What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on. Views held in write ups do not necessarily represent the views of footballfanspot.com.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (8)  10 – 0   next vs Detroit Lions

Not an impressive win of Tampa Bay, buy a win none the less.  The Packers are still undefeated and Aaron Rodgers still looking very good.  Tough match up this weekend, but very winnable.  Are we seeing our first 19-0 team, we are thinking so.

(2)  2. San Francisco 49ers  9 – 1   next at Baltimore Ravens

Held serve against the Cardinals.  Proved they are deserving of this division, but this week they are needing to prove they deserving of being in the playoffs.  First legitimate rushing threat, lets see if they are truly #1 rush defense in a battle of the Harbaugh brothers.

(3)  3.  Pittsburgh Steelers  7 – 3   next at Kansas City Chiefs

Steelers being classy Steelers, just sit back, collect the wins, get into the playoffs, then turn it on. Its awful quite in Pittsburgh. . . . For now.  Things are about too get ugly and it is Terrible Towel Time!!!

(4)  4.  New Orleans Saints  7 – 3   next vs New York Giants

Breesus and company could easily come out of that bye of theirs firing on all cylinders healthy and well oiled. . . .They could also break down and be rusty just as easy for the most important stretch of the schedule this season.

(5)  5. New England Patriots  7 – 3   next at Philadelphia Eagles

Pats finally pulled away from the Jets with a win over the Chiefs.  Now on a two-game win streak, people have quickly forgotten about that two-game losing streak.  With a very complimentary second half schedule, things are looking good in New England.

(6)  6. Baltimore Ravens  7 – 3    next vs San Francisco 49ers

It was odd not seeing Ray Lewis on the field during a Ravens game. But I guess that’s a permanent reality that Baltimore fans will soon face. With a game full of officiating controversy, the Ravens were able to sneak one past Cincinnati, but big brother is in town, lets see how they do against each other.

(10)  7. Detroit Lions  7 – 3   next at Green Bay Packers

We would like to say they have finally found a running game, but it was just the Carolina Panthers lack of stopping the run.  With Chicago having QB issues, Detroit has a new life in the playoff race and they will work on taking an advantage of it. Expect a good game on Thanksgiving.

 

(7)  8. Chicago Bears  7 – 3   next at Oakland Raiders

Cutlers injury is devastating, he’s playing the best ball of his career and now Chicago turns to Caleb Hanie to limp them into the playoffs so maybe, just maybe Cutler comes back. NFC is extremely tough tho, schedule is favorable, however we say they might just miss the playoffs. . .

(8)  9. Houston Texans 7 – 3   next at Jacksonville Jaguars

Texans use bye week to prepare for life with Matt Leinart.  With Foster, Tate, and the return of Andre Johnson can they be just as productive with Leinart or is this division title run over?  Oh yea, they also have the #1 overall defense, we like their chances of still winning this division.

(14)  10. Atlanta Falcons  6 – 4   next vs Minnesota Vikings

 Atlanta might be the best team currently out of the playoffs right now. . . . Again that is how tough it is in the NFC.  Falcons regrouped at home against Titans, allowing CJ2k only 13 yards on 12 carries.  Another easy week to help keep them on pace with New Orleans.

(9)  11. New York Giants  6 – 4   next at New Orleans Saints

Their opportunity to bury the Eagles themselves and get the leg up in the division. . . . . And they still couldn’t do it…..When Philly makes a drastic late push and gives the Giants headaches they have only themselves to blame.

(11)  12. Dallas Cowboys  6 – 4   next vs  Miami Dolphins
With a current 3-game win streak and a very winnable game things are looking better.  Throw in the Giants 2-game losing skit and a Monday Night game against New Orleans, things now look great for Dallas.  Jason Garrett has dialed-up a successful offensive game plan, but will it be enough?  We will soon see.

(12)  13. Cincinnati Bengals  6 – 4   next vs Cleveland Browns

After being screwed by the officials, they have a real good chance of getting things back on track this weekend.  Two tough losses will be shortly forgotten after a weekend of flexing on the Browns.  Rookie connection back in full-effect.

(NR)  14. Oakland Raiders  6 – 4   next vs Chicago Bears

Still leading the division after downing the Vikes.  Carson Palmer makes everyone around him better. WR’s are better and once DMC comes back. . . . Oh Boy. The Black Hole doesn’t look so dark anymore.

(13)  15. New York Jets  5 – 5   next vs Buffal Bills

Seeming that he loves to talk so much, Rex Ryan, like Tony Sparano, can now officially say. “We’ve Been Tebowed.”  That guarantee is looking less and less reachable.  With being on the verge of not making the playoffs, they need to start winning and BADLY!!

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Garett Krobot of CJ Sports NFL Talk

 

11/19/11 12 PM ET

Wisconsin at Illinois

RB Jason Ford (Illinois) #21

Making the push to get drafted, in his first year getting significant carries, Ford, the lead man for Illinois, has 518 yards and 7 touchdowns on 138 carries with 14 catches for 125 yards. A 6-2 230 North/South runner, when last I saw him, he had a season high 100 yards on 21 carries against a stout Penn State defensive front.

G Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) #70

Looks like the next in a long line as great Wisconsin offensive lineman, Zietler plays right guard for Wisconsin and has helped Montee Ball become one of the country’s leading rushers with 1243 yards and 23 touchdowns on 185 carries. He has had a lot of help from Peter Konz, Wisconsin’s center and both figure to be early round picks, but Konz is hurt and won’t play this week so I’m curious to see how Zietler does without Konz next to him.

11/19/11 3:30 PM ET

Mississippi State at Arkansas

WR Joe Adams (Arkansas) #3

With legit 4.3 speed, Adams is one of the fastest receivers in college football. He’s also an accomplished one as he could finish as Arkansas’ all time leading receiver (provided teammate Jarius Wright doesn’t beat him out for the honor). The 5-11 195 pound Adams has 43 catches for 568 yards and 2 touchdowns this season after 50 catches for 813 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. Deadly in space, Adams has also rushed for a 93 yard touchdown this season and has scored 3 times on punt returns this season, 4 times in his career. Given the value of speed in the NFL, he could be a day 2 pick.

DE Jake Bequette (Arkansas) #91

An above average pass rusher with a great motor and strong ability against the run, the 6-5 270 pound Bequette came into this year as a day 2 prospect at left end after 32 tackles, 8.5 for loss, and 7 sacks last season. He missed some time early in the season with injuries and didn’t get going for a while, but he still has 21 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 6 sacks in 7 games this season. He’s on fire right now with 16 tackles, 5.5 for loss, and 5 sacks in his last 4 games, all while holding up well against the run. He could end up back in day 2.

11/19/11 8 PM ET

USC at Oregon

RB Marc Tyler (USC) #26

He’s battled plenty of injuries, but at 5-11 230 pound back rushed for 913 yards and 9 touchdowns on 171 carries last season, with 17 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown last year. He’s back from an injury that knocked him out in the Stanford game, but it appears that he has lost his starting job to the speedier Curtis McNeal. Tyler had just 7 carries in his first game back against Washington, though we’ll see if that changes this week against Oregon. On the year, Tyler has 488 yards and 3 touchdowns on 104 carries with 10 catches for 101 yards, but injury issues could force him to be undrafted, especially if he doesn’t get his starting job back.

DE Nick Perry (USC) #8

Perry burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2009, with 25 tackles, 10 for loss, and 9 sacks. He looked poised to be a future first rounder, but after a disappointing sophomore season in which he had 25 tackles, 7.5 for loss, and 4 sacks, he sank back into the projected middle rounds range. However, now a junior, Perry is having another fantastic season and is gaining some steam as a potential day 2 pick. A 6-3 250 pound end with legit 4.5 speed, Perry has 47 tackles, 11 for loss, and 7 sacks in 10 games this season and gave future first round pick Jonathan Martin fits in USC’s loss to Stanford. He looks like a day 2 pick as a 3-4 outside linebacker if he were to declare this year, but he might return because another strong season could land him in the first round in 2013.

 

ESPN 3 Replays

11/17/11 8 PM ET

North Carolina at Virginia Tech

S Eddie Whitley (Virginia Tech) #15

A mid rounder or even a late day 2 prospect coming into the season, Whitley’s stock is on the decline now because of his struggles against the run, particularly against Georgia Tech. The 6-1 195 pound safety is undersized and doesn’t make up for it with particularly excellent coverage skills. On the season, he has 51 tackles, 1 for loss, 2 picks, and 2 pass deflections in 10 games.

DT Tydreke Powell (North Carolina) #91

A member of North Carolina’s talented defensive line, Powell has 40 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and a sack on the season after 47 tackles, 3 for loss, and 2.5 sacks last year. At 6-3 310, his strength is against the run and he fits as a 4-3 nose tackle or 3-4 defensive end at the next level. He looks like a mid rounder.

11/12/11 12 PM ET

Michigan State at Iowa

OT Riley Reiff (Iowa) #77

The consensus #3 offensive tackle in this class, Reiff has excellent athleticism at 6-6 300 with a 40 time in the 4.8s or 4.9s. He needs to get bigger, but that will come with age. He’s having a fantastic season and looks like a top 15 pick, though Michigan State’s fierce defensive line represents one of the toughest test’s of his career.

G Joel Foreman (Michigan State) #67

He’s played both guard positions and center, Foreman is the veteran experienced one of Michigan State’s line. He’s a borderline draftable prospect.

11/19/11 10:15 PM ET

California at Stanford

OT Mitchell Schwartz (California) #72

A mid round pick and climbing at left tackle for California, Schwartz looks like a swing tackle at the next level. Here he’ll get a matchup with Chase Thomas, a 3-4 outside linebacker for Stanford who is seeking to redeem himself after struggling as a pass rusher against Matt Kalil and USC and missing several tackles against Oregon and their speedy playmakers.

DE Trevor Guyton (California) #92

Playing in Cal’s 3-4 defense as a 3-4 defensive end, the 6-4 285 pound Guyton will have that advantage as he transitions to the next level. He looks like a natural fit for a 3-4 defense, though so did Tyson Alualu and Cameron Jordan, two of Cal’s 3-4 defensive ends who went on to get drafted in the first round by 4-3 teams. A likely mid rounder, Guyton has 36 tackles, 10 for loss, and 5 sacks on the season and gets a test here in Stanford’s stout offensive line.

11/19/11 8 PM ET

Oklahoma at Baylor

RB Terrance Ganaway (Baylor) #24

A relative unknown coming into this season, Ganaway has rushed for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns on 148 carries as part of Baylor’s explosive offense. The 6-0 240 pound Ganaway runs with great power and looks like a rotational running back or a fullback at the next level. He looks like a late rounder.

