Miami Dolphins 2012 NFL Season Preview

August 5, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Offense

The Dolphins are frequently considered one of the worst teams in the league, but they had a solid season last year. They finished 6-10, which isn’t great, but they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.5 wins, which ranked 14^th in the NFL and a DVOA that ranked 18^th. They went 6-6 once they switched quarterbacks to Matt Moore, outscoring opponents 260 to 209, which translates to 347 points for and 279 points against for 16 games, which translates to a Pythagorean Expectation of 10.0 wins. They also finished 6-3 in their last 9 games.

Of course, they did this with an easy schedule that had them play a playoff team just 4 times, all of which they lost (though two were before Matt Moore), but this year’s schedule has them play just 6 teams I think will make the playoffs as their non-divisional games are against the AFC South and NFC West, two of the league’s easier divisions, as well as Cincinnati and Oakland.

They had the league’s 20^th ranked scoring offense last year, scoring 20.6 points per game, and the league’s 6^th ranked scoring defense, allowing 19.6 points per game. Couldn’t they follow the decent quarterback/strong running game/strong defense/easy schedule model and make the playoffs in 2012? Sure, they could.

But several things can get in their way. For one, they have a completely new coaching staff and will be making fundamental changes on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they’ll be switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which might work out, but it might also be a case of fixing what’s not broken. Offensively, they’ll be going from a power blocking, run heavier offense to a zone blocking, pass heavier offense. Their offensive line won’t fit that scheme as well and passing more than they run does not take advantage of their offenses strengths and personnel.

Last season, they ran and passed exactly 469 times each, ranking 6^th in the league in rushing attempts and tied for 28^th in the league in passing attempts. That worked in junction with a strong defense to mask their quarterback’s deficiencies last year. League wide, teams passed on 55.5% of their plays last season (excluding sacks and penalties). If the Dolphins do even that this season, it could make their offense less efficient and their new game plan might have them to that. Even if it doesn’t, if the defense regresses, they’ll be forced to pass more, regardless of what their playbook says.

You also have to factor in that the Dolphins traded away their only good receiver and the only thing they did to replace him was bring in a washed up 34-year-old receiver with a certain recently re-changed name who caught just 14 passes last season and that their strong running game was as a result of 5.0 YPC and 216 carries from a back who has a career 4.3 YPC and who, before last year, had managed just 212 carries in the last 3 seasons.

Quarterback

The one other thing that could hold them back is their quarterback situation. The Dolphins currently have 3 quarterbacks competing for the starting job, Matt Moore, the incumbent, David Garrard, a veteran free agent signing who missed all of last season with back problems, and, to a lesser extent, Ryan Tannehill, an incredibly raw rookie who went 8^th overall in April’s 2012 NFL Draft and who started just 19 games in college. Tannehill doesn’t have much of a chance at the week 1 job, but we could see him this season.

Let’s start with Matt Moore. This team was 6-6 once he took over last season, as he completed 210 of 347 (60.5%) for 2497 yards (7.2 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He led the team to 21.7 points per game in his 12 starts, which would have ranked 18^th in the league and a Pythagorean Expectation of 10.0 wins, which would have ranked 8^th in the league. The Dolphins’ weighted DVOA, which weights later games more, ranked 14^th in the league, a sign of Moore’s solid play.

Advanced statistics like him too. His adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 91.75, over 4 points higher than his normal QB rating. That number ranked him 8^th in the NFL, whereas his traditional QB rating of 87.1 ranked just 12^th. His accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) of 72.0% was a middle of the pack 17^th, out of 36 quarterbacks, and ranks one spot better than his traditional completion percentage of 60.5%.

His accuracy on balls that traveled 20+ yards through the air was a surprising 9^th at 47.5% and he went deep at a rate of 17.0%, 4^th best in the NFL. His under pressure accuracy was 66.2%, which was 3^rd in the league behind only Eli Manning and Drew Brees, though he did take too many sacks. He took a sack on 27.3% of pressured snaps, which was worst in the NFL and made his offensive line look worse than it was. However, all in all, he played above average last season.

There are issues, however. The first is whether or not he can do it in a more pass heavy offense, with a likely regression from Reggie Bush, a possible regression from the defense, and the absence of Brandon Marshall, by far his most targeted receiver. Marshall was targeted 138 times on a team that passed just 469 times, meaning he was targeted on 29.4% of his team’s throws. When you take out 30 throw away and other non-targets, Dolphins quarterbacks “aimed” 439 passes last season, meaning Marshall was targeted on 31.4% of his team’s “aimed” targets.

The second issue is how pedestrian Moore was in his career prior to last season. Moore was an undrafted free agent in 2007 and last offseason was an afterthought when the Dolphins signed him and for good reason. He had completed just 227 of 392 (57.9%) for 2640 yards (6.7 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Not only could his defense and offensive supporting cast regress. Moore himself could regress.

The other veteran quarterback competing for the job is David Garrard. Garrard is reportedly outplaying Moore in camp and is currently the favorite for the job, with some like SI’s Peter King even saying that Garrard in Miami’s Training Camp looks more impressive than Peyton Manning in Denver’s Training Camp.

Garrard was one of the league’s most underrated starting quarterbacks during essentially 5 years as a starter in Jacksonville. Despite having a poor supporting cast, Garrard completed 1240 of 1981 (62.6%) for 14195 yards (7.2 YPA), 81 touchdowns, and 51 interceptions, while going 36-32 in 68 starts. You saw how Jacksonville’s offense collapsed last season without him.

However, he’s heading into his age 34 season and coming off season ending back surgery which caused him to miss the entirety of the 2011 season after being cut for salary cap purposes in the preseason last year. Despite the glowing reports from Peter King and others, he probably isn’t much different from Moore at this stage in his career. With the right supporting cast, he can get you to the playoffs.

Matt Moore seems perfectly capable of game managing a team to victory when he doesn’t have to do too much. David Garrard, if he wins the quarterback competition, seems to be able to do the same thing. However, if the defense regresses and the offensive supporting cast regresses or the new scheme hurts either quarterback or if Moore himself regresses back to pre-2011 form, the coaching staff could throw Ryan Tannehill and his 19 collegiate starts into the fire before he’s ready. Garrard and Moore, for financial reasons, probably won’t both make the final roster. The Dolphins could trade or cut one of them, making Tannehill the primary backup.

If that happens, we could see a repeat of the Blaine Gabbert situation in Jacksonville from last season. At the same time, either of their veteran starters could channel 2011 Matt Hasselbeck, game manage their offense, supported by a strong defense, and compete for a playoff spot. Hasselbeck came into a similar situation last year, with his the Titans having a strong defense and having used the 8^th overall pick on a raw quarterback, and he led the Titans to 9-7 and the brink of the playoffs, keeping Locker on the bench all season. That could happen in Miami this year, but they could also suck like Jacksonville did.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I’ve already mentioned what a big part of their offense that Brandon Marshall was, essentially getting 1 out of every 3 of their “aimed” targets. The Dolphins really didn’t do much to replace him, signing a 34-year-old Chad Johnson-Ochocinco-Johnson, a mediocre Legedu Naanee, and using 6^th round pick on BJ Cunningham and a 7^th round pick on Rishard Matthews, both of whom might be ticketed for the practice squad as a rookie.

Johnson believes that he can have a bounce back year in Miami because he fits in with the locker room chemistry better. He was never a good fit in New England, both chemistry wise and with their complicated timing based offensive scheme, which he could never figure out. Miami’s scheme is easier and their locker room chemistry is different, but receivers rarely stay elite much longer than 33 or 34.

If you look at the receivers who have played in the last 10 years and who rank top-20 all-time in receiving yards, you’ll see that even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Ochocinco is 35 in January and currently “only” ranks 26^th in receiving yards all time, 845 back of the top-20.

Ochocinco has really never been the same since 2007. In 2008, he struggled mightily with injuries, catching just 53 passes for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2009, he bounced back, catching 72 passes for 1047 yards and 9 touchdowns, but he did that on 124 targets and managed just 3.3 YAC per catch. In 2010, he really struggled, catching just 67 passes on 118 targets (56.8%) for 831 yards (7.0 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and managing just 2.9 YAC per catch, a sign that his explosiveness was almost completely gone. That was 2 years ago. Last year, for the record, his YAC per catch was 3.1 in very limited action (15 catches on 31 targets, including playoffs).

Johnson (I know, I’ve called him Ochocinco, Johnson, and Johnson-Ochocinco-Johnson in this section, but if he can’t decide what he wants his name to be, I don’t have to decide what I’m calling him) will compete for a starting job with Brian Hartline and Legedu Naanee. Hartline is their leading returning receiver, which isn’t saying much.

He only had 35 catches on 66 targets for 549 yards and a touchdown. The 2009 4^th round pick averaged just 2.9 YAC, which shows his lack of explosiveness, as does the fact that he didn’t break a single tackle all year. Of the team’s 13 interceptions last season, 6 went on passes to him and he also dropped 7 passes. Dolphin quarterbacks had a QB rating of 48.1 when throwing to him, 90^th out of 92 eligible receivers.

Naanee, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated wide receiver, in part large because of quarterback’s 59.9 QB rating when throwing to him, 81^st in the league. This isn’t terrible until you consider that he had Cam Newton throwing him the football and the guys below him on the list played for Oakland, Indianapolis, Washington, Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Miami, Kansas City and Minnesota.

Naanee caught 44 passes on 74 targets (59.5%) for 467 yards (6.3 YPA), 1 touchdown, while allowing 4 interceptions. He only broke 1 tackle all year as well and committed 7 penalties, very high for a wide receiver. It’s no surprise that the Dolphins brought in Braylon Edwards for a workout last week. They may say they’re satisfied with their receivers, but they really aren’t and they shouldn’t be.

The one receiver the Dolphins can count on is Davone Bess. Bess is their 2^nd leading returning receiver, catching 51 passes for 537 yards and 3 touchdowns, doing so on just 79 targets (64.6%), while breaking 7 tackles and managing 4.4 YAC per catch. Last year was actually a down year for him as he had lines of 76/758/2 and 79/820/5 in the previous 2 seasons despite inconsistent quarterback play.

He’s an above average slot receiver, but he can also really play the slot so he won’t help them outside, which is the most important wide receiver position. The Dolphins really have nothing there unless Marlon Moore or Roberto Wallace can have major breakout years. The Dolphins are high on both of them, but probably only by default and partially out of delusion. Both are undrafted free agents from 2010 who have caught 6 career passes each, both doing so entirely in 2010. They played a combined 2 snaps in 2011, both by Moore, and didn’t record a target. Neither is even guaranteed a roster spot.

The Dolphins did add one other piece to their receiving corps this offseason, using a 3^rd round pick on a tight end, Michael Egnew. Egnew is a better fit for their new offensive scheme than incumbent Anthony Fasano, but he was widely considered a reach around the league because he doesn’t block well and he had a low career YAC at Missouri. He’ll see time at tight end, as will Fasano, a good blocker and red zone threat who caught 32 passes for 451 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. He’s mostly an afterthought in the passing game though, managing just 54 targets last season. His blocking and all-around game got him ranked 8^th on ProFootballFocus among tight ends last season, but he’ll have a smaller role this season.

Grade: D

Running Backs

While their receiving corps will almost definitely be worse this season than last season, their running game might not necessarily regress. Yes, it’s unreasonable to expect Reggie Bush to have 1086 yards and 6 touchdowns on 216 carries again. He’s only averaged over 4.2 YPC one other time in his 6 year career and combined for 212 carries in his previous 3 years before last year. In fact, before last year, his career stats in 5 seasons were 524 carries, 2090 yards (4.0 YPC), and 17 touchdowns. He will contribute in the passing game when healthy, as he has 337 career catches, including 43 last season, and he’s actually a better fit for this blocking scheme and offensive system than the old one, but he’s unlikely to stay healthy for the entire year.

However, the Dolphins have two young backs behind him on the depth chart who could pick up the slack. Daniel Thomas was a 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He had a disappointing rookie season, managing just 581 yards on 165 carries (3.5 YPC), catching 12 passes and 72 yards and only scoring once (through the air). However, he was just a rookie, so you can’t hold that against him too much. There’s no reason why he can’t become a solid compliment to Reggie Bush this season, when Bush is healthy.

And when Bush isn’t healthy, Thomas can be a solid compliment to Lamar Miller, a 4^th round rookie. Miller was frequently mocked in the 1^st or 2^nd round of mock drafts, but fell to the 4^th round, where the Dolphins decided he was too good to pass on and traded up for him, even though they didn’t really need another back. He’s having a strong offseason and he’s a perfect fit for this offense with his speed and pass catching abilities. He’ll be a perfect complement to Thomas and replacement for Bush when/if Bush gets hurt. They should be able to run the ball pretty well this season.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

One of the reasons the Dolphins should run the ball pretty well this season is a solid run blocking offensive line. They were the league’s 13^th best run blocking offensive line last season, according to ProFootballFocus, and, while they allowed 52 sacks, 3^rd most in the NFL, some of that can be blamed on quarterbacks with a tendency to take unnecessary sacks. They ranked 27^th in pass blocking efficiency, which is a more accurate measure. It’s still not good, but it’s not completely the offensive line’s fault.

The worst offender on the offensive line was right tackle Marc Colombo. Colombo was completely washed up in Dallas in 2010, but the Dolphins obviously wanted to see for themselves sp they signed him to be their starting right tackle. And it turns out, he was completely washed up. He was ProFootballFocus’ 64^th ranked offensive tackle out of 73, allowing 9 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures, while committing 3 penalties and struggling mightily as a run blocker. He retired this offseason. The Dolphins used a 2^nd round pick on Jonathan Martin and he should be an immediate upgrade, even as a rookie. He’s a good fit for their scheme.

Opposite him, Jake Long is not quite as good a fit for their scheme. He’s played his entire career in former Head Coach Tony Sparano’s power blocking scheme and might not have the foot speed to be as dominant in a zone blocking scheme. A top-9 tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, including 2^nd place finishes in 2009 and 2010, the 1^st overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft struggled by his standards last season. He still played above average, though, ranking 19^th, allowing 5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties and being an average run blocker. Unless he really struggles with the new scheme, he should be able to have a bounce back year.

On the inside, right guard is still an unsettled position after the retirement of incumbent starter Vernon Carey (the Dolphins had two starters on their offensive line last year who retired this offseason, that’s pretty bad). 2010 3^rd round pick John Jerry was drafted to be a starter by now, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to start thus far in his career. He struggled this offseason as well, after being the early starter, losing his starter job to Artis Hicks, a backup in Cleveland last year, who struggled and is heading into his age 34 season. The Dolphins also signed Eric Steinbach, who was cut by the Browns after missing all of last season with back surgery. He’s heading into his age 32 season. Whoever starts there, it’ll be a position of weakness.

However, that’s really their only true weak link, unless Martin struggles mightily as a rookie. Center Mike Pouncey had a solid, but unspectacular rookie season last year, after being the highest interior lineman drafted since Chris Naeole went 10^th overall in 1997. Still, he could definitely have a breakout year in 2012. Meanwhile, left guard Richie Incognito is also a solid starter, who pass protected better than he run blocked last season. Unless they have major problems transitioning to a new scheme, this should be a solid offensive line. Their biggest concerns offensively should be their wide receivers, regression from the quarterback position, and their quarterbacks having to do too much thanks to a new scheme and possibly an inferior defense.

Grade: B

Defense

Speaking of that defense, they ranked 6^th last year, allowing 19.6 points per game, and 11^th in defensive DVOA. In their final 12 games, they allowed just 17.4 points per game. Those were the 12 starts Matt Moore made. This is significant because the previous quarterback, Chad Henne, was prone to interceptions and stalled offensive drives, which is why the team ranked 14^th in scoring defense in 2010, despite having the 5^th fewest yards per play allowed and ranking 10^th in defensive DVOA. In 2010, their offensive interception rate sunk from 3.8% to 2.8% (2.6% by Moore).

Under normal conditions, they could easily do even better than that this season with a full season of either Moore or Garrard and because of how few takeaways they had last season. They had just 19 turnovers, mostly because they recovered just 3 fumbles, worst in the league and a very fluky figure. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games in the following season. However, as I established in the offensive write up, there’s no guarantee their quarterback play won’t regress in 2012. On top of that, the Dolphins are switching defensive schemes, so this might be a case of fixing what’s not broken.

Defensive Line

One thing that could hurt the Dolphins is that they don’t have a 2^nd pass rusher. They had 41 sacks last season, but 7 of those were by Jason Taylor, a situational rusher who has since retired. Only one other player, Cameron Wake, had more than 5 sacks. Wake had yet another fantastic season in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ best overall rush linebacker and 2^nd best rush linebacker as a pass rusher.

He may have managed “only” 9 sacks, but he also had 20 quarterback hits and 52 quarterback pressures on 519 pass rush snaps, an incredible 15.6% pass rush rate. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s had 32 sacks, 47 quarterback hits, and 101 quarterback pressures on 1093 pass rushes, an incredible 16.5% rate, the best rate in the NFL over that time period.

Assuming he has better luck and some of those hits and pressures turn into sacks, he could easily rank among the league leaders in sacks next season, even though he doesn’t have anyone opposite him to draw the pressure off of him. The only issue with him is that he could struggle, by his standards, in a 4-3 rather than the 3-4 he has spent his whole NFL career in, but I don’t see that as being a huge possibility. He played very well against the run as a 3-4 rush linebacker last year (2^nd) so he should be able to hold up against the run now as a down lineman.

In base packages, Jared Odrick will start opposite him. Odrick, a collegiate defensive tackle, spent last year as a situational pass rushing 3-4 defensive end, after the 2010 1^st round pick missed his entire rookie season with injury. He’s a better pass rusher than a run stuffer as a defensive tackle, but as a defensive end, he’s not going to get much pass rush. Last season, he had 5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 393 pass rush snaps, a 6.1% rate, good for a 3-4 end, not so good for a 4-3 end. At 6-5 304, he’ll obviously be good against the run as a defensive end, but they could struggle to get pass rush in base package, even with Cameron Wake.

Odrick will move inside on passing downs and play defensive tackle, where he’ll be an above average pass rusher and 3^rd round rookie, Olivier Vernon, will come in and play defensive end. Vernon is incredibly athletic, but also incredibly raw and they don’t have a lot of depth behind him, which is a problem. At defensive tackle, Odrick will play next to Randy Starks. Starks led their 3 man line in snaps played last season and ranked 6^th among 3-4 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus. He’s played in a 4-3 before, so he shouldn’t have much problem this season. He played equally well as a run stuffer and pass rusher and had 5 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback hits on 376 pass rush snaps, a 7.5% rate.

