelers had previously beaten them. The only reason this isn’t a 5 unit pick is because I can see Cincinnati just not showing up. They’ve done it before.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Washington Redskins 20

Spread: -1 Tampa Bay

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 2 units (-20)

The book on Tampa Bay has been pretty simple this year, if the team they’re playing has a winning record, they’ll win. If not, they’ll lose. Washington sits here at 5-7 so with a fairly even spread, taking Tampa Bay makes sense.

However, Donovan McNabb is historically at his best after a loss and he’s historically at his best in December. I’m still taking the Bucs because McNabb’s supporting cast is so bad that it might not matter if he plays well, and because all of McNabb’s success in December was in Philly under Coach Andy Reid. It certainly didn’t look to carry over to Washington after he was destroyed by the rival Giants last week. 

New Orleans Saints 30 St. Louis Rams 27

Spread: -9.5 New Orleans

Pick against spread: St. Louis 4 units (-440)

The upstart Rams have won their last two games on the road, after starting the year 0-4 on the road. However, winning in Denver and Arizona is nothing like winning in New Orleans. Meanwhile, New Orleans is terrible at covering double digit spreads in the Sean Peyton era, 3-9. This line isn’t quite 10 points, but that’s still worth nothing as it is a fairly large spread, over a touchdown.

This is also a potential trap game for the Saints, facing the Ravens, Falcons, and Bucs in their next 3, they may overlook the 6-6 Rams of the NFC West. The Rams are good enough to beat them if they do. I’m not going to pick the Rams to win, though they could, but the Saints are a team that lets inferior teams hang with them and this is a potential trap game and I like the Rams a lot.

The Rams actually have the league’s best record against the spread at 9-3 so I’m taking them against here for 3. For comparison, the Saints are 3-8-1 ATS. If you can get this spread at -10, take it for 5.

Miami Dolphins 23 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick (+205)

Spread: -6 NY Jets

Pick against spread: Miami 4 units (+400)

The Jets just lost on MNF by a whopping 42 points. That was their Super Bowl, essentially. They put everything into that game so that they could get homefield and now it looks like the best they can get is the 5^th seed and a road first round playoff game. I don’t see any way they get up for the Dolphins this week.

Teams that lose by 17+ on MNF since 1999 are 16-34 the following week since 1999 and 1-3 this year. Teams favored after losing by 17+ on MNF are 4-15 ATS the next week. The Jets play the Steelers and the Bears in their next 2. Those are the two games they’re going to be looking forward to. I can’t see them getting up for lowly Miami, who just lost to the Browns.

Overlooking Miami is going to be a mistake. Sure they’ve been terrible at times this year, but they’ve also been good at times. They are 4-1 straight up off of a loss this year and 4-1 ATS. They also seem to play better on the road. They are 4-1 on the road and two of their three most impressive victories have come on the road this year, Green Bay in overtime and Oakland by 16.

Chad Henne was bad against the Browns, but in 3 career games against the Jets has played very well and very consistently, totaling 58 for 91 for 716 yards, 5 touchdowns, and a pick in those three games. 

The Jets meanwhile, prior to the Patriots’ game, only beat 1 team by more than 6 since week 5. That one win by more than 6 was by 16 against the Bengals, who simply didn’t show up. The Jets didn’t even  look good in that game. In that stretch since week 5, they hadn’t beaten a single team with a winning record.

I would argue that the Dolphins are better than any of their victories in that stretch, especially on the road coming off of a loss. I like the Dolphins to win and love them to cover. If you can get this spread -7, take it for 5. If not, 4 will do.

Denver Broncos 16  Arizona Cardinals 13

Spread: -5.5 Denver

Pick against spread: Arizona 1 unit (+100)

You’ve all heard of the Super Bowl right? The two best teams playing good football against each other. Well, this game is the Toilet Bowl. Both teams are terrible. They scored a combined 12 points last week and their quarterbacks were a combined 16 for 48 for 210 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick. They Broncos have fired their coach, who is also their offensive coordinator, and are down to their running backs coach calling the plays and being the head coach.

Derek Anderson is being checked out for a “head injury” this week so he probably will not start. Max Hall (he of the 4 for 16 in Seattle earlier this year) won’t play either, meaning the Cardinals would be down to John Skelton at quarterback. Skelton is a talented rookie out of Fordham, but he is very raw and widely regarded as someone who is a longterm project rather than a year 1 starter.

