Week 14 Fantasy Report

 

RB Marion Barber- Chicago

Percent owned (ESPN): 16.3%

Matt Forte is out for at least a few weeks so Marion Barber, one of the better backup running backs in the league, is going to be the lead back. He needs to be owned universally.

WR Riley Cooper- Philadelphia

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

Jeremy Maclin is hurt. DeSean Jackson is mentally checked out. Meanwhile, Riley Cooper has 13 catches for 240 yards and a score in his last 3 games.

 

WR Demaryius Thomas- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.8%

Tebow has improved his passing yards in each of the last 3 weeks and Demaryius Thomas seems to be his favorite target now that he’s healthy. Thomas caught 4 passes for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns in Denver’s win over Minnesota. Thomas is the only one of Denver’s receivers who has experience in the triple option as the former first round pick is a former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket.

WR Chaz Schilens- Oakland

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

With all of the injuries Oakland has had at receiver, Schilens has 10 catches for 147 yards in his last 2 games.

 

Week 13 UFB Rankings

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on. Views held in write ups do not necessarily represent the views of footballfanspot.com.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (9)  –  11 – 0   next at New York Giants

Maybe this team will indeed make the NFL history by going 19-0. Last few weeks, there were times when we thought they would lose but they always found a way to come back and win games. Many believe that the Giants can upset the Packers, but with all the injuries, we don’t see the Giants causing any troubles for the Packers.

(4)  2. New Orleans Saints  – 8 – 3   next vs Detroit Lions

Brees relentlessly torched New York’s secondary, going 24-of-38 for 363 yards and four passing touchdowns. He also had an 8-yard rushing score, as he looked like Aaron Rodgers on the scramble. Graham, meanwhile, found the end zone twice to go along with his team-leading five receptions and 84 yards. There was a scary moment in which Graham took a hit to the head in the fourth quarter, but he was apparently OK because he recovered an onside kick a bit later.

(5)  3. New England Patriots  –  8 – 3   next vs Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots have scored 109 points in their last 3 games and their defense has allowed just 18 per game starting with their week 4 game against the Raiders. Their defense isn’t even at full strength so you can expect them to play good defense the rest of the way and with this offense and their experience at quarterback and Head Coach, that’s a scary combination. The Packers have struggled with both the Chargers’ and the Saints’ offense so we think the Patriots do have a shot at beating the Packers in the Super Bowl.

(6)  4. Baltimore Ravens  –  8 – 3   next at Cleveland Browns

Winners of the Harbaugh Bowl, the Ravens were looking really good against the 49ers.  With the Ravens defense picking up the offenses slack by recording 9 sacks and one turnover, it looks like this team is getting into playoff readiness.  With three more tough inner divisional match-ups, lets see if they can keep the lead in the AFC North.

(3)  5.  Pittsburgh Steelers  –  8 – 3   next vs Cincinnati Bengals

With the Steelers winning 6 out of their last 7, streaking with the most important part of the schedule coming up…Remember, Ravens own the tie-breaker. Could be key in the coming future, we definitely be keeping tabs on that division race

(2)  6. San Francisco 49ers – 9 – 2   next vs St. Louis Rams

What happened against the Ravens is what will most likely happen in the playoff. The 49ers are a good team but it is too inexperienced and imbalanced to win any games in the playoffs. The 49ers will clinch the playoff spot this week against the Rams thanks to weak NFC West. The 49ers’ offense is not good enough to overcome elite defense.

(10)  7. Atlanta Falcons – 7 – 4   next at Houston Texans

Matty Ice is cool as fire (Does that even make sense?) Who cares, when he defense plays as good as they have and they get production on O from Ryan and Turner. Extremely tough team to beat. . . .Especially at home.

 

(12)  8. Dallas Cowboys – 7 – 4   next at Arizona Cardinals

Cowboys nearly became latest victims of Dolphins juggernaut. We was pretty upset that the Cowboys looked like crap and didn’t cover against Miami. With all that said, suddenly they seem to be the safe bet to win the NFC East.  With only one really tough team left, the Cowboys should be able to maintain this pace.

(9)  9. Houston Texans – 8 – 3   next vs Atlanta Falcons

We don’t think the Texans will be too much worse off with TJ Yates than they were with Matt Leinart. In fact, they might be better off. Unlike Leinart, Yates seemed interested and capable of throwing more than 5 yards down field. Leinart went 12 of 16, but for a mere 57 yards. Yates was 8 of 15 for 70 yards. They have a great defense and a great running game so all Yates has to do is not overstep his boundaries and they’ll be at least decent. Besides, the scariest thing is a good team that doesn’t think anyone believes in them. The Texans are that team now.

(13)  10. Cincinnati Bengals – 7 – 4   next at Pittsburgh Steelers

Were the Bengals just flat off of back to back divisional losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore and looking forward to a rematch with Pittsburgh? Or are they simply not as good as they were before they lost Leon Hall? The Bengals had a very underwhelming performance at home against the Browns last week. A few weeks ago, that game wouldn’t have been very close. Last week, the Bengals needed to comeback from a 20-10 4th quarter deficit. They have another test this week as they head to Pittsburgh.

(7)  11. Detroit Lions – 7 – 4   next at New Orleans Saints

The Lions really just have the feel of an immature team. They made all sorts of stupid mistakes against the Packers and Ndamukong Suh got frustrated and stepped on an offensive lineman…er I mean tripped. They haven’t dealt with adversity well all season. After their first loss, Jim Schwartz blew up at Jim Harbaugh because his handshake was too rough. And of course, since their first loss, they’re just 2-4 with wins over the Broncos, before the new Tim Tebow friendly offense, and the Panthers, who led early. They’re going to get destroyed this week coming off a loss in their biggest game of the decade.

(14)  12. Oakland Raiders – 7- 4   next at Miami Dolphins

What a great story for the NFL and the Raider nation. Carson Palmer had his ups and downs but he is an upgrade over Jason Campbell and the team seems to be extremely energized after years of futility. It faces very little challenges in its way to the playoff (we haven’t bought into Tebow-led Broncos yet) and could pull an upset.

(8)  13. Chicago Bears – 8 – 3   next vs Kansas City Chiefs

Meh, we are going to keep the Bears in the top 15. We think Cal Hanie will be better next week (by default, really). Plus, Jay Cutler will return in about four weeks, so it’s not like they’ll be completely hopeless in the playoffs.

(15)  14. New York Jets – 6 – 5   next at Washington Redskins

 The Jets ended a two game losing streak last week, but hardly looked convincing in a 4 point win that easily could have been a loss against the lowly Bills. The Jets now sit at 6-5 and they really haven’t looked as good as they have in the past two years this year. They have an uphill battle to make the playoffs as Cincinnati is a game better than them, but they have the easier schedule on tap. The reeling Giants are their only remaining +.500 team and they also play Miami, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Washington. It’s all just a matter of execution now.

