Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P

Scoring System

1. Andrew Luck (Stanford) 100

2. Robert Griffin (Baylor) 98

3. Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 81

4. Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) 76

5. Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 67

6. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) 59

7. Nick Foles (Arizona) 56

8. Ryan Lindley (San Diego State) 55

9. Kellen Moore (Boise State) 54

10. Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) 53 

11. BJ Coleman (UT-Chattanooga) 51

12. Case Keenum (Houston) 49

13. Darron Thomas (Oregon) 45

Updated 4/26/11

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT 3-4 DE NT MLB OLB CB S K P

Scoring System 

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

1. Cam Newton 84 (Auburn)

2. Blaine Gabbert 78 (Missouri)

3. Ryan Mallett 77 (Arkansas)

4. Jake Locker 72 (Washington)

5. Colin Kaepernick 72 (Nevada)

6. Ricky Stanzi 71 (Iowa)

7. Christian Ponder 61 (Florida State)

8. Nathan Enderle 59 (Idaho)

9. Pat Devlin 58 (Delaware)

10. Greg McElroy 56 (Alabama)

11. Andy Dalton 54 (TCU)

12. TJ Yates 52 (North Carolina)

13. Josh Portis 50 (California-PA)

14. Scott Tolzien 49 (Wisconsin)

15. Tyrod Taylor 47 (Virginia Tech)

16. Taylor Potts 45 (Texas Tech)

17. Ben Chappell 44 (Indiana)

18. Adam Weber 39 (Minnesota)

19. Jerrod Johnson 37 (Texas A&M)

20. Jeff Van Camp 33 (Florida Atlantic)

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

Updated: 4/17/10

Scoring System 

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

1. Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) 98

Didn’t step up clutch in close games last year, but still had a hell of a statistical year for a mere junior throwing 28 touchdowns to 4 picks and averaging 8.8 YPA out of a pro style offense. It’s safe to say that while he lost a lot of close games, all 6 of his losses were by a touchdown or less, Notre Dame would have gotten destroyed without him. He played his best in big games and got absolutely no help from his defense. He has experience playing behind a poor offensively line, which he’ll likely have to do in the NFL if he goes top 5 as he’s projected, and he played most of last season through an injured foot, showing his toughness. He’s the top quarterback prospect in this draft class and gets a 98 rating. For the record, Matt Stafford got a 97 last year.

2. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) 92                          

3/29/10: Bradford looked great in his Pro Day, showing the stronger arm that it was predicted he would have when he showed up 15-20 pounds heavier to The Combine. The Rams have not announced him as the #1 pick, saying they are going to wait until his private workout with them on the 19th, but I would be very surprised if he wasn’t the pick and they didn’t have a contract in place with him before draft day on the 22nd.

2/26/10: It is reported that Bradford’s shoulder examination went excellent. I am also hearing that a dozen or possibly more NFL GMs were asked about Clausen and Bradford and all of them liked Bradford more. I still like Clausen more, but that won’t matter, if the Rams like him more. I haven’t made this decision final, but I think I could have Bradford atop my mock next week. He also bulked up from 218 to 236, a very impressive feat and necessary for someone whose arm strength was a question mark.

Quite the opposite of Clausen, he’s a proven winner with very mature decision making, but he doesn’t have Clausen’s arm or experience in a pro style offense. There’s no denying the season he had in 2008, but the fact that when Bradford got hurt this year, his freshman backup was actually able to put up close to similar numbers may show that Bradford is just a system quarterback. Then of course there’s his injured shoulder which is a red flag. He has a better arm than about 90% of the quarterbacks in this draft class, and his decision making is great, but there are some red flags here.

3. Tim Tebow (Florida) 88

3/18/10: He didn’t look great in terms of throwing delivery at his Pro Day, but he certainly, mechanically looked a ton better than he did in the Senior Bowl and all last season. In fact, the work he has made on his throw is a huge testament to his amazing work ethic and love of the sport. He’s still a project and far from a finished project, but he has good upside and I think he has the work ethic to fulfill it. I don’t see why some places regard him as less than a 2^nd round prospect.

1/30/10: Contrary to what the media is saying, Tebow did not struggle in the Senior Bowl, in fact, his Senior Bowl was painfully neutral. I say painfully because I wanted him to either show me he’s not a true quarterback or that he is, but he did neither. He didn’t make a ton of tough throws, although he threw one impressive curl, and he completed 8 (should have been 9 if it weren’t for an easy drop) out of his 12 throws, but he was operating with Miami’s playbook which is one of the most college esque playbooks in the NFL. Basically, he was playing with the same Florida playbook he was comfortable and we didn’t get to see him be challenged by a pro style offense. So, basically, I learned nothing about Tebow in his Senior Bowl.

Showed in the Sugar Bowl his ability to throw the football and step up in big games by throwing more touchdowns than incompletions, but his mechanics are still poor. However, I don’t believe he has a single mechanical issue that can’t be fixed at the next level and he’s an extremely hard worker. His intangibles are off the chart. Right now the #10 pick is his to lose, based off of the comments Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver made about him earlier this season, so he’ll need to step it up once again in the Senior Bowl.

4. QB Jevan Snead (Mississippi) 74

He had a great sophomore year and followed that up by just throwing the football. He threw 20 picks to 20 touchdowns this year and while he didn’t have a ton of help around him, on the offensive line and in the receiving corps, his decision making is a huge red flag for him. He has all the physical tools and then some, but whether or not he puts them all together at the next level is currently a mystery.

5. QB Tony Pike (Cincinnati) 71             

1/30/10: He showed more of what the coaches were seeing from him in practice, a ball that kind of dies at about 10 yard downfield. He did look more mobile in the pocket than I remember him from last year, but his arm strength was not good and he struggled to make a lot of the throws he’ll have to make in the NFL. He started out 3 of 3, but was 2 of his next 9 to finish 5-12 for 44 yards. He has good decision making and good short accuracy, but I think he’s a 3rd round prospect at best.

