These are not my set in stone predictions. Those will be coming in about 2-3 weeks after the bulk of free agency is done. However, these are preliminary predictions, using trends in recent years (since 2003) to help determine what might happen next season.
Trend 1: In the past 8 seasons, 13 teams have gotten a first round bye one year and not made the playoffs the next year (Minnesota and San Diego did so from 2009-2010). There has been one such case of that in each of the past 8 seasons. Atlanta, Chicago, New England, and Pittsburgh were the 4 teams who got first round byes last year and if history is any indication, one or more of them won’t even make the playoffs in 2011. Let’s take a look at those 4 teams and see which ones of them could potentially not make the playoffs next year.
Atlanta- They play in the toughest division in football with New Orleans and Tampa Bay and the division has never had a repeat champion in the 9 years of its existence. 3 of their offensive linemen are free agents and Michael Turner wore down late last year. They also didn’t upgrade their pass rush and will count once again on John Abraham as their primary pass rusher, who is 33. He had 13 of their 31 sacks last season. They were also exposed late last year, including losing two home games late.
They open the season at Chicago, home versus Philadelphia, at Tampa Bay, at Seattle, and versus Green Bay. That’s 4 playoffs teams from 2010 and one team (Tampa Bay) that didn’t make the playoffs, but won 10 games anyway. They play 8 teams that won 8 games or more last season and also have to go to Seattle (never easy), into Detroit (6 wins last year, but a young up and comer), into Houston (arguably the off-season’s most improved team), and they also play Jacksonville, who was 8-8 last year.
Their passing game will be better with the addition of Julio Jones, but, across the board, I think this is a worse team than last year. I’m not saying they’ll suck or anything, but it’s not inconvincible, given their tough schedule, how they were exposed late last year, their potential losses on the offensive front, and their competitive division, that they go 9-7, finish 3rd in their division and miss the playoffs.
Likelihood of missing playoffs: 5/10
New England- They had the league’s best record last year, but they’re riding a 3 game playoff losing streak and the Jets showed how to beat them last year in the playoffs. However, this is the most adaptable team in the NFL so the way to beat them last year is not going to be the way to beat them this year.
They have the league’s best quarterback and, even with their playoff struggles, this is still the league’s best regular season team. They also get two starters back on defense, Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden, who missed all of last year with injuries, and they added more young talent through the draft. I can’t see them missing the playoffs.
Likelihood of missing playoffs: 1/10
Pittsburgh- The last two times they made the Super Bowl, they missed the playoffs the next year. This offseason has had as many distractions as any of their past post-Super Bowl off-seasons, with Rashard Mendenhall’s 9/11 controversy, James Harrison’s foot in mouth controversy, Hines Ward’s decision to be on Dancing with the Stars, and Hines Ward’s DUI arrest. Also, Super Bowl runner ups have had a tough time in recent years in their next season. I think they could definitely go 3 for 3 in the “make the Super Bowl and then miss the playoffs the next year” category in the Big Ben era.
Likelihood of missing playoffs: 7/10
Chicago- Chicago had 11 wins last year. They beat Detroit by 5 on Calvin Johnson’s touchdown/non-touchdown. They beat Dallas when they sucked to start the season and Tony Romo forgot how many downs there were remaining when he was going for a game tying touchdown. They beat Green Bay by 3 when Green Bay committed 18 penalties.
They beat Carolina by 17, but who didn’t? They beat Buffalo in a game where both teams scored 3 touchdowns and no field goals (Chicago, TD, TD, TD + 2 PT conversion Buffalo, TD missed extra point, TD failed 2 PT conversion, TD). They beat Minnesota twice. They beat Miami and their 3rd string quarterback and patchwork offensive line because of injuries. They beat Philadelphia by 5 without Asante Samuel. They beat Detroit and the Jets by 4. With any different luck, they could have easily been an 8 win team. Now they have to deal with up and coming Detroit in their division. Couldn’t you see them going 7-9, finishing 3rd in their division and missing the playoffs.
Likelihood of missing playoffs: 8/10
I say Chicago and Pittsburgh miss the playoffs and Atlanta maybe misses the playoffs. More on that later.
Trend 2: In each of the last 8 seasons, there has been at least one non-playoff team improve at least 4 games and get a first round bye (Atlanta did so in 2010). In that span, 10 non-playoff teams have improved at least 5 games and gotten a first round bye. Who are candidates to do that this year? Here are my picks in order of likelihood.
San Diego
San Diego had the #1 offense AND the #1 defense last year and STILL missed the playoffs thanks to bad luck and crappy special teams. They won 9 games last year. If they put everything together this year finally, I think they have the talent to win 13 games and get a first round bye. Maybe missing the playoffs last year will be the wakeup call they needed to not to sleep walk through the first half of the season.
