Last week overall: 2-0

Last week ATS: 1-1 (+80/+15%)

Overall picks: 174-92 (.654)

ATS Picks: 141-118-7 (+$3040)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)

Other: -100 (Seahawks 20:1 to win NFC)

Total Money: $4608

Conference Finals recap: Not much to say. I nailed my 3 unit with Green Bay -3.5 over Chicago and dropped my 2 unit with New York +3.5 over Pittsburgh. I made money and I am still up for the postseason and up over 3K on the season on ATS picks alone. I nailed both straight up picks though, picking Green Bay and Pittsburgh to advance to the Super Bowl. In total, I’m up $4608 on the year. Not too bad for my first year keeping track of money.

Random Notes:

Not only did the Jets lose last week, now it appears they have a quarterback controversy. No, Mark Sanchez isn’t being benched for Mark Brunell. I’m referring to the controversy that will ensue once Brunell realizes Sanchez wiped his boogers on him on the sideline. Click here for video.

However, that controversy pales in comparison to the controversy surrounding the sexual assualt charges filed against Rashard Mendenhall. Roger Goodell was torn on what kind of punishment to give Rashard Mendenhall because, on one hand, he’s a Steeler and there’s nothing Goodell loves more than screwing over the Steelers but on the other hand, that’s exactly what Mendenhall was doing (literally) and an enemy of his enemy is friend. The decision was so difficult to make that Goodell’s head eventually exploded, so it appears there will be no punishment for Mendenhall.

However, both of those two controversies combined are nothing compared to the controversy surrounding Brett Favre’s new commercial. Wanna see my Danny Woodhead?

 

Green Bay Packers 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Spread: -2.5 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay 5 units

Before I give my pick, back by popular demand it’s the Monday Night Countdown crew. Among some of their “analysis”in the Jets/Pats 45-3 game were the following.

Steve Young: It’s my son Braden’s 10^th birthday and we call him Brady B. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Pats.

Matt Millen: I think Tom Brady is the best quarterback on the field. I’m taking the Pats.

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I gotta lotta love for New York, but I gotta go Pats.

A couple weeks earlier Chris Berman picked the 49ers to beat the Cardinals 19-16 because 1916 was an important year in San Francisco history. A few weeks after that Berman picked the Falcons to beat the Saints because he likes Diet Coke. Mike Ditka has the uncanny ability to tie everything back to how he used to coach in the NFL (in case anyone forgot), while the rest of the gang just says they are picking this team because they are the better team.

Steve Young: My half-cousin twice removed once had a 3 hour layover in Philadelphia, which is closer to Pittsburgh than to Green Bay. The stars are aligned, I’m picking the Steelers.

Matt Millen: I think the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008. I’m going with the Steelers. 

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I got mad love for Ben Roethlisberger, but I gotta go with the Packers.

Chris Berman: WHOOP! The Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008. I’m taking the Steelers to win 2000-8. WHOOP! WHOOP! WHOOP!

Tom Jackson: The Steelers offensive line is banged up and good quarterbacks with receiver who can spread the field normally do well against the Steelers. I’m taking the Packers.

Stuart Scott: What Tom said sounds smart. I’m taking Packers.

Mike Ditka: I used to coach the Bears and last week the Packers beat the Bears and made Jay Cutler’s knee hurt a little bit. That’s not very nice. I’m going with the Steelers.

Cris Carter: I think the Packers have the better team. I’m taking the Packers.

I picked the Packers to start the season. I picked the Packers again once my Pats were eliminated. So it should be no surprise I’m picking the Packers here to win. I’m not really paying much attention to the spread. If you think the Packers will win, you think the Packers will win by 3. There’s always a slight chance of a bullshit backdoor cover with a sub 3 spread, but never enough that it should scare you into taking the team you don’t think will win.

That being said, I do have other reasons on why the Packers. Aaron Rodgers won’t be scared by this Steelers’ defense. He was 26-48 for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks the last time he faced them, last year, week 15. I’d argue that Rodgers has gotten better since then, and though the Steelers’ pass defense has also improved, Rodgers has improved more than they have.

Ben Roethlisberger is working with one of his most banged up lines ever. That wasn’t the case when these two played last year (though the Packers still managed to sack Ben 5 times). Maurkice Pouncey is questionable for this game, though he says he will absolutely play, but there’s no guarantees at all he’ll be 100%. The Steelers didn’t get any sort of offensive rytyhm in the 2^nd half last week with Pouncey out and they even fumbled on the goal line for a safety on a botched snap.

