1. DE Julius Peppers

81 sacks in 8 years in his year makes him an extremely dominant defensive end, especially considering his above average size against the run and his ability to play the pass, 6 picks and 44 deflections in his career. However, he’ll be a lot more expensive than Aaron Kampman (see below) and he wants to play in a 3-4 and I have some concerns about his ability to fit into that scheme. However, there’s no denying he’s the most dominant unrestricted free agent on the market.

6 years 91.5 million 42 guaranteed Chicago 

2. DE Aaron Kampman

Only 3.5 sacks this year, but this was because he didn’t fit the Packers’ new 3-4 scheme. He is still an amazing defensive end in a 4-3 scheme with 43.5 sacks from 2005-2008. Even in this thin market, Kampman could be very cheap for what he can do for a team.

4 years 26 million 10 guaranteed Jacksonville 

3. MLB Karlos Dansby

Unlike most of the unrestricted free agents on the market, Dansby is young. He doesn’t turn 29 until November. He has made an impact in Arizona every year of his career and has three straight years of 90 tackles or more. He has experience in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 and has the size and skill set to fit both.

5 years 43 million 22 guaranteed Miami 

4. CB Leigh Bodden

I’d move him up if he weren’t so horrible in a zone scheme in Detroit in 2008. The Patriots made a brilliant move by signing him. He fit their scheme perfectly and he would fit other teams will if they ran a similar man scheme. He’s one of the top 5 best man to man shutdown corners and Chad Ochocinco even said he’s the best man to man corner in the league. If you have the right scheme, he’ll be an amazing addition and command a large contract.

4 years 22 million 10 guaranteed New England 

5. WR Derrick Mason

He’d be rated a lot higher if he wasn’t 36 and didn’t retire for about a week last July. He is the most underrated wide receiver in the league and has been for the entire decade. He has 1000 yards or more in 8 of his last 9 seasons despite playing for the Titans and Ravens, two of the most notoriously conservative teams in the league in terms how much they throw the ball. He has some of the surest hands and in the league and is a phenomenal route runner. He never was much of an athlete, so you don’t have to worry about him losing his speed. He could play at a high level for 2-3 more years, the question is, does he want to?

2 years 8 million 3.5 guaranteed Baltimore 

6. MLB Gary Brackett

Undersized at 5-11 235, but a very smart player with excellent leadership abilities and good consistency with at least 99 tackles in each of the last 5 years. The Colts appear to be the front runners to resign him, but there’s a chance he doesn’t. The biggest issue with him is lack of scheme versatility. I don’t think he can play a 3-4.

5 years 33 million 12 guaranteed Indianapolis 

7. S Darren Sharper

A smart veteran with a ring and a ton of experience, he turned the Saints’ defense around by himself this year (with some help). He led the league with 9 picks and averaged 41.8 yards per interception return and even scored 3 times by himself. He’s a ballhawk, but he’s also amazing in coverage. He would be an upgrade to any defense, the only issue is, for how long? Sharper turns 35 next season and I’d be concerned about giving him more than a 2 year deal.

8. CB Dunta Robinson

He’s fast and would be a good fit in a zone style defense, but he has hands of stone, 7 picks since 2004, and 0 all last year, and has some character concerns. I think he gets a reputation as a #1 corner, but 65.9% of the passes thrown on guys he was responsible for were completed last year and he’s also one of the more penalized defensive backs in the league. I think someone will overpay him.

6 years 57 million 25.5 guaranteed Atlanta 

9. WR Antonio Bryant

The talent is there, 1009 yards in 2005 and 1248 yards in 2008, but is the motivation? Chances are, if you give him a longterm deal, it won’t be. He’s still young, 29 in a couple of weeks, but you have to worry about his character concerns plus past concerns about injuries.

4 years 28 million 12 guaranteed Cincinnati 

10. WR Terrell Owens

Owens proved that he could still be a decent addition to a team in the second half last year with 548 yards in 8 games, but he only had 281 in his first 8 games. He caught only 55 passes, the least in any full season since his rookie year. Some of that could be blamed on the quarterbacks and on his primary role as a downfield decoy. If he were the #1 option on a team with an above average quarterback, he very well could have had another 1000 yard year. However, that being said, he’ll turn 37 in December and he hasn’t done anything to prove to me that, at that age, he deserves any more than a one year deal. 