Dallas
After Wade Phillips was fired, this team went 5-3 to finish 6-10 and that was with Jon Kitna with sprinkles of Stephen McGee mixed in at quarterback. Tony Romo is back and healthy and with the addition of Tyron Smith at right tackle through the draft, Romo’s protection is as good as it’s ever been, if not better, which is a good sign for him playing 16 games this year. However, I don’t think they have the defense to win the 12+ games necessary to get a first round bye. Their defense actually got worse after Wade Phillips was fired and they haven’t done much in the offseason to fix that.
Houston
I think this is the most improved team this offseason. They get DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin back from injury and they added 3 starters, in my opinion, through the draft in JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, and Brandon Harris. Kareem Jackson has another year under his belt and hopes to bounce back from his awful rookie year. Glover Quin is changing positions to free safety and he can’t possibly as bad at that as he was as a cornerback. They also added Wade Phillips as a coordinator. Phillips may be a terrible coach, but he’s a hell of a coordinator. They could also make a splash in free agency for a safety like Eric Weddle or a cornerback like Nnamdi Asomugha.
They had a bottom 5 defense almost across the board last year. They have never had a problem offensively, with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and now Owen Daniels returning from injury. They also have a great offensive line and one of the most balanced offenses in the league. I think they could definitely put everything all together this year and win 9-11 games and make the playoffs, but to get a first round bye, they’ll have to win the division and has long as #18 is under center for the Colts, I can’t see that happening.
St. Louis
They have by far the best quarterback in their own division in Sam Bradford (even if Arizona gets Kevin Kolb) and now they have given him a great offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels and receivers in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round of the draft. He also gets Danario Alexander, Donnie Avery, and Mark Clayton back from injury and their schedule is still not very hard. They won 7 games last year so could they realistically win 12 games this year and get a first round bye? Maybe. However, I’d rather pick teams like the Saints or the Packers to get the byes in the NFC so I’m saying no to St. Louis.
Detroit
They only won 6 games last year, but they finished the season on 4 game winning streak, they’re getting their starting quarterback back from injury, they drafted really well, and they have money to play with in free agency. However, I’m not crazy enough to think they can take the division from Green Bay and get one of the two first round byes in the NFC.
I’m saying San Diego wins the AFC West, 13 games and gets one of the two AFC byes. I can definitely see Dallas, Houston, and St. Louis making the playoffs (more on that later), but I’m not quite sold on the Lions yet.
Trend 3: In each of the last 8 years, at least one team per year that won 5 or fewer games in the previous season has made the playoffs in the next season (last year it was Kansas City). Last year 6 teams won 5 or fewer games. They were Carolina, Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Cleveland. I’m throwing out both Carolina and Cincinnati because they have rookie quarterbacks coming out of weak quarterback class and a lockout (not to mention tough divisions).
Buffalo is one of 11 teams that returns their starting quarterback, both coordinators, and head coach, which will definitely give them an advantage heading out of this lockout, but I can’t see them having the talent to make the playoffs. That leaves Denver, Arizona, and Cleveland. I thought about Arizona. They somehow won 5 whole games last season even though they had atrocious quarterback play. I can’t see them having worse quarterback play this year and they could get the quarterback prize of the offseason, Kevin Kolb. However, even with him, I think this would be the 2nd best team in the NFC West after St. Louis. St. Louis would still have the most proven quarterback and the most talented overall team and I can’t see two playoff teams coming from the NFC West. That would be too weird.
I thought about Denver. They have a cupcake schedule (the Jets, the Patriots, the Packers, and the Chargers twice are their only tough opponents unless you count the overrated Chiefs twice, and the overrated Bears, and the Nnamdi Asomugha less Raiders), they played well down the stretch last year after they put Tim Tebow at quarterback, they add Elvis Dumervil (injury), Von Miller (draft), and Rahim Moore (draft) to their defense, they have an almost unfair home field advantage up a mile high. Couldn’t you see them being the Kansas City Chiefs, dominating at home and dominating terrible teams and winning the division with 10 games? Maybe, but that will only happen if San Diego collapses again and I can’t see them doing that two years in a row. That leaves…
THE CLEVELAND BROWNS
Think about it. I have the Steelers falling out of the playoffs. That leaves a spot for potentially another AFC North team to sneak in. Colt McCoy looked like a legitimate franchise quarterback (beating New England and New Orleans) before he got hurt or hit a rookie wall or whatever, either way, he’s not a rookie this year and he’s healthy. Their receivers will be better. They drafted well. They still have a good offensive line. They have two good running backs in Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty. Besides, in the past few months, the Indians have jumped out into first place, the Cavaliers got two picks in the top 4, the Heat lost the finals, maybe the Sports Gods decided that “The Decision” was too much and decided to stop kicking Cleveland in the balls. If any 5 win or less team makes the playoffs this year, I think it’s this one.
