I can kind of understand letting Matt Hasselbeck leave to allow Charlie Whitehurst to start. They spent the equivalent of two 3^rd round picks to get Whitehurst and paid him like a starting quarterback. It makes some sense to see what he can do as the starter for a full year, although he hasn’t ever done anything to suggest he can succeed. However, letting Hasselbeck go to bring in Jackson to compete with Whitehurst? That doesn’t make any sense. If you didn’t want to hand over the keys to Whitehurst, at least resign Hasselbeck. Jackson isn’t a starter in this league. He would be a solid backup, but he’s not a starter. The positive, however, is that we can all look forward to a Tarvaris Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst/Matt Leinart quarterback battle in training camp, which could rival Arizona’s Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson/Max Hall/John Skelton battle from last year as the worst quarterback battle in NFL history, so there’s that.

Grade: D

 

 

Debate the Buccaneers off season in the Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

If I had to pick one of the three rookie quarterbacks who started last year, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman, as the most improved this offseason, I’d have to go with Freeman. Reports out of Tampa rave about Freeman’s work ethic this offseason and how he’s spent a good majority of his offseason in the film room, studying last year’s film, and on the field, getting into better shape and improving his throwing mechanics. Unless he spent all that time at the Buccaneers’ facilities inefficiently, doing things other than becoming a better football player, I think he’ll be a much better football player this year. Remember, even Peyton Manning struggled as a rookie, but if you can improve in your sophomore year, no one will remember your rookie year.

That being said, that improvement might not translate to the stat sheet and the win loss record quite in the way one would expect. I expect his picks to decrease this year (18 picks in 290 throws last year), but his supporting cast isn’t as good as Mark Sanchez’s, or even Matt Stafford’s. He doesn’t have Sanchez’s amazing supporting cast. He doesn’t have Calvin Johnson. I’d even go as far as to say that Detroit’s running game and defense are better than Tampa’s. This defense should be better this year, especially against the run with the additions of Gerald McCoy and Brian Price in the first two rounds of this year’s draft, but they still lack a strong pass rush, and overall they lack talent on the defensive side of the ball.

They’ll be better this year, especially through the air offensively, but the talent isn’t there in Freeman’s supporting cast. Freeman won’t look as good as he should this year, even though close examination may show Freeman as the best quarterback in the 2009 draft class this year. Some teams have to be the worst and the Buccaneers, because of their overall lack of talent, look like a team destined to be among the lowly of the league.

Projection: 4-12 4th in NFC South

Power Ranking: 27 

Last Season: 3-13

Draft:

#3 DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Normally I am against using a Top 3 pick on a defensive tackle, but when you have your franchise quarterback and left tackle already in place and there are no franchise defensive ends available in the draft range, and you were the worst team in the league against the run last year, and it’s a player like Gerald McCoy, I say it’s a great pick.

Grade: A

#35 DT Brian Price (UCLA)

Very interesting pick, he is definitely one of the best available and when you are dead last against the run, you need all the help you can get, but something about seeing a 3-13 team go DT-DT doesn’t seem right. One upgrade at defensive tackle would have been sufficient this year for a team that needs DE, WR, S, CB, LB, etc, but it’s not an awful pick.

Grade: B-

#39 WR Arrelious Benn (Illinois)

There were certainly better wide receiver options on the board, but Benn is one of the highest upside wide receivers available and the Buccaneers’ don’t need a #2 or #3 guy. They need #1 guy and Benn could be that guy in the future, though I would have taken Damian Williams.

Grade: B+

#67 CB Myron Lewis (Vanderbilt)

I like Lewis a lot and I guess former defensive backs coach Raheem Morris did too. They need a successor for Ronde Barber and Lewis can certainly be that in time, but I’m not convinced this was the best pick they could have made with guys like Everson Griffen on the board.

Grade: A-

#101 WR Mike Williams (Syracuse)

Williams has a huge list of character issues, not caring about school, getting kicked off the team, quitting on his team, showing up out of shape to the Combine, but he has 2^nd round talent. I don’t love the idea of this team going with 2 boom or bust WRs, but it could definitely work out for the best.

Grade: B

#172 P Brent Bowden (Virginia Tech)

Yeah, they needed a punter, but with other needs, why would they take one before the 7^th round. Bowden wasn’t even the best punter available.

