Broncos offer Ryan Clady 5 years, 50 million

July 22, 2012 stevenlourie Broncos, News

As he heads into the final year of his rookie contract, the Broncos have reportedly offered left tackle Ryan Clady a 5 year, 50 million dollar deal extension with 28 million guaranteed, according to the Denver Post. The same source said that Clady, the 12^th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, would likely reject the deal as he seeks a deal equal to or exceeding the 8 year, 92 million dollar deal that Joe Thomas got last offseason.

Clady is definitely not worth that based on his play over the past few years. Clady played pretty well as a rookie in 2008 in Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme, not allowing a sack, though he did allow 7 quarterback hits, and 37 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties. In the 3 years since, he’s allowed a combined 20 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 83 quarterback pressures, while getting penalized 27 times. Last year was his worst year, as he rated 61^st out of 73 offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus.

He’s probably not even worth the 50 million the Broncos offered him, let alone Joe Thomas money. 50 million is top-5 offensive tackle money. Still, teams rarely let their left tackles hit the open market. Good offensive tackles are almost as rare on the open market as quarterbacks and switch teams more rarely than any position other than quarterback. If they can’t come to an agreement before the season, which seems unlikely unless one side caves big time, they’ll probably franchise tag him next offseason. As for this season, Clady gets a gift as he gets to protect the blindside of Peyton Manning, who is notoriously easy to protect.

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2012 NFL Power Rankings- July

July 22, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, Preseason 2012 NFL Power Rankings

Schedules taken into account. Not a parrot back of what happened last season. Predictions for the 2012 season based strongly on the fact that an average team’s record changes by 3 wins per season in either direction.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

31. Oakland Raiders

30. Cleveland Browns

29. Arizona Cardinals

28. Kansas City Chiefs

27. Minnesota Vikings

26. Cincinnati Bengals

25. New York Jets

24. Indianapolis Colts

23. Miami Dolphins

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21. Dallas Cowboys

20. Carolina Panthers

19. San Francisco 49ers

18. Detroit Lions

17. Seattle Seahawks

16. Tennessee Titans

15. Baltimore Ravens

14. Atlanta Falcons

13. New York Giants

12. St. Louis Rams

11. Buffalo Bills

10. Denver Broncos

9. Washington Redskins

8. San Diego Chargers

7. New Orleans Saints

6. Chicago Bears

5. Houston Texans

4. Philadelphia Eagles

3. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

1. Green Bay Packers

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Atlanta Falcons 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 22, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Offense

The Falcons have made the playoffs in each of the last 2 seasons, but have not won a single playoff game. Matt Ryan, in fact, has not won a playoff game in his career, despite making the playoffs in 3 out of his 4 seasons in the NFL. For what it’s worth, I think too much is being made of Ryan’s inability to win a playoff game. Peyton Manning started 0-3 in his career in the playoffs and Ryan got unlucky enough to run into the eventual Super Bowl Champion in his first playoff game in his last 2 playoff appearances.

Still, the Falcons are changing things up this offseason and going with a fundamental change on offense that really started in last year’s draft. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is gone and his conservative run first/short pass offense is gone with him. Instead, the Falcons have brought in Dirk Koetter, previously the offensive coordinator in Jacksonville.

Koetter is planning on opening things up more. Julio Jones, who the Falcons drafted after pulling off a blockbuster trade during the 2011 NFL Draft, will become more of the focal point of the offense, while an aging Roddy White will become less so, according to numerous statements from several coaches and White himself.

When the Falcons drafted Jones, it signaled the beginning of a switch in offensive philosophies. Jones was both the kind of deep threat they hadn’t had before and also represented the kind of aggressive focus on the wide receiver position that they hadn’t had before either, as they gave up two 1^st round picks, a 2^nd round pick, and two 4^th round picks for the 6^th overall pick, which they used on Jones.

The Falcons also plan on running less and passing more this year. Matt Ryan has averaged just 522 passing attempts per 16 games in his 4 year career thus far, while the Falcons have ranked in the top-11 in rushing attempts in each of the last 4 years. They won’t just be running less overall. Michael Turner, an aging player, will see a smaller percentage of the carries overall, signaling a switch from a one-back system to a multi-back system. Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5^th round pick also from the aforementioned 2011 NFL Draft, will see more carries and give the offense a speed/pass catching back that it previously lacked.

The 2012 Atlanta Falcons’ offense will look foreign to many people who have followed the Falcons for years. They will take more shots downfield, pass more and run less, use multiple backs, run more screens to the backs, and run more outside the tackles than ever before. This switch could give them the offense they need to compete with the Packers, the Saints, and the Patriots of the world and lead to Matt Ryan having an Eli Manning type breakout year, with perfect timing too with the Saints dealing with off the field stuff. However, it could also have unintended negative consequences.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan has been very solid in his first 4 seasons, going 42-20, completing 60.9% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA and 95 touchdowns to 46 attempts. He’s never won a playoff game, but, as I’ve already mentioned, he’s run into some bad luck and he’s led the Falcons to the playoffs in each of the three seasons in which he played 16 games. Last season, he completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. His adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 4th in the league at 92.45, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.

He had his skeptics coming out of Boston College in 2008 because he doesn’t have great arm strength, but he’s proven to be well worth the 3^rd overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. He’s run Mike Mularkey’s conservative offense very well and Mularkey did a great job of scheming to highlight Ryan’s strengths and mask his weaknesses.

However, now Mularkey is gone. Ryan will be counted on to throw downfield more often in Dirk Koetter’s offense and pass more overall and I don’t know that he’s the right quarterback for Koetter’s offense (or if Koetter is the right offensive coordinator for Matt Ryan’s skill set). Last season, including playoffs, Ryan completed just 16 of 63 passes that went 20+ yards or more through the air and was accurate (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) on just 30.2% of those passes (2^nd worst to Blaine Gabbert).

That wasn’t such a huge deal under Mularkey because only 10.4% of Ryan’s attempts went longer than 20 yards in the air last year, 24^th out of 30 eligible quarterbacks, but that won’t be the case this year. Ryan’s struggles with the deep ball weren’t limited to last season. In 2010, he was accurate on 35.3% of those passes, good for 30^th out of 37 eligible quarterbacks and those passes constituted just 8.5% of his attempts, good for 33^rd in the league. In 2009, he was accurate on 30.0% of those passes, good for 29^th out of 35 and those passes constituted just 8.9% of his attempts, 30^th in the league.

In his career, he’s completed just 69 of 216 attempts that went 20+ yards in the attempt, good for a career completion percentage of 31.9%. For comparison, he’s 1163 of 1806 (64.4%) on passes that go shorter than 20 yards in the air. He may throw for a career high in yards this season (his previous career high is 4177) because he’ll have more attempts and take more shots, but his completion percentage could be below 60% for just the 2^nd time in his 5 year career and he could definitely exceed his career high 14 interceptions.

The Falcons have been very good at limiting turnovers in the last 4 years, turning the ball over 21 times in 2008, 25 times in 2009, 17 times in 2010, and 21 times last year. That number could be closer to 30 this year and either cancel out the good done by the added explosion in their offense and have a negative overall affect on a Falcons’ offense that ranked 10^th in scoring in 2008, 13^th in 2009, 5^th in 2010, and 7^th last year.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Of course, a larger offense lean on Julio Jones over Roddy White might make the Falcons offense more efficient. Julio Jones is an absolute beast. Despite dealing with leg injuries last season and despite being a rookie coming off of a lockout, Jones managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games.

With the exception of him and AJ Green, 1^st round pick wide receivers have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns since 2005. His 959 yards were 3^rd among 24 receivers taken in the 1^st round since 2005 behind only Green and Dwayne Bowe. And he did that in 13 games, coming off a lockout, and despite dealing with injuries. Including playoffs, he had 31 catches for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns and in his last 6 games last season. He looks due for a huge breakout season. Even Jerry Rice thinks so. He’s like AJ Green with a better quarterback.

Roddy White, meanwhile, just ripped off his 5^th straight season of 80+ catches and 1200+ yards by catching 100 passes for 1296 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the surface, that looks very impressive. However, a closer look shows that he was not nearly as good last year as he had been in the past and that was his mostly just a volume receiver. Including playoffs, White caught 105 passes, but he did so on 186 targets (2^nd behind Wes Welker, who went all the way to the Super Bowl), meaning he caught just 56.5% of his targets. Including playoffs, he also dropped a league leading 17 passes. He had the 4^th highest drop rate in the NFL. Heading into his age 31 season, White is on the decline.

In theory, an offensive switch from White to Jones as the focal point makes their offense more efficient. On White’s 186 targets, he had 1348 yards, good for 7.2 YPA, actually on the lower end of the league. Jones, meanwhile, had 1023 receiving yards on 99 attempts, good for 10.3 YPA, on the higher end of the league. Jones also had 7.5 YAC per catch, 3^rd in the league, while White’s 3.4 YAC per catch was 84^th. When throwing to Jones, Ryan had a QB rating of 115.0, while he had a QB rating of 78.0 throwing to White. Whether this will cancel out Ryan’s inability to complete deep passes remains to be seen, however.

Harry Douglas, meanwhile, will line up in the slot. He’s a decent player, but he’ll once again have trouble getting targets behind Jones and White. He got a mere 62 targets last year, including playoffs, and turned them into a solid 40 catches for 505 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Tony Gonzalez will be the tight end. Gonzalez had a very good year last year with 84 catches for 919 yards and 7 touchdowns, including playoffs.

However, heading into his age 36 season, he’s one of the league’s oldest players and it’s unrealistic that he can continue this much longer. This year is expected to be his last in the NFL and the Falcons don’t really have another tight end that can step up if Gonzalez struggles. He’s also a terrible run blocker, ranking 3^rd worst on ProFootballFocus at his position in that aspect. The Falcons do have Michael Palmer to specialize in that, but he’s not a good pass catcher.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The other major fundamental change for the Falcons on offense is, of course, that they will run on a smaller percentage of their plays and that Michael Turner will receive a smaller percentage of the carries, according to numerous statements made by the coaching staff and by Turners himself. Turner, who was reportedly almost cut this offseason, is now 30 years old and has had 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons, which take their toll, especially for a running back who had 954 yards after contact, including playoffs, most in the league.

He was terrible down the stretch last year, averaging 3.6 YPC or less in 6 of his last 7 games, including playoffs. The one exception was a game against Tampa Bay, who might as well have not had a defense last season. This is nothing new as he averaged 3.8 YPC in the 2^nd half in 2010, after 4.5 YPC in the 1^st half of the season. He also fits like a square peg in a round hole in their new offense, which will feature more outside runs and screen passes to the running backs. Turner is purely a between the tackles power runner, especially at this point in his career, and he’s caught a combined 40 passes in the last 4 seasons.

Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers will see more snaps this season, especially Rodgers. Snelling is a solid pass catcher, but Rodgers has the explosiveness they want in a back and, while Snelling is a veteran heading into his age 29 season, Rodgers is a 2011 5^th round pick that the coaching staff loves and views as a huge part of their offense going forward into the future. He could be a breakout player for the Falcons this year offensively.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

In 2010, the Falcons’ offensive line was a major strength. In 2011, that was not so much the case. They weren’t bad, but they ranked 10^th on ProFootballFocus in pass blocking efficiency and 19^th as run blockers. Matt Ryan was only sacked 26 times because he only took a sack on 15.2% of his pressured snaps, good for 8^th best in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks. Those 26 sacks were the 6^th lowest number in the NFL. Even the Giants’ ferocious pass rush only got to Ryan twice in the Falcons’ playoff loss to the Giants.

The biggest difference from the 2010 Falcons to the 2011 Falcons was the loss of Harvey Dahl. Dahl, a talented right guard, jumped ship and signed with the Rams last offseason and the Falcons struggled to replace him. Garrett Reynolds got the first crack at the starting job, but struggled mightily. His -13.8 rating finished 59^th among 76 guards on ProFootballFocus. Joe Hawley then took over. His -5.2 rating was better, but still not great.

It was certainly better than the -9.4 rating that Hawley posted in 4 starts at center early in the season, which was the 56^th worst rating out of 65 players who played a snap at center last year. Hawley started at center in place of an injured Todd McClure for those first 4 games. McClure actually played really well once he returned as his 10.5 rating ranked 6^th at his position. He’s heading into his age 35 season though, so I don’t know how much longer he can keep this up, though interior offensive linemen do have a pretty long shelf life.

Three players, McClure, Hawley, and rookie Peter Konz will compete for 2 spots at center and right guard. Konz, a steal in the 2^nd round, deserves to be the week 1 starter at guard over Hawley, who struggled last year and McClure should remain the center until his play actually declines, leaving Hawley as a utility interior offensive lineman. However, it’s a pretty open competition right now and both Hawley and Konz have the ability to play both guard and center, while McClure is primarily a center.

The opposite guard is left guard Justin Blalock. Blalock has always been great in pass protection, but last year his run blocking abilities took a steep decline. In fact, he ranked 68^th at his position out of 76 on ProFootballFocus in that aspect. Maybe he can bounce back in 2012. In 2010, he ranked 11^th at guard overall and was an equally good pass protector and run blocker.

The worst offender on the Falcons’ offensive line both in 2010 and 2011 has been left tackle Sam Baker. The 2008 1^st round pick has been a bust to this point in his career. In 2010, he ranked 71st out of 76 at his position with a -26.7 rating. He allowed 10 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures, while committing 8 penalties and graded out as the 2^nd worst run blocker at his position. In 2011, he dealt with injuries and only made 6 starts, but still managed to allow 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback pressures, while committing 2 penalties and struggling some as a run blocker.

In his absence, Will Svitek was the left tackle, but he wasn’t much better. He graded out well below average with a -9.6 rating, struggled as a run blocker and pass protector, and allowed 3 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures in part time duty, while committing 5 penalties. He was the lesser of two evils at left tackle for the Falcons last season, but he was still not very good. With this in mind, the Falcons used a 3^rd round pick on Lamar Holmes, but he’s just a raw rookie. The trio will compete for the starting job in Training Camp in a competition that will have no winners.

Opposite him, however, right tackle Tyson Clabo is the Falcons’ best offensive lineman. His 12.6 rating ranked 8^th at his position last year and he allowed just 4 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, while committing 8 penalties, run blocking well and not missing a snap. The Falcons could move him to left tackle and then play either Baker, Svitek, or Holmes at right tackle, but they’re hesitant to do that because he’s so comfortable at right tackle, which is definitely a valid concern.

The Falcons offensive line should be fine in 2012. It might not be as good as it was in 2010, but it’ll be better than in 2011 most likely, especially if Peter Konz, a 2^nd round steal, can have an impact as a rookie. The bigger question is if they have the right personnel to run the new offense they’re going to, specifically quarterback Matt Ryan. They could turn the ball over more often than any Matt Ryan led team ever before thanks to the departure of offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. They’ve always been a good offensive team doing what they had been doing and it might be a case of “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it.”

Grade: B+

Defense

Defense is what’s broken for the Falcons, if anything. They ranked 18^th in the league with 21.9 points per game allowed last year. Credit the Falcons for trying to fix it. On one hand, they brought in Mike Nolan to be their defensive coordinator and, while he’s a terrible Head Coach, he’s always been a good defensive coordinator who has made things better defensively everywhere he’s gone. They also brought in Asante Samuel to shore up a hole at cornerback.

On the other hand, Curtis Lofton, one of their top defenders, is gone, signing with hated division rival New Orleans this offseason. Their top pass rusher, John Abraham, is now 34 and any decline from him would weaken what is already a poor pass rush and has been for years (151 sacks combined in the last 5 seasons, including 33 last season). On top of that, they don’t have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, which Mike Nolan normally runs. Nolan will not be running that style of defense this year, a smart move, but he’s always had his most success with a 3-4, so you have to wonder how he’ll do with a 4-3.