In base packages, Starks will play next to Paul Solial, who probably won’t fit a 4-3 as well as he fit a 3-4 because of his size at 6-4 344. I’m surprised they resigned him, rather than resigning Kendall Langford, a much better fit in a 4-3. He was a solid nose tackle in 3-4, but in a 4-3, he’s a solid run stuffer at best. He managed just 3 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 188 pass rush snaps, 4.3%. The Dolphins really only have two players can get to the quarterback in base packages (Starks and Wake). Solial also didn’t play nearly as well last season as he did in 2010, after which they franchise tagged him. He’s still really only a one year wonder.

Tony McDaniel, a mediocre player, will provide depth at defensive tackle. Depth is actually an issue all across the defensive line. Cameron Wake should have another amazing season and Randy Starks will play well again, but they could struggle to get to the quarterback in base packages some, and their depth is suspect. They might not achieve the 41 sacks last had last season, even if Wake has the type of 12-16 sack season he’s capable of. They will miss players like Jason Taylor and Kendall Langford. They will, however, continue to be strong against the run, after ranking 3^rd in that aspect last season.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3, the Dolphins’ linebacking corps will actually took pretty similar. Karlos Dansby, the league’s 13^th ranked middle linebacker last season on ProFootballFocus, will move outside and play one of the two outside linebacker spots. This is a new position for him as, even when he played in Arizona’s old 4-3, he played inside, but he should be fine. He’s above average both in coverage and against the run.

Kevin Barnett will remain in the middle. He too is an above average player against the run, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst player in coverage. Backup Gary Guyton may come in for him on passing downs, but he’s not much of an upgrade. Next to him, Koa Misi will change positions from 3-4 rush linebacker to 4-3 outside linebacker. This will probably be a good move for him, especially as he’ll be just a pure two-down run stuffing outside linebacker.

Misi, a collegiate defensive end and linebacker who went in the 2^nd round in 2010, has never been that great at getting to the quarterback, managing just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures on 113 pass rush snaps, a pathetic 5.3% rate. He’s not good in coverage either so he’s pretty useless on passing downs, but he should be a solid two-down run stuffer and come out in sub packages when the Dolphins go to two-linebacker sets. Even with the scheme switch, the Dolphins linebackers be part of what should be one of the best run stopping teams in the league again, but they will probably struggle in coverage.

Grade: B

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Secondary

One player who does not struggle in coverage is #1 cornerback Vontae Davis. The 2009 1^st round pick finally came into his own last season, allowing just 36 completions on 66 attempts (54.5%) for 496 yards (7.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 4 penalties. Opposite him, Sean Smith, a 2009 2^nd round pick, will compete for the starting job with Richard Marshall, a free agent acquisition.

Smith has not played as well as Davis in his career and last year he was tied for the 4^th worst rated cornerback on ProFootballFocus. He allowed 61 completions on 104 attempts (58.7%) for 793 yards (7.6 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties. He was much better in 2011, when he ranked as ProFootballFocus 9^th ranked cornerback, allowing 24 completions on 45 attempts for 325 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 1 penalty in 11 starts at cornerback (he started 4 games at safety and wasn’t as good). He’s shed 24 pounds this offseason and now is 6-3 190, an in effort to turn his career around heading into a make or break contract year. He’s a bounce back candidate.

If he can’t keep his starting job, he’ll be replaced by Richard Marshall, who played well both inside on the slot and outside for the Cardinals last year. If Smith remains the starter, Marshall will play on the slot and either way he’ll upgrade their secondary. Marshall allowed 28 completions on 54 attempts (51.9%) for 394 yards (7.3 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties last season. He ranked 3^rd in the league in receptions per coverage snap, 7^th in yards per coverage snap, and 2^nd in targets per coverage snap. With his addition and a potential bounce back year from Sean Smith, the Dolphins could have three legitimate starting cornerbacks.

At safety, things aren’t as good. Yeremiah Bell was awful last season and he’s gone. However, in his place, the Dolphins will start Chris Clemons, who really struggled in 2010, before being benched in 2011. Reshad Jones, who struggled in 2011, will start opposite Clemons. He’s the guy they originally benched Clemons for. Meanwhile, depth safeties Tyrone Culver and Tyrell Johnson both struggled in that role last season, Culver in Miami and Johnson in Minnesota. However, safety isn’t that important of a position and it doesn’t really seem like very many teams have good safeties this season.

The Dolphins have plenty of talent defensively. Cameron Wake, Karlos Dansby, Randy Starks, and Vontae Davis are all among the best in the league at their position, while Richard Marshall is underrated coming off a strong season, Sean Smith could have a bounce back year, and Jared Odrick has break out potential as an inside/outside player on the defensive line. They’ll be better against the run than against the pass again, but they should be strong overall, unless the scheme change messes everything up.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Joe Philbin was a hot Head Coaching candidate this offseason because he was the Packers’ offensive coordinator, but he didn’t even call plays in Green Bay. In fact, he’s never been a play caller anywhere in the NFL. He has Mike Sherman to do that here in Miami so he might not even do that next season. He’s also made some questionable major scheme changes that don’t fit the personnel well. If everything works out in his first year with the Dolphins (which it could), he’ll look like a genius, but if not, this could end up being a short stay that lasts just 2-3 years. There’s a lot of unknowns with him.

Grade: C

Overall

The Dolphins are one of three teams I’m completely torn on and all have unsolved quarterback situations. The Dolphins could be the 2011 Titans or they could be the 2011 Jaguars. The 2010 Titans were a team with a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.5 wins and in the offseason, they added a veteran quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) and a raw rookie quarterback (Jake Locker).

Hasselbeck game managed the offense and a strong defense (8^th with 19.8 points per game allowed) led them to 9 wins and the brink of a playoff spot. The Dolphins have the veteran quarterback, the raw rookie, the strong defense, and the Pythagorean Expectation from 2011. They could ride the decent quarterback, strong defense, easy schedule model to the playoffs in the inferior AFC.

The 2010 Jaguars, meanwhile, had a two veteran quarterbacks (Luke McCown and David Garrard) and a raw rookie (Blaine Gabbert), cut Garrard in the preseason for salary reasons, started McCown, only to watch him struggle mightily and get benched for Blaine Gabbert, the 10^th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, who was not ready and had a poor offensive supporting cast so he struggled so mightily that their solid defense didn’t even matter.

Either Garrard (age) or Moore (unproven) could struggle like McCown did early and the Dolphins probably won’t keep both, so Tannehill will have to take over before he’s ready and with a poor offensive supporting cast and struggle so mightily that their solid defense won’t even matter. The Dolphins’ 2011 Pythagorean Expectation is closer to the 2010 Titans’ than the 2010’ Jaguars, but their offensive supporting cast is closer to the 2011 Jaguars’ after the Brandon Marshall trade. As I did in the other 2 cases, I’m basically going to split the difference with this team and rather than the 5 wins the Jaguars had in 2011 or the 9 wins the Titans had in 2011, I’m going to give them 7 wins.

In the division, I think the Patriots and Bills are both better than them and the Jets may or be not be, so they should go 2-4 or so in the division. Outside the division, they host Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, Tennessee, and Jacksonville. Oakland and Jacksonville will be easy games and St. Louis and Seattle are bad road teams, while Tennessee is an unknown this season because we don’t know who their quarterback will be or how he’ll play. They could go 4-1 in those 5 games. In their other 5, they go to Houston, Arizona, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and San Francisco. Houston will be pretty unwinnable and San Francisco will be tough too and the other 3 are winnable, but not easy. 7 wins is a strong possibility, as is anything from 4 to 10 wins really, but I’m going with 7.

Update: Ryan Tannehill won the starting quarterback job because Moore struggled in the preseason and Garrard got hurt. I’m going with a prediction much closer to by worst scenario for them. Besides, Vontae Davis, who I highlighted as a big time player for them on defense showed up out of shape and got traded to Indianapolis. They could be one of the worst teams in the league.

Projection: 5-11 4^th in AFC East

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Vikings’ rookie Greg Childs likely out for the year with knee injuries

August 5, 2012 stevenlourie News, Vikings

This is not what you want to see. Greg Childs is an incredibly talented player who caught 48 passes for 897 yards and 7 touchdowns as a sophomore at Arkansas in 2009 and 46 catches for 659 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 8 games in 2010, before tearing his right patellar tendon. Childs struggled mightily in 2011, seeing limited action as he attempted to work his way back from that injury, catching just 21 passes for 240 yards and not scoring.

However, he worked his way back during the offseason before the draft, putting on strong individual workouts both on private visits and at his Pro Day. He ran a 4.48 40 at 6-3 219, showing off his immense athleticism and upside and convinced the receiver needy Vikings to take a chance on him in the 4^th round of the 2012 NFL Draft, still at least a 2 round drop from where he would have been if fully healthy.

The Vikings looked like they had a steal with him as he dominated in offseason workouts with the team and had himself in position to begin the season as a starter, with Jerome Simpson starting the year with a 3 game suspension. However, Childs went down with an apparent leg injury today during practice and is expected to be out for the season as the team fears he not only re-tore his right patellar tendon, but also tore his left patellar tendon. Needless to say, it’s a career threatening injury and a sad story for a talented player who may never get a chance to show his abilities in the NFL.

In his absence, veteran Michael Jenkins, once a candidate to be cut because of his 2.5 million dollar salary, becomes the favorite to start in Simpson’s absence opposite Percy Harvin. Also in the mix is 2011 7^th round pick Stephen Burton, who has had a strong offseason, mediocre veteran Devin Aromashodu, and even their other 4^th round rookie receiver, Jarius Wright, a former teammate of Childs’ at Arkansas. They may add another receiver through free agency or trade.

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New York Jets 2012 NFL Season Preview

August 5, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Jets

Offense

The Jets have been in the news so much lately that you’d think they were 3-time defending Super Bowl Champions. Instead, all they did was trade for Tim Tebow a few months ago. The reason they did that was because Mark Sanchez regressed in his 3^rd season in the league last year after back-to-back. Actually, he didn’t really regress. The Jets just didn’t have the same supporting cast they had in 2009 and 2010.

Sanchez statistically played about as well as he did in 2009 and 2010. In 2009 and 2010 combined, he completed 474 of 871 (54.4%) for 5735 yards (6.6 YPA), 29 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions. Last season, he completed 308 of 543 (56.7%) for 3474 yards (6.4 YPA), 26 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. In fact, you could argue that Sanchez actually played better last season than in his first two seasons. He’s always been mediocre. We’ve just never noticed because the Jets have done a great job at masking him and making his job easier.

So what happened last year? Well after ranking 1^st in the league in rushing yards in 2009 and 4^th in 2010, the Jets ranked just 22^nd last season. They didn’t just get a less talented on the ground in 2011, averaging 3.8 YPC, as opposed to 4.4 YPC in 2010 and 4.5 YPC in 2009. They also didn’t run the ball as much. In 2009, they led the league with 607 carries and in 2010 they had 534, 2^nd in the league. Last year, they had just 443 carries, 16^th in the league.

This was because of a much leakier than normal defense. In 2009, they ranked 1^st in the league, allowing 14.8 points per game and in 2010, they ranked 6^th, allowing 19.0 points per game. However, in 2011, they ranked 20^th, allowing 22.7 points per game. This forced Sanchez to throw a career high 543 times, after throwing a combined 871 times in 2009 and 2010. This made their turnover total rise from 51 combined in 2009 and 2010 to 34 last season alone.

The offense has never been what’s made this team go. In 2009, they ranked 17^th in the league with 21.8 points per game and in 2010, they ranked 13^th with 22.9 points per game. In 2011, they didn’t really change much, as they ranked 13^th with 23.6 points per game. Sanchez has less receiving talent, offensive line talent, and running back talent around him as opposed to 2009 and 2010, but if the defense can bounce back, they should be able to have a bounce back year and compete for a playoff spot, in theory.

The reason I say in theory is because everything I’m hearing about their locker room chemistry, morale, and intangibles is descriptive of a team profoundly screwed up behind the scenes. #1 receiver Santonio Holmes is a major malcontent, while cornerback Antonio Cromartie thinks so little of the receiving corps that he says he could be the team’s #2 receiver, after which #2 Chaz Schilens said he felt “slighted.”

Holmes has already publicly stated that he doesn’t think a two-quarterback system can work, which is essentially him saying that he doesn’t agree with the coaching staff’s game plan. Former teammate LaDainian Tomlinson also thinks that Santonio Holmes will check out mentally in a run heavy offense. Last year, he caused major locker room problems with his comments about his quarterback and his offensive line. He was almost cut this offseason after a disappointing statistical year last year, when he caught just 51 passes for 645 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the locker room could be split between Tebow and Sanchez. Sanchez is the starting quarterback, but Tebow might be the locker room favorite, which could cause all sorts of problems, as could their two-quarterback system, especially for someone who is not that respected to begin with like Sanchez. This team doesn’t have a central quarterback leader, which could be dangerous.

Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason, which the Jets could easily do, rarely make the playoffs. The Broncos last year were an obvious exception, but they had a very fluky year for a number of reasons, including making the playoffs with a Pythagorean Expectation of 5.8 wins. Even if they don’t switch quarterbacks, the two-quarterback system could lead to the same problems. It’s why no one has two-quarterback systems. It’s bad for team morale and chemistry. Yes, I’m agreeing with Santonio Holmes, who I called a malcontent. He’s right, but to say it isn’t good for the team. I also agree with Antonio Cromartie, but same thing there and the fact that he could be their #2 receiver is indicative of other problems.

Quarterback

I’ve already detailed Mark Sanchez and why I don’t think he’s a franchise quarterback. With the right mix of players around him, he can lead a successful team, but, when he has an average supporting cast, he gets really exposed and will struggle. His stats have been pretty bad in all 3 seasons and now, heading into his 4^th year in the league, I don’t think the 5^th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft will ever get much better.

Advanced statistics don’t like him either. Last season, his adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) of 76.18 ranked 30^th in the league out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. That’s actually worse than Tim Tebow, who ranked 25^th. His accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) of 35.1% on balls that go longer than 20+ yards in the air ranked 26^th out of 30 and his under pressure accuracy percentage of 49.0% was 34^th out of 35 quarterbacks. He also showed poor pocket presence, taking a sack on 23.8% of his pressured snaps, 8^th worst in the NFL.

The Jets might as well try Tebow as the starting quarterback. He beat Sanchez head-to-head last season despite having a worse supporting cast. His game is perfect for the Jets because he’ll open things up on the ground and make this a great running team, in addition to a strong defensive team (assuming a bounce back year defensively). He’s not much of a passer obviously, but the Jets are not built to be a passing team. He would also solve the two-quarterback problem. If Tebow is the starting quarterback and Sanchez is the backup, I think it would cause less of a locker room split than what has taken place in just the last few months with Sanchez as the starter and Tebow as the backup.

Tebow’s passing stats last season weren’t great, as he completed just 46.5% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. However, those stats are a little skewed because he had a really poor supporting cast, especially on the offensive line and in the receiving corps, and because his coaching staff only really let him throw in obvious passing situations, which made it easier for the opponent to defend. 80 of his 271 passing attempts came on 3^rd or 4^th down, 29.5%, one of the highest rates in the league.

He also elevated his game in the clutch, completing 67 of 124 (54.0%) for 999 yards (8.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the 4^th quarter and overtime. After passing attempt 20 of a given game, he completed 35 of 60 (58.3%) for 397 yards (6.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Not coincidentally, those were the situations when his coaching staff would take the chains off him and let him play his game.

He also was instrumental in the Broncos leading the league in rushing with 2632 yards, on a 4.8 YPC average. Not only he did rush for 660 yards and 6 touchdowns on his own on 122 carries (5.4 YPC), he opened things up on the ground for Willis McGahee, once a washed up back. At age 30, McGahee had one of his best seasons, rushing for 1199 yards and 4 touchdowns on 249 carries (4.8 YPC), his best season since 2007. Opposing front 7s almost always had to use a spy when playing the Broncos last year, for fear of Tebow taking off, which weakens and distracts their overall run defense as they try to stop running backs.

He was for McGahee what Michael Vick was for LeSean McCoy and what Vince Young was for Chris Johnson In the last 2 seasons, McCoy has carried the ball 375 times for 1954 yards (5.2 YPC) and 21 touchdowns in 24 games with Michael Vick and 105 times for 435 yards (4.1) and 3 touchdowns in 6 games without him. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2009, when Vince Young was his primary quarterback. In 2010, he rushed for 4.8 YPC with Young and 3.8 YPC without him. Last year, without him at all, he averaged just 4.0 YPC. For a Jets team that is best when they run first, he makes the most sense at quarterback.

Unfortunately, Sanchez is currently the starting quarterback and the Jets don’t have their until bye week 9 so they might not make the switch until it’s too late. The Jets have a tough early schedule (vs. Buffalo, @ Pittsburgh, @ Miami, vs. San Francisco, vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ New England). If the Jets come out of that 2-5, they might make the switch then, but it’ll probably be too late.

They’ll have to go at least 7-2 to make the playoffs after that kind of start and Tebow can’t be counted on to do that barring another freak stretch like he had last season. Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason rarely make the playoffs for a reason and I’m not expecting another Tebow miracle. Maybe in 2013 and beyond Tebow can make them a competitive team in the AFC if the team plays their cards right, but I don’t really like their chances that much in 2012.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

When the Jets were at their best, they did it by running more than they passed and they did that by having 2 backs. Now they only really have one, Shonn Greene. Greene is a pretty mediocre runner, who averages 4.3 YPC in his career and has only caught 46 passes in 3 seasons. Last season, Greene had to carry the ball a career high 253 times because he didn’t have Thomas Jones splitting carries with him like he did in 2009 and because LaDainian Tomlinson, who split carries with him in 2010, got old in a hurry and only had 75 carries.

Greene was pretty mediocre, rushing for just 1054 yards and 6 touchdowns (4.1 YPC), a big part of the reason why they managed just 3.8 YPC on the ground, 30^th in the league. That, along with a weakened defense, led to the Jets ranking just 22^nd in rushing yards last year, which, of course, put too much pressure on Mark Sanchez, which sky rocketed their turnover total.

This year, he is expected to get even more of a work load, with LaDainian Tomlinson gone and the team planning to run more overall, which is not a good thing. Having Tebow at quarterback, functioning essentially as a 2^nd running back, would help take some of the load off of him and also open things up on the ground for him the way Tebow did for Willis McGahee last season.

