By Packrphan 

Favremageddon 2010 – Part Deux is upon us. The Tempest in the Twin Cities. The Oh-The-Humanity in the Humpty Dump. The Overused Hyperbole in…well… 

OK, you get the idea. The Green Bay Packers meet the Minnesota Vikings in the second of their two 2010 showdowns. Round #1 went in favor of the Pack. Round #2? That should also go in favor of the Packers, and the line seems to reflect that: the Pack is favored by 3 despite the game being played on the ‘Queens home field where they are very good and the Packers usually aren’t.

But we all know that these games in the Humpty Dump are never easy. It is one of the loudest venues in all of sports. It is made even louder this time around with all the Minnesota fans shouting for the firing of head coach Brad Childress. But that’s a whole other story. The key thing for the Packers will be to get up early and take the crowd out of it. If you are the Packers, you want them booing their own team not creating signal calling problems for you.

Coming out of the bye week, and with time to re-gear and build upon the momentum and offensive rhythm established over the last three games, the offense should click. The defense, with Cullen Jenkins working without the club on his broken hand for the first time since the first game, and the possibility of Ryan Picket returning in even limited play, should pick right up where it left off. Contain RB Adrian Peterson and pressure Ol’ #4. The Packers’ opportunistic defense should be able to generate a couple turnovers and in a close game that can be the difference. The ‘Queens got some good news today, however, when WR Sidney Rice was activated off the PUP list. How much action he’ll see, and how in sync he’ll be with his quarterback, is a big question.

As for special teams, the Packers will have cornerback and speedster Sam Shields returning kickoffs. He opened eyes with a big return against the Cowboys. Coaches have decided that, until fumbles prove otherwise, he creates more problems for opponents that he does for the Packers. Expect the usual suspects back to return punts. On special teams, look also for the return of TE/LB Spencer Havner to the mix. He was a great special teams player in his prior time with the Packers and one would expect more of the same now that he’s back in the fold. Throw in the bonus of his rapport as a tight end with QB Aaron Rodgers in the red zone and the Packers have yet another receiving threat for the ‘Queens to worry about.

This will be Brett Favre’s Super Bowl: his chance to win one last time against his former team before calling it quits. You know he’s going to do all he can to stick a fork into GM Ted Thompson one last time. But there should be no doubt that the Packers are the better team. And by the end of the game, the score will reflect that.

I’m calling it Packers 31 – Vikings 24.

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By Packrphan 

This week has been a long one for fans of the Green Bay Packers. Coming off a second 3-point overtime loss in two consecutive weeks can suck the life right out of you. Couple that with the other 3-point loss of the season — to Da Bearz, no less! — and…well…it’s been a tough start to the season, to say the least.

From what was expected to be a Super Bowl-caliber team to one which can’t put four good quarters together in a single game, the 2010 edition of the Pack has yet to find its stride. That’s not something that should be happening in the 7th week of the NFL season. Coaching begins to be called into question when you see the same problems cropping up over and over again, game after game. And let’s not even start the debate over trades vs. drafting to build a championship-capable roster.

Yet, the good news is, the rest of the NFL is nearly equally as inept at this point. Within the NFC North, we’re just a game behind Chicago (yeah, go figure), and a game up on the ViQueens. That other team, the Lions, is still at the bottom…although lest we forget, they gave the Pack a serious run for the money during their visit to Lambeau.

The tale of the late-game stats

There’s a disquieting stat which has started to show up in some reports. Namely, that since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting QB in 2008, the Packers are 1-11 in the 12 games that have been decided since then by four points or less. The lone victory, by the way, was in that game earlier this season against the Lions. Just as a point of reference, from 1992-2007 (is this even fair???), Ol’ #4 was 33-30 in games (including playoffs) decided by 4 points or less.

Now, this is not about bashing Rodgers, although right now he’s certainly not performing like the QB we saw last season either. You win as a team and lose as a team, and certainly the Packers of late have found more ways to do the latter than the former. The inability of the Packers to close out opponents when they’ve had opportunities to do so has come back to haunt them time and again. As has the Packers’ woeful 4th quarter and overtime scoring ability: opponents have outscored the Pack 52-24 in that critical time range.

Now, as Ol’ #4 and his ViQueen teammates come to Lambeau, the Pack can either get their season back on track, or continue to slide into the abyss of mediocrity. The good news is that a few players, CB Al Harris, S Atari Bigby and RB James Starks are back at practice after having come off the PUP list. According to reports, Harris looks as if he’ll be the most ready to see action on Sunday. Even better, LB Clay Matthews looks as if he’ll be ready to go on Sunday, as will DE Ryan Pickett. And GM Ted Thompson actually executed a trade — a trade! — after the loss to Miami to pick up S Anthony Smith from the Jaguars for a conditional 7th round pick. None of that matters, however, if the Packers can’t get pressure on Favre. They didn’t in either of the two games last season and he ate the Pack for lunch.

It’s expected that the ‘Queens will try to rely more on RB Adrian Peterson. Don’t forget Randy Moss. And certainly don’t forget Percy Harvin who is not only a solid receiving threat but also a very dangerous return man. And with special teams being as bad as they are for the Packers — and a punter who may be on the verge of losing a job — Harvin is not somebody you want to see get loose on a return.

