Month: July 2012

Chiefs’ Dwayne Bowe does not report for Training Camp

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Dwayne Bowe is one of the few unsigned franchise players remaining. He officially became a holdout by skipping the Chiefs’ first day of Training Camp Friday. It’s unclear what Bowe hopes to gain from this as he can’t be signed long term now anyway. He will become a free agent next offseason either way, so all he’s doing is hurting himself, and potentially costing himself money in his next contract, by skipping practice, especially with a new coaching staff coming in and other guys impressing in his absence. He can also be fined 30 thousand per day.

He’s set to make a guaranteed 9.5 million this season so he has 9.5 million reasons to report. He’ll probably report sooner rather than later. It doesn’t sound like a Cliff Avril situation as Avril has told the Lions not to expect him for “at least a couple weeks.” This season sounds like it will be Bowe’s final with the Chiefs. The two sides were nowhere close when they could have negotiated a new deal. The Chiefs have 2011 1st round pick Jonathan Baldwin waiting in the wings, along with the veteran Steve Breaston. They also just used a 4th round pick on Devon Wylie, another receiver.

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Rams, Steven Jackson working on an extension

stevenlourie News, Rams

Steven Jackson is now 29 years old and has 2138 career carries. The average member of the top-25 all-time leaders in rushing yards has his last 1000 yard season at age 30 and 2602 career carries (Jackson currently sits at 32nd all-time and will likely finish his career in the top-25). After that players have a big drop off and they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Because of this, the Rams wisely decided to use a 2nd round pick on a running back, Isaiah Pead, in this past NFL Draft.

Nonetheless, they are still working on an extension with Steven Jackson, as he revealed in an interview with Pro Football Talk this week. Jackson is owed 7 million per year over the final 2 years of his contract, which take him through his age 30 season. Based on history, Jackson cannot be counted on to contribute much in 2014 and beyond and may even break down before that.

An extension would seemingly serve no purpose except as an act of good faith for a player who has been so tough for so many years on an otherwise mediocre team. Still, it probably would not be a wise football decision, unless it was similar to the extension that Adrian Wilson recently signed and cut his base salary over the next 2 seasons and didn’t guarantee any new money. Wilson, in exchange, got his salary for the next 2 seasons guaranteed, albeit at a smaller base salary, and was given incentives that would allow Wilson to “earn back” his old base salary. Jackson did express he wants to retire as a member with the Rams, so maybe a deal like that would make sense for both sides.

Jackson also admitted in the same interview that he would not be happy if the Rams tried to give Pead a large role as a rookie and said he wants to remain a “workhorse” who gets “25 to 30 touches per game.” The Rams would be wisest to allow Pead to prove himself as more than a pure backup as a rookie, which would keep Jackson fresher down the stretch, and deal with the fallout with an aging and no longer indispensable Jackson if there indeed would be any. Pead is the future, likely working in tandem with another power back.

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Colts make sense for Mike Wallace?

stevenlourie Colts, News

After signing Antonio Brown to an extension yesterday, the Steelers reportedly will not be signing Mike Wallace to an extension. He will either need to report and play out the season under a 2.7 million dollar tender or the Steelers will try to trade him. If he does report, he’s unlikely to be franchised and/or signed long term next off-season because of the cap situation that the Steelers are in. They’re very backed up against the cap right now and will remain backed up for the foreseeable future, especially after extending Brown. They had to restructure a bunch of contracts this offseason just to get under cap and that will have negative effects on their cap situation in the future.

If the Steelers do make Wallace available through trade, several teams figure to be interested and, while the Steelers were unable to get a 1st for him when he was a restricted free agent, they should be able to get at least a 2nd rounder for him. One team that makes the most sense for him is the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are technically a rebuilding team, but at age 26 (on August 1st), Wallace should still have about 4 more peak years in him so he’s a fit for any team.

The primary reason why Wallace is a fit for the Colts is Bruce Arians. Arians is the Colts’ new offensive coordinator and had previously been the Steelers’ offensive coordinator for Wallace’s entire career there. One of the reasons that receivers don’t have a have good track record when switching teams is because they have to learn a new system and adjust to a new quarterback. Those things are especially a problem when switching teams this close to the start of the season. However, rejoining Arians would eliminate at least one of those problems as Wallace probably knows that playbook and that system better than most of the receivers there right now.