The Jets’ other running back options are Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight. Powell was a 2011 4^th round pick who rushed for just 21 yards on 13 carries as a rookie last year. McKnight, meanwhile, went in the 4^th round in 2010. He’s averaged just 3.9 YPC in his career on 82 carries, including 134 yards on 43 carries last year (3.1 YPC). He reported to offseason practices 15 pounds overweight after “bulking up,” which he admits was aided by a McDonalds heavy offseason diet. They’ll compete for a 3^rd down role, but neither is capable of being the true compliment to Shonn Greene they need.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The lack of a secondary back wasn’t the only reason why the Jets struggled on the ground in 2011. Their offensive line play didn’t help. They were alright in pass protection, ranking 12^th in pass blocking efficiency, but they ranked 13^th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus, after ranking 7^th and 6^th in 2009 and 2010 respectively. That hurt them. The biggest loss was right tackle Damien Woody, who was replaced by the incompetent Wayne Hunter. However, left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, left guard Matt Slauson, and right guard Brandon Moore all had down seasons as run blockers as compared to 2010.

Ferguson had a down year in general, not just as a run blocker. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 5^th rated left tackle, allowing just 2 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties and run blocking well. In 2011, he allowed 8 sacks, 7 quarterback pressures, and 22 quarterback hits, while committing 3 penalties and ranked 62^nd out of 73 players as a run blocker at his position. His down year not only contributed to a down year for the Jets’ line as run blockers, but in pass protection, as the Jets went from 1^st in pass blocking efficiency in 2010 to 12^th in 2011.

Opposite him, Wayne Hunter also contributed to their inferior offensive line play in both aspects. Hunter was awful, ranking 67^th at his position overall, allowing 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 11 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He was awful in 2010 as well, making 7 starts in place of an injured Damien Woody, allowing 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, while struggling as a run blocker and committing 8 penalties. Ferguson could easily bounce back, but he probably won’t. He’ll be the weak link on this offensive line this season.

Both of their guards struggled as run blockers in 2011 as well. Right guard Brandon Moore was strong in pass protection once again, allowing 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, but struggled as a run blocker. Left guard Matt Slauson, was mediocre as a pass protector again, allowing 4 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures, but also struggled as a run blocker in 2011. Both were better as run blockers in 2010 and could have bounce back years as well.

The only position that wasn’t inferior from 2010 to 2011 was center. Nick Mangold once again had an amazing season. ProFootballFocus’ top rated center in 2008, 2009, and 2010, Mangold ranked 2^nd in 2011. His strength is run blocking, but he can pass protect well, as well, allowing just 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures.

One issue for the Jets on the offensive line is depth as 4 of 5 starters didn’t miss any time with injury last season. The Jets haven’t had a lot of injuries up front in any of the last 3 seasons, as no starters missed time in 2008 or 2009 and only one, Woody, missed time in 2010. That leads to inexperienced backups who would be very unprepared if anything happens to the starters in 2012. The only starter who missed time last was Nick Mangold and, in his absence, Colin Baxter was absolutely awful. Despite only making 3 starts, Baxter finished the season ranked 56^th out of 65 centers who played a snap in 2011, in large part because of his atrocious run blocking.

If injuries strike this season, which they really haven’t in 4 seasons, Baxter and Vladimir Ducasse will be their top reserves. Ducasse, a 2010 2^nd round pick, has been awful in his career when asked to play, which hasn’t been that often, as he’s played just 167 snaps in his career. Once considered Woody’s successor, Ducaase could be cut after the season if he doesn’t improve. However, barring major injuries, this should be an improved offensive line this season from last season. Wayne Hunter is their only true weak link. They might not be the elite line they were in 2009 and 2010, but they’ll be better.

Grade: B+

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Santonio Holmes is the Jets’ #1 receiver, but he was almost cut this offseason after a down year statistically in 2011 and after causing major locker room problems. On 98 targets, he caught just 51 passes (52.0%) for 645 yards and 8 touchdowns last season, the worst season of his career. This offseason, he’s up to his old tricks, having meltdowns in practice, missing a lot of time with various injuries, and undermining the coaching staff’s offensive game plan publicly, just a few days after ex-teammate LaDainian Tomlinson said that Holmes would mentally check out in a run heavy offense.

Opposite him, Chaz Schilens and Stephen Hill will compete for the starting job. Schilens has talent, but he’s also very injury prone. In 4 seasons, the 2008 7^th round pick has caught 72 passes for 902 yards and 7 touchdowns. Hill, meanwhile, is a mere 2^nd round rookie. Rookie receivers tend to struggle and Hill could especially, coming out of a triple option offense at Georgia Tech.

However, at 6-5, Hill should at least be able to replace Plaxico Burress around the goal line. Burress only caught 50.0% of his targets last year, so Hill can’t be much worse. He also has upside if Tebow becomes the starting quarterback, because Tebow had great chemistry with a similar player, Demaryius Thomas, in Denver. Like Thomas, Hill is not a good route runner, but he’s got immense athleticism.

These receivers are a far cry from Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Jerricho Cotchery in 2010. Edwards and Holmes were both at their best then. Now Edwards and Cotchery are gone, Holmes is not at his best, and they really only have one proven starting wide receiver. With a weakened receiving corps in 2011, tight end Dustin Keller took over more of the offensive responsibility, leading the team with 65 catches on 109 targets and for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could have another strong year, even if only out of necessity. Behind him on the depth chart, Matt Mulligan is a strong run blocking tight end.

The Jets offense will be at their best if they can be run heavy and do it effectively. A better defense will allow them to be run heavy, but they’re thin at running back so I don’t think they’ll be able to do it that effectively, even with an improved offensive line. Because of this, they’ll be their best offensively when Tebow is the starting quarterback because he will open things up for the backs and serve as a 2^nd back himself. He also has a better chance of establishing a strong locker room presence, which this team desperately needs. Unfortunately, he is currently a backup and the 2^nd quarterback in a two-quarterback system that is bound to fail. The Jets probably won’t make the switch until it’s too late.

Grade: C+

Defense

As I’ve mentioned, the Jets will obviously be a better team if they play better defensively. In 2009, they ranked 1^st in the league, allowing 14.8 points per game and in 2010, they ranked 6^th allowing 19.0 points per game. However, in 2011, they ranked 20^th, allowing 22.7 points per game. There is reason to believe that last year’s performance is a fluke.

For one, the Jets ranked 5^th in yards allowed last season (4993), 6^th in passing yards per attempt (6.7 YPA), 7^th against the run (3.9 YPC),and 4^th in yards per play (5.0). Their defensive DVOA was 2^nd in the league, leading to an overall DVOA that ranked 9^th. Those numbers look eerily similar to their 2009 and 2010 numbers. In 2009, they ranked 1^st in yards allowed (4037), 1^st in YPA (5.4), 4^th in YPC (3.8), 1^st in yards per play (4.5), and 1^st in defensive DVOA. In 2010, they ranked 3^rd in yards allowed (4664), 6th in YPA (6.5), 3^rd in YPC (3.6), 3^rd in yards per play (4.8), and 6^th in defensive DVOA. I’ve assembled all of this into a chart that can be seen below.

Year	Points per game rank	Yards allowed rank	YPA allowed rank	YPC allowed rank	Yards per play rank	Defensive DVOA rank
2009	1st	1st	1st	4^th	1st	1st
2010	6th	3rd	6th	3^rd	3rd	5th
2011	20th	5th	6th	7^th	4th	2nd

A simple game of “find the outlier” shows that their 2011 points per game rank was a major outlier. They had a similar group of players as compared to 2010 and 2009 and still do. They had similar ranks in every statistic except points per game allowed as compared to 2010 and 2009. So why would they allow so many more points per game last season as compared to 2010 and 2009? Let’s do a little investigating.

Since DVOA became a stat following the 1992 season, teams who have a defensive DVOA that ranks at least 15 points higher than their rank in points per game allowed see an average of a 9 spot increase in their points per game allowed rank. If the average holds, the Jets would rank 11^th in the league in scoring defense this year.

That’s obviously not certain, but the Jets do appear likely to bounce back defensively for other reasons. Their offense allowed 49 points last season, which gets added into points per game allowed just as points allowed by the offense does, as opposing defenses scored 7 times against the Jets last season, or once every 4.9 turnovers. There’s no real skill involved with stopping opposing defenses from scoring once they have the ball. It’s mostly luck. The average team surrenders a defensive touchdown once every 13.6 turnovers.

If the Jets turn the ball over 34 times next season, they can be expected to allow 2.5 defensive touchdowns, which would save them 32 points, or 2 points per game. The Jets allowed 22.7 points per game last season. 20.7 points per game would have ranked…12^th, which coincidentally is an 8 spot improvement, only 1 less than the average improvement for teams that allow a lot of points despite high DVOAs.

The other issue is the shear amount that the Jets’ defense was on the field. Stats that are on a per play basis like DVOA, YPC, YPA, yards per play, and points per drive (6^th with 1.55), love the Jets, but they faced 201 drives last season, 18 higher than the league average. The main reason for that was an offense that went 3 and out on 30.3% of their drives, 4^th worst in the league. Tebow’s Broncos were actually worse than that last season so that probably won’t change much this season no matter who the quarterback is, unless Tebow starts a good amount of games and proves that he was being hurt by a system in Denver that really only let him throw in obvious passing situations (a possibility).

Still, for a defense that ranked in the top-10 in every statistic except points allowed and for a defense that ranked in the top-10 in points allowed in 2009 and 2010, with a similar group of players, they should bounce back and have a top-10 defense again this season. Even just their turnover to defensive touchdown rate regressing towards the mean would put them close to the top-10. They certainly have the talent.

Defensive Line

The Jets like to use a mix of 3-4, 4-3, and 46 fronts and will continue to do so this season. No matter the scheme, Sione Pouha and Muhammad Wilkerson, once again, will play the most snaps as they fit whatever scheme they run. In a 3-4, their base package, Pouha will play nose tackle and Wilkerson will play defensive end, while in a 4-3, Pouha and Wilkerson will both play defensive tackle, though Pouha could come out in obvious passing situations.

Pouha is not much of a pass rusher, which is why he comes out in obvious passing situations, but as far as two-down run stuffers go, very few are better than him. He ranked 2^nd on ProFootballFocus among defensive tackles both overall and against the run and also chipped in 1 sack, 0 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures on 240 pass rush snaps, a decent 5.0% rate. The only issue with him is he’s heading into his age 33 season.

Wilkerson, however, is more of a complete defensive lineman. The 2011 1^st round pick has prototypical size at 6-4 315 to play 3-4 defensive end and 4-3 defensive tackle. He stopped the run well as a rookie and also had 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures on 300 pass rush snaps, also a 5.0% rate, but he did it on more snaps and had more sacks. Heading into his 2^nd season in the league, he could have a breakout year and play even more snaps than the 608 he played last season.

Rounding out their 3 man defensive line in a 3-4 is Mike Devito, the opposite defensive end. He too doesn’t generate any pass rush, with 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures on just 183 pass rush snaps, 5.5%, pretty bad for a situational player. However, he ranked 5^th among 3-4 defensive ends against the run and 10^th overall so he’s a valuable member of their 3-4 base package.

In all sub packages, DeVito will come out. In a 3-4 sub package, he’ll be replaced by Quinton Coples, the 16^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, but teams don’t run many 3-4 sub packages. In 4-3 sub packages, however, which they figure to run a lot of, Coples will play both inside and outside on the defensive line, something he did in college at North Carolina in a 4-3. As a defensive end, he’s a mismatch against the run and inside he’s a mismatch as a pass rusher.

Rounding out their 4-3 defensive line will be Calvin Pace. Pace is heading into his age 32 season and was average as a pass rusher last season, managing 5 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 381 pass rush snaps, an average 9.4% rate. He’s most useful as a run stopper in the base package as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Aaron Maybin, meanwhile, will rotate here as a situational player, either coming in for Calvin Pace at times or coming in for Coples when he moves to defensive tackle. Maybin, the 11^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, was a complete bust in Buffalo and was cut after 2 years and no sacks, but he reinvented himself as a situational pass rusher last season with a team leading 6 sacks, to go with 2 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 197 pass rush snaps, a very good 12.2% pass rush rate as a situational player. The Jets have gotten him to bulk up after playing last season in the 220s and 230s, in order to be able to play more snaps and get better against the run. However, he struggled in the 240s in Buffalo so the added weight could hurt him.

Bryan Thomas, heading into his age 33 season and coming off a major injury, will also provide depth as a defensive end in a 4-3. Marcus Dixon, who struggled as a situational pass rusher last year, will do the same at defensive tackle. He had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 270 pass rush snaps, a 4.1% rate. Quinton Coples’ presence will lead to him playing much less, which is a good thing. Kenrick Ellis, a 2011 3^rd round pick who barely played as a rookie, could also see some situational snaps inside in their 3-4 and 4-3. Things are going to be pretty much the same up front when they go to a 46 front, which only the Jets use extensively, only one defensive end will be offset more, essentially like a hybrid defensive end/rush linebacker. That will be either Pace or Maybin, most likely.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In a 3-4, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas are expected to be the starters on the outside, but Aaron Maybin will see his share of snaps there as well and Quinton Coples, who is incredibly versatile, might see some snaps there as well. Rex Ryan asked Coples to do some linebacker drills at his Pro Day before the draft, my first indication that he could be their pick, so maybe he’ll be used there this season in some packages.

Inside in a 3-4, David Harris, an above average starter, will start next to Bart Scott. Scott is heading into his age 32 season and might have been cut this offseason had it not been for the fact that his salary was fully guaranteed for this season. He probably won’t be around in 2013, but for now, he’s a solid 2-down run stuffer. He ranked 11^th among middle linebackers overall and 6^th among middle linebackers against the run on ProFootballFocus last season. 3^rd round rookie Demario Davis will see some action as a situational player, primarily focusing on coverage.

In a 4-3, Harris will remain an every down linebacker, while Scott will play with Harris Bryan Thomas in any of their 4-3 base packages. In 4-3 sub packages, which figure to be more frequent, Davis will play next to Harris in two-linebacker sets, while Scott will come off the field and Thomas will provide depth at defensive end as a situational pass rusher. In a 46, the 4-3 sub package trio, Harris, Scott, Thomas, will be the 3 linebackers and a safety, likely LaRon Landry, will come down into the box and essentially be a 4^th linebacker.

The Jets will show opposing offenses a lot of different fronts and they should get good play from them once again, as has been the case for the last 3 years. They’ve ranked 4^th, 3^rd, and 7^th against the run over the past 3 seasons and a strong front 7 has been a big part of that. They don’t get a ton of pressure, with 32 sacks in 2009, 40 in 2010, and 35 in 2011, and they should remain only an average pass rushing team again this season, but the strength of their defense is a strong run stuffing front 7 and strong secondary play. Even with an average pass rush, they should have a strong ranking against the pass, as they have in the last 3 seasons. In 2009, they ranked 1^st and in 2010 and 2011, they ranked 6^th.

Grade: B+

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Secondary

Speaking of that strong secondary, the Jets have two very talented cornerbacks in Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Revis was ProFootballFocus’ top rated cornerback last season, a title he’s held in 2 of the last 3 years. He’s been a top-3 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in 3 of the last 4 seasons and the only year he wasn’t was in 2010, when he ranked 8^th. His “down year” that year was due to an extended holdout and lingering injuries.

Last season, he allowed 35 completions on 85 attempts (41.2%) for 508 yards (6.0 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 16 passes and only committing 3 penalties. The 45.6 QB rating he surrendered was 2^nd among eligible cornerbacks (cornerbacks who played more than 50% of their team’s snaps), behind Ladarius Webb. His completion percentage allowed was best, a title he’s held for 3 straight seasons. In the last 4 seasons, he’s allowed 150 completions on 363 attempts (41.3%) for 1931 yards (5.3 YPA), 8 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, while deflecting 61 passes, and committing 13 penalties. That’s a QB rating allowed of 46.5, which is ridiculous. He’s easily the best cornerback in the NFL.

Cromartie, meanwhile, allowed 39 completions on 84 attempts (46.4%) for 566 yards (6.7 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 7 penalties. Not a lot of teams can say their starting cornerbacks both allowed fewer than 50% completion last season, but the Jets can actually say their starting cornerbacks have done that in each of the last two seasons. This is clearly one of the top cornerback duos in the league.

The Jets do need their 3^rd cornerback, Kyle Wilson, to step up. Wilson, a 2010 1^st round pick, has not progressed well so far in his career. As purely a slot cornerback in 2011, he allowed 40 completions on 60 attempts (66.7%) for 499 yards (8.3 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 2 penalties. Cornerbacks can take a couple years to get adjusted to the NFL and a breakout year from him would obviously be huge, but there’s no guarantee that one’s coming.

Strong cornerbacks really mask their awful safeties, but they do have some awful safeties. Their oft injured starters from 2011, Brodney Pool and Jim Leonhard, are both gone and starting in their place will be long time backup Eric Smith, who has struggled mightily in his career when asked to start, and LaRon Landry, who was let go by the Redskins this offseason when he refused to get surgery on his injured Achilles. He’s doubtful to make it through a 16 game season.

Because of that, the Jets signed Yeremiah Bell. Bell and Smith are probably going to start the most games of this trio, but they ranked 73^rd and 77^th respectively on ProFootballFocus last season. Heading into his age 34 season, Bell won’t get any better. Landry, meanwhile, is no guarantee to play when even when healthy. He missed a good portion of the offseason program and, though he was a solid starter last year in Washington, he’s not likely to be 100%. I don’t know why he didn’t just get surgery. He’ll end up needing to get it at some point and he’ll probably miss most of this season.

The Jets also have two late round picks, 6^th round pick Josh Bush and 7^th round pick Antonio Allen, on the roster and they sadly could see action this year. Unless they have breakout rookie years, the Jets’ safety play could be among the worst in the league. That being said, they have enough talent elsewhere to have a bounce back year after a fluky 20^th ranked scoring defense in 2011. They should be a top-10 scoring defense once again in 2012, which will help them be more run heavy on offense.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

Rex Ryan gets a lot of flak for making bold predictions that he has yet to be able to make good on, but all he’s trying to do is set high expectations for his team. Other teams also do the same thing privately in the locker room, but Ryan is a very extroverted guy who likes to make those predictions public. I don’t have a problem with his talking.

Besides, he’s produced results so far, making 2 NFC Championship games in 3 seasons and going 28-20 in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs. He’s also done a very good job with this defense, especially, which is his area of expertise. They were an 18^th ranked scoring defense in 2008, before he took over and implemented his more complex defensive scheme, which also worked very well in Baltimore when he was the defensive coordinator. However, if the Jets underachieve for the 2^nd straight year for chemistry issues, Ryan deserves to get the blame for that and calls for his job will be merited.