DT Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (Baylor) #90

Following in the footsteps of Phil Taylor, a nose tackle from Baylor who went in the first round last year, Jean-Baptiste has 26 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and 1.5 sacks on the season as a 6-1 330 pound nose tackle. He holds up well against the run and always has an impact when I watch Baylor. I think he’s an underrated prospect who could start at nose tackle at the next level. He still looks like a consensus late rounder.

11/19/11 12 PM ET

Michigan at Nebraska

C David Molk (Michigan) #50

One of the top centers in this draft class, Molk looks like a day 2 or early day 3 pick in April. He’s among the top 5 or so centers in this draft class with guys like Mike Brewster, Peter Konz, William Vlachos, Ben Jones, etc.

DT Mike Martin (Michigan) #68

Not a guy who is going to show up big time on the stat sheet, but his ability against the run will get him drafted as a rotational 4-3 defensive tackle. On the season, the 6-3 305 pounder has 43 tackles, 5.5 for loss, and 3 sacks.

11/19/11 3:30 PM ET

Clemson at NC State

MLB Audie Cole (NC State) #42

A stat stuffer at middle linebacker who has a strength against the run, the 6-4 240 pound Cole has 82 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks, and 4 pass deflections in 10 games this season. Last year, went he was an outside linebacker, he had 86 tackles, 10 for loss, 5 sacks, 3 deflections, and a pick. He is fresh off a dominating game against North Carolina in which NC State’s front 7 stuffed North Carolina’s ground game all night. He looks like a borderline day 2/day 3 prospect.

TE George Bryan (NC State) #84

A big, physical tight end at 6-3 260 who has some pass catching abilities and can take advantage of a weak tight end class and sneak into day 2. Though run blocking is his specialty, he does have 19 catches for 188 yards and 2 scores on the season after 35 catches for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns last season and 40 catches for 422 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2009.

11/19/11 3:30 PM ET

Penn State at Ohio State

OT Mike Adams (Ohio State) #75

After missing the first 5 games of the season with suspension, Adams, once a former potential first round pick, has shown some bad and some good since returning. An All-Big 10 first teamer in 2010, the 6-6 320 Mike Adams and shown awesome run blocking abilities this year and throughout his time at Ohio State and he isn’t a bad pass protector either. It’s no surprise that Ohio State’s offense got better as soon as he returned. However, he’s not the most athletic guy in the world and he struggled with Whitney Mercilus’ speed rush against Illinois, surrendering 2 sacks. He looks like a right tackle at the next level and probably a 2^nd round pick

WR Derek Moye (Penn State) #6

The 6-5 Moye could be Penn State’s all time leading receiver when all is said and done. He caught 48 passes for 785 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2009 and 53 catches for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2010. In 2011, despite missing 3 games with a foot injury and having inconsistent quarterback play, Moye has 34 catches for 592 yards and 3 touchdowns in 8 games. He looks like a mid to late rounder.

11/19/11 7 PM ET

LSU at Mississippi

S Brandon Taylor (LSU) #18

A former cornerback, the 6-0 195 pound Taylor is done a good job at free safety for LSU this year. He has done well in coverage and plays the run better than his size would suggest. A potential mid rounder, Taylor has 30 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 5 deflections, and 2 picks on the season. He always seems to make plays when I watch LSU.

S Damien Jackson (Mississippi) #1

Hoping to get drafted late, the 6-2 210 pound Jackson has 60 tackles, 2.5 for loss, a sack, a pick and a deflection on the season. He was also decently productive in 2010 with 68 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and 4 deflections.

 

32. Carolina Panthers 1-8

Brian St. Pierre was 13 for 28 for 173 yards (88 of which came on one play), 1 touchdown, and two cover losing TAINTs. Take away that 88 yarder to Gettis, and he was 12 for 27 for 85 yards, 0 touchdowns, and two TAINTs. That being said, that’s about what we were to expect from him. Just about everyone knows his story by now.

St. Pierre is a career journeyman backup who had 5 career attempts in 8 career starts, 2 completions for 12 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. St. Pierre didn’t go through a training camp and was not planning to play this season, instead staying home with his toddler as a stay at home dad. He hadn’t even been through an NFL practice since January as the Cardinals 3^rd stringer. Considering the circumstances, he didn’t do a horrible job.

However, John Fox should have been fired on the spot for bringing in St. Pierre to start over rookie Tony Pike. Fox’s move was clearly an eff you to the organization. Fox knows he’s gone after the season with his contract running up and his team 1-8 on the season. So he doesn’t care about what happens to the franchise.

He doesn’t care what rookie Tony Pike can do for a team, because he’s not going to be there next year. He was doing this all season long, starting Matt Moore over Jimmy Clausen, the 2010 2^nd round pick and a potential franchise quarterback.

Fox justified the action by mentioning the time he brought the 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde out of retirement in to start in 2007. However, that was for a winning team. Not some time with nothing left to play for. And Testaverde was a 45,000 career yard passer. St. Pierre was a 12 career yard passer. St. Pierre himself mentioned he was uncomfortable by the Testaverde reference.

For undermining the organization, Fox needs to be fired and replaced with an interim coach who is willing to evaluate their youth for the rest of the season.

31. Cincinnati Bengals 2-8

This entire team has given up. This team doesn’t have the high character nucleus to keep at it when times get tough and as a result, they’ve absolutely given up. Even when they led 28-7 over the Bills this week, I didn’t think, this team looks like a team that deserves to win another game, and at the end of the day, they didn’t win the game, blowing the lead in epic fashion to lose 49-31 to a team that just a week earlier didn’t have a win.

They need a new leader, specifically at head coach and quarterback. Carson Palmer is owed a ton of money for next season and Marvin Lewis isn’t under contract for next year so it’s very likely that both of those years are going to be gone and that’s for the good of this franchise.

30. Arizona Cardinals 3-7

I asked this question last week, but I’ll ask it again, how has this team won 3 games? They looked horrendous in their 31-13 loss to the lowly Chiefs, a loss that was not as close as the score would indicate. The Cardinals were dominated for most of the game, with the exception of their 3-0 early lead, and just looked absolutely terrible in all facets of the game, passing offense, rushing offense, all forms of defense.

Their remaining schedule has vs. San Francisco, vs. St. Louis, vs. Denver, at Carolina, vs. Dallas, and @ San Francisco. That’s not an impressive schedule at all, but I wouldn’t bet on this team to win any of those games, even against Carolina. Traveling 3 time zones to play an equally miserable Carolina team is a game they could very easily lose. Jimmy Clausen is better than anything the Cardinals have at quarterback.

29. Buffalo Bills 2-8

The Bills have won two straight and might have taken themselves out of the running for Andrew Luck. D’oh! They now have as many wins as the Bengals, one fewer than the Cardinals (who might not win another game), and one more than the Panthers, all 3 of whom could take Luck if they had the chance. Not to mention 2 win Detroit, who could trade with a team looking for Luck, and keep him away from Buffalo if Buffalo were picking below them. And the Bills would be out of Luck (pun intended).

That would leave them with the choice between reaching for Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker, both of which have major issues and might not be worth a top 5 pick, or going another year with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think in that case, you give Fitzy another year with an improved defense and see where that gets you. Fitzy’s really grown on me in the past few weeks. Not loving him as a quarterback, but I do see the talent. After all, I wouldn’t be calling him Fitzy if I didn’t think he had some potential.

28. Detroit Lions 2-8

What happened to the fighting Lions that had dignity and wouldn’t let themselves lose by more than a touchdown? The Lions had their single biggest loss of the season last week, and it was to 3 win Dallas. A week before, they lost to the previous winless Bills.

This team doesn’t have that same fight in them that they after Stafford went down the first time. With Stafford out once again, a 3^rd major injury in 2 years for the 2009 1^st overall pick, they lack life and fight. They can only hope Stafford doesn’t become Greg Oden 2.0.

27. Dallas Cowboys 3-7

Where was this 3 weeks ago? Since the firing of Wade Phillips, the Cowboys have only committed 2 turnovers and have 692 total yards of offense. You can’t say the same thing about their defense, 818 yards of offense allowed in 2 games, but it’s tough to bring production out of a defense with no talent.

Garrett is an offensive guy and he’s getting it out of his offense, even without Romo. And more importantly, they’re winning even though they’re getting out-gained. They’re not shooting themselves in the foot and their playing efficiently, outscoring their opponents 68-39.

26. Minnesota Vikings 3-7

I wouldn’t be surprised if Brett Favre retired this week. There’s nothing left for him in the NFL and he is a selfish. His selfishness is also what makes him great and competitive. He wants to be the guy. He wants to be out there on the field. He wants to win. Those are the priorities for him. He’s not a for the good of the team guy; he’s a for the good of himself guy, again not necessarily a bad thing as a quarterback.

He has set every major passing record in the NFL, the good and the bad. His team can’t make the playoffs this year and he’s a 41 year old man with a severely banged up body and a 3-7 team who isn’t producing on the field. There’s nothing left for him and I don’t think he’s the type of guy who is going to sit around to make people feel good when there’s nothing left for him. All I can see him sticking around for is to make 300 straight starts. But, if he’s benched, forget about it.

Also this week, Brad Childress was fired. With the Vikings officially out of it, 4 back of the Packers and losing the tiebreaker, so essentially 5 games out with 6 to go, they needed to go a different direction at coach. I’ve heard a lot of good things about Leslie Frazier, and more importantly, I haven’t heard bad things about him like I have with Childress, namely that his players hate him. When Percy Harvin got into a fight with Childress, the players took Harvin’s side. Bad sign. Love the move to fire him. It should have happened a few years ago.

As much as I hate to agree with Matt Millen, I think Favre needs to remain the starter the rest of the way because he gives them the best chance to win. The answer at quarterback isn’t on the roster anywhere. I personally loved the exchange between Millen and Steve Young when debating this issue.

Millen said to Young “you don’t have any idea what goes on in that freaking locker room.” Interesting. I seem to remember Steve Young spending a lot of time in locker rooms, about 14 years, as he won 3 Super Bowls and was elected to the Hall of Fame. He might not know what goes on in that exact locker room, but he probably has a better idea than Millen, whose claim to fame in football is being arguably the worst GM in NFL history and the architect behind the NFL’s first and only 0-16 team.

25. Denver Broncos 3-7

The Broncos’ embarrassing Monday Night loss to the clearly superior San Diego Chargers essentially eliminated them from contention, dropping them to 3-7. This means Josh McDaniels and the Broncos are 5-15 in their last 20, after that fluke 6-2 start to 2009.

I have never been a McDaniels supporter, in fact, on these power rankings, I repeatedly said that the Broncos weren’t as good as their record showed when they started off hot in 2009, much to the dissatisfaction of Broncos fans. However, I haven’t bashed him in a while so I think I’ll do that today.