1/27/10: Looked like a stick figure at his weigh in and then went out and has easily looked like the worst quarterback at the Senior Bowl this week in practice. He went into the Senior Bowl with the potential to go in the 2^nd round. Now, I think he’s looking at the 3^rd round.

He may just be a system quarterback and he doesn’t have elite arm strength, but his accuracy was excellent last year and he’s a very smart quarterback with good decision making. He’s also very tall and has the frame to bulk up and become a stronger thrower. He threw for 29 touchdowns last year despite missing close to 4 games with an injury, and injury which has clearly passed based off of his late season performances.

6. Colt McCoy (Texas) 69

2/26/10: McCoy measured in at 6-1 at his weigh in. Might as well add that to the list of reasons why he won’t work out in the NFL, no experience in a pro style offense, a weak arm, and now a small frame.

A proven winner with a very weak arm by NFL standards. He’ll fit a spread style offense in the NFL well and to his luck, more and more teams are switching to the spread in the NFL, but he’s still not a good fit for a good majority of the NFL scheme despite his amazing accomplishments in college.

7. Bill Stull (Pittsburgh) 66

He’s a statistical one year wonder, with a 65% completion percentage, a 8.2 YPA, and 21 touchdowns to 8 picks this year, all out of a pro style offense. If he can continue what he showed this year in the pros, and not what he did last year when he struggled badly, he could be a legit NFL signal caller.

8. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) 64

1/30/10: Though he still may ultimately end up at wide receiver, Robinson showed he can throw by throwing for 175 yards on 12-21, with one touchdown and one pick. He showed a much stronger arm than he did in Oklahoma State’s offense this year, which was centered around the short pass. He really looked like the 3rd round prospect he was last year before going into this season without his top two receivers from 2008 and struggling. He really showed what he can do with a good supporting cast. 

Really struggled this year compared to last year, but that’s understandable as he was without his top two receivers from 2008, Brandon Pettigrew (NFL), and Dez Bryant (suspension). I don’t think he’s a quarterback at the next level, though he may prove me wrong. He’s probably better off as a wildcat or a wide receiver at the next level, a la Josh Cribbs, but he could surprise some people and turn into a decent signal caller as well.

9. John Skelton (Fordham) 63

3/15/10: Having never gotten the chance to see him play at Fordham, getting to watch Skelton throw at his Combine was pretty impressive. I have heard the hype around him, but was conservative in my grading of him, a small school kid, until I actually say what he had. The only thing he appeared to struggle with was deep accuracy, but he has a huge arm and showed nice touch and footwork on his short throws.

Didn’t have a high level of competition at Fordham, but he had good tape, good production, and a cannon for an arm, drawing premature comparisons to Joe Flacco. At 6-6 250, he probably has one of the 3 strongest arms in the draft class, but I am a bit skeptic about his touch and reads. He’s a project with some massive upside.

10. Jarrett Brown (West Virginia) 61           

2/28/10: 40 times don’t matter a ton to quarterbacks, but a 4.54 will get you noticed, especially when you’re someone who may have to play another position at the NFL level. He’s a project, but he has upside at multiple positions including quarterback and running back. 

1/30/10: He didn’t have the best game overall, but he showed a lot of potential and physical tools. He’s an excellent athlete and has a running back’s frame, as shown in his weigh in, but he also showed a very good strong arm in the game. He really struggled with his touch and his footwork is very poor, he missed a wide open guy downfield because his feet weren’t set when he threw it, but overall, I like his upside a lot more now that I did before this week, when I saw him as a wildcat only.

1/26/10: Very athletic frame, measurables suggest a move to running back is possible. That’s good because he wasn’t going to make it as a quarterback in the NFL.

11. Sean Canfield (Oregon State) 61

1/30/10: I was expecting him to show himself as a legitimate quarterback prospect in this game, as he has experience in a pro style offense, and I think he has a stronger arm than most quarterbacks in this game, but he didn’t look great in limited action, throwing an end zone pick to Taylor Mays. He did have one nice 31 yard completion to in state rival Ed Dickson, the Oregon tight end, but overall, he was disappointing and I may be rethinking his late 3rd/early 4th round grade. 

All the physical tools, but none of the production in college for the most part. He had one good year as a starter, this year, but he’s very smart, very accurate, and has the frame to become a strong thrower. He reminds me a lot of Trent Edwards coming out of school, a guy who could be drafted based on upside alone despite the fact that he didn’t have the greatest college career. Canfield could be looking at the 3^rd round range as Edwards was, possibly lower because this draft class is better at quarterback than 2007’s.

12. Max Hall (BYU) 60

Statistically great with 32 touchdowns to 13 picks this year, but at 6-1 200 he lacks NFL size, and I really didn’t see anything resembling an NFL arm when I watched him this year. He’s smart, but the physical tools aren’t quite there. He’ll be a solid backup. 

13. Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) 57

1/30/10: I really didn’t like him going into this game, but he proved to me that his arm is a lot stronger than I lot and a lot more accurate on deep balls than I thought. He had a lot of nice deep throws, which surprised me because he comes from an offense that focuses on short throws. His footwork was still bad and he messed up a few easy throws, but he has some potential in the 4th or 5th round.

I really didn’t like what I saw on tape from LeFevour this season at Central Michigan. I thought he was a late round prospect. I thought he lacked a strong arm and his stats came in a scheme that bloats stats. I thought he couldn’t make reads and looked to run far too often. However, he impressed me a little in the Senior Bowl. He showed a stronger arm than I expected and made a few nice pro style throws, though he was very inconsistent. I’m not in love with him like some places are, but he’s a decent project with upside. He’ll probably be over drafted due to hype and need for the quarterback position.

14. Jonathan Crompton (Tennessee) 54

Crompton is a guy who came to Tennessee with a lot of hype, but never really showed that on the field, except for a little bit this year. He has experience in a pro style offense and all the tools he’ll need, but the tape and the production is very inconsistent.