Grade: B+

Overall

I’m really torn on the Jets. On one hand, the defense almost definitely will bounce back, which will allow the offense to run more and Mark Sanchez to have to do less. That was their model in 2009 and 2010, when they made the playoffs, and in the inferior AFC, against an easy schedule, they could make the playoffs again following that same model, especially if Tim Tebow, the perfect quarterback for that model, takes over the job early. Tebow went 8-5 in 15 starts last season, including playoffs, despite having a worse defense supporting him and an equally bad supporting cast. Meanwhile, the Jets’ DVOA ranked 9^th, which suggests that their 8-8 record was not totally indicative of their play last season.

On the other hand, their offensive supporting cast is not the same as it was in 2009 and 2010. Mark Sanchez has an inferior offensive line in both aspects, one of the thinnest receiving corps in the league, and a running game that averaged 3.8 YPC last year. Meanwhile, the chemistry, morale, and intangibles surrounding this team are a mess and teams that switch quarterbacks midseason rarely make the playoffs. Sanchez could easily not improve and Tebow might prove that last season was a fluke, which, on pure statistics, it looks like it was as the Broncos made the playoffs with just a Pythagorean Expectation of just 5.8 wins(though you can’t always go purely on statistics).

They could bounce back and make the playoffs and they could completely bottom out and get Rex Ryan fired. They’re one of three teams I’m completely torn on (all have unsolved quarterback situations, not coincidentally) and, like in the other 2 cases, I’m going to split the difference and put them at about 7 or 8 wins, out of the playoffs, but not completely bottomed out.

I think they’re the 3^rd best team in the division, with Buffalo looking poised to contend for a playoff spot, so they should go 2-4 or 3-3 in their division. Meanwhile, outside of the division, they host San Francisco, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, and San Diego. Houston will be tough and San Diego is a late season game and they’re always tough then. They could go 3-2 or 2-3 in those 5 games. In the 11 games listed so far, 5-6 makes sense. In their other 5 games, they go to Pittsburgh, Seattle, St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. Seattle and St. Louis are good home teams and Pittsburgh is a very tough team. Tennessee won’t go down easy and Jacksonville is the only easy road game. They could easily go 7-9.

Projection: 7-9 3^rd in AFC East

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Buffalo Bills 2012 NFL Season Preview

August 4, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Offense

It was really a tale of two seasons for the Bills last year. In their first 7 games, they went 5-2, with a win over New England. Their only two losses came by a field goal against eventual playoff teams Cincinnati and the New York Giants (on the road), and their other 4 wins were at Kansas City, vs. Oakland, vs. Philadelphia, and vs. Washington.

They outscored their opponents 211 to 147, which extrapolates to 482 points for and 336 points against for a 16 game season, totals that would have ranked 4^th and 12^th respectively if sustained over the whole season. Those numbers also translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of about 11.2 wins. However, the Bills won just 1 of their final 9 games, finishing 6-10 with 372 points for (14^th) and 434 points against (30^th) and a Pythagorean Expectation of just 6.6 wins.

Quarterback

So what happened? Did the Bills prove their first 7 games were a fluke? Maybe, but injuries also had a lot to do with it. Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose breakout performance in the team’s first 7 games earned him a shiny new contract extension, suffered a rib injury week 8 against the Redskins, cracking 4 ribs and injuring his sternum, and was not the same afterwards.

In his first 7 games, Fitzpatrick completed 155 of 229 (67.7%) for 1739 yards (7.6 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. In his final 9, he completed 198 of 340 (58.2%) for 2093 yards (6.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. That’s a big part of the reason why their offense went from 30.1 points per game in their first 7 to 18.1 points per game in their final 9.

Of course, Fitzpatrick was not helped by injuries to members of his supporting cast. Fred Jackson, an early MVP candidate, went down for the season week 11, after rushing for 934 yards and 6 touchdowns on 170 carries (5.5 YPC), while adding another 442 yards on 39 catches in the air. Meanwhile, key offensive linemen Eric Wood and Demetress (then Demetrius) Bell also suffered injuries with Wood going down for the year week 10 and Bell missing 9 games from week 4 to week 14.

After surrendering just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games, they surrendered 11 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 42 quarterback pressures in their final 7 games. This is significant because Ryan Fitzpatrick’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was just 53.3% last season, 29^th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, he ranked 33^rd out of 34 players under pressure, by being accurate of 50.0% of his under pressure snaps. He also threw 8 picks to 2 touchdowns under pressure.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Fitzpatrick’s performance in their first 7 weeks wasn’t somewhat fluky. After all, Fitzpatrick’s career before those 7 games was not exactly dominant, completing 679 of 1175 (57.8%) for 7104 yards (6.0 YPA), 44 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions in his career prior to last season, numbers that look eerily similar to how he played in his final 9 games last season. There’s also no guarantee he won’t get hurt again.

Still, it’s no coincidence that Fitzpatrick’s play, and the play of the team, got much worse when he got hurt and had to start playing injured and when several other key offensive players got hurt. They won’t score the 30.1 points per game they scored in their first 7 games, but they should be improved over the 23.2 points per game they finished with. He’s got a limited arm, completing just 17 of 58 passes deeper than 20+ yards in the air and going deep on just 10.2% of his attempts, but in Chan Gailey’s system, he’s capable of game managing a team to victory so long as he’s protected well.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

One of the reasons to believe in Fitzpatrick this year is how good his offensive line is. Fitzpatrick has proven that he can lead an effective offense if given time in the pocket and the Bills have one of the best offensive lines in the league at doing that. Even with two major injuries, the Bills ranked first in pass blocking efficiency and allowed Fitzpatrick to be pressured on just 21.8% of his drop backs, 2^nd best in the NFL.

Fitzpatrick also helps himself out with a quick release, taking a sack on just 15.6% of his pressured snaps, 8^th best in the league, but his completion percentage plummets when pressured and he can get very erratic with the football (8 interceptions to 2 touchdowns). And they were even better before injuries struck, allowing just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games. Over 16 games, that’s an incredible 14 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, 49 quarterback quarterbacks if they could keep that up. They also ranked a decent 15^th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus.

Eric Wood is back. Despite only playing in 9 games last season, he finished the year as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th best center, run blocking well, allowing just 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback pressures, not allowing a sack and committing only 2 penalties. The presence of the 2009 1^st round pick in the lineup undoubtedly helps and,if he can play all 16 games this season, it would be a huge boost.

Demetrius Bell is not back, but he never could stay healthy anyway. To replace him, the Bills used a 2^nd round pick on Cordy Glenn. Glenn was not seen by many as someone who could stay at left tackle at the next level, which is why he fell to the 2^nd round, but the Bills think he can and he’ll start there week 1. He’ll be an upgrade over Chris Hairston, who allowed 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 9 quarterback pressures, while run blocking poorly and committing 4 penalties in essentially 7 starts. The Bills also tried Andy Levitre at left tackle. He played better than Hairston, but he’s much better as a left guard.

Making 12 starts at left guard (3 at left tackle, 1 at center), Levitre was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th rated guard, allowing 4 sacks, 1 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties and run blocking well. He was only average at left tackle, where he allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback pressures in 3 starters and he also made a start at center, showing off his versatility, though he was his worst at center. He’s never missed a start in 3 seasons after going in the 2^nd round in 2009 and having him for 16 games at left guard will definitely be a boost.

At right guard, Kraig Urbik and Chad Rinehart will compete for the starting job. Urbik was the week 1 starter last year, but also played some left guard and center when needed and missed two games himself, which allowed Rinehart to get a good amount of playing time. In fact, Rinehart played more snaps than Urbik did and outplayed him according to ProFootballFocus.

Both are excellent pass protectors, as Rinehart allowed 0 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures and Urbik allowed 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback pressures, but Rinehart was the better run blocker and overall player. Urbik was better at guard than at center, but Rinehart should win this job. It’ll be close in Training Camp though and whoever wins should be an above average starter and whoever loses will provide solid depth as both players are good enough to start.

Right tackle Erik Pears is another solid player, especially in pass protection, allowing 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties, though he struggled as a run blocker. The Bills don’t have the biggest names up front, but they play very well as a unit, especially in pass protection, which is more important, especially with Fitzpatrick under center. The one question mark is Cordy Glenn at left tackle, but they should rank among the top-5 pass blocking lines in the league at least, after being the #1 rated pass blocking line in the league last year, in spite of injuries.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

While they don’t run block that well, they run incredibly well, averaging 4.9 YPC last season, 5^th in the league. They missed Fred Jackson when he went down, obviously, because he was an MVP candidate prior to his injury, but not too much because CJ Spiller, the 9^th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, played almost as well in his absence. Spiller averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 107 carries last season, giving him 561 yards and 2 touchdowns, while catching 39 passes for another 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills have two legitimate #1 backs right now and will use both of them.

Fred Jackson rushed for 934 yards and 6 touchdowns on 170 carries (5.5 YPC) in 10 games, while adding another 442 yards on 39 catches in the air. He’s heading into his age 31 season, but he does only have 817 career carries after spending so many years working his way up as an undrafted free agent out of Division-III Coe. He certainly didn’t look like an older back last season and Spiller has proven himself worthy of a larger workload, which will help keep Jackson, who doesn’t have much of a prior injury history, healthy. They’ll be one of the best running teams in the league and that, along with their offensive line, will really help Fitzpatrick.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Ryan Fitzpatrick is also helped out by #1 receiver Steve Johnson. Johnson broke out in 2010, once Fitzpatrick became the starting quarterback, catching 71 passes for 930 yards and 10 touchdowns in 13 games with Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback. Over 16 games, that’s 87 catches for 1145 yards and 12 touchdowns.

In 2011, he caught 76 passes for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns, despite playing through a groin injury for most of the season. In his first 7 games last year, when Fitzpatrick was healthy, he caught 39 passes for 439 yards and 4 touchdowns, good for 89 catches for 1003 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games. Now fully healthy, with Fitzpatrick fully healthy, he could have a career best season in 2012 and catch upwards of 85 balls for 1100 yards and possibly double digit touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the rest of his receiving corps is not quite figured out yet. The Bills essentially have 4 guys competing for the #2 receiver spot. David Nelson was their 2^nd leading receiver last year, playing both on the slot and outside and catching 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns. Even if he doesn’t win a starting job, he’ll probably be the slot guy. Donald Jones, a 2010 undrafted free agent, might be the favorite to start opposite Johnson this season, but he’s caught just 41 passes for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 seasons.

Derek Hagan is another option. He spent part of last year in Oakland as well, where he was a preseason standout and caught 5 passes for 61 yards in a loss to the Bills. When the Raiders let him go, the Bills, undoubtedly remembering his performance against them, decided to give him a shot. He caught 7 passes for 89 yards in the season finale, but did little else all season, catching just 24 passes for 252 yards and a score. He’s a career journeyman who hasn’t had much success anywhere.

The 4^th candidate is 3^rd round rookie TJ Graham, who has an outside shot right now at both a starting job and a slot job, but he’ll probably end up working his way up the depth chart as the season goes along. He should start the year as the 5^th receiver. He’s incredibly athletic, but incredibly raw with only one year of starting experience at wide receiver at the collegiate level. He’s also a deadly return man, but the Bills don’t seem to want to use him there, even as a rookie. CJ Spiller could also see some action at wide receiver, as they try to figure out creative ways to use their backup running back.

The Bills don’t use tight ends very often, but when they did last year, it was primarily Scott Chandler, who played just 533 snaps, primarily as a blocker. He’s a good run blocker and a solid receiver, who caught 38 passes for 389 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. He’s especially useful around the goal line at 6-7 263. The rest of their tight ends totaled just 256 snaps played.

The tight end position isn’t a position that Chan Gailey’s offense uses much as they prefer to spread it out and use multiple wide receivers. They also pass to the backs frequently, as Spiller and Jackson combined for 78 catches last year. The Bills do have multiple receivers, but only one who is above average, Steve Johnson. They do run the ball well and have a strong offensive line though and they should be a solid offensive squad, provided Fitzpatrick doesn’t get hurt or prove that his strong start to last year was a complete fluke. As long as they can protect him well, which they should be able to, he should be able to game manage this offense well.

Grade: B-

Defense

Even if the Bills aren’t improved offensively (which I think they will be), they’ll definitely be improved defensively. The Bills ranked 30^th in the league last year, allowing 27.1 points per game. The biggest problem was that they couldn’t get to the quarterback at all, managing just 29 sacks. Only 2 teams had fewer and 9 of those 29 sacks came in one game against Washington’s terrible offensive line. No one had more than 6 sacks and only 3 players had more than 3 sacks. After the addition of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, that won’t be a problem in 2012.

The Bills also get back Kyle Williams from injury, one of the league’s best defensive linemen when healthy, and they might actually get something from Shawne Merriman, who missed most of last season with an Achilles injury after teasing Bills fans with a strong Preseason. On top of this, they have several young players who could make a major impact. This could actually be a pretty strong group this season.

Defensive Line

The Bills are moving to a full time 4-3 scheme this year. They get Kyle Williams back at defensive tackle and add Mario Williams and Mark Anderson at defensive end. Williams was ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated defensive tackle in 2010, over 16 points ahead of any other defensive tackle. In fact, only 4 defensive players finished the season with a higher rating than Williams did and they were all edge rushers. However, his 2011 season consisted of only 225 snaps before going down for the season with a broken foot week 5.

He’ll play inside at defensive tackle with Marcell Dareus and, barring a struggle adjusting to a pure 4-3 scheme from a hybrid, he should be one of the better defensive tackles in the league this season. Dareus could also be one of the best defensive tackles in the league this year. As a rookie, the 3^rd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft was ProFootballFocus’ 12^th rated defensive tackle (he also played some 3-4 defensive end).

He played the run well and rusher the passer well and had 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures on 407 pass rushes, good for an impressive 9.1% rate. He could be even better in his 2^nd season in the league and the sky is the limit for this #3 overall pick. Spencer Johnson, who started in Williams’ absence last year and played pretty poorly, will provide depth, but won’t be needed much, barring injuries, which is a good thing.

Outside, the two big additions are Mario Williams and Anderson. Williams missed 11 games with injury last season, but the 2006 1^st overall pick had missed a combined 3 games in 4 seasons before last year, so he should be pretty reliable. In 82 career games, he has 53 sacks and plays the run incredibly well, as you would expect out of a 6-6 292 pound defensive end.

Last year, he had 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback pressures on just 126 pass rush snaps, an incredible 19.0% rate. That’s obviously not sustainable over a whole season, but from 2008-2010 he had 33 sacks, 43 quarterback hits, and 102 quarterback pressures on 1537 pass rush snaps, good for a 11.6% rate that ranks among the league’s best over that time period. He was a top-15 defensive end on ProFootballFocus in each of those 3 seasons.

Opposite him, Mark Anderson is not quite as proven. He had 15 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 420 pass rush snaps last season, an incredible 13.6% rate, but in 5 years prior he managed just 25 sacks and only surpassed 5 sacks once, when he recorded 12 sacks as a rookie in 2006. He also wasn’t an every down end in New England last year and could get tired out and become less efficient in a larger role in Buffalo this year.

Still, after the season he just had, he was definitely worth the risk on a deal with only one year’s salary guaranteed (8 million). He’ll see plenty of single blocking with defenses forced to focus on Mario Williams, wherever he’s lined up (Williams could play defensive tackle on passing downs), and he could definitely have another 10+ sack season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Bills had two pass rushers in double digits this year.

Another player who could be a significant addition to their pass rush is Shawne Merriman, who is competing for the nickel rusher job. Merriman has just 5 sacks in the last 4 seasons, but he had 40 sacks in 3 years from 2005-2007 in San Diego. He can’t seem to stay healthy, playing in just 23 games over the last 4 years, but he’s healthy now and reportedly putting on quite the show in practice. That was also the case last offseason, before he ended up getting hurt again, but he might be able to give them something as a situational player this year, though he definitely will never be his old self again.

If not, Chris Kelsay will probably be the nickel rusher. He was sadly one of their best pass rushers last season, but only by default as he had just 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 277 pass rush snaps, an 8.3% rate. He’s heading into his age 33 season so he’s not getting any better. It would obviously be better if Merriman could give them something this year, but Kelsay is adequate depth if needed.

With the additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, the return of Kyle Williams from injury, Marcell Dareus heading into his 3^rd season, and Shawne Merriman possibly coming back, this defensive line could go from one of the worst in the league in 2011 to one of the best in 2012. They ranked 27^th in the league allowing 4.8 YPC and only 2 teams had fewer sacks than their 29. They could have one of the highest sack totals in the league this season and they could be one of the best run defense teams as well.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Bills are switching from a hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme to a pure 4-3 scheme so their linebacking corps will look a little different. Nick Barnett will remain an every down linebacker, only he’ll play 4-3 outside linebacker rather than 3-4 middle linebacker. He’s an above average starter, but he’s heading into his age 31 season and he’s spent the last few seasons in a 3-4 in Green Bay and Buffalo. Still, he should be a solid player in coverage and against the run once again.

Kelvin Sheppard will remain in the middle and play an every down role this season, unlike last season. The 2011 3^rd round pick has slimmed down about 10-15 pounds in order to drop into coverage better, something he struggled with last season. He admits he was out of shape last season, but still played very well, especially as a run stuffer. He managed 70 tackles (46 solo, 24 assisted) last season and ranked 21^st among all middle linebackers on ProFootballFocus against the run, despite only playing 442 snaps.

Sheppard was even better in his final 9 games, where he had 59 of his 70 tackles, despite still only playing in 369 of his team’s 592 snaps over that period. Perhaps most impressive, Sheppard only missed 1 tackle, fewest among eligible middle linebackers. He could have a breakout season in 2012 as an every down linebacker now that he’s back in shape.

Kirk Morrison will be the 3^rd linebacker and only play two-downs and come out in two-linebacker sets. He barely played at all last year, playing just 60 snaps. He wasn’t hurt or anything, but the Bills’ coaching staff just really didn’t like the way he fit in their 3-4 defense. Back in a 4-3, which he played in for the rest of his career before last season, he should become a decent starter once again. He’ll only really need to stop the run, something he used to be one of the best in the league at doing. He ranked 24^th in 2010, 4^th in 2009, and 5^th in 2008 against the run on ProFootballFocus among middle linebackers. That shouldn’t change now that he’s playing outside. This is a solid group of linebackers.

Grade: B

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Secondary

One of the biggest reasons that the Bills couldn’t stop anyone was because they allowed 7.7 YPA, 25^th in the league. A much improved pass rush will really help, but they did need to upgrade their talent in the secondary as well. With that in mind, the Bills used the 10^th overall pick on a cornerback, Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has immediately been inserted into the starting lineup and many people have raved about his performance in the offseason, but defensive backs normally take a year or two to adjust to the NFL. Even Patrick Peterson struggled mightily in coverage as a mere rookie last season. He will be helped by their strong pass rush.

