Offense

In 2010, the Buccaneers were a 10 win team that didn’t deserve to win 10 games. They only played 6 games against teams who finished .500 or better and only beat one of them, beating the Saints week 17 when the Saints were resting their starters in the 2^nd half. They beat up on bad teams, going 9-1 against sub .500 teams. Their Pythagorean Expectation, meanwhile, was just 8.66 wins, 1.34 games fewer than their actual total. They also only turned the ball over 19 times, which historically is unsustainable.

There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. Of those 36 teams, only two either had the same amount or fewer the next year. Those two teams were both the Colts. The Colts also were the only team to have 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times so they look like an outlier. That’s makes sense since they had one of the most consistent quarterbacks of the decade. If you take out Indianapolis’ 5 times, the increase in turnovers jumps to 10.97 and decrease in wins jumps to 3.19.

In 2011, they predictably declining, winning just 4 games. They played 11 teams who finished .500 or better and went just 2-9 in those games. They were actually 4-2 at one point and led the division after beating the Saints, but they finished the season losing 10 straight games. Their turnover total also regressed more than could be expected, as they turned the ball over a league leading 40 times. Fortunately for them, like teams with low turnover totals, teams with high turnover totals normally regress back to the mean in the following season.

The 42 teams who have had 35 or more turnovers since 2002 have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 averaged by the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers the year before. If that doesn’t prove that turnovers are unpredictable on a yearly basis, I don’t know what does. Those 42 teams have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and won 1.61 more games. It’s not as significant of a difference in wins as it is with teams with fewer than 20 turnovers, but it’s still notable.

Meanwhile, they also had a -16 turnover differential. Teams with turnover differentials of -15 or worse since 2002 have had a differential 19.3 points better in their next season and won 2.58 more games. Further proving that takeaways and turnovers vary on a yearly basis is the fact that the teams with differentials higher than +15 and teams with differential lower than -15 have almost the same differential in their next season, a difference of .7.

As they were a 10 win team that didn’t deserve to win 10 games in 2010, last year, they were a 4 win team that deserved to win more than 4 games. In actuality, they’re somewhere in between a 4 win and a 10 win team. They should be improved this season, over last season. They were very aggressive this offseason, signing 3 free agents to big time deals (Eric Wright, Carl Nicks, and Vincent Jackson) and moving up to select 3 guys in the first 2 rounds who could start for them.

They also got rid of lame duck Head Coach Raheem Morris. Morris was a terrible disciplinarian and this team was out of control last season. Their players had terrible work ethic and they were incredibly undisciplined on the field. For example, LeGarrette Blount was often late to practice, so they got him a personal driver. Once he stopped using the personal driver, he once again was frequently late for practice. He also really struggled to learn the playbook and made no effort to improve as a pass catcher or pass protector.

Mike Williams, meanwhile, would fall asleep in team meetings, partied too much, and put in very little effort to stay in shape. On the field, they missed more tackles than any team since the stat started being kept, leading to them ranking dead last in yards per play allowed. Greg Schiano is the new Head Coach and will attempt to change the culture of the team. It can’t get worse.

Quarterback

No single player’s statistics better sum up what happened in the last 2 years for the Buccaneers than quarterback Josh Freeman. In 2010, he completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, and 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. However, last year, while he completion percentage improved slightly, he averaged just 6.5 YPA, and threw 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions. His interception rate went from incredibly low (1.3%) to incredibly high (4.0%) and he became much more conservative and threw deep much less often. In 474 attempts in 2010, he threw deep 72 times (15.2%), as opposed to 36 times on 551 throws last season (6.5%).

The former, his interception rate, should regress back down to the norm. I already went into how turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis in the intro. He won’t throw an interception on 4% of his throws this season, though he won’t through one on 1.3% either. He’ll be somewhere in the middle. As for the latter, his unwillingness to throw deep, I don’t know what’s up with that.