15. Joe Webb (UAB) 53

1/30/10: I know he’s a former quarterback, but he really didn’t show that he has what it takes to be a wide receiver at the next level, which is what he needed to do because he’s not, I don’t think, an NFL caliber quarterback. On one play when Tim Tebow was in trouble, Webb needed to come back to his quarterback and help him out and he did not. His route running was poor and he also had a fairly easy drop. I think he’ll still get drafted late, but I’m not sure about his upside.

A three year starter at UAB, 2 as a quarterback, one as a receiver. He was actually pretty good as a quarterback this year with a 59.8% completion percentage, a 8.5 YPA, and 8 interceptions to 21 touchdowns and 1427 rushing yards on 227 attempts. However, he played in a shotgun offense and only really had one good year and I don’t think he has an NFL arm. He has NFL athleticism and could play wide receiver as well, but he wasn’t that great as a receiver as a sophomore and he struggled in the Senior Bowl. He’s a project, but he’s also an athlete with upside at multiple positions. 

16. Ryan Perrillioux (Jacksonville State) 52

17. Mike Kafka (Northwestern) 50

18. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan) 49

19. Levi Brown (Troy) 45

20. Darryl Clark (Penn State) 42

21. Matt Nichols (Eastern Washington) 40

I’m going to do a little bit more number crunching for NFL Quarterbacks to see if sitting them their first year is the right way to go. My last quarterback number crunching blog showed that the majority of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL sat their first year before getting to the place where they are now. Today, we’re going to take a look at every first round pick of a quarterback from 2000-2006 (we need at least three years to judge a quarterback) and look at how their career panned out and hopefully answer some of the why they panned out or didn’t pan out as an NFL signal caller.

Chad Pennington- 2000 18^th pick overall by the New York Jets

Only made three appearances in his first two years in the league before taking over as the starting quarterback week 5 of 2002. He would impress in his early years as a starter and get a huge contract extension, but that extension would be a bit of a mistake on the Jets part because Pennington dealt with a lot of injuries during that time span. He did win comeback player of the year in 2006 and again in 2008, after being cut by the Jets and going to the Dolphins, and also finished second in MVP voting in 2008 after leading the Dolphins to a playoff appearance only one year after they went 1-15. He also is the NFL’s all time leader in completion percentage with 66% so despite injuries, Pennington has proved to be a great and tough quarterback. After getting hurt again in 2009 and going down for the season, Pennington has a chance to win his 3^rd NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2010, though it likely won’t be in Miami.

Michael Vick- 2001 1^st pick overall by the Atlanta Falcons

Vick played sparingly in his first year in the NFL, playing in 8 games and making 2 starts, as he was regarded as a bit of a project out of Virginia Tech because of his unorthodox style of play. Though he never became known as a guy with a great arm, 75.9 career QB rating, he quickly became known as one of the more exciting and unique players in the NFL, a guy who can do so many different things in so many different ways from the quarterback position. He has 3954 career rushing yards on 553 carries and 23 touchdowns on the ground and made the Pro Bowl in 2002, his first year as a starter. He would also make the Pro Bowl in 2004 and 2005. He signed a record contract extension in 2004, but this extension would proof to be a mistake, as Vick was suspended and jailed throughout the 2007 and 2008 seasons for dog fighting. He is currently a backup quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles and has looked decent in small amounts of playing time. He is expected to get a shot at a starting job somewhere in the league next season.

David Carr- 2002 1^st pick overall by the Houston Texans

He made all 16 starts at quarterback for the expansion Houston Texans in 2002 and did not fare well with a 62.8 QB rating. He was also sacked an NFL record 76 times and lost 21 fumbles on the season. He next four years weren’t much better. He would finish his 5 year career in Houston with 59 touchdowns to 65 picks and a career record of 23-53. He would be cut following the 2006 season and replaced with Matt Schaub. He spent 2007 as a backup for the Carolina Panthers and 2008 and 2008 as a backup for the New York Giants. He has made 4 starts, all in 2007 with Carolina after Jake Delhomme went down with an injury, since being cut, but in those starts he has shown no signs of improvement.

Joey Harrington- 2002 3^rd overall by the Detroit Lions

Harrington made 14 starts in his rookie season for the Lions and had a miserable season, barely completing 50% of his passes, and throwing for 16 picks to 12 touchdowns. His next three years as the starter in Detroit, not much better. His record as a starter in Detroit was 18-37 and after the 2005 season he was shipped in Miami to backup veteran Daunte Culpepper, for a mere 6^th round pick. Harrington was forced back into the starting lineup in 2006 after Culpepper got hurt and did have a record of 5-6 as a starter that year, which isn’t awful. However, his 68.5% QB rating for the year, plus one game where he QB rating was 0.0, is awful. He was not resigned after 2006 and then signed a 2 year 6 million dollar deal to be the 3^rd string quarterback in Atlanta behind Michael Vick and Chris Redman. After Vick was suspended and Jailed in 2007, Harrington saw action in 12 games, but again had more interceptions than touchdowns and was cut after training camp in 2008 in a salary cap move. He had three small stints with the Saints in 2008 as a 3^rd string quarterback, but never saw game action and is currently a free agent.

Patrick Ramsey- 2002 32^nd pick overall by the Washington Redskins

He started 9 games as a rookie for Washington in 2002 with minimal success,  a 71.8 QB rating. He took over as the full time starter in 2003 and started 11 games before going down with an injury. Statistically, his 75.8 QB rating was decent in 2003, but he took so many sacks that he didn’t survive the season. He lost his starting job in 2004 to Mark Brunell, who new coach Joe Gibbs brought in. He took over for Brunell late in 2004 after Brunell got hurt and earned his starting job back for 2005, but lost it quickly after getting hurt and only threw 25 passes in 2005. He was traded to the Jets for a 6^th round pick in 2006, but only threw 1 pass as Chad Pennington’s backup. He was cut after the 2006 season and has seen minimal playing time in recent years as a backup in Denver and currently in Detroit.

Carson Palmer- 2003 1^st overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals

A perfect example of the redshirt year working to someone’s advantage, Carson Palmer didn’t make a throw his rookie year behind Comeback Player of the Year Jon Kitna, but took over in his 2nd season and has a career 88.4 QB rating with 126 touchdowns to 78 picks.