Grade: B-

#210 S Cody Grimm (Virginia Tech)

Grimm was a linebacker in college, but because of size he’ll have to move to safety. He’s a project, but Raheem Morris knows a thing or so about defensive backs and he fills a need. At the very worst, he’s a solid special teamer.

Grade: A

#217 OLB Dekoda Watson (Florida State)

I don’t know if there was a bigger steal or a better fit all night. Watson is built in the mold of Buccaneer great Derrick Brooks and he was a legitimate 3^rd round prospect available in the 7^th for a team that badly needs linebacker help. I would be very surprised if Watson wasn’t a main stay on this defense for years to come. You don’t get that type of player in the 7^th round very often.

Grade: A

#253 DE Erik Lorig (Stanford)

Lorig should not have been drafted. He doesn’t offer a pass rush like the Bucs need and he doesn’t fit the speed to fit the scheme. This is one of the worst 7^th round picks of the day.

Grade: D

Overall:

It’s hard to give a bad grade to a team that could legitimately come away with 7 future starters in one draft, but considering those guys are DT, DT, WR, WR, CB, OLB, P, they probably could have done some better things with positional value and gotten some pass rush help, though this was a weak DE class.

Grade: B

Key undrafted free agents:

QB Jevan Snead (Mississippi)

K Hunter Lawrence (Texas)

OLB Rico McCoy (Tennessee)

OT James Williams (Harvard)

G Sergio Render (Virginia Tech)

OT Derek Hardman (Eastern Kentucky)

TE Jeron Mastrud (Kansas State)

DE James Ruffin (Northern Iowa)

Positions of need:

Defensive Tackle:

The Buccaneers were extremely weak through the middle of their defensive line last year and couldn’t stop anyone on the ground. Ranking dead last in the league against the run last year in almost every major category. This will have to be improved if they are going to improve.

Drafted Gerald McCoy (#3), Drafted Brian Price (#35) 

Defensive End:

They only had 28 sacks last year and no one had more than 6.5 so an elite #1 pass rusher for the future will be a necessity.

Drafted Erik Lorig (#253) 

Wide Receiver:

I’d say there’s a good chance that Antonio Bryant won’t be brought back as a free agent this offseason, and even if he is brought back there’s a good chance that once he gets a longterm deal he turns back into a sloth, and even if he doesn’t becomes a lazy primate, they still could use an upgrade opposite him. Michael Clayton isn’t going to live up to his contract so they can just forgot that happening. Big mistake. They need to get Josh Freeman better receivers to throw to.

Drafted Arrelious Benn (#39), Drafted Mike Williams (#101), Traded for Reggie Brown 

Outside Linebacker:

One the first thing Raheem Morris did when he was higher as a coach was to cut everyone older than him. If he were Mike Martz or Al Davis this would be an okay strategy, but Morris was 33 at the time. Both Derrick Brooks and Cato June were cut and replaced with the oft injured Angelo Crowell and a former safety. Gee, I wonder why the Bucs were awful on defense last year. They need to get a real outside linebacker.

Drafted Dekoda Watson (#217) 

Safety:

As I’ve said before, the Bucs simply lacked talent on defense at almost every position. Safety is no exception. In fact, they haven’t had a good safety since Dexter Jackson in 2005.

Signed Sean Jones, Drafted Cody Grimm (#210) 

Cornerback:

The one area the Bucs were actually decent at defensively was against the pass, but that could change if Ronde Barber decides to retire or gets cut because Morris realizes he is older than him. Aqib Talib looks like a good #1 cornerback of the future, but they have no depth behind him and Barber currently so if Barber is gone, they won’t have a good #2 corner.

Drafted Myron Lewis (#67) 

Offensive Tackle:

Both of their starting tackles will be free agents this offseason. I expect Penn to be brought back because he’s doing a good job for them, but Trueblood was one of the worst starting tackles in the league last year so even if he returns, he could be upgraded.

 

Free agents:

QB Jevan Snead 

RB Cadillac Williams (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.3 million

RB Clifton Smith (restricted)- resigned 1 year

FB Byron Storer (exclusive rights)

FB BJ Askew 

#9 WR Antonio Bryant- signed with Bengals 4 years 28 million

The talent is there, 1009 yards in 2005 and 1248 yards in 2008, but is the motivation? Chances are, if you give him a longterm deal, it won’t be. He’s still young, 29 in a couple of weeks, but you have to worry about his character concerns plus past concerns about injuries.

