Nick Foles to win primary backup job for Eagles?

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Eagles, News

When Mike Kafka, the 2010 4^th round pick who was expected to be the Eagles’ primary backup this season, went down with a hand injury, it opened the door for Nick Foles, a 3^rd round pick rookie originally viewed as a developmental 3^rd string quarterback for this season, to become the Eagles’ primary backup. Foles has been just that in the Eagles’ first 2 preseason games and has definitely impressed, leading all quarterbacks in passing rating for the preseason, completing 24 of 38 (63.2%) for 361 (9.5 YPA) yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception, a QB rating of 118.4. Foles has definitely given himself a strong chance to remain the Eagles’ 2^nd string quarterback when games count for real.

Foles has come in for an injured Michael Vick in each of the Eagles’ first 2 preseason games as well, as minor hand and rib injuries have knocked him out of the first two preseason games respectively. He’ll be fine for week 1, but it’s just a reminder that Vick is arguably the most injury prone quarterback in the league. In 9 seasons, he’s played all 16 games just once and it’s gotten worse as he’s gotten older. Now heading into his age 32 season, Vick has missed 7 games in the last 2 seasons combined.

Foles will start for Vick in the Eagles’ 3^rd preseason game this week, as Vick is unlikely to play another preseason game, and, assuming Foles wins the job, he’ll probably have to make a few starts this season. If he does, the Eagles should be fine, as long as it’s not too extended of a period. He probably won’t play quite this well, but Andy Reid has a way of making quarterbacks look better than they are (Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, etc.).

Besides, he has arguably the best supporting cast in the league too as the Eagles possess a deep receiving corps, and top 5, if not top 3 running back, and a still above average offensive line, even after the loss of Jason Peters. Defensively, they have one of the best defensive lines in the league, one of the top cornerbacks in the league (Nnamdi Asomugha) and another one with some bounce back potential (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). Their safeties and linebackers aren’t great, but they’ll be better than they were last season. If anything, Vick is what’s holding up this team.

In the long term, Foles projects as a possible successor to Michael Vick or possible trade chip for Andy Reid. Flipping quarterbacks that he makes look better than they are to unsuspecting teams is one of Reid’s favorite things to do (cut to Cardinals fans nodding sadly). Kafka, meanwhile, will find himself on the roster bubble come final cuts and will need the Eagles to keep 3 quarterbacks to make the roster.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Cedric Benson is “probable” week 1 starter for Packers

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie News, Packers

After going with a youth movement at running back for the entire offseason, the Packers caved earlier this month and signed veteran running back Cedric Benson after injury prone youngster James Starks suffered a turf toe injury, on top of a rough Training Camp and preseason, that threatened his availability for the regular season. As could be expected, the Packers are likely to start Benson at running back week 1, according to a report from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, which calls him the “probable” week 1 starter.

Starks, an injury prone player dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo, is highly questionable for the regular season opener and may even be on the roster bubble, while Alex Green, a 2011 3^rd round pick who carried the ball just 3 times last season before an ACL tear, will probably only be a change of pace and 3^rd down back. In that role, he should compliment Benson well.

Even though they lack running back talent, the Packers have a good offensive line and a great passing game so all the backs will really need to do is protect the football and run through holes. Benson should be able to do that. The passing game and offensive line will make them look better than they are and then they’ll do the rest on what figures to once again be one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

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Junior Galette to start in absence of Will Smith for Saints

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie News, Saints

Will Smith, the Saints’ leading pass rusher on the defensive line last season, has been suspended for the first 4 games of the season for his role in the Saints’ bounty scandal. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate.

New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1^st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. The Saints desperately need Galette to step up as a starting caliber defensive end, not just for this season, but for the future. Smith is owed a whopping 9 million in 2013, his age 32 season, and he’s very unlikely to see that money unless he can have a major bounce back season this year, unlikely since he’ll only play 12 games max. If Galette cannot emerge as a successor, they’ll probably have to use an early pick on a defensive end in the 2013 NFL Draft, for the 2^nd time in 3 years.

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Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew: “things will work out”

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Jaguars, News

A day after a spat between Maurice Jones-Drew, the league’s leading rusher in 2011, and Jaguars’ owner Shahid Khan went public and ended with MJD saying that he would welcome a trade, things seem to have calmed down and any talks of his holdout lasting into the regular season seem premature. In an interview with NFL.com, MJD appeared confident, saying “things will work out.” He also went on to say that he would draft himself #1 overall in fantasy leagues, though he did mention that drafting Rashad Jennings as a handcuff would be a good idea.

MJD is obviously upset with his contract, but the Jaguars have maintained a position the whole time that they won’t talk with him about a new deal. Players threaten all the team to hold out into the season, but only in rare cases do they actually follow through. MJD will probably eventually realize that he has nothing to gain, if he hasn’t already, and report for week 1, but he’ll make Jaguars fans and his fantasy owners sweat first.

