Month: May 2012

Titans Draft 2012

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Draft Grades, 2012 NFL Off-Season

 

20. WR Kendall Wright A-

Kendall Wright was 16th on my board and fills a need at wide receiver as Nate Washington is not a #1 receiver and Kenny Britt is unreliable. Without Britt, they struggled for consistency at the wide receiver position. This pick should be an A, but I don’t see how they passed on David DeCastro. He was arguably the top prospect of the decade at their position of biggest need. In fact, guard/center might be the only position where they need a new starter. I don’t get it.

52. OLB Zach Brown A

This is a great steal. I had a first round grade on Zach Brown, who is an underrated talent with elite athleticism. He also fills a big need at linebacker as Will Witherspoon is getting older. Brown could start year 1. The Titans have the makings of a talented linebacking corps for years to come with Zach Brown, Colin McCarthy, and Akeem Ayers.

82. DT Mike Martin A

This was a deep defensive tackle class so it makes a lot of sense that they could get a good value on one in the 3rd round. Martin had a 2nd round grade in my book and he will form a good rotation with young defensive tackles Jurell Casey and Karl Klug.

115. CB Coty Sensabaugh A

I said something similar with under Martin’s pick, but this was a deep cornerback class so it makes sense that they could get a good value at cornerback in the 4th round. Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty should fare well as starters without Cortland Finnegan and Sensabaugh could contribute as a nickelback right away as a rookie.

145. TE Taylor Thompson B

Tight end wasn’t a need, but they filled major needs in the first 4 rounds. Thompson is a nice developmental tight end and they need another tight end behind Jared Cook. When are they going to address the offensive line though?

190. S Markelle Martin A

Safety depth was definitely needed. Michael Griffin is still not signed long term and Jordan Babineaux is pretty marginal. I had a 4th round grade on Martin so this is a great value.

211. DE Scott Solomon B+

They needed a rotational defensive end as Kamerion Wimbley has never been a full time 4-3 end and Derrick Morgan is a year away from bust status. I don’t know if Solomon counts (I didn’t have him in the my top 250), but he’s fine in the 7th round and the Titans weren’t going to fill all of their needs.

This was another really solid draft for the Titans (their draft last year was really, really good: Akeem Ayers, Colin McCarthy, Karl Klug, Jurrell Casey and that’s before Jake Locker, who has upside). Kendall Wright, Zach Brown, Mike Martin, and Coty Sensabaugh could all contribute as rookies at positions of need and Markelle Martin was a great value in the 6th. The only reason this isn’t an A is because they didn’t address their biggest need, the interior of their offensive line. If they had taken DeCastro at 20, this might have been the best draft of any team.

Grade: A-

 

Tim Tebow Jets

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Trade for Denver: I’m a huge Tebow fan, but I don’t disagree with anything the Broncos have done so far. Unless you have a proven franchise quarterback (Tebow not quite there), Peyton Manning was worth the risk. Then, once you have Manning, you have to trade Tebow. Not only is he too expensive to be a backup, his presence on the bench would just be an unnecessary distraction for the team. The Broncos can find a capable backup through free agency or on the 2nd day of the draft. Good for the Broncos for at least getting something back for Tebow (4th and a 6th rounder).

Grade: A 

Trade for New York Jets: Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games in his first 2 years as a starter with a great supporting cast, but with a weaker supporting cast in 2011, he regressed and showed his true colors, as the Jets went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Surprisingly, Sanchez actually had career highs across the board in terms of his stats, so there’s still some hope for them, but if he continues to prove he’s not an elite quarterback, it definitely helps to have a backup like Tebow.

Tebow took a worse supporting cast to the playoffs last season (albeit with the same 8 wins that the Jets had) and beat Sanchez head to head (albeit in Denver with the Jets on short rest). He did this all starting out in a 1-4 hole and I think he is the superior quarterback and better leader. He won’t be the week 1 starter, but he wasn’t last season.