1 year 2 million Cincinnati 

 

The idea of the NFL Draft order is simple. By rotating the order in which teams finished last year, the worst teams are allowed to pick the best players in hopes of becoming better. However, with the ridiculous amounts of money top 10 picks have been demanding in recent years, does drafting in the top 10 actually make you a better team? As I was writing about how no top-10 pick is a safe pick, it got me wondering, as whole, how many top ten picks go on to be something great in the NFL.

Below is a chart with draft year (2000-2011) and how many of the top ten picks went on to make the Pro Bowl, and how many went on to make multiple Pro Bowls.

Year	Pro Bowl	Multiple Pro Bowls
2011	4	0
2010	2	0
2009	1	0
2008	3	1
2007	3	3
2006	5	3
2005	4	1
2004	7	5
2003	6	6
2002	4	3
2001	7	5
2000	6	3

4 made the Pro Bowl this year, which is impressive for rookies. Only 2 top 10 picks from 2010 made the Pro Bowl, but I’ll cut them some slack for now.  1 and 3 in 2008 and 2009, which is low, as you’d expect players to break out by their 3rd or 4th year. 3 in 2008, that’s also low. 5 of the 10 from 2006, but that’s not as good as it seems, when you consider that only two of those made the Pro Bowl multiple times and one of those repeaters is Vince Young, arguably the worst repeat Pro Bowler in NFL history.

2005 is even worse 4 Pro Bowls, only one of whom has made multiple Pro Bowls. 2004 looks good, but remember that is regarded as the best draft class of the decade. 2003 looks decent also, but again not great. If in a good year you get 60% conversion rate from top 10 pick to repeat Pro Bowl, it’s not a good sign. 2002 is another step back and even 2001 and 2000 weren’t good, 2001 being even worse when you consider two of those repeaters were Mike Vick (who spent 2 years in jail) and Leonard Davis (who made 3 Pro Bowls at a different position than he was drafted at, with a different team than the one that drafted him).

Top 10 picks are expected to be repeat Pro Bowlers, yet only 30-50% of them, actually become that. Simply put, all of the scouting people do, we still have very little idea whether or not a player will bust. There really is no such thing as a safe pick.

Now, Pro Bowls can be a bit of an arbitrary stat. Last see what happened to those teams that drafted in the top ten. Below is a list of how many times each team has had a top ten pick (before trades) from 2000-2012.

Cleveland Browns 9 

Detroit Lions 8

Arizona Cardinals 8

Oakland Raiders 7

Cincinnati Bengals 7

San Francisco 49ers 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 5

Atlanta Falcons 5

Houston Texans 5

Washington Redskins 5

Kansas City Chiefs 4

Chicago Bears 4

Buffalo Bills 4

Dallas Cowboys 4

St. Louis Rams 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4

Minnesota Vikings 4 

Seattle Seahawks 3

San Diego Chargers 3

New Orleans Saints 3

Miami Dolphins 3

Carolina Panthers 3

Tennessee Titans 3

Green Bay Packers 2

New York Jets 2

Baltimore Ravens 2

Denver Broncos 2

New York Giants 1

New England Patriots 1

Philadelphia Eagles 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 1

Indianapolis Colts 1 

In addition to being painfully embarrassing for Lions fans, Browns fans, and Cardinals fans, this list shows a disturbing trend. Teams that pick in the top ten often pick in the top 10 again in the recent years following their pick. 10 of the league’s 32 teams (more than 30%) have had 5 or more top 10 picks in the last 13 drafts, and that’s excluding the fact that the Texans (5) didn’t even become a team until 2002. 6 of the leagues 32 teams have had at least 7 picks in the top 10 in the last 13 drafts. 

