Offense
What a difference Peyton Manning makes. After winning 10+ games for 9 straight seasons (the longest active streak in the NFL at the time) and 12+ games in 7 of their last 8 seasons, the Colts won a mere 2 games last year and at one point sat at 0-13. Andrew Luck will undoubtedly help, but he’s just a rookie quarterback and quarterback was hardly their only problem last year.
This team has not drafted well for years and it shows. They haven’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2006. I went through and made a list of the top 5 and top 10 players at each position in the league (to be published at a later date). The only team in the league without a single one: the Indianapolis Colts. This offseason they lost several mainstays, including Dallas Clark, Gary Brackett, Pierre Garcon, and Jeff Saturday (who makes the list, by the way, now with the Green Bay Packers.
Their best players (Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis) are all over 30. For what it’s worth, I think they drafted well in 2012, but this is a complete rebuild and it will take several strong drafts for them to be respectable again. Andrew Luck living up to his expectations would definitely help (and for what it’s worth, I think he’ll be a fantastic player), but this team has a long way to go.
Quarterback
According to many, Andrew Luck was the top quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning or even John Elway. In my opinion, I think he was the top quarterback prospect since Eli Manning, but he’ll still be a very good quarterback prospect. I think he’ll have a very similar career to Eli Manning. He won’t quite have Peyton’s success, but he’ll still be a very good quarterback and he’ll do it playing in the shadow of Peyton Manning like Eli did.
He’ll take a few years to reach his potential and he’ll have to wait for the team to surround him with more talent before he can even think of winning any Super Bowls. He could break Cam Newton’s rookie passing yards record set just last year (their defense is very good so he’ll have to throw a lot). He won’t be as good of a runner as Newton, but he has some mobility, and he should be a little bit more efficient than Newton, who did throw 17 interceptions.
Grade: B
Running Backs
At running back, Joseph Addai is gone. Addai is actually the last Pro Bowler the Colts drafted (along with Antoine Bethea in 2006). However, Addai is already heading into his age 29 season and he had really struggled since his 2007 Pro Bowl season. He had only exceeded 544 yards once and 3.8 YPC once since. He’s also missed 17 games over those 4 seasons. He won’t really be missed.
In his absence, the Colts have given another 1st rounder, Donald Brown, a 2009 1st round pick, the lead back job. Brown averaged 4.8 YPC last year, but if you take away one 80 yard run, he averaged just 4.2 YPC, which is also his career average. A career disappointment, Brown has carried the ball just 341 times in his first 3 seasons in the NFL. The regime that drafted him is gone and the new one doesn’t seem to have much faith in him. They have no shortage of other options behind him so, while he will start the season as the starter, he might not end the season as the starter.
One of the other options the Colts have is 5th round rookie Vick Ballard. Ballard is the only one of their three running backs drafted by the current regime and he fits their new power blocking scheme the best. Given that the other two backs aren’t very good, he could be a real sleeper this season. The other option is Delone Carter, a 4th round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. He averaged just 3.7 YPC on 101 carries last season and the regime that drafted him is gone.
Last year, the Colts had 3 backs get significant, yet inconsistent carries in the backfield. Joseph Addai, Delone Carter, and Donald Brown all had more than 100 carries. That could be the case once again this season with Brown, Carter, and the rookie Vick Ballard. Maybe one of them will break out and be able to carry the load well, but it looks like the Colts will just have a mediocre trio.
Grade: C+
Offensive Line
None of their running backs will be running behind a good offensive line either. Their poor offensive line will also hurt Andrew Luck. The Colts brought in 3 new starters on the offensive line as they attempt to transition from a zone blocking to a power blocking scheme, so continuity will not be there. And two of those starters, Winston Justice and Mike McGlynn, were backups last season. Justice, who is expected to start at right tackle, struggled mightily as the starting right tackle in Philadelphia in 2010 and appropriately played just 84 snaps last year.
McGlynn, meanwhile, started some down the stretch for the Bengals last year in the absence of the injured Bobbie Williams. He finished with a rating of -9.0 on ProFootballFocus on 423 snaps. The Colts could start 2011 2nd round pick Ben Ijalana, who missed most of last season with injury, at right tackle and start Joe Reitz, an inexperienced player who was mediocre in limited action last year, at left guard.
However, it looks like Ijalana will be the starter at left guard. He’s got upside, but he’s unproven. He played 37 snaps last year. Jeff Linkenbach is another option at right tackle, but he played terribly last season, primarily at right tackle. With a -28.3 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 65th ranked offensive tackle last year, out of 73. He allowed 9 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties. Only 2 offensive tackles rated worse than him as a run blocker.
