Month: September 2012

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Believe it or not, this is a matchup of 2-0 teams. Philadelphia being 2-0 isn’t that farfetched, but anyone who told you that they had Arizona starting 2-0, with a week 2 clash in New England on the schedule, is either lying or the biggest Arizona homer in the world or didn’t look at the schedule or some mix of all three. No one saw that coming and it killed about half of the survivor pools out there including mine. Side note, I almost wrote at the end of the New England/Arizona write up that I was so confident New England would keep your survivor pools alive that if Arizona won, I would shave my pubes, glue them to my face, and run naked through the streets of Boston, but I didn’t want to sound ridiculous (phew).

However, I’m still not sold on Arizona. They’ve got a great defense, but I don’t trust either of these quarterbacks (it’ll be Kevin Kolb again in this one) and neither of their running backs has been able to get anything going as they’ve rushed for just 148 yards on 53 carries in their first 2 games. Another side note, that’s actually 28th in the league. 4 teams have rushed for worse totals than that. Why can’t anyone run the football this year (17 teams under 4.0 YPC)? Anyway, eventually the Cardinals’ offense is going to have to play better if they want to win games consistently and I don’t give them much chance of doing that here at home against a Philadelphia team that has one of the best defenses in the league.

The Cardinals actually have a negative points per play differential (thanks to a 4.2 yards per play average that is tied for 2nd worst in the league), which does not bode well for their future and which suggests they can’t keep this up. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the league’s best points per play differential. Still, they’ve barely won both of their games because they’ve turned the ball over 9 times and possess a -3 turnover differential that is tied for 2nd worst in the NFC.

Turnovers were a huge issue for them last season, turning the ball over 38 times. Turnovers, however, are incredibly inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis (which is why I love the yards per play differential stat, because turnovers aren’t a factor). Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season. The Eagles have been an exception to that statistic so far this season, turning the ball over 9 times in 2 games, but you have to figure, eventually their turnovers will become less of a problem and turnovers aside, this has been the best team in the league over the first 2 games.

As I said in the preseason, they’re one of the most talented teams in the league (even though they’re expected to be without Jeremy Maclin in this one) and they should be able to get a blowout win here, even on the road, against a fluky Arizona team. Arizona is home dogs of 3+, but unlike home dogs of 7+, I don’t have much of a problem betting on home dogs of 3-7. Home dogs of 3-7 are 215-257 since 2002, so there’s not much of a trend there as there is with 7+ home dogs (98-78).

One trend does work against the Cardinals. Teams coming off upset wins as dogs of 13+ are 14-29 ATS since 1989. I’d feel  a little bit more comfortable if this line was -3 and I had field goal protection. However, I feel like this one isn’t going to be very close and I’m putting a pretty big play on the road team.

Public lean: Philadelphia (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -4 (-105) 4 units

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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Texans

Houston Texans (2-0) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

No line has moved more over the past week than this one. Last week, this line was -2.5 in favor of Denver and now it’s -2 in favor of Houston. Why? Because Houston blew out the lowly Jaguars? Because Denver lost by 6 in Atlanta, one of the toughest places to play in the National Football League? I don’t get it. This line should probably be around -2.5 or -3 because these teams are pretty evenly matched (3 points is home field advantage).

Speaking of home field advantage, I’ve said before that I expect the Broncos to have one of the best home/road disparities in the NFL this season. They have a huge advantage at home, running the no huddle against defenses not used to playing in the thin air, but on the road, not only do they not have that advantage, but in noisy atmospheres like Atlanta last week, it’s tough to communicate your signals on audibles at the line.

Last week, they lost in Atlanta, one of the toughest places in the league to play, but it wasn’t too bad. Despite a disastrous 1st quarter, the Broncos only lost by 6 and outgained the Falcons 336 to 275. The reason they lost was because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. That probably won’t happen again. Not only are turnovers inconsistent on a weekly basis anyway, but it just doesn’t feel like something that happens to Peyton Manning quarterbacked teams all that often. And the reason it doesn’t feel like that is because it actually doesn’t happen much. In Peyton Manning’s career before last week, his team had only lost the turnover differential battle by 4 or more 6 times and 4 of those times were in 2001 or earlier.