 

 

For printer friendly, click here 

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Chris Johnson

3. Ray Rice

4. Maurice Jones Drew 

5. Andre Johnson 

6. Frank Gore

7. Aaron Rodgers

8. Michael Turner

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Steven Jackson

11. Miles Austin

12. Shonn Greene

13. Drew Brees

14. Ryan Grant

15. Jamaal Charles 

16. Cedric Benson

17. Randy Moss  

18. Jonathan Stewart

19. DeAngelo Williams

20. Peyton Manning

21. Calvin Johnson

22. Tony Romo 

23. Tom Brady

24. Ryan Mathews

25. Matt Schaub

26. DeSean Jackson

27. Roddy White

28. Brandon Marshall

29. Greg Jennings

30. Steve Smith (CAR) 

31. Knowshon Moreno 

32. Reggie Wayne

33. Pierre Thomas 

34. Larry Fitzgerald 

35. LeSean McCoy

36. Jahvid Best

37. Joseph Addai

38. Marion Barber

39. Marques Colston

40. Steve Smith (NYG) 

41. Malcom Floyd 

42. Wes Welker

43. Antonio Gates 

44. Dallas Clark

45. Arian Foster 

46. Jerome Harrison 

47. Ahmad Bradshaw

48. Ronnie Brown 

49. Mike Sims Walker 

50. Anquan Boldin 

  

51. Vernon Davis

52. Pierre Garcon 

53. Michael Crabtree

54. Philip Rivers 

55. Dwayne Bowe

56. Hakeem Nicks 

57. Terrell Owens 

58. Chad Ochocinco 

59. Hines Ward  

60. Derrick Mason 

61. Brent Celek

62. Mike Wallace

63. Robert Meachem

64. Jason Witten

65. Tony Gonzalez

66. Santana Moss 

67. Michael Bush 

68. Jeremy Maclin 

69. Zach Miller

70. Jermichael Finley

71. Brandon Jacobs 

72. Brett Favre 

73. Percy Harvin 

74. Matt Forte 

75. Jay Cutler

76. Ricky Williams 

77. Mohamed Massaquoi

78. Kellen Winslow

79. Tim Hightower 

80. CJ Spiller 

81. Chris Wells 

82. Visanthe Shiancoe 

83. Thomas Jones 

84. Mike Williams 

85. Dez Bryant 

86. Jabar Gaffney 

87. Bernard Berrian 

88. Donald Driver 

89. Johnny Knox 

90. Greg Olsen

91. Reggie Bush

92. Joe Flacco

93. Lee Evans

94. Donovan McNabb 

95. Cadillac Williams

96. Leon Washington 

97. Clinton Portis

98. Louis Murphy 

99. Owen Daniels

100. Carson Palmer 

 

Click Here for printer friendly

1. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

2. RB Arian Foster (Houston)

3. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

4. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh)

5. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

6. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

7. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

8. RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

9. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

10. RB LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay)

11. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

12. WR Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)

13. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

14. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

15. QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

16. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

17. WR Greg Jennings (Green Bay)

18. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

19. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

20. QB Tom Brady (New England)

21. RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

22. WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

23. WR Brandon Lloyd (Denver)

25. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

26. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

26. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NY Giants)

27. WR Mario Manningham (NY Giants)

28. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

29. RB Felix Jones (Dallas)

30. RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

31. RB Chris Wells (Arizona)

32. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

33. RB Shonn Greene (NY Jets)

34. RB Michael Turner (Atlanta)

35. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

36. RB Jahvid Best (Detroit)

37. WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

38. RB Peyton Hillis (Cleveland)

39. RB Tim Hightower (Arizona)

40. RB Maurice Jones Drew (Jacksonville)

41. QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

42. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

43. QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

44. WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego)

45. WR Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)

46. RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

47. RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

48. WR Percy Harvin (Minnesota)

49. WR Austin Collie (Indianapolis)

50. RB Cedric Benson (Cincinnati)

 

51. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

52. WR Chad Ochocinco (New England)

53. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

54. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

55. RB Reggie Bush (Miami)

56. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

57. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

58. RB Ryan Grant (Green Bay)

59. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (New England)

60. RB Joseph Addai (Indianapolis)

61. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

62. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

63. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

64. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

65. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

66. RB Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants)

67. WR Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

68. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

69. RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

70. QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

71. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

72. RB Mike Tolbert (San Diego)

73. WR Mike Sims Walker (St. Louis)

74. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

75. WR Santana Moss (Washington)

76. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

77. TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)

78. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

79. WR Wes Welker (New England)

80. WR Nate Burleson (Detroit)

81. WR Braylon Edwards (San Francisco)

82. QB Matt Schaub (Houston)

83. QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)

84. WR Jacoby Ford (Oakland)

85. RB Michael Bush (Oakland)

86. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

87. WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

88. WR Brandon Marshall (Miami)

89. RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

90. WR Mike Thomas (Jacksonville)

91. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

92. RB Danny Woodhead (New England)

93. RB Willis McGahee (Denver)

94. QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

95. WR Lee Evans (Baltimore)

96. RB Jason Snelling (Atlanta)

97. TE Ben Watson (Cleveland)

98. WR Anquan Boldin (Baltimore)

99. RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

100. WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

 