WR Maurice Stovall (restricted)- resigned 1 year, 1.1 million

WR Brian Clark (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Lions 1 year

WR Mark Bradley- signed with Saints

OT Donald Penn (restricted)- resigned 6 years 43 million

OT Jeremy Trueblood (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

G Arron Sears  

DE Jimmy Wilkerson- signed 1 year

DT Chris Hovan- signed with Rams

OLB Angelo Crowell 

OLB Jermaine Phillips

OLB Matt McCoy (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Seahawks 1 year

MLB Barrett Ruud (restricted)- tendered (1st/3rd)

MLB Rod Johnson (restricted) 

CB Elbert Mack (restricted)- tendered

CB Torrie Cox 

S Will Allen- signed with Steelers 3 years

P Josh Bidwell

P Dirk Johnson 

Offseason moves:

Buccaneers waive QB Jevan Snead

Buccaneers re-sign OT Donald Penn

Buccaneers sign G Keydrick Vincent 

Buccaneers cut OLB Angelo Crowell

Buccaneers cut WR Mark Bradley

Buccaneers re-sign RB Cadillac Williams

Buccaneers re-sign OT Jeremy Trueblood

Buccaneers re-sign RB Clifton Smith

Buccaneers cut DT Chris Hovan

Buccaneers cut G Arron Sears

Buccaneers cut FB B.J. Askew

Buccaneers trade QB Byron Leftwich to Steelers for a 7th-round pick 

Buccaneers re-sign WR Maurice Stovall

Buccaneers re-sign OLB Angelo Crowell

Buccaneers re-sign WR Mark Bradley

Buccaneers sign S Sean Jones

Buccaneers sign OLB Jon Alston

Buccaneers acquire WR Reggie Brown from Eagles for 2011 6th-rounder

Buccaneers tender RB/KR Clifton Smith

Buccaneers tender CB Elbert Mack

Buccaneers tender WR Mark Bradley

Buccaneers cut CB Torrie Cox

Buccaneers cut P Josh Bidwell

Buccaneers cut P Dirk Johnson

Buccaneers tender WR Maurice Stovall

Buccaneers tender ILB Barrett Ruud

Buccaneers tender OT Jeremy Trueblood

Buccaneers tender OT Donald Penn 

# refers to unrestricted free agent rank

 

Hali had 14.5 sacks last year and though that was his career high, he’s far from a one year wonder. He’s had success in a 3-4 and in a 4-3. He might have been the safest elite defensive player on the market other than Nnamdi Asomugha. They might have paid him a lot, 60 million over 5 with 35 million guaranteed, but there’s a good chance he’s worth it.

Grade: A

 

 

Spikes may be turning 35 this season, but he’s not showing any signs of age and he rejoins his former defensive coordinator Greg Manusky in San Diego and 3 million a year for 3 years is a bargain for a player who is still an above average starting linebacker. The Chargers have 3 free agents at linebacker and while Spikes might not be as good or as young as Kevin Burnett, he’s too good of a value to pass on. Now San Diego has Spikes, 2011 2^nd rounder Jonas Mouton, and 2010 3^rd rounder Donald Butler at middle linebacker and the available cap space to sign one of their veteran free agents. Considering San Francisco shelled out 20 million over 5 to Ray McDonald, not even a starter, I am puzzled why they didn’t resign Spikes.

Grade: A

 

 

Running back

Eastern Washington

6-0 194

Draft board overall prospect rank: #113

Draft board overall running back rank: #17

Overall rating: 65 (early 4th)

40 time: 4.29

4/23/11: When Taiwan Jones, a productive small school back from Eastern Washington, ran a 4.29 at his Pro Day, along with a 39.5 inch vertical and an 11 foot broad jump, it definitely turned some heads. Here’s a small school kid with amazing speed. He naturally got Chris Johnson comparisons. I’m not going that far.

Jones rushed for 2955 yards and 29 touchdowns on 383 carries in two years as the starter at Eastern Washington. That’s an average of 7.7 per carry. He had 1742 yards and 14 scores on 221 carries this year, an average of 7.9 per carry, despite missing 3 whole games with injury, including the last two with a broken leg as Eastern Washington won the Division I-AA championship without him. That broken leg prevented him from working out publicly until his recent Pro Day and, of course, you already know what happened there.

