Red Bryant is a good run stuffer, ranking 12^th against the run by ProFootballFocus among 4-3 ends, but he only has 2 career sacks over 4 seasons so 35 million over 5 years with 14.5 million guaranteed seems too rich. Earlier this week it sounded like he was going to get a deal similar to Brandon Mebane, who got 25 million over 5 years and 9 million guaranteed last offseason. That seems like a more fair deal. The Seahawks overpaid for a guy whose inability to get after the quarterback had him ranked 48^th among 4-3 defensive ends by ProFootballFocus.

Grade: C

 

 

Ray McDonald is not even a starter for the 49ers. He’s a depth 3^rd down lineman who only has 5 sacks in his 4-year career. Apparently pass rushing specialists who can’t get to the quarterback are worth 20 million over 5 years with 7 million guaranteed.

Grade: F

 

 

It’ll be interesting to see how Ray Edwards does without the Williams wall and Jared Allen next to him. Edwards has 16.5 sacks in the last two seasons, 20.5 if you include the 4 he had in just 2 playoff games in 2009. However, I don’t think he’s a #1 defensive end on a good pass rushing team. The good thing for Atlanta is, they didn’t pay him like he was one. This deal is worth 30 million over 5 years with just 11 million guaranteed. That’s a very cheap rate for a passing rushing #2 end who will line up across from John Abraham.

He’s also only 26 still and there’s a chance he continues to improve even without all the help he had in Minnesota and becomes a legitimate 10+ sack end, which will make this deal look like a bargain. Hard to believe the Panthers gave Charles Johnson 72 million over 6 years with 30 million guaranteed and the Falcons only gave Edwards 30 million over 5 with 11 million guaranteed.

Grade: A

 

By Derek Arnold

Former University of Maryland Terrapin Josh Wilson was the hero in Houston, saving the Ravens from what would have arguably been the worst collapse in an important game in the team’s fifteen year history.  The Ravens blew a 28-7 lead, and were up by 15 entering the game’s final period.  However, as has been their M.O. this season, no lead was safe…

Two ESPN graphics detailing the Ravens’ fourth quarter collapses looked to be prescient and incredibly accurate as the Texans scored a touchdown and a 2-point conversion with just 21 seconds remaining in regulation to force the extra period.  With the way the Ravens defense played over the final quarter, overtime looked to be just a formality in what was to be another Ravens’ collapse and Texans’ come-back win.

Luckily, Josh Wilson stepped up to preserve the win for the good guys.

Let’s dive into this one a bit…

No blowout

With 14:30 to go in the third quarter, this game looked to finally be the complete dominant game that Ravens fans have been waiting for all season.  The offense had already put up 21 points, and touchdowns on two of their final three possessions of the half.  The defense had held the Texans’ high-powered attack to just a single score, a touchdown on a hurry-up drive to end the second quarter.  And kick returner David Reed set the franchise record for longest kickoff return with his 103-yard touchdown to start the second half.  Life was good in Purple Paradise.

Slowly but surely though, the wheels came off.  Again.

Letting them back in it

In fact, Reed’s kick return touchdown may have been a bit of a blessing and a curse.  Instead of a two-score game, the Houston Texans suddenly found themselves trailing by a full three touchdowns.  With any minute hopes of postseason play – and likely, their coach’s job – fading before their eyes, they developed a “nothing to lose” mentality.  They were forced to throw the ball, and be aggressive.  And with weapons like Houston has – wide receiver Andre Johnson, running back Arian Foster, tight end Owen Daniels – they are very capable of putting up points in bunches, which is just what they did.

On the ensuing possession after the kick return, Houston faced 4th-and-3 at the Ravens’ 41.  In a 21-7 game, they probably punt there.  Trailing 28-7 though, they were forced to go for it.  They converted, and seven plays later a Neil Rackers field goal made the score 28-10.

Then came the wonderful Cam Cameron “playing from ahead” offense

The Ravens next offensive play was a Ray Rice run for no gain.  After that, a nine-yard sack of Joe Flacco.  Two plays, and the drive was effectively over, as they faced a 3rd-and-19 at their own 13-yard line.  A 12-yard pass to Rice would be the Ravens’ final play of the quarter until he ran for 4 yards on the period’s last play.

In the entire third quarter, the Ravens offense ran 4 plays (not including the punt) for 7 yards.

Still, they led 28-13, so things were looking alright.

Defense gassed

Although they were on the field for about 13 minutes in the third quarter, the Ravens’ defense gave up only two field goals.  However, all that time on the field would result in some cumulative fatigue.  As a result, those third quarter field goals turned into fourth quarter touchdowns for Houston.

The offense again sputtered, picking up just two first downs before giving the ball back to the Texans. Five minutes and fifteen plays later, the score was 28-20.

The Ravens’ defense was struggling, and obviously needed a break before being sent back out on the field.

Then things really got weird.

More odd clock management

Last year, Ravens fans were frustrated with the way John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco managed timeouts and the clock in the final minutes of halves and games.  The Ravens’ two-minute drill was terribly ineffective in 2009, and many of us felt that just from having played Madden for a few years,  we better understood how to manipulate the game clock to our advantage than the Ravens did.

Obviously, that’s ridiculous.  But so is the way Harbaugh used…and continues to use…timeouts.

For whatever reason, those situations have been more rare in 2010 – the Ravens haven’t had too many occasions where they’ve had to run a two-minute drill and put up points. The first Pittsburgh game comes to mind, but that’s about it.

However, the Ravens’ coaches’ questionable decision-making with regards to clock management have reared their ugly head in other areas.  Last week, it was Cam Cameron’s decision to pass the ball on 2nd-and-5 in the game’s final minutes, resulting in Troy Polamalu’s sack-fumble and a Steelers win.  Last night, a similar situation presented itself.

The Ravens led 28-20 with 2:58 remaining in the game, and faced a 3rd down and 2 at the Texans’ 44-yard line.  Houston had just burned their final timeout of the half.  A first down here would seal the game for the Ravens.  However, failing that, just keeping the clock running would be the next best thing – a 1-yard run would result in a 4th down, but the Ravens could have taken the clock down to about 2:10, and then either used a timeout or taken a 5-yard delay of game penalty, punted, and pinned the Texans deep with two minutes to drive the length of the field, and – at best – a single stop of the clock from the two-minute warning.

Ravens Nation was screaming – RUN THE BALL.

Did Cam run the ball? Of course not. Incomplete pass, clock stops, and now Houston takes possession with 2:42 to go.  They would go 95 yards and score with, again, 21 seconds left.  The Ravens could have taken 40 seconds off the clock by running on 3rd-and-2.  You do the math.

When asked after the game about the decision to pass, John Harbaugh responded with some nonsense about “not thinking about the clock there,” and that “we wanted the first down.”  Really coach, NOT thinking about the clock at all? Your biggest ally at that point in the game?  Yeah, that’s not asinine or anything.

And did the rules change? You can’t get a first down by running?

“It’s all Cam’s fault,” is still a popular mantra in Baltimore today, even with the Ravens’ win.

Taking them with you?