I think the situation is very similar to the one he was in last season in Denver. He’s not great in practice, so he’ll lose the starting job to a mediocre incumbent. However, like last year, after a rough start, the Jets will cave to fan pressure and put Tebow in as the starter and he’ll prove he should have been the guy from the start, reenergize the fan base and the locker room and help the Jets sneak into the playoffs as a wild card in a weak AFC. I think he’s the long term solution and if he isn’t, whatever it’s just a 4th and a 6th rounder and it’s not like Sanchez really is either.

PS: If the Tebow led Jets beat the Manning led Broncos as touchdown-plus dogs in Denver in the first round of the playoffs, Twitter will literally explode.

PPS: How slapped in the face would you feel if you were Jacksonville? You’re Tebow’s hometown, but you’re so dysfunctional that Tebow would rather compete with a QB who just signed a 40 million dollar extension than play for you. 

Grade: A

 

Tim Tebow Jacksonville

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The Jacksonville Jaguars football franchise is in a pretty poor state financially, so much so that in a few years, the team, as we know it, might not even exist. Despite the fact that they were 7-9 last year, and looking like a playoff team until about week 13, they sold out a grand total of 1 home game last year. The fans didn’t even care enough that 7 games were blacked out to actually come out and support the team A lot of the blame has been placed on the fans, for not coming out to support the team, but there is also the excuse out there that, in a recession, a relatively small town like Jacksonville, Florida is going to have trouble having enough money to show up and support their team, especially with 2 other in state teams. While that is somewhat true, there is one thing that can get the citizens of Jacksonville to spend their money. And his name is Tim Tebow.

This is not an article about what I think of Tebow as a football player. If you want that, click here instead. This is not an article about what I think of Tebow as a person. If you want that, click here instead. This is purely what I think of Tebow as someone who can sell tickets. Tebow is a very polarizing figure. Depending on who you ask, he’s either amazing or awful. However, despite that, one fact is true, the city of Jacksonville loves him.

Tim Tebow was back in his hometown of Jacksonville, Florida this weekend and it was pretty noticeable. He was doing an autograph signing at a local mall, selling his autograph for $160 dollars to benefit his charity (yeah, he has his own charity, in case you didn’t notice, he’s a bit of an overachiever). He was scheduled to arrive at 1 PM. The line started forming at 6:30 AM. He filled the mall and sold roughly 1500 autographs, raising (roughly) an amazing 240,000 dollars. 1500 people in Jacksonville were willing to line up early in the morning and pay 160 dollars for Tim Tebow’s signature on a piece of paper. Imagine how many people will pay 50-60 dollars for a ticket to see him throw footballs for the hometown.

He’s a borderline cult figure in town, having grown up in town, and having become a star down the road 75 miles in Gainesville as a Florida Gator. The Jacksonville Jaguars would be wise to draft him, in fact, they might not exist in a few years if they don’t. Tebow is a project, but even if he comes in and does decent for 5 years, winning 6-8 games per year, he’ll still make the franchise a ton of money. I don’t care how they do it, though it might be smart to trade down and not use the 10th pick on him (not because he’s not a good quarterback, but because it’s unnecessary to take him that early), they need to get Tebow somehow in this draft. 

Tim Tebow

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Quarterback

Florida

6-3 236

40 time: 4.72

Draft board overall prospect rank: #12

Draft board quarterback rank: #3

Overall rating: 88*

 3/17/10: He didn’t look great in terms of throwing delivery at his Pro Day, but he certainly, mechanically looked a ton better than he did in the Senior Bowl and all last season. In fact, the work he has made on his throw is a huge testament to his amazing work ethic and love of the sport. He’s still a project and far from a finished project, but he has good upside and I think he has the work ethic to fulfill it. I don’t see why some places regard him as less than a 2nd round prospect.