Trend 4: In the past 8 years, 25 teams have won 5 games more than the previous season and made the playoffs when they previously had not. With the exception of last year (1), there have been at least 3 of those teams in every season of the last 8. I mentioned Dallas and Houston earlier. In order to qualify, both would have to win 11 games. I think that’s a definite possibility. We also have Cleveland, 5 wins, sneaking into the playoffs with 10 so that counts as well.
Trend 5: In the past 8 years, at least 3 teams per year, and 28 teams total, have lost 4 or more games than the season before and missed the playoffs when they previously had not. In 2010, these teams wwere Minnesota, Dallas, Cincinnati, San Diego, and Arizona. Last year’s 12 playoff teams were New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Seattle.
I think, automatically, you can throw out New England, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and New Orleans as teams that will definitely make the playoffs again. I think we can throw out Philadelphia, the Jets, and Baltimore as well. Even if they did miss the playoffs, Philadelphia will win more than 7 games, the Jets will win more than 7 games, and Baltimore will win more than 8. That leaves 5 teams, Seattle, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh.
I don’t think Seattle will make the playoffs again, but for them to qualify for this, they’d have to win a mere 3 games. I think the magic of Qwest can guarantee them at least 4 wins. Let’s look at the other 4.
Pittsburgh- We’ve already established this team as a team that will miss the playoffs, but for them to qualify for this, they’d have to win a mere 8 games. Will Pittsburgh go 8-8? I think there’s a distinct possibility. Baltimore won 12 games last year and I have Cleveland winning 10 and making the playoffs. I could definitely see Pittsburgh finishing in 3rd with 8.
Chicago- Again, we’ve established I don’t see this as a playoff team. However, are they a 7 win team? I said earlier with normal luck, they win 8 games last year, so 7 wouldn’t be a crazy stretch with Green Bay and Detroit being better.
Kansas City- I can definitely see this team winning 6 games or less. They play 11 games against teams that finished .500 or better last year. Last year they played 7 (including playoffs) and went 2-5. Their two wins, Jacksonville (8-8) and their 3rd string quarterback, and San Diego in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards. They also lost Charlie Weis, their offensive coordinator, and I highly doubt Jamaal Charles has as good of a season as he had last year. In addition to those 11 games, they also play Detroit, a young up and comer.
Atlanta- I said we’d get back to them. I think they could easily finish 9-7 and 3rd in their division and I stand by that. I think they too finish 4 games or worse than last year, along with Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Kansas City.
That leaves these teams in the playoffs in the AFC. New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Houston, Cleveland. And these teams in the NFC. Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Dallas, and…Tampa Bay. I know I haven’t mentioned them much yet, but if Atlanta’s out, I think Tampa Bay is in. They won 10 games last year and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown after inserting LeGarrette Blount into the starting lineup (hanging within a touchdown of Atlanta twice and Baltimore). They also beat New Orleans.
All of this was with Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Aqib Talib, and Cody Grimm missing significant time with injury. All of those players will be back except Aqib Talib (legal troubles). They also drafted well and had the league’s youngest team to boot last year. They also, in my mind, are the favorites to land Nnamdi Asomugha. I know they had an easy schedule last year and New Orleans was their only .500+ win and they won’t sneak up on anyone this season, but I think they can split with New Orleans and Atlanta, sweep the season series with Carolina, go 4-2 in the division and 6-4 outside the division (toughest non-divisional games, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Houston, Chicago, Dallas, Jacksonville, Detroit).
Let’s take a look at what this leaves us with (playoff teams in bold).
AFC East
New England 13-3
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 6-10
AFC North
Baltimore 12-4
Cleveland 10-6
Pittsburgh 8-8
Cincinnati 4-12
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4
Houston 11-5
Jacksonville 5-11
Tennessee 3-13
AFC West
San Diego 13-3
Denver 6-10
Kansas City 5-11
Oakland 5-11
NFC East
Dallas 11-5
Philadelphia 10-6
NY Giants 8-8
Washington 3-13
NFC North
Green Bay 13-3
Detroit 8-8
Chicago 7-9
Minnesota 4-12
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4
Tampa Bay 10-6
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 4-12
NFC West
St. Louis 10-6
Arizona 7-9
San Francisco 6-10
Seattle 4-12
I’ll use these standings to post an NFL Mock Draft in the next few days and get my legitimate predictions up as soon as the bulk of free agency is over with.
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