We’ll have more to say in the way of a preview before Sunday’s game. Keep checking back.

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By Packrphan 

Coming off a heartbreaking — and injury-riddled — loss in overtime to the Washington Redskins, the Green Bay Packers this week are probably going to be spending as much time getting medical evaluations as practicing. 

The Pack limped into the game already having a couple starters lost for the season, namely RB Ryan Grant and S Morgan Burnett, while a decision about season-ending wrist surgery is still in the air concerning LB Nick Burnett (and just for good measure, let’s remember Justin Harrell, as well, while we’re on the subject). A few other players were out for the game, including RT Mark Tauscher, LB Brandon Chillar, S Sam Shields, and FB Quinn Johnson. 

By the end of the game, they had lost TE Jermichael Finley (possibly for 2-3 weeks…and that’s the optimistic view!), TE Donald Lee, DE Ryan Pickett, LB Clay Matthews, CB and special teams demon Derrick Martin (may be the most serious with an ankle injury), and LB Frank Zombo. 

Oh yes, let’s not forget the concussion which QB Aaron Rodgers sustained supposedly on his last throw (intercepted) where he clearly had head-to-head contact from the defender (with no flag at all, of course…just like the blow to the head no-call in the playoff game loss at Arizona). So in order for Rodgers to be available for the upcoming game against Miami, he’s going to have to clear a number of tests before he gets the OK to play. 

Ryan Pickett was quoted as saying, “I’ve not been part of anything like this that so many guys are injured…It’s never been this bad. I’ve never experienced it in my 10 years.” 

The bottom line right now is that a team which many picked to go not only to but to win the Super Bowl based upon its talented roster now seems like it’s on life support. The injuries are everywhere. Not what you want as you head into one of the toughest stretches of the schedule: Dolphins, ViQueens, Jets, and Cowgirls. It’s a month before the Packers get their bye week. And, even without any other players going down, the Pack might be hard pressed to win another game before that bye week. 

Yes, injuries played a big part in yesterday’s loss by the Packers. You can’t lose two of your top playmakers — Finley and Matthews — and not have it affect the outcome. But the Packers just left too many opportunities on the field. Failing to push it into the endzone when you have  1st and goal from the 2-yard line, with a chance to go up 14-0 early, just left the door open for the ‘skins to hang around. It never should have come down to K Mason Crosby needing to hit a 53-yarder at the close of regulation to win that game. Never. Yes, he was 2 of 4 on the day and needs to make those kicks. But the Pack also needs to convert 3rd downs — they didn’t — and not give their opponent multiple 1st downs through penalties. 

And when, oh when, will the Packers ever get their special teams together?! 

The consistent pattern we see emerging in and across games is not the pattern we want to see: fast start, followed by tailing off in the second half, little to no commitment to the running game by head coach Mike McCarthy, and continued penalties and lapses at critical junctures of a game. 

Yes, as the players say, they feel they should be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2. But truth be told, they could also just as easily be 1-4 right now. The Buffalo game was the only game that has been a complete, or nearly complete, game by this team. By the time you hit game #5 of the schedule you should know who you are and what you can do and do it in a consistent way. The Packers just aren’t. 

Granted, the injuries started taking their toll early and often this season on the Pack. And now, it’s gotten even worse. The prognosis for the immediate future is not a good one. There are still 11 games remaining. But it’s possible, given the injuries let alone other problems which seem to be plaguing this team, that the Packers could go into their bye week at 3-6. They would likely have to win out in order to have a shot at the playoffs. And that’s not a position in which you wish to find yourself. 

The mettle of this team, coaching staff and management is going to be tested this week and over the coming month. The Packers’ season could very well be riding on what happens in these next four games.

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By Packrphan 

The Green Bay Packers go into Sunday’s game with the Washington Redskins as a wounded team. A rash of injuries has led any number of pundits who were onboard the Packers Super Bowl train to now say…well, maybe not. Two starters, RB Ryan Grant and S Morgan Burnett, are done for the year. LB Nick Barnett is out for Sunday’s game and may be done for the season pending the decision on wrist surgery. Barnett Tweeted Saturday afternoon that, “Just finished another scan.. We are getting very close to putting together a plan… Meet with dr.. So.. Things are getting closer”. Hmm… 

Other injured starters and key backups on both sides of the ball mean the eight-cylinder engine is now firing on six (not exactly a football metaphor, but you get the point). LB Brandon Chillar, FB Quinn Johnson, CB Sam Shields are all listed as out for tomorrow, as well. T Mark Tauscher is listed as doubtful, but most reports are projecting rookie Bryan Bulaga will get the start. To fill the other spots, such players as Desmond Bishop, Charlie Peprah and others who usually get their playing time on special teams will be called upon to fill mighty big shoes. It’s their chance to show what they can do. And it will likely be that way for a while. 