I’m not going to bash him as a quarterbacks coach. He’s done amazing work with Kyle Orton, just like he did with Tom Brady. His skills as a quarterbacks coach were never doubted by me, but his ability to lead an entire team and more important be their GM and make player personnel decisions, is lacking, in my opinion.

First let’s start with the good. The move to flip Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton, 2 1^st round picks, and a 3^rd rounder was genius. Orton, alone, is better than Cutler right now. I bashed that move when it happened, but I’m going back on that now.

Now, to everything he’s done wrong. How about those high draft picks? He had a lot of them. What did he do with them? He used the 12^th overall pick in 2009 on Knowshon Moreno. I contended when they made the pick, that they could have gotten Moreno at 18, when they picked next with Chicago’s selection, and I don’t like the idea of using first rounders on running backs in the first place, but I didn’t mind the move. 18 or so months later, Moreno is an oft injured back with a 3.7 YPC. I’m not declaring him a bust yet, but it’s not looking good.

With that 18^th pick, Mickey D drafted Robert Ayers, who I immediately said would not fit their 3-4 scheme. I was right. Ayers has 38 career tackles and 1.5 career sacks as a rush linebacker and doesn’t look like the elite pass rushing specialist they thought he’d be.

In the 2^nd round, they acquired another pick, which they used on Alphonso Smith. The catch, that pick was a future first rounder, what turned out to be the 14^th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft (for the record the Seahawks used in on Earl Thomas who is having a very good rookie year).

Of course, Smith has grown into a great ball hawker and he’s no slouch in coverage, but he’s doing it for Detroit. McDaniels gave up on Smith after one year and swapped him to Detroit for tight end Dan Gronkowski, who, for the record, was the 255^th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. He has 6 catches for 43 yards this season. Smith has 5 catches this year. As a cornerback. Those 5 picks tie him for 3^rd in the league (oddly enough with Earl Thomas).

With that extra 3^rd round pick they got from Chicago, they were able to move up from the 3^rd into the late 2^nd and take, Richard Quinn. Quinn is a blocking tight end that likely would have been around in the 3^rd, if not in the 5^th. Quinn, who caught 12 balls all of college, has 0 career catches.

Then there was the Peyton Hillis deal. McDaniels give away Hillis as a throw in to Cleveland for Brady Quinn, who is now their unneeded third string quarterback. The lesson, as always, when a future hall of fame coach like Mike Holmgren demands a player you have never considered to be anything in a deal, it’s worth seeing what he can do first.

Hillis looks Pro Bowl bound with 173 carries for 774 carries and 40 catches for 351 yards and 10 total touchdowns. He’s scored more times this year in 10 games, than Moreno has scored in his career…for the Browns.

Brady Quinn, of course, would be better than an unneeded 3^rd stringer if the Broncos didn’t draft Tim Tebow in the 1^st round in 2010. I like Tebow. However, the Broncos decision to trade up for him (losing about 30% value according to the trusty trade value chart) and take him over Jimmy Clausen, was just stupid. How many other teams had Tebow over Clausen? 2? 3?

And why was Tebow even necessary given they have Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn. Tebow has been fun to watch this year in limited roles, but with Orton under contract until 2012 and playing as well as he is, Tebow doesn’t seem to have much of a future unless McDaniels does something stupid like get rid of Orton.

Then of course there’s exile of Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. These were their two best receivers in 2009. They gave them up in the offseason for 2 2^nd rounders and a 5^th rounder. Now of course, I’m going to be fair and mention that the Broncos replaced Marshall with Brandon Lloyd, who they essentially found in the trash can and turned into the league leader in receiving yards.

Add in the fact that the Broncos team McDaniels inherited was one of the worst run stopping teams in league history and that he hasn’t drafted a single defensive lineman in his time there and that’s why they are 3-7 now. Ah, the saga of Josh McDaniels. As a Patriots fan, I love it.

24. San Francisco 49ers 3-7

The previously 3-6 49ers just got shutout at home. And they still have a good chance to win the division. Everyone else in the NFC West lost and the 49ers still have 4 games against their weak division left with 6 to go, 2 games back. This division is still well in reach. Of course Troy Smith will have to play like he did weeks 8 and 10 and not week 11, but they’re still very much alive.

23. Cleveland Browns 3-7

The sports gods hate Cleveland. This city hasn’t won a championship in years. They’ve lost LeBron James. They lost the 2007 ALCS after leading 3-1. And now this year is absolutely painful for Browns fans. Their team is actually good, yet they’re 3-7 because they’ve played only 1 sub .500 team and last week they lost an easily winnable game to 6-4 Jacksonville on a late big run by MJD.

Redemption is coming though. Their next 4 are against Carolina, Miami, Buffalo, and Cincinnati, four easily winnable games. The bad news, Colt McCoy’s in a walking boot with a sprained ankle.

22. Houston Texans 4-6

The sports gods may hate the entire city of Cleveland, but I think they hate the Texans even more. In the last 2 years, they’ve lost 8 games (out of 13 losses) by a touchdown or less, including 4 last year because they were stuffed on the goal line, fumbled on the goal line, or missed a field goal.

Two years ago, they blew a 17 point lead against the Colts with less than 4 minutes left. Now, after mounting a nice 16 point comeback against the Jets, they lost on a late Jets drive in which they] Jets drove 70+ yards in less than a minute with no timeouts.

Obviously their terrible pass defense is mostly to blame, but this is also a team that doesn’t have a touchdown in the last 2 minutes of a half this season. I don’t think Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub are capable of leading a successful late drive to win and since I don’t think you can get rid of Schaub, Kubiak’s got to go. He’s had his chance and he hasn’t done anything with it.

21. St. Louis Rams 4-6

Last week I was wondering if this team could make the playoffs without winning a road game and I concluded they could. Well, unfortunately, that is no longer the case. If they don’t win a road game from here on out, after losing at home to the Falcons, they’re a 6 win team and even in the terrible NFC West, that’s not going to be enough.

No worries though. They’ll just have to win in Denver, Arizona, Seattle, or New Orleans. I think they can win in Arizona easily and possibly in Denver. This team played well against Atlanta, a game that was closer that the score made it look, and losing to Atlanta, a 8-2 team with 10 days to prepare, is not something to be ashamed of, especially when Sam Bradford sets the rookie record for attempts without an interception, 169, before throwing one late.

20. Miami Dolphins 5-5

Their offensive performance with Tyler Thigpen against the Bears was one of the worst I had ever seen. Luckily I didn’t have to see it for very long. Their offense was only on the field 22 minutes. They didn’t have anything close to a strong touchdown drive.

Now, granted, they were on their 3^rd string center, their 3^rd string quarterback, their 2^nd string right tackle, their left tackle had a bad shoulder, and their top receiver Brandon Marshall got hurt. But they need Chad Henne back if they have any chance at a plus .500 record and when you need Henne to get you to where you want to go, you’re in trouble. Remember, Henne wasn’t great himself.

19. Oakland Raiders 5-5

Ah, the Oakland stinker. It’s about time. That game wasn’t even as close as the 35-3 score made it look. The Steelers had a pick six wiped away by a stupid penalty and the Steelers actually committed 163 yards worth of penalties. Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski aren’t cutting it at quarterback which means, once again, the Raiders need an upgrade at quarterback this offseason.

Also, anyone else think the fact that Seymour only got a 25K fine for slapping Big Ben is a little fishy? I mean Chad Ochocinco gets 20K for endzone celebrations. Seymour gets 5K more for hitting someone, especially a quarterback, at a time when the NFL is cracking down on player safety, especially quarterback safety.

Very fishy considering that Big Ben and the commish aren’t exactly buddy buddies. I don’t want to make it sound like I think there’s some sort of conspiracy here, but I think there’s some sort of conspiracy here. I really hope the dictator, er… commish doesn’t fine me for writing this.

18. Kansas City Chiefs 6-4

Matt Cassel is putting up good numbers this year. 60% completion, 7.1 YPA, 18 touchdowns to 4 picks, but those numbers are so deceiving. He’s been helped out by a great running game and a ridiculously easily schedule.

He’s still not a quarterback who can lead a team back from behind or beat a team that takes away his running game. Fortunately he hasn’t run into a lot of those teams yet this year so he’s making himself look amazing and worthy of being kept into next year at an expensive rate, when, in fact, he isn’t and he shouldn’t be.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-4

Yet another team that’s worse than their record would show, the Jaguars somehow beat the Browns, after committing 6 turnovers, on a crazy screen play to MJD which went for 75 yards to set up the game winning score. This is one week after winning on a 50 yard Hail Mary and in the same season as beating a team on a 59 yard field goal. Their other three wins, Denver, Buffalo, and the Wade Phillips Cowboys. Their 4 losses were by a combined 99 points.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks 5-5

The Seahawks continue to struggle on the road, losing by 15 in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans. They are 5-17 in their last 22 on the road. However, they still remain the favorites in the NFC West.

I see them as the most complete team in that division, with Matt Hasselbeck playing well of late, getting his left tackle Russell Okung back and going for 300+ in his last two games. Okung seems good going forward, a very good sign for this team. Also key, 4 of their last 6 are at home and they have two more games against lowly division opponents.

15. Washington Redskins 5-5

The Redskins proved last week that they aren’t as bad as the Eagles made them look. Michael Vick can make a lot of people look worse than they are, especially a defense that’s not that athletic as obviously is the case with the Redskins’ defense.

However, they are a resilient well coached team, that actually hung with the Eagles late. Take away the 28-0 run the Eagles entered the game on, that would have been a 31-28 game. Now they beat a good (but suddenly imploding) Titans team. This team is still a very underrated team.

14. Tennessee Titans 5-5

Vince Young has played his last game for the Titans. He was placed on IR needing thumb surgery following the Titans overtime loss to the Redskins, a game in which Young got hurt, wanted to go back into the game, allegedly never told Jeff Fisher he wanted to go back into the game, then threw a hissy fit and stormed out of the stadium during their post-game locker room talk and didn’t talk to the press.

 I actually think both sides are equally at fault here. Jeff Fisher and Vince Young simply can’t co-exist. They were never a good fit as coach and quarterback. It wasn’t even Fisher’s idea to draft him. He was under a ton of pressure from Bud Adams to take Young and then a ton of pressure to start him. Young had won games for the Titans at a very impressive rate, but Fisher has never really seemed to want Young on his team.

Of course Young never really did anything to make the situation better. I hope the Titans cut/trade Young this offseason and he gets a chance to start somewhere where he’ll be wanted (Oakland?) and also that Jeff Fisher gets his guy at quarterback, someone he truly feels is his guy and not someone Bud Adams forced him to have.