An improved supporting cast, however, should help with that. In fact, they’ll help him in general. Advanced statistics show that Freeman was actually better than his stats would have shown last year. In terms of accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes), he ranked 10^th out of 35, out of all quarterbacks who played 50% of their snaps, by being accurate on 73.6% of attempts.

His adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 22^nd out of 35 eligible quarterbacks with an 80.55 rating, good for a solid 6 point increase over his regular QB rating. For reference, his regular QB rating ranked 27^th. He won’t be as good as he was in 2010, but he won’t be as bad as in 2011.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Freeman will be helped out with several upgrades in each level of his offensive supporting cast. In the receiving corps, the Buccaneers signed Vincent Jackson. They definitely overpaid him, giving him 5 years, 55 million, especially since he’s already 29 and will soon begin to decline. Wide receivers are major wild cards when switching teams, especially when they switch teams from one with a superior quarterback to one with an inferior quarterback. Jackson may also become complacent now that he’s finally been paid. This is a guy who has trying to get paid for years, holding out most of the 2010 season and even contemplating holding up the lockout to ensure he could be paid.

That being said, he’ll be definitely an upgrade in the starting lineup over Arrelious Benn and he’s still in the prime of his career, albeit the tail end of it. Last season, he caught 60 passes for 1106 yards and 9 touchdowns. No receiver was hit deeper per catch last year, averaging 14.8 yards per catch in the air. Some of that is Philip Rivers, but some of that is also Jackson’s ability as a deep threat, which will help Josh Freeman.

Jackson’s presence will also make life easier for Mike Williams and it could also motivate Williams to get his act together. Remember, this guy caught 65 passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns as a mere rookie in 2010. A new coaching staff will also help Williams as Williams just did whatever he wanted to do under the lack of discipline that existed under the old regime. Greg Schiano could help straighten him out.

Of course, if Williams continues to struggle, he could be pushed for his starting job. The player who could take it is Preston Parker, who caught 40 passes for 554 yards and 3 touchdowns last year as the slot receiver. He’s a talented player who Josh Freeman raved about this offseason. He should be fully capable of being a starter if the Buccaneers replace Williams with him.

Parker will be involved more in the offense regardless of whether or not he starts as the Buccaneers have gotten rid of tight end Kellen Winslow. With Winslow, who got 114 targets last year (4^th in the regular season at his position), gone, Parker will get more targets over the middle. This could make the Buccaneers’ offense more efficient as 9 of Freeman’s interceptions were on passes to Winslow, tied for most in the league to a single player at any position. Winslow’s QB rating when thrown to was the worst in the league, 58.1, though some of that is Freeman’s fault. On top of that, Winslow was near of the bottom of his position with just 3.4 YAC per catch.

Winslow was also a terrible run blocker. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Luke Stocker, a 2011 4^th round pick. Stocker isn’t much of a receiver, but he’s a great run blocker and Parker’s abilities will help cancel out the loss of Winslow as a pass catcher, in addition to making them more efficient. The Buccaneers also signed Dallas Clark to be the “move” tight end, but, at age 33, he doesn’t have much left in the tank. He caught just 34 passes for 352 yards and 2 touchdowns last year and he’s missed 15 games over the last 2 seasons.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Freeman will also be able to get more receiving production from his running backs this season. LeGarrette Blount is an awful pass catcher and has put in minimal effort to get any better, so the Buccaneers traded back up into the end of the 1^st round to grab Doug Martin, who is a great pass catcher and pass blocker. He’ll also be a key part of what’s going to be a more run heavy offense this year, which will make life easier for Freeman. Last year, they passed on 63.0% of their plays, one of the highest rates in the league. In 2010, that number was 53.4% and their offense seems to be better off when they run more.

Martin will play almost all of the passing downs and could get a large percentage of the snaps on running downs, though I wouldn’t surprise me at all if Blount continued to get the majority of the snaps on running downs. Blount isn’t much of a pass catcher, but he’s still a fairly good runner, averaging 4.6 YPC in his career.