As odd as the decision to run the ball on 3rd-and-2 was, the coaches’ use of timeouts down the stretch was even stranger.  As mentioned, the defense was GASSED.  They had nothing left.

Greg Mattison is being criticized today for his 3-man rush late in the game today.  There is some merit to that, however, there are other circumstances to examine.  It’s widely understood that the most exhausting thing to do in football is rush the passer.  Matt Schaub threw 62 passes in the game, the great majority of which were in the second half.  The Ravens didn’t have anybody with enough energy to blitz.  This was never more painfully obvious than when, with 1:07 to go, Schaub scrambled for eight yards to the Ravens’ 35.  On the play, Jarret Johnson was giving chase, but Schaub – who runs something like a 5.5 40 – looked like Mike Vick running from the tired J.J.

The defense had nothing left.  What the team did have left was timeouts.  Two of them, to be exact.  Twice in the final minute the Texans stopped the clock – once by running out of bounds and once with a spike.  Two opportunities for the Ravens to use a timeout and give their defense a breather while not “helping the Texans out” at all by stopping the clock.  They chose not to, for whatever reason.

I’m shocked that one of the players – especially an Ed Reed or Ray Lewis – didn’t look around at their exhausted teammates and say “f this, coach,” and take a timeout on their own accord.

Now, with 21 seconds remaining, the score is 28-26.  A stop on the two-point conversion try can still win the game.  With 21 seconds, any dreams of having time after the kickoff to move down the field and get into field goal range are out of the question.  These timeouts can do absolutely no good after this play. You can’t take them with you into overtime.

WHY NOT CALL A TIMEOUT AND REGROUP FOR THE 2-POINT TRY? YOU CAN STILL WIN THE GAME HERE!

This decision still boggles my mind.

The real hero

With all due respect to Wilson, perhaps the real hero of the game is Cory Redding.  Redding stood at midfield before the overtime period, and correctly guessed “tails” on the coin flip.  Had the Ravens lost the toss, I have no doubt that we would be talking about an 8-5 team today.  The utterly pooped Ravens’ defense was not going to go back out there and stop Houston, not without at least a small break.

Tails gave them that break.

With a chance to go win the game, the offense of course failed again.  They did at least pick up a first down and hold the ball for three minutes.  Apparently, that was all the defense needed.

In the two plays that they were on the field in OT, the Ravens got great pressure with four rushers on Schaub.  It was Haloti Ngata harassing him in his own end zone that caused the errant pass from Schaub that ended the game.

Thanks for the drops

This recap is getting a bit too lengthy, so I’ll cut it short and save some other observations (terrible O-line play, great special teams) for a later post.  However, any analysis of this game can’t ignore the fact that the Texans started the game unable to catch a cold.

Texans’ receivers dropped five or six passes in the first half, which went a huge way in allowing the Ravens to build the 21 point lead that, in the end, they needed every bit of.

Thanks for being terrible at catching, Texans.

Now the Ravens come back home to face the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, who are finally getting healthy and seem to be hitting their stride as the season comes to a close.

Fun fun.

http://www.bmorebirdsnest.com/

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By Derek Arnold 

Did we just witness the maturation of Joe Flacco as an NFL quarterback?

That’s what many of the talking sports heads in the media are saying this morning – that Joe, by virtue of his game winning touchdown drive during the final minute of yesterday’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, has now vaulted into the upper echelon of professional signal callers.

Indeed, it was a thing of beauty.  Flacco and the Ravens offense went 40 yards on just four plays in 36 seconds of game clock.  On the drive, they never faced a 3rd down situation.  Hell, the only faced a single second down, and even that was just second-and-one.  There wasn’t even the drama of a third-and-long or fourth-and-game situation as Joe faced down the beast that has been his nemesis since he entered the league, Dick LeBeau’s stifling Steeler defense, and came out on top.

On the play, T.J. Houshmandzadeh ran a great route, faking to the sideline as Flacco pump-faked, before turning towards the end zone and potential victory.  When he got there, a win was indeed waiting for him, in the form of a gorgeous pass that he ran under and hauled in, in the process sending all those rabid Steeler fans home from Heinz Field using their terrible towels to wipe away their copious tears.

Joe was finally able to do what Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have been doing to the Ravens for years – breaking their hearts with a last-second drive to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  That it happened at Heinz Field, which has for so long been a house of horrors for B’More, makes it all the more satisfying.  It was the Ravens’ first victory in Pittsburgh since 2006, and it not only served to keep their hated rivals from starting the season at 4-0 and with a commanding lead in the AFC North, but it catapulted them to first place in the division and gave them an early tiebreaker over the Steelers.

The game had, to that point, been the prototypical Ravens/Steelers match that we’ve come to expect stomach ulcers from each and every time these two clash heads.  The Steelers took an early lead on a Rashard Mendenhall run at the goalline, and the Ravens responded with a Willis McGahee touchdown run of their own.  From that point on, midway through the second quarter, no more than four points would separate the teams at any point during the game.  The Ravens led by a score of 10-7 at halftime, and by the same margin after the third quarter came to a close.

It felt all too familiar.  Leading after the second and third quarters means absolutely nothing, and far too many times we’ve seen Pittsburgh dominate the final quarter and make the plays down the stretch to eke out a win.  And when Mendenhall scored his second touchdown with just over seven minutes remaining, it seemed the game was taking a twist we’ve all seen far too many times before.  Taking a 14-10 lead had Pittsburgh and their fans, with that defense playing at home, feeling comfortable.  A bit too comfortable, as it turned out.

The Ravens took possession and went 65 yards on 10 plays on the ensuing drive…problem was, they needed 67 yards.  Third-and-goal and fourth-and-goal from the Pittsburgh 2-yard line both resulted in incomplete passes, and AGAIN it looked like the Steelers would survive.

They were too conservative on their ensuing possession though, afraid to let Charlie Batch take any chances that might result in a turnover.  Aided by a penalty, the Steelers went three-and-out, and Daniel Sepulveda punted from the back of his own end zone.  Another penalty, this one during the punt, moved the ball to the Pitt 40 yard-line for Flacco’s penultimate drive.  A drive that Ravens fans will be remembering fondly for many years to come.

For the first time in the Flacco-Harbaugh era, the Ravens won at Heinz Field.  And you couldn’t write a more perfect script of how it came to pass.

Give credit to Todd Heap and Ray Rice on that final play as well.  Both picked up Steelers’ blitzers from Flacco’s blind side, Heap coming all the way across the formation to stonewall Troy Polamalu.

The Ravens defense had another strong day, holding Rashard Mendenhall to just 79 yards on 25 carries, an average of just 3.16.  His longest carry on the day was 11 yards, lending credence to the theory that last week’s gashing by Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis was more a matter of effort than ability.  The run defense is fine.

As for the secondary, they were again fairly untested, but held up well.  Charlie Batch took his shots down the field, but connected on only one, a deep ball down the right sideline to Antwaan Randle El that set up the Steelers’ first score.  He tried Mike Wallace deep several times in the fourth quarter, only to be foiled each time by cornerback Lardarius Webb, who had a spectacular game.  On one, Wallace got both hands on the ball in the end zone before Webb stripped it out and nearly came away with the interception himself.