The main difference between him and Chris Johnson is pad level. Chris Johnson runs with great pad level and Jones runs too high. He’s too skinny and top heavy at 6-0 194 to be as explosive as Chris Johnson at the next level, even with his amazing speed. He’s more like a Felix Jones or a CJ Spiller type, a change of pace back with special teams ability and good hands out of the backfield. In 2 seasons, he had 64 catches for 903 yards and 7 touchdowns so he has good hands and he can make big plays out of the backfield through the air. He also has some experience on special teams as a return man, so he has a role at the next level.

The problem is that this is a very crowded draft class when it comes to 3^rd down backs. I’d rather have someone like Derrick Locke or Jacquizz Rodgers who play with a better pad level and are more explosive initially. I’d rather have a more natural pass blocker like Kendall Hunter or someone bigger like Shane Vereen. In the end, the NFL is going to fall in love with his speed. He’ll probably go before all of those running backs I just named in either the 2^nd or the 3^rd round.

NFL Comparison: Felix Jones

 

 

 

Spotlight #1: Syracuse TE Nick Provo

Spotlight #2: Connecticut C Moe Petrus 

1^st quarter 

13:24: Provo with good strength and power on an outside run block.

12:13: Petrus with a good interior block one on one pass block.

11:30: Provo knocked down while run blocking.

10:54: Provo beat off the snap as a run blocker on 3^rd and 1, noticeably slow, but recovers to help convert.

8:58: Provo has one sail over his head, would have liked to have seen him actually try to put his hands up and catch it, but it was a pretty uncatchable ball.

8:45: Petrus looks slow on a pull block, can’t get out fast enough to make any kind of impact.

8:02: Petrus gets beat in run blocking, seems to have given up afterwards, short run up the middle.

7:04: Botched snap and turnover by Petrus, could have been more on the quarterback than the center, but a low shotgun snap.

6:59: Provo with a good pass block, good hand use to block for a long time against extra pressure.

3:50: Mike Ryan slow on a pull block on 3^rd and 1, failed edge block, big loss, forced punt.

0:57: Petrus with a good 2^nd level block, play goes away from him to the outside.

0:19: Petrus quick off the snap on a run up the middle, quarterback draw.

2^nd quarter

14:36: Petrus with another nice 2^nd level block, utilized this time, solid gain.

13:40: Petrus called for unnecessary roughness after a Syracuse fumble recovery. Forced fumble by Chandler Jones.

6:51: Provo with a good effort to throw a downfield block after a teammate’s long reception.

5:35: Connecticut brings pressure up the middle, Kendall Reyes in on a combined sack.

1:54: Provo has a pass bounce to him under pressure, incompletion.

1:26: Petrus bull rushed back one on one, pushed into the quarterback, who was also hit by Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones, a talented end who beats pro prospect Mike Ryan for the sack. Fumble recovered.

0:57: Petrus beat one on one by swim move for the pressure.

0:51: Petrus helps on a double team in pass protection.

0:25: Moe Petrus with another late hit after a pick, 15 yards, poor pass protection as well, bull rushed leading to pressure and an eventual bad pick, picked off by talented junior safety Phillip Thomas, his 2^nd of the night.

0:21: Almost another turnover, pressure by Kendall Reyes.

 

3^rd quarter

14:41: Provo takes a short one for 5 off play action, good job quickly getting open.

13:43: Provo open short on a similar play, more open than last time, takes it for 8 this time.

11:58: Provo on a tight end end around, not taking it for much, a yard or two. Interesting play call.

11:21: Ball off the hands of the intended receiver, Provo does a good job of diving to try to catch it off the deflection, can’t quite, but I like the effort.

10:31: Provo starts off as a blocker, disengages, wide open on play action on the goal line, takes it for the easy score, good fake, good hands, good play.

10:07: Petrus moves well on an outside pitch.

9:53: Back to back big runs, this one up the middle, hole helped sealed by Petrus.

8:10: Petrus outmuscled on a short run.

3:11: Provo struggles with ball rush in pass protection, eventually thrown, good job to hang in.

0:59: Petrus falls trying to execute a 2^nd level block, not agile here.

4^th quarter

12:46: Provo takes a slant on 3^rd and 5 short of the sticks in space, converts.

12:11: Provo takes a dump off, good open field moves and vision to take it for 10+ yards, physical, good stiff arm.

10:44: Provo has his block disengaged from when a good gain to his side, needs more functional strength.

9:29: Provo catches a 1^st on 3^rd against tight coverage on a choice route, uses his body to post up the guy like basketball, good hands and good fight to hold on with guy draped on him and refuses to go down at first.