Defensive Line

I already mentioned how poor the Falcons’ pass rush is and has been for years. Last year, they managed just 33 sacks (35 including playoffs). John Abraham was a one man show last year, with 11 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 394 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.0%, one of the best in the league. With a 37.8 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked defensive end, and their 2^nd ranked pass rushing defensive end. He is, however, 34, so it’s fair to question how much longer he can do this. Even last year, they had to rotate him out of the game often to keep him fresh. No one else on the team had more than 4 sacks. They’ll need someone else to step up.

One candidate to do so is Ray Edwards. Edwards was given a fairly significant contract last offseason, but struggled in his first season away from Minnesota, where he had the benefit of lining up opposite Jared Allen. You’d think being able to line up opposite Abraham, the active leader in sacks, would help him continue his strong play, but it didn’t. He run stuffed well, but had just 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 438 pass rush snaps, good for a pretty mediocre 8.0% rate.

The Falcons love to rotate their defensive linemen so Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury also saw significant snaps at defensive end. Biermann struggled mightily in all aspects of the game, struggling against the run and managing just 3 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 345 pass rush snaps (for some reason, only 49 fewer than Abraham), good for a rate of 7.8%. Sidbury, meanwhile, was better in more limited action with 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 129 pass rush snaps (13.2%).

The Falcons love rotation on the defensive line, but if you only have one good pass rusher, all rotation does is take your only pass rusher off the field too often. With Abraham aging, they’ll probably have to continue to do that to keep him fresh and he could easily decline anyway, especially considering how good he was last year. That’s a tough rate to match regardless of your age.

They need another pass rusher to step up like Edwards, Biermann, Sidbury, or even 5^th round rookie Jonathan Massaquoi or 2011 7^th round pick Cliff Matthews. The Falcons haven’t spent a high pick on a defensive end since drafting eventual bust Jamaal Anderson 8^th overall in 2007. However, true to their quantity over quality form, they have used a 4^th round pick or lower on an end in 4 of the last 5 drafts (Biermann, 5^th round in 2008, Sidbury, 4^th round in 2009, Matthews 7^th round in 2011, Massaquoi 5^th round in 2012.)

The Falcons also love rotation at defensive tackle with 4 players getting between 369 and 669 snaps there last season. Those 4 players were, in order of snaps played, Corey Peters, Jonathan Babineaux, Vance Walker, and Peria Jerry. That figures to be the case again in 2012. Babineaux was once again the best of the bunch in 2012, ranking 13^th at his position with a 14.3 rate. He was good as a run stuffer and pass rusher and had 1 sack, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 367 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 7.6%, very good for his position.

Vance Walker and Corey Peters were both pretty average, with ratings of -0.3 and 1.0 respectively, but Peria Jerry was awful. He originally began the season as the starter, but lost his starting job to Peters and barely played down the stretch. He should once again play the least of the 4 this season, even though the coaching staff expressed their loyalty to the 2009 1^st round pick. He’s been a bust thus far in his career, thanks to injuries and I don’t see it turning around. Last season, he struggled as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher and his -9.3 rating ranked 80^th out of 89 defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Falcons lost one of their best defensive players, linebacker Curtis Lofton, this offseason and, even worse, he left to sign with the Saints. He played very well for them for years, including last year when he ranked 17^th overall at his position with a 12.3 rating and 11^th against the run. He wasn’t great in coverage, but he got the job done in that aspect and played all 3 downs.

Fortunately, the Falcons still have Sean Weatherspoon, who actually played better than Lofton did last season. Weatherspoon’s superior 20.4 rating ranked 5^th among outside linebackers. He too stuffed the run well, but he also added something as a blitzer with 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures on 89 pass rush snaps (20.2%). He wasn’t much in coverage either, but he’s a very good player and the 2010 1^st round pick could make his first Pro Bowl in 2012, his 3^rd season in the league, once he starts getting recognition.

Weatherspoon will start next to either Akeem Dent or Lofa Tatupu. Those two are competing for Lofton’s old job at middle linebacker. Dent is a 2011 3^rd round pick, who played just 12 snaps last year, while Tatupu is a 3-time Pro-Bowler (2005, 2006, 2007), who has had his career derailed by injuries. He was out of the league completely last year. The Falcons appeared to have the intention of playing Tatupu as a run stuffer and rotating in Dent in sub packages, but a pectoral injury suffered by Tatupu in the late offseason may have ruined those plans. Even though he’s only heading into his age 30 season, I don’t trust him to stay healthy.

The 3^rd linebacker will be Stephen Nicholas, a mediocre player who missed most of last season with injuries. Nicholas will only need to be a two down run stuffer as he’ll come out when the Falcons go to base packages and only use 2 linebackers, so he should be okay in that role. However, they don’t have any depth behind him. In fact, depth is a major issue in the Falcons’ linebacking corps, with Nicholas and Tatupu coming off injuries and Dent being unproven. Weatherspoon saves the group from being atrocious, but this is not a good bunch.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

The Falcons’ secondary is their strongest bunch. They ranked just 17^th with 7.2 YPA allowed last year, but that was mostly because they had no pass rush, starter Dunta Robinson struggled, and they had no depth. The Falcons brought in Asante Samuel this offseason, so that will solve at least one of those problems, as Samuel takes Robinson’s old starting spot and moves him to the slot, where he might be able to provide solid depth.

Samuel played very well last season in Philadelphia. He allowed 29 completions on 61 attempts (47.5%) for 296 yards (4.9 YPA), 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. His 52.4 QB rating allowed was 3^rd at his position among eligible players (50% of their team’s snaps). I know Philadelphia was trying to cut payroll, but the fact that he was able to be had for a 7^th round pick this past April was highway robbery.

Samuel will start opposite Brent Grimes, who ranked 7^th among eligible players in QB rating allowed last year. He allowed 25 completions on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and only committing 1 penalty. On paper, this duo would appear incredibly deadly and dominant as both allowed completion percentages in the 40s, but injury and age are issues. Grimes has been an injury prone player to this point in his career, part of the reason why the Falcons only franchised him and did not sign him long term this offseason. Samuel, meanwhile, is heading into his age 31 season and would actually be 32 in early January.

Dunta Robinson, meanwhile, was terrible last year. His -11.6 rating ranked 90^th out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus and he was even worse, 96^th, if we’re talking pure coverage rating. He has not been nearly worth the ridiculous 6 year, 57 million dollar deal the Falcons gave him 2 years ago. Moving him to the slot might help, but it might not.

At the very least, he’ll probably be better depth than Dominique Franks and Kelvin Hayden were last year. Franks had to step into the lineup when Grimes was hurt and allowed 19 completions on 28 attempts (67.9%) for 364 yards (13.0 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing a penalty. Hayden, who played primarily on the slot, allowed 21 completions on 28 attempts (75.0%) for 239 yards (8.5 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing 2 penalties. Hayden is gone, while Franks will compete with Chris Owens, who also struggled in limited action last year, for the 4^th cornerback job. The cornerback position will be a strength of the Falcons’ the season.

At safety, the Falcons have William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. Moore played well last season with a 5.7 rating that ranked 10^th at his position, but he missed significant time with injury and, in his absence, James Sanders played poorly. Sanders is gone, but the Falcons signed mediocre veteran Chris Hope from the Titans just in case. DeCoud, meanwhile, is an average player who plays the run well, but struggles in coverage.

Overall, while the Falcons clearly tried to fix their defense by bringing in Mike Nolan and Asante Samuel, they will still be an average defense next year. They lost Curtis Lofton, which left their linebacking corps weak and thin, and they probably will once again not have a good pass rush. Mike Nolan could help, but he’s not working with a 3-4, his area of expertise, so he might not help much. They allowed 21.9 points per game last year, 18^th in the league, and ranked 17^th against the pass, allowing 7.2 YPA, and 15^th against the run, allowing 4.2 YPC. This year, they could be a little better against the pass and overall, but this is still an average unit.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

He’s got the league’s most nondescript name and he might be the league’s most nondescript coach, but Mike Smith is actually a solid Head Coach. He took over a 4-12 team and has gone 43-21 in the 4 years since, though 0-3 in the playoffs. Mike Mularkey definitely helped and I don’t know about Dirk Koetter’s new offense, but Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator, so he’ll help, even if he can’t run a 3-4.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Falcons’ offensive switch could go either way. It could make them a much more explosive offense, with Julio Jones becoming more of a focal point, or it could cause them to struggle and turn the ball over more, hurting their offense overall, as Matt Ryan does not appear to be a good fit for the system. I lean towards the latter for two reasons.

The first one is Dirk Koetter. They aren’t only switching schemes, but they’re switching schemes from Mike Mularkey, an accomplished offensive mind, to Koetter, who has spent the last 5 years in Jacksonville, who is not exactly known for their offensive prowess. In his 5 seasons, the Jaguars ranked 6^th (25.7 points per game in 2007), 24^th (18.9 points per game in 2008), 24^th (18.1 points per game in 2009), 18^th (22.1 points per game in 2010), and tied for 28^th (15.2 points per game in 2011).

The other reason is that the Falcons have lost their offensive identity. For years, they were the strong conservative offense that would control the ball, run the football down your throat behind an excellent offensive line, pass well when they needed to, and play solid defense. Now what are they? There’s not one thing that this team is great at. You need an identity to win in the NFL.

If this team were in the AFC, I would have them winning 10 or 11 games and making the playoffs, but the NFC is a much tougher conference and the Falcons play in a very tough division. In fact, they’re division is so tough that I could see every team except New Orleans cancelling each other out and finishing around .500 and out of the playoffs in a tough conference. They’ll be a playoff contender, but I don’t have them in it (though they were one of the toughest “outs” I had when putting together my previews).

I have them going 3-3 or so in their division, as they face New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa Bay twice. Outside of the division, they host Denver, Oakland, Dallas, Arizona, and the Giants. They’re a good home team and that’s not that tough of a schedule so they could go 4-1 or so in those 5 games, but they’re not a good road team and they have to travel to Kansas City, San Diego, Washington, Philadelphia, and Detroit. The first two won’t be hard, especially since San Diego sucks early in the season, but the other 3 are tougher games. I’d say 8 or 9 wins is what it works out to be for them. They’ll be just on the outside of the playoffs and though I have them at 8-8, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went 11-5, but I’d be shocked if they 5-11. This is just kind of how it worked out for them.

Update: I had doubts about Matt Ryan in this new scheme, but I don’t anymore after watching him complete 75.0% of his passes for an average of 9.2 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception this preseason. He’s got an incredible offensive supporting cast and I feel he’s about the make the leap into elite quarterback territory.

Projection: 11-5 2^nd in NFC South

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New Orleans Saints 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 21, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Offense

The Saints’ offseason went about as badly as any offseason where you don’t lose major players could go. First there was BountyGate, which caused the Saints to lose their top pass rusher, Will Smith, for 4 games, their starting middle linebacker, Jonathan Vilma, for the season, and Head Coach Sean Peyton for the season. It also is a major distraction for the players and a major disruptor of team chemistry. On top of all that, it cost them a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 and 2013 NFL Drafts. Already missing their 1^st round pick this year, they didn’t have a draft pick until the 3^rd round, which hurt their ability to reload.

The other major problem was Drew Brees’ holdout. Brees is signed long term now, but it took them until right before the franchise player deadline. That was another distraction and major disruptor of team chemistry. When your franchise quarterback has to put in that much effort and that much time to get paid fairly, it starts to make the other players question if their front office has their best interests in mind. Brees also missed all of OTAs and minicamp, which will also hurt team chemistry.

Brees is signed now and won’t miss any of Training Camp, which will definitely help, and while they’ve lost other pieces this offseason, they still have the most important one, the quarterback. Even without Sean Payton, this team will be able to score tons of points as long as they have Brees. The Saints offense averaged 476.1 yards and scored more than 40 points six times in the 10 games Pete Carmichael Jr. called the plays last season, when Payton was in the booth with an injury. And I’m sure Payton will find some way to bend or break the rules to put his stamp on this team in some way.

Quarterback

Last season, Brees completed 71.2% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 46 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 110.6. Including playoffs, Brees completed 70.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. The Saints’ offense scored 34.2 points per game (4^th highest all-time in a 16 game season) and won 13 games despite an average defense that ranked 13^th in the league with 21.2 points per game allowed. 9 times out of 10, that wins you the MVP. However, Aaron Rodgers set the single season record for QB rating last year, averaged a higher YPA and a better TD:INT ratio, and led the Packers to 35.0 points per game (2^nd highest all-time in a 16 game season).

There are some areas in which Brees was actually better than Rodgers last season. He had better pocket presence, taking a sack on only 13.9% of pressured snaps, as opposed to 22.9% for Rodgers (all stats including playoffs). Only Michael Vick and Eli Manning took a sack less often when pressured. He also had an accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) of 68.6% under pressure, as opposed to 63.2% for Aaron Rodgers. Only Eli Manning was accurate on a higher percentage of his pressured throws.

Brees also ranked 3rd in deep accuracy (20+ yards or more) with a 53.5% accuracy percentage, 2nd in overall accuracy percentage with a 79.0% accuracy percentage, 2nd in yards in the air (total yards – YAC + yards lost on drops), and 2nd in adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch). ProFootballFocus graded him out as their best quarterback last year and his 70.7 overall rating led all players at any position. 2^nd place Justin Smith had a rating of 59.9, a pretty big difference.

The only hole you can poke in Brees is that he gets to play 8 home games in a dome and he’s not as good outside as he is inside. In domes, Brees completed 72.7% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA and 37 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, as opposed to 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions outside, including playoffs. There’s a reason why the Saints went 5-4 on the road and 9-0 at home.

Over the last two seasons, the Saints are 11-7 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 3.7 points per game. At home, they are 14-3 and outscore their opponents by an average of 13.4 points per game. They’ve been 9.7 points per game better at home than on the road. The Saints would have their best chance of winning the Super Bowl again if they get the #1 seed and home field advantage, like they did when they won it the last time. Luckily for them, if they make the Super Bowl, they’ll have the ultimate home field advantage because the Superdome hosts the Super Bowl this season. They will try to be the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium in NFL history.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Brees has no shortage of talented receivers to throw to either, though he does make them all look better than they are. The Saints like to use 4 different wide receivers, giving Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and Lance Moore all significant snaps last season. Colston was targeted 124 times on 598 pass plays (including playoffs), once every 4.8 pass plays, one of the best rates in the league.

He hauled in 96 of those passes (77.4%) for 1394 yards and 9 touchdowns, but didn’t do much after the catch as his 3.2 yards after catch per catch ranked 4^th worst among players who averaged 14.0+ yards per catch, behind Miami’s Brian Hartline, Chad Ochocinco, formerly of the New England Patriots, and Robert Meachem, Colston’s former teammate in New Orleans. He also only broke 3 tackles all year. Colston lines up in a bunch of different places, ranked 2^nd in QB rating when thrown to (134.3), and 6^th in yards per route run (2.45), but is largely a product of the system. There’s a reason he resigned with the Saints quickly this offseason, seemingly at a discount. One thing he does have is reliable hands, dropping just 3 passes last season, good for the 4^th best drop rate in the league.

Robert Meachem was the starter opposite Colston last year. He’s gone, but he’s pretty mediocre. On 532 pass plays last year, he was targeted 72 times, just once every 7.4 pass plays. He only hauled in 65.3% of those targets (47) and while his high YPC (15.9) led to 748 yards, his aforementioned low YAC per catch was just 3.1, largely because he broke just 2 tackles all season. He scored 7 times.

He’s being replaced in the starting lineup by Devery Henderson, an equally mediocre player. Henderson saw 561 passing snaps last year (which shows how much the Saints like to rotate receivers and use 3 and 4 wide receiver sets), but was targeted just 58 times, good for one every 9.7 passing plays. He hauled in just 38 of those targets (65.5%) for 616 yards and 3 touchdowns.