Still, some interceptions would be nice to see from this group at some point soon (even if Haloti Ngata is about to destroy you if you catch it…FABIAN!)

Speaking of Ngata, he was a beast Sunday, racking up a game-high 8 solo tackles, and team-high 11 total.  He made all of Heinz Field hold their breath, and all Ravens fans exclaim an “ooooooooh” when he planted Mendenhall about 3 feet deep into the turf on one short run.  Ngata also registered a sack, as did Terrell Suggs, who played a strong game despite drawing double teams for most of the day.  Suggs’ sack was big because it pushed the Steelers back on a long field goal attempt from Jeff Reed, and the kick ended up clanging off the right upright.

“Skippy,” as he is known in Pittsburgh, deserves special mention here.  Thank you, Jeff Reed, for going out and getting hammered Saturday night, or whatever else you did to make you forget how to kick inside your own stadium.  Reed missed two field goals Sunday, both going towards the open end of Heinz Field, which continues to prove impossible to master.  The swirling winds on that side of the field also pushed an early Billy Cundiff attempt wide right.

It was also nice to see the Steelers being the ones beating themselves for most of the day as well, as opposed to it being the Ravens as we’re used to witnessing.  While the penalties were fairly even throughout most of the game, in the end the tally was 7 for 52 yards for the Ravens, and 11 for 88 for Pittsburgh.  Three of Pittsburgh’s came in the final 5:03 though, making them extra costly.  Some Steelers fans are complaining about the refs this morning, so to them I’ll just say this – doesn’t feel so good when your team is on the short end, does it?

The other argument from yinzers and yinzer-wannabes alike will be this: “We didn’t have Ben.”

Well, that’s true.  But Ben doesn’t play defense.  TROY was out there. So were James, and Lamarr (both of whom were held extremely quiet by the Ravens’ offensive line all day).

“But the game wouldn’t have been that close if BEN was there.”

Fact: Roethlisberger has played in 4 of the 6 Ravens/Steelers games in the Harbugh-Flacco era.

Fact: ONE of those games was decided by more than four points.  Stop assuming that it would have been a blowout if #7 was on the field.  History doesn’t back that up.

Anyway, it was an awesome, awesome win for our Ravens, and it sets them up wonderfully moving forward. 

http://www.bmorebirdsnest.com/ 

 

By Derek Arnold 

Some people get all pumped up at the prospect of another hard-hitting, close-fought, drag out brawl between these two hated division rivals.  These people bask in the mutual hatred shared by the two fanbases, drinking in every last ounce of disdain as kickoff approaches. 

Usually, I’m one of those people.  For some reason this time feels a little different, though.

I can sense a few reasons for this.

One, two of the marquee guys on the teams won’t be participating Sunday, as the Steelers are without Ben Roethlisberger, and the Ravens without Ed Reed.

Second, it’s still very early in the season, so the stakes don’t seem quite as high as normal.

Mostly though, it probably has something to do with the classic psychological evaluation of people that states that we are more upset by negative outcomes than we are made joyous by positive ones.  That is, if you lost $1000, you’d be more angry/sad than you would be happy if you found that same $1000.

That’s how Ravens/Steelers feels this week.  The prospect of losing to Pittsburgh (again…Harbaugh/Flacco are a dismal 1-4 so far against them) is more vomit-inducing to me than a win over them is exciting.  This is in no small part due, I’m sure, to the fact that the Steelers are playing with house money at this point.  Even the most optimistic Steeler fan would have told you that they would be ecstatic to be 3-1 to start the season, and that the team should be more than satisfied with a 2-2 record out of the gates while their franchise quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, served his suspension.  Now, they face the very real prospect of going a ridiculous 4-0 to start 2010.  The only thing standing in the way of that outcome is, of course, our Baltimore Ravens.

Should the Ravens win this game, it will be as much a relief as a reason to celebrate.  Going up against a team that is on what amounts to their fourth-string quarterback is a situation from which any true contender should emerge victorious much more often than not.  As for your nearest yinzer-wannabe, sure they’ll come back with “yeah, but we didn’t have BEN.”  While a fair point, the fact of the matter will be that the teams will sport equal 3-1 records, and “game on” moving forward.

Lose, and all hell breaks loose.  The Ravens will find themselves in a two-game hole in the AFC North after only four weeks of football.  At 1-2 in the division, their best case scenario would be to end the year at 4-2 against AFCN opponents – hardly a lock to win the division crown.  The Steelers would have put together a 4-0 record with basically a high school offense.  And the aforementioned towel wavers?  Don’t think we will ever hear the end of it, should Charlie freaking Batch figure out a way to do enough Sunday to lead his team to a victory over the “powerful” Ravens’ defense.

Doesn’t that latter scenario sound fun?  See what I mean now about a loss being more “bad” than a win is “good?”

Anyway, all that said, how do I feel about the game itself?

Uneasy, at best.

We all know that when the Steelers and Ravens match up, you can pretty much throw the stats and records out the window.  However, this year, one stat that is too glaring to completely omit is that of the Ravens having the 22nd-ranked rushing defense in the league.  Add to that Pittsburgh’s #3 rushing attack, and the potential for the Steelers to have more success on the ground against the Ravens than they have in nearly a decade seems all too real…on paper, anyway.

In reality, the Ravens defense hasn’t been all THAT bad.  Ladainian Tomlinson ripped off a couple 21-yard scampers in Week 1 that padded his stats, but was otherwise fairly well contained.  Shonn Green did nothing in the same game.  In Week 2, Cedric Benson, who destroyed the Ravens in 2009, was bottled up nicely.  And yes, Peyton Hillis ran wild last week, but again, most of his yards came on a few big runs, and also against Greg Mattison’s “passing situation” sub packages.  The now departed Trevor Pryce was a big part of those sub packages that couldn’t stop Hillis, but he seems to have no problem trashing his former teammates, guys he was lining up with not even a week ago.  Apparently the #1 clause of any New York Jets contract reads “must be a jerk at all times.”

The Ravens will be better against the run in Pittsburgh.  They’ll get Terrence “Mount” Cody suited up for his first NFL action, and that, along with the need for redemption for a prideful unit, will be enough to keep Rashard Mendenhall from getting anything significant going.

With task #1 accomplished, they can focus on Charlie Batch.  Batch threw three touchdowns last week in Tampa, but two of those should have been interceptions.  Along with the one pick he did throw, that would be a nice 1 TD/3 INT day.  Batch will make mistakes Sunday.  However, if potential interceptions clang off defenders hands the way they did for him last week, or the way they did for Ravens’ defenders in Week 2 in Cincinnati, it will be another nail biter down-to-the-wire type game at the convergence of the three rivers.  Double up on the stick-em, Zibby.