Even if he does report before week 1, which seems likely, I’d stay away from him in the 1^st round of fantasy drafts. He’s missed an entire offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and may have gotten out of shape. The former is the bigger concern and the whole situation has many similarities to Chris Johnson, who really struggled last season after his holdout, especially early in the season. Like Johnson, MJD has a bunch of touches over the last 3 years (Johnson had 1062, MJD has 1084), normally the sign of a disappointing year for a back anyway.

As for Rashad Jennings, I wouldn’t draft him unless I already had Maurice Jones Drew on my team. He’s a definitely valuable handcuff, but he’s only worth his current ADP in the 9^th round as a handcuff. As for the Jaguars’ offense as a whole, they should struggle once again unless Blaine Gabbert’s decent play in the preseason carries over to the regular season. Any improvement in Gabbert’s game from his rookie year to this year will be nullified by a likely decline in play from MJD, who accounted for 47.7% of their yards last season, by far more than any non-quarterback in the NFL last season.

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New England Patriots extend DT Kyle Love

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Patriots

The Patriots essentially bought out Kyle Love’s exclusive rights year and restricted free agency year by giving him this 2 year, 3.09 million dollar deal. Love, a 2010 undrafted free agent, was set to make $540,000 this season and somewhere between 1-2 million in 2013 under a restricted free agent tender, so the Patriots are probably giving him more money than he ordinarily would have made, without getting him under team control for an extra year.

It’s tough to figure out what the Patriots were trying to accomplish with this deal, especially with someone like Love, a solid run stuffer and a versatility rotational player, but a one dimensional player who doesn’t do anything in terms of rushing the passer. He had just 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures on 384 pass rush snaps last season, including playoffs (5.0%). Unless he has a major breakout year this year, I don’t get the purpose of this deal, but he’s not overpaid or anything.

Grade: B

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Cardinals’ Beanie Wells still having trouble cutting in practice

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Though Beanie Wells had what was called minor knee surgery way back in January, he has yet to play in a preseason game. An injury prone player who apparently is a slow healer, Wells is reportedly still struggling to cut in practice, according to XTRA 910 Arizona’s Mike Jurecki. In spite of this, Wells is expected to suit up for his 1^st preseason game this week, but will see limited reps like Ryan Williams, also coming off a knee injury, did last week.

Wells is definitely no sure thing to play all 16 games this season and with a talented backup in Ryan Williams behind him, it’s definitely possible he could lose his starting job or at least significant carries this season, possibly even early in the season. Williams, a 2011 2^nd round pick coming off a knee injury that cost him all of 2011, has looked very good in practice and rushed for 25 yards on 5 carries last week in his first preseason action. He’s a nice fantasy sleeper in the mid to late rounds if you can get him there. Wells, meanwhile, is being overdrafted with a 7^th round ADP.

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Short suspension for Titans’ Kenny Britt?

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie News, Titans

Kenny Britt has been arrested 8 times in his NFL career thus far, after going in the 1^st round in 2009. He would have been suspended last season if it hasn’t been for Roger Goodell’s decision to excuse any arrests that happened during the lockout, during which Britt was arrested 3 times. However, after a recent DUI, Britt is expecting a suspension after a 2^nd visit to the commissioner’s office in the last year. Everyone else is pretty much expecting the same thing, that Britt will be suspended.

However, while ESPN’s Adam Schefter expects him to suspended, he doesn’t expect it to be a very long suspension. Schefter says that it “doesn’t sound like it’s going to be as significant as it could’ve been” and is expecting a 1-3 game suspension for Britt. Britt has also had 3 knee surgeries in the last year, but he’s been impressing on the side and while he probably won’t play in any preseason games, he’s expected to be ready for the opener, though of course, that could be a moot point if Britt is suspended for the opener.

Expect Britt to be suspended for a couple games and by then, he should be healthy and ready to return. There’s always the chance he reinjures himself or doesn’t have his old explosiveness after 3 knee procedures (2 of which were minor, for what it’s worth), but he’s an incredibly talented receiver and he’s still only 23 (24 on September 19^th).

He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, despite playing with largely mediocre quarterbacking, Kerry Collins, Rusty Smith, Vince Young, and Matt Hasselbeck. Jake Locker has the upside to be by far the best quarterback Britt has ever had throwing him the football. He’s worth the risk as a mid round sleeper in fantasy leagues.

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Eagles’ DeSean Jackson admits to not giving 100% last season

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Eagles, News

DeSean Jackson had a down season last year, catching just 58 passes for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns, his lowest yardage total since his rookie year in 2008, on an overall disappointing Eagles team. Many theorized that Jackson was dogging it because he was unhappy with his contract situation and Jackson essentially admitted as much earlier this week, saying “I let it get to me, even though I tried not to let it. I was trying to protect myself from getting hurt; now I’m just giving it all.”