Starting opposite him will be Aaron Williams, a 2011 2^nd round pick. Williams struggled in coverage in a limited role last season, allowing 22 completions on 39 attempts (59.5%) for 356 yards (9.1 YPA), 5 touchdowns and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 4 penalties. His QB rating allowed was 4^th worst in the NFL (120.0). However, he was just a rookie so you can’t really hold that against him. He finished the season in the starting lineup in place of an injured Leodis McKelvin and will start this season there.

With two young and highly drafted cornerbacks, the future looks bright at cornerback and, while they’re young, they should be an upgrade over Drayton Florence and Leodis McKelvin, the starters last season. McKelvin allowed 27 completions on 45 attempts (60.0%) for 455 yards (10.1 YPA), 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 1 penalty. Florence meanwhile, ranked 89^th out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus, allowing 44 completions on 73 attempts (60.3%) for 714 yards (9.8 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 9 penalties. With a better pass rush, they should be an average team against the pass this season.

Florence is gone, while McKelvin will compete with 3 other guys for the nickel cornerback job. McKelvin, a bust as the 11^th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, will compete with Terence McGee, who is heading into his age 32 season and coming off an injury plagued season in which he barely played, Justin Rogers, a 2011 7^th round pick who is impressing this offseason, and Ron Brooks, a 4^th round rookie. Rogers is considered the favorite right now, while either of the two veterans, McKelvin and McGee, could be cut if that happens because they make the most money. Brooks’ roster spot is obviously safe as a 4^th round rookie. Rogers may be impressing this offseason, but he’s still inexperienced, playing just 216 snaps as a rookie last year.

At safety, things are better looking, thanks to Jairus Byrd, one of the league’s best safeties and most underrated players. Byrd, a 2009 2^nd round pick, was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked safety last season, playing the run well and covering well. He’s improved in every season of his career according to his ProFootballFocus rating and now is a complete safety, rather than just a pure ball hawk which he was in 2009, when he had 9 interceptions. Opposite him is George Wilson, a solid starter who is better against the run than in coverage and who is heading into his age 31 season. There’s a lot of talent on this defense, a lot more than last season and this should be a much improved unit from last season to this season for many reasons.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Chan Gailey hasn’t had a lot of success with the Bills, going 10-22 in the last 2 seasons, but then again, no one has had success with the Bills recently as they haven’t made the playoffs since 1999, the longest streak in the NFL. He does look poised to take them to the playoffs sometime soon, possibly even this season, and he went 18-14 in 2 seasons with the Cowboys in the late 90s. He also has a 68-41 record at the collegiate level as a Head Coach.

Grade: B-

Overall

Every year there’s one team who makes it to the playoffs on the strength of a strong running game and defense, a game managing quarterback, and a weak schedule. Last year it was the 49ers and the Bengals. In 2010, it was the Chiefs and to some extent the Jets. In 2009, it was the Jets again, etc. The Bills have the look of that type of team this season.

They have a much improved defense with one of the league’s best defensive lines, two legitimate starting running backs, and a very strong offensive line that will give Ryan Fitzpatrick the time he needs to game manage this offense to success. Barring any major injuries or complete regression by Fitzpatrick, they will be in the playoff race and I have them making it, sneaking in from the inferior AFC, and snapping a 12 season non-playoff streak.

The schedule is a big part of it too. They rank tied for 3^rd in terms of easiest schedule in 2012, based on opponent’s 2011 records. They play just 4 games against teams I have making the playoffs as they face the NFC West and AFC South, in addition to their own pretty easy division. Outside of those 3 divisions, they also face Kansas City and Cleveland.

Aside from New England, their divisional schedule is not hard. They could go 4-2 or 3-3 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Kansas City, Tennessee, St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Seattle. The best two teams in that bunch might be St. Louis and Seattle, who struggle on the road. Tennessee is a big unknown this season because we don’t know who their quarterback will be and how he’ll play. They could take 4 of those games. Their other 5 games send them to Cleveland, San Francisco, Arizona, Houston, and Indianapolis. I have 3 of those teams winning 6 or fewer games so even though they’re road games, they could take 2 or 3 of them. I have the Bills at 10-6.

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in AFC East

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New England Patriots 2012 NFL Season Preview

August 3, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Offense

I’ve talked a lot about parity in my previews before. One team that hasn’t been subject to the ups and down of the NFL over the last decade is the New England Patriots. Since 2001, the Patriots have 9+ games every season, won double digit games in 10 of 11 seasons, made the playoffs 9 times, won 12+ 6 times and 13+ 5 times. They’ve made it to the playoffs 9 times, the AFC Championship game 6 times, and the Super Bowl 5 times, winning 3. Tom Brady has a career regular season record of 123-35 and a postseason record of 16-6. Nobody has done it better than Brady and Belichick over the last 11 seasons.

I’ve talked a lot about the parity in turnovers from season to season before as well. Since 2002, there have been 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. Teams with differential of +15 have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season.

However, teams with elite quarterbacks seem to be pretty immune to this. The Indianapolis Colts had 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times in the last decade and actually won an average of 0.4 more wins the following season. The Patriots, meanwhile, appear on that list twice. One year was their 16 win season in 2007, after which they won just 11 games, but that was with Tom Brady missing most of the season. The other year was 2010 and last year they did it again and won just 1 less game. They also had differentials of +15 or more in those two seasons, as well as in 2003, when they won 14 games. They followed that season up with a 14 win season.

Discounting 2008 when Brady was hurt, the Patriots have ranked in the top-6 in scoring offense in each of the last 4 seasons. Discounting 2008 and 2009, when Brady was still getting his legs back under him, the Patriots have had a top-3 scoring offense in each of the last 3 seasons, including two 1^st place finishes. Last year, when they averaged 32.1 points per game, was actually their worst total and they’ve averaged 33.8 points per game in the 2007, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

Tom Brady gets a new weapon to play with this season, Brandon Lloyd, who is the best deep threat they’ve had since Randy Moss. Meanwhile, 2011 3^rd round pick Stevan Ridley looks like he could be their best running back since Corey Dillon. He also reunites with Josh McDaniels, who was his offensive coordinator in their record breaking 2007 season, when they averaged a record setting 36.8 points per game and finished the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history. Life is good in New England. Barring major injuries, the Patriots remain the favorite in a weak AFC with an easy schedule.

Quarterback

Excluding 2008, when he barely played, and 2009, when he was still getting healthy, Tom Brady has completed 1123 passes for 1681 yards (66.8%) for 13941 yards (8.3 YPA), 125 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. He’s won 43 of 48 regular season games and made two Super Bowls. He didn’t win the big one, but he pretty much has done everything short of that and the only reason to think he can’t win it this year is the fact that no Super Bowl loser has won the Super Bowl since the Dolphins won Super Bowl XII in 1973. Still, if anyone can snap a close to 40 year streak of disappointment from Super Bowl runner ups, it Tom Brady. It’s scary to think that you can make legitimate arguments that one or both of two other quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees) are actually better than Brady right now.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Despite his great success in 2007, 2010, and 2011, Tom Brady has really only had a true deep threat receiver in one of those 3 seasons. I doubt count Moss half assing 5 games in the start of the 2010 season. If anything, he hurt Brady in those 5 games because he still looked like Moss, but he wasn’t the same and caused Brady to mistrust him and that led to unnecessary and risky deep throws.

The Patriots added one this offseason as they went out and got Brandon Lloyd. Well, maybe that statement is not exactly correct. Lloyd essentially went out and got the Patriots. Lloyd took a major pay cut to sign with the Patriots, signing for just 12 million over 3 years. When you consider that Vincent Jackson got 5 years, 55.5 million and Robert Meachem got 4 years, 26.9 million, and Laurent Robinson got 5 years 32.5 million, Lloyd was the biggest steal of the offseason. How could the Patriots not sign him when he was that desperate to play for them?

Lloyd had good reason to be that desperate to play for them. Not only do the Patriots have a great quarterback to get him the ball and represent a good chance to win a Super Bowl, but they also allow him to reunite with Josh McDaniels, under whom Lloyd has become a breakout star in the last 2 seasons.

McDaniels and Lloyd are awesome together. Before McDaniels was fired as Head Coach in Denver in 2010, Lloyd caught 60 passes for 1153 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games with Kyle Orton as his quarterback. In 2011, he was traded to St. Louis, where McDaniels was the offensive coordinator. He caught 51 passes for 683 yards and 5 touchdowns in 11 games with an injured Sam Bradford, AJ Feeley, and Kellen Clemens at quarterback.

In the last 2 years, he has 111 catches for 1836 yards and 14 touchdowns in 23 games with McDaniels. Over 16 games, that’s 77 catches for 1277 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Kyle Orton, AJ Feeley, Kellen Clemens, and an injured Sam Bradford throwing him the football. Now he has Tom Brady throwing him the football. Credit him for making a decision for football reasons and not financial ones.

He’s reportedly putting on quite a show in Training Camp. Receivers don’t have a good track record when switching teams, but Lloyd looks poised to be an exception because he’s not learning a new system. He probably won’t quite have those aforementioned extrapolated numbers, but only because the Patriots have so many other great receivers to throw the ball to.

Speaking of those other great receivers, they figure to take a bit of a statistical hit this season because Lloyd will eat away some of their targets. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t still fantastic players. The player who could have the biggest statistical hit is Wes Welker. Welker had 122 catches for 1569 yards and 9 touchdowns last year and the latter two of those stats were career highs. However, he was 2^nd in the league in targets, which probably won’t happen again this season.

He also wasn’t quite as good down the stretch as he was early in the season. After catching 45 passes for 740 yards and 5 touchdowns in his first 5 games, he caught “just” 106 passes for 997 yards and 5 touchdowns in his last 14 games, including the playoffs. Having Lloyd opposite him could make him more efficient though because defenses will have to respect the deep ball once again, something they didn’t used to have to do. That will open things up underneath for Welker.

Tom Brady was only 23 of 73 on balls that went 20+ yards in the air last season. Some of that is slightly diminished arm strength as he ages (35 this offseason), but a big part of it was just not having anyone to catch those passes. Only 4 quarterbacks attempted fewer deep throws than Brady did, as he went deep on just 10.1% of his attempts last season. Lloyd will make everyone better in the receiving corps, even if their statistics don’t show it, because teams will have to respect the deep ball once again in 2012.

Rob Gronkowski essentially was their deep threat last season, but he’s just a tight end. He’s no ordinary tight end, however. Including playoffs, he caught 107 passes for 1585 yards and 20 touchdowns. He was also an above average run blocker and his 15 broken tackles were 2^nd in the league to teammate Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez had an amazing 28 broken tackles, which not only led tight ends, but wide receivers too. Calvin Johnson was 2^nd with 19. In fact, only Brandon Marshall has at least 21 broken tackles among all tight ends and wide receivers in the last 4 seasons.

Hernandez caught 98 passes for 1098 yards and 9 touchdowns, including playoffs last year. Tom Brady was 346 for 470 (73.6%) for 4420 yards (9.4 YPA), 39 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions when throwing to Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. Throwing to everyone else, he was 131 of 216 (60.6%), 1719 yards (8.0 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (the rest were throw aways and other non-targets). Brandon Lloyd will undoubtedly help.

Lloyd wasn’t the only offseason addition in the receiving corps, just the most important. The Patriots also signed a familiar face, Jabar Gaffney. Gaffney was with the Patriots from 2006 to 2008 and should be able to have an impact this season because he’s also familiar with Josh McDaniels. McDaniels was his offensive coordinator for all of his 3 seasons in New England and his Head Coach for 2 years in Denver from 2009 to 2010.

Opposite Lloyd in Denver in 2010, Gaffney caught 65 passes for 875 yards and 2 touchdowns and last year he caught 68 passes for 947 yards and 5 touchdowns, all career highs, in Washington, despite Rex Grossman and John Beck throwing him the ball. He’ll be a good 3^rd receiver and allow the Patriots more offensive flexibility as they weren’t really able to use many 3-wide receiver sets last year and when they did, they were that successful out of them. Aside from their two starting receivers, wide receivers played a total of just 696 snaps for the Patriots last year in 19 games and #3 wide receiver Chad Johnson-Ochocinco-Johnson caught just 16 passes for 297 yards and a score on 32 targets.

Deion Branch, meanwhile, will move from the starting lineup to the #4 receiver role, where he’s definitely an above average player. He’s aging, heading into his age 33 season and struggled down the stretch last season, but he’s always had strong chemistry with Tom Brady and is still a good route runner. The Patriots have plenty of receiving depth.

They also signed 3 more tight ends this offseason, signing Jake Ballard, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Daniel Fells. Ballard will likely spend the entire season on IR and was mostly claimed on waivers for 2013 and beyond, but Shiancoe and Fells will compete for the #3 tight end job. They didn’t have a 3^rd tight end last year, but in 2010, Alge Crumpler had an impact in that role, playing 604 snaps. Like Crumpler, Shiancoe and Fells are veterans who are great run blockers.

The Patriots have so much offensive flexibility this season, more than last season, and with Josh McDaniels back, they once again have a brilliant offensive mind coordinating it all. The only issue is age, as Welker is heading into his age 31 season, Lloyd is heading into his age 31 season, and Gaffney is heading into his age 32 season. Still, that probably won’t be a huge problem just yet in 2012, so Tom Brady has to be thrilled with his offensive weapons. Unless Brady’s abilities decline noticeably in his age 35 season (also not likely an issue just yet), he could once again have one of the best seasons of his career and the Patriots should once again score a ton of points.

Grade: A

Running Backs

One other reason that Tom Brady has to be thrilled is the potential breakout of running back Stevan Ridley, a 3^rd round pick in 2011. Ridley has the potential to be the Patriots’ best running back since Corey Dillon. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the perfect running back for the Patriots because he never fumbled and could run through holes. With how good the passing game and offensive line are, all the Patriots needed him to do was not fumble (0 fumbles in 557 career carries) and run through holes opened up by the offensive line against spread out fronts who are fearing the pass.

However, he was not explosive at all and didn’t do anything after contact. In his career, including playoffs, BJGE had 1305 yards after contact on 557 carries, just 2.3 yards per carry after contact. Before him, Laurence Maroney was inconsistent, ranging from solid to all kinds of crap. It hasn’t been since Dillon’s final season in 2006 that the Patriots have had a back with Ridley’s explosiveness.

Ridley averaged 5.1 yards per carry including playoffs last season, with 3.1 yards after contact, rushing for 462 yards on 91 carries total. He was good enough in limited action for the Patriots to let BJGE go and make him the lead back and he’s been impressing in Training Camp. He did fumble last season, something BJGE has never done, fumbling twice and lost one, but he only fumbled 3 times in college so he’s pretty sure handed when it comes to protecting the football.

One thing Ridley doesn’t do is pass catch as he had just 17 catches in his collegiate career and 5 last year. However, BJGE didn’t either and that didn’t matter much. Ridley will come out of the game on passing downs and the Patriots have plenty of other options in the receiving game, as I’ve detailed. The Patriots also have another back capable of pass catching, 2011 2^nd round pick Shane Vereen.

Vereen managed just 57 yards on 15 carries (3.8 YPC) last season in 5 games thanks to injury and for now has been surpassed by Ridley, a later draft pick in the same draft. However, he’ll have an impact too as a change of pace back and he caught 74 passes in college. The Patriots also have Danny Woodhead, who has settled into Kevin Faulk’s old role nicely. He’s caught 52 passes in the last 2 seasons as a situational player. They lack a proven back, but they have backs with upside and with how good their passing game and offensive line is, they don’t need much from the backs.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Speaking of that offensive line, they ranked 11^th in pass blocking efficiency last season. Brady was pressured on just 26.6% of his drop backs last season, 7^th best in the NFL out of eligible quarterbacks. This is nothing new as he’s been pressured on 536 of his 1975 drop backs in the last 3 seasons, just 27.1%. This is good because Brady doesn’t quite have elite pocket presence like some other elite quarterbacks. He’s taken a sack on 15.7% of those pressured drop backs, which is good, but not great.

He also only has completed 220 of 441 passes (49.9%) and thrown 23 touchdowns to 13 interceptions under pressure over the last 3 season, as opposed to 994 for 1425 (69.8%) with 94 touchdowns to 24 interceptions while not under pressure. If you want to nitpick his game, this is the area to do it. If you can beat his offensive line with 4 guys (like the Giants), Brady is stoppable.

It’s also worth noting that as long as his offensive line can beat the opponent’s defensive line, he can tear any secondary apart. You can’t just blitz him because he’s 345 for 546 (63.2%) for 4609 yards (8.4 YPA) and 34 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when blitzed over the last 3 seasons. And his offensive line frequently wins the battle because Belichick and company also know that Brady is beatable when pressured without blitzing, so they’ve made sure to build a great offensive line in front of him. They also ranked 3^rd as run blockers on ProFootballFocus last year.

Long time left tackle Matt Light is gone, but the Patriots made sure they were prepared for this day by using the 17^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft on Nate Solder, who will be the left tackle this year. Solder played mostly right tackle as a rookie, in place of an injured Sebastian Vollmer. He played alright, allowing 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing just 5 penalties and run blocking well, while playing essentially 16 full games, including playoffs.

Vollmer missed most of last season with injury, but he was very good in 2010 at right tackle, allowing just 1 sack, 5 quarterback hits, and 31 quarterback pressures, committing 5 penalties and run blocking well. He was even better in 2009 as a 2^nd round pick rookie, allowing just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback pressures in 10 starts, while run blocking incredibly well and committing just 4 penalties. The Patriots could have Vollmer and Solder switch sides if needed as Vollmer does have some experience on the left side, but, for now, Solder will be the left tackle and Vollmer will be the right tackle.

The Patriots also have a pair of great guards, Logan Mankins and Brian Waters. Mankins had a bit of a down year last year, allowing 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures, while committing 8 penalties, but he was still an above average run blocker and a solid starter overall. He’s been much better in the past.

Waters, meanwhile, has been one of the league’s best guards for years and that was no different at the age of 34 last year, despite signing with the Patriots right before the start of the season. He was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked guard, allowing 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties. He’s much better as a pass protector than a run blocker.

There are issues with both of them. Waters has yet to report to Training Camp as of this writing with an “excused absence” and a vague “issue,” leading to some speculation that he could retire before his age 35 season. Mankins, meanwhile, is not practicing after having surgery on his knee after the Super Bowl and his status for week 1 is reportedly in doubt. Unfortunately, these are the Patriots so they’re not really giving the media news on either of them so their status remains in limbo right now. Mankins will be back eventually and should be ready by week 1, but Waters is someone to worry about for Patriots fans.