13. Chicago Bears 7-3

Still not sold. With the way the Dolphins were playing last week, that should have been a lot more than a 16 point win for the Bears. Their offense did them no favors. Taking a look at their wins, they beat the Lions on a BS call, the Wade Phillips Cowboys, the Packers who shoot themselves in the foot to the tune of 18 penalties, the Panthers, the Bills, the Vikings, and now the self destructing Dolphins.

It seems they either just beat bad teams or good teams on a night when the team is self destructing, and even in those games it’s not a convincing win and the Bears offense struggles for continuity. Their offense has yet to go over 27 points in a game this year.

Now, they have a good opportunity to make a statement this week with Philadelphia. If they win that game, this team is for real, but until then, I’m not sold.

12. New York Giants 6-4

Why do Tom Coughlin teams always self destruct in the 2^nd half? They’re like the anti-Chargers, can never finish out a season well. The turnovers that have plagued them all season long have become a major issue in their last 2 losses, both of them divisional losses.

They actually kept Mike Vick in check last week, but lost anyway because of 6 turnovers. And just two weeks ago, this looked like the team to beat in the NFC. I wasn’t buying it then and I’m still not buying it now. They do everything well, except the important things, limit big plays and with the turnover battle.

11. Baltimore Ravens 7-3

Put me on the list of people who don’t think this team can win the Super Bowl. I’m not seeing it. They shoot themselves in the foot for a living. That game against Brian St. Pierre and the Panthers was close until St. Pierre threw two TAINTs.

Joe Flacco has probably become one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, but that defense is what it used to be at all. Even Ray Lewis looks a step slower. This run defense, which once didn’t allow 100 yard rusher for about 2 seasons, is 18^th in the league and just gave up 120 yards to Mike Goodson, the Carolina Panthers’ former 4^th string running back.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-3

This is a team that gets better every week. This isn’t the same team that lost by a combined 50 to the Saints and Steelers. This team might even be better than the one who hung within a touchdown of Atlanta in the Georgia Dome.

I know I had them going into San Fran and winning, but to travel three time zones, go into a tough place to play especially for a young team and beat a team that had the momentum by 21 is very, very impressive.

The reasons for their improvement, the continued growth of Josh Freeman at rookie, Mike Williams at receiver, and the emergence of LeGarrette Blount at running back. They may be the 3^rd best team in the NFC South right now, but there’s no shame in that with the way that division (Carolina excluded) is playing. I like the Bucs to make the playoffs.

9. San Diego Chargers 5-5

Every year, this team has their backs up against it and every year they respond by going on an amazing run. They’ve now won 3 straight and have the only game against a team that can realistically beat them next week, the Indianapolis Colts.

They get both Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson back to a passing attack that’s one of if not the best in the NFL and they’ve had Indy’s number for years. Of course this won’t really matter if they choke in January again, but with Philip Rivers playing the best ball of his career, that might not happen this year.

8. Indianapolis Colts 6-4

I have to give Peyton Manning credit. Even when the Pats had a 31-14 lead, I, as a Pats fan, didn’t feel safe. When he marched downfield and scored a touchdown, my thoughts were, this better not happen again (Pats blew a 31-14 lead last year too, a loss that, in my opinion, changed the entire outlook of their season).

When the Colts forced a 3 and out and Manning had another score, my thoughts were, it’s happening again. When the Colts forced their 2^nd straight 3 and out, I could barely sit up straight I was so nervous. He didn’t win, but he scared the crap out of me and I’m assuming numerous other Patriots fans in the world.

7. New York Jets 8-2

I’m starting to think that this team’s ability to win close games is more skill than luck. Mark Sanchez is a beast in the two minute. Might as well call him two minute Mark. He can be mediocre the entire game and then come alive in the last two minutes of the game to win.

I don’t like the fact that they haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4, particularly since they don’t have a win over a .500+ team in that stretch, and I’m still going to pick them to fall flat on their faces in Foxboro in two weeks, but I’m becoming a believer. This could easily be the 2^nd best team in the AFC.

6. Green Bay Packers 7-3

The Packers are finally playing like the team I thought they’d be to start the season, thanks to an emotional win over the Vikings week 7 and the improved health of their defense. They’ve won their last 3 by a combined 86-10 and now face their toughest test yet, winning in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons where the Falcons have yet to lose this season and where Matt Ryan has only lost once in his career. The Falcons may also be the best team in the NFC right now.

5. New Orleans Saints 7-3

Just like the Packers, another talented team that is finally getting in rhythm and getting healthy. Just like with the Packers, the Saints have been playing amazing football since their defining win, when they beat the Steelers in the Superdome. Since that game, they’ve won two straight by a combined score of 68-22 and are really clicking on offense, solving their red zone problems.

We all know how good this team can be at full strength. Super Bowl Champion good, which is why I have them one spot higher than Green Bay. Like Green Bay, their toughest remaining test is Atlanta in Atlanta, likely for the division, but I can definitely see this team finishing at 12-4 and being a very tough first round opponent either at home or on the road in somewhere like Seattle.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3

They may be injury riddled, especially in the trenches, one of the most important parts of a team, but don’t try to tell them that. More important, don’t try to tell the Raiders that. It would make that 35-3 defeat look even worse for them.

The Steelers get another easy one this week against the Bills before they have the Ravens in Baltimore week 13 and the Jets in Pittsburgh week 15. The Patriots, assuming they beat the Jets, will have locked up the top spot in the AFC (beating the Ravens, Steelers, Colts, and splitting with the Jets), but the Steelers can still take the 2^nd spot if they split with the Ravens and beat the Jets. They could, at the same time, lose to the Ravens and lose the division and have to go on the road to start the playoffs.

3. Philadelphia Eagles 7-3

The Giants contained Michael Vick. The Eagles still won. I’m still hoping someone figures out how to beat this team before the Pats have to play them in the Super Bowl. They have the Bears this week who many agree, with their athletic defense, have the best shot at beating Vick and company. Now if only the Bears could do something about Jay Cutler and that line. The Eagles fierce pass rush might be enough to push this team to 8-3 even if Vick is stopped.

2. Atlanta Falcons 8-2

I bring up the Falcons home prowess and their standing as the team with the #1 record in the NFC, thus getting home field, as the reasons why the Falcons are going to the Super Bowl. The Falcons will have to prove that this week against a team they may face in the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are streaking, outscoring their last 3 by a combined 85-10.

1. New England Patriots 8-2

The Pats were given a scare by the Colts last week, but prevailed, giving Tom Brady 25 straight home regular season victories. A lot of people are still questioning their defense, but I’m a believer. They give up a lot of yards, but they’re good in the red zone, they limit points, and they force turnovers. They rank 30^th in yards, but 23th in points allowed, and they have 13 interceptions, good for 8^th in the NFL. They’ve also beaten the Colts and the Steelers despite the fact that they don’t have an amazing defense.

Couple that defense with an offense that’s every bit the Patriots offenses of old, the best receivers is the open one, limit penalties, sacks, turnovers, and score. They rank 1^st in points despite ranking 17^th in yards. They only have 14 sacks allowed, 3^rd best in the NFL. They only have 9 turnovers, 2^nd best in the NFL behind Kansas City.

 If they get home field, they’re going to be tough to stop. Of course that if is very important. If they don’t get home field they could be in trouble and if they lose to the Jets, that probably means they’ll lose the division and have to go on the road in the first round (unless the Jets choke and give the Pats control of the division). That game week 13 is going to be huge.

 

WR Nate Burleson- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 27.1%

Doesn’t seem to matter who the quarterback is. Since he returned from his injury, Burleson has 35 catches for 410 yards and 4 scores in 6 games. He’s got a track record as a proven veteran receiver as well.

WR Danny Amendola- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 26.5%

Amendola is a PPR god, 6th in the league with 60 receptions. He doesn’t have a high YPC,  a mere 8.2, for 493 total yards and 3 scores, but he catches balls and his yardage isn’t terrible in non-PPR leagues either. 

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 15.3%

He continues to produce and continues to be available in a lot of leagues, even after his amazing Hail Mary catch. Thomas has 46 catches for 572 yards and 3 scores on the season and is at least a good WR4 and probably a WR3 weekly in PPR leagues.

RB Mike Goodson- Carolina

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.7%

2 starts, 2 100 yard games, the only 2 100 yard games by Carolina running backs this season. With so many injuries in front on him, the former 4^th string back could be the starter or at least a big part of the offense down the stretch. He managed 120 yards against Baltimore’s tough run defense. He’s a good one.

RB Chris Ivory- New Orleans

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.9%

With Pierre Thomas likely to miss a few more weeks, Ivory could remain fantasy valuable for a few more weeks, even with Reggie Bush coming back. Ivory had 95 yards on 20 carries and a score last week against Seattle and has 494 total yards and a touchdown on the year.

TE Brandon Pettigrew- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 35.3%

In 7 Hill starts, Pettigrew has 43 catches for 435 yards and a score, and it looks like Hill will be the starter for the rest of the season with Stafford hurt. Pettigrew leads the league in receptions by a tight end with 50 (tied with Jason Witten)

RB Keiland Williams- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.2%

With Clinton Portis getting hurt again and Ryan Torain still out indefinitely, Williams has value in fantasy as he has the chance to start at running back down the stretch for the Redskins. In his last 2 games, he has 35 rushes for 156 yards and 2 scores, as well as 10 catches for 77 yards.

WR James Jones- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.0%

Donald Driver doesn’t seem like himself with his bad thigh injury. Even with Driver playing, Jones had 3 catches for 51 yards and a score against Minnesota and had 8 catches for 123 yards and a score week 9 with Driver out of the lineup. He also had a 4 catch 107 yard game earlier this season with Driver in the lineup. With Driver iffy down the stretch, Jones has value in Green Bay’s explosive offense.

 

QB Jon Kitna- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.8%

He is 100 for 168 for 1223 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 picks this season and more importantly 31 for 46 for 473 yards, 6 touchdowns, and a pick in two games under Jason Garrett.

QB Matt Hasselbeck- Seattle

Percent owned (ESPN): 14.2%

Hasselbeck has 688 passing yards and 2 scores in his last 2 and is really playing better thanks to improved pass protection.

QB Shaun Hill- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.5%

He’s yet to throw for less than 227 yards in a full game and is 156 for 258 for 1632 yards, 10 picks, and 8 picks this year.

WR Brian Hartline- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

Lost in Miami’s terrible game against Chicago was Hartline’s 5 catches for 70 yards. He now has 28 catches for 407 yards in his last 6, with 4 or more catches in each of them and 14 catches for 253 yards in his last 3. Also, if Brandon Marshall misses any time, Hartline becomes the #1 guy and has proven himself under multiple starting quarterbacks.