With Meachem gone, Lance Moore will see more of the field. Moore is a more efficient player who lines up primarily on the slot. On 336 pass plays, he was targeted 72 times, once every 4.7 passing plays. He hauled in 52 of those passes (72.2%) for 627 yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s a nice sure handed possession receiver. The 4^th receiver will either be the inexperienced Adrian Arrington or 4^th round rookie Nick Toon. Toon was a steal in the 4^th round and deserves to win the 4^th receiver job. If he does, he’ll see plenty of the field. He should eventually be a starter for them.

The Saints also get plenty of pass receiving production from tight end Jimmy Graham and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Graham played 651 passing snaps and was targeted 164 times (once every 4.0 plays) for 111 receptions (67.7%) for 1468 yards and 14 touchdowns. He led the team in all of those categories. Brees throwing to his tight ends often is nothing new. In 2010, David Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, and a then raw rookie Jimmy Graham combined for 108 catches for 1046 yards and 9 touchdowns. Graham essentially just consolidated all of those targets and used his superior athleticism to do the rest. He’s not much of a blocker, but he should have yet another strong season as a pass catcher in 2012. David Thomas, a better blocker, handles most of those duties.

Darren Sproles is listed as a running back, but he’s essentially a wide receiver. He ran 450 pass routes, as opposed to only 101 carries. He was targeted 130 times, once every 3.5 pass plays. He caught 105 passes (80.8%) for 877 yards and 8 touchdowns. He led all running backs in targets by 22, in receptions by 24, and in receiving touchdowns by 5.

Sproles wasn’t their only running back who contributed in the passing game. Pierre Thomas saw 238 passing plays and was targeted 62 times on those for a rate of once every 3.8 pass plays and caught 57 passes (91.9%) for 485 yards and a touchdown. Brees loves passing to running backs and tight ends. He’s got plenty of targets and knows how to get the most out of them. There’s a reason he was 3^rd in the league in yards in the air before drops per attempt (yards – yards after catch + yards lost in drops/pass attempts) with 4.7, only behind Eli Manning (4.8) and Aaron Rodgers (5.0).

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Sproles and Thomas also some saw carries as running backs, but the Saints don’t run nearly as much as they pass. In the regular season, they passed 662 times, as opposed to 431 runs. In the postseason, they passed 106 times to 50 runs. Sproles carried the ball 87 times for 603 yards and 2 touchdowns (6.9 YPC), while Thomas rushed for 562 yards and 5 touchdowns on 110 carries (5.1 YPC). Because of those two, the Saints were actually able to rush 4.9 YPC, good for 4^th in the league. Sproles and Thomas have career averages of 5.2 and 4.8 YPC respectively and are undoubtedly helped by the Saints’ passing game and offensive line, so they could replicate that in 2012.

The one guy they need to get going is Mark Ingram. Ingram was a 1^st round pick of the Saints in 2011, after they traded a 2^nd round pick in 2011 and a 1^st round pick in 2012 to grab him 28^th overall. The former Heisman winner struggled mightily as a rookie with injuries and rushed for just 474 yards and 5 touchdowns on 122 carries (3.9 YPC) in 10 games. He also only caught 11 passes for 46 yards, but he’s never been much of a pass catcher. Ingram had another knee surgery this offseason so things still look pretty bleak for him. He’s their best between the tackles and short yardage runner, so if they can get him going, it will be very good for their offense, especially around the goal line.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

The Saints also have a very strong offensive line that ranked 8^th on ProFootballFocus in pass blocking efficiency and 5^th as run blockers. Brees is a very good quarterback under pressure, but they did a very good job making sure he was protected as he ranked 18^th out of 22 eligible quarterbacks (50% of their team’s snaps) as he was pressured on just 25.9% of his team’s snaps.

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod is the weak point. Bushrod only allowed 3 sacks, but that was mostly Brees’ doing as Bushrod also allowed 11 quarterback hits and 42 quarterback pressures. He was a decent run blocker and penalized 6 times. He’s in a contract year and might not be brought back. Inexperienced 2010 2^nd round pick Charles Brown could challenge for his job at some point this season.

Opposite Bushrod, Zach Strief played much better. The right tackle was in just his first season as a starter and graded out well as both a run blocker and a pass protector. With a 15.2 rating, he ranked 2^nd at his position behind only Jason Peters. He allowed 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures, numbers that don’t look great, but remember how much they passed. He was also only penalized twice and run blocked well, helping pave the way for the Saints surprisingly strong ground game in 2011.

Also helping that was a strong interior offensive line. Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans are among the league’s best guards, while center Brian La Puente did a very good job in his first season as a starter. Nicks is gone, but the Saints signed Ben Grubbs from the Ravens. He’s not the elite player than Nicks is, but he’ll definitely get the job done. In 2011, he ranked 20^th at his position and in 2010 he ranked 10^th. Evans, meanwhile, is overpaid, but still a solid starter. He ranked 11^th at his position in 2011 with a 7.6 rating, while center Brian La Puente ranked 14^th among centers with a 4.5 rating.

Sean Payton is gone, but the Saints offense should be fine without him. Drew Brees is as good as it gets at quarterback and he’s got plenty of talented receiving options around him, as well as a surprisingly strong running game and a strong offensive line. Even with Payton gone, the system isn’t changing much and they did fine with him not calling plays when he was hurt last year. They also have a lot of continuity, which will help combat Payton’s loss, and Payton will still likely find some way to put his mark on this team, even though he’s technically suspended. They should be at least a top 5 offense and score over 30 points per game again this season.

Grade: B+

Defense

Sean Payton’s loss on defense won’t be felt much as he’s not a defensive coach. The Saints did well by bringing in Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. Spagnuolo was an excellent defensive coordinator with the Giants before taking a Head Coaching job in St. Louis, where he didn’t have much of a chance. Even there, he did great work with their defensive line and pass rush.

That’s a good thing because that’s where the Saints need the most help. The Saints had 33 sacks last year, which is a low total, but it’s even more pathetic when you realize that the Saints did that despite blitzing often. In fact, their team leader in sacks was their strong safety. Including playoffs, only 18 of their 38 sacks came from the defensive line. ProFootballFocus ranked them as the league’s worst pass rushing team. Even worse, their leader in sacks on the defensive line, Will Smith with 7, is suspended for the first 4 games of the season and heading into his age 31 season anyway. He’s not getting any better.

The other suspended defensive player is Jonathan Vilma. He won’t be missed as much. He ranked 52th among middle linebackers with a -18.4 rating last year and was equally bad in coverage and against the run. Now 30, his best days are behind him and he may have played his last game in a Saints uniform. He’s been suspended for the entirety of the 2012 season and the Saints wasted no time replacing him, signing Curtis Lofton, a much better player, from the Falcons. In fact, the Saints brought in 3 new starting linebackers and upgraded a major weakness of their defense.

On top of all this, the Saints should have more takeaways this year. They had just 16 last year, which hurt their defense. In spite of that, they still were a solid 13^th in points per game allowed with 21.2 points per game allowed. Since 2002, 38 teams have managed 20 or fewer takeaways. The following season, they have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games. A poor pass rush will hurt them in this area, but they should still be an improved team in this aspect. In 2010, they had 25 takeaways and in 2009, they had 39.

Defensive Line

In Will Smith’s absence, Turk McBride and Junior Galette will rotate at defensive end. McBride is a mediocre and inexperienced player, while Galette did a solid job as a nickel rusher last year, but struggles against the run. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 10.0%. Will Smith, meanwhile, had 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, good for an average at best 7.6% pass rush rate.

The Saints really need Cameron Jordan to get it going at left end. Jordan, the 24^th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft, stuffed the run well, ranking 6^th at his position in that aspect, but he struggled to get any pass rush with 1 sack, 6 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 365 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 6.8%. Martez Wilson, a 2011 3^rd round pick as a linebacker, has converted to defensive end and will see some snaps there this season as an undersized nickel rusher.

The Saints didn’t get much pass rush from the interior of their defensive line either. Sedrick Ellis has always been a strong player against the run, but he doesn’t always get much pass rush. Last year, he managed just 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 527 pass rush snaps, good for a poor 4.2% rating. Rather than adding a pass rushing interior defensive lineman this offseason, the Saints gave Brodrick Bunkley a 5 year, 25 million dollar deal and used a 3^rd round pick on Akiem Hicks. Both Bunkley and Hicks are better run stuffers than pass rushers, so those moves didn’t make much sense. Bunkley ranked 3^rd at his position with a rating of 26.8 with the Broncos last year, and first against the run, but managed just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback pressures on 213 pass rush snaps (3.3%).

Steve Spagnuolo is great at getting the most out of his defensive lines, but he doesn’t have much to work with. Their best pass rusher is aging and suspended for 4 games and neither of his replacements look like every down ends. The best case scenario is that Smith plays well in 12 games, doesn’t show his age, and Cameron Jordan breaks out as an inside/outside pass rusher, while Galette continues to play well in a nickel role, but even then they won’t be a great pass rushing team. Also, with Gregg Williams gone, they’ll blitz less, which was one of the only reasons they got any pressure last year. They could be one of the worst teams in the league in terms of sacks.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Saints didn’t stuff the run well last year either, allowing 5.0 YPC. However, the addition of Brodrick Bunkley will help, as will their overhaul at linebacker. Not expecting Jonathan Vilma, a declining player anyway, to contribute in 2012, the Saints signed Curtis Lofton from the Falcons to play middle linebacker, stealing one of their biggest rival’s best defensive players in the process. With a 12.3 rate, he ranked 17^th at his position last year. He’s best against the run, but not terrible in coverage and played all 3 downs for the Falcons last year.

The Saints also signed David Hawthorne this offseason, who ranked 19^th among middle linebackers with an 8.9 rate. He’ll move outside and be a major upgrade over JoLonn Dunbar. Dunbar struggled both outside and inside last year at linebacker, ranking 39^th among 42 outside linebackers and 49^th among 53 middle linebackers. Overall, he had a pathetic -26.3 rating.

Their other linebacker, Scott Shanle, wasn’t much better. Shanle only sucked at one position, but his -15.5 rating ranked 40^th among 42 outside linebackers. The Saints signed Chris Chamberlain to compete with him for the starting job. Chamberlain is only a two down run stuffer, but that’s all they need him to be and he was solid in that role in St. Louis last year under Steve Spagnuolo. With likely 3 new starting linebackers, the Saints have turned a group that was once a major weakness into a strength. That will definitely help them against the run, the specialty of all 3 new linebackers.

Grade: B+

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Secondary

The Saints’ secondary played well last year as they allowed just 7.1 YPA, 14^th in the league, despite struggling to get to the quarterback and often blitzing members of their back 7 in order to generate any pressure. #1 cornerback Jabari Greer allowed 74 completions on 137 attempts (54.0%) for 857 yards (6.3 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 17 passes and not committing a single penalty. His 17 deflections were good for most in the league, tied with Joe Haden. If a few of those turn into interceptions in 2012, that will help them improve their takeaway total, as history suggests they will. He got his hands on plenty of balls last season.

Opposite him, 2010 1^st round pick Patrick Robinson played pretty well as a starter, allowing 49 completions on 86 attempts (57.0%) for 575 yards (6.7 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 11 passes and committing 3 penalties. Slot cornerback Tracy Porter is gone, but he played really badly, allowing 62 completions on 87 attempts (71.3%) for 752 yards (8.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 4 penalties. The organization believes that 2011 3^rd round pick Johnny Patrick is ready to step up and take the job.

At safety, Roman Harper led the team in sacks with 9. He also had 5 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback pressures on 153 blitzes, good for an impressive 13.7% rate. He struggled in coverage though and ranked 83th out of 84 safeties with a -17.8 rating overall. He allowed 33 completions on 64 attempts (51.6%) for 437 yards (6.8 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 9 penalties.

Opposite him, Malcolm Jenkins also struggled in coverage and had a -8.7 rating, but the 2009 1^st round pick has been better in the past. He allowed 26 completions on 49 attempts (53.1%) for 555 yards (11.3 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. He allowed the 4^th most YAC of any safety in the league and missed 13 tackles. Between the two, they didn’t manage a single interception. Both allowed completion percentages in the 50s, but their coverage rating was hurt by their lack of interceptions. I don’t expect that to happen this year. They’re not bad players.

The Saints’ weakest group on defense, by far, is their defensive line, but they’re well coached there as Steve Spagnuolo is their defensive coordinator and that’s his specialty. They overhauled their linebacking corps and turned that into a strength and, in the secondary, they start 4 players who all allowed completion percentages in the 50s, despite the fact that they couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. Based on history, they should have more takeaways this year. That and their play against the run were their two weaknesses last year, but that should not be the case this season. They had the league’s 13^th ranked scoring defense last year. They should be around there this year and may even break into the top 10, like they were in 2010 (7^th with 19.2 points per game allowed).

Grade: B+

Head Coach

Their Head Coach situation is complicated. Sean Payton is suspended for the year. Interim Head Coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first 6 games of the season. Pete Carmichael Jr. is expected to be the Head Coach for the first 6 games of the season. He did a great job of calling the plays last year and he’s a great offensive mind who should keep things the same on offense even without Payton. However, the Saints will essentially have two different Head Coaches this year and neither of them have been the Head Coach before. Steve Spagnuolo is their only assistant with Head Coaching experience, but he’ll continue to coordinate the defense, which he should do a good job of. Still, if anything derails this team, it will be the coaching staff.

Grade: C

Overall

Under normal circumstances, this team might be my Super Bowl pick. They have one of the best offenses in the league and they have the talent defensively to be a top-10 scoring defense. They led the league in points differential last year with +208 and won 13 games. Last year, they might have been the league’s most well rounded team and, as bad as they are on the road, they almost beat the Packers in Lambeau week 1.

Over the last 3 years, they’re tied with the Patriots for most wins with a combined 37. Including playoffs, they lead the league with a combined 41 wins (Green Bay is at 40 and New England is at 39). This year, I think they’re an even more talented bunch, especially defensively with the addition of 4 new starters and a great new defensive coordinator. They’re the only elite offense that I actually trust to also be able to stop anyone.

But these aren’t normal circumstances. Drew Brees’ semi-holdout set them back in their offseason training and hurt team chemistry and morale, while BountyGate destroyed their coaching staff and gave them a major off the field distraction. Brees is back and will be under center this year, so this is still the favorite in a tough NFC South that really could be anyone’s (except maybe Tampa Bay, but even they’ll be improved). However, I think they’ll be a worse team wins wise in 2012 than they were in 2011.

Perhaps in 2013, once all of the off the field stuff has blown over, they can win the top seed in the NFC again and play 2 home games in the Superdome en route to the Super Bowl. As for this year, they’ll probably be the NFC’s #3 or #4 seed and have to play a road playoff game, which I don’t trust them to win, even though all of the off the field stuff could have blown over by then. Drew Brees has never won a road playoff game in his career (read that again, because that’s baffling). Neither has the Saints organization. They’ve lost in San Francisco and Seattle in each of the last 2 seasons on the road in the playoffs.

In the division, they have to face Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Carolina a combined 6 times. They have a tough schedule, but I think they’ll win all 3 of those home games and at least one on the road. I have them at 4-2 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Washington, Kansas City, early season San Diego, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. Except for the Philadelphia game, those could all be very easy games, even San Francisco, who beat them in Candlestick last year. The 49ers are not as good on the road and will find playing in the Superdome very tough, especially since I think they’re overrated. Their non-divisional road games are in Green Bay, Denver, Oakland, New York to play the Giants, and Dallas. With the exception of Oakland, those are all losable games for them and given their road struggles in the past, they could go 2-3 in those 5. That would put them at 11-5.