(11)  15. New York Giants – 6 – 5   next vs Green Bay Packers

The free fall continues, but you gotta admit, the schedule is brutal. If they don’t turn it around it will be Coughlin turned around heading for the door soon.  Schedule doesn’t get any easier as the undefeated Packers come to town.

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes 

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Garett Krobot of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Week 13 Preview

 

11/25/11 2:30 PM ET

Arkansas at LSU

WR Jarius Wright (Arkansas) #4

Arkansas’ all time leading receiver, the senior Wright has 3 years of strong production with Ryan Mallett and Tyler Wilson at quarterback, Wright has really stepped up in place of Greg Childs’ injury and is having a career year as a senior. In 11 games, he has 61 catches for 1002 yards and 10 touchdowns. Last season, he caught 42 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns and in 2009 he had 41 catches for 681 yards and 5 touchdowns. The 5-10 180 pound receiver isn’t the most athletic, but he’s a great pass catcher and should make a nice slot receiver at the next level. He looks like a day 2 pick.

WR Rueben Randle (LSU) #2

A big, physical receiver, the 6-4 210 pound receiver is having a strong junior season and could be a day 2 pick if he declares early. He’s a great run blocker and has caught 39 passes for 755 yards and 8 touchdowns on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. LSU has completed 139 passes for 1844 yards and 19 touchdown of Randle is a large portion of their offense. He has all the tools to be an elite receiver at the next level, but he might be best served to return for his senior season and put up another year of strong production. He looks like an early day 3, late day 2 prospect at this point. After struggling against Alabama and Dre Kirkpatrick, he needs a good game here.

11/25/11 7 PM ET

Pittsburgh at West Virginia

CB Keith Tandy (Pittsburgh) #8

A mid round pick and a 3 year starter, Tandy has 49 tackles, 9 deflections, 3 picks, and 2 tackles for loss on the season. In 2010, he had 57 tackles, 11 deflections, 6 picks, and 3 tackles for loss. In 2009, he had 61 tackles, 4 deflections, 3 picks, and 4 tackles for loss. He’s a bit undersized at 5-10 195, but he did a decent job on Rutgers’ Mohamed Sanu a few weeks ago.

OT Don Barclay (West Virginia) #64

Not the most athletic guy at 6-4 310, but West Virginia’s left tackle looks like a draftable prospect. He’ll probably have to move to right tackle or guard at the next level. He’ll be matched up with Brandon Lindsey in this game. Lindsey is a fringe day 2 prospect, but needs to pick up his production. After 10 sacks last year, he has 5.5 this year and needs a good job him to help his stock.

11/25/11 10:15 PM ET

California at Arizona State

MLB Vontaze Burflict (Arizona State) #7

He gets a bad rep for being a dirty player, and while he will draw more flags than most players, it’s really just because his motor is non-stop. Plenty of people close to him will vouch that this is not a bad kid, but in fact a high character kid who loves football. Burflict could be the first linebacker off the board this year and is prematurely drawing comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, and Rolando McClain. It might not show so much on the stat sheet, but this kid has all the abilities and a world of upside. He has 63 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and a pick on the year in 11 games. He’s a powerful hitter who also can do all of the finesse things as well.

MLB Mychal Kendricks (California) #30

A 6-0 240 pound 3-4 middle linebacker in Cal’s 3-4 defense, Kendricks has 3 years of starting experience and has played both inside and outside at rush linebacker. This year he has 87 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks, 2 deflections and 2 picks inside and last year he had 65 tackles, 14.5 for loss, 7 sacks, and a pick on the outside. He’s best fit as a 3-4 middle linebacker, but can also play in a 4-3. He’d be a good blitzing linebacker at the next level as well. He looks like a mid round pick at the next level.

 

11/26/11 12 PM ET

Iowa State at Oklahoma

CB Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma) #32

A day 3 pick, the 5-11 190 pound Fleming has 6 pass deflections and an interception on the season. He’s a 2 year starter and is looking to get drafted late.

CB Leonard Johnson (Iowa State) #23

A rising prospect and a potential day 2 pick, though likely an early day 3 pick, Johnson has 57 tackles, 2 for loss, 6 deflections, and a pick. He had a good game against Oklahoma State’s awesome passing attack and is now rising and if he plays well against Oklahoma, he could end up in the 2nd day of the draft.

11/26/11 3:30 PM ET

Alabama at Auburn

DT Josh Chapman (Alabama) #99

Josh Chapman doesn’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet with 20 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss, and a sack on the season, but the 6-1 310 nose tackle is great at tying up blockers and making things happen for the linebacker behind him in Alabama’s 3-4 defense. He’s gaining some steam as a potential 2nd or even late 1st rounder.

OT Barrett Jones (Alabama) #75

A left tackle at Alabama, Jones, a much better run blocker than a pass protector, projects as a guard at the next level. He’s got great technique, but he’s not very athletic and he doesn’t have the size (6-5 305) to make up for it. However, in Alabama’s run heavy offense, he’s a beast and part of the reason why Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson have had so much success in recent years.

11/26/11 8 PM ET

Notre Dame at Stanford

OLB Darius Fleming (Notre Dame) #45

A hybrid linebacker in Notre Dame’s 3-4/4-3 defense, the 6-2 255 pound Fleming has 49 tackles, 6 for loss, 3.5 sacks, and 3 pass deflections on the season. He looks like a late round pick.

S Delano Howell (Stanford) #26

A 3 year starter at strong safety for Stanford, the 5-11 200 pound Howell has been battling injury problems all year and has just 27 tackles in 8 games. Last year, he had 60 tackles, 1.5 for loss, 1 sack, 5 picks, and 5 deflections. He didn’t have a good game against Oregon, missing several tackles and struggling with Oregon’s speed. The undersized safety is probably a late round pick

 

Week 13 Power Rankings

32. Carolina Panthers 1-10

With every mediocre start Jimmy Clausen has, it looks more and more likely that the Panthers would draft a quarterback like Andrew Luck if given the chance with the (presumably) 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft. Of course if Clausen wins a few games and they aren’t picking #1, they’ll keep him around, but it’s not looking good.

I was a huge supporter of Clausen coming out in 2010 and I personally hope that someone trades for him this offseason. They can get him cheap if the Panthers draft Luck and he’s still got potential. He’s had a bad rookie year, but look at what he’s had to go through. His entire supporting cast is terrible. That’s especially tough for a rookie who is just learning an NFL offense. Hopefully a team with more of a supporting cast (Arizona, San Francisco, Miami) will trade a mid-rounder for Clausen, because I think he can still be a solid signal caller with a better supporting cast.

31. Cincinnati Bengals 2-9

Did the Bengals even play this week? This team has absolutely not shown up in 6 quarters, ever since they took that big early lead against Buffalo, which they promptly blew big time. That Jets game was disgraceful. They might as well have been a college team. That’s how bad they looked.

