Spotlight #1: Stanford TE Coby Fleener
Spotlight #2: Oregon TE David Paulson
1st quarter
14:10: Fleener targeted deep, but the ball is a little high, incomplete.
10:50: Fleener with a fantastic block on the outside, completely blocks his man off the play on a stretch run.
10:09: Another strong block by Fleener on the outside, guy disengages at the last second, but he overpowered him for a long time.
9:22: Jonathan Martin, who struggled against USC, allows a quarterback pressure.
8:51: Chase Thomas with a tackle for a loss on LaMichael James, who isn’t going anywhere to this point in the game.
6:48: Andrew Luck with an uncharacteristic bad decision, under pressure by a blitz, doesn’t take the sack, but tries to force the ball out, almost picked, but deflected by Jonathan Martin, the left tackle, who saves a pick.
5:53: Luck picked off when a formerly blitzing linebacker jumps the route. Bad read, bad decision, though he does have a touchdown with an open field tackle after the pick.
2:59: Fleener throws a chip block, keeps going, gets open short, nice hands for the catch, 3 guys close quickly so nothing after the catch.
2:18: Fleener misses a 2nd level block.
0:38: Luck targets Fleener, hits him on the money, but Fleener drops a sure first down.
2nd quarter
13:51: Luck with a touchdown. That’s two big picks in two big games and he’s followed both of them up by touchdown drives. You’re never going to be perfect, no matter who you are, so it’s good to see how he handles adversity.
12:51: Paulson catches one in tight coverage for a first down over the middle. He was also held.
11:52: Paulson with a nice block on a LaMichael James run, gives James some space and you know what James does with space, gone, untouched, 58 yards, after two cuts.
3:36: Paulson with a poor run block, tackle for loss.
2:40: Luck throws short to Fleener, complete.
2:12: Fleener catches a 29 yard completion with a defender draped all over him.
3rd quarter
11:02: Fleener was open deep, a little bit inaccurate, thrown behind him a little, incomplete.
10:14: Fleener open in space, Luck hit him in stride, could have gone for a first after the catch, but dropped. Luck has had 3 drops tonight, each would have been first downs, two of them were on 3rd down, and two of them were by Fleener, his normally sure handed tight end. If it weren’t for those 3 drops, Luck would be 17-24 for around 165 yards (currently at 135), 2 touchdowns, and a pick.
8:51: Luck is strip sacked, Martin allows the sack on a miscommunication.
8:33: Paulson almost with a 13 yard touchdown reception on a low and away ball, but it’s ruled incomplete because the ball just touched the ground. Close.
7:41: James with a 5 yard touchdown on 4th and 2. Oregon lines up quickly and catches Stanford off guard. Stanford is getting outcoached in this one.
4:57: Another drop by one of Luck’s receivers.
3:52: Fleener well covered, but the ball is high anyway. Luck has left a few high tonight.
4th quarter
4:29: Luck throws a pick six. Well, sort of. The ball bounces right off the hands of a Stanford receiver in stride and into the hands of a defender. It should have been a first down completion. Instead, it was a pick six.
1:45: One of Luck’s receivers actually catches a pass and then fumbles it. The fumble looked like a forward pass of about 15-20 yards. This one was horrific. 5 turnovers tonight for Stanford. 2 were Luck’s fault (strip sack, first pick), 3 weren’t.
0:00: Andrew Luck might not have had the best game on the stat sheet. He went 27 of 41 for 271 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 picks in a 53-30 loss, but I’m not dropping his stock after this game for several reasons. His supporting cast wasn’t helping him at all. His receivers dropped 5 passes. Let’s say he completes those 5 passes for 50 yards. He’s 32 for 41 for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Now remember, one of those picks, his 2nd pick, the pick six, was off his receiver’s hands. Take that one away, he’s 32 for 41 for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick. That’s pretty impressive considering he doesn’t have any speed receivers who can get open deep.
Stanford turned the ball over 5 times, 2 picks by Luck, a sack fumble by Luck, and two fumbles by Luck’s teammates. However, as we’ve already established, that 2nd pick was not his fault. That should have been a completion. The sack fumble was partially his fault, but remember, Jonathan Martin blew his protection on that one. Martin, whose stock is sinking after poor games against USC and Oregon, was expecting blitz and tried to pick up the blitz, only there wasn’t a blitz. Instead, his man went unblocked in Luck’s face for the sack. Luck should have done a better job to hold onto the ball, but Martin has to do his job better.
This isn’t to say Luck was perfect. Anyone who thinks Luck is perfect is wrong and should probably drop his stock after this game. He wasn’t perfect. That first pick was a bad mistake. He didn’t see the linebacker dropping in coverage and the linebacker made a great play on a short pass to intercept the ball. Luck also had another near pick at the line of scrimmage. An unblocked blitz hit Luck and instead of tucking away the ball, he tried to get rid of it and needed a pass deflection, oddly enough from Jonathan Martin, to prevent a potential pick at the line of scrimmage. He wasn’t perfect.
However, no one is going to be perfect. I really love how Luck handles adversity. He wasn’t perfect in the USC game either, throwing a potential game losing pick six late. How did he respond? He led a game tying touchdown drive and eventually led them to a win in overtime. After throwing his first pick in this game, he came back and led a touchdown drive.
Stanford’s defense didn’t have a good game at all. Simply put, they couldn’t tackle. Chase Thomas, in particularly, was really disappointing in this game. The potential day 2 prospect should see his stock slip after struggling with Oregon’s speedy playmakers in the open field. Stanford got down pretty big. How did Luck respond? He kept leading touchdown drives to match.