6:44: Petrus pulls out to block in pass protection, good agility and blocking, gets set quick, good hand use.

5:42: Petrus helps open up a cut block lane on the inside, blocks to the left, seals well.

3:06: Provo takes another short one against tight coverage.

1:31: Provo targeted on 4^th and 6, could have been a completion, but a huge play by Kendall Reyes to bat it down on the line. Instinctual clutch play for the potential day 2 pick.

0:00: Nick Provo didn’t catch a ball in the first half, but finished with 7 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. He’s very good at getting open short and has good, dependable hands. He’s a great route runner in a Pro Style offense. He’s physical and can post guys up short. He doesn’t have a lot of vertical stretch ability, but as far as possession tight ends go, I think he can be a very good one at the next level. On the season, he has 51 catches for 537 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s also a great end zone threat and his team’s 2^nd leading receiver, his team leader in touchdowns.

As a blocker, he shows promise, but he needs work. He’s got the frame and the upside to be a good blocker at 6-4 249 pounds, but needs to add more functional strength and get stronger at the point of attack. He’s also not the most athletic, which effects his ability to both get separation deep, which I already mentioned, as well as his ability to pull block and block on the move with good feet.

Connecticut has two draftable prospects on their offensive line. Moe Petrus is the lower rated of the two, but the spotlight in this game. The center had his moments, but really didn’t seem to be an NFL caliber player. He had some nice interior blocks, but really struggled to pull block and didn’t look athletic or mobile in the open field. He also had trouble with bull rushes one on one and allowed a combined sack that led to a fumble.

He needs to add more functional strength at the point of attack if he excepts to be able to match up one on one with NFL interior lineman one on one. He did a good job as a double teamer in pass protection and open some nice interior holes for Connecticut’s running game, but he didn’t have a good game. He was also whistled for two late hits after Connecticut turnovers, one of the turnovers he was partially at fault for. He could still get drafted late, but I think it’s more likely than not that he doesn’t get drafted.

Mike Ryan, Connecticut’s left tackle, is a higher rated prospect and could go in the mid rounds. The 6-5 335 pound left tackle is a physically imposing player, but he struggled in this one with another potential mid round prospect, Syracuse junior defensive end Chandler Jones, who has recently declared for the 2012 NFL Draft early.

Jones has a lot of athletic talent at 6-5 265. He’s also brother to Arthur Jones, of the Baltimore Ravens, and Jon Jones, a UFC fighter. However, he could have used another year in school. Struggling with injuries this season, he had just 38 tackles, 7.5 for loss, and 4.5 sacks in 7 games as a junior. The talent is there, but the production never has been. In this one, he had 5 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and a sack and generally won the battles with Mike Ryan. Ryan has been inconsistent this season, but had a great game against Pittsburgh’s Brandon Lindsay, another mid round prospect. He’s a physically imposing player and could have a future at right tackle at the next level. He’s probably an early day 3 pick, while Jones is a borderline day 2/day 3 pick who could solidify himself as a day 2 pick with good pre-draft workouts.

Connecticut controlled the trenches on the defensive side of the ball, led in large part by Kendall Reyes. Reyes, a defensive tackle, had a great game with 7 tackles and a half sack, as well as a clutch pass deflection that ended the game. Reyes looks like a day 2 pick who could benefit from a weak defensive tackle class and wind up in the 2^nd round. He also benefits from being one of the best penetrating 4-3 under tackles in a class where most of the top guys are run stuffers first. He can also play 3-4 defensive end, something other top guys in this class might not be able to do as well.

The 6-5 300 Reyes has ideal 3-4 end size and 46 tackles, 13.5 for loss, and 4.5 sacks on the season. His play really helped limit Antwon Bailey to 50 yards on 16 carries. The 5-7 208 pound back is in his first year as a starter taking over for Delone Carter and rushed for 1051 yards and 6 touchdowns on 240 carries this season, as well as 29 catches. He will have trouble getting drafted late.

 

 

Cornerback 

California

5-9 186

40 time (projected): 4.46

Draft board overall prospect rank: #84

Draft board cornerback rank: #11

Overall rating: 73*

1/23/10: He’s ready for the NFL right now as a nickelback, but he lacks the upside, athleticism, and coverage skills to be a future starting cornerback. He is 5-9 and could run a 40 in the 4.5s which could drop him into the 4^th round. He also returns punts well.