WR Blair White- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.6%

After Austin Collie got hurt, White caught 5 balls for 42 yards and 2 scores. Collie could miss next week’s game, which means White could be a fantasy factor.

RB Maurice Morris- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.6%

Morris received 11 carries against Detroit with Best hurting and could get more action down the stretch. He was a decent fantasy option down the stretch last year with Kevin Smith hurt and could be again this year.

RB Dmitri Nance- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.0%

I don’t know who the hell this guy is, but he led the Packers in rushing against the Vikings and received 12 carries. He could be a factor down the stretch as a running back for the Packers, so it might be a good idea to take a flier on him in deep leagues.

TE Evan Moore- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Colt McCoy loves throwing to his tight ends and with Ben Watson getting hurt early, the talented Moore had 3 catches for 69 yards against Jacksonville. If Watson misses any time, Moore could be a startable tight end.

 

Last week overall: 13-3

Last week ATS: 10-5-1 (+320/+7%)

Overall picks: 104-56 (.650)

ATS Picks: 82-72-6 (+$1950)

Lock picks: 7-4

Upset picks: 17-19

Sports Betting FAQ 

Week 11 Recap: Week 11 was kind of the anti-week 10. Week 10 I made some money in spite of a losing record. I went 6-8 making 360 dollars in the process, of 9% of my total bet amount. Week 11 I made money as well, 320 dollars, 7% of my total bet amount. However, looking at my 10-5-1 record, I should have made more. What went wrong? Well, I whiffed on my two highest bets, Seattle +12 (they lost by 15) and Arizona +9 (I don’t want to talk about it). Also, the Colts came back from a 17 point deficit to force a backdoor push at +3 (but, I’m a Pats fan and they won so I can’t complain). Excluding those three just mentioned, I was 10-3 on the week, going 4-2 with my 3 unit picks. My only other miss was Detroit +6.5 over Dallas for 2. That one was close until the 4^th quarter when the Cowboys pulled away with a late kickoff return TD. In straight up picks, I went 13-3, my best week of the season and my best week in recent memory, and I finally nailed my lock pick after dropping 3 straight, as the Ravens destroyed the Panthers on the strength of 2 TAINTs.

New England 31 Detroit Lions 13 Lock Pick

Spread: New England -6.5

Pick against spread: New England 4 units (+400)

I know I always bring up that stat that home teams are 24-11 on Thursday Night at home. However, it’s different this week. No, I’m not changing my mind because Dolphins bombed at home last week missing like half of their lineup. That’s one game. However, the Lions are the exception to this rule. Lions playing on Thanksgiving is a tradition, but so is the Lions losing on Thanksgiving.

Since 2001, they’ve hosted 9 home Thanksgiving games and won one of them (2003). Since 2003, they’ve lost their last 7 Thanksgiving home games by an average of 24.3 points. They can’t even win on Thanksgiving when they have a winning record (as was the case in 2007). They’re one of only 3 teams to lose a home Thursday game with a winning record since 2006. Also, there is no one I trust more to prepare for a short week than Belicheck/Brady. They’ve only had 1 Thursday Night Game in the Brady/Belicheck era, but they won it, for what that counts.

Also, I think we’re getting line value with the Pats. The Lions are coming off their biggest loss of the year, to a previously 2 win team. They also lost the week before to the Bills. They’ve mailed it in with Stafford hurt yet again. They’re not the backdoor cover machines they were in Hill’s first stint as starter. They’re definitely more than 6.5 points worse than the 8-2 Patriots, and I expect the final score to reflect that at the end of the day.

New Orleans 35 Dallas 27

Spread: New Orleans -3.5

Pick against spread: New Orleans 2 units (-220)

Yes, the Cowboys do have a Thanksgiving home game and the Saints have to travel on short rest. Yes, only 3 teams with winning record have lost at home on a Thursday Night since 2006, but the Cowboys don’t have a winning record. I think the Jason Garrett Cowboys can win this one at home, but at the same time I love getting to take Brees against this atrocious Cowboys defense and secondary (with Phillips and with Garrett) over Jon Kitna +3.5.

Also, the Saints are at full strength now, getting key defensive players back and likely getting Bush back. They’ve won their last 2 with ease and I like getting them in a fairly even line here for 2 units and only 2 because the Cowboys are playing well and at home on a Thursday Night.

New York Jets 31 Cincinnati Bengals 14

Spread: NY Jets -9

Pick against spread: NY Jets 2 units (+200)

Logic says not to take the Jets big here. They haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4. However, I’m going to take them -9 for multiple units. It’s not a big play, but I love the Jets this week to finally win by more than 9.

First of all, the Jets dominated this matchup twice last year. The Bengals are worse than they were last year by a lot and seemed to have mailed it in. The Bills game was clear evidence of that. The Jets, meanwhile, have gotten a lot better since those two games. Mark Sanchez has become a legitimate franchise quarterback and this passing game is now as deadly, if not deadlier than their running game. They can tear apart a Cincy secondary that’s missing two key starters.

Also, they’re a home team on Thursday Night and on Thanksgiving, normally a good sign a team, especially a good team like the Jets, is going to dominate. I would go 3+ units, even against a big line here, but because of the fact that the Jets haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4 and the fact that the Bengals are good at back door covers, I’m going with the Jets for only two.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Green Bay Packers 28

Spread: Atlanta -1.5

Pick against spread: Atlanta 2 units (+200)

The Packers have won their last 2 by combined scores of 76-10, getting two coaches fired in the process (Wade and Chilly). However, Matt Ryan has lost once at home in his career. I’ve stuck with that all year and it’s won me big so I’m going with it again here.

The Packers aren’t playing the Cowboys or Vikings here. They’re playing arguably the best team in the NFC in a place where they rarely lose. I’m taking the Falcons against an even line bet, but only putting two units on it because the Packers are a very complete team as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Buffalo Bills 12

Spread: -6 Pittsburgh

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 4 units (-440)

I think we’re getting very good line value here with the Steelers. Two weeks ago, the Bills would have been -10 at least here. Two weeks later they’re -6 and  what have they done, except beat 2 teams that have won a combined 4 games?

Ryan Fiztpatrick hasn’t seen anything like the Steelers’ defense and they eat weak armed quarterbacks like him up. The Steelers offense is stuttering a bit now with a banged up offensive line, but the Bills can’t pass rush and Rashard Mendenhall could be such a factor against a terrible Buffalo run defense that the Bills can’t blitz at all, especially if they’re trailing big. The Steelers destroyed the Raiders last week and I expect them to do the same this week.

 

Carolina Panthers 17 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -10 Cleveland

Pick against spread: Carolina 5 units (+500)

Jake Delhomme is getting all the snaps in practice for the Browns. The Panthers are the Panthers. Betting on Jake Delhomme and betting on the Panthers are normally both good ways to lose money. The catch, the line is 10 points. 10 points! In favor of Delhomme! Delhomme has trouble scoring 10 points. I’d say there’s a 50-50 chance that Delhomme doesn’t even score 10 points.

This line was just posted today and I don’t know if Vegas realizes that McCoy likely isn’t going to be starting in this one, but get this line while you can. Jake Delhomme -10 vs. anyone. It’s a gamblers dream. Jimmy Clausen will be back for Carolina, which is better than Brian St. Pierre. This only reason this isn’t a 6+ unit pick is because, well it’s the Panthers.

If that’s not enough, the Browns even with Colt McCoy, are probably a 6 win or worse team. To win 7 games, they’d be have go 4-2. Teams that go 6-10 or worse are 19-49 as 6+ point favorites since 2002. The Browns are 10 point favorites missing their starting quarterback. The Browns are also double digit favorites coming off of a loss. Since 2002, teams are 34-61 as 10+ point favorites coming off of a loss. Also, it’s Jake Delhomme. Just saying.

Because I expect this line to go down once Vegas realizes its Delhomme, here’s my breakdown.

Browns -9+ 5 units Panthers

Browns -6-8 4 units Panthers

Browns -4-5 3 units Panthers

Browns -1-3 2 units Panthers

Even line 1 unit Panthers

Panthers favored 1 unit Browns 

But get it while you can!!! 

New York Giants 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Spread: NY Giants -7.5

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 1 unit (+100)

I give up betting on Jacksonville’s games. I’m 1-9 against the spread in their games this year. Instead I’m just going with the points here for 1 unit. Also, the Giants are playing badly and are known for second half slumps, but that might be too much analysis for my own good. Points for 1 unit it is. I considered two because of the huge line and the Giants tendency to slump in the 2^nd half, but I’m not falling for it again.

Minnesota Vikings 31 Washington Redskins 28 Upset Pick

Spread: -1.5 Washington

Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units (+200)

Call me crazy, but after seeing the culture change in Dallas under Jason Garrett, I think there could be one in Minnesota under Leslie Frazier. Brad Childress was someone the players weren’t responding to, someone the players didn’t like. This is still a talented team, just like Dallas, and they have the weapons to exploits the Redskins terrible defense.

I think Favre finally has a good game, helped by Adrian Peterson against the Redskins lowly ground defense and the Vikings in a close upset. Favre also gets Sidney Rice another game healthy. The Redskins rank 23^rd against the pass and dead last against the run.

Houston Texans 24 Tennessee Titans 21

Spread: -6.5 Houston

Pick against spread: Tennessee 1 unit (-110)

This is a tough one. Rusty Smith is a bad quarterback, as he showed late against Washington, though he could be better with a week of practice with the first time. At the time same, the Texans could over look the Titans for that and the Texans have lost 4 straight overall and 6 straight against the spread. That doesn’t make them a good bet favored by a touchdown.

The Titans can still do some things defensively and they still have Chris Johnson and Randy Moss. The Texans might key in on Johnson with Young out and finally leave Moss open downfield against a terrible Texans secondary. However, Rusty Smith might not have the arm strength to hit him deep and Moss might not even care right now on a 5-5 team without its starting quarterback.

However, the Texans could also key in on Moss and let Johnson run free on them.  Betting a team starting a backup, especially a talented one, is normally a good bet, but that’s how I lost with Miami and Dallas in recent weeks. When in doubt, go with the points for 1 unit.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units (-440)

The Chiefs continue to be overrated by Vegas. They’ve beaten the early season Chargers, the Seneca Wallace Browns, the 49ers, the Jags, the Bills and the Cardinals. The Seahawks are a legitimately good team with Hasselbeck and Okung protecting him. They didn’t look it in the Superdome thanks to penalties, but this is a much better team at home.

Matt Cassel can’t win games where he has to play catch up or where the opposing defense can take away his ground game. Seattle can at least make them play catch up, especially at home.