Bryon Leftwich- 2003 7^th overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals

He took over as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback in week 4 of 2003 after Mark Brunell got hurt. He had four decent years as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback with QB ratings of 73.0, 82.2, 89.3, 79.0 but lost his starting job midway through 2006 after 3 and a half seasons of injuries and an all around lack of grasp of the offense. He was brought in to backup Joey Harrington in Atlanta in 2007, but only saw action in 3 games and was cut after the season. He then went to Pittsburgh and saw little action as a backup, but won a Super Bowl ring. He then went to Tampa Bay in 2007 and saw 3 miserable starts before being benched for Josh Johnson. He has not been heard from since.

Kyle Boller- 2003 19^th overall pick by the Baltimore Ravens

Started 9 games as a rookie before getting hurt. He started 16 games in his 2^ndyear and put up average numbers with a QB rating of 70.9. He saw action in 9 games in 2005, but missed 7 games with turf toe. He lost his starting job in 2006 when Steve McNair was traded to the Ravens and only threw 55 passes in that season. When McNair got hurt in 2007, Boller took over again but 10 picks to 9 touchdowns and a 75.1 QB rating were not enough. After the 5-11 Ravens fired coach Brian Billick, Boller was out as starter and replaced with rookie Joe Flacco. Boller did not make a throw in 2008 because of a season ending injury and then was cut after the season and went to St. Louis, were he started a few games for an injured Marc Bulger, but has been unimpressive. His quarterback rating for his career has been 70.9.

QB Rex Grossman- 2003 22^nd overall pick by the Chicago Bears

Grossman only saw action in 8 games in his first 3 years, but that was not by coach’s choice. He had two major injuries in 2004 and 2005. He looked fairly bad in minimal action in his first three years throwing 4 touchdowns to 6 picks, but was named the Bears starting quarterback in 2006 once fully healthy. He started all 16 games and took the Bears to a Super Bowl, but statistically was very poor with a 54.6% completion percentage and a QB rating of 73.9. He lost his starting job several times to veteran Brian Griese in 2007 and in 2008 was the clear cut #2 quarterback after losing his starting job to Kyle Orton. He is currently a backup for the Houston Texans and has a career QB rating of 69.5.

QB Eli Manning- 2004 1^st overall pick by the San Diego Chargers (traded to New York Giants)

Eli Manning- Played sparingly in his rookie year, throwing 197 passes behind injury prone starter Kurt Warner and then took over in 2005 as the starter. He struggled early in his career, especially late in the season and at home in the Meadowlands, but worked through that and won the Super Bowl in 2008.

QB Phillip Rivers- 2004 4^th overall pick by the New York Giants (traded to San Diego Chargers)

Another perfect example, Rivers made 30 throws in his first two years as Drew Brees’ backup and then took over as the starter when Brees left to go to New Orleans and has started every game ever since and is one of the winningest starters in the NFL with a record of 44-18 as a starter.

Ben Roethlisberger- 2004 11^th overall pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Made 15 starts his rookie season, so he’s a bit of an exception, but his unorthodox style of play makes him an exception to many things. Plus, it should be noted that he only threw 295 passes his rookie year so he was used conservatively.

JP Losman- 2004 22^nd overall pick by the Buffalo Bills

Was slated to be the starter his rookie year, but broke his leg and only saw 5 passes that year as a backup. He took over as the starting quarterback in 2005 making 9 starts, but a sub 50% completion percentage got him benched late in the season. He was much improved in his 3^rd year with a QB rating of 84.9, but didn’t lead the Bills to the playoffs, so there was still some concerns about him. The Bills drafted Trent Edwards in the 3^rd round in 2007 and Edwards took over when Losman got hurt in 2007. Edwards was named the starting quarterback in 2008, while Losman played sparingly, 104 throws, as his backup. He became a free agent after 2008 and signed midseason with the Oakland Raiders to be their 3^rd string quarterback behind Charlie Frye and JaMarcus Russell following the injury of starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. He also spent some time in the UFL. His NFL career QB rating is 75.6 but he has more picks, 34, than touchdowns, 33.

Alex Smith- 2005 1^st overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers

He saw nine games of action in his first season in the NFL, but was never really named the starter plus had to deal with an injury as Smith was one of the worst statistical starting quarterbacks in the NFL in 2005, completing only 50.9% of his passes and throwing 11 picks to one single touchdown. His QB rating, though limited over 165 throws, was a horrendous 40.8. However, Smith was still named the starter for 2006 and had a decent season in 16 starts, with a QB rating of 74.8, but he threw for as many picks as touchdowns, and didn’t win a lot of games. Smith missed time with injury in 2007 and it appeared that the injury really affected his play on the field as he had the 2^nd worst QB rating of any starter in the league at 57.2. He was benched for journeyman JT O’Sullivan to start the 2008 season and did not see any game action. After more than a year on the bench, Smith took back his starting job this year from struggling veteran Shaun Hill and with a career high QB rating of 80.2, he looks poised to keep his job into 2010.

Aaron Rodgers- 2005 24^th overall pick by the Green Bay Packers

While Brett Favre was history, Aaron Rodgers was sitting and watching for three years. When Favre retired and then signed with the Jets in 2008, Rodgers took over for Favre and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has certainly been a lot better than fellow 2005 1st round pick Alex Smith, who was drafted ahead of him and thrown into action during his rookie season.

Jason Campbell- 2005 25^th overall pick by the Washington Redskins

Took over as starter of the Redskins 9 games into his 2nd season and has been statistically alright with a career QB rating of 82.2. He is actually having a career season with a QB rating of 87.0 this season, but because his team is not winning and his 5 year rookie contract expires this offseason, he may have to look for another job this offseason, though he has proven he deserves one.