On offense, the Ravens will have to play their best game of the season to date.  And they’ll have to get off the bus ready to play.  In the three games so far, the Ravens’ BEST first offensive play has been Ray Rice for 3 yards (twice).  The other first play was the sack-fumble in New York.  The SECOND offensive play last week should have resulted in six points the other way.  The Pittsburgh crowd will be amped, and the defense will be champing at the bit to make Joe Flacco’s life a living hell.  This lackadaisical, dazed, slow-start business has to stop.  It’s been a disturbing characteristic of the Ravens’ offense for far too long now, and if it rears its ugly head again in Pittsburgh this week, the way that defense is playing, things could get very ugly very quickly.

If you see the Ravens’ offense moseying up to the line of scrimmage with 6-8 seconds on the play clock, and by the time they put the requisite man in motion, Flacco is snapping the ball at or near 0, so the Steelers can time their jumps off the ball…you might as well just turn the T.V. off, because they don’t stand a chance.

Cam Cameron needs to get the plays in quickly, Joe needs to relay them efficiently, and the team needs to be lined up and ready to go with 10 or more seconds on the play clock.  At that point, Flacco has to be able to survey the Pittsburgh defense, attempt a pre-snap read, and make the necessary adjustments.

Eight men in the box? Audible out of that running play.

Big puffy-black-haired “troll” looking dude bouncing around like an idiot on the left side of the line? Slide the protection left and send the right side receiver deep against man coverage.

In short, Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron need to ENGAGE in the chess match that Dick LeBeau and the Steelers’ defense are playing, instead of simply letting them flip the board over, kick sand in their faces, and shove rooks up their noses (you’ll excuse my mixed metaphors).

Against Pittsburgh’s defense, the pre-snap battles are nearly as important as the post-snap ones, and Flacco needs to start winning the former much more often to give his team any chance to succeed in the latter.

After the snap, the Ravens have the personnel to move the ball against the Steelers.  Ray Rice had over 150 total yards in both matches last year, and looks to have bounced back from his injury against the Browns to be ready to play.  Anquan Boldin caught 8 balls for 84 yards in his last game against Pittsburgh, Super Bowl XLIV.  Todd Heap had 2 TD grabs in the Steel City last season.  Derrick Mason had seven catches in each game in 2009.  T.J. Houshmandzadeh has had plenty of experience and success working against the Steelers’ secondary.  And new tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta present new, unknown variables for Pittsburgh to account for.

It’s not 7-on-7, though.  The onus, as it always does against Pittsburgh, will fall on the offensive line’s ability to keep Flacco upright, and his ability to get the ball out quickly.  Take a sack if necessary Joe, but don’t force the ball into coverage, and don’t get stripped in the pocket.  The Steelers’ defense thrives on the sack/fumble.

(An aside: Ravens fans are all too familiar with the names James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, but keep an eye out for Lawrence Timmons this time as well – he was the one that damn near killed Mason over the middle in the 2008 home game. He’s having a very strong season in the early going.)

Of those aforementioned five games against Pittsburgh in the Harbaugh/Flacco era, only one was decided by more than four points (three, three, four, three, and nine).  The simple fact is, the Steelers have made the plays down the stretch to win those ballgames, while the Ravens have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot.

Picking up boneheaded penalties to rob themselves of precious field position or take points off the board.

Dropping wide open passes in the end zone.

Failing to wrap up the quarterback for a sack despite getting both hands on him, letting him instead escape and make a big play.

These are the kinds of things that have doomed the Ravens time and again in this rivalry match.

Until they get them corrected, the results will continue, I’m afraid, to be the same.

Playing smart, disciplined, mistake-free football will go a long way to seeing the Ravens emerge from Heinz Field as the victors.  On top of that, they must take advantage of the errors made by Batch, and not let speedster Mike Wallace get open down the field. That type of execution, combined with the absence of noted Raven-killers Santonio Holmes and Roethlisberger (a single Holmes touchdown ended up being the difference in 3 of the last four Ravens losses) should be enough to put them over the top.

http://www.bmorebirdsnest.com/ 

 

By Derek Arnold 

My season preview will be a bit different than most you may read.  Instead of breaking down things as a whole, I’ll just take a glance at the schedule and give a few quick thoughts about each game, followed by a (completely unscientific) guess on what the Ravens’ chances are in that particular game.  You can rest assured that my weekly game previews will go into much deeper detail and (attempted) analysis.  I like to give the following disclaimer for this post:

Of course, all of these predictions are based on rosters, teams, etc., as they stand today. Injuries, suspensions, and whatever else could easily drastically change my feeling about any or all of the games. This is for fun more than anything else, so don’t go calling your bookie on my recommendations.

Week 1- @ New York Jets

The Jets’ first game at the New Meadowlands Stadium, in front of the big lights of Monday Night Football. Rex Ryan has been anything but shy about proclaiming his team to be Super Bowl-bound, and the Jets have taken over for the Ravens as the most swagger-ific team in the NFL. One problem – the Jets haven’t won anything since six months before Neil Armstrong was walking on the moon. I have confidence in the Ravens to come out and knock the Jets down a peg early.

Chance of Victory: 65%

Week 2 – @ Cincinnati

The Ravens’ early run of road games vs. 2009 playoff teams continues with a trip to the Jungle. They were beat handily here in 2009, much worse than the 17-7 score would indicate. Carson Palmer has a bevy of weapons to throw to, between Ochocinco, T.O., and Jermaine Gresham, but it was Cedric Benson who gave the Ravens’ defense fits last year, putting up over 100 yards in both contests. The Ravens have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bengals, but if they don’t stop the run better this time around, I’m afraid the results will be eerily similar 

Chance of Victory: 40%

Week 3 – vs. Cleveland

With some luck (and good execution), the Ravens won’t return home to Baltimore for the first time in over a month with a winless record. It could happen though. And, even if it doesn’t, Ray and the boys will be eager to take out some frustrations on the Brownies. After back-to-back road games against what are likely to be playoff contenders, Cleveland is going to look mighty cupcake-ish. Jake Delhomme looked good this preseason, but the interception master should have no problem finding purple jerseys, regardless of the fact that #20 still won’t be on the field. Baltimore whooped up on the Browns 34-3 in this matchup last year, and I don’t see this one being much different.

Chance of Victory: 85%

Week 4 – @ Pittsburgh

Thanks to Ben Roethlisberger taking girls to his hotel/bathroom, the Ravens will again get to face Pittsburgh without their star QB, just as they did in the first meeting last year. This game presents the Ravens’ best chance to get their first win in the city of bridges since 2006 that they’re likely to see for a while. Even those who are bullish about the Steelers’ chances without Ben in the first four games concede that they will lose to the Ravens. Joe Flacco ALMOST won in Pittsburgh in his first game there in 2008. Then he nearly pulled off the upset in the 2008 AFC Championship, before throwing a late interception. In 2009, were it not for a terrible drop in the end zone by Derrick Mason, he would have likely secured his first road victory against Pittsburgh. This is the time he finally gets over the hump.

Chance of Victory: 70%

Week 5 – vs. Denver

The Ravens get Josh McDaniels’ crew at M&T Bank Stadium for the second straight season. Last year, the Broncos came to B’More 6-0. After a 30-7 beatdown courtesy of the purple and black, Denver went on to finish the season at just 8-8; new coach, same ol’ Denver collapse. What’s changed for the Broncos? Well, they lost their best player on each side of the ball – Brandon Marshall on offense and Elvis Dumervil on defense. A similar fate awaits the horseheads in Charm City this year.