Projection: 11-5 1^st in NFC South

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Minnesota Vikings 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 21, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Offense

It’s crazy to think that the Vikings were in the NFC Championship game in 2009. 2010 was a lost year because they had a suddenly decrepit Brett Favre at quarterback and they won just 6 games. They started over in the 2011 NFL Draft, using the 12^th pick in surprising fashion on Christian Ponder, widely considered a 2^nd round pick. They also traded for Donovan McNabb, in hopes that his 2010 season was an aberration. It was not and McNabb was cut midseason, which forced Ponder to have to start before he was ready and the team finished at 3-13.

Adding insult to injury, their top offensive player, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL in a meaningless week 16 win over the Redskins. That win also dropped them out of the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin sweepstakes. Both of 2011’s two win teams did very well for themselves in the draft. Indianapolis picked up Andrew Luck and St. Louis flipped Robert Griffin to the Redskins and picked up 1^st round picks in the 2013 and 2014 NFL drafts. The Vikings, because they won week 16, were stuck at #3 and were forced to “settle” for Matt Kalil after trading down a spot with the Browns (picking up a 4^th rounder in the process).

Things aren’t all bleak for the Vikings, however. Kalil will be a major upgrade at left tackle from the word go and will allow the team to more accurately evaluate Christian Ponder, who simply couldn’t have been properly evaluated with the lack of offensive supporting talent he had in 2011. If they hadn’t been able to do so, it would have set the organization back another year. They need to know if they have something with Ponder.

Quarterback

Speaking of Ponder, he didn’t play all that well last season. He completed 54.3% of his passes for 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. However, he was a mere rookie on a team with a terrible supporting cast and he didn’t look like a completely lost cause. He also picked up 219 yards on the ground. He led an offense that scored 21.3 points per game, good for a not terrible 19^th in the league. In the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16^th in the league.

He spent this offseason adding 20 pounds bulk to his frame, in an attempt to fix his two biggest weaknesses, arm strength and durability. He’ll have a full season under center and a better supporting cast. The team had a Pythagorean Expectation of 5.5 wins last year, significantly greater than their actual win total, so they should be a better team this year, especially since they are more talented overall. However, unless Ponder can break out as a legitimate top-12 quarterback, this team will have a tough time making the playoffs, especially in such a tough division.

Grade: C+

Running Back

The 22.9 points per game that Ponder led this offense to in 9 games was undoubtedly aided by Adrian Peterson. Peterson had yet another outstanding season, rushing for 970 yards and 12 touchdowns on 208 carries (4.7 YPC). In his 5 year career, he’s rushed for 6752 yards and 64 touchdowns on 1406 carries (4.8 YPC). However, he tore his ACL week 16 last year.

Peterson, who has no injury history in the NFL (missed 3 games from 2007-2010) is doing remarkably in his recovery and could be ready to go for week 1. He may even be able to participate in some of Training Camp. This wouldn’t be a completely unprecedented comeback from this injury as Wes Welker returned in 8 months to be ready week 1 for the 2010 season after getting hurt in January of 2010. Peterson was injured in December of 2011, so this recovery would actually be a little longer. And if anyone can do it, it’s Peterson.

However, Welker struggled in the 2010 season, catching just 86 passes for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns, by far his worst totals (aside from the touchdowns) in 5 years with the Patriots. It’s fair to think Peterson won’t be 100% either, even if he can make it back for week 1. The Vikings clearly agree as they plan to use Toby Gerhart extensively early in the season until Peterson can get his legs back under him and may even make Gerhart the early season starter.

They would be smart to do so because they probably won’t contend either way. They don’t want Peterson to suffer any further injury that could threaten his availability in 2013 and beyond. Gerhart is fully capable of being the starter. He’s clearly not Peterson, but the 2010 2^nd round pick has rushed for 853 yards and 2 touchdowns on 190 carries (4.5 YPC) in 2 seasons. At the very least, he should split carries with Peterson early in the season. Peterson could have his worst season as a pro in 2012 (though that wouldn’t be saying much).

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The biggest upgrade the Vikings got this offseason was on the offensive line and it was much needed. The Vikings surrendered 49 sacks last year, tied for 5^th most in the NFL. Ponder was pressured on 34.5% of his throws, 12^th most in the NFL out of 36 eligible quarterbacks (25% of their team’s snaps). McNabb was even higher on that list, pressured on 41.1% of his throws, 2^nd highest in the league behind only Tim Tebow.

It’s important that they protect Ponder, especially in his early years. They don’t want him to turn into David Carr and besides, it’s not like he’s been the most durable quarterback in his collegiate and professional career. Ponder also struggled under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of just 50.8% under pressure (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes), 4^th worst in the league. That should improve in his 2^nd year in the league, but he needs a strong offensive line in front of him.

Left tackle is the most important position on the offensive line and the Vikings were terrible at that spot last year. Bryant McKinnie, once a solid left tackle, showed up at 380 pounds out of the lockout and was promptly cut. Lacking a true replacement for him, they had to sign Charlie Johnson, who was fresh off of struggling mightily at left tackle in Indianapolis, protecting Peyton Manning, argubly the easiest quarterbacks in the league to protect.

In 2010, he allowed 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures. Unsurprisingly, he struggled protecting the blindside of Christian Ponder, who does not have Peyton Manning’s freakish ability to get rid of the ball in time to avoid sacks. Last season, Johnson had a -12.6 rating on ProFootballFocus and allowed 8 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties.

Drafting Matt Kalil was absolutely the right move, though they were reportedly considering Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon at that spot. Ponder needs to be protected to succeed and they can’t accurately evaluate him without getting him better protected. And why use the 12^th overall pick on a player if you aren’t willing to do everything that is necessary to put yourself in a position to accurately evaluate him?

Kalil should be a solid left tackle from the word go in the NFL and Charlie Johnson will move to left guard. Johnson should be better off there than at left tackle. He’ll replace the departed Steve Hutchinson. Hutchinson was still an effective starter last year, but was cut because of his age and salary. Johnson will still be a downgrade.

The Vikings also let right guard Anthony Herrera go, but he won’t be nearly as missed. He was a poor starter who graded out with a -9.8 rating on ProFootballFocus last year. To replace him, the Vikings signed Geoff Schwartz. Schwartz missed all of last season with a hip injury, but he played very well in 2010 primarily at right guard, but also some at right tackle. He finished with a very impressive 12.3 rating. Still only heading into his age 26 season, he still has upside.

Schwartz will compete with Joe Berger for the right guard job. Berger made 7 starts last year, 1 at center, 4 at right guard, and 2 at left guard and graded out well with an 8.7 rating. He was a solid pass protector and a very good run blocker. Schwartz will likely win that starting job, leaving Berger as a utility offensive lineman on the interior again. Berger could push Charlie Johnson for the starting job at left guard if Johnson struggles at his new position. Berger played well enough last year to deserve a full time starting job in what’s now his age 30 season.

The Vikings may have not been a very good pass blocking team, but ProFootballFocus graded them out as the league’s top run blocking offensive line. The play of the departed Steve Hutchinson had something to do with that, but the play of either Schwartz or Berger will help make up for the loss, as will Johnson moving to a new position and Kalil coming in.

The play of center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt also had a lot to do with that. Sullivan was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked center both in terms of overall rating and run blocking. His overall rating was 22.5. He was also decent as a pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, while committing only 1 penalty. Loadholt, meanwhile, struggled as a pass protector, but was ProFootballFocus’ top rated run blocking offensive tackle. He did allow 9 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 10 penalties. Like the Vikings offensive line as a whole, he run blocked well and did not pass protect well. The addition of Matt Kalil, however, will help with the latter.

Grade: B-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Another area the Vikings needed to upgrade this offseason was their receiving corps. Last year, only Percy Harvin was a reliable receiver for them. The Vikings made this a priority as well, but did not do as much as they did on the offensive line. The Vikings did sign Jerome Simpson. Simpson played well with 50 catches for 725 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Bengals’ #2 receiver last year. He’ll start opposite Percy Harvin, but he’ll have to serve a 3 game suspension first for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Speaking of Harvin, he’s an incredibly talented player who could be due for a breakout year. In his last 11 games last year, he had 69 catches for 784 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 100 catches for 1140 yards and 9 touchdowns if extrapolated over 16 games. A healthy Christian Ponder behind an improved offensive line is clearly a very good thing for Harvin.

Harvin also figures to get more playing time. He made a stink about his playing time last month and rightfully so as the 623 snaps he played last year were 2^nd on the team behind the mediocre Devin Aromashodu and 57^th in the league at his position (and that’s not counting playoffs, which Harvin didn’t make). He’ll see more snaps this year after putting up a stink and he remains his team’s best receiver by far.

On 402 passing plays, Harvin was targeted 118 times, good for once every 3.41 passing plays, the best rate in the league. He caught 87 passes for 975 yards and 6 touchdowns on those 118 targets. If he sees the field as much as he deserves to this season, he could have a huge year. 100+ catches for 1200+ yards is not an outrageous prediction for him. He also rushed for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns on 52 attempts last year, an added bonus with him.

Fantasy football players should take note that he was the 8^th rated fantasy receiver last year and that he’s currently going off the board 19^th among wide receiver. I think 8^th is his floor this year with a now 2^nd year quarterback behind a better offensive line and as he gets more playing time. I have him as a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver heading into the season.

But enough about Harvin and on to the rest of the Vikings receivers. Mediocre veterans Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu will compete to start in Simpson’s absence, as will 2011 7^th round pick Stephen Burton, who the organization is high on. They also have a pair of 4^th round receivers from Arkansas, Greg Childs, and Jarius Wright. Neither of those guys are going to be cut, obviously. Harvin won’t be cut and neither will Jerome Simpson.

That leaves Aromashodu, Jenkins, and Burton to not only compete for a temporary starting job, but also for either 1 or 2 roster spots (probably two, at least to start the season). Jenkins and Aromashodu are squarely on the roster bubble, especially if the younger, cheaper Burton continues to upstage them in practice. Whoever starts in Simpson’s absence will play outside in 3-wide receiver sets when he returns, as Percy Harvin will move into the slot. Whoever is the runner up in that competition will serve that role in Simpson’s absence, or, on the off chance that he’s not the on the roster, that will leave Greg Childs to be the #3 receiver early in the year.

At tight end, the Vikings have a 2^nd year tight end in Kyle Rudolph waiting to break out. Rudolph saw significantly fewer snaps than veteran starter Visanthe Shiancoe last season, but played much better than him. The 2011 2^nd round pick could have a great year. He blocks well and pass catches well. The Vikings needed a #2 tight end behind him with Shiancoe leaving, but rather than resigning Shiancoe for cheap or another tight end for cheap, the Vikings spent 25 million dollars over 5 years on John Carlson.

That might have been the most head scratching move any team made this offseason. Not only did the Vikings not need a 5 million dollar per year #2 tight end, but Carlson missed all of last season with injury and was not even worth 5 million per year before his injury. Carlson caught just 31 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown in 2010 and it’s not like he’s a good blocker or anything. There’s a reason the Seahawks signed Zach Miller to start instead of him last offseason, even before he got hurt. The Vikings plan to use a lot of two-tight end sets to combat their lack of proven depth at receiver, but Carlson will not be worth his salary.

Ponder should be a decent starting quarterback this year in his first full season as a starter. He has a better supporting cast than last year, thanks to some additions on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. Adrian Peterson is not 100%, but he should still be able to form a solid tandem with Toby Gerhart and they run behind an excellent run blocking offense. They could actually have a decent offense. They ranked 19^th in scoring last year and 16^th with Ponder under center. They could creep up into the top-15.

Grade: C+

Defense

However, defense is the problem area. They ranked 31^st in the league in opponent’s scoring, allowing 28.1 points per game. They ranked 30^th against the pass with 8.1 YPA, despite a league leading 50 sacks (tied with Philadelphia). Their once proud defense is less than a shadow of its former self and unless that changes or the offense somehow becomes elite, I can’t see this team being relevant in 2012.

Defensive Line

I mentioned the Vikings’ 50 sacks last year. That was the result of strong defensive line play. I can’t imagine how bad their pass defense would have been without it. Their strong defensive line play contributed to their 6^th ranked run defense, though unfortunately this is a passing league so that’s not as important.

The main reason they ranked 1^st in the league in sacks was the 24 sacks that Jared Allen had, one shy of an NFL record. Allen had 24 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 594 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush rate of 11.1%. That’s certainly not bad, but that’s not nearly as good as the 24 sacks would suggest. In fact, that number suggests that Allen got pretty lucky to get the 24 sacks he had, as you can imagine anyone would have to be to get that high of a sacks total.

Allen has been the one of the league’s best pass rushers since his rookie year in 2004, with 105 sacks in 8 years and even he’d never exceeded 15.5 sacks before last season. He also was only ProFootballFocus’ 8^th rated defensive end as a pass rusher last year, thanks to his 8^th ranked pass rush efficiency rating (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(pressures)/pass rush snaps). That number of 24 doesn’t seem replicable at all. He’ll have a great year, don’t get me wrong. But he could have 10 fewer sacks than he did last year and still have a great year. It would, however, be a big hit to the Vikings’ sacks total.

Allen also plays the run well and ranked 5^th at his position on ProFootballFocus with a 35.1 rating. He was also one of just 4 players at his position to grade out with a rating above 10 as a pass rusher and run stuffer (Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs, Jason Pierre Paul). He also led his position in regular season snaps played with 1044, 70 more than the next closest player. In fact, even counting playoffs, only Jason Pierre Paul, who went to the Super Bowl, played more snaps than him. He doesn’t take plays off and he plays incredibly well.

Opposite him, Brian Robison also played well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 20^th ranked 4-3 defensive end with a rating of 13.0, on the strength of 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 533 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.1%. The 1^st year starter was undoubtedly helped by having Jared Allen opposite him, just like the guy who he replaced, Ray Edwards, was. Edwards sucked as a pass rusher in his first season away from Minnesota.

On the inside of their defensive line, the Vikings have yet another stud, defensive tackle Kevin Williams. Williams is also helped by Jared Allen’s presence, but he’s played at a Pro Bowl caliber level before and after Allen, ever since the Vikings took him 9^th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. He played equally well as a run stuffer and a pass protector last year and had a 17.8 rating overall, good for 8^th at his position. He’s heading into his age 32 season, but is showing no signs of slowing down.

The black sheep of the Vikings’ strong defensive line is Letroy Guion. Guion is a decent run stuffer, but offers very little pass rush and graded out negatively on ProFootballFocus. He rotates with Fred Evans and Remi Ayodele, similar players, at the position. Ayodele is not back with the team in 2012 after signing with the Saints.

The Vikings are hoping Christian Ballard, a 2011 4^th round pick who is moving from end back to his collegiate position of tackle, can break out and not only play well in some snaps as a situational pass rusher, but maybe even emerge as a starter. He’s a talented player who could have gone in the 2^nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft had it not been for a positive marijuana test at The Combine. As Ballard moves from end to tackle, Everson Griffen, a solid situational player, will see more snaps at end as a backup. He can also play some linebacker.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Speaking of linebacker, the Vikings have a trio that run stuff well, but do not cover well. Chad Greenway is the leader of the bunch. The highly paid linebacker ranked 9^th among 4-3 outside linebackers against the run, but graded out negatively overall because he ranked dead last at his position in coverage. He allowed 67 completions on 86 attempts (77.9%) for 717 yards (8.3 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed of 120.8, worst out of 29 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers (50% of their team’s snaps).

Departed middle linebacker EJ Henderson was a very similar player. He ranked 3^rd among middle linebackers against the run, but dead last in coverage. He allowed 38 completions on 46 attempts (82.6%) for 372 yards (8.1 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed of 114.9, 5^th at his position among eligible players (60% of their team’s snaps). The aged linebacker is gone, but Jasper Brinkley, his replacement, is a very similar player. The only difference is that the 2009 5^th round pick is incredibly inexperienced, playing just 264 career snaps. He also missed all of last year with groin and hip problems.