Vince Young- 2006 3^rd overall pick by the Tennessee Titans

Made 13 starts as a rookie in 2006, but his numbers in 2006 and 2007 as a starter were not pretty as he threw 21 touchdowns to 30 picks and had respective QB ratings of 66.7 and 71.1. He was the starting quarterback again in 2008, but after getting hurt in week 1 and then going missing for a few hours, the coaching staff decided it would be better for his mental health if he stayed on the bench in 2008. He regained his job after more than a year on the bench during week 8 of 2009 and has had his best season as a pro with a 85.2 QB rating and 10 touchdowns to 6 picks.

Matt Leinart- 2006 10^th overall pick by the Arizona Cardinals

Made 11 starts as a rookie, but a completion percentage of 56.8% and more picks than touchdowns plus a 4-7 record were hardly impressive. He made 5 starts in 2007, but got hurt and was placed in IR. He was given a good chance to get his starting job back in the 2008 preseason, but he lost out badly by struggling in the preseason and Kurt Warner took the job and reestablished himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. Leinart has thrown 85 passes in his last 2 years as a backup, but figures to get a shot at the starting job when Warner retires. I’m going to say that we haven’t seen enough of him for him to be any sort of data here.

Jay Cutler- 2006 11^th overall pick by the Denver Broncos

Took over for Jake Plummer 11 games into his rookie season, and made 5 starts. However, with 43 picks over the last two seasons, even though he is an established starter, its safe to say that he’s not so good at learning the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and developing good chemistry with receivers on option routes, learning and reading complex coverages and reading complex blitzes. Just saying.

Started majority of rookie year/bad career: 5

Started majority of rookie year/decent career: 0

Started majority of rookie year/great career: 1

Didn’t start majority of rookie year/bad career: 2

Didn’t start majority of rookie year/decent career: 2

Didn’t start majority of rookie year/great career: 5

Started majority of rookie year, struggled, benched for more than a year, regained starting job: 2

Not enough career action yet to be a significant addition to this study: 1

This study plus the last one I did should be eye opening. Of the 9 first round pick quarterbacks that started more than 8 games as a rookie, only three didn’t bust, two of them, looked like busts to begin with but were benched and then got that redshirt year in their 3^rd or 4^th year and then came back a better and more mature quarterback. Of the 9 first round pick quarterbacks that didn’t start more than 8 games as a rookie, from 2000-2006, 6 are still starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and one, Chad Pennington, would be if it weren’t for an injury. 

The Seahawks are in a rare position this season. They are likely going to get a top ten pick as they are now 5-9 and recent lost at home to the previously 1-12 Buccaneers, but they already have a good veteran quarterback. For this reason, I believe they should take one, which may seem counter intuitive, but makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

Quarterback is single most cerebral position in football. You have to learn the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and develop good chemistry with receivers on option routes. You have to be able to learn and read complex coverages and read complex blitzes. For the most part, college quarterbacks don’t have to do this as much. A college quarterback, no matter who they are, needs a redshirt year, a year where they are nothing but a backup in case of injury, a year, where they can learn the offense, the routes, the receivers, the coverages, the blitzes, all of those things, in order to fully be a good quarterback in this league. Some require two.

However, with so many quarterbacks, especially elite quarterback prospects, being drafted early out of “we need this guy now” instead of, “well, we’ll need him in a year or two when he’s ready because we already have a decent veteran,” they lose this ability to have this necessary redshirt year. The list of guys thrown out into action in a major way in their rookie year include Joey Harrington (14 games his rookie year), David Carr (16 games), Patrick Ramsey (9 games), Kyle Boller (11 games) Byron Leftwich (15 games), Alex Smith (9 games), Vince Young (15 games).

Speaking of Smith and Young, both are doing decent jobs this season, in fact, of the three guys who have established themselves as guys who look like longterm starters in this league, Smith and Young are two of them. You might think this disproves my argument, but it actually strengths. Vince Young and Alex Smith both sucked when they came out. In two years before being benched, Vince Young threw 21 touchdowns to 30 picks and in three years before being benched, Alex Smith threw 19 touchdowns to 31 picks. However, after finally getting benched and finally sitting for a year plus, both have come back with good seasons and are establishing themselves as starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

The other of the three quarterbacks who have established themselves as starting quarterbacks this year is Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins. Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft and had the luxury of sitting behind veteran Chad Pennington for more than a year. When Pennington got hurt this year, Henne stepped in and has a decent quarterback rating of 73.9 and more importantly is 7-4 as a starter.

Need further proof? Let’s take a look at all of the quarterbacks who are established as starters in this leagues.

Chad Henne- See above.

Tom Brady- Brady sat his entire rookie season behind veteran Drew Bledsoe after being drafted in the 6th round of the 2000 draft with the exception of one game he played where he went 1 for 3 for 6 yards. He took over for Bledsoe after he got hurt in 2001 and has led the Pats to 3 Super Bowls wins since.

Mark Sanchez- Sanchez is a 2009 1st round pick who started his first game as a rookie this season. Its tough to make a decision on him yet, but he has 12 touchdowns to 20 picks this season so he has struggled.

Carson Palmer- A perfect example of the redshirt year working to someone’s advantage, Carson Palmer didn’t make a throw his rookie year behind Comeback Player of the Year Jon Kitna, but took over in his 2nd season and has a career 88.4 QB rating with 126 touchdowns to 78 picks.

Ben Roethlisberger- Made 15 starts his rookie season, so he’s a bit of an exception, but he’s unorthodox style of play makes him an exception to many things. Plus, it should be noted that he only threw 295 passes his rookie year so he was used conservatively.

Joe Flacco- Started all 16 games as a rookie making him a bit of an exception, but he’s still young and he has not extremely impressive so far. Plus, he plays in a conservative offense with a strong running game and a good defense to support him.

Peyton Manning- Started every game of his career making him an exception, but Manning is so good that he’s an exception to most things.

David Garrard- Played in 4 games as a rookie after being drafted in the 4th round of the 2002 draft, but only played in 17 games in his first 4 seasons, making 296 throws in that span of time so he definitely had plenty of sitting and watching time. He took over as the team’s starting quarterback midway through 2006 and hasn’t looked back, with a completion percentage of 60% or more in all 4 season since then and 56 touchdowns to 32 picks in that stretch of time.