1/30/10: Contrary to what the media is saying, Tebow did not struggle in the Senior Bowl, in fact, his Senior Bowl was painfully neutral. I say painfully because I wanted him to either show me he’s not a true quarterback or that he is, but he did neither. He didn’t make a ton of tough throws, although he threw one impressive curl, and he completed 8 (should have been 9 if it weren’t for an easy drop) out of his 12 throws, but he was operating with Miami’s playbook which is one of the most college esque playbooks in the NFL. Basically, he was playing with the same Florida playbook he was comfortable and we didn’t get to see him be challenged by a pro style offense. So, basically, I learned nothing about Tebow in his Senior Bowl. 

1/16/10: Showed in the Sugar Bowl his ability to throw the football and step up in big games by throwing more touchdowns than incompletions, but his mechanics are still poor. However, I don’t believe he has a single mechanical issue that can’t be fixed at the next level and he’s an extremely hard worker. His intangibles are off the chart. Right now the #10 pick is his to lose, based off of the comments Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver made about him earlier this season, so he’ll need to step it up once again in the Senior Bowl.

12/12/09: Alabama exposed his weaknesses, but this is a hell of a tough player who can play quarterback at the next level, though he’ll do it rather unconventionally and won’t fit all offenses.

Update (11/2/09): I love to watch him play, but I fear that his ugly release will cancel out his heart and hustle at the next level.

7/2/09: Many people don’t like Tim Tebow as an NFL quarterback prospect. Do not count me as one of those people. Yes, he plays in an unconventional system and has an unconventional skill set, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Look at Ben Roethlisberger. He came into the league with very little experience playing from under center and in the pocket, and it didn’t matter, because that’s not the type of player he is. Both Tebow and Roethlisberger move around in the pocket in the backfield, roll out of the pocket, move away from defenders, break tackles, and extend the play, sometimes even with a long run. Both Big Ben and Tebow are great leaders who seemingly can will their teams to victory at times. Many people will mistake Tebow for a great quarterback. He’s not and neither is Roethlisberger. Both are great leaders from the quarterback position, that make smart decisions, make everyone better, and have all those intangibles, like toughness and that uncanny knack to get people to follow them. His arm is a little weaker than Roethlisberger, but its actually stronger than most scouts think. Many people don’t like Tim Tebow as an NFL quarterback prospect. But that’s just how he likes it. No one has ever really believed in him and he plays that way on the football field, with a chip on his shoulder. He’ll be a great addition to any team, whether as a quarterback, running back, wildcat, but he’ll have the most value as a quarterback. And if he’s lucky he’ll get a perfect situation, a good team that lacks an offensive leader, such as Minnesota, and he can be the one that will take that team to the places it wants to go.

NFL Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Tim Jennings Bears

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Jennings is a system specific player who doesn’t have a whole lot of value outside of the Bears’ scheme, but 4.15 million over 2 years for a solid starting cornerback? That’s a very good deal. Jennings ranked 17th on ProFootballFocus last season and was one of two players to play more than 75% of their team’s snaps and not allow a touchdown (Lardarius Webb).

Grade: A

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Tim Hiller Scout

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Quarterback 

Western Michigan

6-4 229

40 time: 4.94

Draft board overall prospect rank: #241

Draft board quarterback rank: #18

Overall rating: 49*

            7/23/09: Tim Hiller is a smart quarterback who definitely has a future in the NFL. He’s not the type of guy who is going to help a team right away, but he’s definitely worth a 3rd round flier. He is tall, smart, with experience in a pro style offense and has great touch. He doesn’t have the strongest arm and can be a bit erratic in games where he is counted on to make long throws, but his good short to medium range throw accuracy allows him to be a solid game manager. He has good leadership and has those intangibles that you want in a quarterback. His footwork needs work and he’s not the most mobile of quarterbacks. He isn’t going to out run the rush, but does a good job of reading blitzes and seems to know exactly when to throw away the ball. Put up great production last season as a 4thyear junior, though he didn’t have the toughest of competition in the underrated, but still not top tier MAC. He’s going to be 23 by draft day 2010, after finishing college as a 5th year senior, which shows he has the experience, but does not have a ton of upside. He’s likely a career backup, but a very good backup, who can step in and lead a team if needed.