The combination of Ben’s poor protection and the Packers crazy blitz schemes means that Ben will be going down more than a few times this week. Ben deals with pressure better than any quarterback in the league, though, so while that’s a positive for the Packers, it’s not as big of a positive as it was last week against the Bears.

Another thing I like to do in the Super Bowl is see how both teams do against elite quarterbacks. Super Bowl teams almost always have elite quarterbacks so seeing how each team defends elite quarterbacks is a good measure of how well each team will do defensively. For the sake of this, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger are elite quarterbacks, while Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, and Joe Flacco are borderline elite quarterbacks.

Steelers week 1 vs. Matt Ryan: 27-44 252 yards, no touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers week 4 vs. Joe Flacco: 24-37 256 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Steelers week 8 vs. Drew Brees: 34-44 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers week 10 vs. Tom Brady: 30-43 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks

Steelers week 13 vs. Joe Flacco: 17-33 266 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Steelers AFC Semis vs. Joe Flacco: 16-30 125 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Packers week 1 vs. Michael Vick 16-25 175 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Packers week 12 vs. Matt Ryan 24-28 197 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Packers week 15 vs. Tom Brady 15-24 163 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks

Packers NFC Wild Card vs. Michael Vick 20-36 292 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Packers NFC Semis vs. Matt Ryan 20-29 186 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 picks

Steelers Total (without borderlines): 64-87 (74%) 655 yards (7.5), 5 touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers Total (with borderlines): 148-231 (64%) 1554 yards (6.7), 8 touchdowns, 4 picks

Packers Total (without borderlines): 15-24 (63%) 163 yards (6.8), 2 touchdowns, no picks

Packers Total (with borderlines): 95-142 (67%) 1013 yards (7.1), 5 touchdowns, 3 picks

The results: Fairly inconclusive. The Steelers faced more elites and borderline elites and they threw against them more. They had a slightly better completion percentage allowed for slightly fewer yards per, but a worse TD/INT ratio. They also were burned by both Drew Brees and Tom Brady, while the Packers actually managed to slow Tom Brady. I think the result favor the Packers, but they can be interpreted in either way. It’s also worth noting that more of Green Bay’s experience with elite quarterbacks has been late in the season, so they should be more prepared.

The two teams rank 1-2 in point allowed per game. Let’s see how both teams do against elite defense (top 10 in points per game allowed). Those teams are, in order, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, NY Jets, New Orleans, New England, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will not count Steelers’ results from weeks 1-4 when Ben Roethlisberger was out nor will I count the Packers game against the Patriots, when Aaron Rodgers was out.

Pittsburgh Week 8 vs. New Orleans (7th): 10 points, 279 yards

Pittsburgh Week 10 vs. New England (8th): 26 points, 425 yards

Pittsburgh Week 13 vs. Baltimore (3rd): 13 points, 288 yards

Pittsburgh Week 15 vs. NY Jets (6th): 17 points, 377 yards

Pittsburgh AFC Semis vs. Baltimore (3rd): 31 points, 263 yards

Pittsburgh AFC Finals vs. NY Jets (6th): 24 points, 287 yards 

Green Bay Week 3 vs. Chicago (4th): 17 points, 379 yards

Green Bay Week 8 vs. NY Jets (6th): 9 points, 237 yards

Green Bay Week 12 vs. Atlanta (5th): 17 points, 418 yards

Green Bay Week 17 vs. Chicago (4th): 10 points, 284 yards

Green Bay NFC Semis vs. Atlanta (5th): 48 points, 442 yards

Green Bay NFC Finals vs. Chicago (4th): 21 points, 356 yards

Pittsburgh average ranking played: 5.5

Green Bay average ranking played: 4.7

Pittsburgh average points per game: 20.2

Green Bay average points per game: 20.3

Pittsburgh average yards per game: 319.8

Green Bay average yards per game: 352.7

Green Bay did slightly better offensively against slightly tougher competition, though that 48 point game does skew things a bit. I give Green Bay a moderate advantage in this statistical analysis, as I did in the last one, but again it’s close.