If his teammates didn’t keep fumbling or having pick sixes go off their hands, Luck could have kept this one a lot closer and these weren’t run heavy drives. The run is a huge part of Stanford’s offense, but being down so much, Luck had to do everything himself. He handled the challenge very well and led several touchdown drives despite having his receivers dropping passes and unable to get open deep.
Luck’s favorite target was Griff Whalen. The senior possession receiver had 9 catches for 107 yards. He’s become Luck’s favorite target this season with the speedy Chris Owusu struggling and now injured. Whalen has 45 catches for 641 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season, including 21 catches for 296 yards and 3 scores in Stanford’s last 3 games. He could get drafted late.
The two tight ends, Coby Fleener and Levine Toilolo were his next 2 best receivers. Fleener caught 4 passes for 56 yards. Toilolo had 6 catches for 40 yards. Both of them dropped a couple passes each, including a few key 3rd down conversions. Fleener, a normally sure handed tight end, disappointed in that area tonight. He’s been better with drops earlier this season. He showed his good run blocking in this one as well and good speed and route running, but he needs to catch the ball.
Fleener now has 24 catches for 487 yards and 8 touchdowns in the year. The 6-6 245 receiver is a great red zone threat, a very good athlete, a good route runner, normally sure handed, and an underrated blocker. He has all the tools of a good tight end, but needs to put it all together. Given who his quarterback is, he should be having a bit of a better season. Still, in a weak tight end class, he could be the 2nd tight end off the board. He looks like a 3rd rounder or so.
But back to Luck, he’s not perfect. No quarterback is. You can find something wrong with every quarterback prospect, even ones who go #1. Cam Newton last year was extremely raw. Sam Bradford was coming out of a system that bloats stats and coming off a separated shoulder. Matt Stafford needed to improve decision making. JaMarcus Russell had character issues. Alex Smith had a weak level of competition. Same with David Carr. Eli Manning was never a dominant college quarterback. The list goes on and on.
Luck is better than all of those quarterbacks. I think he’s got the cleanest scouting report of any quarterback since Peyton Manning. He can get a fit frazzled under pressure in the pocket and he has been spoiled by this offensive line. He leaves balls high sometimes. He’s also been spoiled by a good running game, though he’s proven, as he did tonight, that can get it done even when the running game isn’t going. If his defense plays a better game, he wins this one even with all of his receivers making mistakes.
However, he’s one of the smartest college quarterbacks you’ll ever see. He makes all the adjustments at the line of scrimmage. He has decision making that quarterbacks his age just don’t have. He’s had a ton of success with crap at wide receiver. His pocket presence is also rare for his age. He can get frazzled, but he does know when to flee the pocket and he throws on the run extremely well. He’s also got all the intangibles. He’s a fierce competitor and a great leader.
He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he can make all the throws and he’s extremely accurate. He handles adversity with amazing poise. He hasn’t had the strongest level of competition, but he’s played well against Oregon and USC. He’s not perfect, but as I said before, he has the cleanest scouting report of any quarterback since Peyton Manning.
On top other Stanford prospects, Coby Fleener could have his stock fall a bit with the two drops tonight. He looks like a 3rd rounder or so. Chase Thomas should see his stock fall as well. I already had him lower than most places. He’s undersized for a 3-4 outside linebacker and really has trouble with elite left tackles. Matt Kalil dominated him in their matchup against USC.
He’d be best off as a 4-3 outside linebacker, playing in space and not having to take on left or right tackles one on one. He’s not big enough nor does he have the quickness to make up for it to have any sort of success one on one. However, he’s playing 3-4 outside linebacker now so he’ll have to change positions, which is already a risk. This game certainly won’t help his stock. He missed several tackles and was a huge part of a Stanford defense that had a ton of trouble with Oregon’s speed and quickness.
Griff Whalen had had 3 very good games in a row and could be coming onto the map as a late rounder. David DeCastro had another solid game. Like against USC, DeCastro is the only Stanford’s offensive lineman who had a good game against Oregon. Jonathan Martin, the left tackle, should see his stock slip more after this one. He gave up at least one sack and allowed a few more quarterback pressures and he wasn’t even facing that good as a pass rusher.
After struggling with Nick Perry a few weeks ago, Martin is really making people wonder if he can stay at left tackle at the next level. He’s had a great career against weak competition, but he’s struggled with against tougher competition, at least in pass protection. He still looks like a top 15 prospect, but who knows how long that will last? Delano Howell is a mid rounder at safety, but he had a poor game tonight as well. I’ll cut him some slack since it was his first game back from injury, but he’ll have to deal with the injury prone label that has undoubtedly been slapped on him after getting hurt in back to back seasons.
On the Oregon side, David Paulson was the Oregon tight end I was watching. He didn’t catch a pass, but he did almost catch a touchdown. It was a tough catch to make, but he almost made it. He also had a catch wiped out by a penalty. He caught it against tight coverage and with a defender holding him. Oregon only threw 17 times, which partially explains his absence from the stat sheet.
He looked decent, but not great as a run blocker, something he wasn’t asked to do all that much. He looks like a mid to late rounder. He caught 24 passes for 413 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. This year, he has 17 catches for 233 yards and 4 touchdowns in 8 games.
LaMichael James finished with 146 yards on 20 carries. He also scored 3 times and caught a pass for 10 yards. He was one of Oregon’s speedsters that Stanford had a lot of trouble with. He had a 58 yard touchdown run earlier thanks to great blocking and of course, his great speed. In space, he’s deadly, but he’s struggled against defenses that plays with good discipline and don’t allow tons of space.
He did a solid job of running between the tackles tonight and making those 4-7 yard gains inside, but he was still too boom or bust. He had a few negative plays. This game should help his stock a bit, but given his size and his boom or bust nature, as well as his struggles against disciplined defenses (Auburn, LSU). I still have a 3rd round grade on him. Someone might take a chance on him in the 2nd.
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