Oakland Raiders 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Spread: Oakland -1

Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit (-110)

Chad Henne is expected to start in this one, but his first game is a tough test. He has to go into Oakland. Oakland is a tough place to place and it’s a 3 time zone road game, which is always a bad spot. He will be missing Brandon Marshall and his offensive line is still awfully banged up, facing one of the best pass rushes in the league.

Also, teams tend to slack off once their quarterback returns from an injury. This could happen especially this week because Miami likely won’t take Oakland seriously coming off that horrible loss to the Steelers. Plus, they are the Raiders. The Dolphins, meanwhile, looked absolutely terrible last week 

St. Louis Rams 28 Denver Broncos 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -4 Denver

Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (+500)

The Rams have yet to win on the road and Denver can be a very tough place to play, but I’m going with the Rams just because I think we’re getting points with the better team. I’m not 100% percent that Bradford and the Rams will get their first road win this year in this game, but I have 4 points to work with and Denver is falling apart right now.

The Rams may not have won on the road this year, but 3 of those losses were by 3 or fewer and this is a 4 point spread and a worse team than teams like Oakland, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay, the three they’ve lost to on the road by less than 3.

The Chargers destroyed the Broncos’ pass offense with their blitz and amazing pass rush and the Rams can do exactly the same thing. The Broncos also are coming off a deflating loss and will probably feel like their season is over. Even if they don’t, teams coming of MNF losses of 17 or more are 16-32 ATS since 1999.

I feel very confident taking the Rams for 5 because they’ve only lost on the road by 4 or more once this year, because the Broncos should not be favored by 4, because the Rams defense matches up well with Denver’s offense, and because the Broncos might not give this their all after an embarrassing loss that ended their season.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

Spread: -9 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit (+100)

I don’t know why Tampa isn’t getting any love. They’re 7-3 and coming off an impressive win in San Francisco, a tough place for a young quarterback to play. They’re getting better every week and they’re not that same team that lost by a combined 50 to the Steelers and Saints.

They hung within a touchdown of Atlanta in Atlanta a few weeks ago and then there was that impressive win last week. Josh Freeman is getting better as the year has gone on and so is Mike Williams. Also the emergence of LeGarrette Blount has helped. I’d say, talent wise, Tampa Bay is significantly less than 9 points worse than Baltimore.

The Ravens also shoot themselves in the foot a lot. They haven’t done it quite as much this year, but they did lose to Cincinnati, barely beat the Seneca Wallace Browns, and needed overtime to beat the winless Bills. The Bengals are terrible and the Browns and Bills were teams they were heavily favored over and they didn’t cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 13

Spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 3 units (-330)

Chicago might have the defense that can stop Michael Vick, simply because their defense is one of the most athletic in the NFL. However, with the way Vick is playing, there’s no way I bet Cutler +3.5 over him. The Bears continue to be worse than their record suggests. The way the Dolphins were playing last week, they should have crushed the Dolphins.

I like their defense, not their offense, and you need both to beat the Eagles the way they’re playing right now, as the Giants showed last week. The Giants athletic defense limited Vick, but their suddenly dysfunctional offense couldn’t do anything to take advantage of that.

San Diego Chargers 35 Indianapolis Colts 31 Upset Pick

Spread: Indianapolis -3

Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units (+300)

I’m going with the Chargers here and yes it’s because the Chargers have owned Peyton Manning in recent years. No one plays Peyton Manning tougher than these Chargers and for the first time in this matchup, the Chargers signal caller is someone who I think is playing as well, if not better than Peyton Manning. You heard Jon Gruden suck his cock all Monday Night, this kid is talented.

Plus, we’re getting the Chargers as underdogs. Rivers has only lost 4 career games as an underdog, the same amount as Peyton Manning. As big time MNF losers struggle in their next game, big time MNF winners do really well in their next game. Teams that win on MNF by 17+ are 36-21 ATS since 1999. I like the Chargers with that stat against a Colts team that could be flat off of a heartbreaking loss to the Pats.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 12 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Arizona

Pick against spread: San Francisco 4 units (+400)

I don’t understand why this is a Monday Night Football game. Who thought this was a good idea? Maybe a lot of people had the 49ers as a 9 or 10 win team, but the Kurt Warner-less Cardinals? How did they not foresee them being terrible. 

That’s not the only thing I don’t understand. I don’t understand why this is an even matchup. The Cardinals are terrible. They can’t do anything right. Their point differential of -103 is 2^nd worst in the league to Carolina. Their combined quarterback rating is 2^nd worst in the league to Carolina. They can’t run the ball and they can’t stop anyone.

They do have 3 wins but one was by 4 in Sam Bradford’s NFL debut, one was by 1 to the Oakland when the Raiders missed a game winning chip shot field goal, and the other was by 10 over New Orleans. In only one of those wins can you say, the Cardinals outplayed the other team and deserved to win and that was that perfect storm game against New Orleans.

The 49ers will be eager to prove themselves after a home shutout. Teams normally are going 19-9 ATS since 2002 after a home shutout in their next game. I love San Francisco to stomp the Cardinals here.

 

 

RB Kevin Smith (Detroit)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Whoa! Where did this come from? After not doing anything since his rookie year and not being on the team a few weeks ago, Smith was the lead back for Detroit against Carolina with Jahvid Best out once again. The Lions appear to have found their substitute for Best, who isn’t expected back anytime soon. Smith rushed for 140 yards and 2 scores on 16 carries and 4 catches for 61 yards another score last week against Carolina.

RB Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 15.3%

Ogbonnaya has actually looked good in his last two, rushing for 90 yards on 19 carries last week and then 115 yards and a score on 21 carries this week. Montario Hardesty and Peyton Hillis can’t stay healthy so Ogbo might have some value going forward.

 

RB Toby Gerhart (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.8%

Adrian Peterson is likely going to miss at least one game with a high ankle sprain. Former Heisman runner up Toby Gerhart would get the start in his absence so he’s rosterable.

QB Caleb Hanie (Chicago)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Jay Cutler is done for the season, at least the regular season. Hanie looked good in the playoffs last year. There might be some value with him going forward.

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.7%

Little once again led the Browns in receiving. He might not be that great yet, but he’s got upside and he’s the best Colt McCoy’s got.

 

Week 12 Pickups 

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (8)  9 – 0    next vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Packers continue to be the dominant team in the NFL behind MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers, who is playing at a higher level than anyone including Tom Brady’s record setting season (130.7 QB Rating  according to ESPN.com). 

(2)  2. San Francisco 49ers  8 – 1   next vs Arizona Cardinals

Top points defense in football, and averaging 25.9 PPG offensively. Harbaugh has made this team a hard-nosed playoff.  The number one rush defense had little challenge again against the Giants.  One more easy week, then they host the Steelers.

(4)  3. Pittsburgh Steelers  7 – 3   next bye

Road win over Cincy keeps Steelers in division hunt.  Probably the most consistent team in the AFC.  They get this week to get a well needed rest, the aging Steelers couldn’t of asked for better timing for a bye week. 

(5)  4. New Orleans Saints  7 – 3   next bye

Bye week to get them rested for a stretch run that includes 4 outta 5 teams over .500, Tampa Bay may have fallen back a bit, but Atlanta is still in the hunt, but its a division that New Orleans now controls after that huge win, They will most certainly use this week off to go buy Mr. Smith of Atlanta a nice gift, seeming he gave them one on Sunday.

(8)  5. New England Patriots  6 – 3  next vs Kansas City Chiefs

Tom Brady threw for 3 touchdowns despite facing the “top corner” in the NFL. Took advantage of his tight end, Rob Gronkowski, for 2 touchdowns, in dismantling the Jets, 37-16.  Still looking for the defense to show up this season.  Running out of time, if they don’t find it by week 17, they won’t find it in the playoffs.

(3)  6. Baltimore Ravens  6 – 3   next vs Cincinnati Bengals

Their schedule doesn’t favor them well (even though they play the Browns twice) but that sweep of Pittsburgh is a lot bigger then you think…Because it might decide the division. But the loss in Seattle was a killer…..A must bounce back game against Cincy this week who also, is right in the thick of things in the AFC North.

(9)  7. Chicago Bears  6 – 3   next vs San Diego Chargers

 Beat a good team in Detroit this week, and have steadily improved since Martz adjusted to 3 and 5 step drops as well as a heavy dose at Matt Forte, who should start seeing MVP considerations.  Defense has stepped up and are looking like the Bears we remember.

(10)  8. Houston Texans  7 – 3   next bye

 I know I shouldn’t put the Schaub injury as a decider of where they go in the rankings but lets face it…..Its over in Houston, Kubiak can’t catch a break and a first round bounce is the best they can ask for. The question should now be asked. Can they hold a 2 game lead with 6 games left, 4 tough match ups down the stretch?  The AFC South might become the most exciting division race now because CJ is turning it up in Tennessee and oh, why is that Tennessee on the schedule visiting Houston on the final week of the season???  Hmmmmm…..Might come down to that, oh and the right arm of Matt Leinhart. Good luck, I guess everyone deserves second chances…

(7)  9. New York Giants  6 – 3   next vs Philadelphia Eagles

Really good football team, led by Eli Manning, a ferocious pass rush, and a shutdown corner in Corey Webster.  Lost a close game to a really good team and defense this week.  It’s about time for their annual self-destruction, let’s see if Eli crumbles like usual or if he can finally rise above.

(6)  10. Detroit Lions  6 – 3   next vs Carolina Panthers

That was a bad game………….Just a bad game….Funny how quick things can change in 1 month in the NFL.  The immaturity and frustrations are really starting to take this team over.  5-0 the first 5 games and 1-3 since. 

(NR)  11. Dallas Cowboys  5 – 4   next at Washington Redskins

 We expect the Cowboys to inevitably fall into Aurora Snowmo Choke Mode. But man, they looked great against the Bills.   The Cowboys finally played up to their potential, physically dominating the Buffalo Bills, not turning the ball over and Demarco Murray is really allowing the offense to play up to its talent.

(12)  12. Cincinnati Bengals  6 – 3   next at Baltimore Ravens

Cam Newton gets a lot of rep for what he’s done this year. But my offensive rookie of the year is the Red Rifle baby, ride that Andy Dalton!  Remember when the Bengals were clear cut crap team at the beginning of the year? So much for that, out with the old(Bad records, poor defense, Carson Palmer and some guy who changes his last name) and in with the new(AJ Green, Andy Dalton, and company) and BAM, you got yourself the Bengals.

(NR)  13. New York Jets  5 – 4   next  at Denver Broncos

Wild Card or bust!!!!  Brady made the Jets look silly at home.  As long as Bill Belichick is in charge, the Jets will never get this division.  So much for a guarantee and at this point, there might not be any playoffs.