Martin’s presence could also motivate Blount to get his act together. In 2010, he averaged 5.0 YPC, as opposed to 4.2 YPC last season. The new coaching staff will also help. Plus, you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), and Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter.

Those guys all had career years, or close to career years in the season after their team used a high pick on a running back. Between Martin and Blount, the Buccaneers will run the ball well this season and they’ll run the ball often. Both of those things will make life easier for Freeman, as will Martin’s abilities as a pass catcher.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

The Buccaneers’ offensive line was also a problem in 2011. They ranked 22^nd in pass blocking efficiency and 18^th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus. Josh Freeman was pressured on 33.6% of his snaps, 14^th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. However, he showed very good pocket presence, only taking a sack of 14.2% of his pressured snaps, 5^th best in the league. He also ranked 9^th with a 62.9% accuracy percentage under pressure, though he did throw 2 touchdowns to 7 interceptions under pressure.

As the Buccaneers upgraded two wide receiver spots by bringing in Vincent Jackson, and two running back spots by bringing in Doug Martin, they also upgraded two offensive line spots by bringing in Carl Nicks. Nicks will start at left guard and move Jeremy Zuttah to center. Zuttah hasn’t played center in the NFL much before, but he’s a solid player who should be an upgrade over Jeff Faine, who was awful, ranking 30^th out of 35 centers on ProFootballFocus last year.

At left guard last year, Zuttah played alright, with an average 0.7 rating on ProFootballFocus. He run and pass blocked well, but committed 9 penalties. Penalties were an issue everywhere for the Buccaneers as they committed the 4^th most penalties in the league, 123. While Zuttah will be an upgrade at center over Faine, Carl Nicks will be an upgrade at left guard over Zuttah.

Nicks comes over from the Saints and is one of the league’s premier guards. He’s been a top-3 guard on ProFootballFocus for the last 3 years, the only one at his position who can say that. In fact, Nick Mangold, Trent Cole, and Justin Smith are the only ones at ANY position who can say that. Last season, he ranked 2^nd with a 28.4 rating.

Opposite him is an almost equally paid player, Davin Joseph, but he’s not nearly as good. Joseph ranked 54^th at his position last year, which is actually a lot better than the 72^nd he ranked the year before. For some reason, the Buccaneers gave him 7 years, 53 million after his horrid 2010 season. He’s a decent pass protector, but a terrible run blocker and, at best, he’s a below average starter at right guard.

At tackle, things aren’t much better. Left tackle Donald Penn is a solid player, whose 5.4 rating ranked 17^th at his position last season. He’s a better run blocker than pass protector, however, and allowed 9 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures, while allowing 7 penalties. Opposite him, Jeremy Trueblood only allowed 4 sacks and 5 quarterback hits, but a league leading 50 quarterback pressures. He didn’t run block well either and was penalized 7 times. He ranked 66^th at his position among 73 players.

Thanks to some offseason moves, the Buccaneers now have 3 average or better starters on their offensive line and have upgraded two positions. The right side of the line isn’t very good, but overall, this is a decent group. With an upgraded receiving corps and running back group, and a greater emphasis on the run, things will be easier for Josh Freeman, who should have a more efficient year. They should have much fewer turnovers, which should help them improve on an offense that was 27^th in the league with 17.9 points per game. In 2010, they ranked 20^th with 21.3 points per game. They’ll be closer to that in 2012.

Grade: B

Defense

While the offense won’t be much of a problem, the defense will be. Last year, they led the league in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed, allowing 30.9 points per game. If they turn the ball over less and run more, their defense will be on the field less, which will help. A full season from Gerald McCoy at defensive tackle will help, as will a coaching staff is going to bring much needed discipline to a defense that led the league in missed tackles, setting an all-time record. Still, 2010’s 9^th ranked defense, which allowed 19.9 points per game, seems well out of reach.

Defensive Line

I’ve mentioned Gerald McCoy. If he can stay healthy, it will be a huge boost to the Buccaneers’ defense. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers.