At the end of the day, both teams have good teams that bring pressure and confuse opposing quarterbacks, and can shut down the run and make sure Mendenhall and Starks respectively don’t see much daylight all game. Both teams have stacked receiving corps with a wily veteran (Hines Ward, Donald Driver), and explosive playmaker (Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings), and good depth (Antonio Brown/Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson/James Jones).

However, I’m going with the Packers because I think they have the better quarterback behind the better line. No offense to Big Ben at all, Aaron Rodgers is just playing better right now. Rodgers didn’t have a great week last week, 17-30 for 244 yards no touchdowns and 2 picks, but one pick wasn’t his fault, he had several drops and he still posted a better line than Big Ben. Ben was 10-19 for 133 yards, no touchdowns, and 2 picks.

Rodgers was amazing going into that Chicago game. Besides that Chicago game, dating back to week 9, Aaron Rodgers is 196 for 269 (72.9%) for 2457 yards (9.1 YPA), 22 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Besides that Chicago game, Rodgers went 77 for 105 for 969 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 1 pick in his first 3 playoff games.

The Packers are the type of team that offensively matches up well with the Steelers. They can spread the field effectively. They can go to a spread offense and that’s the Steelers achilles heel. They couldn’t stop Tom Brady or Drew Brees when they did the same thing this year and remember the Super Bowl two years ago. Kurt Warner and company didn’t win, but they played so well once they went spread that they could have easily won if they had played that way the whole game.

Going to a spread forces the Steelers to either move James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley or to take them out of the game completely to avoid them being matched up against a receiver. They then won’t be able to rely on their pass rush as much and will be forced to rely on corner play, which is the weakness of their defense. That’s what the Patriots and Saints and 2008 Cardinals did. The Packers do that almost as well as anyone in the game.

Anothing thing you can’t forget, this is a dome game and the Packers’ offense, as a pass heavy, downfield explosive offense, has the advantage in this type of game. You saw what they did in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers’ career passer rating in a dome is 111.2.

I trust him more. I trust his line more. I trust the Packers depth more (don’t understimate their depth). I picked the Packers in August (over the Ravens, but whatever) and I’m doing it again in late January. Packers 23. Steelers 17. I’m making it a 5 unit because it’s the biggest game of the season, I feel confident in it, and I want to go out with a bang.

Super Bowl Prop Bet

Pittsburgh wins by 1-6 +400 (1 unit)/Green Bay wins by 1-6 +330 (1 unit)

This is going to be a close game no matter what. I can’t see this being decided by more than a touchdown. These two teams are so evenly matched. 4 of the last 7 Super Bowls have been decided by less than a touchdown. Of the three that weren’t, two needed a late pick six to make the lead bigger than 7. Besides, the Steelers have only lost two games by more than 5 points all year while the Packers haven’t lost a game by more than 4 points since week 8 of 2009.

I’m betting 1 unit on each so if the Steelers win by 6 or fewer, I win 300 (minus the 100 for losing the Packers part of the bet) and if the Packers win by 6 or fewer I win 230 (minus the 100 for losing the Steelers part of the bet). Average those two out, that’s +265. Sure I’ll take a this game will be decided by less than a touchdown +265 bet. Makes so much sense.

 

By Vince Vitale 

First off this is not a chicken little article with me in panic over a Rams preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams were 3-1 in the 2009 preseason and it meant nothing. However my premise is are the St. Louis Rams getting any better? Sure it is early and Steven Spagnuolo and crew have only had 16 games to turn things around and it is just not going to happen that fast. However just like under Scott Linehan and Jim Haslett I do not see improvement or change. 

I want to hang my hat on the Sam Bradford express as much as anyone else but a ton of other things have to improve for him to be allowed to make a difference. The Rams had injuries in the O-line and secondary last night that caused them to shuffle some players and play a lot of young players for extended periods of time and I understand that. However the Rams offensive line can not seem to block no matter what players are out there. The Rams continue to miss assignments and fail to block from the inside out. You thought if they would ever block they would at least try to keep Sam Bradford clean. Nope four sacks while Sam was in there in only 20+ plays. The Rams running backs continue to be the worst in the league in blitz pickup. The Rams linebackers have been beaten down the seem over the past few years by every no name TE in the game. The players and coaches have changed but the culture and results have not. Something or someone has to be able to get through to this group of players. The Rams only have three more preseason games to iron out these issues and improve.