Samson Satele is the 3rd new starter. He started in Oakland last year and played pretty well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 18th rated center last year. He’s a better run blocker than he is a pass protector and he’ll fit the new regime’s power blocking scheme. He allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback pressures. His only issue was that he was penalized 8 times. He was also arrested this offseason, but the Colts don’t seem to care as they signed him 4 days afterwards.
The only projected starter on the offensive line who started for the Colts last season is left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo, the 22nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, made 12 starts at left tackle and allowed 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures. He was alright last year and he has some upside. Still, the fact that the Colts only return one starter from their offensive line from last year and that only two of their starting offensive linemen started anywhere last year is very troubling.
Grade: C+
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The Colts lost a lot of veterans this offseason, but one they returned, rather surprisingly, is Reggie Wayne, who clearly wanted to stay in Indianapolis and help guide Andrew Luck. Wayne hasn’t missed a game since 2001 and has caught 862 passes for 11708 yards and 73 touchdowns in 11 seasons, all with the Colts, since being taken in the 1st round in 2001. He even caught 75 passes for 960 yards and 4 touchdowns last year despite terrible quarterback play. Last year was the first time he didn’t exceed 1000 yards since 2003.
Not only did he surprisingly return to the rebuilding Colts, he may have taken a pay cut to return as the Colts got him for the very reasonable rate of 17.5 million over the next 3 seasons. A team trying to woo Peyton Manning (who was still unsigned at the time) may have paid him more than that. The one concern with Wayne is that he’s heading into his age 34 season and even elite wide receivers don’t stay elite much past 34. It’s likely he’s had his last 1000 yard season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he had one in 2012 based on the pure volume of targets he’ll get. He doesn’t have a lot of competition for targets.
Opposite him, the Colts will start Austin Collie with Pierre Garcon gone. Collie is a mediocre talent that Peyton Manning made look better than he was and he belongs in the slot, if anywhere. Last year, he managed just 54 catches for 514 yards and 1 touchdown. Those numbers should go up with a better quarterback this year, provided he keeps his starting job for the whole season (which he might do by default), but it should be noted than the 5.6 yards per target he averaged last year was one of the lowest averages in the league.
Behind those two, the Colts have two speedsters, Donnie Avery and TY Hilton. Avery caught 100 passes for 1263 yards and 8 touchdowns from 2008-2009 with St. Louis, but he has caught 3 passes in the two years since thanks to injuries. He said he ran a 4.26 40 this offseason, but that sounds like bullshit. More likely, he’s just a former one trick pony (speed) who has lost a lot of speed and explosiveness thanks to injuries.
Hilton, meanwhile, was their 3rd round pick. He’ll be one to watch because their new offensive coordinator is Bruce Arians, who is coming over from the Steelers. Arians has had success in recent years with similar speedsters in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, who were both also drafted in the 3rd round or later. I’d be willing to be that Arians is at least a part of the reason why Hilton was selected. Still, as a rookie, he probably won’t have much of an impact, but he could beat out Avery for the slot receiver job mid season if Avery struggles or gets hurt again.
One thing Andrew Luck has to be happy about is that the Colts brought in Coby Fleener in the 2nd round. Fleener was Luck’s favorite target at Stanford and given their lack of talent at wide receiver, Luck should target the tight end early and often, especially around the end zone. He could have an Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski esque rookie year as a receiver.
He’s not much of a blocker, but the Colts used a 3rd round pick on Dwayne Allen, more of an on the line tight end, which will free Fleener up to be the “move” tight end. They figure to use a lot of two-tight end sets given their lack of talent at receiver. Luck is very comfortable throwing out of two-tight end sets, as anyone who watched Stanford over the last 3 years can tell you, so I liked that they used their 1st two picks after Luck on this draft class’ top-two tight ends and two players who complement each other well. Other than that though, Luck doesn’t have a lot to be happy about in his receiver corps or his offensive supporting cast in general.
Grade: B-
Defense
The Colts’ offense was not their only trouble side of the ball in 2011. In painful symmetry, the Colts ranked both 28th in points scored and 28th in fewest points allowed, scoring 15.2 points per game and allowing 26.9 points per game. That’s what happens when you don’t draft well for years. Even if you were good to begin with, eventually the talent you do have ages and you’re left rebuilding from the ground floor.
The Colts are switching to a new defensive scheme under new Head Coach Chuck Pagano, who will be bringing over his 3-4 philosophies from Baltimore. Baltimore almost used a hybrid scheme last year as they used a lot of sub packages, but the Colts are now a 3-4 base. They are undergoing a complete defensive makeover and adopting a completely new defensive philosophy.
