Last week: 19 (+6)

Record: 1-0

This is the 2^nd straight controversial ranking. I had the 49ers missing the playoffs before the season and the Rams making it. I don’t want to repeat myself with the reason, but basically it was because the Rams would have better injury luck, better coaching, and the addition of guys through free agency, while the 49ers would struggle to maintain their +28 turnover differential and would have worse luck defensively, where they suffered almost no injuries and had 9 or 10 guys have breakout years.

I’ve watched enough seasons to know you can’t have consistent success without a franchise quarterback. You can have one good year or one great year, but even the best defensive teams struggle to consistently have good seasons without a true franchise quarterback. The best example I can think of is the Ravens from the pre Flacco-Harbaugh days (12 wins, 10 wins, 7 wins, 10 wins, 9 wins, 6 wins, 13 wins, 5 wins).

So what could derail that whole prediction? If Alex Smith becomes a franchise quarterback. If a full offseason in Jim Harbaugh’s system and new receiving threats improbably turns Alex Smith into to a franchise quarterback at age 28. He certainly looked the part against Green Bay, but Green Bay also blew numerous coverages, couldn’t get any pressure, couldn’t stop the run, and made life very easy for him.

The Packers also had a very high turnover differential last season. I thought they’d be fine defensively because of the addition of 3 key contributors through the draft and bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams, but if that’s not the case, the Packers figure to have one of the worst defenses in the league this year (even worse than last year, because they probably won’t be able to force as many turnovers) and Alex Smith’s performance makes perfect sense.

I’m putting the 49ers here with the acknowledgement that I could be proven wrong in the next few weeks and have to put the 49ers in the top-5 or higher. I’d rather be wrong than flip flop because I think I’m wrong and find out eventually that I was right in the first place. At the end of the day, I believe there’s only so much you can learn week 1. It’s for that reason, along with my out there beginning of the season predictions (understanding this is a parity league and if you predict the same thing as last year, you can’t possibly be right) that my week 2 power rankings often confuse people every year. The 49ers had an impressive win and I was surprised and my confident pick of the Packers was wrong. This is the biggest jump a single team makes this week for that reason.

Studs

QB Alex Smith: 20 of 26 for 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, throw away, 1 drop, 108.8 adjusted QB rating, 7 pressured dropbacks

RG Alex Boone: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures allowed on 34 pass block plays, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 carries

C Jonathan Goodwin: 1 quarterback pressures allowed on 34 pass block plays, run blocked for 27 yards on 5 carries

RB Frank Gore: 112 yards (84 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 carries, 4 broken tackles, 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 target

WR Michael Crabtree: 7 catches for 76 yards on 8 targets on 29 pass plays, 6.6 YAC per catch

TE Vernon Davis: 3 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets on 31 pass plays, run blocked for 35 yards on 4 carries

MLB Navarro Bowman: 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops on 15 run plays, allowed 5 catches for 42 yards on 8 targets, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

K David Akers: 6 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 70.8 yards per kickoff, 21.3 average start distance, 3/3 FG (40, 43, 63)

Duds

LT Joe Staley: Allowed 3 sacks on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 carries

CB Perrish Cox: Allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles and 1 stop on 11 run plays, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles, 1 stop on 17 run plays

SS Donte Whitner: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 missed tackles, 1 stop on 19 run plays

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]