While it may take 2-3 more years to get the right personnel to be seriously successful it is hard to watch bad teams like the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders still manage five wins in 2009 while the Rams have only won six games in three years. Steve Loney has to get the Rams offensive line to be able to block. Pat Shurmer has to have the confidence that the Rams O-line can block long enough for him to actually install an NFL game plan. Steve Spagnuolo has to get players to step up and play above their abilities. Coach Spagnuolo needs to bring the aggressive pass rushing of the NFC East to the Rams. Even if we do not have the same personnel put them in positions to succeed with scheme and game plan. I am still concerned that over the past few years players have left the Rams and started on other teams while not playing well with the Rams. In addition current players like Laurent Robinson and Danny Amendola continue to be the best Rams after being taken from other teams. Why can’t we turn our own draft picks like Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton into stars? 

http://www.stlouisramfan.com/ 

 

 

Debate the Rams Off season in the Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

The Rams definitely took a step in the right direction by taking a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford first overall. However, Rams fans aren’t going to see that move pan out right away. Rookie quarterbacks struggle unless they have three things, experience in a Pro Style offense, a good supporting cast, and 30 or more starts in college. Bradford has none of those three things. Plus, he hasn’t been in a game on any level since last October thanks to an injury. He’ll likely be rusty. That doesn’t mean he won’t pan out ever. Plenty of quarterbacks have had awful rookie years and gone on to become Pro Bowlers, even future Hall of Famers in Peyton Manning’s case. He just won’t be good this year. And if they start AJ Feeley over Bradford, that’s great, history shows quarterbacks who sit in their rookie year pan out more, but don’t expect Feeley to win them a ton of games either.

Now, this team is more than a quarterback. Let’s talk about their supporting cast, a thing I called bad when I mentioned that Bradford didn’t have a strong supporting cast, essential to a rookie quarterback’s success. Steven Jackson is great. He’s also hurt and couldn’t carry them to more than 1 win last year when he was healthy. Their offensive line is banking on rookie Rodger Saffold having a good first year and Jason Smith panning out in his 2^nd year in the league. Injuries have decimated their offensive front so far in their offseason, which is not a good sign.

Their defense isn’t good. Their best chance at any life defensively is their pass rush. Head coach Steve Spagnoulo has done great things in the best with pass rushes and they still have a lot of untapped potential in former 2^nd overall pick Chris Long. They also drafted a few interesting pass rushing options in the mid rounds this year, but overall, their pass rush isn’t making me jump out of my seat.

Their linebackers aren’t good, their defensive tackles aren’t good, their secondary isn’t good, there simply aren’t enough good players on this defense for them to be anything for other teams to fear. Don’t underestimate losing OJ Atogwe either. Their defense went from bad to worse after he got hurt last year and now it looks like the free agent won’t be back next season.

Projection: 2-14 4th in NFC West 

Power Ranking: 31 

Last Season: 1-15 

Draft:

#1 QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

They could have done worse and taken a non-QB, but I would have taken Clausen. I think Clausen’s history of success in an NFL style offense with limited talent around him made him best prepared for the Rams, but it’s hard to give them a bad grade because they picked a guy with more upside at a position of extreme need and value.

Grade: B

#33 OT Roger Saffold (Indiana)

I didn’t see it coming, but I like it. Alex Barron was the most penalized left tackle in the league last year and also gave up 9 sacks. Jason Smith is the left tackle of the future, but he struggled some last year. Even if Smith is able to pan out at left tackle and Barron is able to move over to right and improve, Saffold is still an above average left guard. There’s also a good chance that either Smith doesn’t pan out or Barron continues to struggle and in that case, Saffold can play tackle. The Rams need to protect their quarterback. Maybe the Lions should take a look at what the Rams are doing.

Grade: B+

#65 CB Jerome Murphy (South Florida)

Murphy fits the draft range alright, but I think there were better players at the position than him and I didn’t have cornerback as one of the Rams’ major needs. The Rams need help at linebacker, receiver, and on the defensive line so I don’t understand this one so much.

Grade: C

#99 WR Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati)

I would have gone with Everson Griffen because I had him higher rated on my board and because he fills a greater need in terms of positional value, but it’s hard to argue with the Rams getting a 2^nd-3^rd round caliber WR in the top of the 4^th, especially when they have a young rookie quarterback who is used to having talented wide receivers.