Arians’ system is a downfield one that requires speed receivers, but the Colts currently lack those. Austin Collie is an unathletic possession receiver, while Reggie Wayne is heading into his age 34 season. He had good speed in his prime, but was never a true speedster like Wallace, and now he’s undoubtedly lost at least a step. The Colts used a 3rd round pick on a true speedster in TY Hilton, hoping to have the same success he had with Wallace (a 3rd round pick) and Antonio Brown (a 6th round pick). However, he’s still no sure thing at all. The Colts also signed Donnie Avery, a former speedster, but he’s only caught 3 passes in the last 2 years combined and he might be damaged goods after all of his injuries.

Wallace would instantly become Luck’s best receiver and the true speedster Arians’ offense requires. He would also upgrade a position of major weakness for the Colts. They have two talented tight ends, but their wide receiver talent is still below average. Wayne is almost 34, Collie isn’t very good, and Hilton and Avery are major unknowns.

The Colts used the #1 overall pick on Andrew Luck so they would be wise to do everything to make sure he can succeed. I’ve always believed that when rebuilding a team from scratch, which the Colts are essentially doing (they haven’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2006), you start with the quarterback, then you get him the offensive pieces needed to succeed when he’s young, even if it means ignoring the defense for a couple years.

Most teams agree with me because of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 took an offensive player with their next pick. The Colts took that to the extreme this year by using their next 3 picks on offensive players (TE, TE, WR) and ignoring the defense until the 5th round, even though they have plenty of needs defensively. Defensive minded Head Coach Chuck Pagano feels he can coach up late rounders and the players he inherited from the last regime. They should continue that plan and acquire Wallace. He’s worth a 2nd rounder, and the 55-60 million over 5 years he desires, to them.

He probably isn’t worth that much anywhere else because of how much receivers tend to struggle after switching teams so while the Panthers, Rams, Vikings, Bills, and Seahawks make some sense, the Colts make the most sense. With an estimated 14.59 million of cap space at the moment, they definitely have the cap space for him as well, so that won’t be an issue.

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Colts make sense for Mike Wallace?

Lions’ Cliff Avril not expected to show “for at least a couple of weeks”

stevenlourie Lions, News

Cliff Avril is one of the few remaining unsigned franchise players after rejecting a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal from the Lions before the July 16th deadline. According to the Detroit News, the Lions don’t expect him to sign any time soon. The report says that Avril is expected to miss “at least a couple of weeks.” Still, Avril almost definitely won’t miss any regular season games, if only because he has 10.6 million reasons not to (meaning dollars owed guaranteed).

I don’t even understand what he’s gaining by skipping at least a couple weeks. He’ll avoid injury, but he also risks losing playing time and getting out of shape, two things that could hurt his production and cost him dollars on a long term deal next offseason when he’ll be a free agent again. He also can be fined 30 thousand per day and he can’t be signed to a long term deal until next offseason anyway.

The Lions have adequate defensive end depth with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Willie Young, Lawrence Jackson, and 4th round rookie Ronnell Lewis. It’s looking more and more likely that this will be Avril’s last year in Detroit. I think there’s even an outside shot that they trade him before the season. More likely, he signs elsewhere next offseason, either on his own or through a sign and trade after the Lions franchise him again.

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Jets can send Jeff Otah back to Panthers if he can’t pass physical

stevenlourie Jets, News

The Panthers shipped Jeff Otah to the New York Jets earlier this week for a conditional late round pick. Otah, the 19th pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, was once one of the better right tackles in the league, but he’s missed every game but 4 in the last 2 seasons with injuries and now looks like a bust. Otah has also reportedly been accused by the Panthers’ coaching staff of being “soft” and not wanting it enough.

However, the deal is not final yet. According to Pro Football Talk, Otah will have to pass a physical with the Jets for the trade to be valid. That’s hardly uncommon, but it doesn’t sound like Otah has done that yet. He has a week to do so, per the trade agreement, so if he hasn’t passed one by Monday, he’ll be sent back to Carolina and the trade will be nullified. Considering they barely got anything for him in the first place, they might just outright cut him if that happens. It’s unlikely anyone else would try trading for him. Otah’s chances to be the Jets’ week 1 right tackle don’t look as good as they used though, even though incumbent Wayne Hunter is terrible.

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Bryant McKinnie’s days with the Ravens numbered?

stevenlourie News, Ravens

Bryant McKinnie has missed the start of Raven’s Training Camp with what was only described by Head Coach Jim Harbaugh as an “issue.” This has led to speculation that McKinnie could be cut, speculation that NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora says is true. According to La Canfora, McKinnie’s days “appear quite numbered in Baltimore.” In the mean time, the Ravens are fining McKinnie 30 thousand every day he misses.