If Waters retires, Dan Connolly, a mediocre starter, will move from center back to guard, giving Dan Koppen back his old job at center. Those two are currently competing for the center job. That’s a big drop off. If Waters retires and Mankins misses any time, the Patriots are out of luck as they’d have to rely on either the inexperienced Marcus Cannon, currently listed at right tackle, the inexperienced Ryan Wendell, who did play well in limited action last season, or the veteran Robert Gallery, who struggled mightily as a starter in Seattle last season. Mankins probably won’t miss much, if any time, however.

As I mentioned, Connolly and Koppen are competing for the center job. Connolly started every game except week 1 there last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 23^rd rated center out of 34. Koppen, meanwhile, was once a solid starter, but he missed all of last season with a broken leg and is now heading into his age 33 season. I think he deserves the job more. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 11^th rated center.

Still, the Patriots have a strong offensive line which will be good pass protecting and run blocking once again this season. As long as Brady is protected and doesn’t have an unexpected drop off his abilities at age 35, he should continue to tear up opposing secondaries. He has an even more talented and more versatile receiving corps this season and a potential breakout year from Stevan Ridley would also really help as it would make their offense more two-dimensional. They’ve also rehired Josh McDaniels, which should have a positive effect on their offense. In 2007, 2010, and 2011, they have ranked in the top-3 in scoring and averaged over 32 points per game in each season and 33.8 points per game overall. I think they can do that a 4^th time this season.

Grade: B+

Defense

While the offense is great, the defense could use some work. They ranked 15^th in the league in points per game allowed last season, allowing 21.4 points per game, but they allowed the 2^nd most yards in the league and ranked 30^th in defensive DVOA (though 3^rd offensively and 4^th overall). They get better the closer you get to the goal line, somehow, which is a good thing, but it can lead to poor offensive field position, as it did in their Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Still, there is reason to believe they’ll be better on this side of the ball this season. They used their first 6 draft picks on defense, including 4 in the first 3 rounds, and they should have fewer injuries defensively than the large amount suffered last season.

Defensive Line

One area of the Patriots’ defense that wasn’t a big problem was their front 7. They ranked 24^th against the run, allowing 4.6 YPC, which isn’t good, but including playoffs, they did have 57 sacks, including playoffs, and ranked a solid 14^th in the regular season with 40. The Patriots are losing two key pass rushers, Mark Anderson and Andre Carter, who combined for 26 sacks, 22 quarterback hits, and 60 quarterback pressures on 866 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 12.5%. Carter was also very good against the run, ranking 4^th among 4-3 defensive ends against the run, and 11^th overall.

In order to try to replace them, the Patriots used the 21^st overall pick on defensive end Chandler Jones, who figures to be a week 1 starter. Jones is incredibly raw as a pass rusher, but he can play the run right now and he has crazy upside. He’ll be part of a defensive end rotation and may come out on passing downs as a rookie.

The Patriots also signed Trevor Scott, who didn’t have a good year in Oakland last year, but he was a solid situational pass rusher in 2010 with 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 233 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 9.9%. He’s an ideal fit for their scheme and the Patriots may be able to get the most out of him.

Also in the rotation is 3^rd round rookie Jake Bequette and Rob Ninkovich, a converted linebacker. Ninkovich has plenty of experience rushing the passer and playing defensive end as he’d move down to the line on passing downs, but now it looks like he’ll be there full time. He had 9 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures on 439 pass rush snaps last season, an 11.8% rate.

He was also very good against the run, ranking 6^th among 4-3 outside linebackers in that aspect on ProFootballFocus and 10^th overall. That might not be the case now that he’s a full time defensive end because he’s undersized at 252 pounds. Defensive tackles Brandon Deaderick and Jonathan Fanene can also play some defensive end, as could linebacker Dont’a Hightower, in a similar role to Ninkovich’s from last season. They also haven’t ruled out re-signed Andre Carter, who is still unsigned coming off a leg injury at age 33.

At defensive tackle, Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love will be the starters again. Wilfork, who also played some defensive end in the playoffs, is great against the run, but struggles as a pass rusher with just 7 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 714 pass rush snaps, good for a below average 4.7% rate. Kyle Love, meanwhile, was a decent starter last season who only had to start because Albert Haynesworth disappointed. He stopped the run well, but didn’t get much pass rush with just 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, a 4.9% rate.

Converted ends Brandon Deaderick and Jonathan Fanene will provide depth at defensive tackle and play roles as situational pass rushers, as will Gerard Warren, who played surprisingly well last year, in limited action. He’s heading into his age 34 season, though. Deaderick, meanwhile, struggled last year at 4-3 defensive end, especially as a pass rusher, but he was playing out of position.

Fanene, meanwhile, played out of position at defensive end in Cincinnati last year, playing the run well, but struggling as a pass rusher. They should be better as situational rushers at defensive tackle. The Patriots have a lot of players who could have impacts and will, as always, use lots of different fronts and get the most out of their player’s different abilities. I don’t really worry about their defensive line play or pass rush.

Grade: B

Linebackers

One of the players who suffered an injury last season, as I mentioned, was linebacker Jerod Mayo. He missed 2 ½ games with injury, which isn’t much, but it’s worth noting. When healthy, he’s a very good linebacker who can play every down. He can play every linebacker position and ranked 7^th among 4-3 outside linebackers on ProFootballFocus last year.

Brandon Spikes and rookie Dont’a Hightower, the 25^th overall pick, are both great run stuffers, but struggle in coverage. Spikes played well when healthy last year, but he missed all of 8 games with injury and large parts of 2 other games. He was missed as he ranked 17^th among middle linebackers against the run and 18^th overall. It’s no coincidence their run defense was much better in the playoffs once he was back and healthy.

Gary Guyton rotated in for him in obvious passing situations, though he struggled in that role last season. He’s been replaced by Bobby Carpenter. Carpenter is a former bust of a 1^st round pick who has played sparingly over the past few seasons with multiple different teams, but the Patriots like him so maybe he’ll be an upgrade as a passing down specialist linebacker.

Hightower, meanwhile, will also only be a 2-down run stuffer as a rookie, coming out when the Patriots go to the sub package and their 2-linebacker sets. He could, however, as I mentioned, play defensive end on passing downs, as he did at the University of Alabama. He should be able to replace Rob Ninkovich, who is now a full time defensive end, and with better health, this group should play very well in 2012.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The secondary was the biggest problem defensively for the Patriots, who ranked 29^th in the league, allowing 8.0 YPA despite the great pass rush. Devin McCourty struggled after a strong rookie year, leaving Kyle Arrington to be the #1 cornerback, which he actually did a good job of after struggling in 2010.

McCourty and Arrington have each had strong years in the past 2 years, though unfortunately not concurrently. In 2010, McCourty allowed 58 completions on 104 attempts (55.8%) for 614 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 12 deflections, and 5 penalties, making the Pro Bowl in the process, while Arrington allowed 48 completions on 74 attempts (64.9%) for 726 yards (9.5 YPA), 4 touchdowns, 1 interceptions, 5 deflections, and 3 penalties

Last season, the two basically flipped. Arrington was the league’s leader in interceptions and allowed 69 completions on 119 attempts (58.0%) for 1032 yards (8.7 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 7 deflections, and 3 penalties, while McCourty allowed 69 completions on 111 attempts (62.2%) for 1074 yards (9.7 YPA), 6 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 8 deflections, and 5 penalties.

McCourty has played slightly better over the past 2 years combined and has more upside for the future as a 2010 1st round pick. Meanwhile, Arrington’s strong season in 2011 was mostly tied to his 7 interceptions and that type of thing can differ greatly from year to year. Both allowed high YPAs, which is a big part of the reason why they ranked so high in YPA allowed as a team. I expect Arrington to regress, McCourty to bounce back, and the Patriots’ pass defense to overall improve as they’ll only have one cornerback with an incredibly high YPA. They’ll be closer to the 21^st ranked pass defense (7.1 YPA) that they had in 2010, not great, but improved.

Arrington could even be pushed for a starting job by Ras-I Dowling, a 2011 2^nd round pick who missed most of his rookie year with injuries, another player who was a loss because of injuries. Dowling played just 93 snaps and he was supposed to be the nickel cornerback. Instead, guys like Sterling Moore, Antwaun Molden, Nathan Jones, Leigh Bodden, and even offensive players like Julian Edelman had to play cornerback, which they did for the most part unsuccessfully. If healthy, Dowling should be an upgrade even if he doesn’t win the starting job, but it’s worth noting that his injury problems go back to his days as a collegiate player at Virginia. Currently, however, he’s healthy and participating in all offseason activities including Training Camp, a very good thing.

Another major injury that the Patriots had in their secondary was to safety Patrick Chung. He missed 9 games with injury last season and was not right when healthy, as the 2009 2^nd round pick had the worst season of his career. When healthy, he’s a solid starter, but he does have an injury history beyond last season. He’s really their only good safety so they need him to be healthy. In his absence, guys like Sergio Brown, Josh Barrett, and even offensive player Matt Slater had to play safety next to James Ihedigbo, who was horrible as well.

Ihedigo was ProFootballFocus’ 78^th ranked safety in coverage out of 84 and he ranked 57^th overall. The Patriots signed Steve Gregory in the offseason, but he was even worse, ranking 75^th in coverage and 72^nd overall. They also used a 2^nd round pick on Tavon Wilson, but I think he was a reach. The Patriots grabbed him after frantically trying to trade down, unsuccessfully. It was a bad safety class, so they really didn’t have much choice, needing a safety. He probably won’t play much as a rookie though, unless Chung gets hurt again, a possibility.

The Patriots don’t have the most defensive talent, but they should be able to get the most out of it. They’ll have a solid pass rush even with the loss of Mark Anderson and their secondary should be better with a potential bounce back year from Devin McCourty and the return of Patrick Chung and Ras-I Dowling from injury. They also suffered injuries at linebacker to Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo last season, which hurt.

With better health, they should resemble their 2010 defense (19^th in DVOA) rather than their 2011 defense (30^th in DVOA), but that might not translate to an improved scoring defense after exceeding their DVOA by 15 spots and ranking 15^th with 21.4 points per game. They also exceeded their DVOA in 2010 by allowing just 19.6 points per game, 8^th in the league, so there may be a trend here. My prediction, however, is a middle of the pack scoring defense.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Do I really need to say anything about Bill Belichick? He’s the best in the game. No Head Coach has more duties and he executes them all well. He coaches well, he schemes well, he drafts well, he makes smart player acquisitions. He drafted Tom Brady in the 6^th round and then when Brady went down, he still coached the team to 11-5 with a 7^th round pick Matt Cassel. You don’t win 10+ games in 10 of 11 seasons with as many responsibilities as he has without being incredibly talented.

Grade: A

Overall

The Patriots have been a model of consistent excellence in the NFL over the past 11 seasons. No team has won more regular season games, playoff games, or Super Bowls in that stretch. As long as Brady is healthy and Belichick is coaching, they’ll be competitive. In a weak AFC against a weak schedule, they have to be considered one of the favorites, if not the favorite, to win the AFC and get the #1 seed for the 3^rd straight season. Their offense will be one of the best in the league again, maybe even better than last season, and their defense won’t be too bad.

Speaking of that easy schedule, they should be able to go at least 4-2 in the division with the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills. They went 5-1 in the division last year and will probably do that again. Outside of the division, they host Arizona, Denver, Indianapolis, Houston, and San Francisco. That’s not the easiest slate, but they almost never lose at home, going 40-8 at home, including playoffs since 2007, as opposed to 28-12 on the road.

Their other 5 games send them to Tennessee, Baltimore, Seattle, St. Louis, and Jacksonville. Their opponents have the worst combined 2011 winning percentage of any team’s opponents (.453). They play just 5 games against teams I have making the playoffs and no teams I have winning more than 10 games. They should be able to cruise to anywhere from 12-14 wins once again, barring injuries.

Projection: 13-3 1^st in NFC East

Offense

Quarterback

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Grade: A

Running Backs

Grade: B-

[yard_barker]

Offensive Line

Grade: B+

Defense

Defensive Line

Grade: B

Linebackers

Grade: B+

[google_ad]

Secondary

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Grade: A

Overall

Projection: 13-3 1^st in NFC East

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Indianapolis Colts trade CB Kevin Thomas and a 7th round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for MLB Moise Fukou and MLB Greg Lloyd

August 2, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Colts, Eagles, Offseason Moves 2012

Trade for Indianapolis: The Colts needed middle linebacker depth after losing AJ Edds to a torn ACL earlier this week, so they acquired Greg Lloyd and Moise Fukou from the Eagles. However, neither of these guys ever play and the Colts had to give up Kevin Thomas, which depletes their depth at cornerback even more. Thomas wasn’t very good last season, but he was a 2010 3^rd round pick and he competing for the starting job with Justin King.

Now King will be given the starting job, which is bad because he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated cornerback last season. They also have no depth at the position right now. Their top 3 cornerbacks will be Jerraud Powers, Justin King, and Cassius Vaughn this season. That’s going to be a dream for opposing quarterbacks.

It doesn’t make sense to give up on a 2010 3^rd round pick and deplete your depth at an important position like cornerback just for two scarcely used linebackers. Linebacker is not nearly as important of a position and neither of these guys have any experience in a 3-4. They also surrendered a 7^th round pick in the trade. Fukou and Lloyd might not have been worth a 7th round pick alone. You can find guys like that still available in free agency or on anyone’s practice squad.

Grade: C

Trade for Philadelphia: Neither of the guys they gave up were going to have any impact this season. In fact, they were both on the roster bubble. Thomas isn’t going to have much of an impact either, but it doesn’t hurt to have a little bit more cornerback depth and Thomas still has some upside as a 2010 3^rd round pick, despite missing 2010 with injuries and struggling in 2011. They also picked up a 7^th round pick. That’s not bad. They won this deal.

Grade: A

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Oakland Raiders 2012 NFL Season Preview

August 2, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Offense

Al Davis is gone and a completely new regime is in charge. New GM Reggie McKenzie was hired this offseason and fired Hue Jackson, their previous Head Coach, replacing him with new Head Coach Dennis Allen. Unfortunately, this new regime has been completely screwed over by the old regime. Hue Jackson’s trade for Carson Palmer left them without a 1^st round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, while Al Davis traded away their 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th round picks in other trades, leaving the new regime with very scarce resources to add talent through the draft. They also didn’t have a 1^st round pick in 2011, thanks to a not quite as bad, but still shortsighted trade for Richard Seymour.

Al Davis’ various moves also left them in a very bad cap situation. This left the Raiders unable to sign any significant free agents or resign any of their own like Michael Bush. This also forced them to have to cut some players just to get under the cap including Kevin Boss, Stanford Routt, and Kamerion Wimbley. The latter was their best defensive player last year and they will actually be paying him 6.5 million dollars this season to play for another team. Otherwise, they would have had to pay him 13 million this season, just one year after signing him to a massive, shortsighted, and cap unfriendly long term deal.

The loss of Wimbley represents the 2^nd straight offseason they’ve lost their top defensive player, after losing Nnamdi Asomugha last offseason. The loss of Stanford Routt represents the 2^nd straight offseason they’ve lost their top cornerback. These two losses, along with a few minor ones, leave them incredibly thin defensively, especially in the secondary. They already ranked 29^th in scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game, last season.

Offensively, they’ll be better, but not good enough to cancel out an awful defense. They weren’t even good enough to cancel out their awful defense last year, though they managed to win 8 games. They ranked 16^th in the league in scoring offense, scoring 22.4 points per game. The Raiders were pretty lucky to win 8 games last year, going 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.3 wins, 23rd in the league, and ranked 22^nd in DVOA. Last year, they played like a 6 win team or so and that was before all of their losses.

Quarterback

What ironic about the Carson Palmer trade is that, while they gave up a 1^st round pick in 2012 and a 2^nd round pick in 2013 for him, he wasn’t even much, if any, of an upgrade over Jason Campbell. Campbell made 6 starts last season before going down with an injury. In those 6 games, the Raiders went 4-2, averaged 26.7 points per game, and played 3 of 6 games against playoff teams. He completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.1 YPA and 6 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.

Meanwhile, Palmer went 4-6 in 10 starts, during which the Raiders averaged 19.9 points per game, and played just 3 of 10 games against playoff teams. He completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Palmer was obviously an upgrade over Kyle Boller, who would have started with Campbell hurt, but it’s pretty bad that the Raiders gave up a 1^st and 2^nd round pick for a guy who didn’t outplay Jason Campbell, who is currently a backup in Chicago.

Palmer is owed 12.5 million this season, even more reason their trade for him was ridiculous. Not only did it cost them two high picks, but it clogged their cap. And all this for a guy who had skipped the first half of the season and whose team wasn’t even using him. Owed 28 million over the next 2 seasons in 2013 and 2014, Palmer could be cut after the season if his performance doesn’t improve.

Palmer could be better this season in his 2^nd year in Oakland, especially now that he won’t be starting his season midseason like he did last year. However, he’s going to be learning yet another new offense and he’s heading into his age 33 season. He hasn’t aged well at all and he hasn’t been the same since getting hurt in 2008.

He had 4000 yard seasons in 2006 and 2007, but in 46 games since, he’s completed 918 passes on 1509 attempts (60.8%) for 10548 yards (7.0 YPA), 63 touchdowns, and 53 interceptions. Over a 16 game season, that’s 319 completions on 525 attempts for 3669 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 18 touchdowns. In 2009, he led the 22^nd ranked scoring offense to 19.1 points per game. Then, he led the 22^nd ranked scoring offense in 2010 to 20.1 points per game, both when he was in Cincinnati. The Raiders’ offense should be around there in 2012, possibly even worse as Palmer ages.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

A healthy Jason Campbell wasn’t the only reason why the Raiders averaged about 7 points per game in their first 6 games. Darren McFadden also went down around the same time, missing the final 9 games and only carrying the ball twice in their week 7 game. He had 113 carries for 614 yards and 4 touchdowns when he was healthy, but he never has been able to stay healthy. He’s never played more than 13 games in a season and only once surpassed 113 carries in a season. When healthy, though, he averages 4.8 YPC for his career and in 2010, his best season, he caught 47 passes.

If/when he gets hurt, the Raiders won’t have Michael Bush to turn to because he signed in Chicago. Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones will be his backups and split carries when he’s hurt. Jones was a 4^th round pick in 2011, who rushed for 73 yards on 16 carries last year and caught 2 passes. Goodson, meanwhile, has just 125 carries for 501 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 seasons, with 43 catches. They aren’t nearly as talented or proven as Bush and none of them are the power back that Bush was, to compliment McFadden. Because of this, they have been linked to veteran backs such as Cedric Benson and Ryan Grant, though they have yet to sign either.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Luckily, Carson Palmer does have good receivers. Darrius Heyward-Bey was the 7^th overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft and a major surprise pick. His doubters had a lot of ammunition after he caught 35 passes for 490 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first 2 seasons combined. However, he had a breakout 3^rd year last year, leading the team in receiving by catching 64 passes for 975 yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s better than any season that Michael Crabtree has ever had. Crabtree was the guy the Raiders passed on for DHB (cut to 49ers’ fans grimacing).