This game isn’t a pick between which team I like more, but rather which team I hate less. I said I wouldn’t bet on the Cardinals for the rest of the season a few weeks ago, but I can’t, in my right mind, but on the Broncos as 5.5 point favorites, after their performance last week, making an impromptu coaching change to someone who wasn’t groomed for the job. I’m taking the underdog for 1.

New England Patriots 31 Chicago Bears 16

Spread: -3 Chicago

Pick against spread: New England 4 units (+400)

The Patriots coming off of a 42 point win on MNF and are clearly the best football team in the world. Yet they’re only 3 point favorites over the Bears, who barely beat the Lions? Huh? The Bears’ record might look nice, but I haven’t been terribly impressed with any of their wins, including over the Asante Samuel-less Eagles.

Their downside is also very bad, as we saw with them against the Redskins (4 picks), and Giants (10 sacks). Bill Belicheck runs one of the most confusing defenses in the league. They might give up a ton of yards, but as we saw on MNF, they take the ball away from you, bad news for Jay Cutler who has had issues with interceptions throughout his career. Belicheck’s squad will bring pressure and force the ball out of Cutler’s hands.

They can forget about running the ball if Tom Brady plays well. They won’t be able to. If this team can’t run, they can’t win. Running the football has been the key to their success since the bye.

The Patriots are also coming off a 17+ point win on MNF. Teams who win by more than 17 on MNF are 37-22 the next week ATS. Teams in that situation are 3-1 this year. Forget any potential hangover with this Patriots team after they beat the Jets. Not only do teams do well after big MNF wins, the Pats are coached by Bill Belicheck who won’t let them go complacent.

Neither will Tom Brady. Tom Brady is pissed off at the world for doubting him and he’s taking it out on everyone he plays this year. The Bears will be no exception.

The Patriots are averaging over 30 points a game this year and have scored 30+ in each of their last 4. If they do that again, which is likely, the Bears will have to score 27+ to cover. As good as their defense is, the Bears have only scored more than 27 once this year and they can forget about doing that if they can’t run.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Spread: San Francisco -4.5

Pick against spread: San Francisco 1 unit (+100)

The 49ers are 4-8 on the year, but they’re 3-2 in San Francisco and 2-1 against this miserable division. They will start Alex Smith once again in this one. Seattle is not a very good team, especially not on the road, where they are 2-4 this year. The Seahawks won this game in Seattle earlier this year, but the 49ers are better since then.

If you remember, the 49ers struggled to get their plays into their quarterback that whole game week 1. Plus, this game is in San Francisco which works to the 49ers advantage in more ways than one. The 49ers might not be able to pass, but in the swirling winds of Candlestick, against the Seahawks struggling run defense, they might not have to. I don’t like the idea of picking the 4-8 Niners as 4.5 point favorites, but I’m doing it for 1 unit.

San Diego Chargers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Spread: -9.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: San Diego 1 unit (+100)

Someone must have changed Norv Turner’s calendar to September. In their 15 point home loss to the Raiders last week, this team looked like how they normally do in September rather than December. If they had won that game, I would have pounded this 7 point line in favor of San Diego. They really looked like a legitimate Super Bowl team before last week. Now, I’m not sure I trust them.

Still, their December record can’t be ignored. In December in the Norv Turner era, their record and accomplishments can’t be ignored. Even with that loss to Oakland factored, in, they are still 19-1 in their last 20 December/January regular season games and 14-1 in the Norv Turner era. In fact, some might even argue we are getting line value with the Chargers -7 after their loss.

On paper, the Chargers should win this game easily. The Chargers rank 2^nd in total offense and total defense. However, this game is more than what you see on paper. The Chargers have shot themselves in the foot countless times this year, with fumbles, big plays allowed, penalties, and most notably special teams gaffes. Remember they were supposed to beat the Chiefs week 1 and lost by 7 despite the fact that Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards for the Chiefs. I’m picking the Chargers for 2, but I’m not terribly confident in that.

Update: Matt Cassel had an appendectomy today and thus his status for this game is much in doubt. The line has been taken down in almost all books. If you got this line at -7 and picked the Chargers, as was my original recommendation. Congrats. If Cassel misses this game, this line isn’t going anywhere, but up. I’ll have a new pick if Cassel is out.