NFL Comparison: Derek Anderson

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Tim Hightower Redskins

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Trade for Washington: The Redskins now have Evan Royster, Roy Helu, Ryan Torain, Keiland Williams, and Tim Hightower at running back. It remains to be seen how Mike Shanahan plans to use them, but Hightower is the most veteran and the best pass catcher so he’ll play some role for them next season and the price is pretty cheap.

Grade: A

Trade for Arizona: Not sure I understand this for Arizona. Hightower was their best pass catcher at running back. Ryan Williams and Chris Wells are both better runners, but neither of them pass catch like Hightower does. I think they could have used all three of them and they sold him way too cheap.

Grade: D

 

Tight Ends 2012

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Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P

Scoring System

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
<40 No NFL Future

 

1. Coby Fleener (Stanford) 81

 

2. Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 76

3. Orson Charles (Georgia) 73

4. Ladarius Green (Louisiana-Lafayette) 70

5. Evan Rodriguez (Temple) 63

6. George Bryan (NC State) 58

7. Michael Egnew (Missouri) 57

8. Brandon Barden (Vanderbilt) 56

9. Taylor Thompson (SMU) 55

10. David Paulson (Oregon) 54

11. Kevin Koger (Michigan) 53

12. James Hanna (Oklahoma) 48

 

 

Tight Ends

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Updated: 4/17/10 

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

 

1. Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma State) 86

2/27/10: After his 4.76 40, questions about the health of his knee have resurfaced. That’s the last thing Gresham wants to happen at this point. 4.76 isn’t awful, but he was expected to run at least .1 to .15 seconds faster so this is a bit concerning.

Despite being injured all season, he’s still an elite tight end at the next level. Assuming his knee holds up strong through the combine and in team workouts, he’s a lock to be the first tight end off the board and a first round pick. He’s big, 6-6 260, and fast mid 4.6 40, and has amazingly soft hands. He’s not afraid to go over the middle and he’d be a welcome target for any quarterback in the league. He put together one of the greatest statistical seasons ever by a tight end in 2008 with 66 catches for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns and would have been the first tight end off the board in 2008 had he declared.

2. Rob Gronkowski (Arizona) 80

3/27/10: There were rumors that, after back surgery that caused him to miss all of last season, he was still not healthy. I think he proved that wrong because, simply put, you can’t run a 4.65 at 6-6 258 with a bad back. The injury, and the rust that comes along with not playing a whole year because of injury, are still issues, but this guy could have been a first rounder if he had a good year this year and there’s no doubting he could be a steal for a team in the 2nd round. I think he’s clearly the 2nd best tight end in this draft class, at least in my mind, because of Dennis Pitta’s lack of elite athleticism and upside and Aaron Hernandez’s small frame and inability to run block.

Surprisingly enough, the top two tight ends in this draft class didn’t play all season. Gronkowski has been amazing statistically in his career, but he hasn’t given scouts much of a statistical sample. He wasn’t a full time tight end as a freshman, he missed 3 games with mono as a sophomore, and back surgery cost him his entire junior season. However, what I do like about his state that is good going forward if his career 16 YPC, meaning he was extremely athletic and tough to bring down in the open field because its very unlike a quarterback is repeatedly throwing to a tight end 16 yards down field. Also 16 of his 75 catches in his short career were for touchdowns showing once again his physical dominance. Good ability in the open field and end zone dominance are a very good combination for a young tight end. He’s a big moving target at 6-6 270 and can run a 4.7 40 assuming his back is fully healed. He has football and sports in general in his blood. And he’s still 20 so his upside is huge. He would have been the top tight end in 2011 had he returned to school and been healthy so I’m a bit puzzled as to why he didn’t. This year he’s looking at anywhere from 2nd to 4th tight end off the board depending on how scouts see him bounce back from injury in workouts. That would mean 2nd or 3rd round range for him.