DHB might not be the Raiders’ #1 receiver in 2012, but it won’t be his fault. Denarius Moore looks like a breakout star waiting to happen. As a mere 5^th round rookie, Moore caught 33 passes for 613 yards and 5 touchdowns in just 13 games. In 6 games with Carson Palmer, Moore caught 19 passes for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 51 catches for 1083 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. Palmer has been raving about him this offseason and he could definitely be even better in his 2^nd year because receivers normally take a year or two to adjust to the NFL. He could surpass 1000 yards this season, leaving DHB as a solid 2^nd option for Palmer.

The Raiders have adequate depth as well. Once upon a time, Jacoby Ford was a popular fantasy sleeper who many envisioned could become a Denarius Moore type player before Moore did it. Ford missed 8 games with injury last season, but caught 19 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown last year after catching 25 passes for 470 yards and 2 scores as a rookie. He’s a decent depth receiver and slot guy. Meanwhile, 5^th round rookie Juron Criner was an absolute steal. He’s already gotten Louis Murphy traded and should be the #4 receiver at worst this year. He’s the possession receiver that none of their other receivers are so he could have an immediate impact, especially around the end zone.

However, while they have good wide receiver talent, the tight end position is a different story. Kevin Boss failed miserably in his first year in Oakland and was promptly cut this offseason. Lacking the cap space or draft picks to bring in a replacement, the Raiders will be starting blocking tight end Brandon Myers with 2011 7^th round pick David Ausberry as the “move” tight end. Myers is a solid blocker, but he only has 32 catches in 3 NFL seasons. Ausberry, meanwhile, is undersized at 6-4 245 and a former wide receiver. The Raiders like his ability as a pass catcher, but he’s not much of a blocker at all. He only has 2 career catches so he’s definitely no sure thing, but there is a little upside with someone that athletic.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

The Raiders also have a lot of young players on the offensive line, but they’re not quite as talented. Last season, they ranked 17^th in pass blocking efficiency and 16^th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus. The Raiders’ quarterbacks did them a favor and only took 25 sacks on 145 pressured drop backs, good for a sack rate of 17.2%. Carson Palmer was even better, taking a sack on just 16.2% of his pressured snaps, which ranked 25^th highest in the league out of 36 eligible quarterbacks

Left tackle Jared Veldheer is a very good young player and solidifies the most important position on the line for them. The 2010 3^rd round pick had a breakout year in 2011, allowing just 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures, while run blocking well. The one weakness in his game was 11 penalties, something that was a major problem for the Raiders last season. The Raiders committed 163 penalties for 1358 yards in 2011, both NFL records. Unfortunately, this is not an isolated problem as they led the league with 148 penalties for 1276 yards in 2010 as well and they were 2^nd with 117 penalties in 2009.

Another offensive lineman with 11 penalties last season was right tackle Khalif Barnes, who was below average in all facets of the game and especially awful as a run blocker. He ranked 54^th out of 73 offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus last year overall and 66^th as a run blocker. He also allowed just 2 sacks, but also 9 quarterback hits and 24 quarterback pressures. He’ll compete with Joseph Barksdale, an inexperienced 2011 3^rd round pick who played just 156 snaps last season, for the right tackle job. Neither is a good fit for their new zone blocking offensive scheme under new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp.

One player who will benefit for the switch is 2011 2^nd round pick Stefen Wisniewski. Wisniewski will also benefit from moving from guard to his natural position of center, where he’ll replace Samson Satele, a solid starter who wouldn’t have fit the new scheme. Wisniewski struggled as a rookie, particularly as a run blocker, but he played all year through injuries and the scheme and position switch could propel him to a breakout year now that he’s fully healthy and no longer a mere rookie. He played his best football in 2 starts at center last year.

Taking Wisniewski’s old spot is free agent acquisition Mike Brisiel. Brisiel was the only significant free agent they could afford, but at least they used their cap space wisely, bringing in someone at a position of need who has experience in the new zone blocking scheme. Brisiel was a solid starter in a zone blocking scheme for the past few years in Houston, where Knapp came from.

Rounding out the offensive line is Cooper Carlisle, who was resigned for the veteran’s minimum this offseason heading into his age 35 season. He should be glad his team didn’t have any premium picks or cap space as he could have been replaced. He struggled as both a run and pass blocker last season, ranking 57^th out of 76 guards on ProFootballFocus. He’ll be pushed for his job by Tony Bergstrom, a rookie who the Raiders acquired with their highest draft pick, a late 3^rd round compensatory pick for the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha in the prior offseason. Even if he can make his way into the starting lineup as a rookie, there’s no guarantee he’ll be an upgrade.

The Raiders do have some talent offensively and a full season from Darren McFadden will help, but I don’t think they’ll get it and I think they’re being held down by Carson Palmer. Palmer has led offenses to 19.7 points per game over his last 42 starts, including just 19.9 points per game in 10 starts last year. That would have ranked 24^th in the league last year and he’s only getting older. They should rank somewhere in the early 20s in terms of offensive scoring rank with about 19-21 points per game.

Grade: B

Defense

Defense is where the Raiders were hurt the most this offseason by their lack of picks and cap space. Not only were they unable to upgrade the league’s 29^th ranked scoring defense, 26.9 points per game, they also lost two more starters in Stanford Routt and Kamerion Wimbley, with the latter being their best defensive player. This comes one offseason after losing their former best defensive player, Nnamdi Asomugha.

Meanwhile, middle linebacker Rolando McClain is facing jail time and Richard Seymour, who might now be their best defensive player, is heading into his age 33 season, as Tommy Kelly heads into his age 32 season. They figure to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league again this year and they have a good chance to be even worse than they were last season.

Defensive Line

Though his base position was linebacker, where Kamerion Wimbley’s biggest absence will be felt is on the defensive line. Wimbley would come down and play defensive end on passing downs and had 6 sacks, 16 quarterback pressures, and 40 quarterback hits on 478 pass rush snaps last year, a rate of 13.0%. They don’t have anyone else like that and could struggle to get to the quarterback in 2012.

To make up for his loss, the Raiders signed Dave Tollefson and will get Matt Shaughnessy back after he missed all of last season except 3 games with injury. That’s not going to work out well. Tollefson was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated defensive end last season, mostly because he couldn’t get to the quarterback to save his life. Playing on a Giants defensive line loaded with guys to take attention off him, he managed just 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 355 pass rush snaps, good for a pathetic rate of 5.6%. He didn’t play the run well either.

Meanwhile, Matt Shaughnessy is coming off a major injury and has a history of injury problems. His specialty is playing the run, but he can get some pass rush as he had 8 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 290 pass rush snaps, a 10.0% rate, in 2010, his last full season. Those two will rotate with LaMarr Houston, who can also play some defensive tackle. A big defensive end at 6-3 305, Houston’s specialty is obviously stopping the run, but he can get some pass rush, with 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures on 384 pass rushes in 2011, a 8.9% rate.

Their best pass rushers are probably defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly. Seymour, ProFootballFocus’ 11^th rated defensive tackle, had 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures on 550 pass rush snaps last season, good for an 7.3% rate, impressive for a defensive tackle. He ranked 3^rd among defensive tackles as a pass rusher on ProFootballFocus and also played the run well.

Kelly, meanwhile, had 8 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 518 pass rushes, for a 6.6% rate. He ranked 8^th as a pass rusher at his position. The problems with Kelly and Seymour are that they are entering their age 32 and 33 seasons respectively and they both are often penalized. I mentioned this was a huge problem for the whole team. Seymour was penalized 11 times and Kelly 10, which ranked 1 and 2 among defensive tackles. No one else had more than 8.

The Raiders will also miss John Henderson, an incredible situational run stuffer, who ranked 5^th on ProFootballFocus at his position against the run. The top reserve will be Desmond Bryant, a solid run stopper, and LaMarr Houston could see some action there at his natural position now that they have some more defensive end depth. The Raiders also used a 6^th round pick on Christo Bilukidi to add some youth at defensive tackle, but he won’t have much of an impact this season. The same goes for 5^th round pick Jack Crawford, a defensive end, and Miles Burris, a 4^th round pick hybrid linebacker/defensive end.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Raiders likely drafted Burris, that hybrid linebacker/defensive end, with Kamerion Wimbley in mind, but for 2012, they’ll definitely miss Wimbley. Not only was he a great pass rusher, but he was a key part of their run defense as a linebacker. He ranked 3^rd at his position overall on ProFootballFocus. He’ll be replaced by Philip Wheeler, who was a solid two down run stuffer in Indianapolis last year, but guys like that are a dime a dozen.

Another linebacker the Raiders could miss in 2012 is Rolando McClain. McClain is facing a 180 day jail sentence for firing a gun shot near a man’s head. He’s currently appealing so it’s unknown when his sentence will start and how long it will actually be, but between that and a possible suspension from the NFL, he should miss at least part of this season.

He’s a solid player whose strengths are run stuffing and blitzing, though he struggles his coverage. He was ProFootballFocus’ 51^st ranked coverage linebacker out of 53, but 18^th as a run stuffer and he had 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures on 103 blitzes, good for a rate of 19.4%. Whenever he misses time, he’ll be replaced by 2010 5^th round pick Travis Goethel, who has played just 90 snaps in 2 seasons. He’ll obviously be missed.

The other outside linebacker is Aaron Curry. Curry was a major bust as the 4^th overall pick of the Seahawks’ in 2009, but a fresh start in Oakland led to him being a decent starter. He’s not a great player, but he can cover and stop the run solidly. He’ll be an every down linebacker next season, as will whoever starts at middle linebacker, freeing up Wheeler to focus on what he does best, stuffing the run as a two down run stuffer. However, they do look really thin at the position, especially with McClain likely to miss time. That would leave Curry as their best linebacker, which is not a position you want to be in.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

The Raiders didn’t do too badly in coverage last year, allowing 7.1 YPA, 15^th in the NFL, in their first season without Nnamdi Asomugha. That number is a little misleading though because they committed a lot of penalties, which don’t count towards the number, but hurt nonetheless. The reason they weren’t awful in coverage was because Stanford Routt had his best season and because of their strong pass rush, led by Kamerion Wimbley. Wimbley and Routt are gone now, however.

With no early picks and no cap space, the Raiders had to hit the bargain bin for starters at cornerback, signing Shawntae Spencer and Ronald Bartell. Spencer was once a starter in San Francisco, but didn’t play that well in that role. He opened last season as a nickel in San Francisco, but missed a lot of time with injuries and when he came back, he barely played. He played just 87 snaps last season.

Bartell, meanwhile, missed every game but 1 with a neck injury in St. Louis last year. He used to be a decent starter, so there’s some bounce back potential, but it’s never a good thing to have to sort through the bargain bin for cornerbacks in a pass heavy league. Competing with those two veterans for starting jobs will be 2011 3^rd and 4^th round picks DeMarcus Van Dyke and Chimdi Chekwa, who played 329 and 122 snaps respectively as rookies in 2011, and not well I might add.

Their secondary is saved by a talented duo of safeties. Both Michael Huff and Tyvon Branch are above average starters who have been given long term deals in the last two offseasons respectively. Huff and Branch will be relied on more than ever before in 2012 given their troubles at cornerback. They also liked to use 3-safety sets pretty often in sub packages last year, to combat their lack of cornerback depth. They may continue that this year, but it’s worth noting that their 3^rd safety, Matt Giordano, didn’t play well.

As you can see, the Raiders have been gutted of talent defensively in the last 2 offseasons, losing Kamerion Wimbley, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Stanford Routt. Meanwhile, Rolando McClain is facing a length jail sentence and/or suspension and their top defensive linemen, Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly, are over the hill. On top of all that, they haven’t had a 1^st round pick in the last 2 years and didn’t have a non-compensatory pick before the 5^th round this year. They also didn’t have a lot of cap room to work with. They ranked 29^th in the league defensively last year, allowing 26.9 points per game. They could be even worse this season.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Dennis Allen is incredibly inexperienced as far as Head Coaches go. He was Denver’s defensive coordinator for just 1 year (when they ranked just 24^th defensively I might add) and before that he had just 3 years experience as a head position coach, coaching the Saints’ secondary from 2008-2010. Before that, he was an assistant defensive line coach with the Saints for 2 years. He’s also a symbol of turmoil in the Raiders organization. The team has finally gotten to .500, going 8-8 in each of the last 2 seasons, but they’ve also fired their Head Coach after each season. That’s not good for team morale and continuity.

Grade: C

Overall

Simply put, this was a team that did not deserve to go 8-8 last year and now they’ve been gutted this offseason and couldn’t do much about it. They played like a 5 or 6 win team last year, but got lucky, going 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They also only played 6 playoff teams, going 2-4 in those 6 games and both wins were with Jason Campbell as quarterback.

Under Carson Palmer, the Raiders were actually pretty significantly worse offensively than under Jason Campbell. Some of that was Darren McFadden, some of that wasn’t, but he’s no sure thing to stay healthy either. Palmer is heading into his age 33 season and has been leading offenses to about 19 points per game over the last 3 seasons. Also heading into his age 33 season is Richard Seymour, while Tommy Kelly will turn 32. On a gutted defense, those are the leaders.

They’ll be mediocre offensively, awful defensively, and they have had a lot of roster and coaching staff turnover in the last 2 seasons, which will hurt their morale and continuity. They’ll be one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’re one of about 5 or 6 teams that could end up losing 13 or 14 games this season, but I have them doing so because of their tough schedule and because of the NFL’s parity. Every season since the NFL went to the new playoff format in 2002, there have been on average 4.4 teams with 6 points of parity per season (6 more wins or 6 more losses). I have San Francisco, St. Louis, and Washington and I need a 4^th team.

Meanwhile, their schedule will be really tough. I doubt they’ll play just 6 playoff teams again. Their division isn’t great, but I think all 3 teams are better than them and, outside the division, they play the NFC South and AFC North, two tough divisions. I think they could go 1-5 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Cleveland. 3 of those games seem pretty easy, but the Raiders are also going to be a pretty easy opponent.

Their non-divisional road games are at Miami, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Carolina. It’ll take some bad luck for them to go 2-14, but there’s not much difference between a 2 win and a 5 win team in the NFL. They played like a 5 or 6 win team last year and are much worse this season. They have an awful defense and will struggle to score points and keep up in shout outs, which will lead an aging and erratic Palmer to turn the ball over a lot. Anything from 2-6 wins would not shock me, but I have to put them at the lower end for a variety of reasons. That’s just how it works out.

Projection: 2-14 4^th in AFC West

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Kansas City Chiefs 2012 NFL Season Preview

August 1, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Offense

In 2010, the Chiefs made the playoffs, winning the AFC West with 10 victories. In 2011, they won just 7 games, but suffered major injuries to Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki, and Matt Cassel. Charles went down for the season week 2. Moeaki missed the entire year, as did Berry, with the exception of 5 snaps in the opener before tearing his ACL. Cassel, meanwhile, missed 7 games, forcing the completely incompetent Tyler Palko to start 4 games, before the mediocre Kyle Orton took over for the last 3.

Because of this, many are picking the Chiefs to be a bounce back candidate and potential “sleeper.” Doing so based only off the information stated in the first paragraph is flawed, for several reasons. One, while the Chiefs made the playoffs with 10 wins in 2010, they were not a deserving playoff team. They went just 2-5 against teams that were .500 or better, including playoffs, and 8-2 against teams that were sub .500.

One of their two wins came against the early season Chargers week 1, in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards and their 3 scores came on a long touchdown run, a pick six, and a punt return touchdown. The Chargers avenged that defeat with a 31-0 victory later in the season. The other came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were starting 3^rd string quarterback Todd Bauman. Their 5 losses, meanwhile, came by a combined 88 points. They also ranked just 17^th in the NFL in DVOA.

The second reason why the information in the first paragraph is not complete is that, while the Chiefs won 7 games last year, they did not play like a 7 win team. They had a Pythagorean Expectation of 4.0 wins, 29^th in the NFL, and ranked 26^th in DVOA. Since the NFL has gone to a 16 game schedule, teams who exceed their Pythagorean Expectation by 2 wins or more averaged 2.5 wins fewer the next season and teams who exceed it by 3 wins or more averaged 2.7 wins fewer the next season.

The guys they’ll be getting back from injury will help, but to say that they’re a 7 win team getting back 4 key contributors is not a complete statement. It’s also not a complete statement to say that they’re a team two seasons removed from winning a division title getting back 4 key contributors. Their win total has not been an accurate measure of their performance over the last 2 seasons.

Running Backs

Offensively, the Chiefs were 31^st in the league with 13.3 points per game last year. In order to turn things around, the Chiefs will be going back to a much more run heavy offense. They tried to do that in 2011, ranking 5^th in the league in rushing attempts, but they ranked just 15^th in rushing yards as they averaged just 3.9 YPC. That figure ranked 28^th in the NFL. With Jamaal Charles out, the trio of Thomas Jones, Jackie Battle, and Dexter McCluster just did not get it done.

In addition to getting Jamaal Charles back from injury, the Chiefs also signed Peyton Hillis to compliment him and Eric Winston to run block (more on their offensive line later). They have stated that their goal is to get their two backs 500 touches this season, which falls just shy of the 539 touches that Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles had in 2010, but would still rank among the league leaders.

It’s possible that the Chiefs will be even more efficient on the ground this year than in 2012 because Hillis, even if he doesn’t bounce back off a disappointing season in 2011, is an obvious upgrade over an aged Thomas Jones, who averaged just 3.7 YPC and caught just 14 passes in 2010. Meanwhile, former Head Coach Todd Haley is gone, which means the obviously more talented of the two backs, Charles, will lead the team in carries and get significantly more touches (could be something like a 300-200 split). In 2010, Charles averaged 6.4 YPC, almost an NFL record, but managed just 230 carries to Jones’ 245, even though Jones was averaging 3.7 YPC. Charles barely had more overall touches, leading Jones in that category 275 to 259. That was inexcusable. The Chiefs have also upgraded the offensive line.

However, the one thing holding back the Chiefs’ running game from being more efficient than the 4.7 YPC it averaged in 2010 is actually Charles himself. Charles almost set an NFL record, averaging 6.4 YPC in 2010. That’s a very unrepeatable figure, especially for someone coming off a torn ACL. The Chiefs also won’t have the fortunate of playing 12 of their games against teams that ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run, like they did in 2010. They’ll still be a good running team, but predicting the running game to carry the team to the playoffs like they did in 2010 is a flawed prediction.