For years, they’ve used a cover 2 scheme based on speed and athleticism and now they’re switching to a 3-4 scheme based on power, strength, and physicality. It’s going to take at least a year or two for them to get the personnel to run a respectable 3-4 defense. Not only that, their two best defense players, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are over 30, declining, and learning a new position for the first time in their careers.
Defensive Line
In order to help with the transition, Chuck Pagano brought over one of his guys from Baltimore, defensive end Cory Redding. Redding knows the system, but he’s not just a veteran with experience in the system. He had a very good year last year with the Ravens. Redding is primarily a run stuffer, but he graded out above average as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher for the Ravens last year in a rotational role, with a 14.5 rating on ProFootballFocus on 511 snaps (including playoffs). He could see a bigger role in Indianapolis this year, because they have less depth.
He’ll start next to Drake Nevis, a 2011 3rd round pick who played pretty well in limited snaps last year as a rookie. Fili Moala, who was just horrible last year as a starting defensive tackle in a 4-3 with a -17.5 rating (86th out of 89 on ProFootballFocus), will provide some rotational depth, as will 5th round rookie Josh Chapman, and Brandon McKinney, another player Pagano brought over with him from Baltimore.
Chapman and McKinney could also see some snaps at nose tackle, but Antonio Johnson will start there. At 305 pounds, Johnson is hardly a true nose tackle and struggled last year as a 4-3 defensive tackle with a -9.2 rating. Especially troubling is the fact that he struggled the most against the run and, as a nose tackle, he’ll primarily have to stop the run.
Luckily, Pagano’s system uses a lot of sub packages so nose tackle isn’t that important of a position, but it’s definitely possible that Josh Chapman takes over as the starter by the end of the season. He was regarded as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect, before falling to the 5th for medical reasons. At the same time, the Colts could have to make nose tackle a priority on their offseason needs list next offseason.
Grade: C+
Linebackers
As I mentioned, the Colts’ two best defensive players are Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but the duo, once the envy of the NFL, is heading into their age 32 and 31 seasons respectively. Freeney is in the final year of his contract and the Colts tried to trade him this offseason, to no avail, while Mathis was given a head scratching 36 million over 4 years this offseason, in spite of his age.
Not only are they playing in a completely new scheme, they’re also declining players. They didn’t play badly or anything last year, but they weren’t their normal All-Pro selves. Freeney managed 8 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures on 435 pass rush snaps (11.3%), while Mathis managed 10 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures on 432 pass rush snaps (11.1%). They ranked 11th and 13th respectively among 4-3 defensive ends in terms of rushing the passer, which isn’t bad, but they’re not as good as they once were and, at their age, they probably won’t get any better.
They also don’t play the run well, especially not Freeney, who ranked 59th among 62 players at his position against the run. They won’t need to be that great against the run now that they’re linebackers, but they’ve also never been linebackers before. On paper, the switch would appear to be good for them, but games aren’t played on paper. It’s possible that one or both will become uncomfortable playing in a new spot on the field and being asked to do different things. It’s certainly happened before.
Behind them for depth, the Colts have Jerry Hughes, a 2010 1st round pick who has barely played in 2 seasons. They don’t have much confidence in him and he appears to be on the verge of being a bust. Even Bill Polian, the man who drafted him, admitted a year later that he shouldn’t have drafted him. That’s a very bad sign for his career. He won’t see much action this year, barring injury, and could be cut next offseason.
Between those rush linebackers, the Colts will start Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner. Angerer is one of the few (only?) talented young players the Colts have defensively. The 2010 2nd round pick had 148 tackles last year, good for 4th in the NFL. That number is a little skewed because he had so little talent around him so he was often cleaning up everyone else’s mess, but he’s still a solid player. He’s not a Pro Bowler, but a solid starter.
Conner, meanwhile, was absolutely awful last year, ranking 38th out of 42 4-3 outside linebackers on ProFootballFocus last year with a -12.5 rating. He was, however, alright against the run and that’s going to be more important at his new position so maybe he’ll emerge as a solid starter. At the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were benched for one of two inexperienced middle linebackers, AJ Edds and Mario Harvey. The Colts could make the middle linebacker position a priority of their offseason next offseason.
Grade: B+
Secondary
The Colts were an awful team against the pass last year, ranking 26th with 7.8 YPA allowed. Starter Jacob Lacey is gone. He wasn’t very good, allowing 50 completions on 68 attempts (73.5%) for 509 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 5 penalties, though he was good against the run.