Grade: A-

#132 TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Illinois)

Tight end was a need, but I would have liked to have seen them go with a pass catching tight end over a run blocking tight end, even given how good of a blocker Hoomanawanui is. With so many other needs, this luxury pick doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Grade: C-

#149 DE Hall Davis (Louisiana Lafayette)

I didn’t have Davis on my radar as a 5^th round guy at all, but he fills a need and I trust Steve Spagnuolo’s judgements with DEs given his work with Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora in New York.

Grade: C+

#170: TE Fendi Onobun (Houston)

The Rams take their pass catching tight end, I think. Fendi has barely played any football. He is a basketball player with amazing measurables and good upside as a tight end. The Rams had other needs and can’t afford to be making picks like this.

Grade: D

#189: DE Eugene Sims (West Texas A&M)

Trying to trust Steve Spagnuolo’s judgement with ends, but Sims probably shouldn’t have been drafted. Plus, having already taken one end this draft, the Rams really needed to focus on other needs with this pick, DT, LB, S.

Grade: C-

#211: CB Marquis Johnson (Alabama)

Once again ignoring bigger needs to make reaches at positions that aren’t huge needs. I didn’t have Johnson on my radar as a draft prospect at all.

Grade: C

#226: DE George Selvie (South Florida)

I like the 3^rd defensive end they took a lot more than the first two, but still this is their 3^rd defensive end. When you have as many needs as the Rams do, you can’t afford to triple up on positions and Selvie is a bit undersized.

Grade: A-

#254: MLB Josh Hull (Penn State)

Hull actually fills a need at LB, but he’s not the starting caliber LB I was expecting them to get out of this draft.

Grade: A

Overall:

Overall, they could have done a lot worse. They are set up pretty nicely for the future with their franchise QB, a solid offensive line, a franchise DE (Chris Long), and they added some interesting players into the mix and made some nice unorthodox picks.

Grade: B-

Key undrafted free agents signed

OLB Simoni Lawrence (Minnesota)

RB Keith Totson (Oklahoma State)

QB Thaddeus Lewis (Duke)

Positions of need:

Quarterback:

Marc Bulger is practically dead because of all the sacks he has taken over the past few years. He’s so shell shocked that they had to bench him for Kyle Boller last season. Kyle Boller proved last year that he’s nothing but a former 1^st round pick bust and Keith Null, I can only hope, was only drafted and started to help the Rams tank, because I can’t think of any reason why you’d start a guy with zero arm strength and awful decision making. Without a franchise quarterback, they will be mediocre at best again next year and for every year until they get one. This is why I feel they have to draft a quarterback first overall. They may also try to acquire either Jason Campbell or Michael Vick in the offseason, but I see both as mistakes because neither of those guys are franchise quarterbacks, but merely stopgaps. Campbell has a career 25-32 record as a starter and that’s with a much better supporting cast than the one he will have in St. Louis.

Drafted Sam Bradford (#1) 

Wide Receiver:

Assuming they get a franchise quarterback, they’ll have to get him someone to throw to. Donnie Avery is decent, but lacks elite size and Brandon Gibson surprised late last season as a rookie, but he doesn’t have a ton of upside. Getting a true #1 option or future #1 option will be high on their shopping list for this offseason. If the Rams take Clausen first overall, they would be smart to draft Golden Tate in the 2^nd as Tate was Clausen’s top receiver over the last two years at Notre Dame.

Drafted Marshawn Gilyard (#99) 

Defensive End:

Even if Chris Long pans out, which, after a disappointing 2^nd year, is not a sure thing, they will still need a left end opposite him. They only had 22 sacks as a team last year and 6.5 of those came from Leonard Little who is on the wrong side of 30 and also a free agent. I would not be surprised if they dangled a mid-to-late round pick in front of the Giants for Osi Umenyiora, who has demanded that they either give him back his starting job or trade/release him. Osi has already won a ring, so he may enjoy the opportunity to come play for Steve Spagnuolo, his former defensive coordinator who is now the Rams’ head coach, get a full time starting job, mentor a young guy at the position like Chris Long, and try to help rebuild a once proud franchise.