Vince Young- See above

Matt Schaub- Spent 3 years on the bench behind Michael Vick throwing a limited 161 throws in those years, before being traded to the Texans in 2007 where he has been the starter ever since.

Phillip Rivers- Another perfect example, Rivers made 30 throws in his first two years as Drew Brees’ backup and then took over as the starter when Brees left to go to New Orleans and has started every game ever since and is one of the winningest starters in the NFL with a record of 44-18 as a starter.

Kyle Orton- Rushed into the starting lineup thanks to an injury to Rex Grossman during his rookie season and made 15 starts with a hideous 59.7 QB rating in those starts. Was not heard from until 2007 when he started 3 more games and then took over as the Bears’ starter in 2008 and then the Broncos starter in 2009 after being traded for Jay Cutler. His QB ratings for the last two years respectively are 79.6 and 89.2.

Matt Cassel- Didn’t make a start until week 2 of his 4th season after Tom Brady got hurt in 2008. He had a good 89.4 QB rating in 2008 and then was traded to Kansas City after Brady returned. He is currently the Chiefs starter and has a mediocre QB rating of 71.1, though he does have very little talent around him to help him out.

Tony Romo- Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003 with the Cowboys but did not see any game action until 2006 when he took over for veteran Drew Bledsoe. Romo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league since and is a two time Pro Bowler.

Donovan McNabb- Another exception, McNabb took over as starting quarterback midway through his rookie year and has had a successful career since, with the exception of a small history of injuries.

Eli Manning- Played sparingly in his rookie year, throwing 197 passes behind injury prone starter Kurt Warner and then took over in 2005 as the starter. He struggled early in his career, especially late in the season and at home in the Meadowlands, but worked through that and won the Super Bowl in 2008.

Jason Campbell- Took over as starter of the Redskins 9 games into his 2nd season and has been statistically alright with a career QB rating of 82.2. He is actually having a career season with a QB rating of 87.0 this season, but because his team is not winning and his 5 year rookie contract expires this offseason, he may have to look for another job this offseason, though he has proven he deserves one.

Brett Favre- Threw 4 passes in his rookie season in Atlanta, then was traded to Green Bay directly after his rookie season. And the rest is history.

Aaron Rodgers- While Brett Favre was making that history, Aaron Rodgers was sitting and watching for three years. When Favre retired and then signed with the Jets in 2008, Rodgers took over for Favre and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has certainly been a lot better than fellow 2005 1st round pick Alex Smith, who was drafted ahead of him and thrown into action during his rookie season.

Jay Cutler- Took over for Jake Plummer 11 games into his rookie season, and made 5 starts. However, with 43 picks over the last two seasons, even though he is an established starter, its safe to say that he’s not so good at learning the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and developing good chemistry with receivers on option routes, learning and reading complex coverages and reading complex blitzes. Just saying

Matt Stafford- Its too early to make a judgment on the 2009 1st round pick, who made his first start during week 1 of his rookie season, but throwing 20 picks to 13 touchdowns, despite throwing 5 touchdowns in one game against the lowly Browns, is not a good start.

Drew Brees- Played in one game in his rookie season with the Chargers and took over as the starting quarterback for Doug Flutie in 2002. Though he lost his starting job for a few weeks in 2003 and never established himself as a dominant starting quarterback in San Diego, after he left the Chargers for the Saints four years ago, Brees has been one of the best in the business.

Matt Ryan- Ryan started every game in his rookie season, but had a lot of help from a strong running game, a decent defense, and a weak schedule as he put up a 87.7 QB rating. This year, still the starter, he has struggled some, as their running game hasn’t been as strong nor has their defense, and their schedule is one of the toughest in the NFL. He has a quarterback rating of 79.1 this season and is averaging a lowly 6.4 YPA and I believe he is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Josh Freeman- Hasn’t started every game as a rookie this season, but has started 7 games, and has 9 touchdowns to 14 picks, so, even though its still early, Freeman’s career has not gotten off to the best start.

Kurt Warner- Signed with the Rams as a 27 year old undrafted free agent in 1998, made 11 throws in his “rookie” year, and took over as their starter in 1999, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. He has had his ups and downs since, but has made two more trips to the Super Bowl, and is a borderline Hall of Famer at this point with 207 touchdowns to 138 picks and a career 93.7 QB rating.

Matt Hasselbeck- Spent a year on the practice squad and 2 years backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay before being traded to the Seahawks, where he took over for started Trent Dilfer in 2002. He has made three Pro Bowls in his career as a starter, which could be ending soon and hopefully a good young quarterback is waiting on the bench for when he leaves Seattle or retires.

Alex Smith- See above

To make sense of all that I have broken it down into categories and categorized each player in one of those categories.

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an average career as a starter: 2

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an above average career as a starter: 3

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an average career as a starter: 1

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an above average career as a starter: 5       

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an average career as a starter: 4

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an above average career as a starter: 6

Still a rookie, too soon to tell: 3

Started a majority of their rookie season, sat for a period of more than a year after that, then regained a starter’s job: 3

Of the 24 non-rookie established starting quarterbacks profiled, 10 did not take over as starter until midway through their 2nd season or later, and another 6 did not start until late in their rookie season or early in their 2nd. 8 did start the majority of their rookie season, but of those 8, 2 are currently 2nd year players and 3 completely sucked and were later benched before regaining their job. The other three, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning, started a majority of their rookie season and hit very few speed bumps in their career and are now Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks, but they are extremely rare (3 out of 24). All 3 rookie starters this season have more picks than touchdowns showing that this trend could be continuing.

With drafting quarterbacks, the right move is the counter-intuitive one. Draft them when you don’t need them, or before you need them. Seattle is likely going to have a top ten pick this year and with current starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck being 34 years old, now is a perfect time for them to draft a big upside project quarterback, like Ryan Mallett, who I have said has Peyton Manning esque upside given the right amount of time and good coaching. Sam Bradford, who has the skills, but needs to learn a pro style offense, is also a good fit. 