30. Arizona Cardinals 3-8

I know you’re probably expecting me to do a write up here, but I’m just not going to. HAHAHAHAHA

It wasn’t funny. I wasn’t laughing about anything. I’m not laughing about it. You think this is funny? I take this $#!% serious! Real serious! I put my heart and soul into these Power Rankings every week. I’m just telling you right now what I do every single week! Every single week! I put my freakin’ heart and soul into this, I study my ass off! I don’t go out there and laugh! It’s not funny! Nothing’s funny to me! I don’t want to go out there and get embarrassed on the internet in front of everybody.

(In case you’re confused, watch this)

29. Detroit Lions 2-9

The Lions are Thanksgiving Day turkeys once again. They haven’t won on the holiday since 2003 and they’ve lost their last 8 Thanksgiving Day games by an average of 23.9! Tom Brady has many things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. Tons of money, a supermodel wife, being a celebrity, being an NFL quarterback, 3 Super Bowl rings, playing the Detroit Lions, Deion Branch, the fact that Alphonso Smith can’t cover or tackle to save his life, you get the point. That long Branch TD against Smith was pathetic. First Smith allowed Branch to be wide open for the catch, then he got juked out three separate times on Branch’s run to the end zone. Now you see why Josh McDaniels traded a first rounder for him.

28. Buffalo Bills 2-9

You’re probably expecting me to do a write up here, but instead I’m just going to pull a Steve Johnson, drop the ball and blame God. WHY HAVE YOU FORSAKEN ME!!!

27. Denver Broncos 3-8

Last week I did a detailed overview of Josh McDaniels’ failures in his time in Denver, but still somehow have another to add after just one week. He had someone videotape a 1-6 team’s practice and still lost. I know some people will say, he didn’t knowingly have someone tape the practice. Right. So former Patriot assistant Josh McDaniels hired the guy responsible for Spygate and had perfectly good and legal intentions in doing so. Come on. At least when the Pats did it they won.

26. Dallas Cowboys 3-8

It appears the worst running back in the league, Marion Barber, is injured and will miss a few weeks. Now what terrible back will the Cowboys use to steal 10 carries away from Felix Jones? Barber is averaging a mere 3.1 yards per carry and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. Most of the time he just falls forward and gets stuffed at the line and he only has two carries of longer than 12 yards all year, in 102 attempts. It appears Tashard Choice will get Barber’s carries in his absence and not Felix Jones, but as long as it’s not Barber or Larry Johnson, the Cowboys are better off.

25. Cleveland Browns 3-8

Phew! It looked like for a while that the Browns would actually cover a 10 point spread against the Browns and make me lose my 5 unit pick. In the first half, the Browns led by double digits on several occasions and Jake Delhomme was being efficient and just letting Peyton Hillis do all the work.

 Then in the second half, Delhomme had his trademark implosion (was anyone really surprised) as he threw 2 picks, one returned for a score, as the Panthers battled back to make it a mere 1 point loss. The Panthers actually could have won that game if they didn’t miss a mid range field goal late in the 4th.

An embarrassing stat, Delhomme threw a touchdown to the Panthers last week, a pick six. When he was the Panthers’ starting quarterback in 2009, he didn’t throw a single touchdown to the Panthers in 4 of his 11 starts. With Colt McCoy out for a few more weeks, we’re going to be seeing a lot more of Delhomme in Cleveland. But hey, at least it means the Browns will be drafting higher and be able to get an actual receiver.

24. San Francisco 49ers 4-7

The 49ers were 3-7 going into last week’s game with the Cardinals, then they lost a player in Frank Gore who accounted for 40% of their yards from scrimmage this season. Gore’s out for the season. With Troy Smith looking fairly mediocre, their season now rests on the back of Brian Westbrook. And still, at 4-7, they’re a mere 1 game back of the division with 3 in division games to go against St. Louis, Arizona, and Seattle. Yes, there’s still a chance this once 1-6 team who lost to the Panthers can make the playoffs.

I don’t say this very often, but Jon Gruden had a good idea. During the 49ers/Cardinals broadcast, he proposed a new rule that only teams with 8 wins can make the playoffs. If you win your division with 7 or fewer wins, you don’t make the playoffs. Instead, a 3rd wild card team makes the playoffs and the best wild card team gets a round 1 home game rather than said 7 win team. Of course Gruden said that this rule should be changed for THIS season, which is impossible, but a half coherent thought by Gruden is a record of some sort.

23. Oakland Raiders 5-6

Is anyone really surprised? After beating the Chiefs and being in a tie with Kansas City for first in the division during the bye, the Raiders have lost their last 2 by a combined 48 points. Neither of their quarterbacks, Jason Campbell, nor Bruce Gradkowski can do anything. Darren McFadden once looked like an MVP candidate, but now has 18 carries for 16 yards in his last 2 games. Now they sit at 5-6 and look likely to miss the playoffs once again. In fact, if they lose out, they can still have their 8th straight year or 11 or more losses. Not entirely impossible.

22. Minnesota Vikings 4-7

Following the Vikings’ win over the Redskins and the Cowboys 2-1 record in 3 games with Jason Garrett, I would not be surprised if every team in the league fired their head coach in an attempt to win next week. It seems to work. In all, seriousness, this team should have fired Brad Childress weeks ago. He was simply someone the players weren’t buying into and when they finally fired him it was too late for their season.

21. Houston Texans 5-6

The fact that Cortland Finnegan and Andre Johnson got the same fine is ridiculous. Cortland Finnegan started the fight, provoked Johnson’s response, yanked off Johnson’s helmet, what was Johnson supposed to do, stand there and take it. Finnegan’s a dirty player who absolutely tries to hurt people (he’s not very good at it because he’s tiny). Finnegan has done similar things in the past and should have been suspended. Instead, Finnegan gets the same 25K fine as Andre Johnson.

Here’s a video of the fight if you haven’t seen it. And what’s with Finnegan clapping at the end of it. Is he clapping that he just got his ass kicked or is he clapping that he was finally able to shutdown Johnson, by getting him kicked out of the game? For the record, Johnson caught 9 balls and a score against Finnegan, who is supposed to be one of the better corners in the league. Instead Finnegan is just a punk who looks like Pauly D. And even The Jersey Shore “star” was offended by the comparison. Any time someone from Jersey is offended to be compared with you, you’ve got problems.

20. Seattle Seahawks 5-6

Just when you think this is the legitimate team in the NFC West, they fall flat on their faces in back to back games, losing both by double digits, one at home to an overrated Chiefs team in a game where they just looked absolutely terrible. The MNF crew seemed to think this team was the most likely to be able to win a playoff game because they have the best quarterback.

Well, except they can’t stop anyone, their good receivers end after Mike Williams who used to be a major bust and also is often injured, and their running back Marshawn Lynch is someone I strongly considered ranking with Marion Barber and Larry Johnson as the worst running backs in the league. Lynch is averaging 3.1 yards per carry since arriving in Seattle. I have no idea why Justin Forsett isn’t starting over him. Oh, and as for Matt Hasselbeck being the best quarterback in the division, MNF Crew, meet Sam Bradford.