Turnovers aside, the Broncos have been one of the best teams in the league so far this year, ranking 3rd in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I feel is the best indicator of future success. And the Broncos have done that against a tough schedule, playing two playoff teams from last year, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 7th despite playing Miami and Jacksonville.

This week, the Broncos get another tough test as they face the Texans, but they also return home where, as I mentioned, they have a huge advantage because they run a no huddle against teams not used to playing in the thin air. The Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, but so does Pittsburgh and the Steelers still eventually got winded and surrendered 31 points in a 31-19 loss week 1. I envision a similar outcome here. The Texans will be in it for a while, before Denver finally prevails and possibly by double digits. I’m not betting against them at home, especially as underdogs.

Speaking of underdogs, Peyton Manning is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since 2006 (excluding meaningless week 17 games. If you’re wondering how he does as a home as an underdog, well there’s not a lot to go on. He’s only been a home underdog one other time in that time period and that was against the Patriots in 2007 (he covered, but did not win). I picked against him as an underdog in Atlanta last week because of the home/away disparity and because of how good Matt Ryan is at home, but this week, I really like Denver, especially against a Houston team that hasn’t played anyone yet this season. They might still be in close to preseason mode and not prepared for this test. I also like that despite the big line change, the public is on Houston heavily. I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side).

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Denver +2 (-110) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

The 49ers have been the best team in the league over the first two games. As a result, they’ve been atop almost every Power Ranking I’ve seen. It’s a very interesting dynamic. This is the prototypical “nobody believes in us” team. Before last year, they were seen as an also ran. The hadn’t had a winning season in almost a decade, Alex Smith was still their quarterback, and as promising as Jim Harbaugh seemed, he had just 7 weeks with the team because of the lockout. Even as they started to get some early season wins, everyone just assumed they’d eventually go away, but they didn’t. It wasn’t until November that they were really seen as a legitimate contender and even then, no one gave them much of a chance to win the Super Bowl because Alex Smith was still their quarterback. They didn’t, falling flat offensively in a loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game.

Heading into 2012, they were once again being doubted as many people, including yours truly, felt they couldn’t keep it up. So what did they do? They won their first 2 games, both against 2011 playoff teams, including an upset victory in Lambeau Field, and they did it by holding two of the most prolific offenses in the league last year to a combined 41 points. Finally, everyone believes in them. How will they respond?

Not only that, how will they respond now that they’re facing the “lowly” Vikings? Every team has an off week and is flat at some point. Jim Harbaugh is an amazing Head Coach, but so is Bill Belichick. Belichick has been doing what Harbaugh’s done for the past year or so for about 10 and last week his Patriots lost at home to the Cardinals. It makes sense that the 49ers would be flat here, coming off two huge wins and having been finally anointed the best team in the league (before actually winning much substantial), against a team perceived as terrible. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier as they head to New York to play the Jets on the East Coast at a 1 o’clock start next week. This isn’t a true breather game (favorites before and after being dogs), but along those same lines, they could be flat here.

Meanwhile, the Vikings aren’t as bad as people think. In terms of points per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I think best predicts future success, the Vikings rank 5th through 2 games, while the 49ers stand at 8th. Obviously, schedule has a lot to do with that as the 49ers have faced two playoff teams from 2011 and the Vikings have faced the Jaguars and Colts, but the Vikings are still better than they’re being given credit for.

Christian Ponder seems to be the only 2nd year quarterback who is actually improved over his rookie year, completing 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 games, including 12 of 20 on throws that go longer than 10 yards through the air, which was an issue for him as a rookie (44 of 108). The coaching staff is using Percy Harvin properly this year and he’s become a legitimate #1 receiver and his offensive line is much improved over last year. Remember, last year, in the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league. The 49ers probably have the league’s top defense, but if they’re flat, the Vikings can move the ball on them some.

I’m not going to pick the Vikings to win or anything, but they should be able to cover the 7.5 points here at home. The 49ers offense isn’t built to blow people out (one of the reason why I didn’t bet heavily on them as 7 point home favorites against Detroit last week, even though I thought they had the clear match up advantage) and the Vikings have played well in the 4th quarter of each of their first 2 games, scoring 23 points in that quarter, 6th in the league. Even if the Vikings don’t play the 49ers close in Minnesota, there’s a good chance they could mount a backdoor cover.