However, his replacement in the starting lineup is Kevin Thomas, a 2010 3rd round pick who might be even worse. He really struggled last year in limited action, playing primarily on the slot, allowing 26 completions on 38 attempts (68.4%) for 404 yards (10.6 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. Out of eligible cornerbacks (25% of more of their team’s snaps), Thomas ranked 2nd worst in QB rating allowed, allowing a rating of 129.7.
Thomas will start opposite Jerraud Powers, who is a little better. He allowed 41 completions on 59 attempts (69.5%) for 508 yards (8.6 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and not getting penalized once. He’s an okay player, but the 2009 3rd round pick is hardly a #1 cornerback capable of covering opponent’s #1 receivers. On top of that, they have no proven depth at the position as Cassius Vaughn and Terrence Johnson will compete for the slot cornerback job.
At safety, the Colts have the last Pro Bowler they’ve drafted who is still on the roster, Antoine Bethea, a 2006 6th round pick. Bethea hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2009, but he’s still a solid player who had a 1.3 rating last year on ProFootballFocus. He’ll start opposite Tom Zbikowski, who Pagano brought over from Baltimore. Zbikowski has been alright as an injury fill-in over the past couple years in Baltimore, but this is his 1st chance to be a full time starter. He could struggle. If he does, Joe Lefeged, who was mediocre in limited action at safety last year, could take over. The two could also platoon with Lefeged coming in on sub packages as he’s better in coverage.
As is the case on the rest of the defense, the Colts do not have a lot of talent in their secondary. As they had other needs, the Colts did not spend a draft pick on their defense until the 5th round (Josh Chapman) and they only brought in one 2011 starter through free agency (Cory Redding). Meanwhile, they’re switching schemes and defensive philosophies completely and their two best players are over 30, declining, and changing positions.
They were the 28th ranked scoring defense last year and something similar could happen again this year. It will take a couple years for them to assemble the pieces of a respectable defense. Their problems last year were not just that Peyton Manning was hurt. They might have missed the playoffs even with him. They haven’t drafted well in years and it’s really showing now, especially defensively.
Grade: C+
Head Coach
Tough to grade a Head Coach who has never been a Head Coach before and not just in the NFL, but on any level. Pagano is coming over from Baltimore where he was the defensive coordinator last year and before that he was their secondary coach for 3 years (he’s also been a secondary coach in Oakland and Cleveland, as well as numerous places in the collegiate level). Getting someone from Baltimore’s defense seems like a good idea, but so many good coordinators fizzle as Head Coaches so it’s tough to get excited about him just yet, especially since he only has 3 years of defensive coordinator experience (Baltimore, UNLV, and University of North Carolina).
Grade: C+
Overall
The Colts may have the least non-quarterback talent in the NFL and this is directly rated to the fact that they haven’t drafted well in 5+ years. Andrew Luck looks like he’s going to be the real deal and I like what the new regime did with their draft this year, getting Luck offensive weapons to help his developmental.
However, they don’t have a single player in the top-10 at his position and their best players (Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis) are all over 30 and two are playing a new position this season. The one draft steal they’ve gotten in recent years (Pierre Garcon) is gone. They might not have even made the playoffs with Peyton Manning last year. They barely made it the year before, having to win their last 4 after a 6-6 start. Had they lost to Jacksonville late in 2010, they would have missed the playoffs.
That being said, quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and it’s amazing how much having a good quarterback can mask other problems. Luck should be able to be a top-15 quarterback from the word go. Cam Newton didn’t step into a team with a lot of talent either last season and he won 6 games. Luck could easily do that this year, so while it’s definitely necessary to have low expectations for this team for at least this year and probably the next couple years, they won’t be a doormat. They’ll win some games.
They don’t have that tough of a division. They even went 2-4 in it last year. I think Jacksonville is definitely worse than them and that they can beat Tennessee once like they did last year. They could win 2 or 3 divisional games. Outside of the division, they host Minnesota, Green Bay, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo. There’s 3 very winnable games in there at home. In the 11 games I’ve listed so far, they could go 5-6. The problem is that the rest of their schedule sends them to Chicago, New York to play the Jets, New England, Detroit, and Kansas City. Even if they aren’t very good, their schedule is set up for them to win 6 or 7 games. It’s easier than the surprisingly tough schedule Cam Newton faced as a rookie.
Update: Adding an extra game to their win total. Andrew Luck looked great this preseason and Vontae Davis will help their defense. They might have 5 or 6 win talent because of how bad their supporting cast it, but they have a cupcake schedule.
Projection: 8-8 3rd in AFC South
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