Chance of Victory – 80%

Week 6 – @ Patriots

After going to Foxboro and slapping the Patriots around in the Wild-Card round of the 2009 Playoffs, the Ravens should have no reservations about winning football games in the land of chowdah and horrible, grating accents. While I don’t see the Pats falling to third in the AFC East as some are predicting, I’m not nearly as nervous about this game as I was about the 2009 version. Bill Belichick’s defense has more questions at secondary than even the Ravens do this year, and with Joe Flacco’s arsenal of weapons, its safe to say he’ll be in for a much better day statistically than he put up in January – but the result should be the same.

Chance of Victory – 60%

Week 7 – vs. Bills

The last time the Bills came to Baltimore was the 2006 season finale on New Year’s Eve, a game I personally have great memories of. In 2007, the Ravens visited Ralph Wilson Stadium and lost an ugly game under the direction of the Billick/Boller combination. This will be Buffalo’s first time seeing the John Harbaugh Ravens, and the Ravens’ first seeing the Chan Gailey Bills. Buffalo was 6-10 last season, but three of those wins came on the road. Looking at this game now in early September, it seems safe to pencil it in as a win, but with the Ravens finishing up a first tough “half” of the season and Buffalo coming off their bye week…I’ll just say this game worries me more than it probably should.

Chance of Victory – 70%

Week 9 – vs. Dolphins

The Ravens get their bye week to prepare for the Miami Dolphins, a popular pick to challenge the Jets and Patriots for the AFC East crown in 2010. John Harbaugh’s team had Miami’s number in 2008, beating them twice in their own house. The 2010 version of the Dolphins has some significant differences though, most notably a different Chad at quarterback. Henne took over for Pennington last year, starting 13 games and throwing for nearly 3000 yards. He gets a shiny new toy this year in the aforementioned Brandon Marshall, but there is a reason I chose the above picture of Ed Reed that I did. “Twenty” should definitely (fingers crossed) be back on the field for the Ravens after the bye (if not earlier), and it won’t matter which guy named Chad is putting the ball up in B’More that day – Reed will be receiving.

Chance of Victory – 75%

Week 10 – @ Falcons

Matty “Ice” Ryan and the Falcons are looking to bounce back after missing the playoffs despite a 9-7 record in 2009. It will be a matchup of 2008 First-Round Draft Pick quarterbacks and third year head coaches. If this game were in B’More, I’d feel a lot better about it, but going down to the ATL to play inside the Georgia Dome in early November doesn’t sound appealing at all. The Ravens will have their hands full with Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White, and, though Flacco is indeed a better QB than Ryan, our purple and black will likely have a tough time in this one.

Chance of Victory – 40%

Week 11 – @ Carolina

The Panthers are moving to Matt Moore at QB after jettisoning Jake Delhomme to the Cleveland Browns. Unless he is awful for the first 10 weeks, or gets injured, there is little chance rookie Jimmy Clausen will be lining up against the Ravens. Carolina also lost Julius Peppers, and their defense will likely be their undoing in 2010 as a result, considering their still-potent rushing attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I see Flacco having a field day down in Charlotte, while the largely one-dimensional Panthers attack struggles to keep up.

Chance of Victory – 70%

Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay

The only worry here is that the Ravens look past the Bucs to the Week 13 matchup against Pittsburgh. Tampa has always struggled mightily in cold weather, and November 28 in Baltimore has the potential to be plenty chilly. On top of that, the Bucs were just 3-13 in 2009, and didn’t do much to improve their roster this offseason. Entering the season, their top two wideouts are Ronnie Brown (9 receptions in 2009) and rookie Mike Williams. Tight end Kellan Winslow could be effective, but he just had his fifth knee surgery this offseason (not to mention he has awesome memories of playing in Baltimore). Ravens win in a laugher.

Chance of Victory: 80% (+1% for every 2 degrees under 50 F at game time)

Week 13 – vs. Pittsburgh

The Steelers will have Baby Ben back by this point – let’s remember though, Ben has still won only once in Baltimore (though it seems like a far more frequent occurence). He may have the Steelers back in the thick of contention by this time, and even if he doesn’t, this game is always tense and tightly contested. The Ravens will hopefully be looking for their first season sweep of Yinz from Donton since 2006, while Pittsburgh will be chasing just their second victory in Charm City since 2002 (the other, of course, coming in 2008). This game gets my heartbeat above baseline already, just thinking about it nearly three full months ahead of time. I need a drink…

Chance of Victory – 60%

Week 14 – @ Texans

Prognosticators are calling for big things from Houston this year – but what else is new? It seems like every year is supposed to be the year the Texans finally get into the postseason, but every year they are sitting at home watching the playoffs just like we fans are. This is a tough matchup for the Ravens. Like most teams, they don’t have anyone who can cover Andre Johnson 1-on-1, and running back Arian Foster looks primed for a big year. In 2008, the Ravens went into Houston and smacked the Texans around 41-13, but Sage “Helicopter” Rosenfels was at QB for the Texans that day, and their defense made big strides in going from 22nd overall in 2008 to 13th in 2009. This could be a key late-season matchup for both teams, who hope to be jockeying for Playoff position.

Chance of Victory – 50%

Week 15 – vs. Saints

The Ravens play the Saints for the first time since spaking them 35-22 in the Superdome in 2006. Obviously, both teams have gone through huge changes since then, but the most significant is the Lombardi Trophy that now lives in the Big Easy. If you watched the Saints play the Vikings the other night, you saw how much they like to spread out opposing defenses, and we have to hope the Ravens’ secondary is at near-full strength going into this game, or it could be a very long night. The weather could be an ally for the Ravens in this game as well, a la the 2007 Patriots game here in B’More. Mother nature could ground the Saints’ air attack more effectively than any opposing defense, should she choose to cooperate. Like Ray said, the Saints are the Champs until proven otherwise.

Chance of Victory – 40%

Week 16 – @ Browns

The Ravens had a tough time in Cleveland last year, grinding out a 16-0 victory that was far from pretty. The Browns beat Pittsburgh at home last year, in a game where the weather was again the great equalizer. Cleveland will likely again be in spoiler mode at this point, happy to be a bump in the road for the hated Ravens as they try to secure their postseason status. Late season road games are never a gimme (see Oakland 2009 Week 17), and Ravens players and fans alike would be wise to not look past Cleveland here.

Chance of Victory – 70%

Week 17 – vs. Bengals

The NFL scheduled this game with the hope that it will be a huge division-deciding type game in the AFC North. For that to materialize though, both these teams will have to live up to their lofty preseason expectations, something neither of them has been able to do with much regularity in recent memory. Lots of things have to go right for Cincy and the Ravens over the next four months for this game to live up to the billing. Let’s pretend for now that they do, though, and that this does end up being the game to crown the 2010 AFC North champs. The Ravens will have to avoid the type of late-game collapse that resulted in a Bengals win at M&T Bank Stadium in 2009, and do so in a playoff-type atmosphere. The hope here, though, is that everything goes right for the purple and black in 2010, and wrong for Cincy (and the Squealers and Brownstains), and the Ravens are resting their starters by Week 17.