Update: Cassel is officially listed as doubtful for this game, confirming what medical experts and average Joe fans knew for days, he won’t play this week. Backup Brody Croyle will start and thus this line has moved to -9.5. Any confidence I had in the Chargers at -7, is now almost gone.

I know what you’re thinking, the Chargers have locked this one up with Cassel out. Croyle and Cassel are very similar quarterbacks, limited arm strength, but very careful with the ball, not going to turn it over, and can game manage this offense, based on the running game, to the end zone. Croyle was once a big time prospect before injuries hit and derailed his career. 

The Chiefs also are now a good team playing with their backup quarterback, which means they’ll probably play at 110% to compensate, as if they needed any more motivation in their biggest game since 2006. The Chargers also might overlook the Chiefs without Cassel and the Chiefs are a team that can beat them if that happens. I know it’s a huge game for the Chargers, but they have the tendency to disappear in big games at times. I’m sticking with the Chargers because they are clearly the more talented team and because of their amazing December record, but only for 1 unit and if you can get this line at 10+, take the Chiefs. 

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

Spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 2 units (-220)

Last week, the Eagles played the Texans and it was Michael Vick against one of the worst defenses in the league. This week, Vick is against another of the league’s worst defenses, the Cowboys. The Cowboys, statistically have been even worse defensively since Jason Garrett took over, especially against the pass. I can’t see them holding Vick and this explosive Eagles offense under 30.

That’s going to put the burden on the Dallas offense, but as they showed last week, they can hang with teams offensively even with Jon Kitna at quarterback. Unfortunately for Kitna, his favorite target Dez Bryant is done for the year with an ankle injury. That has to hurt the journeyman quarterback. I don’t like his chances to keep this within 3 at home at all. If you can get this spread at -3, take it for 3. If not, 2 will do.

Minnesota Vikings 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick (+205)

Spread: -4.5 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Minnesota 3 units (-330)

The New York Giants typically have a second half swoon. They are 2-2 in the season half of the season. That isn’t great, especially not compared to the 6-2 they were earlier in the season, but that record alone hardly constitutes a swoon. However, their losses to Philly and Dallas were sloppy and Jacksonville dominated them before disappearing in the final quarter. Washington was their most impressive victory and that was last week, but Washington simply didn’t show up to that one. It doesn’t help the Giants that they’ve had injuries. Both of their starting receivers, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, are expected to miss this game again, as well as a few key offensive linemen.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is playing like everyone thought they would in their last 2, after firing Brad Childress and going with Leslie Frazier. Brett Favre is probably going to start this game over Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson led the Vikings to a very impressive win over the Bills last week, but was erratic, throwing 3 picks, including a pick six. He was lucky he had Adrian Peterson on his side. Brett Favre still remains their best option in the shorterm.

In addition to Peterson’s great game last week, the Vikings’ defense also had the type of performance we were expecting out of them to start the season. I know the Bills aren’t great, but they have put up good numbers against some fairly impressive defenses this year. The defense also came up big against Washington 2 weeks ago in a win. The Vikings also have Sidney Rice at full strength after a lengthy earlier season injury, a huge part of their recent success. Favre and Rice were a golden combo last year so Favre has to be thrilled that Rice had his breakout game last week.

Minnesota is streaking right now and playing like they were supposed to and the Giants are struggling in the 2nd half. Now the Giants have to go into Minnesota, where the Vikings were 8-0 last year and where they are 4-2 this year, despite their 5-7 record overall. The Giants could also be caught looking forward to Philly and Green Bay in weeks 15 and 16 and might also be complacent after their huge victory over the Redskins. It’s also worth noting that the Giants have lost their last 4 against Minnesota, including defeats in each of the last 3 seasons. I expect that to continue this year.

I’m fairly confident in the Vikings to win straight up. If Favre’s status for this game changes, my pick (and probably the line) will change as well and in that case, I’ll do another pick, but, like I’ve said before, I’ll believe Favre sits when I see it.

Update: Line has moved to 4 in the wake of the game being moved to the neutral site, Detroit. Plus, the Giants likely haven’t gotten much time to practice this week with a hectic travel week, which left them stuck in Kansas City because of all the snow in Minnesota.