As the Pack goes into a stretch of games starting with an improved Washington team, followed by Miami and Minnesota at Lambeau, then at the Jets, and finally back home to face the Cowboys before heading into their bye week, this game shapes up as a rather pivotal game. If the Packers can play even a semblance of a complete game on offense, they should win this game against the ‘skins. Because it’s likely going to take lots of points to do so given the state of the defense. 

With a depleted secondary and linebacking corps, the Packers are exposed against Washington’s underneath passing game using their tight ends, as well as the downfield passing game when QB Donovan McNabb wants to take his shots with their limited wide receiver corps. And, let’s not forget the problem that the Packers have trying to corral scrambling quarterbacks. McNabb has generally played well against the Packers in the past and there is no reason to suspect he won’t play well Sunday. The question is whether he’ll have an emotional letdown after the ‘skins big victory in Philly last weekend. 

Washington comes in much healthier than do the Packers. The only starter out for the ‘skins is RB Clinton Portis. DT Albert Haynesworth will also reportedly miss the game; his younger brother, Lance, was killed in a motorcycle accident late this last week. (Our sincere condolences to the Haynesworth family.) 

The current line on the game has the Packers favored by 2-1/2 points. This is a difficult game to predict given the Packers’ narrow victory at home over the Lions last weekend. Yes, the Lions are an improved team. But the Pack played very poorly in almost every phase of the game. Fortunately, the Packers were finally able to get a grind-it-out running game going to eat up the clock at the end to preserve the victory. According to all reports and comments from coaches and players alike, the feeling in the locker room afterward was one where they had to be reminded that they won the game. Perhaps that will be the motivation they need to start playing the type of football they are capable of playing, and which we have yet to see this season. Even with the injuries, players need to step up. Coaches have made it clear they are not going to change schemes because of who is and who isn’t available. Do we really buy that? 

The Pack will have to make to do. Whether that will be good enough to get them a win in Washington or not…? 

The complete Packers “Dope Sheet” on the match up can be found here: http://bit.ly/dAnW42

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By Packrphan 

I offered my preview, for the most part, in my post of late yesterday afternoon. In today’s match up between our beloved Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins I just have to admit that on this one…I am a bit, oh, unclear as to outcome. 

It’s a very strange space in which to be. The first two games of the season, I had it pretty well called. In fact, I nailed the score of both teams right on the money in the opener versus Philadelphia, had the Packers’ score right on the button in the game against the Bills, and had the score of the winning team in game #3, too. Unfortunately, that score turned out to be in favor of Da Bearz not the Pack as I had anticipated. Last week, I figured coming off that horrible performance in Chicago they’d have the guns blazing and blow out Detroit at Lambeau. Didn’t quite turn out that way, as the Pack were lucky to survive their many mistakes in that game and come out with a squeaker of a win. 

So the performances of the last two weeks by the Pack leaves me underwhelmed, particularly with the inconsistency on offense. But if ever there was an opportunity to get things going it should be against Washington: they have the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass defense. They also haven’t exhibited much in the way of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If the Packers’ makeshift running game can at least keep the defense honest, QB Aaron Rodgers could and should have a big day. 

Now, however, toss in to the mix the fact that the defensive unit, because of  injuries, will resemble more of a preseason squad than regulars and it gives a Packer fan pause, ya know? After all, if the Lions were able to do what they did at Lambeau Field last weekend, what might the Redskins do on their home turf? 

Offensively, the ‘skins have enough weapons to not only test but do damage against the Pack’s beat up defense. It will really take great effort on the part of the backups who are now called upon to start to keep QB Donovan McNabb in check. He’s got a good tight end in Chris Cooley who could cause problems in coverage for the Pack’s linebackers, who will be missing starter Nick Barnett and their best coverage linebacker, Brandon Chillar. There is also a Redskins’ deep threat in WR Anthony Armstrong who caught a 57-yarder last week. And RB Ryan Torain will be getting just his second start, filling in for the injured Clinton Portis. Washington head coach Mike Shanahan drafted Torain while in Denver, and believes he is — or can be — a big-time running back. Let’s hope that doesn’t start today. 

So, where does this leave us besides very confused about what to expect today? I guess nowhere. The Packers are favored by 2-1/2 points. I have the sense that it will be a high scoring game with neither defense holding serve, so to speak. Could look like some of the games we saw late last season where which team has the ball last wins. Prior to the season, I had this game going into the “W” column when giving my overall win/loss prediction. But that was before all the injuries and inconsistent play. The Pack is the better team. But over the past two weeks, especially, they haven’t played like it. And with the hits to the defense this past week, they’ve gotten weaker. Aaron Rodgers and the offense is going to have carry the day big-time if the Pack is to come out of this game with a win. They can do it. But will they? No clue. I have just as much a sense that the Redskins could get the “W” as could the Packers. (I hate it when that happens!) 

Right now, I see this game as a toss up, unfortunately. But I’ll put on the Green-‘n’-Gold-colored glasses and take the Packers 31-30.