Chance of victory – 70% 

http://www.bmorebirdsnest.com/ 

 

 

Joe Flacco has more wins in his first 3 seasons than any quarterback not named Dan Marino, but there is one thing he’s yet to do and that’s beat Ben Roethlisberger. Flacco has beaten the Steelers twice in those 3 years, but that was when Ben was out of the lineup. Roethlisberger has gotten the best of Flacco in all 6 of their matchups, including twice in the playoffs. Roethlisberger and the Steelers over Joe Flacco and the Ravens was how Baltimore’s season ended last year.

If Flacco is ever going to win a Super Bowl, he’s going most likely going to have to beat Roethlisberger. He’s got a very good shot to do so this season, week 1. The Steelers are Super Bowl runner ups and Super Bowl runner ups typically disappoint in the following season and typically do badly in their season opener. The Steelers also have a history of struggling after making the Super Bowl and they had a lot of offseason distractions. Plus, the game is Baltimore.

If the Ravens can win that game, they might not look back. This is one of the most talented teams in the league and if they can just get over the hump and beat their archrivals, they have the talent to win the division and make a deep playoff run. They did win 12 games last year, remember, though they lost the division to those Steelers. If they do that again this year, they’ll win this division.

Flacco is supported by some solid talent offensively. They had one of the best run blocking lines in the league last year and one of the league’s best running backs in Ray Rice. Rice is also one of, if not the best pass catching back in the league, a huge part of this offense. He will be backed up by Ricky Williams, a talented #2 back. At fullback, they have the league’s best fullback, Vonta Leach.

On the line, Michael Oher starts at left tackle. He had a fantastic rookie season at right tackle, but when he moved to the blindside last year with Jared Gaither hurt, the protagonist of “The Blindside” struggled in pass protection. Hopefully for Flacco, he’ll be better there this year. Opposite Oher, Gaither is gone, but 3^rd round rookie Jah Reid will start at right tackle. He could struggle a bit as a rookie, especially given this lockout. If he does, right guard Marshal Yanda could move outside to right tackle, but then the question would be, who plays at right guard? Do they try Reid there? Do they promote backup Oniel Cousins. The loss of Chris Chester in free agency could end up hurting them.

At center, veteran Matt Birk is expected to start, though he could miss week 1 with a knee injury. At his age, an injury is a huge worry, though centers typically have long shelf lives in the NFL. They have mulled bringing in free agent center Casey Rabach as insurance, a smart idea because undrafted rookie center Ryan Bartholomew is currently 2^nd on the depth chart. At left guard, Ben Grubbs is the only non-question mark on the line. Grubbs is a punishing run blocker and has only allowed 3 sacks in the last 2 seasons combined.

Their receiving corps is also a bit of a question. Anquan Boldin is their #1 receiver. The problem is he’s never proved himself as a #1 guy. He put up nice stats as the #2 to Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, but as the guy in Baltimore last year, he struggled, especially down the stretch. In his final 10 games, including the playoffs, Boldin had 30 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns, hardly #1 receiver stats. He’s 31 in October so he’s not going to get any better.

Opposite him, veteran Derrick Mason is gone. The Ravens traded a 4^th rounder for Lee Evans recently so he is expected to start. Evans was a talented receiver who possibly just needed a change of scenery in his prime to be recognized as one of the best receivers in the league. Unfortunately, Evans might have gotten his change of scenery too late. The veteran receiver is declining at this point in his career and doesn’t look to have much left, though maybe having Joe Flacco to throw him will prove me wrong.

2^nd round rookie Torrey Smith is expected be the slot receiver. Rookie receivers typically struggle and this lockout won’t help. The good news is that Smith will give them the deep threat they lacked last season and he could become a productive player by late in the season and the playoffs, like Emmanuel Sanders did for the Steelers last season.

At tight end, oft injured veteran Todd Heap is gone, but 2^nd year tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson should more than fill his void. Between those two tight ends and Ray Rice, Flacco has 3 very good possession receivers, and Boldin still has something left in the tank, but they need a deep threat to step up on the outside. Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the league, but you aren’t maximizing his value unless you have someone to catch his deep throws.

 

Overall, this team isn’t going to win the division because of their offense. They have a winner at the helm who can make the deep throws, but what they are known for is their defense and they once again have one of the league’s best defenses. Terrell Suggs at rush linebacker, Ray Lewis at middle linebacker, Ed Reed at safety, and Haloti Ngata at 3-4 defensive end all are among the league’s best defensive players.

Suggs and Ngata combined for 16.5 sacks last season, but the rest of the team combined for a mere 10.5. They need a 3^rd pass rusher to step up. Arthur Jones has surpassed Cory Redding on the depth chart and will start opposite Ngata at end and Jarrett Johnson will do the same at rush linebacker opposite Suggs. Jones, once a first or second round talent who slipped to the 5^th with injury concerns in 2010, is now fully healthy and could easily step up as that 3^rd pass rusher. However, Johnson had 1.5 sacks last year and he’s never had more than 6 sacks in his career so there’s not a lot of upside with him.

The Ravens are hoping Sergio Kindle can take the nickel rusher job and become a force for them rushing the quarterback. Kindle, a 2^nd round pick in 2010, didn’t play a snap last season after a scary fractured skull injury. Fortunately, that injury didn’t end up ending his career. He’ll be someone to watch in the preseason for them.

Kindle is not the only 2010 2^nd round pick expected to make an impact for this defense. Terrence Cody will start at nose tackle with veteran Kelly Gregg gone. He’s had weight problems in the past so we’ll see how he handles playing a lot of snaps this season. If he can, he’ll be a defensive force them in the middle of that 3-4 line.

If he can’t, I don’t know what they’ll do. They don’t have a proven nose tackle on the roster. Haloti Ngata would probably have to move inside and Cory Redding, a marginal player and an incumbent starter on the line, would play end. 2009 2^nd round pick Paul Kruger or rookie 5^th rounder Pernell McPhee could also play end. McPhee will be hurt by the lockout and Kruger, once a promising prospect, has done next to nothing in 2 years in the league.

Of course, you can’t talk about this defense without talking about Ray Lewis. He seems to be an ageless wonder. Lewis, now 36, is still playing at a Pro-Bowl level. The issue is who will play next to him inside at middle linebacker. Jameel McClain is a marginal player. He is penciled in as the starter once again while Tavares Gooden and Dannell Ellerbe wait in the wings.

Though they use a 3-4 base defense, they do play some 4-3. In a 4-3 alignment, Haloti Ngata moves inside with Terrence Cody. Terrell Suggs plays on the line, where he also plays well. Arthur Jones is the left end in this alignment. Their 3 linebackers are Jarrett Johnson, a much better player in a 4-3, Ray Lewis in the middle, and then Jameel McClain rounding things out.