Quarterback 

Cincinnati

6-6 223

40 time: 4.92

Draft board overall prospect rank: #90

Draft board quarterback rank: #5

Overall rating: 71*

1/30/10: He showed more of what the coaches were seeing from him in practice, a ball that kind of dies at about 10 yards downfield. He did look more mobile in the pocket than I remember him from last year, but his arm strength was not good and he struggled to make a lot of the throws he’ll have to make in the NFL. He started out 3 of 3, but was 2 of his next 9 to finish 5-12 for 44 yards. He has good decision making and good short accuracy, but I think he’s a 3rd round prospect at best.

1/27/10: Looked like a stick figure at his weigh in and then went out and has easily looked like the worst quarterback at the Senior Bowl this week in practice. He went into the Senior Bowl with the potential to go in the 2^nd round. Now, I think he’s looking at the 3^rd round.

1/16/10: He may just be a system quarterback and he doesn’t have elite arm strength, but his accuracy was excellent last year and he’s a very smart quarterback with good decision making. He’s also very tall and has the frame to bulk up and become a stronger thrower. He threw for 29 touchdowns last year despite missing close to 4 games with an injury, and injury which has clearly passed based off of his late season performances.

            10/2/09: Tony Pike leads one of the most explosive offenses in college football, leading the Cincinnati Bearcats at quarterback for the past two seasons as they have risen from nobody to BCS bowl contender. However, he plays in a spread offense that bloats his stats and masks his lack of arm strength and inability to make reads out of a traditional pro style under center offense. He doesn’t have a strong arm, nor does he have a strong upper arm. He’s very skinny. He is smart though and gets the ball to guys in positions where they can pick up yards after the catch. He is tall and has no problem seeing over the line. His height allows him a very fluid throwing motion on short passes, but because his lack of arm strength, he floats a lot of long throws which could be picked off in the pros. He’s not very mobile and can’t escape the pass rush. He takes a lot of sacks. He’s going to be a 24 year old rookie which limits his upside. He has a history of injuries and really only took over the starting job last year so his statistical sample size is not as big as you’d like. He does appear to improve game to game and year to year statistically. I don’t see him as a star quarterback in the NFL, but he could be a starter in the right system and would provide a nice backup for a starter. I don’t see him going before the 3^rd round.

NFL Comparison: Matt Cassel

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

This is a low risk signing for the Colts as it’s only worth 1.2 million over 1 year. Harris is a former Pro-Bowl caliber player and has experience in a similar system to the Colts’ in Chicago. He’s had injury problems in recent years, but he’s only 28 so he’s far from washed up and if he can get healthy, he can be an impact player at a position of need for the Colts, defensive tackle.

Grade: A

 

By Cormac Eklof 

It is half way through the NFL season, and in and around the time where people start making lists. NFL rookie of the year, wildest Randy Moss moment of the year and of course, the NFL MVP award. A glance at the names on the suspects list for the latter shows the usual characters, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers and perhaps Chris Johnson, maybe even LaDainian Tomlinson.

Manning has lost his annual security blanket, Dallas Clark, and his wide outs are currently busy injuring themselves any which way possible, yet still Manning is second in the NFL with 15 TD passes, second in passer rating at 101.4 and fourth in completion percentage at 65.9. Most importantly, the Colts are 5-2. Rivers is right now at this very moment sitting somewhere with his right elbow in an ice bucket, having tossed the pigskin for an incredible 2,649 yards to date. He would need a complete U-Turn by the Chargers though, to be seriously considered. There’s a reason he has to throw it so often! Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson would also need strong second halves, but are very much in the equation.

Right now however, if you had to choose a worthy winner for NFL MVP, would there be any better candidate than the boy with the family name from County Cork in Ireland, Tom Brady?