(13)  14. Atlanta Falcons  5 – 4   next vs Tennessee Titans

 Played New Orleans in a close game, and have a ton of weapons on offense that allow them to be explosive at any moment.  Defense needs to step up if they are wanting to make playoffs.  One other piece needs to improve to make playoffs, the decision making made by coach Mike Smith.

(NR)  15. Denver Broncos  4 – 5   next vs New York Jets

This team commits less to the passing game then Kimmy K commits to marriage…HEY OH!!!!  It wasn’t beautiful, but Tebow is getting the job done. 1 Game outta the division and this team isn’t out of a possible division championship, ….Because the AFC West is absolute garbage.

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

 David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Garett Krobot of CJ Sports NFL Talk

 

11/5/11 12:21 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

Vanderbilt at Florida

MLB Chris Marve (Vanderbilt) #13

A mid rounder at linebacker, the 6-0 240 Marve has 61 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 1 sack, 1 pick, and 2 pass deflections as the leader for an underrated Vandy defense. He’s probably a day 2 pick and might have been one had he declared last year, when a lot of people thought he would.

TE Brandon Barden (Vanderbilt) #6

He’s not having the best senior season with 6 catches for 78 yards, but Vanderbilt’s quarterback play hasn’t been good and he did have 34 catches for 425 yards and 3 scores last year. He’s been a contributor in the passing game since his freshman year and he’s an underrated blocker at 6-5 245.

11/5/11 12:30 PM ET

North Carolina at NC State (ESPN 3 Replay)

OLB Zach Brown (North Carolina) #47

Maybe the best linebacker in the country, Brown has at least 2 or 3 plays every game that make you say WOW. I’ve watched 2 of his games and even though I haven’t spotlighted him in either, I’ve definitely taken notice of the amount of impact plays he makes. On the season he has 62 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 5.5 sacks, 2 picks, and 4 pass deflections. He’s a little small at 6-2 230, but he makes up for that with legit 4.4 speed, excellent coverage abilities, and he plays bigger than his size. Against Clemson, he did a good job covering Dwayne Allen, arguably the top tight end prospect in the country.

DT JR Sweezy (NC State) #52

A bit undersized at 6-5 290, but Sweezy would be a good fit as a 3-4 defensive end. Last season, he had 50 tackles, 11.5 for loss, and 5.5 sacks. He missed a good chunk of time with injury this season, but he’s working his way back into the mid rounds with 8 tackles, 2 for loss, and 2 sacks and 4 games this season.

11/12/11 12 PM ET

Nebraska at Penn State

DT Devon Still (Penn State) #71

Quickly rising up in this weak defensive tackle class, Still has 15.5 tackles for loss and 4 sacks and while holding up well against the run at 6-5 310. He fits as a 4-3 defensive tackle and a 3-4 defensive end and could end up going in the top 15 or top 20 when all is said and done in this weak defensive tackle class. He could be the first defensive tackle class off the board over the likes over Jerel Worthy and Brandon Thompson.

OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska) #4

Undersized at 6-1 225, but one of the fastest linebackers in college football, David has 88 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 2 sacks, and 2 picks on the season. He projects as a 4-3 outside linebacker in a cover 2 scheme and could potentially move to safety because of his size and ability in coverage. He projects as a late day 2 prospect. He’s a 2 year starter who had 153 tackles and 6 sacks last year.

11/12/11 3:30 PM ET

Miami at Florida State

OLB Nigel Bradham (Florida State) #13

Out of the speedy linebacker factory that is Florida State, the 6-1 240 pound Nigel Bradham has 52 tackles, 7 for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and a pick in 9 games this season. He’s a 3 year starter and a very fundamental sound player who looks like a mid rounder.

OT Zebrie Saunders (Florida State) #77

Saunders, a mid round prospect at right tackle coming into the season, is seeing his stock soar of late. When potential first round pick Andrew Datko went down for the season, Saunders moved over to left tackle and has caught the eye of professional scouts. He could end up going as early as round 2 when all is said and done because of the value and rarity of good left tackles.

 

11/12/11 7:30 PM ET

Maryland at Notre Dame

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) #3

He’ll have to answer for some off the field stuff, but there’s no denying his on the field abilities. In 8 games, he’s caught 63 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns. Last year, he had 79 catches for 1028 yards and 12 touchdowns despite an inconsistent situation at quarterback. Someone is going to take a chance on this athletic 6-3 receiver in the first round.

S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) #22

A big thumping strong safety, the 6-2 220 Smith has 69 tackles in 9 games this year after 91 tackles last year. He also picked off 7 passes last year, though he has yet to pick one off this year, and broke up 7 passes last year. He has 8 passes broken up this year. In a weak safety class, Smith could be one of the first off the board. Mel Kiper loves him.

11/12/11 10:30 PM ET

Arizona State at Washington State

MLB Vontaze Burflct (Arizona State) #7

He gets a bad rep for being a dirty player, and while he will draw more flags than most players, it’s really just because his motor is non-stop. Plenty of people close to him will vouch that this is not a bad kid, but in fact a high character kid who loves football. Burflict could be the first linebacker off the board this year and is prematurely drawing comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, and Rolando McClain. It might not show so much on the stat sheet, but this kid has all the abilities and a world of upside. He has 51 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and a pick on the year. He’s a powerful hitter who also can do all of the finesse things as well.

C Garth Gerhart (Arizona State) #52

Brother of former Heisman finalist and current Minnesota Viking, Garth Gerhart could be a mid round pick as a center. He’s one of the more underrated players in the Pac 12 and while he might not be the most athletic player, he’s a fierce, fundamentally sound center at 6-0 300 pounds.

ESPN 3 Replays 

11/12/11 12:00 PM ET

Michigan State at Iowa

OT Riley Reiff (Iowa) #77

The consensus #3 offensive tackle in this class, Reiff has excellent athleticism at 6-6 300 with a 40 time in the 4.8s or 4.9s. He needs to get bigger, but that will come with age. He’s having a fantastic season and looks like a top 15 pick, though Michigan State’s fierce defensive line represents one of the toughest test’s of his career.

G Joel Foreman (Michigan State) #67

He’s played both guard positions and center, Foreman is the veteran experienced one of Michigan State’s line. He’s a borderline draftable prospect.

11/12/11 6 PM ET

Tennessee at Arkansas

DE Malik Jackson (Tennessee) #97

A transfer from USC, Jackson has all the athleticism in the world at 6-5 270 with great speed and burst and very long arms. He’s playing out of position at defensive tackle at Tennessee, but he projects as a mid round pick as a defensive end. He’s really catching on midway through the season and his stock is rising as he is contributing both against the run and as a pass rusher. He has 42 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 2 sacks on the season.

MLB Jerry Franklin (Arkansas) #34

A high character kid and a 4 year starter, Franklin has 337 tackles in his career. This year, he has 73 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 3 pass deflections, and 0.5 sacks. He had 6.5 sacks last year and plays both inside and outside for Arkansas. He’s best as a middle linebacker at the next level in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 at 6-1 250.

 

32. Carolina Panthers 1-8

With the Bills winning, albeit by 2, this is now the worst team in the NFL. They really can’t do anything right. They can’t do diddlypoo offensively, they can’t make a first down, they can’t run the ball, they don’t try to run the ball, they can’t complete a pass. They suck. They can’t stop the run. Every time the other team gets the ball they go down and get points. They suck. And yes, I did just copy and paste Jim Mora’s old “diddlypoo” speech and change the tenses, but it fits.

31. Buffalo Bills 1-8

By beating the Lions, they assured they won’t go 0-16, but they better hope it didn’t kill their chances at Andrew Luck. If the Panthers pick before them, they could easily take Luck or more likely trade the pick to someone who wants Luck and then the Bills could be set back another few years.

30. Dallas Cowboys 2-7

Where was this all year? I knew Wade Phillips was bad, but was he really this bad?According to stories I’m hearing about his time in Dallas, it appears so. Reports are coming out that Jason Garrett is changing the culture in Dallas by doing things such as making sure players show up to team meetings on time. Why wasn’t this done before?!

Also, in a hilarious story, Jason Garrett is allegedly forcing Mike Jenkins to bring a notebook to film study for the first time this season. Maybe that’s why he commits all these pass interferences. He watches the tape of himself committing all these penalties and then forgets about it because he didn’t write it down in a notebook.

29. Detroit Lions 2-7

If the Lions bring back Matt Stafford this season, they’re stupid. He has no business being on the field after separating the same shoulder twice in a season. Shoulder problems are what sapped Chad Pennington’s arm strength and they can do the same to Stafford, who was drafted #1 for his arm strength. They need to get him fully healthy for next season and not risk bringing him back too soon.

28. Arizona Cardinals 3-6

Their quarterback situation might be the worst in the league, as they’re 31^st in the league in QB rating, but their defense might be even worse. In the past 2 weeks, they’ve allowed a career high yards to a 41-year-old Brett Favre and made Matt Hasselbeck look like he’s 28 again. They rank 27^th against the pass and 21^st against the run. How did this team win 3 games again? Ladies and gentlemen: The NFC West.

27. Cincinnati Bengals 2-7

Everything that went right for the Bengals last year has gone wrong this year, most importantly, while they were winning close games last year, they’re losing close games this year. Cedric Benson had a great year last year, but with the team not winning, Benson has become out of shape. He seems to have forgotten it’s his contract year. Their defense is a fraction of what it was last year and their amazing corners aren’t getting any help from a defensive line that only has 9 sacks in 9 games.

26. Denver Broncos 3-6

2 games after giving up 59 to the Raiders, the Broncos scored 49 against Kansas City. I don’t really have a problem with teams running up the score (unlike Todd Haley). If you want to play your starters in a blowout and risk injuries, be my guest. This is the NFL. There is no mercy rule. There shouldn’t be a mercy rule. Better yet, there should be a forfeit rule. If one team feels the other team is being “mean” to them and running up the score, they can go ahead and forfeit. 

25. San Francisco 49ers 3-6

Troy Smith has been impressive through 2 games, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet. He hasn’t yet proven to be the answer for a 49ers team that desperately needs it. However, what he has done is win 2 games for a 49ers team that desperately needed it.

They now sit at 3-6, 2 games back of the division, with 4 division games left. That’s 4 more games against crappy division opponents who they are already 1-1 against. This means that, after starting 1-6, the 49ers are still pretty alive and kicking in the division race. Ladies and gentleman: The NFC West.

24. Minnesota Vikings 3-6

Where did Jared Allen go? He cuts off his mullet for his wedding and only has 4.5 sacks through 9 games after 44.5 in the last 3 years. I guess this just goes to show, the football gods don’t like when you change your appearance for a woman and will turn you into a terrible football player. Well, that is, unless you’re Tom Brady.