This is just the latest issue for McKinnie since the end of the lockout almost one calendar year ago. Once one of the league’s better offensive tackles, McKinnie showed up overweight for the Vikings out of the lockout and was promptly cut. He got himself back into decent shape and played alright at left tackle for the Ravens last year, but weight and durability issues reared their head again when McKinnie had to miss minicamp to work on his conditioning. After that, McKinnie was given an ultimatum by the Ravens coaching staff, who told him he’d be cut if he wasn’t at 345 pounds by Training Camp.

Now it’s Training Camp and McKinnie is not out there and, unlike minicamp, it doesn’t appear to be an excused absence as he’s being fined. The Ravens are operated right now as if Michael Oher, previously their right tackle, will be their left tackle and the inexperienced Jah Reid, a 2011 3rd round pick, will be their right tackle. Oher has struggled thus far in his career at left tackle.

The Ravens have guard depth with Bobbie Williams and Kelechi Osemele, so they could also move right guard Marshal Yanda to right tackle, where he played in 2010. That would, however, mean the Ravens would be playing their best offensive lineman out of position and I don’t know that starting both the 36-year-old Williams and the inexperienced rookie Osemele at guard, with Yanda out of position at right tackle, is any better than just starting Reid at right tackle. Things are starting to look pretty bleak in front of Joe Flacco in Baltimore.

As for McKinnie, he could be cut in the next few days. Heading into his age 33 season, if he’s cut, he might have a very tough time finding a new team. Being cut by two teams in a twelve month span for weight related issues hardly puts a “sign me” label on a player, even one who is a former Pro-Bowler (2009). Don’t be surprised at all if McKinnie has played his last snap in the NFL.

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Jaguars have no intentions of negotiating with Maurice Jones-Drew

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

Maurice Jones-Drew officially became a holdout on Thursday by not reporting for the first day of Training Camp. MJD is underpaid, making just 9.3 million combined over the next two seasons and at age 27, he’s wise to hold out for one last big payday, especially since it looks like he’ll be stuck on a losing team for at least another year. However, the Jaguars still say they have no intentions of negotiating with Maurice Jones-Drew and want him to “fulfill his commitment,” though the Jaguars, like every other team in the league, often don’t fulfill their commitments to underachieving and overpaid players and cut them.

Jaguars fans should be prepared for a lengthy game of chicken between Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars’ front office. One side will almost definitely cave before the start of the season, so I don’t expect Maurice Jones-Drew to miss any games, but missing Training Camp and the Preseason, much like Chris Johnson did last offseason, could have a major negative effect on MJD’s production next season, especially with a new coaching staff coming in.

MJD is also coming off a season in which he led the league in carries, which could lead to him being worn out this season.  Since 1988, only 4 of 23 running backs who led the league in carry surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. 2 of those backs were Emmitt Smith and one was a 22 year old Edgerrin James in his 2nd year in the league. The other was a 27 year old Clinton Portis, so it’s not impossible to do it several years into your career without being Emmitt Smith, but the numbers are against him. Portis also went on to break down the very next year (124/494/1) and was out of the league before his 30th birthday. MJD is 27, by the way.

Since 1988, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 368.8 carries per season, rushed for 1621.0 yards, and scored 14.6 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 273.8 carries per season, rushed for 1091.7 yards, and scored 9.2 touchdowns. An extended holdout won’t help matters. MJD accounted for a 90s-esque 47.7% of his team’s yards from scrimmage last year, so the Jaguars could be even worse this season offensively, unless a new coaching staff and some new weapons can turn Blaine Gabbert from lame duck to serviceable.

In fantasy leagues, meanwhile, MJD should be avoided in the 1st round, especially on such a desolate offense overall. Let him be someone else’s problem and if you do draft him at any point, make sure to draft handcuff Rashad Jennings, his top backup, as well. Jennings is also a nice high upside sleeper late for all owners.

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Jermon Bushrod, Saints have not begun talks on an extension

stevenlourie News, Saints

According to the New Orleans Times-Picayune the Saints are not planning to open talks with Jermon Bushrod, who is heading into a contract year, before the season. On the surface, Bushrod is a valuable member of the Saints’ offense. He has allowed just 7 sacks in the last 2 seasons on one of the league’s most pass heavy offenses and made the Pro-Bowl last year. Pro-Bowl offensive tackles are rarely allowed to hit the open market, almost as rarely as Pro-Bowl quarterbacks.