The 3^rd linebacker is EJ Henderson’s younger brother Erin Henderson. Erin was only a two down run stuffing linebacker last year and came off the field in sub packages when they used only two linebackers, but he ironically had the best coverage rating of the bunch, though that’s not saying much and he was not asked to cover much. Henderson, however, did an amazing job against the run. Despite limited playing time, he ranked 4^th at his position with a 21.8 rating, including 3^rd against the run. He’ll be counted on in more of a 3 down role this year as it’s expected to be Brinkley who leaves in field in sub packages. If he can break out as a true 3 down linebacker, it will be a big boost to the Vikings’ defense. He might just be a two down stuffer like everyone else though.

The fact that none of their linebackers can cover is incredibly bad because the Vikings run a cover 2 scheme which relies on their linebackers covering a lot. Their linebackers’ poor play in coverage last year was almost as much at fault for their 30^th ranked pass defense as their actual secondary was, though that secondary was not very good either.

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Secondary

I’ll get to the cornerbacks in a minute, but I’d like to start with the safeties. A cover 2 scheme like the Vikings run relies on not only good coverage linebackers, but also good coverage safeties. The Vikings didn’t have either of those last season. At free safety, Jamarca Sanford was absolutely awful, ranking 82th among 84 safeties with a -17.7 rating and dead last in coverage. He surrendered 20 completions on 31 attempts (64.5%) for 344 yards (11.1 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That was good for a 114.8 QB rating allowed, good for 4^th worst among eligible safeties (60% of their team’s snaps).

Sanford has been rightfully benched in favor of Harrison Smith, who the Vikings traded back up into the 1^st round to grab. He’s just a rookie so it’s tough to count on him for much, but he’ll be better than Sanford. At strong safety, Mistral Raymond and Husain Abdullah split time last year, but neither played well. Adbullah even had a worse QB rating allowed than Sanford (133.6). He’s gone, so 5^th round rookie RJ Blanton will compete with Raymond for the starting job. Blanton could sadly win that job, despite the fact that he is a 5^th round rookie.

At cornerback, things are a little better, but not much. Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook both return and will start. Both are solid players, but Winfield is heading into his age 35 season and has struggled with injuries of late. Cook, meanwhile, missed a lot of time last year with a team issued suspension for off the field issues. The 2010 2^nd round pick played alright last year and definitely has upside, but he’s still unproven, having played just 498 snaps in his 2 year career. 3^rd round rookie Josh Robinson is expected to be the nickel cornerback as Cedric Griffin, who actually did a decent job, is gone. That’s 3 rookies who could play significant roles in the secondary for the Vikings.

With 3 rookies possibly playing a significant role in the secondary, and minimal talent elsewhere, unless Winfield, coming off a broken collarbone, somehow plays 16 games at an elite level at age 35, the Vikings will struggle to stop the pass next season. It doesn’t help that none of their linebackers can cover either, something that’s a requirement in their scheme. They’ll rush the passer pretty well (though they won’t have 50 sacks again unless Jared Allen goes for 24 again) and they stop the run well, but if they can’t stop anyone through the air, in spite of a great pass rush, this will once again be one of the worst defenses in the league. They allowed a brutal 34 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in the air last year and allowed a QB rating of 107.6. For reference, only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees recorded QB ratings higher than that last year.

Grade: C

Head Coach

Leslie Frazier got the interim coach tag removed after finishing 3-3 with a previously 3-7 team in 2011. However, he responded with just a 3-13 season in his first year as Head Coach. It’s possible his strong finish to the 2010 season was just a fluke and/or the result of the team firing Brad Childress, who the players weren’t responding to any more, rather than anything Frazier did. He’s still inexperienced, but another bad year in 2012 could lead to his name coming up in the annual “coaches who could get fired” rumblings on sports talk shows and websites around the country. A decent year in 2012 should buy him another year though, but if he can’t make the playoffs in 2013, he will probably be gone.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Vikings will be better than the 3 win team they were in 2011. Even their Pythagorean Expectation said they should have won 5.5 games last year, but a 2-10 record in games decided by 7 or fewer did them in. That stuff tends to even out so if they get in 12 games decided by 7 or fewer in 2012, it’s reasonable to expect them to go 6-6, which would put them at 6 wins overall, right around their Pythagorean Expectation from last year. They’re also a little bit more talented as they get guys back in the secondary and they add talent on offense at wide receiver and on the offensive line.

However, unless Christian Ponder breaks out and establishes himself as a top-12 quarterback, this team doesn’t have a chance to be a playoff team this year. They’re not going to have Adrian Peterson at full strength. Their receiving corps is still on the thin side and their offensive line is just average. Meanwhile, their defense can’t stop anyone. They couldn’t last year, despite recovering 15 fumbles, tied for most in the league. That type of thing is as much luck as it is skill and may even be more luck than skill. On top of all this, they have a brutal schedule. A breakout year from Christian Ponder would definitely help, but I don’t see one coming.

Speaking of that schedule, they went 0-6 in the division last year. Given that they might have the toughest divisional competition in the league, that could happen again. A 0-6 divisional record would leave them needing to go 6-4 outside of the division to even win 6 games. At best, they’ll win a game or two in the division.

Outside of the division, they host Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee, Arizona, and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville and Arizona are definitely winnable games and the other 3 aren’t hard. They could win 2 or 3 of these games. They also go to Indianapolis, Washington, Seattle, St. Louis, and Houston. Houston and Washington are tough teams, while Seattle is a tough place to play, and St. Louis and Indianapolis will both be improved this year. At best, I think this is a 6 win team.

Update: No real reason why I’m adding the extra win, but when I made updates elsewhere, I was left needing to assign an extra win somewhere and the Vikings were right on the 5/6 borderline.

Projection: 6-10 4^th in NFC North

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Detroit Lions 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 20, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Offense

It’s amazing that just a few years ago this team didn’t win a single game. They were completely devoid of talent and in just a few short years, Jim Schwartz and Martin Mayhew have reversed years of terrible decisions by the Matt Millen regime. In 2008 they didn’t win a game and in 2009 they won just 2. However, in 2010, they won 6, including their last 4 and last year they won 10 and made the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Can the Lions take the next step in 2012 and become a legitimate Super Bowl contender? Some would say yes, but doing so would require the team to improve its win total for the 4^th straight year, something that hasn’t happened in the NFL in over a decade. This team also finished the year just 5-7, including playoffs, after starting the year 5-0. Even in their 5-0 start, they needed two massive comebacks and they needed another one to beat Carolina later in the season. In fact, they needed 4 comebacks of 13+ points last year, an NFL record.

Defense was a major issue as they allowed 24.2 points per game, 23^rd in the league and worse that the much scrutinized defenses of the Packers and Patriots. The 29.6 points per game they scored on offense, 4^th in the league, helped bail them out, but they can’t keep counting on their offense to execute huge comebacks after the defense puts them in a hole early. They are also a very young and undisciplined team on and off the field, leading the league in penalties and personal fouls last season, while having 7 players arrested this offseason.

Quarterback

One thing that’s certainly not a problem for the Lions is their passing offense and that’s a very good thing in today’s NFL. Matt Stafford was the quietest of the three quarterbacks to surpass 5000 yards last year, but he did indeed do so, answering questions about his health and his ability that existed before the season. Heading into 2011, Stafford had missed 19 games in his first 2 NFL seasons and had completed just 54.5% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, and 19 touchdowns to 21 interceptions.

However, last year, he played all 16 games and completed 63.5% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA and 41 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. His passing stats are inflated some by the fact that his 663 passing attempts led the NFL, but he’s still clearly a franchise quarterback. The one thing Stafford will have to avoid in 2012 is injuries. I know he made it through last season unscathed, but he does have an injury history and while backup Shaun Hill is a decent quarterback, their passing offense is too important to their team for them to lose Stafford for an extended period of time.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Matt Stafford certainly has no shortage of weapons to throw to. While Stafford answered questions about his health and ability in 2011, Calvin Johnson answered a different question: what happens when he has a health and able quarterback under center? Johnson’s answer: 96 catches for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. He simply has no holes in his game. He’s the type of wide receiver you create in Madden when you want to cheat. Speaking of Madden, Johnson is on the cover this year, which normally spells doom. However, I wouldn’t be too worried.

Megatron isn’t their only receiver, but he certainly makes life a lot easier for the other receivers. 2011 2^nd round rookie Titus Young will compete for the #2 receiver job with Nate Burleson. Young is fully expected to win that job over Burleson. Young is an athletic receiver waiting to break out, while Burleson is just a marginal player at this stage in his career.

Titus Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns as a mere rookie last year, despite 84 targets. Burleson caught 73 passes for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns on 110 targets. If Young had Burleson’s 110 targets last year, he would have caught 63 passes for 795 yards and 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his numbers.

Heading into his 2^nd season in the league, he could surpass even those numbers and maybe even approach 1000 yards. Burleson, meanwhile, will be a solid slot receiver even in his age 31 season. It’s not impossible that Burleson will be pushed for even that job by 2012 2^nd round pick Ryan Broyles later in the season, once Broyles is fully healthy again. Burleson likely won’t be with the team in 2013 and the Lions will go into 2013 with 3 young and very talented wide receivers and be able to air it out with the best of them.

Stafford also has two tight ends to throw to. Brandon Pettigrew caught 83 passes for 777 yards and 5 touchdowns last year and Tony Scheffler caught 26 passes for 347 yards and 6 touchdowns as the “move tight end.” Stafford has plenty of options in the receiving game and the Lions pass more than any team in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

One of the reasons that the Lions led the league by passing on 65.2% of their offensive snaps (not counting sacks) last year was simply that they couldn’t run. Injuries took their toll at the running back position and the Lions basically didn’t even try to establish a successful running game. Jahvid Best led the way with 84 carries and 4 different players had between 58 and 84 carries.

The Lions received their 1^st blow in the offseason when 2011 2^nd round pick Mikel Leshoure tore his Achilles, leaving him out for the season. Concussions ended Jahvid Best’s season 6 games into it, after he began to look like a true feature back early in the season, rushing for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns on 84 carries, while catching 27 passes for 287 yards and another score. Kevin Smith took over from there, but even he struggled with injuries and the Lions were left giving key carries to Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams down the stretch.

It’s no coincidence the Lions were 5-1 when Best was looking like a feature back, but can they run well enough this season to have that kind of well rounded offense all year? The Lions either think so or don’t care because they didn’t draft a running back. Mikel Leshoure will miss the first 2 games of the season with a suspension, but he’ll be the lead back when he returns. Best will be utilized in a Darren Sproles type role, in order to keep him healthy and best utilize his speed and pass catching abilities. Smith will provide extra depth. If Leshoure, who doesn’t have an injury history prior to last year, can be a true feature back and Best can stay healthy, the Lions’ offense could be even better in 2012, but those are big ifs.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

Of course, if Matt Stafford is injured, the Lions have no chance of improving their offense in 2012. I’ve mentioned Stafford’s injury history in the past. The offensive line will have an important job keeping him from hitting the turf. They did their job in 2011. Though they permitted 36 sacks, they did so even though they led the league in passing attempts. ProFootballFocus ranked them 4^th in pass blocking efficiency, while Stafford was only pressured on 24.2% of his throws, less than every eligible quarterback (50% of their team’s snaps) other than two (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Hasselbeck). They were pretty bad as run blockers, however, another reason that I don’t expect the Lions to have a good running game in 2012.

Jeff Backus is still their left tackle. He allowed 7 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures last year, which sounds bad, but think about how often they passed. He wasn’t a bad run blocker either and he graded out very middle of the pack with a -2.1 rating on ProFootballFocus. However, he’s heading into his age 35 season so I don’t know how much longer he can do this.

With that in mind, the Lions used the 23^rd overall pick on Riley Reiff. Reiff will play the right side in 2012 and compete with Gosder Cherilus there. However, Cherilus is a free agent this offseason and Backus might not be brought back in 2013 at age 36 at a salary of 2.75 million, so Reiff will get plenty of opportunity in 2013 and beyond. In 2012, he could beat out Cherilus. Cherilus allowed 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, which actually isn’t too bad considering how much they passed. However, he’s below average as a run blocker. It’ll be an interesting battle to watch in camp.

On the interior, both guards Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman graded out above average with ratings of 6.5 and 3.0 respectively. Neither run blocked well, but they ranked 7^th and 14^th respectively at their position as pass protectors. Sims allowed 1 sack, 9 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while Peterson allowed 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures.

Sandwiched between them is Dominic Raiola, another solid pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 10 quarterback pressures. However, he ranked 31^st at his position out of 35 as a run blocker. Like Backus, he’s no spring chicken as he heads into his age 34 season. The one issue for the Lions upfront is depth. Reiff can step in at either tackle position and they probably wouldn’t miss a beat, but all 5 starters missed a combined 2 starts last year and aside from the 5 starters, their backups got to play just 173 snaps. If a player or two gets hurt, it could have a noticeable effect on the Lions’ line.

However, if everyone stays healthy again, there’s no reason why the Lions can’t continue to protect Matt Stafford well. It would help if they could run a little bit more and throw a little bit less, but their offensive line doesn’t run block well and they have a bunch of unproven and/or injury prone players at running back. Stafford has plenty of receivers to throw to so the Lions should have a top-5 offense again, but I don’t think they’re quite on the level that Green Bay or New England is or New Orleans was last year (a lot of unknowns with that team this year).

Grade: B

Defense

But offense was not the problem with this team last year. Their defense is the reason why they had to mount 4 comebacks from down 13 or more to win. Until they get things fixed on that side of the ball, they won’t be serious Super Bowl contenders. They ranked 23^rd in the league in scoring defense last year, worse than even Green Bay or New England.

Defensive Line

One thing the Lions have going for them is a great pass rush. They ranked 10^th in the league in sacks with 41 last year, after 44 the year before. They have a lot of depth on the defensive line and rotate guys often. Ndamukong Suh is the biggest name and one of their leaders in snaps played in 2011 with 839. He did that despite missing 2 games with suspension after stomping on a Packers offensive lineman.

Suh will have to control himself. He was also penalized 8 times, on top of that 2 game suspension. In 2010, he had 10 penalties. Another thing he’ll have to work on is his play against the run. That’s an issue for the Lions’ defensive line as a whole as they ranked 24^th against the run with 4.5 YPC. He is a good pass rusher, however, with 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 520 pass rush snaps, for a solid 7.3% rate.

Suh will start opposite Nick Fairley, the 13^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Fairley didn’t play much in 2011 thanks to injuries, but he had a 7.4 rate on 274 snaps last year on ProFootballFocus. The upside is definitely there. The issue is he’ll likely begin the season with a 2-3 game suspension thanks to his offseason antics.

Corey Williams will start in his absence as he did last year. Williams was pretty mediocre as a starter last year. He’s a solid run stuffer, but committed 8 penalties and didn’t contribute much as a pass rusher. On 451 pass rush snaps, he had 3 sacks, 3 quarterback pressures, and 19 quarterback hits, good for a rate of 5.5%. Sammie Lee Hill is a similar player. Once Fairley is back, Williams and Hill will be rotational players behind two talented starters, which is better for the Lions’ defensive line.

Outside at end, the Lions also will rotate 4 players, Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Lawrence Jackson, and Willie Young. Avril and Vanden Bosch played the bulk of the snaps last year. Avril will continue to do that again this year. Avril has yet to sign his franchise tender and is planning to skip at least the early part of Training Camp. He won’t miss any games, but he could struggle some if he fails to stay in shape on his own, like Chris Johnson and Darrelle Revis in the last 2 years. At his best, Avril is a great pass rusher and a poor run stuffer. Last year he had 12 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures last year, good for a sack/pressure/hit on 11.5% of all pass rush snaps. He was penalized 12 times.