However, the 3^rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season. As a mere rookie, he ranked 18^th at his position on ProFootballFocus in 2010 and last year, in an injured shortened year, he finished with an above average 5.5 rating. In his absence, players like Roy Miller and Frank Olam had to play way too much. Both were awful, especially Miller, who ranked 84^th out of 89 defensive tackles.

Another player who played very poorly was Brian Price. Price ranked one spot better than Miller, ranking 83th out of 89 defensive tackles. Price was a 2^nd round pick in 2010, but he’s struggled through a variety of things in 2 years in the NFL. He’s battled weight issues and injury problems and was ejected by Head Coach Raheem Morris after a penalty last year.

He’s also had off the field distractions, most recently with his sister’s death in a car accident, after which Price had to be hospitalized for grief and exhaustion. Price lost two brothers earlier in his life as well. Football is clearly not the first thing on his mind and you can’t really blame him. Price was traded this offseason after starting a fight with Mark Barron in practice, a smart move that will help Schiano set a more disciplinary tone in the locker room.

He won’t really be missed. He didn’t play well last year and the Buccaneers signed Amobi Okoye, who will start in Price’s absence. Okoye was a bust in Houston, but played pretty well in a situatioaln role in Chicago last year. Gary Gibson, ProFootballFocus’ 16^th ranked defensive tackle last year, will also provide depth so they definitely have adequate depth this time around, should something happen to one of the starters. And if nothing happens to McCoy, that would definitely be for the best.

Outside, the Buccaneers don’t have as much depth. 2011 2^nd round pick Da’Quan Bowers has torn his Achilles and is expected to miss the entire season. Michael Bennett, one of the league’s most underrated players, will play a bigger role in the absence of Bowers, who was actually only 3^rd on the team at his position in snaps played. However, behind Bennett and the opposite end, Adrian Clayborn, the Buccaneers don’t have another depth defensive end. Jayme Mitchell was signed this offseason, but he was absolutely awful in Cleveland last year, ranking dead last at his position.

Fortunately, both Bennett and Clayborn are very good players. Bennett ranked 8^th at his position, 3^rd against the run, in what was a breakout 3^rd season for him. He’s very good as a run stuffer, but provided surprising production as a pass rusher as well, with 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 336 pass rush snaps, good for a 11.3% pass rush rate. We’ll have to see how he handles a transition to an every down role, but he has a bright future.

Clayborn, meanwhile, had a strong year after being selected 20^th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. Clayborn struggled against the run, but he had 8 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures on 434 pass rush snaps, good for a 11.5% pass rush rate. He could be even better in his 2^nd season in the league. He will have to improve against the run though. Still, the Buccaneers actually have a pretty good defensive line. It’s the back 7 that’s a complete mess.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Their linebackers will be better in 2012 than in 2011, but only by default. Mason Foster, Geno Hayes, and Quincy Black had ratings of -20.6, -12.0, and -20.9 respectively. Foster ranked dead last among middle linebackers, while Hayes and Black ranked 37^th and 42th respectively among 42 3-4 outside linebackers.

Hayes has been replaced, but by a mere 2^nd round rookie. Lavonte David will probably be an upgrade, but it’s unfair to expect much from him right away. Foster, meanwhile, was just a 3^rd round rookie last year, so he could bounce back, but it’s hardly a sure thing. 3^rd round picks only turn into starters about 30% of the time so it’s possible he’ll just never turn it around. He was truly awful last season.

Black was truly awful as well and he’ll return as a starter, by virtue of the ridiculous 5 year, 29 million dollar deal he was given after the 2010 season. He could be pushed by Dekoda Watson, their top reserve who has played pretty well in limited snaps in 2 years in the league, especially when you compare him to their other linebackers. He deserves a starting job, but he won’t get one because of Black’s salary. I suppose he could push Foster as well, as could Adam Hayward, who struggled in limited action last season.