Update (11/2/09): Burnt far too often, but is an NFL ready nickel corner drawing comparisons to 2009 2^nd round pick Alphonso Smith.

            9/19/09: Syd’Quan Thompson is a strong tough cornerback that will be a tough matchup for even NFL wide receivers because of his strength and physicality. He is an amazing pass rusher for a cornerback with 13.5 TFL and 2 sacks in his career and will be used very effectively on cornerback blitzes in the NFL. I’m not sure right now if he projects as a starting cornerback, but he can be a strong blitzing nickel corner. He’s strong in run support which is always a plus with your cornerback and he tackles very strongly. He isn’t very tall, but he’s thick, muscular, especially in the core area, and has a lot of fight in him. He also displays great quickness on punt returns, taking off right where DeSean Jackson, now of the Eagles, left off after he left Cal. He needs some more on man-to-man coverage as he’s been beaten more than you’d like in college. He doesn’t have great positioning or backpedal in the defensive backfield and he does not have the elite recovery speed to compensate. A good defensive backs coach can get a lot out of him though. He has started every game since stepping on the campus in 2006 and has become a strong defensive leader for the Golden Bears. Every defense he has been on has been a good one and that might not be a coincidence. He has good hands and makes a fair number of plays on the ball with 26 pass breakups and 6 interceptions in 3 season. He doesn’t have elite height, 5-9, or elite timed speed, mid-to-late 4.4s, though he plays a little faster than he’s timed. His lack of elite height will hurt him, but corners have survived in the NFL at 5-9 before. I’m not sure he has great upside or that he will ever be an effective every play starter at cornerback, but he can contribute to teams right away on blitzing plays, as a nickel corner, and as a punt returner.

NFL Comparison: Alphonso Smith

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: New England -2.5 (-120) 6 units

The Pats’ D sucks and now they have to face their first elite quarterback of the season. How on Earth will they stop Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham? That seems to be what everyone is saying. In fact, the Giants have become a public underdog (more on that later), with 60-70% of the action on New York, so much so that this line has shifted about a full point in the past week.

However, I think that’s far from the truth. Yes, the Patriots defense has given up the 3^rd most yards in NFL history, in front of only the 1981 Baltimore Colts (2-14) and this year’s Green Bay Packers. However, in terms of points, they actually ranked 15^th with 21.4 points per game allowed. They bend but don’t break. For reference, New York ranked 25^th with 25.0 points per game allowed, though they have been much better on their 5 game winning streak, allowing 13.4 points per game over their last 5 (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers, 49ers).

The Patriots might not have played the toughest slate of quarterbacks, but that’s not their fault. And if you look at the best quarterback they’ve played this season, you can see that they held him to 20 of 39 for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. That quarterback, some slouch named Eli Manning. The Patriots’ defense actually played really well the last time these two teams met, keeping Eli in check and holding the Giants to 24 points. I know the Giants didn’t have Hakeem Nicks in that last one, but Nicks won’t be at 100% this week either with injuries. The Pats defense has been a little better of late as well, allowing 17.0 points per game in their last 3.

I’m not saying the Patriots defense will shut out the Giants or even hold them under 20, but the Giants won’t be able to score at will like some are suggesting. I still like the Patriots if this game were to be a shootout.  They have an excellent pass rush that has gotten better in the playoffs and the Giants’ offensive line still remains a weak point. I think they’re going to have trouble scoring in the 30s. They’ve done that 5 times this season, but that was against Dallas twice, Green Bay twice, and Arizona.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have failed to score 30+ just 6 times in their last 27 regular season and postseason games. They’re actually 3-2 this year when scoring less than 30, including a win last week. Unlike last year, they can win ugly, although they’d definitely much rather play this game into the 30s. The Giants have a good defense, but I still like the Patriots’ chances of getting into the 30s.

The Giants held the Packers to 20, but that doesn’t mean they’ll do the same to the Patriots. I have 3 reasons for that. One, the Patriots’ offensive line is much better than the Packers’ was, especially if the Patriots get back Sebastian Vollmer this week, which it looks like they will. The Giants’ pass rush is amazing, but if Brady can get time, I have no doubt he can carve up a Giants secondary that is a weakness. It hasn’t been exposed of late because their pass rush has been so good, but if Brady gets time, it’s going to get exposed again.