Vanden Bosch, meanwhile, should see fewer snaps this season. There are a few reasons for that. The main one is that he struggled last year. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst graded 4-3 defensive end with a -10.5 rating. The second reason is his age, as he heads into his age 34. The third reason is how well backups Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson played last year. On 410 combined pass rush snaps, they had 8 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures, good for a 12.2% pass rush rate. They also held up against the run and had a 12.4 rating and an 11.6 rating respectively. It’s always risky to give guys more playing time, because they might not play as well, but the Lions have to give it a try.

Vanden Bosch had 8 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 495 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 8.7%. He struggled against the run as well. Only 2 players at his position did worse in that area. The Lions have a talented pass rushing defensive line, but they don’t stop the run well and they’re often penalized. They should be better this year, however, with Fairley, Jackson, and Young getting more playing time.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Lions also have a solid bunch at linebacker. Stephen Tulloch is one of the league’s best middle linebackers with a 17.8 rating, good for 9^th in the league. He’s equally good in coverage and against the run. They resigned him long term this offseason, but he has been dealing with leg problems this offseason, so that’s something to monitor in Training Camp and the Preseason.

On the outside, they have Justin Durant and DeAndre Levy. Durant is an alright two down run stuffer who comes off the field on passing downs and 2-linebacker sets. He struggles in coverage, but stops the run well enough to grade out above average with a 3.3 rating. Levy, meanwhile, stays on the field most of the time, but struggled last year. He was better in 2010 as a middle linebacker, but his -8.1 rating was 34^th out of 42 4-3 outside linebackers last year after the position change. He’s a free agent after the season and should leave to go somewhere where he can play the middle.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The secondary is the Lions’ worst group on their roster and the biggest reason why they struggled to stop anyone last year. Their pass rush can make them look alright, but if the Lions are serious about winning the Super Bowl, they’ll have to do better than Chris Houston and Aaron Berry at cornerback. With that in mind, they used a 3^rd and a 5^th round pick on the position, taking Dwight Bentley and Chris Greenwood, but they won’t have any impact until 2013, if ever.

Chris Houston is a good player, who allowed 46 completions on 87 attempts (52.9%) for 593 yards (6.8 YPA), 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties. However, Aaron Berry has never been a starter in the NFL. He played alright on the slot last year, but he’s definitely unproven. Meanwhile, Jacob Lacey will play on the slot, unless he can beat out Berry for the starting job, which is unlikely. Lacey struggled as a starter for the Colts last year.

At safety, Louis Delmas is solid in coverage, but really struggled against the run last year, ranking 3^rd worst at his position against the run. His overall -8.5 rating ranked him 66^th out of 84 players. Next to him, Amari Spievey is even worse, with a -16.1 rating, good for 81th at his position. He struggled both in coverage and against the run.

The Lions ranked 23th in scoring defense last year with 24.2 points per game allowed. In 2010, they ranked 19^th with 23.1 points per game allowed. They don’t have a lot of talent in the secondary and they can’t stop the run. They rush the passer well, which helps their pass defense look better than they are, but this isn’t a very good defense. I don’t expect them to be much better this season. Nick Fairley, Lawrence Jackson, and Willie Young will play more, which should help, but this team suffered very few injuries last year, so that could hurt them in 2012. They also didn’t use a draft pick on defense until the 3^rd round and none of their rookies will have much impact in 2012, based on where they are located on the depth chart right now.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Jim Schwartz deserves some blame for the Lions’ immaturity on and off the field, but he also deserves a ton of credit for the Lions’ turn around. He took over a winless team in 2009 and has won 18 games in the last 3 years and got them to the playoffs with a record of 10-6 last year. He’s definitely a solid coach, but if the Lions struggle this year, his job could be on the line because of how often the Lions are penalized and how much they struggle with discipline off the field.

Grade: B

Overall

The Lions have improved their win total in each of the last 3 years. I don’t expect them to do so this year because they would mean they’d have done it in each of the last 4 years, which hasn’t happened with any team in at least a decade. To improve your win total that much, you need to have a lot of things go right.

So what will go wrong for the Lions this year? It could be a number of things. Maybe Matt Stafford will miss a few games with injuries. Maybe their penalties will do them in. Maybe their defense won’t improve and they won’t be able to come back from 13 point deficits 4 times. Maybe all of their offseason distractions will be too much for them. Maybe they will continue the play that caused them to go 5-7 after a 5-0 start last year, including playoffs. Maybe a tougher schedule will do them in (they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record in 2011, going 0-6 in those games, including playoffs). Maybe the Madden Curse will strike down Calvin Johnson (only half kidding).

Speaking of that schedule, they have to face Chicago and Green Bay 4 times, obviously. I think both of those teams are better than them, so while they could sweep Minnesota, I have them going 3-3 in the division at best (last year, they were 3-3). Outside of the division, they host St. Louis, Seattle, Houston, Indianapolis, and Atlanta. St. Louis, Seattle, and Indianapolis are all winnable games, but Houston and Atlanta will be tougher, especially after the latter beat them at home last year. They also have trips to San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Arizona.

They play 6 teams who had winning records in 2011 and 8 teams I project to have winning records in 2012. They didn’t beat a single team with a winning record last year and their only win against a playoff team came against the 8-8 Broncos. I could definitely see them winning 7 or 8 games, given all of the things that could go wrong.

Projection: 7-9 3^rd in NFC North

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Chicago Bears 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 20, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Offense

The Bears were off to a 7-3 start last year, one year after going 11-5 and making it to the NFC Championship game. In my opinion, the Bears’ 7-3 start last year was more impressive. Their 11-5 2010 record was not fully indicative of how they played. They had a Pythagorean Expectation of just 9.4 wins and that was in spite of the fact that their 11 wins were against a 6-10 Detroit team when Calvin Johnson’s game winning touchdown was overturned, against the 6-10 Cowboys, against the Packers when the Packers committed 19 penalties, against the 2-14 Panthers, against a then winless Bills team in a game where both teams scored 3 touchdowns and no field goals, twice against the 6-10 Vikings, against the Dolphins and their 3^rd string quarterback, against the Asante Samuel-less Eagles, against the 6-10 Lions again, and against the Jets. In the playoffs, they beat the sub .500 Seahawks. They only beat 3 .500+ teams and all 3 of those games were at home.

Last year, however, they averaged 26.8 points per game in their first 10 and allowed just 20.7 per. Over 16 games, that’s 429 points for and 331 points against, good for a Pythagorean Expectation of 10.4 wins, which would have been 9^th in the NFL. However, then they lost Jay Cutler for the season and Matt Forte went down for the season the following week. They went 1-5 the rest of the way to finish 8-8 and were starting their 3^rd string quarterback and 3^rd quarterback running back late in the season.

However, the Bears definitely have hope going in the 2012 season. Cutler and Forte are both back, with the later now signed long term. Brandon Marshall was brought in, giving Jay Cutler the first legitimate receiving option he’s had since being traded to Chicago from Denver. Cutler and Marshall combined for 206 catches for 2590 yards and 13 touchdowns from 2007-2008 in Denver and the Broncos even brought in Cutler’s former quarterback coach, Jeremy Bates, who Cutler worked with in Denver. Mike Martz is gone, a good thing because the Bears never had the offensive line talent to make his scheme work. The Bears’ offense could have a strong year this year to compliment a defense that allowed just 21.3 points per game last year (14^th).

Quarterbacks

The biggest difference between the 2010 Bears and the 2011 Bears was Jay Cutler. A brief glance at Cutler’s stats wouldn’t show anything special, as he completed 58.0% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, and 13 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. However, he was very efficient and made the most of a terrible offensive line. Despite being pressured on 38.6% of passing plays, 6^th most among eligible quarterbacks (25% of their team’s snaps), Cutler was only sacked on 17.3% of his pressured snaps, good for 14^th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks. Meanwhile, his 66.0% accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) under pressure was 4^th.

He did all of this despite a terrible receiving corps led in catches and snaps played by Roy Williams, who, as of this writing, is still without a job. He did it behind a terrible offensive line that allowed 49 sacks and managed to take just 23 sacks in 10 games, while the other quarterbacks took 26 sacks in 6 games. He also did it in a system under Mike Martz that this team just did not have the offensive line talent for. With an improved receiving corps and Martz gone, Cutler could have his best season in Chicago this year. And if Cutler were to get injured again this year, they wouldn’t be nearly as screwed as new backup Jason Campbell is a veteran, proven starter and one of the league’s best backups.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Of course, Cutler did have a lot of help from Matt Forte, who was on pace for his best season as a starter before getting hurt. Through 8 games, Matt Forte had 1241 yards from scrimmage, on pace for 2482 yards, which would have been the 2^nd highest total in NFL history behind Chris Johnson’s 2009 season. He finished last year with 997 yards and 3 touchdowns on 203 carries (4.9 YPC) with 52 catches for 490 yards. He was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked running back last year, despite getting hurt, and broke the 5^th most tackles in the NFL, breaking 39.

The 4 ½ games he missed last season with a knee injury were the first games he’s missed in his career, even though the Bears reportedly were hesitant to give him a long term deal because of his “injury history,” before eventually caving in and paying him. He’s still only heading into his age 27 season with 1014 career carries and coming off a career season in terms of YPC and catches per game so he should have another strong season in 2012.

The Bears signed Michael Bush this offseason and, while there was a lot of controversy being made about his signing since he was the starter in Oakland last year in place of an injured Darren McFadden, he was only signed to be a pure backup and insurance in case Forte didn’t sign and held out. He’s a talented backup though and will be good for the Bears around the goal line.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Cutler’s receiving corps didn’t give him a lot of help last year, but that will be different this year. Roy Williams led the team in snaps played and catches (with 37) and he is still unemployed as of this writing. The Bears brought in Brandon Marshall from Miami. Marshall is a legitimate #1 receiver, who has caught at least 80 passes and had over 1000 receiving yards in each of the last 5 seasons, including the last two in Miami with poor quarterback play. He had his best two seasons in from 2007-2008 with Jay Cutler, catching 206 passes for 2590 yards and 13 touchdowns combined. Cutler also had his best two years in that time, completing 681 of 1083 (62.9%) for 8023 yards (7.4 YPA), 45 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions.

Marshall wasn’t the only addition to the Bears’ receiving corps as the Bears used a 2^nd round pick on Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery will compete with Earl Bennett and Devin Hester for positioning on the depth chart. Bennett struggled last year thanks to injuries, but he caught 100 passes for 1278 yards and 5 touchdowns from 2009-2010. He’s a solid slot receiver.

Hester, meanwhile, should start the year as the 4^th receiver. There have been reports that Hester will be the starter this year, but other reports have said he’ll be a depth receiver only. I lean with the latter because the Bears have unsuccessfully been trying to convert him into a starting receiver for years, before eventually realizing he’s more valuable to them if he focuses solely on being a return man. That would leave Jeffery to start opposite Brandon Marshall.

At tight end, the Bears have Kellen Davis and 4^th round rookie Evan Rodriguez. Davis only caught 18 passes for 206 yards and 5 touchdowns last year in his first year as a starter, but tight ends never produce in Mike Martz’ offense. He does have upside and, at the very least, he’s a good blocker and end zone threat at 6-7 267. Rodriguez, meanwhile, is a 4^th round rookie who will compliment him well as a “move” tight end.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

Cutler’s offensive line is another group that didn’t help him out. He was pressured on 38.6% of his passes, 6^th most in the NFL, and though he only took 23 sacks in 10 games, his backups were sacked 26 times in 6 games. The offensive line is not a talented bunch, but Mike Martz’ scheme always made them look worse than they were by putting too much pressure on them to block for an extended period of time.

Left tackle J’Marcus Webb was the worst offender again. A 2010 7^th round pick, offensive line coach Mike Tice loves him, but he hasn’t played well. Last year, he surrendered 12 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures, while committing 14 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. With a -26.2 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 62^nd ranked offensive tackle out of 73. He’ll have competition for the starting job from Chris Williams, who played left guard last year. Williams was originally drafted in the 1^st round in 2008 to be the left tackle, but he’s played everywhere on the line except center since being drafted and has struggled to find a home. He might be the better option, if only by default.

If Williams does not win the left tackle job, he could move back to guard where, relative to the rest of the offensive line, he actually played alright last year. In 9 games before a season ending wrist injury, he graded out with a -9.7 rating, best among the 5 offensive linemen who played the most snaps for the Bears last year. Allowing 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures, he was better as a pass protector than a run blocker. He deserves a starting job somewhere on this line in 2012.

Also competing for the two guard spots are Lance Louis, Chris Spencer, Edwin Williams, and Chilo Rachal. The Bears have a lot of guys competing for spots up front in order to make sure they’re starting the best 5 and I think it’s for the best that they’re doing that. Louis and Spencer really struggled last year as starters, with a -35.6 rating and a -12.4 rating respectively. Louis spent most of last year as the right tackle in place of an injured Gabe Carimi, while Spencer was the starting right guard. Louis ranked 70^th out of 73 tackles, while Spencer ranked 55^th out of 76 guards.

Edwin Williams, meanwhile, was their best offensive lineman with a 0.5 rating last year, playing primarily at left guard in place of an injured Chris Williams. He has versatility and can play at both guard and center. He deserves a starting job, but might not end up getting one. Rachal, meanwhile, was once a 2^nd round pick and a solid starter in San Francisco, but weight issues cost him his job.

He spent this offseason getting back into shape and could be a steal for the Bears at guard this season. He’s now down to 310 pounds, after once weighing 340. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked guard in 2010 and he’s only heading into his age 26 season. Rachal and Edwin Williams deserve to start at guard, with Chris Williams starting at left tackle, but it might not happen like that.

The only two starting spots set in stone are center and right tackle where Roberto Garza and Gabe Carimi respectively will start. Garza was awful last year in his first season at center, with a -19.7 rating, good for 2^nd worst among all centers. He was solid in pass protection with 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, while committing 3 penalties, but he was an awful run blocker. Carimi, meanwhile, barely played, playing 100 snaps thanks to injury, but he was a 1^st round pick in 2011 and played well when he did play. He should be their best offensive lineman in 2012.

The Bears’ offensive line won’t be as bad as it’s been in the last couple of years because Mike Martz is gone and because they will be holding a lot of open competition to make sure they have their 5 best linemen out there. Jay Cutler is a quarterback who has great pocket presence so he’ll be fine behind a mediocre line. Cutler will also having an improved receiving corps. With Cutler and Forte healthy, the Bears could be a top-10 offense. Believe it or not, the 26.7 points per game they scored in their first 10 games last year before Cutler went down would have ranked 5^th in the league last year over a whole season. That total also would have ranked 5^th in 2010.

Grade: C

Defense

The Bears have had a great defense for years. Last year, they weren’t quite up to their standards, ranking 14^th with 21.3 points per game allowed and the 20.7 points per game allowed in their first 10 games would have only ranked 11^th. However, they still have plenty of talent and ranked in the top-10 against both the pass and the run, ranking 7^th against the pass with 6.8 YPA allowed and 10^th against the pass with 4.0 YPC allowed. They could have a top-10 defense again in 2012, which would be a great compliment to a top-10 offense.

Defensive Line

One of the reasons their defense is so good is because of Julius Peppers. Peppers is one of the league’s most well rounded defensive ends, playing the run and rushing the passer equally well. With a 29.3 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive end last year and, though he’s heading into his age 32 season, he should be able to be an elite defensive end once again. With 12 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 53 quarterback pressures on 562 pass rush snaps, he had a 12.5% pass rush rate.