19. Washington Redskins 5-6

This team is the most boring team on the field in the league. The only time I was ever able to come up with anything interesting to say about them was after the McNabb fiasco. So I’m going to say something else about the Derek Anderson incident again.

Replays show Anderson was clearly laughing on the sideline, so Anderson clearly is in denial or has selective amnesia, but the question remains, what could Lutui have said to Anderson to make him laugh. I have a few suggestions.

“Boy, you’ve really killed Larry Fitzgerald’s fantasy value”

“Can you believe people thought we’d be competitive without Kurt Warner”

“Someone picked you up in my fantasy league and started you this week”

“I can’t believe the media hasn’t noticed you drench yourself in sludge before every game”

“Can you believe people paid to watch this game?”

18. Tennessee Titans 5-6

3 weeks ago this team was 5-3, one game back of the best record in the AFC, and had just acquired Randy Moss from the Vikings through a waiver claim. 3 weeks later, they’re 5-6. Randy Moss has 4 catches for 49 yards in 3 games, but he’s not the problem. He’s kept his mouth shut, likely in an attempt to actually be playing football next season.

Vince Young hurt his thumb, wanted to go back into the game, got angry he didn’t go back into the game, lashed out at Coach Jeff Fisher, stormed out of the locker room post-game, was placed on IR banned from team meetings. That left Rusty Smith to start against the Texans. The Texans rank 31st in the league against the pass, but Smith still was only 17 for 31 for 138 yards, no touchdowns, and 3 picks. They can forget about the playoffs now and their only hope for a .500 season is that Kerry Collins comes back from injury soon to lead the team at quarterback.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-5

The Jaguars got lucky again last week. They didn’t win, but they were able to look dominant against the Giants. People will use this as a reason for why they are legitimate contenders in the AFC South. However, the Giants are in the middle of a second half swoon right now and have multiple injuries in their receiving corps and on their offensive line. This is still a team that’s not going to be able to beat the Colts in a few weeks in a game that could decide the division. They beat the Colts earlier this year, and even that required a 59 yard field goal at the end of regulation, essentially a miracle.

 

16. Miami Dolphins 6-5

What a difference a week makes. One week after getting shutout at home by Chicago, they get their starting quarterback back and go into Oakland and win by multiple scores. I still think they’re out of the playoff race at 6-5, but every good game Chad Henne has is a positive. He’s been extremely inconsistent this year and there are going to be opportunities for them to get a different quarterback in the offseason. They need to decide whether or not they want to pursue that option.

15. St. Louis Rams 5-6

Deep in the pathetic abyss known as the NFC West, there’s team known as the St. Louis Rams who are actually a legitimate team. Sam Bradford really does get better every week and is putting together a rookie year comparable to Matt Ryan’s in 2008. It’s been that impressive. Ryan had more wins, but Ryan also had more of a supporting cast. Bradford’s top 3 receivers have all gone down for the year and there weren’t that many of them to begin with.

Meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo deserves at least some Coach of the Year votes. This team had one win last year. Spags has them at 5-6 now and their defense is tied for 5th in the league with 31 sacks. They had 25 all last year. Spags is a genius with pass rushes and has gotten the most out of Chris Long, who once looked like a bust, and James Hall who is 33 and had 4.5 sacks all last year.

14. Kansas City Chiefs 7-4

This team is really playing better in these last two weeks. I think they’re motivated by the Broncos destroying them two weeks ago and by all the hype that the Chargers are getting despite the fact that the Chiefs are in first in the division and beat the Chargers week 1.

Todd Haley is slowly learning that Matt Cassel needs a good running game to be successful and that Jamaal Charles is loads better than Thomas Jones. Charles has 1021 yards on 163 carries, while Jones has 712 carries on 176 carries. Charles is also the better pass catcher with 305 more receiving yards than Jones, so it was good to see Charles get more carries than Jones week 13 for the 3rd time all season.

Cassel’s stats are looking great despite his mediocre arm because the defense has to fear the running game and because of Dwayne Bowe. In Bowe’s last 3 games alone he has 32 catches for 465 yards and 7 scores. That’s a decent season for some guys. In his last 7 he has 49 catches for 733 yards and a whopping 13 scores. That’s a great season for most guys. Granted Matt Cassel doesn’t seem to be even trying to throw to anyone else, but it’s still impressive.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-4

This continues to be the most predictable team in the league. Everyone they’ve beaten has a worse record than them and everyone they’ve lost to has a better record than them. The teams they’ve beaten are a combined 19-58 and the teams they’ve lost to are a combined 33-11. Makes sense to me.

12. New York Giants 7-4

Don’t let that win fool you. This team is still imploding in the second half as they normally do. The Jaguars actually dominated that game for about 2 and a half quarters before they took their foot off the gas and let the Giants come back and win it. Unless you’re new to this site, you would know that I don’t think fairly highly of the Jaguars and their fluke wins this season so the fact that the Jags dominated that game for that long is really pathetic on the part of the Giants.

They should have won that game by more than 4. Elite teams would have won that game by 7 or more. The Giants aren’t one. Blame injuries if you want, but the mistakes they made in the first half of the season, turnovers and penalties, haven’t gone away and now they’re actually hurting them.

11. Indianapolis Colts 6-5

Apparently since Peyton Manning can’t do everything, he’s terrible. At least that’s what ESPN is saying. His last 4 aren’t pretty. Let’s look at what he’s had to deal with in the last 4. An offensive line that can’t block at all, Manning’s arm is getting hit on most of his interceptions. A running game that is absolutely terrible, allowing opposing defensive fronts to focus solely on hitting Manning, a defense that can’t stop anyone, forcing Manning to have to throw at a record pace, allowing opposing defensive fronts to focus solely on hitting Manning, and when he does get time, his receiving corps are so banged up that they’re dropping passes left and right.

Also, look at his competition. In his last 4, he’s played the Chargers, Bengals, Patriots, and Eagles. Chargers game excluded (he’s always terrible against the Chargers), he hasn’t been that bad all things considered. Players are coming back for the Colts and in their last 5 they face the Cowboys, Titans (twice), Jaguars, and Raiders. They can easily go 5-0 in those 5 and finish 11-5 and streaking heading into the playoffs. They won’t be able to rest their starters in weeks 16 and 17, as was the case in 2006 when they won the whole thing. This is still a sneaky scary team.

10. Chicago Bears 8-3

I’m more sold on them after their first impressive win, beating the Eagles. However, I can’t help but feeling they would have lost that game if, Asante Samuel played and Andy Reid didn’t make stupid play calls. Samuel is not only the Eagles best shutdown corner, but he’s their best turnover forcer. Not only could the Eagles not stop the Bears passing attack, but they couldn’t take away the ball either. I have to think Samuel would have picked off Cutler once or twice.