Drafted Hall Davis (#149), Drafted Eugene Sims (#189), Drafted George Selvie (#226)

Defensive Tackle:

Rookie Dorell Scott is probably the only defensive tackle from their 2009 roster I’d want playing any significant playing time on my team, and even he, I don’t think, is quite starter material. They’ll give Adam Carriker one more shot at the position, but he’s coming off of a major shoulder injury and he wasn’t great before the injury either. If they draft or sign a defensive tackle, they could move Carriker out to left end, his college position. That being said, drafting Ndamukong Suh #1 over Jimmy Clausen would be a mistake. There’s a reason defensive tackle is 4^th on this list and quarterback 1^st. They won’t get anywhere without a franchise quarterback.

Signed Fred Robbins, Signed Chris Hovan

Outside Linebacker:

After they traded Will Witherspoon, this defense just fell apart. A late season injury by OJ Atogwe didn’t help, but going from Witherspoon to Paris Lenon at the outside linebacker position was a major downgrade and noticeably so. Lenon is a free agent this offseason and I doubt he will be resigned.

Traded for Bobby Carpenter 

Safety:

Speaking of OJ Atogwe, when he down with injury, then the entire defense just fell apart. Atogwe is a free agent, so, while they have more pressing needs, a replacement would be nice.

Traded for Kevin Payne 

Tight End:

The top three tight ends on their depth chart are free agents so they may look to go in a completely different direction at the position. However, once again, they have more pressing issues.

Drafted Mike Hoomanawanui (#132), Drafted Fendi Onobun (#170) 

Running Back:

They have almost no depth behind Steven Jackson. I don’t know how many more 300 carry seasons Sjax can handle so a solid backup, preferably a young guy who could take over if Jackson starts to break down, is a need and something I expect them to look for late in the draft.

 

Free Agents:

QB Marc Bulger- signed with Ravens 1 year

QB Kyle Boller- signed with Raiders

RB Kenneth Darby (restricted)- resigned

RB Sakmon Gado (restricted)

WR Ruvell Martin (restricted) 

TE Randy McMichael- signed with Chargers 1 year

TE Daniel Fells- resigned 1 year 1.5 million

OT Alex Barron (restricted)- traded to Cowboys

G Mark Setterstrom (restricted)- resigned 1 year

DE Leonard Little 

DE Victor Adeyanju- (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

DE James Hall- resigned 

DT Clifton Ryan (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

DT Gary Gibson- resigned 1 year

OLB David Vobora (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year

OLB Larry Grant (exclusive rights)- resigned

OLB Paris Lenon- signed with Cardinals 3 years 

OLB Simoni Lawrence- signed with Eagles 

CB Jonathan Wade (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Lions

CB Quincy Butler (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year .47 million

S OJ Atogwe (restricted)- resigned 5 years

S David Roach (exclusive rights)- resigned

Offseason moves:

Rams re-sign S David Roach

Rams re-sign S O.J. Atogwe

Rams re-sign OLB Larry Grant

Rams sign DT Chris Hovan

Rams announce retirement of WR Isaac Bruce

Rams trade OT Alex Barron to Cowboys for OLB Bobby Carpenter 

Rams re-sign OT Alex Barron

Rams acquire S Kevin Payne from Bears for conditional 7th-round pick

Rams trade 3-4 DE Adam Carriker to the Redskins for exchange of 5th-round picks 

Rams re-sign DT Clifton Ryan

Rams re-sign DT Gary Gibson

Rams sign OLB Na’il Diggs 

Rams cut QB Marc Bulger

Rams re-sign CB Quincy Butler 

Rams re-sign DE James Hall

Rams sign CB Kevin Dockery

Rams sign TE Darcy Johnson

Rams re-sign OLB David Vobora 

Rams re-sign RB Kenneth Darby

Rams re-sign G Mark Setterstrom

Rams sign C Hank Fraley

Rams re-sign TE Daniel Fells

Rams sign DT Fred Robbins

Rams sign QB A.J. Feeley

Rams waive TE Derek Fine

Rams tender S O.J. Atogwe

Rams tender DE Victor Adeyanju

Rams tender DT Clifton Ryan

Rams tender OLB David Vobora

Rams tender OLB Larry Grant

Rams tender CB Quincy Butler

Rams tender RB Kenneth Darby

Rams tender S David Roach

Rams claim TE Derek Fine 

 

 

Steve Smith had a career revitalizing year in 2011 and he teamed with Cam Newton for 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns. He ranked 5^th in the league in receiving and proved once again he was one of the league’s premier receivers, even at age 32. He was a free agent after the 2012 season and this extension will add 3 more years onto his existing deal.