Opposite him, the veteran Israel Idonije will continue to start in base packages. Idonije had a solid year in 2010, but struggled last year and, heading into his age 32 season, he’s not getting any better. He’s solid against the run, but doesn’t offer much of a pass rush, with 5 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures on 594 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush rate of 7.6%. The Bears drafted Shea McClellin in the 1^st round of the 2012 NFL Draft. He’ll play immediately in sub packages and push Idonije inside on passing downs. That will help their pass rush. Opposite Peppers, the athletic McClellin should be able to get a good amount of pressure on the quarterback.

Idonije will play on passing downs inside with Henry Melton, another strong pass rusher. Melton is only average against the run, but managed 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 437 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 8.9%, very good for his position. With Amobi Okoye and Anthony Adams gone, Melton could see an increase in snaps in their defensive tackle rotation, but that would mean playing the run more.

The veteran Matt Toeaina, a decent run stuffer, will also be in that rotation and play primarily on running downs, as will Stephen Paea, a 2011 2^nd round pick who could be due for a breakout year. He’s also a strong run stuffer, but might be able to offer something as a pass rusher as well. He played alright in limited action last year.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Bears have their two mainstays, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. The long time duo is getting up there in age as they are entering their age 34 and 32 seasons respectively, but both continue to get it done and I expect that to continue in 2012. Both players never come off the field as they played 1116 and 1102 snaps respectively last year. No other Bears’ front 7 player played more than 944. They are well rounded players who stop the run and cover very well. Briggs ranked 14^th among 4-3 outside linebackers with a 8.1 rating and played more regular season snaps than any other player at his position. You can’t quite say the same thing about Urlacher, who ranked 4^th at his position in total snaps played in the regular season, but his 16.3 rating ranked 12^th at his position.

The 3^rd linebacker is Nick Roach, a solid 2 down run stuffer. That’s all they really need him to be because Urlacher and Briggs play every snap in 2-linebacker sets in sub packages because of their coverage abilities. Roach played just 534 snaps last year and their depth linebackers combined for just 4. They don’t need much from him.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

They’re not often talked about, but the Bears have one of the league’s top cornerback duos. #1 cornerback Charles Tillman allowed 67 completions on 115 attempts (58.3%) for 850 yards (7.4 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 4 penalties. Opposite him, Tim Jennings allowed 63 completions on 110 attempts (57.3%) for 700 yards (6.4 YPA), no touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 4 penalties. He was one of only two eligible cornerbacks (60% of their team’s snaps) to not allow a touchdown. He ranked 16^th at his position on ProFootballFocus, while Tillman ranked 12^th. They’re the backbone of a tough Bears pass defense.

The Bears also have no shortage of depth at cornerback, bringing in Kelvin Hayden and Jonathan Wilhite through free agency and drafting Isaiah Frey and Greg McCoy. Hayden, a natural fit for their scheme, will compete with Dre Moore, who did an alright job last year, for the #3 cornerback job. The other guys won’t be much of a factor unless injuries strike and they will have to cut a couple. Frey and McCoy have practice squad eligibility, so it’ll probably be them. Both were just late round picks.

At safety, Brandon Meriweather is gone, but he was benched midseason last year and pretty bad before being benched so he won’t be missed. The Bears drafted Brandon Hardin in the 3^rd round to take his place and now have a trio of 3^rd round picks from the 2010, 2011, and 2012 NFL drafts with Major Wright and Chris Conte as well. Wright and Conte are expected to be the starters, while Hardin will be the top reserve. Neither of those two starters have played all that well so far in their careers, so Hardin could provide competition for one or the other before the season is over. Meanwhile, Craig Steltz actually played the best of any of their safeties in ProFootballFocus’ eyes last year with a 4.9 rating, playing 419 snaps as primarily an injury replacement.

The Bears have some age defensively, but they still have plenty of talent. They have two of the best and most well rounded linebackers in the league, who fit their scheme perfectly and never come off the field. They have a talented cornerback duo and should exceed the 33 sacks they had last season. They could easily have a top-10 defense next season in terms of scoring, just like they were top-10 against the run and against the pass last year. If they have a top-10 offense as well, that will make them one of the most well rounded teams in the league and bring them back to being a contender in the NFC.

Coaching

Lovie Smith might not be the best coach in the NFL, but he’s one of the longest tenured, coaching since 2004 and he has a 71-57 record, 3 division titles, and a Super Bowl appearance. He has a great coaching staff and his teams always play defense well. As long as the team remains in playoff contention, he deserves to be the Head Coach for at least a few more years.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Bears are just a season removed from a NFC Championship appearance. They may have been lucky to get there, playing an easy schedule, exceeding their Pythagorean Expectation by more than a game, getting a 1^st round bye despite 11 wins, and facing sub .500 Seattle in the 1^st round. However, I think they played better last year than in 2010 before injuries derailed everything and they made positive changes to their offense this offseason, adding Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, while firing Mike Martz.

The Bears were part of the “5 down” last season, referring to the fact that 5 teams that previously made the playoffs miss the playoffs every season. Fortunately, the opposite is true and 39.6% of the “5 down” teams rebound to make the playoffs the following season, which is up from the 37.5% of all teams who make the playoffs every season. They have one of the most well balanced teams in the league and could rank in the top-10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Barring major injuries, they’ll be in contention in the NFC once more.

The Bears are not quite on the Packers’ level and the fact that they’ve lost to them in their last 4 matchups backs up that statement. However, they could steal one of those games this season. They should also at least split with the Lions and could sweep the Vikings for the 3^rd straight season. They could go 4-2 in the division and 3-3 seems like a worst case scenario.

Outside the division, they host Indianapolis, St. Louis, Carolina, Houston, and Seattle. With the exception of the Houston game, those are all very winnable games. I would be pretty surprised if they lost more than 1 of those games. They also go to Dallas, Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Francisco, and Arizona. That’s not a very tough slate either, especially since I think the 49ers are overrated. They have a tough in division schedule, but benefit from getting to play the AFC North and NFC West, while facing Dallas and Carolina in their other conference games. 11-5 or 12-4 definitely seems plausible.

Projection: 12-4 2^nd in NFC North

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Green Bay Packers 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 19, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Offense

Normally teams who win the Super Bowl have a bit of a hangover the following season. Apparently no one told the Packers who promptly ripped off 13 straight wins to start the 2011 season. Aaron Rodgers took the next step as a quarterback, winning his first MVP and setting the league’s single season record for QB rating with a 122.5 rating. Added to the 6 straight they won en route to the Super Bowl in 2010, the Packers were on a 19 game winning streak and looked primed to, at the very least, become the first reigning Super Bowl Champion to win a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots.

However, the Packers went into Kansas City week 15 and lost to the sub .500 Chiefs. The 5 point loss ended their bid for a perfect season and was their first regular season loss of more than 4 points since week 10 of 2009. A few weeks later, after a 1^st round bye, the Packers were upset at home by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants and failed to win a single playoff game.

Still, the Packers have a lot going for them. They return almost their entire core from last season’s 15-1 team, including Aaron Rodgers, who is still in the prime of his career, heading into his age 29 season. They spent three picks in the first 2 rounds on defensive players who I think can have an immediate impact for a defense which ranked 19^th in the league with 22.4 points per game allowed. And this time around, they won’t have the pressure of defending their Super Bowl title. In their last 23 games (including playoffs), they’re still a remarkable 21-2.

Quarterbacks

While the Packers’ record over the past 23 games is remarkable, Rodgers’ numbers over his last 27 might be even more remarkable. Rodgers has completed 606 of 886 (68.4%) for 7912 yards (8.9 YPA), 72 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 1136 yards and 12 touchdowns in 4 years. The only hole you can poke in him is how well his backup, Matt Flynn, played, but you can poke similar holes in Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Brady’s Patriots went 11-5 without him in 2008 and Brees didn’t become an elite quarterback until he came to New Orleans, got in their system, and started playing half of his games in a dome. Meanwhile, Eli Manning was not elite until last season.

Rodgers was the quarterback of the league’s top scoring offense (35.0), set a new QB rating record (122.5), and was the quarterback of the league’s best regular season team (and the team with the league’s highest winning percentage, including playoffs), despite the fact that his defense ranked just 19^th in the league in scoring defense.

Even in their playoff loss to the Giants (their first loss in the regular season or postseason by more than 6 points since week 10 of 2009), Rodgers played well, but was let down by 8 drops from his wide receivers. Rodgers completed 26 of 46 for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. If his receivers drop 1 or 2 balls rather than 8, that line looks very good and that’s a completely different ball game (his defense also gave up 37 points).

He was equally good at leading explosive drives downfield as he was at taking care of the ball, ranking first in YPA (9.3), 2^nd in touchdowns (45, one behind Drew Brees, who played 16 games to Rodgers’ 15), 1^st in interceptions (6), and 2^nd in completion percentage (68.3%). His career QB rating of 104.1 is a record for quarterbacks with as many career attempts as him, as is his 3.47 TD:INT ratio, and his career 8.2 YPA is tied for highest in the Super Bowl era. Meanwhile, his 65.4% completion percentage is 4^th all-time.

Even advanced statistics love him. No quarterback had a higher accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) than his 80.6% and no quarterback had a higher deep accuracy percentage (20+ yards) than Rodgers’ 60.7%. His adjusted QB rating of 108.77 (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 10 points higher than anyone else in the league. He was fully deserving of the league’s MVP last year and he is currently the best quarterback in the league. The only issue is if he gets hurt. Backup Graham Harrell is a former undrafted free agent who has never attempted a pass in the NFL. The Packers may trade for Colt McCoy, which would give them a young, experienced, and above average backup.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Packers have never been much of a running team, but it’s worth noting they don’t have a lot of proven guys at the position. The Packers let Ryan Grant go and have given James Starks the lead back job. Starks is a talented back, but he’s had injury problems dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo. He missed his entire senior season there, which is why he fell to the 6^th round of the 2010 NFL Draft. He also missed most of his rookie season with injuries and was on and off the injury report last year. He’s flashed talent in his career, but he’s still got only 162 career carries in 2 seasons.

Backup Alex Green only has 3 carries in his career. Green was a higher rated prospect than Starks and went in the 3^rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s definitely got talent, as evidenced by the 8.2 yards per carry he averaged in his final season at the University of Hawaii, but he missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL and only maxed out at 146 carries in a season dating back to his college days.

The 3^rd back is Brandon Saine. Saine has all the measurables and ran a 40 in the 4.4s at 6-0 220, but went undrafted in the 2011 NFL Draft because he had just 70 carries in his senior season at Ohio State and maxed out at just 146 carries. He carried the ball 18 times for 69 yards last year. Undrafted rookie running back Marc Tyler could also make the roster, but he has a history of injury problems and only maxed out at 171 carries in a season at USC. He also lost his starting job down the stretch last season and ran his 40 in the 4.7s at 5-11 219 so he lacks explosiveness. If things look bleak in Training Camp with the young guys, the Packers could call up Ryan Grant, who led the team in carries with 134 last year, or even Cedric Benson, both of whom are still free agents because of their age.

The good news for the Packers is that their passing game and offensive line are good enough for them to at least be a decent running team because their backs will often be facing spread out boxes and be supported by a strong offensive line. They’ll have plenty of holes to run in and all they need to do is be a solid compliment to their passing game. They ranked 26^th in the league with 395 carries last year, 27^th in total yards, and 26^th in yards per carry. And they managed 15 wins and 35.0 points per game. And, if one of their young backs breaks out, that’s even better. Ryan Grant was a former undrafted free agent and he did pretty well for a few years as the Packers’ lead back.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I’ve mentioned the offensive line already, the Packers have a solid bunch upfront that pass and run blocks equally well. Yes, they gave up 41 sacks last year (though Flynn took 5 of them), good for 11^th most in the league. However, Rodgers is actually a quarterback who takes a few more sacks than he needs to, at least last year, an Achilles heel in his game. Rodgers was 6^th worst among eligible quarterbacks last year, taking a sack on 22.6% of the plays in which he is pressured. Some of this has to do with how much Rodgers likes to run around in the pocket, as well with how much the Packers throw deep downfield.

Meanwhile, their offensive line graded out 10^th in pass blocking efficiency on ProFootballFocus and Rodgers was only 17^th among 24 eligible quarterbacks in terms of percentage of snaps he was pressured. The Packers offensive line only allowed him to be pressured on 27.4% of plays and Rodgers ranked 6^th in accuracy percentage under pressure with 63.2%. The Packers have above average starters in 4 of 5 spots on their offense line.

The one player who struggles is left tackle Marshall Newhouse. Newhouse was actually ProFootballFocus’ worst rated offensive tackle last season with a -41.8 rating. Including playoffs, he allowed 9 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties and struggling mightily as a run blocker.

Newhouse, a 2010 5^th round pick, was not supposed to be out there as he only stepped in because Chad Clifton got hurt and rookie Derek Sherrod wasn’t ready. Clifton has since been cut and may retire. 2011 1^st round pick Sherrod is supposed to be the long term starter, but he might not play at all this year with a broken leg. At the very least, he’ll start the year on the PUP. If he can come back healthy and Newhouse continues to struggle, he could challenge him for the job. More likely, Sherrod will get his chance in 2013.

The Packers also mulled moving right tackle Bryan Bulaga from the right side to the left side, but decided against it because Bulaga plays so well on the right side. This is a smart idea because Bulaga, a 2010 1^st round pick, ranked 5^th among offensive tackles with a 14.5 rating last year. He was equally good as a run blocker and pass protector and allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties.

The interior of the Packers’ offensive line is their real strong point. Right guard Josh Sitton broke out in 2010 and has been a top-5 guard on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 2 years, including a #1 ranking in 2010. Last year, he ranked 5^th with a 16.9 rating. He’s better as a pass protector than a run blocker, but above average in both areas. Last year, he surrendered 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, with 7 penalties.

Until last year, left guard was a weak spot, but TJ Ward broke out last year as Sitton had the year before, ranking 19^th at his position with a 4.3 rating. He struggled as a run blocker, but ranked 6^th at his position as a pass protector. He allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures. As long as he doesn’t regress, the Packers are fine at that position.

Between them, the Packers lost Scott Wells, which will hurt for continuity’s sake, but they should be able to replace the 4^th ranked center’s play on the field. The Packers signed a cheaper alternative in Jeff Saturday, ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked center with a 14.2 rating. Saturday has been an elite center for seemingly forever. Though he’s now 37, Saturday is showing no signs of slowing down and plays a position that players can play effectively into their mid and late 30s. An equally good run blocker, Saturday allowed 2 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 9 quarterback pressures with the Colts last year, while committing only 3 penalties. The Packers’ strong interior line will really help an unproven bunch at running back and the Packers’ offensive line on the whole will once again do an adequate job giving Rodgers time to do his thing.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Also helping out Rodgers is a strong receiving corps. They let him down with 8 drops in their playoff loss to the Giants, but they’ve been very good for him otherwise. There’s a reason Matt Flynn was able to play so well in Rodgers’ absence last year. Donald Driver is now 37 and buried on the depth chart, but the next generation could end up being just as good. Driver has 735 catches for 10060 yards and 59 touchdowns in 13 seasons, but Greg Jennings has 389 catches for 6171 yards and 49 touchdowns in 6 seasons.

Jennings only missed a 4^th straight 1000 yard year last year by 51 yards and would have almost definitely surpassed that had he not missed the final 3 games with injury, the first games with injury he’s missed since 2007 (coincidentally, the last time before last year that he didn’t have 1000 yards). In his absence, Jordy Nelson stepped up big time, catching 68 passes for 1263 yards and 15 touchdowns.

