The financials of this deal have not been released, but it’s a two year deal and I’m expecting it to be a fairly cheap deal. If anyone can bring the former Pro-Bowler back out of Roy Williams, it’s Mike Martz, his coordinator in 2006 when he made the Pro Bowl. The Bears needed help at receiver, especially a bigger receiver like the 6-4 Williams. Unless I find out they overpaid, this is an A.
Grade: A
Brown averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last year and is always a major injury problem, but he’s a great pass blocker and pass catcher and as a backup, injuries won’t be as big of a problem. The Eagles got him really cheap for 1 million over a year.
Grade: A
Bartell missed essentially the entire 2011 season with a broken neck, but he’s been medically cleared by both the Rams’ and the Raiders’ doctors. They Rams just cut him because of his salary and because they intended to go after Cortland Finnegan as their #1 cornerback. However, Bartell had a solid season in 2010 as St. Louis’ #1 cornerback, allowing a 52.1% completion percentage, 5.6 YPA, 2 touchdowns, no picks, and 7 penalties, ranking as ProFootballFocus’ #37 cornerback in the 2010 season. This was a nice, cheap signing for the Raiders (3 million over 1 year) and the Raiders desperately needed cornerback help as they were slated to start a 2011 3rd and 4th rounder at cornerback in 2012. They didn’t have a lot of cap space or draft picks so they almost had to make a move like this.
Grade: A
Harper is getting paid 7.125 million dollars per year in this new deal. Harper is a beast in run support, but a liability somewhat in coverage. I don’t think he’s well rounder enough to earn that amount. The franchise tag value for safeties for 2010 (2011 numbers not yet released) was 6.455 million, calculated by taking the average of the top 5 safety salaries in the league for the 2009 season. Let’s say the franchise tag value for 2011 is around 7.125 million (that might even be on the high side). Is Harper one of the top 5 safeties in the league? My answer to that question is no. However, with this 4 year 28.5 million dollar deal with a whooping 16 million guaranteed, that’s what they’re paying him like.
Grade: D
Middle Linebacker
Alabama
6-3 249
40 time: 4.69
Draft Board overall ranking: #7
Draft Board middle linebacker ranking: #1
Overall rating: 92*
1/23/10: 3-4 middle linebackers prospects rarely go top 10, but McClain might be an exception. At age 21, McClain is drawing some pretty warranted, though still premature, comparisons to Ray Lewis. In 3 years, McClain has 270 tackles, 5 picks, and 8 sacks. Beyond the numbers, I haven’t seen a linebacker as big as him move as well as he does. At 258 pounds, he was able to chase Tim Tebow down from behind and he could run a low 4.6 40. He’s a huge thumper and a great fundamental tackler. 270 tackles in 3 years doesn’t seem like much for a middle linebacker, but when you consider he’s a 3-4 middle linebacker and those 3 years were freshman-junior and not sophomore-senior, that’s impressive. Of all I have seen of him, he hasn’t done one thing one. He drops back into coverage with great skill already at his young age and he’s a former defensive end so he’ll be excellent on blitz packages in the NFL. Because he already has experience in a 3-4, there will be no major learning curve for him when a 3-4 team drafts him, but I do have some concerns about which positions he can play in a 4-3. I’m pretty sure he’ll fit as a 4-3 middle linebacker, but not sure about 4-3 strong outside linebacker.
11/8/09: Rolando McClain has that elite size, speed combination for a middle linebacker (low 4.6 40 at 255+ pounds) and has experience playing in a 3-4 defense and is drawing comparisons to other extremely athletic 3-4 middle linebackers like Patrick Willis and even Ray Lewis. He doesn’t have Willis’ 4.4 speed, but he is bigger and stronger than Willis and the Lewis comparison isn’t far off in terms of a ceiling. He is one of the few players I’ve watched and not seen him do anything technically wrong. He fills holes very well as a 3-4 middle linebacker which is very crucial to plug up the gaps that nose tackles don’t get to. He has amazing size to compliment this strong initial burst which makes him a very tough run blocker. He actually has a chance to get more athletic as he won’t be 21 until next July, roughly 2 or 3 months after the NFL draft so he has a chance to grow even more which is scary. He is a former defensive end, which is not a surprise because of his size, so he understands how to blitz and has 5 sacks in the last two years solely on middle linebacker blitzes which are very rare. He is capable of dropping back in coverage and his size makes him a tough matchup for smaller tight ends and he has the speed to keep up with tight ends in the open field. He doesn’t have perfect coverage skills, but one would hardly expect him to because of his position and his youth. He has 5 interceptions in 3 years which shows that he can flash soft hands as well. He is a real student of the game, like Lewis is, but he doesn’t have Lewis’ fire and explosion. He’s not a mean passionate player like Lewis is. He’s not a hard hitter, but he does have good fundamentals on his tackles, but he’s not going to knock the ball lose with jaw dropping hits. He’s a tackling machine that can get to guys in the open field and takes excellent routes to the ball. He had 91 tackles last season, which is a lot for a 3-4 middle linebacker. Brandon Spikes is the bigger name, but I would take McClain in a heartbeat over him if I were a 3-4 team and I would also draft McClain over Spikes if I were a 4-3 team because I believe he can be a big explosive middle linebacker in a 4-3 like Brian Urlacher if he has the right coaching.