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I picked the Packers to win it all in August, noticing that they were 7-1 (with one loss by 1 point) in their last 8 games last season, after the returns of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher stabilized the line in front of Aaron Rodgers. With rookie tackle Bryan Bulaga coming in, they would have depth behind Clifton and Tauscher in case one of them got hurt again (which Tauscher did). However, I will admit, once Nick Barnett, Jermichael Finley, and Ryan Grant went on IR and my Patriots got hot, I jumped on the Patriots in 2010 wagon.

However, the Packers would prove me wrong (and right to begin with). They never quite replaced Finley, but Desmond Bishop replaced Nick Barnett and James Starks replaced Ryan Grant. They started out slow, going 3-3, but with all 3 losses by 3 points. Despite losing 16 players to IR, the Packers stood at 8-6 heading into a week 16 game with the Giants. In order to make the playoffs, they would have to beat the Giants and the Bears week 17.

The Packers didn’t just beat the Giants, they destroyed them, putting 500 yards of total offense in a 45-17 blowout. After they beat the Bears 10-3 week 17, it was on to the playoffs. The Packers finished the season at 10-6, but with the NFC’s best point differential, no losses by more than 4 points, and no losses in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished by more than 3 points, the Packers looked to be in good shape.

They beat Philadelphia in Philadelphia, Atlanta in Atlanta, and Chicago in Chicago to advance to the Super Bowl, where they beat the Steelers. Despite several drops by his receivers, and injuries to Donald Driver, Charles Woodson, and Sam Shields, the Packers prevailed 31-25 in Super Bowl XLV, as Aaron Rodgers threw for 300+ yards on the league’s best passing defense.

Some would say they got lucky. If the Eagles hadn’t comeback from down 31-10 with 8 minutes to go against the Giants, the Packers wouldn’t have even made the playoffs. If David Akers (who had his mind on his daughter’s battle with cancer) hadn’t missed two makeable field goals against the Packers, they would have gone out in the first round.

However, every team catches a few breaks. This wasn’t a lucky season for the Packers, with 6 losses by 4 or fewer and 16 players on IR, but they prevailed anyway, winning essentially 6 straight must wins to do so. That’s not luck. That’s skill. That’s Aaron Rodgers. 

The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, as I predicted last August (just saying), last year despite having many players on IR, including several key players. Among those were Ryan Grant, their lead back, Jermichael Finley, their stud tight end, Morgan Burnett, a talented rookie starter at strong safety, Nick Barnett, a starter at middle linebacker, Mark Tauscher, a starter at right tackle, as well as Mike Neal and Brad Jones, two key young players on their defense.

Grant and Finley are both back for the offense, while 2010 3^rd round pick Morgan Burnett is back for the defense. Nick Barnett and Mark Tauscher were both cut, while Brad Jones is expected to start opposite Clay Matthews at rush linebacker, and 2010 2^nd round pick Mike Neal is expected to start at defensive end in place of the departed Cullen Jenkins. It’s for this reason that the Packers have the best chance to repeat since the 2003-2004 Patriots. They weren’t even at full strength when they won last year.

Aaron Rodgers is back and obviously that’s the most important thing. He was the Super Bowl MVP last year. They return 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line, assuming you count Bryan Bulaga, who stepped in at right tackle when Mark Tauscher went on IR late last season. The only offensive lineman who did not return was Daryn Colledge, a mediocre guard and the weak link in this line.

Colledge will be replaced in the lineup by Caleb Schlauderaff, a rookie 6^th rounder. As surprising as the Packers’ decision to draft Schlauderaff was, many didn’t think he’d even get drafted, their decision to, at least for now, pencil him in as the starter is even more surprising and head scratching. However, the Packers have such a great track record of drafting and developing young talent that you almost have to give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.

Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga will start as the tackles. Clifton, on the left side, is still an adequate blindside protector even at his age, 35. Bulaga, meanwhile, really struggled as a rookie, surrendering 13 sacks and committing 10 penalties on the right side. The 2010 1^st round pick should be better in his 2^nd season. The Packers drafted Derek Sherrod in the first round. If Clifton gets hurt, very possible, or struggles, or Bulaga continues to struggle, they could plug Sherrod into the lineup. TJ Lang could also play right tackle again or move to left guard. He’s versatile, but not that great.

At right guard, Josh Sitton emerged as one of the best at his position last season. Sitton was a 4^th round pick in 2008 so it just goes to show how good this team is at finding talent. He allowed 1 sack all season and was a beast as a run blocker. At center, Scott Wells is another good player who surrendered just 2 sacks all last season. Aaron Rodgers should be well enough protected once again.

His running game should be even better. This team’s offense really took off once they were able to run the ball. After many, many mediocre weeks of Brandon Jackson, James Starks, a rookie, took the lead back job and stabilized the running back position in the absence of Ryan Grant. Grant is now back and will form a two headed rushing attack with Starks. 3^rd round rookie Alex Green is expected to be the 3^rd down back in place of Brandon Jackson, who signed with Cleveland. Fullback John Kuhn could get the goal line carries, as he did at times last season. If the team can run as well as they did down the stretch last year, this offense might be unstoppable, just as it was down the stretch last season.

That’s one of the reasons why this team could be even better this season. Another is how good Aaron Rodgers was down the stretch. From week 9 on, including playoffs, Rodgers was 237 for 338 (70.1%), for 3015 yards (8.9 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. On top of all this, the Packers haven’t lost by more than 4 in any non-overtime game since week 8 of 2009!