Two, Brady’s receivers won’t drop a dozen balls like the Packers’ did. The Packers’ receivers had 8 (8!!!) dropped passes in that loss, leading to a less than stellar 26 of 46 for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick for Aaron Rodgers. If only 1 ball is dropped, you can expect something like 33 of 46 for 340 yards or so for Rodgers and that’s a totally different game. The Packers might still lose, but that’s because their defense gave up 37. The Patriots have a better pass rush so I don’t expect that to happen, especially after they held them to 24 last time.

Three, this game is indoors, which is always friendly to passing offenses. Eli Manning and company have a great passing offense and Manning has played himself into the top 5 of all quarterbacks in the league (have him 4^th behind Brady, Rodgers, and Brees, with Peyton Manning’s health being a question mark). However, as I said earlier, if this is a shootout, and I expect it to be, I think the Patriots have a very good chance of winning. Tom Brady is 9-3 ATS in domes. Meanwhile, when the line is 52 or higher in the playoffs (55 in this one), the over is 10-2 in the last 12 instances. Meanwhile, in the last 22 Super Bowls to go over the total, the favorite has won 18 times. Just something to think about.

 

Brady and company struggled last week, but I highly doubt that will happen again this week. The Ravens defense is better than the Giants and Tom Brady rarely has back to back bad games. He knows he’s lucky to have won last week and his comments after the game suggest that he could be in eff you mode this week, and when that happens, there’s no stopping him.

I have other reasons why I feel he’ll be in the eff you mode. For one, it’s the Super Bowl, obviously. Two, this is a huge revenge game. The loss in the Super Bowl to the Giants in 2008 is one of the few dents on his Hall of Fame resume so you know he badly wants to make things right, especially at his age (35 this offseason). He knows his chances are limited, even more limited to avenge it in such a fashion as beating the Giants head-to-head would. He came into the postseason in eff you mode against Denver because he knew how few chances he had left. I expect that to be only stronger this week after a bad week and against the Giants.

This is also a same season revenge game. As I’ve mentioned on several occasions, the Patriots lost to the Giants 24-20 earlier this season. As head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 11-2 ATS in same season revenge games. Brady also has to feel disrespected with most of the attention being on the Giants. Brady is 14-4 ATS in his last 18 as underdogs. He’s not an underdog here, but don’t try to tell him that with all the attention off him (much different than last time he was in the Super Bowl, when the Patriots were basically planning their Super Bowl victory parade all week). 

Going off from Brady’s ATS record as an underdog, Brady is 42-21 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 3 or fewer. He might not always blow teams out, but he wins so often, 135-43 SU as a starter, 16-5 SU in the playoffs. The Giants are also a public dog, as I already mentioned. I love betting against the public when they back an underdog. Not only is betting against the public generally a good idea (Vegas is rich for a reason), favorites tend to feel disrespected in this situation and come out playing well as a result.

Speaking one more time about their regular season matchup, the Patriots didn’t exactly play bad offensively in that one. Brady threw for 342 yards, the Patriots put up 438 yards of total offense and Brady did lead a game winning drive, he just left a little bit too much time on the clock for Eli Manning and company, who marched downfield for the winning score thanks to a crazy catch by Jake Ballard, some poor defense by the Patriots, and a questionable pass interference call.

In addition to that final drive, their problem was 4 turnovers, including 2 fumbles. I don’t expect that to happen again, especially the fumbles. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Brady threw 2 picks, but this team is not going to fumble twice again. If they put up 400+ yards again, which I expect them to for all the reasons I listed above, I think they score in the 30s once more and that’s with Rob Gronkowski’s injury.

Gronk’s injury looked bleak last week, but he’s out of the walking boot now and should be at least 80-85% for the game and 80-85% of Gronk is still impossible to single cover, especially in the red zone. An ankle injury won’t affect him so much because he doesn’t do a lot of cutting on the field. He just runs people over. Besides, no team adapts better to injuries than the Patriots.

I’m taking the Pats here, scoring in the 30s and winning by about 10 as the Giants hang in the mid 20s. I don’t expect this to be as close a game as everyone is expecting. I picked the Patriots at the beginning of the season and I’m sticking with them for all the reasons I listed above (going for back-to-back seasons of picking the correct Super Bowl winner in August). I’m making this a very large bet, because it is the Super Bowl. Normally 6 units bets are reserved for those rare “holy crap this line is too good to be true” type games (3-0 in the last 2 years on them), but I’m making one here. If this were a normal week, this would probably be a 3-4 unit bet, but it’s not so I’m going 6.