NFL Comparison: Bart Scott
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Guard
Florida State
6-2 299
Draft board overall prospect rank: #78
Draft board overall guard rank: #7
Overall rating: 72 (3rd round)
40 time: 5.22
4/20/11: There’s never been any question about Rodney Hudson’s technique. Ever since he stepped on Florida State’s campus as a freshman, he’s been a starter and, in my opinion, Florida State’s best technician. 4 years later, he might be the best technician of any interior lineman in this class. Danny Watkins might have something to say about that.
His problem is his size and his athleticism. He has short arms and played in the 280s last year, which is very small, even for an interior lineman. Because of that lack of size, there’s been a lot of talk that he might have to move to center, which is a projection as he didn’t play much there in college, which hurts his stock.
He has bulked up to 299 for The Combine, but the point is he played in the 280 and considering his small frame and short arms, he might be maxed out. He hasn’t looked terrible in drills at 299, but it’s clear that’s not his true playing weight. He’s best suited for a zone blocking scheme, where power and strength isn’t a necessity.
As for his technique, he gets low and uses his hands well for someone of his age. He plays with a solid base and great leverage so he can matchup with guys who are a little bigger than him, but some much bigger guys, guys like Phil Taylor in Senior Bowl practices, he’s going to have a really tough time keeping them out of the backfield and double teams probably will be needed.
NFL Comparison: Eric Steinbach
Trade for Seahawks: We knew this was going to happen. New offensive line coach Alex Gibbs didn’t think Sims would fit into his scheme and he basically told him not to show up to camp until a trade was worked out. Anytime you do something like that, you’re pretty much guaranteeing you’ll get less value than you deserve because teams know, if a deal doesn’t get done, you’ll pretty much have to cut that player and then he can be had for free, but I credit the Seahawks for getting a 5th rounder for him. In an offseason where a starting cornerback gets you a 4th rounder, a star wide receiver gets you a 3rd and a 4th rounder, and a franchise quarterback gets you a 2nd and a 3rd, getting a 5th rounder for a starting caliber guard that doesn’t fit your scheme is not a bad. Decent trade.
Grade: B
Trade for Lions: Since this trade went down, all I am hearing is pretty much this “Yeeaahh, Lions, getting an offensive line upgrade for a 5th rounder, now we can draft Ndamukong Suh with the 2nd overall pick. Yeaahh! ESPN says Suh is the greatest thing in the history of the world. Yeaaahhh! Defensive Tackles! Patch work offensive lines! Yeaaaaahhh!”
I will agree that this pick makes it more likely that the Lions take Suh, but that’s not a good thing. Rob Sims is a decent guard. Jeff Backus is still a horrible left tackle. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Backus is not the guy you want protecting Stafford in his developmental years. The Lions should take Okung anyway, move Backus to right guard, and keep their defensive line the way it is. I’d rather have a patch work defensive line and a stud left tackle than a patch work offensive line and a stud defensive tackle.
With Okung, Sims, Raiola, Backus, and Cherilus, that’s a very good offensive line. You’ve already gotten Stafford some good receivers, surround him with a great offensive line like that and use a 3rd or 4th rounder on another running back to pair with Kevin Smith behind that offensive line and you have, at least, a top 15 offense next year with a ton of potential for the future. Then use 2 picks in the first 4 rounds on defensive backs and your late rounders on depth front 7 guys and you have a fairly solid defense for the future. That’s a 7 or 8 win team next year and, with a few more smart drafts, that’s a 10, 11, 12 win team in 2 or 3 years.
You take Suh, you get an upgrade over the already decent Corey Williams at defensive tackle and a somewhat more decent front 7. Stafford takes 35-40 sacks again with Backus at left tackle and the scrubs they had at right guard last year still starting. Your offense struggles, Stafford either doesn’t develop right and gets David Carr syndrome or gets hurt. Your defense is a little bit stronger than it would have been with Corey Williams instead of Ndamukong Suh, but it doesn’t matter. You’re still a 5, 6, 7 win team spending 100 million dollars on the defensive tackle position and 73 million on a borderline starter quarterback and then in 4 or 5 years, you probably have to start all over because Stafford’s salary is too large to justify at his current rate of production. Not to mention, for the most part, offensive tackles are safer than defensive tackles.