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Bye Weeks

Good ideas in bold

Week 4

QB1s on bye: Tony Romo, Brett Favre

Vs. Seattle: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

Week 5

QB1s on bye: Tom Brady

Vs. Jacksonville: Trent Edwards/Brian Brohm/Ryan Fiztpatrick

Vs. Buffalo: David Garrard

Vs. Cleveland: Matt Ryan

Vs. St. Louis: Matt Stafford

Vs. Detroit: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

Week 6

QB1s on bye: Carson Palmer

Vs. Cleveland: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. Oakland: Alex Smith

Vs. Jacksonville: Vince Young

Week 7

QB1s on bye: Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub

Vs. Jacksonville: Matt Cassel

Vs. Miami: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. St. Louis: Josh Freeman

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. Oakland: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

Week 8

QB1s with byes: Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb

Vs. Kansas City: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. St. Louis: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore

Week 9

QB1s with byes: Donovan McNabb

Vs. Detroit: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Oakland: Matt Cassel

Week 10

QB1s with byes: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Jason Campbell

Vs. Detroit: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. Cleveland: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Miami: Vince Young

Vs. Kansas City: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. St. Louis: Alex Smith

High Upside Backups

Matt Stafford

Josh Freeman

Mark Sanchez

Alex Smith

Vince Young

Chad Henne

Matt Moore

Drafting a backup quarterback is often overlooked, but it can actually have a huge impact on your fantasy team. With any luck, you’ll only have to use your backup quarterback once throughout the season (your QB1’s bye week). How can you make sure that your team doesn’t miss a beat with your QB2 in the lineup? Make sure he has an easy matchup during the bye week of your start. First, we must determine which are the easy matchups (I’ll pick 8).

Jacksonville

Jacksonville ranked 32^nd in terms of YPA allowed, 26^th in terms of passing touchdowns allowed and 28^th in terms of passing yards allowed last year. They added help through free agency at two linebacker positions and the strong safety position, but they didn’t upgrade their pass rush, their corners, or the free safety position so it’s safe to say they’ll be among the 8^{worst pass defenses again this year.}

San Francisco

San Francisco ranked 23^rd in terms of passing yards allowed, 21^st in terms of passing touchdowns allowed, and 24^th in terms of YPA allowed last year. Nate Clements is gone, which will weaken their pass defense. Their schedule will be a bit tougher this year too. I think they fall into the bottom 8.

Washington

Washington ranked 31^st in terms of passing yards allowed, 13^th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 28^th in terms of yards per attempt allowed. I know they added Josh Wilson and OJ Atogwe in the offseason, as well as Ryan Kerrigan as a pass rusher, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to get them out of the bottom 8. This team is going to be pretty terrible as a whole.

Denver

Denver was 25^th in passing yards allowed, 24^th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 30^th in yards per attempt allowed. I know they added Rahim Moore, but he’s just a rookie. Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman are both another year older and on the wrong side of 30. Their pass rush should be better with Elvis Dumervil coming back and Von Miller coming in as a rookie, but they should still be pretty bad against the pass.

Cincinnati

They were 15^th in passing yards allowed, 20^th in yards per attempt allowed and 8^th in passing touchdowns allowed, but Johnathan Joseph is gone and that’s a huge loss for their pass defense. They won’t be that great against the pass at all this year.

Oakland

Oakland was 2^nd in passing yards allowed, but 19^th in yards per attempt allowed and that’s a more telling statistic. They were also 28^th in passing touchdowns allowed. Plus, Nnamdi Asomugha is gone and Stanford Routt and Michael Huff might be replicate their big contract years after getting paid.

Dallas

Dallas was 26^th in passing yards allowed, 32^nd in passing touchdowns allowed, and 29^th yards per attempt allowed and did nothing to fix the cornerback position. Abram Elam is an upgrade at free safety over Alan Ball, but that’s not saying much. Terence Newman is also another year older and Dallas will be playing from ahead more, meaning more pass attempts by their opponents.

Minnesota

They were 10^th in total yards allowed and 9^th in yards per attempt allowed, so I’m going out on a limb here, but they don’t have a ton of talent in the secondary and with Ray Edwards gone, their pass rush will be weaker. This is just a guess, but I think they have a very bad year against the pass this year. They were 23^rd in terms of passing touchdowns allowed last year.

In order to qualify for this, players must be available (on average) in round 10 or later, as you don’t want to draft a backup quarterback before then.

Week 5

Quarterbacks with byes: Tony Romo, Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco

Possible backups:

Kevin Kolb (vs. Minnesota)

Andy Dalton/Bruce Gradkowski (vs. Jacksonville)

David Garrard/Blaine Gabbert (vs. Cincinnati)

You always want to go with the guy you’re 99% sure (you never know with injuries) will be the starter during that week. David Garrard will probably be Jacksonville’s starter week 5, but they drafted Gabbert 10^th overall last year, so it’s not a certainly or anything. As for Dalton/Gradkowski in Cincinnati, it’s anyone’s guess, plus neither or very good anyway. By default, that leaves Kolb, a very nice high upside QB2 who would pair well with Bradford (a high upside QB1). That doesn’t mean, however, he’s not the best choice if your starter is Joe Flacco or Tony Romo. He is. He just pairs with Bradford the best.

Week 6

Philip Rivers

Matt Stafford (vs. San Francisco)

Colt McCoy (vs. Oakland)

Jay Cutler (vs. Minnesota)

Philip Rivers owners have three solid choices. Stafford is the riskier one, but he has the most reward. He plays the easiest of the three defenses and has the most talent, but can he even last until week 6 with his injury history. Cutler is the safest option and McCoy is neither safe nor high upside. Consider him a 3^rd option should Stafford and Cutler both be off the board. You can get away with McCoy as your QB2, but there are better options. Note that Stafford gets drafted on average in the middle of the 9^th. I made an exception for him here because of his upside and because he could slip into round 10 easily, but just note that.