23. St. Louis Rams 4-5

Sam Bradford is still 0 for his young career in road games, blowing a late lead to the 49ers on the road. However, he remains great at home, with a 4-1 record, 4-0 since the opener. Could the Rams not win a road game all season and still win the division? If they can beat Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco at home, they could go to a playoffs as a 7 win team having not won a road game. Ladies and gentlemen: The NFC West (yes, I will repeat this throughout the Power Rankings)

22. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-4

The Jaguars lead the league in beating up on crappy teams and getting miracle wins against division opponents. They’ve beaten 2-7 Dallas, 3-6 Denver, 1-8 Buffalo, and then Indy on a 59 yard field goal at the end of regulation and Houston on a 50 yard Hail Mary at the end of the regulation. This not only makes them the worst 5-4 team in the league, but the most unpredictable. I am 1-8 picking their games against the spread this season.

21. Miami Dolphins 5-4

The Dolphins appear to have lost their two top quarterbacks (the hanging chads) Chad Pennington and Chad Henne for the season, thus eliminating themselves from the playoffs. For any Dolphins fans that don’t agree with me, just ask the Dolphins. They reportedly contacted the agents of Daunte Culpepper and JaMarcus Russell. Nothing says white flag like Culpepper and Russell.

20. Cleveland Browns 3-6

This is the best 3-6 team I’ve seen in a while. This season, they hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay (6-3) Kansas City (5-4) Baltimore (6-3) and the Jets (6-3), beat New England (7-2) and New Orleans (6-3), beat the only sub .500 they played Cincinnati (2-7) and only lost by double digits twice to Atlanta (7-2) and Pittsburgh (6-3).

Hopefully for Browns fans, they have an easier schedule next season, and Colt McCoy, with a top receiver added through the draft, takes his game to another level and puts this team into playoff contention. More likely, they’ll draft a crappy defensive player, McCoy will get hurt week 1, and they’ll go 2-14, but you never know. Maybe the football gods will finally go easy on them (and the entire city of Cleveland) next year.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 5-4

Well, the Chiefs are finally playing like most people thought they would to start the season, needing overtime to beat the Bills, losing to the Raiders, and losing by 20 to the Broncos. I’ll give them credit though. I didn’t have them winning more than 5 games all season, but I don’t think there’s any denying it. This isn’t a good team. They can win in games where they can establish the run and make sure Matt Cassel has to do as little as possible, but if they have to play catch up, they’re dead.

18. Houston Texans 4-5

Another team the football gods seem to hate, last year they lost several games on failed goal line conversions or missed field goals. This year, after starting 2-0, they have fallen to 4-5 because of their tough schedule and couldn’t even win a game they should have against a bad Jacksonville team because a late Hail Mary fell into the hands of Mike Thomas after it was batted down by Houston corner Glover Quin.

17. Washington Redskins 4-5

This team isn’t as bad as they looked on Monday Night and I liked their resiliency and a lot of what I saw from their offense, or at least McNabb. His receivers once again didn’t help him out much as they were responsible for 2 of his 3 picks (desperation was responsible for the other one). However, that defense has problems. Their defensive front is terrible. They are on the whole an average team, despite what people are saying after their 31 point loss, but that defense does have problems.

Also, I wasn’t a fan of the McNabb deal until I found out only about 10 million of that was really guaranteed. In that case, I like the deal. Sure beats letting him walk a year after giving up a 2^nd rounder and a few mid round picks for him.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks 5-4

This team really doesn’t like playing close games. They either look great or terrible every other week. Week one, 25 point win over San Francisco. Week two, 17 point loss to Denver. Week 4, 17 point loss to St. Louis. Week 7, 12 point win over Arizona. Week 8, 30 point loss to Oakland. Week 9, 33 point loss to the Giants. Week 10, 18 point win over Arizona. How can a team this inconsistent be in first place? Ladies and gentlemen: The NFC West.

15. Oakland Raiders 5-4

They had a bye last week, but I want to comment on one thing. 15. Oakland Raiders 5-4. That just doesn’t look right. However, after the NFL’s middle class was terrible week 10 (Kansas City, Houston, Washington), the Raiders have moved to 15 in my Power Rankings. Huge game in Pittsburgh this week to prove they’re for real.

14. Chicago Bears 6-3

I still don’t believe they’ve fixed their problems coming out of the bye. They faced two teams with a combined 4-14 record and a combined 25 sacks. They can beat those types of teams. I don’t think they can beat Miami, who they face this week, or Green Bay in a rematch, or any playoff team. But, we’ll see. The Miami game will be telling, as will Philly week 12.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-3

The combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 14-40 and the combined record of the teams they lost to is 19-8. One of these days, they’ll play a team that’s average and we’ll finally be able to judge how good they are. However, credit them for beating the teams they should have. They’ve got that much going for them. That and Josh Freeman’s 6 career comeback wins already. BEAST.

12 Tennessee Titans 5-4

They may have lost last week, but if they had been able to establish their running game, that game would have gone a lot differently. Randy Moss drew double teams, as he was supposed to. He’s the best decoy in the game. This allowed Chris Johnson to rush for 117 yards on 17 carries. The Titans lost, because their defense couldn’t stop anyone and they weren’t able to run as much as they’d like to. If they get a chance to do that this week against Washington, look out.

11. San Diego Chargers 4-5

Bye.

10. Baltimore Ravens 6-3

Last week, I brought up a stat about how often home teams win on Thursday Night Football (24-10). This doesn’t really seem fair, but I didn’t think much of it until Ray Lewis complained about it. Ray Lewis is a scary dude. Women want him, men want to be him, and animals want to learn how to talk so they can hang out with him (Old Spice FTW). It takes a lot to make him complain. Thursday games made him complain. Now I’m starting to think these aren’t a good idea. Then again, they do give people an excuse to get drunk on Thursdays, so maybe it is a good idea.

9. New York Jets 7-2

They won’t be moved up until they play like a team that should be moved up. In their last 5 games, they’ve beaten Minnesota by 9, needed PI to beat Denver by 4, gotten shutout by Green Bay, and needed overtime to beat Detroit and Cleveland. In those 5, Mark Sanchez is 103 for 195 (52.8%) for 1280 yards (6.6), 4 touchdowns, and 6 picks.

Once they stop playing like a mediocre team, I’ll stop treating them like a mediocre team. They need to get their act together for New England week 13, otherwise they’re getting their asses handed to them in Foxboro. Hell, they need to get it together this week. Houston better than any of the 4 teams they’ve beaten in their last 5.

8. New York Giants 6-3

They spent 1.6 billion dollars on a stadium, you’d think they’d make sure the lights would work. That might not have been as embarrassing as their play against Dallas though. They looked like they were playing in the dark all game, completely caught off guard. They had three turnovers and allowed 430 yards of offense plus a 101 yard pick six.

7. New Orleans Saints 6-3

Bye.

6. Green Bay Packers 6-3

Bye.

5. Philadelphia Eagles 6-3

Can you say statement game? The entire NFL is shitting their pants after watching that performance on Monday Night in Washington, including teams ranked higher than them on this list. I am a Patriots fan. I couldn’t get to sleep last night because I was imagining Vick tear apart our defense. If they can do that more than once, they’re better than any team in the NFL, with Vick, plus DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy. So much speed and big play ability.

I fully take back everything I said about how Kolb should start over Vick. This is not the Vick of old. The Vick of old wasn’t as good as Kolb. This Vick is the type of player you design in Madden with 99 arm strength, 99 speed, and 99 arm accuracy. I didn’t realize that in his first few starts because they were against bad or banged up defenses, but I’ve realized that now.

Vick was absolutely playing Madden out there. He killed the Redskins like he killed those dogs (or as DeSean Jackson put it, they were “like pitbulls, ready to get out of the cage). It didn’t look fair. I don’t know what the hell kind of steroids he used in jail or if he just spent all day getting jacked because he had nothing else to do, but this Vick is faster than pre-jail Vick, stronger than pre-jail Vick, and mostly notably, a better decision maker than pre-jail Vick.

I don’t know if he has just spent 2 years in jail just watching game film, or if Andy Reid is just a genius, or if he’s just taking it more seriously now, but he’s every bit the player he was supposed to be as the #1 overall pick in 2001. And that scares everyone in the league. Actually the sight of his name alone puts fear into me *cringes*.

4. Indianapolis Colts 6-3

Two remaining games against the Patriots and Chargers appear very tough for them. They also have Tennessee, Jacksonville, hell even Dallas and Oakland could be tough, and one loss to spare to have their 8 straight 12 win season. They might not be able to pull 12-4 out of their asses this year. They didn’t look good in a 6 point win over Cincinnati.

It helps that Peyton’s getting some of his receivers back though. He was down to Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon (who keeps dropping passes), Jacob Tamme (who keeps dropping passes), and Brandon James (an undrafted rookie running back), as his top 4 receivers last week. Austin Collie will be a welcome sight for Manning this week against New England.

3. Atlanta Falcons 7-2

I’ve said it before and that win over Baltimore just confirms it. If this team gets home field, they are probably the favorites to make the Super Bowl in the NFC. There isn’t anyone who can beat this team in Atlanta. Well, except maybe Michael Vick *cringes*.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3

Remember when this team was 3-1 with Big Ben coming back and looked like a shoe in for the Super Bowl. Now, they have multiple injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines. Their defense isn’t playing at 110% anymore, like they were to compensate for Big Ben’s absence. Their offense is still out of sync with Big Ben. And they are now 1-2 in their last 3 with tough games against Oakland (yes, Oakland), Baltimore, and the Jets in their near future.

1. New England Patriots 7-2

The Patriots are my AFC favorites. First of all, if they get home field, that’s a huge advantage. They’ve won their last 23 regular season at home. I know they lost to the Ravens in the playoffs at home last year, but everyone has a bad day and they avenged that loss earlier this season. Still 23-1 isn’t bad.

Second of all, they have Tom Brady. Peyton Manning is the better quarterback, but he can’t do what Brady does in big games. He doesn’t have Brady’s passion and will to win big games.

Third of all, it just makes sense. The Patriots are always at their best when they’re doubted. This year, coming into the season, this was all they heard. Tom Brady is more concerned with being a celebrity than a football player. Tom Brady’s wife cut off his balls. Tom Brady’s hair makes him look like a girl, or even Justin Bieber. Justin Bieber called Tom Brady out in a rap video. The Pats lost to the Ravens in the playoffs big time. The upstart Dolphins and the upstart Jets are better. Tom Brady is getting old. Randy Moss is becoming a diva again. The defense’s average age is 25. Even into week 2, when they lost to the Jets, people doubted them.

Their response, as it always is, fuck you guys, we’re winning the Super Bowl. That is unless they run into Michael Vick *cringes*. Hopefully someone figures out how to stop him between now and then.