Road favorites of more than a touchdown in general don’t cover at a high rate, going 78-98 ATS since 2002. There have been two such instances this season, Philadelphia at Cleveland and Houston at Jacksonville (the former didn’t cover on the road, the latter did). I’ve bet on the road team in both instances because I really didn’t like the match up for the home team, but I made sure to keep both bets small.

This week, I do like the match up for the home team. They’re better than you think and this is a huge statement game for them, while the 49ers could be flat in a breather game, and there’s also a strong possibility of a backdoor cover given how the 49ers aren’t built to blow teams out and how the Vikings have done a lot of scoring in the 4th quarter this season. On top of this, the public is betting heavily on San Francisco and I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side).

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

San Francisco 49ers 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against spread: Minnesota -7.5 (+120) 3 units

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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens

New England Patriots (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

Yes, the Patriots to the Cardinals lost last week. No, it’s not the end of the world. In 2010, they lost to the Browns. In 2011, they lost to the Bills. Neither of those games meant anything. They won 14 games in 2010 and 13 games in 2011. This is still the most consistent franchise over the past decade. This is football. Sometimes shit happens that doesn’t make any sense and is completely unpredictable that doesn’t mean anything.

But it is important to look at how the Patriots lost to the Cardinals. The Patriots outgained the Cardinals 387 to 245 and averaged 5.0 yards per play to the Cardinals’ 4.0 and they won the turnover battle 2-1. As a result, the Patriots led 6 drives into scoring range to Arizona’s 4. However, the difference was, on New England’s 6 trips into scoring range, they scored just 1 touchdown and settled for 5 field goals, one of which was the potential game winner, which missed. Arizona scored 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals on their 4 trips into scoring range. The Patriots also committed 8 penalties to Arizona’s 5. Historically though, whether or not you win the yardage battle the most accurate indicator of future performance. The Patriots actually rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play differential (I’ll get into this more later).

The other main reason the Patriots lost was the injury to Aaron Hernandez. If you lose one of the focal points of your offense that early like the Patriots did, you basically have to scrap your whole game plan and that puts you at a massive disadvantage. Hernandez is out for this one, which still hurts, but it won’t hurt as much as it did last week because the Patriots have gotten an entire week to adapt. They will be using more 3-wide receiver looks this week and Kellen Winslow, recently signed, will see some action as the move tight end in specialized situations.

Winslow is not Hernandez obviously, but he’s closer to him than anyone else on the team. Without Hernandez last week, they could run two-tight end sets because they didn’t have a move tight end on the roster, running their signature package on just 4 of 50 pass plays after the injury. The Patriots adapt better than probably any other team in the league. I expect them to do that this week and minimize the loss of Hernandez as much as they can. Julian Edelman will see more snaps in his absence and he looked good last week.

So basically the conclusion is that the Patriots’ loss last week, however surprising, was very explainable in hindsight and doesn’t matter that much going forward. However, this line suggests it does. The line has moved 3 points since last week, going from even to -3 in favor of Baltimore, who, by the way, also lost last week. There’s a lot of overreaction and because of that, there’s good line value here.

Besides, if history is any indication, the Patriots loss last week makes it MORE likely they’ll win this week. Tom Brady is amazing when people doubt him. Last week’s loss did just enough to get people to doubt him. In his career off a loss, he’s 28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS, off an upset loss he’s 17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS, as an underdog he’s 24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS (13-4 ATS since 2003), as an underdog off a loss he’s 11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS, and as an underdog off an upset loss 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS.

This game reminds me of the Patriots’ games in Pittsburgh and New York (against the Jets) in each of the last 2 years respectively. All of those aforementioned situations were true in those 2 games as well and I made huge plays on the Patriots in each of those two games and won both times. Both of these games were on the road against similar caliber opponents. And the Patriots didn’t just win those games; they dominated them, beating Pittsburgh 39-26 and the Jets 37-16. In fact, historically in this situation, they dominate teams. In those 11 wins as an underdog off a loss, the Patriots have outscored opponents by a whopping 16.6 points per game.