If you discount the 2 games where Aaron Rodgers either didn’t start and/or didn’t finish, they haven’t lost by more than 3 in any non-overtime game since week 8 of 2009. That’s insane! They’ve lost 5 games by more than 7 points in the past 3 seasons, including 5 playoff games. That means in Aaron Rodgers’ career, he’s played 52 games and 47 were either wins or single touchdown losses. That’s double insane!

Their point differential from 2010 was 148, 2^nd in the league last year and yet they only won 10 games. That says they had some bad luck in the regular season. Assuming they have better health and better luck, this team could easily have the best record in the league this year, considering how well they played down the stretch.

Rodgers once again has as many weapons as any quarterback in the league. In fact, he has more than he did last season. Jermichael Finley was on pace for the career year everyone projected him to have with 21 catches for 301 yards and a touchdown in 4 games before going down for the season with an injury. His replacements, primarily rookie Andrew Quarless, were not the nearly the same.

The Packers also added receiver Randall Cobb in the 2^nd round. He probably won’t play much offensively until Donald Driver retires, he’s currently 5^th on the depth chart, but he could be their kick returner and their punt returner, two aspects of their team that were actually weaknesses in 2010. If Cobb can become an elite return man, their offense will be that much better.

The reason Cobb is 5^th on the depth chart is that the Packers have 4 very good receivers ahead of him. Greg Jennings is the #1 receiver and deservedly so. With 224 catches for 3670 yards and 25 touchdowns since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starter 3 years ago, Jennings is to Rodgers as Donald Driver was to Brett Favre.

Speaking of Driver, he’s still around, unlike Favre, though he probably won’t be for much longer. Driver is 36 and considered retirement this offseason after winning the Super Bowl in February. He had a mere 51 catches for 565 yards in 2010, both his lowest totals since 2001, and only scored 4 times. He’s really only in the lineup for sentimental reasons as the former late round pick has been with the Packers since 1999, catching 698 balls for 9615 yards and 53 scores in his time with the team. Even so, he could easily be passed by James Jones and/or Jordy Nelson on the depth chart at some point this season.

Jones caught 50 passes for 679 yards and 5 touchdowns last season, despite not being a starter for most of the season. He was rewarded with a long term deal this offseason and could be Driver’s successor in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jordy Nelson, another potential Driver successor, caught 45 passes for 582 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2010 and stepped up big time in the Super Bowl with 9 catches for 140 yards and a score, potentially a sign of things to come.

The Packers offense is explosive, but you can’t win a Super Bowl unless you have a great defense as well and the Packers do. I’ll get to beast pass rusher Clay Matthews in a bit, but first, I’m going to talk about the secondary. Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams might be the best corner duo in the league. Woodson is the bigger name, but Williams was actually the better player last year.

Williams had the 2^nd lowest quarterback rating allowed of any cornerback last year behind only Asante Samuel. He allowed a 46.8% completion rate and 3 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. He was even better in the postseason, where he had 3 interceptions in 4 games, including a key pick six against Atlanta, and the game clincher against Philadelphia.

Woodson, meanwhile, is not exactly a bad player himself. He won defensive player of the year in 2009 and though last year was a down year by his standards, he still played well. He’s 35 in October, but keeps himself in amazing shape so he should have another good year. Meanwhile, nickel corner Sam Shields was a revelation for this team last year, especially in the postseason when he intercepted 2 passes against Chicago.

Shields was a former wide receiver who played one year of cornerback at Miami and then went undrafted in 2010. The Packers picked him up as an undrafted free agent and in his rookie season he was able to make a huge impact on the team. Some might even argue that they don’t win last year if they don’t have Sam Shields. It’s amazing how good this team is at finding talent.

A 3^rd talented starter in their secondary is Nick Collins. Collins has picked off 17 passes in the last 3 seasons, with 3 pick sixes. He also allowed just a 37.5% completion percentage and only one touchdown last year. The 4^th starter in the secondary is Morgan Burnett. He is the worst of the 4 starters, but if Morgan Burnett is your worst starter in your secondary, you’re doing alright for yourself. Burnett impressed as a rookie before getting hurt and should have a solid season in his 2^nd year this year. Charlie Peprah did a decent job of filling in for Burnett last season, but he’s best suited for the backup role he’ll be in this season.

Supporting this amazing secondary is a pass rush that got to the quarterback 47 times last season. The leader of their pass rush is undoubtedly Clay Matthews, who had 13.5 sacks last season while playing the 2^nd half of the season with a stress fracture in his leg. He also had a pick six just in case you thought he couldn’t do that. He’s fully healthy now and ready for even bigger things. He had 6 sacks in his first 2 games last season when he was fully healthy. Imagine what he can do when he’s healthy for a full season.

Even more impressive is the fact that Matthews did all that without a consistent pass rusher opposite him. Brad Jones was supposed to continue his strong play from late 2009 in 2010, but he got hurt and missed 10 games. He didn’t record a sack. Frank Zombo and Erik Walden also tried their hand at being the #2 rush linebacker, with no consistent success. The Packers drafted Ricky Elmore in the 6^th round so maybe he can do something at the position at some point this season.