However, this deal is absolutely ridiculous. It’s worth 18 million guaranteed from 2013-2015 and up to 36 million max. Steve Smith will be 34-36 years old in that stretch. You don’t guarantee a 34-36 year old wide receiver 18 million dollars, especially one as reliant on speed as Smith. Speed is normally the first thing to go on a receiver. Smith could be a shell of his former self in 2 years or less and he wouldn’t even be halfway through his extension by then.

It’s ridiculous that Steve Smith got more in guaranteed money over 3 years than Reggie Wayne got in total money over 3 years, even though Wayne doesn’t turn 34 until November of the first year of his extension and Smith turns 34 in May of the first year of his extension. And Wayne is much less reliant on speed than Smith and much more consistent. Smith is just a year removed from a 45 catch for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns season. I know Jimmy Clausen was throwing him the ball, but Wayne almost doubled those stats with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball this season. On top of that, Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. In that same time period, Smith has missed 21.

Another contract comparison for Steve Smith is Santana Moss. Moss is not as big of a name as Smith, but like Smith, he’s very reliant on speed and he had similar career numbers with similar mediocre quarterbacking when he signed a 13.5 million dollar deal over 3 years last offseason. Smith has 699 catches for 10278 yards and 59 touchdowns in 11 seasons. Moss had 593 catches for 8558 yards and 52 touchdowns in 10 seasons and signed the contract for ages 32-34, as opposed to 34-36 for Smith. For comparison’s sake, Wayne has 862 catches for 11708 yards and 73 touchdowns in 11 seasons

And the kicker, Moss could be cut this offseason. Moss’ abilities greatly declined last season and he also battled through injuries. A similar thing could happen to Smith any year now, but he’ll be guaranteed way too much money for the Panthers to be able to cut him loose without suffering a huge cap hit. For a team building for the future (and doing so well up to this point), this was a ridiculously stupid move.

Let’s take a look at the 11 receivers who rank in the top 20 all time in receiving yards who have played in the last 10 years (since 2002) to see where their career started to drop off. Smith currently ranks 32^nd and is 1626 yards outside of the top 20 so it’s reasonable to expect him to be on this list someday, but not too deep into the list.

Jerry Rice (Last 1000 yard season at age 40, 93 catches for 1298 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 40, last played at age 42)

Terrell Owens (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 127 catches for 1812 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Isaac Bruce (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 137 catches for 1832 yards and 11 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 34, last played at age 37)

Tim Brown (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 157 catches for 1697 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 35, last played at age 38)

Randy Moss (Last 1000 yard season at age 32, 28 catches for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1 season after age 32, last played at age 33, trying to make a comeback this season)

Marvin Harrison (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 80 catches for 883 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 34, last played at age 36)

Cris Carter (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 81 catches for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Torry Holt (Last season 1000 yard season at age 31, 115 catches for 1518 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 31, last played at age 33)

Jimmy Smith (Last 1000 yard season at age 36, last played at age 36)

Hines Ward (Last 1000 yard season at age 33, 105 catches for 1136 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 33, last played at age 35)

Derrick Mason (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 80 catches for 972 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Of the 11, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37. The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5.

In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season).

Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5

The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. And as far as top 20 receivers go, Steve Smith is probably below average. It’s reasonable to expect him to have one good season (1000 yards) at age 34, in 2013, the first year of his extension, and then 2 mediocre seasons at age 35 and 36 before being done playing at the end of his contract. That’s not worth 18 million guaranteed at all. 

The Panthers would have been much better off letting Smith play out his contract. They’d have almost definitely been able to resign him for much cheaper next offseason. No one else would be willing to pay him this much and they probably would have been able to sign him on a Wayne-like deal (3 years, 17.5 million, 8.5 million guaranteed), which would have been much more reasonable.

Grade: F

 

 

I don’t get this. Steve Smith can’t be Jeremy Maclin insurance because he too will probably miss the first 6 weeks of the season. He can’t be an upgrade in the slot because Jason Avant is already very good there. The only thing this signing could possibly be is a move to piss off the Giants. However, it could backfire and piss off DeSean Jackson if he doesn’t get a long term deal. Jackson is set to make 8 times less this season than the 4 million, 2 million guaranteed, the Eagles just gave Smith.

Grade: F