At corner, they lost talented #2 corner Josh Wilson in free agency, but they resigned Chris Carr, a talented #1. Lardarius Webb will step into the starting lineup in place of Wilson. He is now fully healthy. They also have first round pick Jimmy Smith as their #3 cornerback. In a league where so many teams go 3 deep at wide receiver, it’s very valuable for this team to go 3 deep at cornerback. They had the 2^nd best pass defense in the league last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did that again.

At safety, Ed Reed is one of the league’s best players, when he’s healthy. Reed has missed 10 games in the last 2 seasons, but led the league with 8 picks last year despite missing the first 6 games of the season. However, if he goes down with an injury, all of a sudden this safety unit looks pretty bleak. 3 marginal players, free agent acquisition Bernard Pollard and top backups Haruki Nakamura and Tom Zbikowski, will compete for Dawan Landry’s old spot at strong safety. Landry signed in Jacksonville this offseason and was one of the best run stuffing safeties in the league last year.

Overall, this team does have some holes. However, they have plenty of talent on the defensive end and good leadership and a good running game on the offensive end. They aren’t an elite team, but they’re one of the best 2^nd tier teams in the league and with the Steelers having a down year, according to my predictions, that should be enough to win the division. I don’t consider them a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but at the same time, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they did win it all.

Quarterback: B

Running backs: A-

Receiving corps: C+

Offensive line: B-

Pass rush: C+

Run defense: A-

Pass coverage: A

Coaching: B-

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC North

 

By Derek Arnold 

On Sunday, the Ravens lost.

They lost to a very good football team.

They lost to a very good football team with a Hall-of-Fame head coach.

They lost to a very good football team with a Hall-of-Fame head coach and a Hall-of-Fame quarterback.

They lost to a very good football team with a Hall-of-Fame head coach and a Hall-of-Fame quarterback, who had two weeks to rest and prepare.

They lost to a very good football team with a Hall-of-Fame head coach and a Hall-of-Fame quarterback, who had two weeks to rest and prepare, on the road.

All of that, I can deal with.

What makes this loss so difficult to stomach is what I neglected to mention above…

On Sunday, the Ravens lost to a very good football team with a Hall-of-Fame head coach and quarterback, who had two weeks to rest and prepare, on the road…in a game in which they held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.

Yeah. That last point is the inexcusable part. For the first 45 minutes of the game, the Ravens beat the Patriots up and down the field, building a 20-10 lead with 14:57 remaining. What was unfortunate, and what ultimately proved to be the difference in the game, was that in the four plays prior to Billy Cundiff’s 25-yard field goal gave the Ravens what would be their final points for the day, Ravens’ receivers dropped two potential touchdown passes. On the first, Anquan Boldin was separated from the ball by a New England safety after a perfect strike from Joe Flacco from 20 yards out. On the second, Derrick Mason heard footsteps and couldn’t haul in what should have been a seven-yard score.

Sure, both plays would have required impressive, if not spectacular, catches. But both Boldin and Mason got two hands on the ball, and in the NFL, those passes should have been caught – especially by veterans like those two. If they are, this recap likely has a much different tone.

Compounding the problem was that, after that series, the Ravens offense (both playcalling and execution) seemed to climb aboard the plane back to Baltimore. With the exception of an 18-yard pass from Flacco to Boldin on the opening play of their next drive, the Ravens offense went 3-and-out, 3-and-out, 3-and-out on their next three possessions of regulation and overtime. The aforementioned Boldin completion came with 10:24 left in the fourth. The Ravens would not pick up another first down until the 10:17 mark of overtime – over a full quarter of play.

Three plays after that 10:24 first down, a sequence that could likely be pointed to as the pivotal one of the game unfolded.

On 3rd-and-1 from their own 47, leading 20-17, Cam Cameron called for a quarterback sneak. A play which, for anyone watching, was obviously doomed from the start. Flacco attempted to go through Pats’ defensive linemen Vince Wilfork and Greg Warren, and didn’t have a prayer.

The talk radio lines will no doubt be lighting up this week with people blaming Cameron for the odd call, and Flacco for not recognizing the defense and audibling out of the play. What is likely to be an even greater point of contention this week in B’More, though, is what happened next.

Facing 4th-and-the length of the football, Coach John “you have to put teams away when you have the chance” Harbaugh elected to punt. To punt the ball back to Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, who were fresh off an 8-play, 60-yard drive where they faced only a single first down, in that situation…puzzling, to say that least. To say a bit more, it was the kind of decision that we just aren’t used to seeing from Harbaugh, who has proven during his 2+ years as the head coach, that he has plenty of “balls” in those type of situations. This time, though, he went timid, and the Ravens paid dearly.

It wasn’t just Harbaugh that went into a shell in the fourth quarter and overtime though. He took the entire Baltimore coaching staff with him.

Cam Cameron stopped picking on the Patriots’ secondary.

Greg Mattison gave Brady the short underneath stuff in the passing game, and Brady took it eagerly.

Now, give New England credit. As mentioned, they have a great coaching staff of their own, and those guys made the necessary adjustments. They took away Flacco’s passing lanes. They threw quick screen after quick screen on offense. They did what was necessary to win the game. What the Ravens’ coaches were up to is anybody’s guess.

Flacco played very well all day, going 27/35 for 285 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t know if the Ravens’ coaches’ tentative mentality was preached to Joe on the sideline during the fourth quarter or what, but he wasn’t the same after those two dropped touchdown passes. He seemed much more willing to check down to Ray Rice, even though Rice was routinely swarmed by New England linebackers.

That’s another area where New England must be commended – they were not going to let Rice destroy them like he did in the two 2009 meetings. Although there seemed to be some nice holes on the Ravens’ opening drive, ultimately Rice ran the ball 28 times for just 88 yards, and his long of the day was just eight. He added eight receptions for 38 yards, but really wasn’t a major factor in the game.

Which brings us to the next puzzling thing about the gameplan of the Ravens’ staff…

Where the hell was Willis McGahee???

McGahee did not see a single touch in Foxborough, and I’m not even positive he was at the stadium. Sure, I was calling for Rice to take over goalline duties from Willis, but to just leave #23 on the sideline all afternoon? Especially considering the relative lack of success that Rice was having? It just makes absolutely no sense to me that McGahee was never even inserted as a sort of change-of-pace, and I’ll be anticipating how Cameron and Harbaugh explain that fact this week.

Before we wrap up, we can’t excuse the Ravens’ defense or special teams here either. While it’s commendable to hold New England to just 23 points, after they had put up 38 in each of their prior two home games, there were some disturbing signs from the “D.”

First off, what the hell is it with the Ravens’ inability to stop white running backs? We all remember Peyton Hillis running roughshod over them in week 2, and in Foxborough, Danny Freakin’ Woodhead had 63 yards and 5.7 per carry. They also had a hell of a time tackling Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch, allowing the Pats to rack up an incredible amount of YAC, after doing such a great job against the Denver Broncos last week.