Week 7

Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Michael Vick

Joe Flacco (vs. Jacksonville)

Cam Newton/Jimmy Clausen/Derek Anderson (vs. Washington)

Chad Henne/Matt Moore (vs. Denver)

Matt Cassel (vs. Oakland)

Sam Bradford (vs. Dallas)

Bradford would be the best option here. I have him highest rated of this group and he just drafted lower than Flacco, on average. Flacco, on average, goes late 9^th, which makes him another exception here. He could fall into round 10. It’s just more likely Bradford does. I don’t like Cassel’s fantasy prospects at all this year. He has a tougher schedule this year and doesn’t throw for a lot of yards anyway. You can throw out Carolina’s quarterback and Miami’s. We don’t know who will be the starter in those cases and none of those 5 are that good anyway.

I like the Manning/Bradford pairing. Manning is a safer low end QB1 while Bradford has more risk, but more upside. I like the combination, especially since, on Bradford’s bye, week 5, Manning faces Seattle so this strategy works both ways for that duo. If you miss out on a top quarterback, mixing and matching Bradford and Manning might not be a bad idea.

Week 8

Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Freeman

Colt McCoy (vs. San Francisco)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Washington)

Matt Stafford (vs. Denver)

Charlie Whitehurst/Tarvaris Jackson (vs. Cincinnati)

Cam Newton/Derek Anderson/Jimmy Clausen (vs. Minnesota)

We throw out Seattle’s mess and Carolina’s mess and we’re left with 3. Stafford has the most upside. However, Fitzpatrick against Washington is the safer bet here, while McCoy is a decent, but not great 3^rd option if you miss out on the first 3 because you were too busy snatching up high upside sleepers or something.

Week 9

Matt Stafford

Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick (vs. Washinton) 

John Beck/Rex Grossman (vs. San Francisco)

Jason Campbell (vs. Denver)

Kyle Orton/Tim Tebow (vs. Oakland)

Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker (vs. Cincinnati)

You might out of luck with this strategy if you have Stafford. However, Stafford is my 15th quarterback so you should probably pair him with a low upside low end QB1 (Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, etc.) or a low upside QB2 (Jay Cutler). That might apply to Jason Campbell, but it’s risky.

Week 11

Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees

Options galore for this week. Flacco on average goes late 9^th so I think we can throw him out in favor of cheaper options. Kolb is my favorite here, followed by McNabb and Sanchez. McCoy and Campbell aren’t great and Washington’s situation at quarterback is obviously a mess so you don’t want to touch it.

Colt McCoy (vs. Jacksonville)

Kevin Kolb (vs. San Francisco)

Mark Sanchez (vs. Denver)

Joe Flacco (vs. Cincinnati)

Donovan McNabb (vs. Oakland)

John Beck/Rex Grossman (vs. Dallas)

Jason Campbell (vs. Minnesota)

Spotlight #1: Wisconsin C Peter Konz

Spotlight #2: Wisconsin CB Antonio Fenelus 

1st quarter

14:47: Konz helps open a huge hole for Ball on a long run.

12:58: Konz helps open another big hole up the middle for Ball.

12:12: Konz helps double team in pass protection.

8:51: Konz powers a guy off the line one on one.

3:24: Konz with a great one on one pass block, held block the longest of any of the offensive linemen on a touchdown pass.

1:53: Fenelus has one on one in the fringe of the end zone, quarterback looks his way, nothing there, has to look to his 2^nd option and forces it to him in tight coverage, could have been picked.

1:20: Fenelus explodes up to get a tackle for loss, nice open field tackle to force a field goal after a receiver catches the ball in the flat.

1:01: Konz runs well to block on an outside run, not a lot of centers can do that.

2^nd quarter

12:57: Konz helps blow another inside hole for Ball. Ball is having an awesome game, running both inside, thanks in part to his blocking, but also on the outside.

12:14: Konz allows Ball to basically walk into the end zone up the middle for a 1 yard touchdown.

12:05: Fenelus dominated on a block downfield on an outside run. Pushed way downfield with ease like a rag doll by a receiver. Solid pickup by the Purdue back.

10:47: Fenelus thrown on deep, may have gotten away with pass interference, but incomplete and a deflection.

10:36: Konz does a good job of blocking downfield on a sizeable run.

10:03: Konz whiffs on an outside run, still moved well, good effort as well.

9:35: Konz helps Wisconsin convert 3^rd and 1 with a quarterback sneak. Wilson fumbles, recovered by Purdue.

9:28: Wisconsin linebacker Mike Taylor with another big play, interception after a deflection by the cornerback. The junior linebacker is having a great year, but likely won’t declare.

9:19: Konz matched up with Purdue’s Kawann Short, their best defensive player and a junior. He wins the match up. They’ve rarely matched up, but Konz is winning the battles.

7:49: Good hand fight by Konz one on one.

7:19: Konz with good pass protection one on one, just like the rest of Wisconsin’s line on this play, nothing open downfield so Wilson eventually runs with it for a good gain.

5:54: Fenelus with poor motor on a reverse.

2:59: Konz leads the way for Montee Ball up the middle for a 3 yard touchdown. Also flawless pass protection by him on this drive. 35-10 Wisconsin. Konz is having a dominant game and this Wisconsin offense is just having their way with Purdue’s defense early.

2:09: Fenelus in on a tackle for loss on a run play.

0:52: Fenelus thrown on, way overthrown deep, Fenelus one of multiple defenders well covering receiver deep.

0:46: Fenelus almost gets another tackle for loss on a pass in the flat, but receiver laterals it at the last second. Big gain by Purdue on the trick play.

0:33: Fenelus well blocked on an outside run.

0:29: This time PI is called on Fenelus in the end zone in one on one. Smart actually to play him tight because PI had not been being called much earlier. Seemed like refs were letting them play and on a short yardage play in the end zone, not a huge yardage penalty. Actually a bit of a savvy play to prevent a touchdown, but the fact remains that he was beat a bit on the play.