Also, I don’t get Andy Reid’s decision to kick a field goal with 5 minutes left trailing by 15. Great, now they’re trailing by 12. It’s still two touchdowns either way you look at it. Even stupider was not even attempting an on sides kick on the following kickoff. How were they supposed to stop the Bears, get the ball back and score twice in 4 minutes?

Also, I still don’t like the combination of Cutler, Martz, and this offensive line. It still has potential disaster written all over it. What happened in that game against the Giants a few weeks ago could happen again at any time.

If they come across a good team that can shut down their run game and force them to pass more than they have had to in the past few weeks, they could be in trouble. Their offensive line is below average at best and a Mike Martz scheme requires two things to work, an offensive line that can block and a quarterback that can handle pressure and get the ball out to the open guy against a blitz rather than forcing a bad throw. The Bears have neither of those. In order to win the Super Bowl, you have to win 3 or 4 games in a row against playoff teams. I don’t think this team is capable of doing that.

9. Baltimore Ravens 8-3

The Ravens are one of several teams who have a chance to make a statement win this week, along with the Bucs and Jets. Both the Jets and Ravens have beaten the teams they are playing this week, but what has happened in between (Big Ben’s return, the Randy Moss trade, the Pats rise to 9-2 with a tough schedule) has made it such that the Ravens and Jets are still seen as inferior to the team they’ve beaten. They’ll have all the motivation needed to go out and there make a statement win. Now let’s just see if they can do that.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-3

The Steelers have to be thanking God after he made Steve Johnson drop that ball in overtime, which would have been the game winning touchdown. Maybe God’s just a Steelers fan. In all seriousness, that game shouldn’t have been that close. The Steelers dominated the first half, but couldn’t put it away late and it almost cost them a victory.

We saw the same thing earlier this year against the Bengals. They needed a late drop to win that one as well. Last year they lost 5 straight because they couldn’t put bad teams away late. The good news, there are no bad teams in the playoffs and unlike last year, this team is going to make the playoffs. I still like how they matchup with the best teams in the league, though I’d like their chances a lot more if the beat Baltimore this weekend and took control of a first round bye and home field in their first playoff game.

7. Philadelphia Eagles 8-3

It appears Michael Vick is human, after throwing a red zone pick late in the 2nd quarter trailing by a mere point. That game was also a reminder that Vick’s coach is still Andy Reid and Reid is known for stupid play calls like attempting a field goal down 15 with less than 5 minutes to go and then not attempting the on sides kick on the ensuing kickoff.

If they had gone for the touchdown, made it, and converted the two, that game would have been tied at the end of regulation. It would have at least given them a shot, as would an on sides kick, but Reid chose not to give his team a chance.

6. San Diego Chargers 6-5

Before playing the Colts, I think every team should just watch the Chargers play them. The Chargers seem to be the only ones who can stop Peyton Manning. They’ve somehow perfected what the other 30 teams can barely do at all. That victory was very impressive and Peyton Manning is going to shit his pants if the Colts and Chargers meet in the playoffs. He has to be scared of this team, especially with the strides Philip Rivers has made at quarterback. Now not only can that stop Manning; they can put a ton of points on the board as well. They’d be higher in these rankings if they didn’t have a history of doing stupid stuff in the playoffs and losing

5. Green Bay Packers 7-4

Poor Packers. They’ve lost 4 games each by a field goal for a combined 12 points. In each one of those games there was a deciding moment that you can look back at and say, that’s why they lost and like in the Atlanta game, it always seems to be because they can’t run the ball at all. This is one of the worst running teams of the last few years to the point where they don’t even try that part of the game. They need to find an answer quick otherwise they could see themselves losing a close playoff game by a field goal.

4. New York Jets 9-2

Their last impressive win was a week 4 24 point win over Buffalo. Since then, they haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record and only one team by double digits, the Bengals last week, a game that was closer than the scoreboard read. Elite teams don’t do that. That being said, if the beat the Pats this week, none of that will matter.

3. New Orleans Saints 8-3

Having scored 30+ in their last 3 and on a 4 game winning streak, this team is heating up at the right time to make another Super Bowl run. If they can avoid shooting themselves in the foot like they did constantly against the Cowboys as they almost blew a 17 point lead, they can go far. Another week with a healthier Reggie Bush will help. Bush made the bulk of the team’s big mistakes in that one as he didn’t look back into game speed yet after missing 8 games.

2. Atlanta Falcons 9-2

I don’t think there’s any doubt this is the best team in the NFC right now. They’ve lost twice, but both to good teams, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Their wins, however, are impressive, beating the Saints in New Orleans, the Rams in St. Louis, the Buccaneers, the Packers, and the Ravens. It looks like more of a sure thing that they get homefield, as their last 5 are all winnable games, at a Tampa Bay team that hasn’t beaten anyone, at a Carolina team that is terrible, at a Seattle team that is terrible, at home against New Orleans where they just don’t lose, and then Carolina again. If this team gets home field, they’ll be dangerous as Matt Ryan’s only lost at home once in his career, in 20 games.

1. New England Patriots 9-2

Beat Pittsburgh: Check

Beat Baltimore: Check

Beat Indianapolis: Check

Beat San Diego: Check

Beat NY Jets: TBD

Needless to say, huge game for the Pats this weekend as they not only try to prove they are in fact the best team in the league, but as, if they lose, they’ll probably have a road playoff game in the first round.

 

Week 13 Pickups

RB Brian Westbrook- San Francisco

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.1%

Westbrook ran for 136 yards and a score on 23 carries against a helpless Arizona front line and will be the lead back the rest of the way with Frank Gore set to go on IR with a fractured hip. With Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis blocking for him and 20 carries per week expected, Westbrook can go for 100 on any week, and he’s a threat catching out of the backfield. He faces Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona (week 17) in his last 5 weeks.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.0%

A weekly fixture here, despite 52 catches for 618 yards and 3 scores this year. Why is he isn’t owned in most leagues I have no idea.

RB Mike Goodson- Carolina

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.6%

Even with Jonathan Stewart back, Mike Goodson had 14 carries for 55 yards and a score and 8 catches for 81 yards. With DeAngelo Williams out for the year, it looks like it’ll be this duo going forward and Goodson certainly didn’t do anything to hurt his case for carries this week.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.6%

With Chad Henne back, Bess was back to normal catching 6 balls for 111 yards. Excluding the game that Tyler Thigpen started, Bess has 54 catches for 591 in 10 games and 3 scores. He’s a PPR starter at the very least.

RB Toby Gerhart- Minnesota

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.3%

AP is scheduled for an MRI this week, so Gerhart is worth being owned  incase AP misses this week or any future weeks, as the Vikings don’t really have anything to play for. Gerhart had 22 rushes for 76 yards and a touchdown after AP went down early against the Redskins.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.4%

Joseph Addai is expected to miss this week again and Hart looks likely to play for the first time since week 8. With how bad Donald Brown and Javarris James look right now, they’ll be giving Hart plenty of carries.