3. Dennis Pitta (BYU) 77

2/27/10: Not necessarily known as an elite as rather a guy with good hands, Pitta benched 225 pounds 27 times, 2nd most among tight ends, and ran a 4.63 40.

Over an entire career, its tough to find a tight end who was more productive than Pitta. After he came back from his Mormon mission in 2007, Pitta looked like a man among boys catching 204 passes for 2726 yards and 19 touchdowns in three years. The only thing, he practically was a man among boys. Because his mission lasted two years, Pitta is currently 24 years old and does not have a huge upside. He’s probably better than half of the starting tight ends in the league right now with his good agility and soft hands, but scouts don’t really think he’s going to get much better than that. He’d be an ideal fit for a west coast offense and can help a team out right away, but his lack of upside, along with Rob Gronkowski surprisingly declaring for the NFL draft, he could slip to the 3rd round.

4. Aaron Hernandez (Florida) 73                         

2/25/10: There aren’t a ton of tight ends under 6-3. There are some, Dustin Keller at 6-2, but after Hernandez measured in at 6-2 with short 32 ¼ inch arms, his value becomes more limited. He’s a great athlete and can run and catch well, but he can’t do much else. He’s not much of a blocker and he hasn’t run a lot of pro style routes.

If he measures out at 6-3 at the combine, teams could look at him as the 2nd best tight end in this draft class. If he measures out at 6-1 or 6-2, very few teams will even consider him as a tight end at all because of his height. Besides his height, he’s an amazing athletic freak who can run a mid 4.5 40 at 250 pounds. He’s extremely tough to defend and he was one of the most productive tight ends in college football this year despite being only 20 years old.

5. Ed Dickson (Oregon) 73

He’s another tight end with great measurables, 6-4 245 with a mid 4.6 40, but he hasn’t been as productive in his career as some of the guys above him on this list. He needs to work on his route running and his run blocking but he has the upside to be a starting tight end in the league for a long time so he should go in the 3rdround, or 4th round at worst. His ability in the open field is very good for a tight end.

6. Andrew Quarless (Penn State) 66

He is a former #1 recruit for Penn State and has amazing athleticism and great measurables, 6-5 260 high 4.6 40, so he has the potential to be a 1st round pick tight end. However, his career at Penn State was not exactly ideal, in fact quite the opposite. Arrests, probation, suspension, you name it, he had issues with it. He finally stayed out of trouble and on the field for one season, his senior season, and was able to put together a decent season with 41 catches for 536 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it may have been a case of too little too late. He’s looking at the 5th round range, but I think he’s a 4th round prospect because of his upside if he continues to improve his game and stay out of trouble.

7. Garrett Graham (Wisconsin) 63

2/25/10: He’s still on the small side but weighing in at 243 is a lot better than the 234 he weighed in at the combine.

1/30/10: He had a few nice catches, including a touchdown that got wiped away by a penalty, but overall it was a bad week for him. First he weighed in at 234 pounds and then showed himself to be small on the field by not being able to block anything. He is the worst run blocker of any tight end that played in this game and I’m not sure he has a position at the next level. 

1/26/10: Very skinny for his position. 

At 6-4 238 its clear he needs to bulk up a little before he can be a legitimate NFL tight end, but he has very refined fundamentals for his size. He would be a perfect fit, assuming he bulks up, to be the receiving tight end in a west coast offense. He reminds me a lot of Travis Beckum, the former Wisconsin tight end who was drafted in the late 3rd round last year despite being undersized at 6-3 239. Graham could be looking at the same range if not a little lower because he didn’t quite as productive of a year as Beckum, mostly because he played in Beckum’s shadow most of the time.

 

8. Tony Moeacki (Iowa) 58

Showed occasional flashes of brilliance when fully healthy, for instance in the Orange Bowl this year when he had 84 yards and a brilliant 53 reception that very few tight ends can make. Unfortunately, that rarely happened because of injuries. In his career, he only managed 953 yards on 76 catches for 11 touchdowns because of numerous injuries. You name it, he hurt it, he probably hurt things you didn’t even know were body parts. He could be snagged late as a flier tight end prospect and I think he deserves 5th round recognition as he could be a starting caliber tight end if he stays healthy, but his injury plagued past is a major red flag. Even this year, by far his best season of his career, he only had 30 catches for 387 yards and 4 scores because he missed 3 games.