Next, Mattison’s insistence to only rush three men so often is starting to cost the team. By now we know not to expect the kind of blitzes that we saw when Rex Ryan was in town, but giving Tom Brady 5 or 6 seconds to find a receiver down near the end zone isn’t a recipe for success in any universe. I don’t care if the Ravens emptied the bench and put 12 guys in the end zone covering Pats’ receivers, if Brady can basically take his helmet off back there and stand flat footed, he’s going to find someone. And that’s exactly what he did to get New England to within 20-17. With the exception of Haloti Ngata, the Ravens’ pass rush was disturbingly non-existent, especially considering the past success they have had against the Patriots.

Finally, we come to special teams. While they never came up with the huge game-breaker that we feared, and that they used to beat Miami in week 4, New England was clearly the superior unit on Sunday.

Jalen Parmele needs to be out of a job. His indecision/terrible decisions cost the Ravens a good bit of field position on at least two occasions.

Neither Chris Carr nor Tom Zbikowski can generate anything on punt returns. And when it seems like they just MIGHT, it’s always because someone else is illegally blocking or holding. On top of that, their refusal to come up and field punts that aren’t hit directly to them cost the team additional field position several times. It’s a sad state of affairs for the Ravens’ return games.

Even Billy Cundiff, despite his three touchbacks, had a costly gaffe. After going up 20-10, Cundiff’s ensuing kickoff squirted out of bounds at about the two yard line…two yards too soon, which resulted in the Patriots starting at their own 40-yard line.

The Ravens outplayed the Patriots for three quarters Sunday. Despite the Pats having two weeks to prepare, the Ravens appeared ready to take their best shot and bring a 5-1 record back to B’More.

Unfortunately, they were outplayed and (thoroughly) outcoached during the final quarter and the overtime period, and 4-2 is the result.

Still not a terrible place to be, after four tough road games, and with only a home game against Buffalo standing between us and the bye week.

Oh, and a certain guy who wears #20 is rumored to be coming back this week.

Things could be worse.

http://www.bmorebirdsnest.com/

By Derek Arnold 

For the third time in just over a calendar year, the Ravens travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots on their home turf. So will this trip end in heartbreak like the 2009 regular season meeting, or in jubilation as the playoff matchup did?

The Patriots have won 22 consecutive regular season home games.

They are coming off their bye week, a situation in which Bill Belichick coached teams are 8-2 since 2000, and have not lost since 2002.

In short, it won’t be easy, but if the Ravens play a solid game, they could have the talent on both sides of the ball to hand the Patriots their well overdue post-bye week loss.

Tom Brady is having another stellar season so far in 2010, completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 911 yards and 9 touchdowns to go with only two interceptions. In the first meeting with Baltimore last year, “Tom Terrific” was just that, going 21/32 for 258 yards and a critical touchdown to Randy Moss. In the playoff game however, a time during which Tom has been exceptional during his career, the Ravens held Brady to 23/42 for 154 yards, and picked him off three times. One area in which B’More has had success against the Patriots, though, is in pressuring Brady. They sacked him three times in each of those 2009 meetings, and Terrell Suggs especially seems to dominate Pats’ left tackle Matt Light. Even last season, when Suggs was generally playing poorly, he got to Brady and forced a fumble in both games. He, and the rest of the Ravens’ pass rush, will need to be equally effective against Brady, who has only been sacked five times in four games, on Sunday.

The Pats’ offense is also dealing with the much ballyhooed departure of All-World wide receiver Randy Moss, who was traded to Minnesota during New England’s bye week. Moss was not particularly effective against the Ravens last year (managing just 8 catches for 98 yards and 1 score total in the two games), but his presence on the field undeniably opens things up for the Patriots’ very strong underneath passing game. Guys like Wes Welker, and more recently Julian Edelman, have found great success running routes against linebackers with Moss taking the coverage deep with him. New England reacquired Super Bowl XXXIX MVP Deion Branch from Seattle, and he and second-year wideout Brandon Tate will try to pick up Moss’s slack.

Perhaps the more dangerous weapon in the Patriots’ passing attack Sunday will be rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez, out of the University of Florida, has 18 receptions for 240 yards already (for comparison’s sake, Moss had 9 for 139), and at 6′1″ 245 lbs., could pose a big matchup problem for the Ravens. Ravens’ linebackers struggled mightily in pass coverage in the preseason, and will have their hands full this week. As a whole, the Ravens’ 2nd-ranked pass defense will face easily their biggest challenge of the young season. Though Kyle Orton managed over 300 yards last week, the defense held him in check while it mattered, allowing the offense to build a comfortable lead through the early part of the game, before Orton racked up some yards with the game out of hand. Even sans Moss, they’ll have to play their best game of the year to beat Brady and the Patriots.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have a clear advantage over the Pats’ young and struggling defense. New England is 29th overall and 28th against the pass, so Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ passing game could be in for a big day. In the playoff game, of course, it was Ray Rice and the running attack that won the game, racking up 234 total yards on the ground. Flacco, meanwhile, was just 4/10 for 34 yards and an interception. I don’t expect New England to allow such a one-dimensional attack to be successful again, so B’More will have to be much more balanced from the start to have a chance. Fortunately, with the additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, along with Todd Heap and Ed Dickson, the Ravens have plenty of weapons to turn to, should New England shut down the run as they were unable to do in January.

One area where the New England defense has excelled is in catching errant passes from opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots have seven interceptions, tied for third highest in the NFL, through just four games. Let’s hope Flacco leaves his patented “back foot floater” at home, or he could be in for a long day.

The Patriots’ special teams have also been a strength, as evidenced by their single-handedly costing the Miami Dolphins’ special teams coach his job two weeks ago. Brandon Tate is averaging over 33 yards per kick return, and the Patriots have blocked several punts. Fortunately for the Ravens, they have the ultimate special teams trump cards in their excellent kickers. Billy Cundiff has 11 touchbacks already this season, and Sam Koch’s incredible directional punting skills were on full display against the Broncos’ dangerous returner Eddie Royal. Although the Ravens’ return games have been disappointing as a whole in 2010, the coverage has been solid, and John Harbaugh’s special teams background could be a great asset for the team in Foxborough.

Now, when you see my prediction, some may accuse me of “flip-flopping” or of pandering to the audience earlier in the week when I picked the Patriots to win in my chat with Foxboroblog.

However, I did that interview on Tuesday, and in the days since then I have been convinced otherwise. Through listening to the local and national pundits, and watching Playbook on the NFL Network, I’m now much more confident that the Ravens can pull out a victory against the favored Patriots.

Baltimore Sun columnist Mike Preston says he “can’t figure out how” the Patriots will beat the Ravens.

All three guys (Brian Billick, Sterling Sharpe, Joe Theisman) on NFL Network picked the Ravens.

All the Boston-area media who were guests on Baltimore talk radio this week picked the Ravens.

Six of the 8 ESPN personalities picked the Ravens (even Steeler-loving Raven-hater Merrill Hoge!)

Bill Belichick was the one that called Steve Bisciotti nearly three years ago and told him to hire John Harbaugh. He regretted that phone call, if just a bit, last January. Let’s hope he regrets it again, just a bit, Sunday.

Ravens win in a squeaker. 

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