Grade: C

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Secondary

Aqib Talib is a good player, but everyone else in their secondary is terrible. On top of that, Talib could be suspended, even though his assault with a deadly weapon case was thrown out. Talib allowed 28 completions on 51 attempts (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties. He obviously needs to avoid allowing the big play so often. A lot of his tendency to giving up the big play can be tied to the fact that he allowed 6.2 YAC per catch last season, worst in the league. He was better in 2010, allowing 35 completions for 59 yards (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties.

Aside from him though, everyone else is terrible. Ronde Barber was the opposite starter last year. He turned 37 this offseason and it shows. His play on the field was terrible last season. Only one cornerback had a rating lower than his -20.3 rating. He’ll move to free safety this season, but could still play nickel cornerback on passing downs. The reason for this is because incumbent nickel cornerback EJ Biggers is terrible. He actually ranked 94^th out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus, only a little bit better than Barber. Barber won’t be much of an upgrade on him on the slot and probably won’t play very well at free safety either. If Barber moves to the slot in sub packages, Cody Grimm or Ahmad Black would play safety. Both of them are very inexperienced. As you can see, things are very bleak in the secondary.

The reason Barber has the freedom to move to the slot or to safety is because the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright this offseason. Apparently having two bottom 6 cornerbacks wasn’t enough for the Buccaneers so they signed Wright, who ranked 93rd out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus. You tell me how this deserves a 5 year, 38 million dollar deal, in what was one of the offseason’s most head scratching moves. Wright made things worse by getting arrested for DUI, though the charges were dropped so he’s very unlikely to draw a suspension.

The last starter in the secondary is Mark Barron, the 7^th overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft. Barron is a good player, but was not worth a top-10 pick. He was reached for out of need and out of lack of depth at the safety position in the draft. He should be solid as a rookie, but expecting an Eric Berry type rookie year from him based solely on his draft position is ridiculous because he’s not as good as Berry.

The Buccaneers will once again struggle to stop opponent’s passing attacks and they should struggle once again the stop opponent’s offenses overall. They have a solid defensive line, especially if Gerald McCoy can stay healthy and they probably won’t miss quite as many tackles as last season. On top of that, they’ll have a little bit of an easier schedule and commit fewer turnovers and run more offensively, which means their defense won’t be on the field as much. However, their back 7, while upgraded slightly over last year’s absolutely miserable bunch, is still really bad.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Greg Schiano was a surprise hire for the Head Coaching job and he was reportedly pretty far down on their list, but they were actually rejected by several coaches higher up on the list than him. However, he’ll be an obvious upgrade, even if only by default, over Morris, who completely lost the team last season. He’s a disciplinarian who will run more, two things this team needs. He also did a very solid job at Rutgers, coaching there for 11 years, posting a 68-67 record with a program that is hardly a national powerhouse, and he commanded the respect of his players. His only NFL experience is as a defensive backs coach in Chicago in 1998. We’ll see how he does in the NFL as a Head Coach, but I’m optimistic.

Grade: C+

Overall

This team will be improved over last season, in fact, quite noticeably. They added a lot of offensive talent this offseason. They got rid of Raheem Morris, who completely lost the players. They won’t turn the ball over as much, according to history. They won’t be the 10 win team they were in 2010, when they didn’t deserve to win 10 games, and I can’t put them in the playoffs in the tougher NFC and in arguably the toughest division in football,  because they are 3-14 in the last 2 years against teams with a .500 or better record. However, they could definitely approach .500.

In the division, I think New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina are all better than them, but two of those teams, New Orleans and Atlanta, are pretty poor on the road. They beat both of them last season. They should go 2-4 or so in the division. Outside the division, they host Washington, Kansas City, San Diego, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. I have 4 of those teams in the playoffs, but they’re at home, so Tampa Bay should still go 2-3. On the road, they go to New York to play the Giants, Dallas, Minnesota, Oakland, and Denver. Minnesota and Oakland are easy games and the other 3 aren’t that tough, so there should be 2 wins in there as well. They play 6 teams who I think will finish worse than .500. 6 or 7 wins seems about right.

Projection: 7-9 4^th in NFC South

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