9. Mike Homanawanui (Illinois) 57

1/26/10: He’s being looked at as a big blocker so weighing in at 267 pounds helps his case to get drafted. So do his long arms and hands. 

A very big physical blocker who could be looked at in the 5th round by teams needing run blocking tight ends. 

10. Clay Harbor (Missouri State) 56

A small school tight end who I hadn’t heard of until the Combine, but he looked like a natural athlete in the measurings at the combine and he looked like an NFL caliber tight end with reliable hands in the drills. Level of competition is an issue, but he has 40 or more catches in each of the last 3 seasons and 59 catches for 729 yards and 4 touchdowns this year. Size was an issue for him, but he bulked up for the Combine and still had a good time in the 40 yard dash.

11 Colin Peek (Alabama) 56

3/15/10: He’s a great blocker, but weighing in at just 252 pounds hurts and so does running a 4.93 40. He also only benched 19 reps of 225. He needed a good Pro Day to keep his status as the top blocking tight end in the class, with guys like Mike Hoomanawanui and Nate Byham impressing at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Peek did not do that and he could slip as a result. That slip could be pretty significant given his position as a run blocking tight end. That could be a 2 round slip.

If you look at his stat sheet you get confused as to why he’s an NFL prospect. In his career he had 51 catches for 561 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, he may be the best pure run blocking tight end in college football at the moment and that could get him drafted in the 4th or 5th round. He’s big and overpowering at 6-6 255 and has great technique. His receiving abilities, though limited, are extra. If you want to get a look at his run blocking abilities, he will be at the Senior Bowl next week.

12. Anthony McCoy (USC) 55

Mostly physical upside at this point, but despite his size he was an inconsistent blocker last year and he didn’t have a ton of catches last year, 22. However, he did play in a pro style offense and get good YAC. He averaged 20.8 YPC last year and that’s always a good sign going forward. The upside is there.

13. Nate Byham (Pittsburgh) 55

2/27/10: Yesterday, Byham impressed by weighing it at 268 pounds and making him the best run blocking tight end in my eyes, but today he ran like an offensive lineman with a 40 time of 4.97. That’s not good.

2/26/10: If Byham was going to get drafted, it would be as a blocker. Measuring in at 268 certainly helps his cause to be viewed as one of the best run blocking tight ends in this draft class.

One of the elite run blocking tight ends in this class, Byham only had 47 career catches, but he has good size. His route running, hands, and speed could all be a lot better, but he has a role for him in the NFL.

14. Jimmy Graham (Miami) 54

A basketball player playing football, but then again so is Antonio Gates. Graham was a forward on the Miami basketball team and only had one year on the Miami football team. He’s an athlete, but didn’t show a ton on the field.

15. Scott Sicko (New Hampshire) 52

3/15/10: I love him as a late round sleeper out of small school New Hampshire, but he had some issues with size in the past, being about 240 at New Hampshire. He was 251 at his Pro Day (plenty big) and still ran a 4.53 with a 35 inch vertical and looked comfortable in the drills playing with that weight. 

Undersized, but with more teams switching to schemes that use smaller pass catching tight ends, Sicko should have a role an some upside in the NFL at the next level. He has 3 straight years of 50 catches or more and 2014 career yards and 22 career touchdowns, but he didn’t have a ton of tough competition. He’s, at the very least, interesting. For my exclusive interview with Scott Sicko, click here.

16. Nathan Overbay (Eastern Washington) 48

17. Dennis Morris (Louisiana Tech) 44

18. Cody Slate (Marshall) 44

19. Jeron Mastrud (Kansas State) 43

20. Caz Piurowski (Florida State) 43