Brady appears to be back to his game-managing best, doing everything he can to push the Patriots forward. He is doing so with a curious cast of characters around him. Gone is Randy Moss, in are the non-household names, the blue collar, almost nameless non-elite, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Brady’s excellent fake for the Danny Woodhead touchdown against the Vikings was a fully and passionately executed play fake, his athletic scramble and heat-seeking-missile accurate bullet of a throw to Tate in the same game was a thing of beauty. The former was someone doing a menial task diligently and faithfully, the latter was someone doing something roughly .05 % of humans could do. Brady is delivering from all angles.

Not only is he delivering in terms of what some would call intangibles, Brady is also submitting some fresh, progressive numbers too. He is completing 65.3% of his passes and that has added up to a decent 1,602 passing yards. He has 12 TDs and owns a very respectable 96.6 QB rating.

As the Patriots offence kicks into gear and shakes the rust off, he should see those numbers rise in tandem.

The most important numbers of all? His New England Patriots are 6-1, and scoring just a hair under 30 points a game (both NFL bests).

All things considered, the great personnel turn-over, the change of style of play and the drama surrounding Moss, Brady is submitting one of his finest bodies of work to date. With a good, healthy and productive second half of the season, perhaps it will turn into his finest yet.

http://irishbaseballseason.blogspot.com

Go back to Patriots Fan Spot 

 

Todd McShay: The NFL Draft is one big crapshoot? Not if you listen to me.

Yeah, because if you listen to him, you’re sure to fail. This guy is wrong every year. He doesn’t get to have a cocky sounding title like that. Some more of his brilliant predictions this year, Jimmy Clausen falling to the 2^nd round (because he’s the next JP Losman, apparently), Gerald McCoy going #1 over Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre Paul going #3 to the Bucs. Let’s see what brilliance he gives us in this addition of ESPN the Magazine (February 22^nd 2010, Page 13)

He starts off saying all the right things, focus on the top four positions, though he puts cornerback 3rd before pass rusher which seems a little backwards, but not too bad. Then he talks about how the top 5 in QB rating in the NFL last year were all drafted in the top 33, a very good point, and then he gives us this…

“So while All-America safety Eric Berry is tempting, the St. Louis Rams shouldn’t think twice about snatching a defensive tackle, Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, at No. 1. A combo of Suh and, say, LSU safety Chad Jones, will win more games than Berry, and, say Dan Williams will.”

Gotta love it. Right in the middle of telling us the importance of taking quarterbacks, left tackles, cornerbacks, and pass rushers (which normally means defensive ends, not defensive tackles as McShay seems to think), he tells us that the Rams should take a defensive tackle. Yes, that first option of Suh and Jones will win you more games than Berry and Williams, but most likely it’ll be a difference of like 5 wins to 4. At the end of the day, you still suck because Marc Bulger is your quarterback. 

But wait, there’s more

“Savvy GMs know the least-seen part of a player’s combine performance, the personal interview, is the most important gauge.”

Really? Now, I’m no Al Davis, but 40 times and measurables do matter. But apparently according to McShay, it doesn’t matter if you can run, if you can make up some nice scripted answers to interview questions. 

“Maualuga had a solid rookie season (63 tackles), but it is now clear why he was the third USC linebacker drafted in 2009.”

Huh? I’m normally would give McShay the benefit of the doubt and just assume he was referring to the fact that the other two USC linebackers had better rookie seasons, or maybe that Maualuga was charged with DUI late in the season, but McShay doesn’t mention Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing anywhere or a DUI anywhere so I’m just going to assume McShay thinks that a good rookie season proves a player is bad. How does America have a 10% unemployment rate, yet this guy has a job?

“But what that team will know is that [Derrick] Morgan is far more versatile and game aware than his counterpart (referring to Jason Pierre Paul), who hasn’t show much more than pure pass rushing ability.”

First of all, if you think Morgan is the better player, why do you have JPP going 3^rd over Morgan? You’re not smart enough to be questioning the Buccaneers intelligence and saying that they will make the wrong pick, which you didn’t say in your mock. Second of all, where was this pure pass rushing ability? JPP had 5.5 sacks last year, his only year in Division I. I don’t care what he did in JuCo, that’s JuCo. What did he do against good competition. How is he going to dominant the NFL if he didn’t dominate Division I. Morgan and his 12.5 sacks is clearly the better overall player and the better pass rusher.