As for what I think they will do, I’d say it’s 50-45 in favor of Okung, with that extra 5 percent going to the likelihood that they trade down and take a defensive back with the 5th-9th pick. That’s going to be very hard to do, but would not be an awful idea, granted they use the 2nd round pick they pick up to draft a left tackle like Roger Saffold or Jared Veldheer. It would certainly be better than tying up 65 million dollars in a defensive tackle. I just don’t think that’ll happen. Trading out of the top 5 is very hard to do, let alone the top 3 when there’s no franchise quarterbacks teams feel they need to move up for. The Browns and Bills know, after the Donovan McNabb trade, that Jimmy Clausen is pretty much guaranteed to be there at 5 where the Chiefs draft so there’s no need to move up to 2 to get him. The only possible trades I could see would be Kansas City moving up to get Okung, not likely, or the Redskins moving up to get Suh, as crazy as it sounds, it’s more likely than the Chiefs moving up. Trading down though, in terms of overall value, might be the smartest move because they’d pick up a 2010 and a 2011 2nd rounder in the process, at least, and still get a top 10 pick.
At the end of the day, I still think the Lions will go with Okung, seeing the greater value they can get out of him and I will continue to choose that in my mock draft until I hear something that says otherwise.
Grade: If they still draft Okung: A
If they draft Suh: D
Tight End
Florida Atlantic
6-5 244
Draft board overall prospect rank: #136
Draft board overall tight end rank: #5
Overall rating: 61 (late 4th)
40 time: 4.51
3/29/11: Rob Housler was one of the big surprises of The Combine for me. After being listed at 6-5 215 by ESPN (very small for a tight end), Housler weighed in at 244. Turns out, after further research, ESPN was just wrong. Other sources had him in the 240s the whole time. What surprised everyone was his 4.51 40 and 37 inch vertical. He also impressed in the drills. This has moved him into early day 3 consideration.
Size and speed were his issues going into The Combine and he quelled those with his measurable. There’s never been any questions about his ability to catch the football. He caught 39 balls for 629 yards and 4 touchdowns last year for Florida Atlantic and 32 catches for 529 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2008. He redshirted in 2009, allegedly because the team had enough talent at tight end on the roster and wanted to preserve Housler for 2010. There is some mysterious surrounding that.
His problem is blocking. He’s not a good inline blocker and that’s coming from the tape, not just coming from his size. Part of the reason why I believed he could have been as skinny as he was is because he blocks poorly. However, he is a strong route runner and doesn’t drop a lot of passes. He’s a vertical threat and can move in the seam. He’s best suited to be an h-back, but I wouldn’t have a problem with him as my primary tight end regardless of scheme. He’s a little one dimensional, but that’s what specialty players like blocking tight ends are for.
NFL Comparison: Evan Moore
Tight End
Arizona
6-6 258
40 time: 4.65
Draft board overall prospect rank: #38
Draft board tight end rank: #2
Overall rating: 80*
3/27/10: There were rumors that, after back surgery that caused him to miss all of last season, he was still not healthy. I think he proved that wrong because, simply put, you can’t run a 4.65 at 6-6 258 with a bad back. The injury, and the rust that comes along with not playing a whole year because of injury, are still issues, but this guy could have been a first rounder if he had a good year this year and there’s no doubting he could be a steal for a team in the 2nd round. I think he’s clearly the 2nd best tight end in this draft class, at least in my mind, because of Dennis Pitta’s lack of elite athleticism and upside and Aaron Hernandez’s small frame and ability to run block.
1/18/10: Surprisingly enough, the top two tight ends in this draft class didn’t play all season. Gronkowski has been amazing statistically in his career, but he hasn’t given scouts much of a statistical sample. He wasn’t a full time tight end as a freshman, he missed 3 games with mono as a sophomore, and back surgery cost him his entire junior season. However, what I do like about his state that is good going forward if his career 16 YPC, meaning he was extremely athletic and tough to bring down in the open field because its very unlike a quarterback is repeatedly throwing to a tight end 16 yards down field. Also 16 of his 75 catches in his short career were for touchdowns showing once again his physical dominance. Good ability in the open field and end zone dominance are a very good combination for a young tight end. He’s a big moving target at 6-6 270 and can run a 4.7 40 assuming his back is fully healed. He has football and sports in general in his blood. And he’s still 20 so his upside is huge. He would have been the top tight end in 2011 had he returned to school and been healthy so I’m a bit puzzled as to why he didn’t. This year he’s looking at anywhere from 2nd to 4th tight end off the board depending on how scouts see him bounce back from injury in workouts. That would mean 2nd or 3rd round range for him.
Injury Update (1/15/10): Surprise, Gronkowski has declared as a 20 year old junior coming off of major back surgery. He’s extremely athletic, but major surgery plus limited playing experience in college (he also missed 3 games as a sophomore with mono) could drop him into the 3rd or even 4th round behind Jermaine Gresham, Dennis Pitta, and Aaron Hernandez.