Grade: A-

Quarterback

A strong running game really made life easier for Matt Cassel in 2010, which is why they were able to win 10 games (that and a weak schedule). In addition to a tougher schedule, I also don’t expect Cassel to be as good this season as he was in 2010, even with an improved running game. One statistic jumps out for me about Cassel’s 2010 season and that’s his 27-7 TD-INT ratio.

When looking at his career, that’s an obvious outlier. In the rest of his career, his TD-INT ratio is 49-38. It’s definitely possible that outlier was caused by the easy schedule, in addition to just fluke luck. Including playoffs, his TD-INT ratio was just 5-6 against teams that finished .500 or better. On top of that, turnovers are very tough to predict on a yearly basis.

The 2010 Chiefs had 14 turnovers. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. Backing up that number, the Chiefs turned the ball over 28 times in 2011. That’s not the fluke. The 14 turnovers is. A full season of Cassel will help a little bit, but not much.

Other than the TD-INT ratio, the rest of Cassel’s stats were pretty in line with his career averages in 2010. He completed just 58.2% of his passes, actually slightly less than his career average of 59.0%, and he averaged just 6.9 YPA, slightly up from his career average of 6.6 YPA. Those figures will probably be close to repeated for Cassel in 2012, but his TD-INT ratio will be more in line with that 49-38 figure rather than the 27-7 figure, even with a better running game and especially with a tougher schedule.

The Chiefs will struggle to move the ball through the air and, no matter how good their running game is, they’ll still be a subpar offensive team because of it. They averaged just 15.7 points per game in the 9 games that Cassel started last year so their horrible 13.3 points per game figure was not solely the fault of Palko and Orton. With an improved running game, they’ll be better than 15.7 points per game, but not a whole lot.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

Onto the offensive line now, which I’ve mentioned before. As I’ve alluded to, the Chiefs’ offensive line will be an improved group in 2012 over 2010 and over 2011. In 2010, they were ProFootballFocus’ 16^th ranked run blocking offensive line and ranked 24^th in pass blocking efficiency. In 2011, they ranked 5^th in pass blocking efficiency, but 27^th as run blockers. In 2012, I expect them to run block and pass block well.

One of the reasons for this is the addition of Eric Winston at right tackle. Incumbent right tackle Barry Richardson ranked 72^nd out of 73 offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus, allowing 8 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures, while committing 9 penalties and ranking dead last at his position as a run blocker. Running off the right tackle, the Chiefs averaged just 2.6 YPC last season, which is pathetic even on a team that averaged just 3.9 YPC total.

He’s gone and will be replaced by Eric Winston, who ranked 14^th among offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus, pass blocking and run blocking well, allowing 7 sacks, but just 2 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures, while committing 9 penalties, the only weakness in his game. He’s no one hit wonder either, ranking in the top-14 at his position in each of the last 3 seasons. He’s consistent and he’ll be an obvious upgrade.

One of the reasons that the Chiefs got so much better at pass blocking in 2011 from 2010 was the emergence of left tackle Branden Albert as a legitimate blindside protector. Once the 15^th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, Albert was looking like a bust who would be best served at right tackle or guard before last year, when he allowed just 5 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures. 10 penalties are an issue, but he ranked 8^th at his position as a pass blocker and was a decent run blocker.

This was obviously an upgrade over his first 3 seasons, when he combined to allow 23 sacks, 24 quarterback hits, and 69 quarterback pressures, while committing 23 penalties in 45 starts. He ranked 33^rd at his position in 2008, 64^th in 2009, and 35^th in 2010. I think he can continue his strong play into the future and Eric Winston replacing Barry Richardson at right tackle only helps matters on the offensive line as they attempt to pass protect for Matt Cassel.

Right guard Jon Asamoah is also a great pass protector, ranking 5^th at his position in that aspect, allowing just 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures. He was a terrible run blocker though, ranking 69^th out of 76 players at his position in that area of his game. Still, he’s a solid starter who graded out above average overall. Long time center Casey Wiegmann is gone, but he’ll be replaced by 2011 2^nd round pick Rodney Hudson, who was decent in limited action as a rookie.

Meanwhile, left guard Ryan Lilja is the weak link of the offensive line, but I don’t know if you can even call him that as the soon to be 31 year old is still a solid player. He’ll be pushed for his job by 2^nd round rookie Jeff Allen, but it’s more likely that Allen begins his career as a 6^th offensive lineman, while Lilja starts. I thought Allen was a reach in the 2^nd round, but his versatility can’t be questioned as he played every position except center at Illinois.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

On paper, the Chiefs have a strong receiving corps and could possibly have the best receiving corps they’ve had in the last 3 years. From 2010 to 2011, they added Jonathan Baldwin in the 1^st round of the draft and Steve Breaston in free agency, though they lost tight end Tony Moeaki for the season in the preseason. From 2011 to 2012, they’ll get Moeaki back and Baldwin has been having a great offseason as he heads into his 2^nd season in the league.

The issue is that Dwayne Bowe, their unquestioned best receiver, has yet to sign his franchise tender. It’s unclear what he hopes to gain by skipping camp, as he can be fined and can’t be signed long term anymore. He’s also missing out on valuable practice time with a new coaching staff coming in and guys are impressing in his absence. He’s had a great 5 years since being a 1^st round pick in 2007, catching 356 passes for 4927 yards and 36 touchdowns in 75 games, despite inconsistent quarterback play. He’s also played in all 16 games in 4 of 5 seasons. However, he’s hurting himself by missing Training Camp with a new coaching staff coming in, so he could have a down year, especially if he continues to miss more time. There’s currently no timetable for his return.

One of the guys impressing in his absence is Jonathan Baldwin, a 2011 1^st round pick. Baldwin didn’t do much as a rookie, catching just 21 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown, but rookie receivers tend to struggle. Discounting Julio Jones and AJ Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns.

And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. The leader in rookie production among those 22, ironically Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007.

Baldwin could definitely have a much better year in 2012, though it’ll be tough for him to have a statistical breakout year with other guys around him to compete for targets with and on not a very good passing offense. He could compete with Breaston for a starting job and, at the very least, he’ll play outside opposite Bowe in 3-wide receiver sets, where Breaston moves to the slot. Breaston caught 61 passes for 785 yards and 2 touchdowns last year, but his knees always remain an issue. He’s been tough though, only missing 4 games in the last 3 seasons and playing in all 16 last year.

Another player with injury issues is Tony Moeaki. Moeaki tore his ACL last offseason and missed the entire season, leaving bums like Leonard Pope, Anthony Becht, and Jake O’Connell to split time at tight end in his absence. He caught 47 passes for 556 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2010, as a mere 3^rd round pick rookie, so he’ll definitely be a welcome return to their receiving corps. The one issue with him is that his injury problems date back to his days at Iowa, so it’s very possible he could sustain some sort of injury again this season. With that in mind, the Chiefs signed Kevin Boss, a decent pass catcher and solid blocker, as insurance. Boss will also come in on two-tight end sets if Moeaki can stay healthy.

The Chiefs definitely do have talent offensively, but they’re limited by the play of Matt Cassel, a mediocre quarterback at best. Cassel played well in 2010, which led to this team winning the division and making the playoffs, but that was largely the result of an easy schedule and a fluky TD-INT ratio. He won’t play that well in 2012, even though he’ll have a strong running game and supporting cast backing him once again, and that will limit the Chiefs’ potential both offensively and as a team.

Grade: B+

Defense

The Chiefs have a solid group defensively, which has ranked 11^th (20.4 points per game) and 12^th (21.1 points per game) in the last two seasons respectively. They’ll have a strong bunch again in 2012, but, while they have added players offensively this offseason like Hillis and Winston, the Chiefs suffered a major loss defensively, losing Brandon Carr and replacing him with the significantly inferior Stanford Routt.

They do get Eric Berry back from injury and he could have a very good season in his 3^rd year in the league, while 2^nd year linebacker Justin Houston has the look of a budding star. They’ll be a good defense, but not the top-10 defense that will be required for a team that figures to score under 20 per game to be competitive in 2012.

Defensive Line

The Chiefs have a trio of highly drafted players on their 3 man defensive line. Their defensive ends are Tyson Jackson, 3^rd overall in 2009, and Glenn Dorsey, 5^th overall in 2008, while nose tackle Dontari Poe was the 11^th overall pick back in April’s 2012 NFL Draft. However, despite their high draft slots, Jackson and Dorsey have disappointed to this point in their career. You can’t really categorize them as busts, because they’re above average starters, but you’re not looking for just above average starters in the top 5.

Both are great against the run, with Dorsey ranking 1^st and Jackson ranking 6^th on ProFootballFocus among 3-4 defensive ends as run stuffers. However, neither offers anything as pass rushers, ranking 29^th and 26^th respectively in that regard among 32 players at their position. Dorsey and Jackson combined for 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures on a combined 469 pass rush snaps, good for a pathetic 2.1% pass rush rate. This is a big part of the reason why the Chiefs managed a mere 29 sacks last year. They’re still above average starters, but it’s worth noting that they’re one dimensional.

2011 3^rd round pick Allen Bailey will rotate with them and have a bigger role this season as a situational pass rusher. However, he can only sub in for one of them at a time on passing downs, unlike last year when they had Wallace Gilberry. With Gilberry gone, 4^th on the depth chart at 3-4 defensive end is Brandon Bair, a 2011 undrafted free agent who has never played a snap in the NFL.

Bailey is also still a projection as he’s so inexperienced. He played well in limited action last year, playing 294 snaps, 225 of which were pass rush snaps, and recording 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures, good for a solid 4.9% pass rush rate, which is certainly better than Dorsey and Jackson. He also played the run well, but he’s still no sure thing transitioning to a bigger role and he’s definitely still unproven.

Poe, meanwhile, was immediately made the starting nose tackle after the Chiefs took him 11^th overall in April. Incumbent Kelly Gregg played well, but he’s still unsigned and will probably retire. Poe is incredibly athletic with 4.9 speed at 6-4 340 with the ability to put up 44 reps of 225 on the bench. He also didn’t produce in college despite playing for Memphis in the weak C-USA. Some of that was the scheme, some of that was him. He’s faster than quick, a straight line athlete, and he doesn’t always play up to his size. I think he’ll bust and, at the very least, he’ll struggle as a rookie since he’s so raw and because he’s never faced anything like NFL competition. If he ever plays well, it’ll almost definitely be in 2013 and beyond.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs may have had a mere 29 sacks last season, but you can’t blame Tamba Hali for that. Hali turned in another strong season, ranking 4^th on ProFootballFocus among rush linebackers and producing 12 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures on 459 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.7%. He’s been good for years, but he’s never really had much help.

In 2010, he had 19 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 68 quarterback pressures on 583 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.9%. The Chiefs did manage 46 sacks, including playoffs, but nickel rusher Wallace Gilberry with 7 was the only other player on the team with more than 3. In 2009, he had 9 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 449 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 12.9%, but only Gilberry with 6 had more than 2 and the Chiefs managed 26 as a team. They haven’t had another good pass rusher in years in the starting lineup.

That could change this year. The Chiefs used a 3^rd round pick on Justin Houston in the 2011 NFL Draft and he could prove to be a steal. Houston has 1^st round talent and was frequently projected there before news of his failed Combine drug test surfaced. Houston appears to have put that behind him. He worked his way into the starting lineup last season and had 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 207 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.6%.

He played every snap except one from week 11 on and had most of his production in those 7 games, with 6 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures. It’s no coincidence that the Chiefs had 20 of their 29 sacks in those 7 games. As a full time starter in 2012, he could approach double digit sacks and his presence in the lineup as a 2^nd pass rush threat will make this a much better pass rush. They won’t be elite or anything because they can’t get much pass rush from the defensive line and they don’t have a 3^rd pass rusher, but they should be improved.

The one issue with Houston is that the Chiefs love dropping the opposite rush linebacker into coverage. When Mike Vrabel was the starter, that made sense because he could cover as well as he could pass rush, but Justin Houston is terrible in coverage and a great pass rusher. They have to find some way that he doesn’t have to drop into coverage as much as he did last year, when he dropped on 163 snaps, as opposed to 207 pass rushes. Hali doesn’t cover well either.

Inside, the Chiefs have another stud, middle linebacker Derrick Johnson. Johnson is one of the best in the league at his position, ranking 4^th on ProFootballFocus. He doesn’t get the recognition of guys like Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Ray Lewis and Brian Cushing, but he ranked right behind the top 3 and ahead of Cushing. He’s ranked in the top-5 in each of the last 2 seasons, something only Patrick Willis can also say and in 2009 he was 13^th despite for some reason only playing 344 snaps in 15 games (one of Todd Haley’s dumbest decisions ever and that’s saying something). Before that, he was an outside linebacker in a 4-3.

Next to him, the Chiefs have Jovan Belcher. Apparently no one knows who he is because middle linebacker Luke Kuechly was often mocked to the Chiefs at 11^th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft, but he’s actually a solid starter. He struggles in coverage, but as a two down run stuffing linebacker, he gets the job done and well. He ranked 19^th at his position against the run.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

The Chiefs used to have two stud cornerbacks. That’s no longer the case. Brandon Flowers is still in town, but Brandon Carr is gone. Flowers is the better of the two cornerbacks, but that doesn’t really make Carr’s loss any easier. Last season, Carr allowed 39 completions on 79 attempts (49.4%) for 511 yards (6.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 5 penalties.

Flowers is more valuable because he covers #1 receivers and because he’s more consistent. He’s been a top-8 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis can also say. Last year was his worst year as he ranked 8^th and though he did play really well, he also surrendered some big plays. He allowed 46 completions on 86 attempts (53.5%) for 667 yards (7.8 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 5 penalties. He needs to eliminate some of the bigger plays in 2012, but I think he should have another fantastic season.

Opposite him, the Chiefs have signed Stanford Routt. Routt bounced back off a year in which he ranked 88^th out of 100 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus in 2010 by allowing just 51.1% completion in 2011 as the #1 cornerback in Oakland (48 completions on 94 attempts). He also allowed just 532 yards (5.7 YPA), deflected 10 passes, and picked off 4. However, he surrendered a league leading 9 touchdowns and committed a league leading 17 penalties. He ranked 78^th out of 98 cornerbacks and is a clear downgrade from Carr.

One thing that will definitely help mask the absence of Carr is the return of Eric Berry. Berry, the 5^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, had a strong rookie year. He didn’t deserve to go to the Pro Bowl, but he did play well, especially for a rookie. However, he was never allowed to have the breakout year many felt was coming in 2011 because he tore his ACL 5 snaps into the season. In 2012, he’s fully recovered and could have the type of year many envisioned last season. He could finish the season among the league’s best safeties and make the Pro Bowl, deservingly this time. He’ll certainly be better than guys like Jon McCraw, Donald Washington, Travis Daniels, and Sabby Piscitelli, all of whom attempted to replace him last year. They all failed miserably.

The other safety is Kendrick Lewis, who proved to be a decent starter in Berry’s absence. Javier Arenas will be the nickel cornerback and he does a solid job. In dime sets, rather than using 4 cornerbacks and 2 safeties, the Chiefs enjoy using a 3^rd safety. They signed the veteran Abram Elam for that purpose, as well as to provide insurance for Berry. He’s a mediocre starter, but you do a lot worse for a depth safety.

The loss of Brandon Carr will hurt, but the return of Berry and an improved pass rush will help. The Chiefs definitely still have talent defensively and should rank close to where they have in the last 2 seasons, when they’ve ranked 11^th and 12^th in points per game allowed and allowed in the 20-21 points per game range. However, in order to be a competitive playoff team, they’ll have to score in that range as well and I don’t think they can do that. Last year, they scored just 13.3 points per game and while upgrades in the offensive line and running game, as well as guys returning from injury, will help, they are still limited by their quarterback.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

The Chiefs finished last season 2-1 after firing Todd Haley, beating previously undefeated Green Bay and Denver, who would go on to defeat the Steelers in the playoffs the following week. Interim Head Coach Romeo Crennel has gotten the interim label taken off and will be the full time Head Coach. However, I don’t think he can continue that success.

For one, that’s a small sample size. Two, I don’t think their inspired play late last season was as much a response to Crennel becoming Head Coach as it was to Todd Haley, who the players did not like, being fired. Crennel was 24-40 in 4 seasons in Cleveland. He’s not a very good Head Coach and, while he’s excellent as a defensive coordinator (which he’ll continue to do this season), I don’t think he’ll be a positive to this team as their Head Coach. On top of that, splitting duties between coordinating the defense and being a Head Coach, especially in your first full year as Head Coach, can hurt your performance in both areas.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Chiefs’ win total has not been an accurate measure of their talent over the last 2 seasons. That could continue to be the case this season, but it’s unlikely and I won’t predict it. It’s sad that Matt Cassel is holding up the team because they have a solid defense, a good offensive line and receiving corps, and they can run the ball really well. However, if you don’t have a quarterback in this league, you won’t get far.

Aside from his fluke TD-INT ratio in 2010, Cassel has been a career 59.0% pass completer who averages just 6.6 YPA and 49 touchdowns to 38 interceptions. Excluding the fluky 2010 figure, his 16 game averages over the last 4 seasons are 297 completions on 503 attempts (59.0%) for 3330 yards (6.6 YPA), 19 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions and that’s factoring in a year in New England, where everything was easy for him. This team averaged 15.7 points per game last year with Cassel completing 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA and 10 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. That’s what we can expect from Cassel this year.

They are fortunate to have an easy division, but I think they’ll go 2-4 in the division as Denver and San Diego are both clearly better than them. Oakland has the better quarterback too, but their supporting cast is a mess. Outside the division, they host Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Indianapolis. Having to face the NFC South and AFC North is no picnic.

They should go around 2-3 or 3-2 in those games at home as Atlanta is a bad road team and the final 3 teams are not that hard. Meanwhile, they go to Buffalo, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. New Orleans and Pittsburgh seem unwinnable on the road, while Buffalo will be better than people think, as will Tampa Bay. Cleveland is the only really easy road game they have. With that schedule, 5 or 6 wins is realistic.

Projection: 6-10 3^rd in AFC West

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Month: August 2012

Miami Dolphins 2012 NFL Season Preview

Vikings’ rookie Greg Childs likely out for the year with knee injuries

New York Jets 2012 NFL Season Preview

Buffalo Bills 2012 NFL Season Preview

New England Patriots 2012 NFL Season Preview

Indianapolis Colts trade CB Kevin Thomas and a 7th round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for MLB Moise Fukou and MLB Greg Lloyd

Oakland Raiders 2012 NFL Season Preview

Kansas City Chiefs 2012 NFL Season Preview