The Packers’ #2 pass rusher, Cullen Jenkins, who had 7 sacks in 11 games last season, is gone. He’ll be replaced with 2010 2^nd round pick Mike Neal in the lineup. This makes it even more important that someone step up as a #2 pass rusher after Matthews. It could be Neal himself. Neal has a lot of upside and looked decent in limited action last season.

Their 3^rd best pass rusher should remain BJ Raji this year. 6.5 sacks is a ton for a nose tackle and Raji is even a beast against the run in addition to his pass rushing abilities. However, he’s still a nose tackle and a nose tackle should never be anything higher than your 3^rd best pass rusher. At the other end position, Ryan Pickett is currently the starter, but that could change as 2010 7^th round pick CJ Wilson could beat him out at some point.

Inside at middle linebacker, Nick Barnett was cut this offseason, but he became expendable when Desmond Bishop came out of nowhere to have a great season with Barnett hurt. The Packers picked AJ Hawk, a former first round pick who has had a solid tenure with the Packers, over the injury prone again Barnett this offseason. Hawk received a 5 year deal this offseason and is a solid player, though he never has lived up to his billing as a former 5^th overall pick.

Given how well Aaron Rodgers played down the stretch last season and given that they are getting key players back from injury that they didn’t even have last year when they won it all, there’s a very good chance I end up picking the Packers to win it all and repeat as champions even though no one has done that since the 2003-2004 Patriots and even though that’s boring. They are one of the most complete teams in the league and they have continuity coming out of a lockout. Even if I don’t pick them to repeat, barring major injury, this should be one of the best regular season teams in the NFC.

Quarterback: A

Running backs: B-

Receiving corps: A

Offensive line: B-

Run defense: B

Pass rush: A-

Pass coverage: A

Coaching: A-

Projection: 13-3 1^st in NFC North

By Packrphan 

Now that the roster is set, I feel a bit more comfortable prognosticating on the Green Bay Packers upcoming season. A lot of folks have already had their says, of course. And a lot of the same things tend to get said over and over. In that sense, you’ll probably find no news per se here. So, in an effort to save both this writer and you, my dedicated reader, time, I’ll just give a quick take on each aspect of the Pack as I see it going into the opener at Philadephia…and beyond.

Offense

The ultimate key to the season lies here. No surprise. And that begins with QB Aaron Rodgers and his receivers. The fact that veteran tackles, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, are back to start the season bodes well. It will be even better if they can stay on the field for most of the season. Having five receivers, four tight ends, three fullbacks and two running backs offers head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Joe Philbin plenty of scheme scenarios to drive opposing team defenses nuts.

Figure that the ratio of passes to runs will probably be close to 60-40 and the ability to have these key players stay healthy throughout the season will determine to a large degree just how far the Pack can go. This is a dominating offense, at least in the passing game. To the extent that the running game can keep defenses honest by not blitzing every play, to that extent will there be an opportunity to win the tough games. Not that they all aren’t tough. Just, as the saying goes, some are tougher than others. And, looking at the schedule, many of those games come later in the season when weather conditions — particularly at Lambeau and other northerly outdoor venues — will dictate running the ball a bit more often. It will be interesting to see what happens when rookie RB James Starks becomes available off the PUP (physically unable to perform) list after week 6. That’s when the schedule starts to change, the weather starts to change, and running backs Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson will have already taken a pounding. He might just offer the kind of change of pace that provides the additional surprises needed to let Rodgers and company do what they do so well.

Defense

Other than special teams (more on that in a moment), for most Packers fans the biggest question mark lies on this side of the ball. Yesterday was actually the first time during all preseason that the 11 starters were on the practice field at the same time (Al Harris and Atari Bigby aside, of course). In addition, LB Clay Matthews has been moved to the left side, flip flopping with Brad Jones. Both, by the way, have also battled injuries in the preseason and have not seen any action for quite a while. This week will be dedicated to working on the communication between the players as a unit.

The big problem in the big games last year — i.e., against top-notch quarterbacks — was generating a pass rush. Didn’t happen much and as a result those great quarterbacks sliced and diced the Packers’ defense and handed the Pack losses despite the offense putting up lots of points. Like last year, the Pack’s offense will put up points; the question will be whether the defense can hold up their end of the bargain. Yes, stats showed the Packers’ defense did well last year. But some of those great stats which figured into the overall rankings were generated via some of the weaker teams on the schedule. Yes, it works that way for all teams, true. But…well…last year was last year and this year is…hmmm…we don’t know yet. Lots of talented players, but also some real question marks. And until we see how defensive coordinator Dom Capers is going to deploy his players and schemes, and how they perform when the games count, it is anyone’s guess. Do they have the potential to be a very good defense? Yes, definitely. But the proof will come once game day hits.