 

WR Brian Hartline- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN ): 1.4%

No matter the quarterback, Hartline is performing and finally coming into his own. He has 18 catches for 327 yards in his last 4 and hasn’t had fewer than 4 catches since week 4. He’s even more valuable with Brandon Marshall out as he becomes the #1 receiver.

QB Jon Kitna- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.7%

Kitna threw for 313 yards against the Saints and is 61 for 88 for 787 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 picks since Jason Garrett took over.

WR Danario Alexander- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.8%

Alexander had 4 catches for 95 yards in his first game back. In the two games he’s started and finished he has 8 catches for 167 yards. The rookie looks very comfortable with Sam Bradford

RB Maurice Morris- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.5%

With Jahvid Best out, Morris is the main man at running back. Best might be done for the season as the Lions have nothing left to play for, so Morris could be the guy the rest of the way as he was late last year. He had 9 carries for 55 yards and also caught 5 balls against the Patriots. He scored twice.

WR James Jones- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.4%

Every week Donald Driver looks less like his old self the more James Jones gets into the action. Jones caught 5 passes for 44 yards last week and has 2 100+ yard games this year, one in which he was the starter over an injured Driver.

QB Shaun Hill- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.8%

He appears to be the man down the stretch for the Lions at quarterback and hasn’t had fewer than 227 yards in a game he’s started and finished. He had 285 yards against the Patriots.

TE Kevin Boss- NY Giants

Percent owned (ESPN): 23.1%

He hasn’t done much this year, but with both Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, Boss had 3 catches for 74 yards and a score this week. Smith and Nicks will miss a few more weeks and Boss has 3 TD in his last 4 games.

TE Ben Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 23.9%

Watson was dropped in a few leagues with the potential of him missing this week with an injury, but he caught 4 passes for 40 yards against Carolina. Despite going out early week 11, Watson has 40 catches for 474 yards this year.

 

Week 13 Picks

Last week overall: 12-4

Last week ATS: 10-6 (+1250/+26%)

Overall picks: 116-60 (.659)

ATS Picks: 92-78-6 (+$3200)

Lock picks: 8-4

Upset picks: 23-22

Sports Betting FAQ 

Week 13 Recap: My 10-6 Week 10 record wasn’t extremely impressive, but earning $1250 or 26% of my total bet, was my 2nd highest total of the year. The key, I nailed my two 5 unit selections. I bet Carolina +10 over Cleveland and St. Louis +4 over Denver and won both. Other than that, I was only 8-6 ATS, going 2-2 with my 4 unit picks, splitting a pair of 3 unit picks, going 3-1 with my 2 picks, and 2-2 with my 1 unit picks, but nailing both 5 unit picks was huge. Straight up, I was 12-4, bringing me to 25-7 in the last 2 weeks after going a season high 13-3 straight up week 12. I got my lock pick (New England) and went 3-1 with my upset picks, with my only loss being Carolina by 1. Through the Thanksgiving games and the early Sunday games, I was 8-1, with that Carolina loss by 1 my only early blemish. I took a hit going 2-3 with my mid-afternoon games before winning both my Sunday and Monday Night picks.

Side note #1: I went back and retotaled my upset pick record, and I am really 23-22 on the season.

Side note #2: I went back and calculated how much I would have earned had I bet one unit on the money line of each of my upset picks, $1304. This is going to be a new feature next year and it seems there is definitely money potential in this for my readers. 

Philadelphia Eagles 37 Houston Texans 24

Spread: – 9.5 Philadelphia

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 2 units (+200)

Houston’s defense is being called one of the worst in NFL history. Michael Vick is a dual threat quarterback and just like the Redskins, the Texans can’t stop either of those threats, especially on a short travel week. I can’t see them possibly holding Vick and the Eagles under 30 points.

The spread is pretty big, but with how many points the Eagles are going to put up on the board at home on Thursday night, I don’t have any problem with putting multiple units on the Eagles. I also don’t think the Eagles defense will be as bad this week as it was against the Bears last week. Without Asante Samuel, the Eagles couldn’t cover anyone downfield. Samuel is back and should be able to nullify Andre Johnson to an extent and that’ll hurt the Texans’ offense.

Buffalo Bills 27 Minnesota Vikings 24 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 Minnesota

Pick against spread: Buffalo 4 units (-440)

This line doesn’t make any sense. The Bills were -6 against the Steelers last week. I know that game was in Buffalo and this one’s in Minnesota, but the Steelers are so much better than the Vikings. Plus, the Bills hardly did anything to make themselves look worse last week, almost beating the Steelers in overtime and losing by 3.

In their last 5, they’ve lost to Kansas City by 3 in overtime, Baltimore by 3 in overtime, Chicago by 3, beaten Detroit, beaten Cincinnati, and lost to Pittsburgh by 3. Now they’re supposed to lose by 7+ to the Vikings? I’m not buying it. I’m expecting a shoot out here as both team’s offenses are better than their defenses and I have the Bills pulling out a close win.

Miami Dolphins 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Spread: -4.5 Miami

Pick against spread: Miami 3 units (-330)

Jake Delhomme will start this one. Jake Delhomme barely beat the 1-10 Panthers by 1 and needed a missed field goal by Carolina and 3 rushing touchdowns by Peyton Hillis to do so. I do think this line is a little low. The Dolphins are more than 4.5 points better than the Jake Delhomme Browns especially at home.

The Dolphins are 1-4 at home, but 3 of those losses were to the Steelers, Patriots, and Jets, and the other one was to the Bears when Chad Henne was out. The Dolphins lose when the other team can stop their running game or has a quarterback that can force Henne to throw a lot to compensate. The Browns can’t do either of those things.

The Dolphins like to control the ball and dominate the field position game and with how many picks Delhomme throws, they’ll be able to do that easily. The only reason I only have 3 units on this is because the Dolphins do play a lot of close games.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Denver Broncos 21

Spread: -9.5 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Kansas City 2 units (-220)

The Broncos won this game in Denver earlier by 20, 49-29. However, this one’s in Kansas City. The Chiefs are 5-0 at home this year and won 8 of their last 10 against Denver in Kansas City before losing last year. This matchup in general is dominated by the home team as Kansas City always seems to have trouble winning in Denver.

The Chiefs are playing with more of an edge since getting blown out by the Broncos. Todd Haley didn’t like how his team played against the Broncos, losing by 20, and was especially angry that the Broncos seemingly ran up the score. Haley even refused to shake McDaniels’ hand after the game.

In the past two games since that loss, they’ve beaten the Cards and the Seahawks by a combined 36 points. Granted, neither of those teams are that good, but are the Broncos any better? They’ve looked terrible in their past 2 and have seemingly given up on their season after losing in embarrassing fashion to the Chargers on Monday Night.