While it’s definitely concerning that Jackson would give less than 100% over a whole season, it’s a testament to his talent that he was able to produce numbers better than most receivers even when he wasn’t giving it his all. Now that he has his contract situation under control, after the Eagles gave him a 5 year, 47 million dollar deal earlier this offseason, Jackson should be back to his 2009-2010 form. During those two seasons, he posted lines of 62/1156/9 and 47/1056/6. Though he has Jeremy Maclin to steal plenty of targets opposite him, Jackson is not exactly a volume receiver with a career 17.8 YPC.

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Lions keeping an eye on free agent running backs

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions have a talented trio of backs in Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, and Kevin Smith, but that trio also happens to be incredibly injury prone. Best is expected to start the season on the PUP and miss at least 6 games as he recovers from concussions suffered last season. He might not be able to play at all this season. Leshoure, meanwhile, is coming off a torn Achilles and has yet to play in a preseason game. Smith has suffered several injuries in his career as well, which have limited him to 106 carries in the last 2 seasons.

Behind them on the depth chart, all the Lions have is Keiland Williams, a mediocre 2010 undrafted free agent who has a career average of 3.7 YPC on 123 career carries. For this reason, it’s no surprise that the Lions are keeping an eye on free agent running backs. They were tied to Cedric Benson before he signed with division rival Green Bay earlier this month.

After him, the most obvious veteran running back left on the market for them would be Ryan Grant, but it’s telling that the Packers decided to sign Benson rather than resigning Grant, who was familiar with the team and the system. As he heads into his age 30 season, he might be done. While no deal seems imminent, the Lions have brought in several backs for visits and could sign one of them during the season if Leshoure or Smith gets hurt again.

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Chargers lose Vincent Brown for at least 8 weeks with a broken ankle

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Chargers, News

A popular fantasy sleeper for the 2012 NFL season, Vincent Brown, may have had his season end before it even started as Brown broke his ankle in last week’s preseason game. The Chargers are optimistic that he can play this season and will not put him on IR, but an 8 week prognosis (which would have him return around week 5 or 6) seems awfully optimistic for such a major injury. If he’s still unable to go by midseason, the Chargers may just cut their losses and put him on IR to free up the roster spot.

This leaves the Chargers with Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Eddie Royal at wide receiver. Floyd, now heading into his age 31 season, has missed 9 games in the last 2 seasons and in the 23 games he has played, he’s been very inconsistent, catching 3 or fewer passes in 14 of them. He’s totaled 80 catches for 1573 yards and 11 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons, but he’s failed to establish himself as a #1 receiver in the past, when given the opportunity.

Meachem, meanwhile, has struggled in the preseason and training camp and did not deserve the 4 year, 25.9 million dollar deal he was given this offseason. The 2007 1^st round pick never exceeded 45 catches in a season, despite having Drew Brees throwing him the football. It’s possible the Saints were underutilizing and or incorrectly utilizing him, but it’s really not like the Saints to do something like that.

Royal, meanwhile, also has an injury history and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008, his rookie year. In the last 3 seasons, he’s caught just 115 passes for 1127 yards and 4 touchdowns and is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Last year, he missed 4 games and was limited in countless others with injuries and managed to catch just 19 passes for 155 yards and a score. Brown, a 2011 3^rd round pick, who was pushing Meachem for a starting job and Royal for the slot job, will definitely be missed.

As for Philip Rivers, he should be fine. Elite quarterbacks find a way to succeed in spite of poor supporting casts. Rivers threw for 4710 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2010 despite guys like Patrick Crayton, Legedu Naanee, Seyi Ajirotutu, Craig Davis, and Randy McMichael all seeing significant action in place of Floyd, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates. Gates is healthier than he’s been in 2 years and should have one last great season in him and should lead the team in receiving.

As for Rivers’ down year in 2011, I’m not too worried. He was much better in the 2^nd half, with 16 touchdowns to 6 interception, as opposed to 11 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in the 1^st half of the season, and his interception total of 20 should prove to be a fluke. Eli Manning threw 25 interceptions in 2010. He wasn’t too bad in 2011 from what I hear.

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Football Fan Spot

A site for football fans

Month: August 2012

Nick Foles to win primary backup job for Eagles?

Cedric Benson is “probable” week 1 starter for Packers

Junior Galette to start in absence of Will Smith for Saints

Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew: “things will work out”

New England Patriots extend DT Kyle Love

Cardinals’ Beanie Wells still having trouble cutting in practice

Short suspension for Titans’ Kenny Britt?

Eagles’ DeSean Jackson admits to not giving 100% last season

Lions keeping an eye on free agent running backs

Chargers lose Vincent Brown for at least 8 weeks with a broken ankle