We know that Clay Matthews will have to once again have a stellar season. We know that A.J. Hawk needs to step up his play as he has yet to live up to the expectations of being a #5 overall draft pick in the minds of many. B.J. Raji will have to be as stout at the point of attack as was Ryan Pickett last year and Pickett will have to perform as highly at his new defensive end position as he did in the middle. Back up players will see lots of action, particularly on the line. Will Justin Harrell’s spot on the roster actually be of value to the team or a wasted spot which could have been used on someone else? Time will tell. The Packers — and even a few reporters — seem to be optimistic. After three years, that’s about all there is. Keep your fingers crossed he can at least be available — which was Harrell’s answer, by the way, as to how he made the final roster — most of the season. Anything the team gets out of him will be gravy.

The biggest concern on the defensive side of things, not surprisingly, is the defensive backfield. With both Al Harris and Atari Bigby out for at least the first six games, and Harris’ return at all questioned in some quarters, Tramon Williams and rookie Morgan Burnett get the starts at cornerback and safety, respectively. With Charles Woodson and Nick Collins holding down the other corner and safety spots, one would think all would be well. But you can bet that opposing QBs will test both Williams and Burnett heavily during at least the initial part of the season. Where things get a bit dicey, however, is when dime and nickel packages are required. Because of the injury to CB Brandon Underwood, the nickel slot looks to be held down by undrafted rookie Sam Shields. You can be sure he will be test early and often. The dime spot, at least until Underwood resumes his nickel duties, will be manned by Jarrett Bush who has typically been a lightening rod for fan frustration over the years. Bush performed well in the last preseason game. But when the game has been on the line in regular season play, it just seems that Bush has often been out of position and/or unable to make the play necessary. If you read fan comments about Bush being kept on the roster you can get a feel for the fact that until shown otherwise, Packer fans just don’t trust Bush to be able to play at the level needed. Obviously, GM Ted Thompson thinks otherwise and that’s the vote that matters.

Special Teams

This is the area of the Packers that has been the biggest problem under Mike McCarthy’s head coaching tenure. Despite changing special teams coaches, and supposedly devoting more attention to it, the level of performance has not seemed to change year to year. Until the regular season begins on Sunday against the Eagles, we can’t really have a clear picture of what to expect. A lot of the players playing on special teams are no longer even on the squad. So what it performs like when it actually is a consistent unit remains to be seen in terms of coverage and returns. 

Punter Tim Masthay won the job over Chris Bryan, who was signed as a free agent by the Buccaneers after his release by the Packers. Masthay will also likely be handling kickoff duties, demonstrating a stronger leg in that department than kicker Mason Crosby. Masthay looks to be a definite improvement over…whomever it was we had last season (shock therapy helped block that particular name from resurfacing).

As to the return game, Packer fans again seem to be generally frustrated. GM Thompson did nothing in the draft or via trade or waiver claims to bolster that area of the team. As a result, coach McCarthy said during his news conference yesterday that CB Tramon Williams and WR Greg Jennings will be the current options at punt returner, and WR Jordy Nelson and RB Brandon Jackson will be returning kicks. Again, from both fan and reporter comments, the thought of exposing one of your top receivers — Jennings — to possible injury returning punts is something that leaves many aghast. If something were to happen to Williams, the depth issue in the secondary then starts to come into play, as it does if something were to happen to Jackson despite the fact that he is not a starter. It leaves many fans wondering — for another year — why it is that the Packers cannot somehow find or acquire a returner. Granted, they thought they had it in Will Blackmon, but ongoing injuries just made that impossible. There is a possibility that Blackmon could return to the team somewhere down the line following his release with an injury settlement. But still, it is an area which just does not seem to figure that largely into Packer plans. And yet, it is an area which could help determine how far the Packers go into the post-season. 

A football team is like a three-legged stool: if all of them are there it works; if one of them isn’t there or is wobbly…well, you get the idea.

Applying this analogy to the Packers, the offense is strong, the defense is — we don’t know — and the special teams seem wobbly at best. How will that translate into the season?

Season Prediction

Without going into predictions for individual games — we’ll do that on a week-by-week basis prior to game time — we finally need to give our prediction on wins and losses for the upcoming season. 

From reviewing what others have to say, it seems as if most projections for the Pack have the team going anywhere from 10-6 to 13-3.

It should be apparent that, with the schedule stiffening in the latter part of the season, the team must make real headway in the first part. And the schedule sets up for them to do just that. Typically though, as with any team, they lose a game they should win and win a game they should lose. I’m not sure which will be which in the first 6 games, but I see that stretch resulting in a 5-1 win-loss record. In the next 10 games, I can see 4 possible losses, although again an expected win and an expected loss might flip flop that scenario but the net result is the same.

So, bottom line projection: 11-5. The Packers will win the North Division outright and, obviously, make the playoffs. More than a few pundits have the Packers reaching the Super Bowl. If key players stay healthy and some of the youngsters that Thompson is relying on yet again to step up to NFL-level play come through, that is certainly within reach.

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By Packrphan

As the Green Bay Packers sit at 7-4, with all four losses by 3 points, and looking up at Da Bearz atop the NFC North (as disgusting a thought as there can possibly be!), roster moves continue. It has been the theme of this season for the Packers. 