 There’s no way the Broncos can stop Jamaal Charles and his 1021 yards on 163 carries this year with their 21st ranked run defense, as long as Haley doesn’t forget to use Charles again. The spread is big, but the Chiefs have the ability to run up the score in this one and they have all the motivation to do so.

Haley is pissed that the Broncos did the same to them a few weeks ago and this is the Chiefs’ chance to prove to everyone that they are still for real, even after that Broncos loss. They have to be pissed at all the coverage the Chargers are getting with a worse record and having lost to the Chiefs week 1. The Broncos, meanwhile, have nothing to play for at all.

Washington Redskins 28 New York Giants 26 Upset Pick

Spread: -7 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Washington 4 units (-440)

There will be no secrets here. Donovan McNabb knows the Giants. The Giants know Donovan McNabb. This is going to be a heated division rivalry. Heated division rivalries always seem to be close on the scoreboard, so I’m not getting the 7 point spread.

The Redskins are at least an average team, but Vegas still seems to be underrating them after what Vick did to them a few weeks ago. The Giants are not the Eagles. The Giants are actually really struggling now. They did beat the Jaguars, but then again the Jaguars aren’t very good as I’ve been saying all year. The Jaguars still dominated that game for a while and covered a 7 point spread. If David Garrard can do that, then so can Donovan McNabb who knows the Giants better.

Before the Jacksonville game, the Giants lost to the Eagles and Cowboys and shot themselves in the foot many times to those games. This team always has a second half swoon and we seem to be seeing that again this year. It doesn’t help that the Giants are missing both Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. I like the Redskins to win this one and I love them to cover.

Green Bay Packers 35 San Francisco 49ers 20

Spread: -9.5 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay 2 units (+200)

The Packers may have 4 losses, but all 4 of them were by a field goal and all 4 of them were against teams that have 5 or more wins so they’re not losing to slouches. The 49ers are going to be considered slouches in my books until their quarterback situation gets resolved. The 49ers are going to have a really tough time beating a team like the Packers without a good passing game.

The Packers have a good run defense and can stack the box here against Brian Westbrook/Anthony Dixon. Aaron Rodgers can also exploit the 49ers poor pass defense. The 49ers can stop the run with the best of them, but the Packers rarely ever run so that won’t matter. If the Packers score a lot of points early, it’ll be impractical for the 49ers to run.

Before their loss against the Falcons, they outscored their previous 3 opponents 85-10. Those three wins were against the Cowboys, Vikings, and Jets. Yeah, the Cowboys and Vikings are terrible, but the Jets aren’t, and, as we’ve established, the 49ers aren’t very good either, especially on the road.

The 49ers have one road win, at Arizona last week, but I’m not sure we can even call the Cardinals a team. Other than the Arizona game, the only other road game where they looked decent was at Atlanta, where they covered and lost by 3. Their other 3 road games, a 25 point loss in Seattle, a 21 point loss in Kansas City, and a loss in Carolina. Ouch.

 

Tennessee Titans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 21

Spread: -3 Tennessee

Pick against spread: Tennessee 3 units (-330)

Kerry Collins will start this game for the Titans. Collins was 11 for 16 for 110 yards after taking over for an injured Vince Young against the Jaguars a few weeks ago in a 30-3 Tennessee win in Jacksonville. The Titans also have Chris Johnson so we know the Titans will be able to put points on the board in this one.  

The Titans have added Randy Moss since that last game with the Jaguars. Moss isn’t elite, but no one’s figured that out yet. He’s still getting doubled on every play. This is a terrible Jacksonville defense to begin with. They’ll have even more trouble if the double Moss and if they don’t, Moss can still beat them deep. They don’t have anyone who can cover him one-on-one and Kerry Collins has the arm strength to hit him deep unlike Rusty Smith.

I think this line is a little low. The Titans looked bad last week, but they won’t be starting Rusty Smith this week. They’ll be starting Kerry Collins, whose already beaten this Jacksonville team easily. The Jaguars are overrated. They haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record, with the exception of the Colts and even that required an improbable late field goal from 59.

Finally, that 30-3 game is still burned in my mind. I can’t pick the Jaguars here after that. The Titans match up really well with them and the Titans are looking to break a bad 3 game losing streak. They’re better than that streak has made them look. 

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 21

Spread: -4.5 Chicago

Pick against spread: Detroit 1 unit (+100)

The Bears beat the Eagles last week and that’s no minor feat. However, I can’t help thinking they would have lost if the Eagles’ best turnover forcer, Asante Samuel, had played. The Lions actually force a decent amount of turnovers, 21.

This is undoubtedly because of their amazing pass rush, 28 sacks, good for 9th in the league. They can force pressure on the Bears the way they did week 1 when they almost won (or should have won depending on who you’re talking to) in Chicago.

I just still don’t feel safe betting on Jay Cutler as a favorite of more than 3 points against a team that matches up well with him. Cutler struggles under pressure and turns over the ball a ton. Then again, Chicago is clearly the better team, so I’ll make this a one unit bet on the underdog.

Update: Drew Stanton will start for the Lions as Shaun Hill is hurt. My pick’s still the same. I don’t want to bet on Cutler as more than a 3 point favorite against a team that matches up well with him. 

New Orleans Saints 36 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Spread: -6.5 New Orleans

Pick against spread: New Orleans 4 units (-440)

The Saints have scored 30 points in each of their last 3 games and I expect them to do the same again here against a Cincinnati defense that has one of the worst pass rushes in the league and is missing two starters in their secondary. I don’t think the Bengals can score the 23+ points necessary to cover if the Saints score 30.

The Bengals have only scored more than 24 points twice this year, both in losses. They scored 32 against the Falcons, most of which was in garbage time. They also scored 31 against the Bills, but still lost by 18.

Carson Palmer is playing terrible this season and the Saints defense is improved as they’ve gotten healthier in recent weeks. Let’s also not forget that the Bengals have mailed in it as they are unable to make the playoffs. They don’t have the high character players necessary to give close to 100% in meaningless games. They’ve been absolutely terrible since they lost to the Colts.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Spread: Atlanta -2

Pick against spread: Atlanta 4 units (+400)

The Buccaneers covered a 7 point spread in Atlanta earlier this year, no small feat given how good the Falcons are at home. However, there’s no reason this line should only be 2 points. That’s essentially saying these two teams are equal in talent, which just isn’t true.

The Buccaneers might be at home in this one, but they actually have a worse record at home than on the road, getting destroyed by both the Steelers and Saints at home by a combined 50 points. I just can’t see the Bucs winning this one at home. They haven’t beaten anyone of note.

They’ve done a good job of beating the teams they’re supposed to, and hanging with good teams, but they haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record. In order to cover here, the Buccaneers don’t need to just hang with the Falcons. I think they can do that. They need to beat the Falcons and that’s just not something I can see them doing.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 20

Spread: -13 San Diego

Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit (+100)

Anyone else think this line is crazy? The Chargers might be playing better than anyone right now, but to be 13 point favorites over a team that is one game back of them in the standings and beat them earlier this year is kind of ridiculous.