I can’t say what type of crowd Detroit will be. There are arguments for both, pro-Giants as the Vikings are divisional rivals, or pro-Vikings because it is still near Minnesota and because the Lions are too far out for this game to matter. However, the Vikings won’t have the same home field advantage as they would have had.

However, the Giants are still swooning, the Vikings are still streaking, and the Vikings have still had Eli Manning’s number in his career. With the line going to over a field goal, I still feel comfortable taking the Vikings for 3. Brett Favre says he’s not likely to play, but the pick stays the same with Tarvaris Jackson in the lineup. Jackson isn’t playing any worse than Favre right now and his athleticism might help them against the Giants’ fierce pass rush. 

Houston Texans 23 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick (+129)

Spread: Baltimore -3

Pick against spread: Houston 3 units (-330)

This is a Monday Night Football game, which means we will have to endure Jon Gruden’s nonsense comments and non-stop praise of everyone on the field. It also means we have to endure the worst analysis on TV by the Monday Night Countdown crew as they make their picks. Among some of their “analysis” last week were the following.

Steve Young: It’s my son Braden’s 10^th birthday and we call him Brady B. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Pats.

Matt Millen: I think Tom Brady is the best quarterback on the field. I’m taking the Pats.

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I gotta lotta love for New York, but I gotta go Pats.

These are only a few examples of their “analysis.” Most of the time they just say they’re picking a team because that’s the better team. Week 12, Chris Berman picked the 49ers to win 19-16 because that was an important date in San Francisco history. I can only imagine what they will say next week as the Ravens head to Houston to take on the Texans.

Steve Young: Three days ago was my 2^nd cousin 3 times removed ex-roommate’s son’s sister’s birthday and she was married to a Chinese man and Chinese people love Rice. The stars are aligned. I’m going with Ray Rice and the Ravens.

Matt Millen: I think Texans have scored more points this season. I’m taking the Texans.

Chris Berman: WHOOP! Matt Schaub was born in 1981. I’m taking the Texans to win 19 to 81.  WHOOP! WHOOP! WHOOP!

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I got mad love for Ray Lewis, but I gotta go with the Texans.

Tom Jackson: This is going to be a huge game for the Texans. They’re never in the spotlight and will capitalize on having a home Monday Night Football game. They also play their best football when they’re out of it. I’m taking the Texans.

Chris Mortensen: What Tom said sounds smart. I’m going with him.

Stuart Scott: I don’t know anything about football. I’m taking the Ravens.

Mike Ditka: Well you know guys, when I was the coach of the Chicago Bears, I wasn’t the coach of the Houston Texans, so I’m going with the Ravens.

Cris Carter: I think the Ravens have the better team. I’m taking the Ravens.

Now for some real analysis. Going off of what the fake version of the only good Monday Night Countdown analyst Tom Jackson said, the Houston Texans don’t get a lot of national publicity. They don’t often have Monday Night home games and they do often play their best football when they’re out of it.

Remember last year they fell to 5-7, as they are now, and then reeled off 4 straight wins in impressive fashion. They did a similar thing in 2008 as they went 5-1 down the stretch after falling to 3-7. I’m taking them as the underdogs to do that this week at home against a Baltimore team that is coming off of a disappointing loss to the Steelers. Also remember the Texans have had 11 days to prepare for this following their week 13 Thursday Night game.

 

WR Steve Breaston- Arizona

Just like almost every other week this season, Breaston will play through a knee injury.

WR Larry Fitzgerald- Arizona

He missed Friday’s practice for his grandfather’s funeral, but will be in the lineup against Denver.

WR Roddy White- Atlanta

Got rest on Wednesday, but will play on Sunday again.

TE Tony Gonzalez- Atlanta

See White, Roddy.

TE Todd Heap- Baltimore

Out.

WR Terrell Owens- Cincinnati

Expected to play through a knee injury once again.

RB Marion Barber- Dallas

Out. I think he can be safely dropped. Tashard Choice is playing well in his absence and Barber was terrible even when healthy.

WR Calvin Johnson- Detroit

He’ll play.

QB Shaun Hill- Detroit

Out.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Out.

WR Nate Burleson- Detroit

Expected to play, but doesn’t have much value with Drew Stanton at quarterback.