Injury update: Gronkowski will miss the rest of the 2009 season after having back surgery which means that he’s most likely not declaring in the 2010 draft. Gronkowski is only a 20 year-old junior still and if he comes back and is his old self he could compete to be the top tight end off the board in 2011, but for now, I’m removing him from my 2010 scouting reports list and he will not be in my next edition of the big board top 100.
Rob Gronkowski is a terrific athlete. He played both football and basketball in high school and comes from an athletic background. 3 of his brothers played or are playing college sports, one of whom, Dan, was drafted by the Lions in this past NFL draft. His youngest brother Glenn is a senior in high school and likely will get an athletic scholarship. His dad played college football at Syracuse and both his grandfather and his great-grandfather were cyclists. His great-grandfather competed in the 1924 Olympics. As for Rob, he has the size at tight end that NFL offensive coordinators dream about. He’s 6-6 265 and just turned 20 in May. He has room to grow and should be able to put on about 10-15 pounds more of muscle. He compliments this size with very good hands and could play wide receiver if he was faster. He should run the 40 in the high 4.6s, low 4.7s. Despite his size, he’s not a very good run blocker. He takes weird approaches and gets bulldozed over by defenders and doesn’t hold his blocks long enough. His route running could use some work. He also tends to not run 100% out there at all times and relies on his natural athleticism, rather than having an NFL caliber work ethic. One of the things I like about him is his high touchdown rate, as well as his high yards per catch. In his two seasons at Arizona, 21.3% of his catches were for touchdowns, an amazing number even for a tight end. He also has averaged 15.96 yards per catch, which is very good for any receiver, especially a tight end. It has been statistically proven that pass catchers who have higher yards per catch and touchdown per catch rates have better NFL career. He is a very good YAC guy for a tight end, though I wouldn’t say he has break away speed. His size makes him tough to tackle in the open field. Still, all the athletic tools are there for him to be a very nice tight end in the NFL. If he’s coached well, he could be a Pro-Bowl caliber all-around tight end.
NFL Comparison: Marcedes Lewis
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Defensive End/Rush Linebacker
North Carolina
6-4 265
Draft board overall prospect rank: #5
Draft board overall defensive end rank: #1
Overall rating: 96 (Elite)
40 time: 4.58
4/17/11: Cutting his 40 time to 4.58 was just the start. Quinn had an amazing workout after having to sit out all year. If he had played last year, he could have easily gone #1 this year. Scouts have concerns about his ability to drop into coverage, but he’s only 20 and he’s athletic enough to learn.
3/16/11: Robert Quinn could have been the #1 overall pick in this draft if he wasn’t suspended for something stupid by the corrupt NCAA. He had 11 sacks as a 19 year old true sophomore in 2009 for North Carolina. Dez Bryant proved last year that you can miss an entire season (Bryant basically missed all of 2009) and still have a productive rookie year. Quinn’s stock will take a minor hit with the suspension and he will be the #2 defensive end to Da’Quan Bowers and could actually fall out of the top 10, but he has the upside to be the best end in this class.
He proved he was in shape at The Combine. He didn’t light the world on fire with his measurable like he was projected to but a 4.67 at 6-4 265 is still pretty impressive. I don’t think he’s got character problems with the suspension. He got suspended for taking “improper benefits.” There’s no such thing as “improper benefits” in the NFL. He’s got a good motor on the field and he’s a tough gritty kid who has survived a brain tumor that could have killed him.
Speaking of that brain tumor, that won’t be a long term issue. He’s a very good athlete with long arms, good quickness, and a very quick first step. He struggles a bit against the run for his size, but he’s got good chase speed and just needs some work with his technique. I don’t know if he’s an ideal fit for the 3-4, though teams will probably look at him as a 3-4 linebacker with his technique. I didn’t think Vernon Gholston was an ideal fit for a 3-4 coming out of Ohio State a few years ago and look at him now, though there were probably other issues in play there.
In a 4-3, he’s got room to add weight to his frame with his long arms. I think he could play into the 270s and still maintain his explosiveness, but he’d have a real problem dropping into coverage in the 270s. Not that he doesn’t already.
He’s not a fluid coverage player, another reason why I don’t think he fits in a 3-4 well. He has the athleticism to turn into a good 3-4 player, but it’s a big risk. Plus, you just shouldn’t use a top 10 pick on a player and convert him into a 3-4 linebacker if he hasn’t already had experience playing linebacker. The last team to do that was the Jets with Vernon Gholston. Larry English and Robert Ayers are also first round picks turned rush linebacker busts in recent years. Clay Matthews isn’t, but that’s because he played linebacker in college.
NFL Comparison: Will Smith
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