However, while Bushrod has one of the most important blindsides in the NFL to protect, he also has one of the easiest. Drew Brees doesn’t quite have Peyton Manning’s legendary pocket presence, but he’s pretty close. He essentially protects his own blindside with how well he feels the pass rush and how quickly he makes decisions and releases the ball.

Brees has only taken a sack 82 times in the last 4 years on 674 pressured drop backs (12.2%), the best rate in the league over that period by who has played in all 4 seasons (sorry, Peyton Manning). A deeper look at Bushrod’s stats shows that he is really a product of Drew Brees’ abilities. Bushrod has allowed 20 quarterback hits and 90 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons, yet only the aforementioned 7 sacks.

The Saints were pretty backed up against the cap this offseason and the massive extension they gave to Brees this off-season doesn’t help matters cap wise. The Saints would be wise not to hand out another large contract to Bushrod, who is really a replacement level player disguised as a Pro-Bowler with the help of his quarterback. Unless Bushrod takes another team friendly deal like he did last offseason (2 years, 9.8 million), he might be wearing another uniform in 2013. The Saints have Charles Brown, a 2010 2nd round pick, as an in house replacement.

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“No way” the Steelers would franchise Mike Wallace in 2012?

stevenlourie News, Steelers

After extending Antonio Brown earlier today, news came out that the Steelers would not be giving Mike Wallace an extension and that he would either have to play out the season on his restricted tender, roughly 2.7 million, or be traded. Some speculated that Wallace, if he signs his tender, would be franchised next offseason. However, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Ed Bouchette, there is “no way” that would happen.

I have to agree with the latter. The Steelers almost definitely couldn’t afford to pay Wallace the nearly 10 million guaranteed that the wide receiver franchise tag would be worth next offseason, especially not after extending Brown. The Steelers are backed up against the cap this offseason and figure to be backed up against the cap again next offseason, after restructuring several contracts this offseason just to get under the cap. They also don’t “need” Wallace, with two young, talented receivers in Brown and Emmanuel Sanders on the roster.

The Steelers have probably known all along that they would only be able to keep one of their two wide receivers long term and rather than give Wallace the 60 million over 5 years he wants, they gave Brown 42.5 million over 5 years. That seems like a better value. Plus, the “Steeler Way” doesn’t tolerate players putting themselves above the team like this (just ask Santonio Holmes). Wallace rejected a more than reasonable 5 year, 50 million dollar deal from the Steelers earlier this week.

Look for them to entertain trade offers in the coming days for Wallace. A pair of second rounders or a 1st rounder should do the trick and there could be a half dozen or more teams interested in the still just 26-year-old Wallace, including teams that might consider themselves rebuilding, because he is still young. Obvious landing spots would include the Colts, Vikings, Panthers, Seahawks, and Bills, all of whom have the cap space to get this deal done. The Rams also make a lot of sense, but they’d have to backload any deal to Wallace as they don’t have a lot of cap space.

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July 27th Fantasy Football Stock Report (Pittsburgh Steelers Edition)

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Fantasy Football Stock Updates, Steelers

WR Mike Wallace DOWN

Mike Wallace will either play out the season under his one year tender or be traded. Regardless of whether or not he gets traded, Wallace’s fantasy value could take a major hit this season. If he reports, it’ll likely be after a long holdout, which could led to him getting out of shape and will cost him valuable time learning the playbook, while other receivers like Brown and Sanders are gaining greater mastery of Todd Haley’s new system. He could also hold out into the season.

If he gets traded, he’ll be traded to a team likely with an inferior quarterback and receivers have a poor track record when switching teams, especially this close to the season. It takes time to learn a playbook and get adjusted to a quarterback. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues, especially at his current ADP in the early 4th round.

WR Antonio Brown UP

If Wallace is traded or holds out into the season, Brown immediately becomes the #1 receiver. Even Wallace isn’t traded, Brown could still be the #1 receiver because he’ll have better mastery of Todd Haley’s new offense and because he won’t run the risk of getting out of shape. He’s heading into his 3rd year, normally a big breakout year for receivers. He should have career highs across the board.

WR Emmanuel Sanders UP

If Wallace holds out into the season or gets traded, Sanders would move into the starting lineup. At the very least, he’s a valuable handcuff for Wallace owners. He’s got a lot of upside late in fantasy drafts. He’s plenty talented and also heading into his 3rd year in the league. Even if Wallace reports before the season starts, he could be a bigger part in the offense because he’ll know the offense better than Wallace and he won’t run the risk of getting out of shape. Todd Haley’s offenses typically feature lots of 3-wide receiver sets anyway, like with Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston in Arizona.

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