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay

Will be in the lineup this week for the Packers again. Driver has bounced back from early season injury problems and is worth a start as a WR3 again.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

Will probably start this Monday, but he hasn’t been productive enough this year to be worth the risk. He’s expected to split snaps with Joel Dressen anyway.

WR Mike Sims Walker- Jacksonville

Listed as probable so start him as you normally would.

QB Matt Cassel- Kansas City

Out.

 

WR Brandon Marshall- Miami

Still listed as questionable, but considering he made the trip to New York, I do expect the star receiver to start. Unfortunately Darrelle Revis awaits. I’d still start him, however.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

Favre didn’t go through his walk through on Saturday, but with snow postponing the game until Monday, I would be very surprised if Favre didn’t make his 298^th great. In fact, I’m 50% convinced the game was moved just so Favre could start. If Favre is your QB1 (then you’re probably not playing a meaningful game this week), but proceed as normal.

WR Sidney Rice- Minnesota

Rice seems all the way back. He’s a starter from here on out.

WR Percy Harvin- Minnesota

Doubtful. He’s not worth the risk with the game being moved to Monday.

WR Bernard Berrian- Minnesota

He’s expected to start with Percy Harvin likely out. Berrian practiced Friday and is listed as probable, but considering he’s only had more than 2 receptions once this year, there’s no reason why he should even be on your roster, let alone in your starting lineup.

RB Adrian Peterson- Minnesota

Just like last week, he will play through an ankle injury. He rushed for 107 yards and 3 scores last week, so he didn’t look too bad.

QB Tom Brady- New England

BB makes things up. Brady will play despite supposedly having a foot and a shoulder problem.

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Thomas is expected to play this week for the first time since week 3, but Chris Ivory is still expected to get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans, rather than Thomas.

WR Steve Smith- NY Giants

Practiced in full Friday and said he’d play this week extensively. I’d take the gamble that he plays Monday.

WR Hakeem Nicks- NY Giants

Like Smith, I’m taking the gamble with him starting Monday after he practiced Friday.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw- NY Giants

Missed Wednesday with a wrist problem, but he’ll play Monday after practicing the rest of the week. He’ll split with Brandon Jacobs again.

WR Santonio Holmes- NY Jets

Nothing to worry about here. Expected to play.

TE Zach Miller- Oakland

Upgraded from questionable to probable, which is a good sign. The 5 catches for 28 yards in his last 4, not so much. Given the depth of tight ends this year, I don’t think he’s worth a roster spot until he starts producing again.

QB Michael Vick- Philadelphia

Expected to play after practicing all week. Nothing to fear here.

TE Heath Miller- Pittsburgh

Out.

QB Ben Roethlisberger- Pittsburgh

Expected to play with a protective face shield. It doesn’t affect how he plays.

WR Legedu Naanee- San Diego

Out.

WR Patrick Crayton- San Diego

Out.

WR Vincent Jackson- San Diego

Going to start against Kansas City, but wait for him to do something first.

RB Darren Sproles- San Diego

I’d say it’s more likely than not that Sproles misses this week with a concussion. Considering that he’s a marginal starter and that it’s a 4:15 start time, look elsewhere.

TE Antonio Gates- San Diego

One of the toughest guys in the league, Gates is going to try to play this week despite missing practice all week. He’s a game time decision for a 4:15 start, but he’s good enough to still be startable, provided you have a suitable backup that has a 4:15 or later start.

RB Brian Westbrook- San Francisco

Took two personal days this week, but will play against Seattle, who can’t stop the run. He’ll probably split with Anthony Dixon, but he’s still a decent flex option.

WR Mike Williams- Seattle

He’s a game time decision for a 4:15 start…again. He hasn’t caught a ball since week 11, so I’d say look elsewhere this week.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

He’ll play through a knee injury for the 38uiwf467p8ew9iqth straight week.

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

He’s expected to start this week, but in the last 3 weeks the Redskins haven’t, ran much, scored much, gotten into the end zone much, moved the ball much, or been consistent with their running back’s carries (well Shanny’s never been). He’s a risk this week and might not be worth the reward.

QB Donovan McNabb- Washington

Why is he listed every week? He’s not even hurt!

WR Santana Moss- Washington

He’s listed as questionable, but given that he practiced on Friday, I think he should be good to go. He’s the only fantasy startable Redskins right now (along with Chris Cooley).