“Buffalo fans had best hope their team has learned its lesson as it debates whether to reach for QB Jimmy Clausen at 9.”

First of all, Clausen won’t be available at 9 because, unlike McShay, most NFL drafters know what they are doing. The top 8 consists of 3 teams that already have franchise quarterbacks, 1 team whose owner is too busy being dead to draft the right player, and 4 teams that are going to be looking for quarterbacks and when teams need quarterbacks and there is one available, most of the time they take him. There aren’t 4 elite quarterbacks in this draft class so there is no way Clausen falls to the Bills. Second, if he does, they would be idiotic to pass on him, like Todd McShay idiotic.

He follows that quote up with this

“I see him as the No. 28 prospect in the draft.”

Behind who?!?! You mean to tell me there’s 27 players in this draft class better than a guy who put up amazing stats in a pro style offense despite playing through injury and playing with not a lot of talent around him. If so, this is the best draft class in the history of the world. Todd McShay does this every year. In 2008 he said he wouldn’t use a top 15 pick on Matt Ryan. One year later, Ryan had led the once 4-12 Falcons to the playoffs. He hates like every single quarterback prospect. If it were up to him, the forward pass would not exist. He just seems way too afraid to take any quarterback in the first round, but if you don’t there’s a good chance you just aren’t going to win at all.

And to finish things off

“A QB like Colt McCoy or Tony Pike will be waiting for them later.”

Yeah, there’s a reason for that. They will be waiting there for them because they aren’t franchise quarterbacks. History shows that in the past decade, 2 quarterbacks that have been drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round have made the Pro Bowl. That’s out of 24 quarterbacks. If history continues, that would mean a quarterback available in the 2^nd or 3^rd round has a 2 in 24 chance of making the Pro Bowl and a 1 in 24 chance of winning you a Super Bowl. Those odds might not stay true every year, but I don’t like those odds if I need a quarterback. The odds are much better to take a quarterback in the first round. In fact, of the 16 quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd from 2000-2006, 16 quarterbacks in total, 4 of them have thrown more touchdowns than picks in their careers. I don’t like those odds. I don’t like anything near those odds. I don’t like waiting until the 2^nd round to take a quarterback. For more on taking a quarterback in the 1^st versus not, click here.

One final thing, stats don’t say it all, but this is Clausen vs. McCoy and Pike this season.

Clausen: 289 for 425 (68.0) for 3722 yards (8.8) 28 TDs 4 INTs

Pike: 211 for 338 (62.4) for 2520 yards (7.5) 29 TDs 6 INTs

McCoy: 332 for 470 (70.6) for 3521 yards (7.5) 27 TDs 12 INTs

Keep in mind, Clausen was doing that in a Pro Style offense with half the talent around him that Pike and McCoy had. Yet he still had a higher completion percentage, by far, than Pike, and he averaged more than a yard more per attempt and had a QB/INT ratio that is double McCoy’s and higher than Pike’s. All this with a toe injury.

I will remain puzzled as to why Todd McShay has a job with ESPN until the day he no longer does. Mel Kiper is clearly the better ESPN NFL Draft analyst. McShay is just wrong, all the time. Professional stupidity of McShay’s caliber should be illegal.

 

McClure isn’t that great of a center any more, but he still gets the job done at age 35 and the Falcons learned firsthand the value of continuity on the offensive line. This was a very smart move bringing him back for the veteran’s minimum, but they’ll need to find a successor soon, either internally with Joe Hawley, who might be a guard long term, or externally through the draft.

Grade: A

 

 

This is an extension onto Herremans’ existing 2 year deal, so over 2014-2016 Herrmans will be signed for 3 years, 21 million, with 11 million guaranteed. This is a bit of a head scratcher. A new deal with Herrmans didn’t seem urgent and while Herremans was solid at right tackle for them last year (4 sacks, 37 pressures, 9 penalties), that was his first year at the position after moving over from guard. Why not make him prove it for another year or even let him hit the open market in 2014?

Even with two more years of solid play at the position, Herremans probably wouldn’t command 7 million per year on the open market in 2014 as a soon to be 32 year old. Hell, Eric Winston, a superior player who is only 28, was just cut rather than being paid 6.5 million by the Texans. Winston was ranked 11^th overall at the offensive tackle position last year by ProFootballFocus. Herremans was 26^th.

Grade: C