I think this is going to be a double digit win for the Chargers given how they’ve played in recent weeks and how the Raiders have played in recent weeks as well, but I’m not laying 13 points with them right now. I’m taking the underdog +13 for 1.

St. Louis Rams 34 Arizona Cardinals 13 Lock Pick

Spread: -3 St. Louis

Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (+500)

I have a feeling I’m going to be making a lot of money off of the Cardinals in the next few weeks. They’re making their case to be the worst team in the league. They can’t do anything right on either side of the ball. They’ve lost 6 in a row and their last 3 by a combined 57 points. They have the 2nd worst point differential in the league; only the Panthers are worse.

They did beat the Rams in St. Louis earlier this year, but the Cardinals are playing so much worse now and Sam Bradford is getting better every game. He conquered his road woes winning in Denver, a tough place to win. The Cardinals just got stomped at home by the 49ers. Why can’t the Rams do the same?

Teams who just lost by 17 or more on MNF are 16-33 ATS in the next week since 1999. The Rams actually have a quarterback and they can run just as well as the 49ers with Steven Jackson, which is how the 49ers dominated that game. The 3 point line essentially is just telling me to pick a winner. I can’t see the Cardinals winning this game.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Carolina Panthers 16

Spread: -6 Seattle

Pick against spread: Seattle 3 units (+300)

I lost ATS with the Seahawks last year and won with the Jaguars so those two teams are tied for the teams I’m worst at judging. I’m 2-9 picking both of their games. However, I’m still going to put multiple units on this one. The Panthers have to travel 3 time zones and go into Seattle, where it’s very tough to win, especially as the Panthers have a rookie quarterback.

Oh, and let’s not forget, the Panthers are terrible. They almost won last week, but they were playing the Jake Delhomme Browns. Before that game, they had lost by double digits in 4 straight and 15+ in 3 straight. In fact, they have 8 losses by more than 10 points this year. I feel safe taking the Seahawks at home -6 even though I haven’t judged them well this year. I have, for the record, picked 9 of Carolina’s 11 games correctly. It’s not that hard. Just bet against them.

Indianapolis Colts 37 Dallas Cowboys 24

Spread: -5 Indianapolis

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 3 units (-330)

I feel like we’re getting line value here. The Colts have lost their last 2 and 3 of their last 4, but those losses were to the Patriots, Chargers, and Eagles, all very good teams. The Cowboys are going to be a much easier matchup for them. They’re also going to get Mike Hart back from injury so they’ll be able to run more, not like they’ll even need to run with how bad the Cowboys are against the pass.

The Colts have the better defense and the significantly better quarterback, yet are only 5 point favorites. I expect the Colts to win out from this point on until the playoffs, starting with a statement win here, a statement that says, we’re still the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 3 units (+300)

The Ravens won this game by 3 in Pittsburgh earlier this year, but that was with Charlie Batch at quarterback for the Steelers. They also beat the Steelers last year, but that was with Dennis Dixon at quarterback. Big Ben is going to play in this game. Joe Flacco has never beaten him and I’m not going to pick him do that here even at home.

The Steelers are battling injuries, but the Ravens have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot with penalty and turnovers. That’s why they were unable to beat the Charie Batch Steelers by more than 3. I simply trust the Steelers more to win a big game like this, especially with Big Ben at quarterback.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 20

Spread: -3.5 Patriots

Pick against spread: New England 1 unit

The Patriots lost to the Jets week 2, but that’s a long time ago. Since then, the Patriots have traded Randy Moss, beaten the Steelers, beaten the Ravens, beaten the Chargers, and beaten the Colts. The Patriots were leading that game in the first half, but in the second half, Tom Brady decided not to throw to anyone else, but Randy Moss deep. Moss was well covered by Antonio Cromartie.

Moss is gone and the Patriots’ offense looks a lot different now. They don’t have one great receiver. They have a lot of good receivers who can get open and Brady can find the open guy. The Jets are good at shutting down one or two receivers, depending on what kind of game Antonio Cromartie has, but the Patriots have more than one or two good receivers.

This is how the Jets lost to the Colts in the playoff last year. The Colts had too many weapons to be stopped. The Jets also don’t have a great pass rush with 24 sacks in 11 games, a decent number but nothing amazing. The only way to beat Tom Brady this year has been to pressure him. His line is playing as good as it ever has and if he gets time back there, he’s going to find someone open.

Those 24 sacks are also kind of misleading. The Jets blitz a ton. If they do that this week against the Patriots, Brady’s just going to kill the Jets with the screen game and throws over the middle to their tight ends. The Jets also have only won by double digits once since week 4. That was last week and that game against the lowly Bengals was a lot closer than it seemed. Considering they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record in that stretch since week 4, it’s tough to call the Jets an elite team because, quite frankly, they’re not playing like one.

The Patriots, however, are undoubtedly one. They’ve beaten the Colts, Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers. They’re the best team in the league right now and they haven’t lost at home with Tom Brady in 25 straight. I’m only putting one unit on this though because the Jets are a good team who has likely been preparing for this for weeks. This is their Super Bowl and they are a good balanced and complete team. It’s going to be a close one. I’m not denying that. But I’ve got the Pats winning and taking a commanding lead in the AFC.

 

Week 13 Fantasy Report

 

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.8%

He’s not the most talented back, but even with Joseph Addai back last week, Brown still got the bulk of the carries for Indianapolis, rushing for 80 yards and a score on 14 carries. He quietly has double digit carries in each of his last 4 games.

RB Toby Gerhart (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%

Adrian Peterson is expected to miss another game this week. Gerhart didn’t have the best week last week with 42 yards and a score on 17 carries, but he should find some more running room against Denver this week than he did last week against Atlanta and the former Heisman runner up is always good for volume points as long as Peterson isn’t playing.

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.1%

He’s Colt McCoy’s favorite weapon and the rookie receiver quietly has 16 catches for 200 yards and a score in his last 3. He could be coming into his own.

 

QB Vince Young (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.3%

If you lost your starting quarterback to injury (Vick, Schaub, Cutler), you can do a lot worse this week than Vince Young. Young has thrown for 658 yards, 3 touchdowns, 4 picks, and also rushed for another 45 in 2 starts. It appears he’ll get a 3rd this week over Michael Vick.

WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.1%

Malcom Floyd can’t stay healthy and with the exception of one bad game, Brown has 12 catches for 226 yards and a score in his last 3. He’s a starting receiver in what is still a good offense for fantasy points purposes.

WR Riley Cooper (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Philadelphia plays on Thursday this week and it doesn’t look like Jeremy Maclin will make it back in time for that game. Cooper has 8 catches for 146 yards and a score in 2 starts in Maclin’s absence.

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.7%

Baldwin quietly has 39 catches for 604 yards and 2 scores this season. He’ll be Tarvaris Jackson’s favorite target next week once again with Sidney Rice out.