What’s the difference between Da Bearz and the Packers? Yes, I know, we can go a lot of ways with that answer, all of them rip-roaringly funny. But for our purposes today, the correct answer is: health.

The Packers yesterday added LB Brandon Chillar (shoulder) and TE/LB Spencer Havner (hamstring) to the injured reserve list, bringing the team’s league-leading total to 13. The Packers’ IR list is a squad in its own right. And if you look at the names on that list, it’s a pretty good squad at that. Just imagine what the Pack could have done this season if even half of that list was actually on the field. Wow. Still, it’s a testament to the personnel moves of GM Ted Thompson that the Packers have been able to field players who haven’t led to a complete collapse. And credit the coaching staff with coaching those players, some street and undrafted free agents, in such a way that they are ready to play at a high level. Truly remarkable given the circumstances.

Today, the Pack promoted LB Robert Francois and CB Josh Gordy from the practice squad to take the roster spots of Chillar and Havner. This is Francois’ second time this season on the active roster, while it is Gordy’s first call-up. Their spots on the practice squad were taken by new signees WR Terrance Smith and LB/DE Curtis Young.

Tramon Williams gets a payday

News broke Tuesday that the Packers and CB Tramon Williams had signed a four-year contract extension that will keep Williams in Green Bay through 2014. Williams is one of those great success stories in the NFL. An undrafted player out of Louisiana Tech who was cut by Houston in 2006, Williams was signed to the Packers’ practice squad. The rest, as they say, is history. Williams worked hard, apprenticed behind Al Harris, and earned his payoff by performing at a Pro Bowl level ever since replacing Harris last year as the starting cornerback opposite Charles Woodson. He has been very good.

But now that he’s gotten his big payday — reportedly worth more than $33 million over the life of the extension — Williams will be expected to continue performing at a high level. And there are no signs that he won’t. He is a well-liked and well-respected member not only of the Packers but the broader Green Bay community. And he also is a player who even his agent says wants to stay in Green Bay. Williams is a player and person it is easy to root for. Congratulations, Mr. Williams. Well done. Keep up the great work.

If you want to read more about Williams’ new contract, you can do so here.

Starks to see action…maybe

According to head coach Mike McCarthy’s comments earlier this week, the woeful status of the Packers’ rushing attack (I know, that seems to be a real oxymoron at the moment) is apparently making him think seriously about giving rookie RB James Starks some action this weekend. No one knows quite what to expect as Starks hasn’t played any football since 2008; he missed his entire senior season at Buffalo with injury. Running backs coach Edgar Bennett — a darn good running back in his own day — says he likes what he sees in the youngster in practice. But what happens when he takes his first game hit in a couple years? And his first NFL hit besides? No clue. But given that QB Aaron Rodgers was the leading rusher for the Packers in the game against the Falcons this last weekend, clearly a change is in order.

That change, however, honestly needs to start with McCarthy actually committing to the run — something his history indicates isn’t overly likely — and the offensive line opening some holes for whomever is carrying the ball. But the inability of Brandon Jackson to consistently perform and the total disappearance over the last two games of John Kuhn (although it’s not clear why he hasn’t factored into McCarthy’s schemes recently), mean it’s time to shake things up. Let’s see what Starks can do. Maybe the Packers catch lightening in a bottle. That would be a surprise, granted. And the way this season has gone, it’s probably more likely Starks also will wind up getting hurt and going on IR.

But let’s be optimistic. At least until we see what we’ve got.

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Rush Linebacker

No playoff team had fewer sacks than the Packers, who had 29. That was a big part of the reason why they allowed more yards than every team in NFL history except for 1. Clay Matthews is the future at one rush linebacker position, but they need someone opposite him who the defense can respect even a little to take the pressure off of him.

3-4 Defensive End

More help needed for their pass rush, Mike Neal and Ryan Pickett can’t stay healthy, while Jairus Wynn and CJ Wilson didn’t do a very good job in replacement. They need someone who can consistently get to the passer from this position. Clay Matthews is their only good pass rusher. They should add two more good pass rushers.

Cornerback

Charles Woodson turns 36 during the 2012 season. They’ll have to be prepared for the day he retires or his abilities decline notably. There’s already been some talk of him moving to safety, although that move appears to be one for 2013 or later. However, they need another cornerback.

Safety

When Nick Collins went down with injury, their lack of depth at safety was really exposed and their pass defense got torched. Collins is no sure thing going forward with injuries. They need another safety in the mix.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is obviously their long term quarterback, who is his backup? Matt Flynn is not expected back and the Packers don’t have anyone else who can step into the lineup should Rodgers ever get hurt.

Center

Scott Wells is a free agent. The Packers will reportedly let him test the free agent waters. They either need to resign him or add someone else. They’ve been linked to Houston’s Chris Myers, arguably the league’s best center.

Running Back

Ryan Grant is a free agent and the Packers could let him walk in favor of giving James Starks more carries. However, Starks has never been able to stay healthy. Meanwhile, 2011 3^rd rounder Alex Green has reportedly been a big disappointment thus far. He’s also got a torn ACL to deal with and might not be able to play in 2012.