When throwing to Nelson last year, Rodgers averaged 13.6 YPA and threw 15 touchdowns to 1 interception. He also hit Nelson for 12.3 per catch on the fly, meaning before any yards after catch. Among players with 100 targets, only Vincent Jackson was hit deeper. His 22.1% touchdown rate is unsustainable even on this offense, as is an 18.6 YPC for a guy whose career average is 15.1 YPC, but Jennings’ 14.2 YPC last year was down from his career average of 15.9 YPC. Should both stay healthy, they could easily have 1000+ yards a piece.

Behind them on the depth chart, James Jones is penciled as the #3 receiver. He’s a reliable player who caught 38 passes for 635 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but he’ll face competition from the more explosive Randall Cobb in Training Camp. Cobb, a 2011 2^nd round pick, caught 25 passes for 375 yards and a score last year and is having a strong offseason. If Cobb outplays Jones in Training Camp, Jones, who is owed 2.5 million this year, could be traded. Driver, meanwhile, will be behind both of those guys on the depth chart, but he’s a locker room presence and totally fine with a limited role.

The X-factor is tight end Jermichael Finley. Finley has incredible talent and athleticism, but it’s always been one thing or another with him. In a 14 game stretch from 2009-2010, he caught 71 passes for 915 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he missed most of 2010 with injuries and last season he led all tight ends in drops with 12. Also, on a team that completed 68.1% of its passes last year, Finley caught just 60.4% of the passes targeted at him. For reference, Jordy Nelson caught 73.8% and Greg Jennings caught 69.8%. He’s also a poor blocker.

However, for as bad as all that sounds, Finley still finished last year with 55 catches for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns. The upside is still there and it’s possible injuries may have still been to blame for his play last year. But if they can get him going, it’ll be crazy. It’ll be just one more explosive weapon that Rodgers has to throw to and it’s not like he needs a whole lot. While they don’t have a lot of talent at running back, the Packers have so much talent where it matters that it seems possible they could lead the league in scoring again. At the very least, they’ll have a top-5 offense and average 30+ points per game, barring major injuries.

One thing that could be a bad sign for the Packers is that they had fewer than 20 turnovers last year. Turnovers are tough to predict on a yearly basis and very inconsistent. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. In fact, teams that have 20 or fewer turnovers average just 2 turnovers less per season the next season than do teams that averaged 35 or more turnovers in their next season.

However, if there’s any team I trust to repeat those numbers and break the trend, it’s Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Peyton Manning and the Colts are the one exception over the last 10 years, making the list 5 times. Rodgers is that good. Besides, 2.69 fewer wins would still mean 12 or 13 wins for the Packers. Not too shabby. Even if they don’t score 35 points per game again, they’ll still score plenty.

Grade: A

Defense

The offense is not going to be a problem for the Packers. The defense could be. They may have won 15 games last year, but they did rank 19^th in scoring defense. That’s not a sustainable model going forward and it’s very tough to count on the offense to score 35 points per game again, even with all of their talent. Only the 2007 New England Patriots have ever surpassed that number. They’ll have to play better defensively this year.

Another thing that is not sustainable is their takeaways and turnover margin. As they are offensively, turnovers are very inconsistent on a yearly basis and not always related to talent. The difference between average takeaways by teams who had previously had 35 or more and by teams who had previously had 20 or less is minimal. Teams with 35 or more had 27.5 in their next season and teams with 20 or fewer had 25.8 in their next season.

I’ll repeat it, it’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season. While I give them the benefit of the doubt offensively, I don’t defensively. On top of that, teams with differential of +15 have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Green Bay’s +24 differential definitely counts.

So did they do enough to improve their defense in the offseason? Rookies Jerel Worthy, Casey Hayward, and Nick Perry will all have impacts this season, but they’re just rookies. The good news is that the Packers actually ranked 2^nd in scoring defense in 2010 with 15.0 points per game allowed and they still have a lot of the same players. They have talent. They just didn’t play like it last year. And defensive coordinator Dom Capers is one of the best in the business.

Defensive Line

Perhaps the biggest example of a player playing well in 2010 and not in 2011 is nose tackle BJ Raji. After ranking 10^th at his position on ProFootballFocus in 2010 with a 15.8 rating, Raji graded out 2^nd to last among defensive tackles in 2011 with a -20.2 rating. He was his position’s worst player against the run and no one was within 5 points of him. He didn’t rush the passer well either with 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 19 quarterback pressures on 579 pass rush snaps (4.0%). In 2010, he had 8 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 643 pass rush snaps (7.9%). The 2009 1^st round pick is only heading into his age 26 season so there’s definitely bounce back potential for him.

One player gone from their Super Bowl team is Cullen Jenkins and the Packers really missed his pass rush ability. Their top 3 players at defensive end last year, Ryan Pickett, Jarius Wynn, and CJ Wilson, all were horrible as pass rushers. They all ranked in the bottom 6 at their position as pass rushers. The trio combined for 3 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on a combined 824 pass rush snaps, good for a combined rate of 2.8%.

Add in the combined 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures that Raji, Howard Green, and Mike Neal had on a combined 812 pass rush snaps and you get a defensive line that had a pass rushing rate of 3.4%. That’s awful. No wonder they only had 29 sacks, good for fewest among playoff teams and tied for 3^rd worst in the league.

Those guys were solid against the run as a group, especially Ryan Pickett, but they were awful pass rushers. Pickett is a very strong player against the run. He just doesn’t get any pass rush. That was fine in 2010 when Raji was rushing the quarterback well and Cullen Jenkins was there, but not last year. The Packers will be hoping that Jerel Worthy can at least be Cullen Jenkins lite in a situational role and that Raji can bounce back. That will allow the one-dimensional Pickett to be more of an asset than a liability.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Packers have their best defensive player. Clay Matthews only had 6 sacks last year, but graded out above average against the run and in coverage and a deeper look at his pass rushing stats suggest he had a very good season in that aspect last year. He may have only had 6 sacks, but he had 22 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures on 502 pass rushes, good for a very impressive 14.1% rate that suggests he was just unlucky in 2011. In fact, in his amazing 2011 season, his pass rush rate was “only” 13.3%. He never regressed. People have just been looking at the wrong statistics. He ranked 5^th among rush linebackers last year with a 30.0 rating.

What’s been most impressive about Matthews’ play is that he’s been doing this despite constant double and triple teams, especially last year. The Packers’ defensive line obviously isn’t going to draw much attention from Matthews on passing plays and the opposite rush linebacker has never done that either. Last year, that opposite rush linebacker was Erik Walden.

Walden wasn’t a terrible pass rusher with 3 sacks, 14 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback pressures on 426 pass rush snaps, good for a solid 9.1% rate. However, he didn’t draw any attention away from the defense and played well primarily because he saw so little attention from the defense. He was also terrible against the run, last at his position by 8 points and his -20.5 overall rating ranked dead last among rush linebackers.

The Packers used a 1^st round pick on Nick Perry to replace Walden. Perry is a much more talented pass rusher than Walden. He’ll draw more attention away from Matthews and could become a very deadly player opposite Matthews, who will draw a lot of attention regardless. The Packers have never had another good pass rusher opposite Matthews and are hoping the Matthews/Perry duo can become like the Brian Orakpo/Ryan Kerrigans and James Harrison/LaMarr Woodleys of the 3-4 defense world.

Between them, the Packers will start Desmond Bishop and AJ Hawk at middle linebacker. Bishop broke out in 2010 in place of an injured Nick Barnett and continued his strong play in 2011 with Barnett getting exiled to Buffalo. Bishop ranked 14^th among middle linebackers with a 14.5 rating. He struggled some in coverage, but played very well against the run and even added value as an above average blitzer up the middle, with 5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 150 pass rush snaps (15.3%).

Hawk, meanwhile, has been a disappointment since the Packers selected him 5^th overall in 2006. He was given a pretty big contract last offseason, but did not live up to it. He graded out below average with a -3.0 rating. He got too large of a signing bonus (8 million) last offseason to lose his starting job just yet, but he’ll be pushed by 2011 6^th round pick DJ Smith, who is having a great offseason. Smith should see an increase in the 267 snaps he had last year, during which he played very well. The coaching staff is high on him and may have unearned another gem. He could start in 2013 and beyond.

Grade: B+

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Secondary

The Packers pass defense was 7^th in the league in 2010, thanks to the deadly duo of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams at cornerback. However, that number fell to 27^th in 2011. The weakened pass rush had something to do with it, but Tramon Williams regressed thanks to an injury he played through and Charles Woodson finally started to show his age.

Williams was amazing in 2010. He ranked 5^th at his position with a 15.7 rating and his 43.8 QB rating allowed ranked 1^st at his position among eligible players (75% of his team’s snaps). In fact, no one was within 17 points of him in that statistic. He allowed 56 catches on 123 attempts (45.5%) for 690 yards (5.6 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (including playoffs), while deflecting 15 passes and committing just 4 penalties.

However, a right shoulder nerve injury he suffered in the 2011 opener really limited him and made him unable to press cover effectively. Williams says he couldn’t even lift a 30-35 pound dumbbell over his head with his right arm last season. He was a much more middle of the pack cornerback last year, allowing 68 completions on 116 attempts (58.6%) for 1159 yards (9.9 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 3 penalties. Williams has been working all offseason to strengthen up the surrounding muscles and now says he can lift up to 90-100 pounds over his head. Along with BJ Raji, Williams is a bounce back candidate and that would be a huge lift for the Packers’ defense.

Opposite him, Charles Woodson is heading into his age 36 season. Though he led the league in interceptions last year, he really started to show his age and was frequently burned. He allowed 53 completions on 84 attempts (61.1%) for 611 yards (7.3 YPA), 4 touchdowns and those league leading 7 interceptions. He also deflected 7 passes and committed 9 penalties.

In 2012, Woodson could play more safety. If 2^nd round rookie Casey Hayward can prove himself a worthy starter in Training Camp, Woodson could be one of their starting safeties. If not, Woodson will still almost definitely play there in sub packages, which would allow the Packers to get as many playmakers into the defensive backfield as possible on passing downs. Sam Shields, a solid nickel cornerback, will also come in on passing downs with Williams, Woodson, and Hayward.

The reason Woodson could have to move to safety is because Nick Collins, who used to be their starting safety, was cut thanks to a nasty neck injury that may prevent him from ever playing again. Collins was a talented player who the Packers really missed last season. In his absence, Charlie Peprah was awful with a -10.0 rating, good for 70^th at his position out of 84 eligible. He was equally bad in pass coverage and against the run. He’ll definitely see fewer snaps this year and could be pushed for a starting job by a 2011 undrafted free agent that the Packers like, MD Jennings, and by Hayward, through him moving Woodson full time to safety. The Packers do have the other safety position locked down as Morgan Burnett is a solid starter.

If the rookies can have impacts right away and Tramon Williams and BJ Raji can bounce back, the Packers could have a solid defense this year to compliment their awesome offense, something they’ll need to go deep into the playoffs. If not, they could be even worse than last year as the 38 turnovers they forced last year probably aren’t sustainable. Given that their offense probably won’t quite average the 2^nd most points per game in NFL history again, that could lead to a noticeable decline for the Packers in the win total. I lean with the former just because of how good the Packers are at discovering talent and how well coached defensively they are by defensive coordinator Dom Capers.

Grade: B

Head Coach

He’s not mentioned with the game’s elite coaches, but he should be. Mike McCarthy has a 63-33 career record and a Super Bowl ring and has been the architect and what’s become the league’s premier passing offense. A lot of people like to give departed offensive coordinator Joe Philbin a lot of the credit, but he didn’t even call the plays. McCarthy is one of the best offensive minds in the game.

Grade: A-

Overall

The Packers probably won’t go 15-1 again and they probably won’t score 35.0 points per game again. Those two things are too hard to sustain. However, they have the chance to be a lot better on defense and if they can do that, it’ll go a long ways towards getting this team back to the Super Bowl. Remember, this team is still 21-2 in their last 23 total games, 17-1 in their last 18 regular season games and Aaron Rodgers’ numbers are off the charts since the middle of the 2010 season. They also haven’t lost a regular season game by more than 5 since the middle of the 2009 season.

Since the start of the 2009 season, this team has scored 1409 points and allowed 896, good for a differential of +513 points. Only New England has a higher differential (+518) in that time period. With an average of 470 points for and 299 points against in the past 3 years, they have a Pythagorean Expectation of an average of 11.9 wins per season over the past 3 years, which leads the league. Only New Orleans and New England (37) have more actual wins than the 36 that the Packers have in the last 3 seasons. I’m taking their consistency to have another strong regular season and go deep into the playoffs.

They have a rough schedule, especially in the division, as both the Bears and Lions are formidable opponents, but they could still go 5-1 in the division. Outside of the division, they host San Francisco, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Arizona, and Tennessee. San Francisco and New Orleans were the 2^nd and 3^rd seeds in the NFC last year, but I think San Francisco is overrated and New Orleans is not nearly as fearsome away from the Superdome and the other 3 games are going to be pretty easy at home. Over the 11 games mentioned, 10-1 or 9-2 seems likely.

Rounding things out, they go to Seattle, Indianapolis, Houston, St. Louis, and New York to play the Giants. Seattle is always a tough place to play, Houston is a good team, while the Giants always play them tough, and Indianapolis and St. Louis should be improved. However, a record of 13-3 is not too crazy for this team. With San Francisco likely regressing this year and New Orleans having all kinds of off the field issues, the Packers should be the NFC’s #1 seed again unless the Giants channel their 2008 selves (minus Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the foot) or another unexpected team has a huge year.

Projection: 13-3 1^st in NFC North

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Jets’ receiver Santonio Holmes is not a believer in two-quarterback systems

July 17, 2012 stevenlourie Jets, News

According to a report by Pro Football Talk, Jets receiver Santonio Holmes does not believe a two-quarterback system can work in the NFL. This is noteworthy because the Jets are planning on running the closest thing we have in the NFL to a two-quarterback system with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. Holmes is essentially saying he doesn’t believe in what the coaching staff is trying.

This might not be as big of news if Holmes didn’t have his already negative history in New York. Holmes was a real locker room cancer last season and disrupter of team chemistry on a Jets team that disappointed and missed the playoffs after back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances and an 8-5 start. Former teammate LaDainian Tomlinson said last week that Holmes will likely check out mentally (at best) in a run heavy offense, which is what the Jets are planning on using. Anyway you add it together, it doesn’t look like things are going to end well for Holmes in New York.

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Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch arrested for drunk driving

July 17, 2012 stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch was arrested today for drunk driving. This is major news because this is hardly Lynch’s first run in with the law. Lynch was accused of sexual assault in 2007. In 2008, he pleaded guilty to failure to exercise due care to avoid striking a pedestrian during a hit and run with a pedestrian. And in 2009 he was pulled over, and the cops smelled marijuana and found a loaded gun. He was eventually charged with 3 counts, avoided drug related charges, and pled guilty to a single misdemeanor weapons charge. Lynch was suspended for the first 3 games of the 2009 season.

Since then, Lynch had done a great job turning his career and his life around. He was traded from Buffalo to Seattle to get a fresh start and rushed for 1204 yards and 12 touchdowns on 285 carries last year, becoming a fan favorite in the process. This offseason, he earned a 4 year, 31 million dollar deal from the Seahawks, who can’t be happy about the recent news. Now he faces more legal discipline and could be given another suspension from the NFL. It’s painful to see someone be so stupid and risk ruining something so great that it took him so long to get back.

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Month: July 2012

Broncos offer Ryan Clady 5 years, 50 million

2012 NFL Power Rankings- July

Atlanta Falcons 2012 NFL Season Preview

New Orleans Saints 2012 NFL Season Preview

Minnesota Vikings 2012 NFL Season Preview

Detroit Lions 2012 NFL Season Preview

Chicago Bears 2012 NFL Season Preview

Green Bay Packers 2012 NFL Season Preview

Jets’ receiver Santonio Holmes is not a believer in two-quarterback systems

Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch arrested for drunk driving