Now let’s move onto the Ravens. The Ravens right now, I think, are a little bit overrated. They’re clearly missing Terrell Suggs and others they lost this offseason. Their defensive performance in their first 2 games has been very unravenlike. The 808 yards they’ve allowed in those 2 games ranks 27th in the NFL. They’ve won the turnover battle in each of those 2 games and have a +4 turnover differential overall, but as I’ve said so many times, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis. The Ravens can’t keep relying on forcing turnovers to stop people, especially against an opponent in the Patriots who, in spite of what I just said about the inconsistency of turnovers, have managed to maintain any incredibly low turnover rate over the past decade. This is not the same defense that kept Tom Brady in check in the AFC Championship Game last year and arguably allowed Joe Flacco to outplay Brady statistically.

Speaking of Joe Flacco, he had a great opener against Cincinnati completing 21 of 29 for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns before falling flat against Philadelphia, completing 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Which one is the real Joe Flacco? Probably neither. The Bengals team he torched in the opener was missed two of their top cornerbacks and had the washed up Nate Clements and the also washed up Terence Newman seeing a bunch of snaps next to Leon Hall, who was 10 months removed from an Achilles tear and was uncharacteristically torched for over 100 yards by himself. They were also without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. Missing that same trio, the Bengals were torched by the Browns the following week as Brandon Weeden, whose QB rating the week before was 5.1, completed 26 of 37 for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns.

However, he’s not as bad as he looked against Philadelphia. Philadelphia is one of the best defenses in the league (they’re a big part of the reason why Weeden’s QB rating was 5.1 in the opener). Most likely, he’s still the same quarterback he’s always been. Any talk of a breakout year from him is premature, but any talk of a down year for him is equally short sighted. This year, he’s completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Those numbers are eerily similar to his career numbers, 60.8% completion 7.1 YPA, and 83 touchdowns to 47 interceptions. He’s still the same quarterback he’s always been.

So what’s the difference? The difference is schematically. The Ravens have gone to more of a no huddle, pass first offense this year. They’ve had a designed run on just 35.2% of their offensive snaps this year. For reference, last year, they ran on 40.5% of their offensive snaps. Joe Flacco is still the same quarterback he’s always been, but the coaching staff seems to think otherwise as they’ve upped his responsibility enormously and I don’t think he’s ready for that.

Meanwhile, while this is not the same Ravens defense that held Tom Brady in check last year, allowing Joe Flacco to arguably outplay him statistically, this is not the same Patriots defense that allowed Joe Flacco to arguably outplay Tom Brady statistically. Last year, like the Ravens are now, the Patriots were very reliant on turnovers for stops, ranking 29th in yards per play allowed, 6.0 (for reference, Baltimore is 20th at 5.6 this year as opposed to 1st at 4.6 last year), but forced 34 turnovers, most in the AFC (for reference, Baltimore was right in the middle at 26).

This year, the Patriots rank 5th in yards per play allowed (part of how they rank 6th in yards per play differential), allowing 4.3, but they’ve forced a much more middle of the pack 4 turnovers in 2 games. Part of this low yards per play allowed average is the competition (Tennessee and Arizona), but also part of it is an actual improvement in play. They’ve gotten several guys back from injury and several newcomers are playing very well. They’re no longer as reliant on turnovers to stop people; the Ravens are the ones who actually fit that description better now.

Flacco and the Ravens won’t find it as easy to move the ball as they did last year, especially if they continue to be as pass heavy as they have been, which isn’t really the most efficient game plan for this offense and this group of offensive personnel. Brady, meanwhile, should be able to move the ball easier than he did last year against a Baltimore defense that has been uncharacteristically bad through 2 games.

Baltimore’s uncharacteristically bad defensive play has not been the result of level of competition. Allowing 486 points to the Eagles is somewhat understandable, but allowing 322 to the Bengals is much more head scratching. Andy Dalton and the Bengals are an overrated team, specifically on offense. I mentioned how bad their defense has been, especially with all of those injuries, but their offense really struggles too, especially against tougher competition. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in those 8 games. In those 8 games, they only exceeded the 322 yards they had against Baltimore week 1 three times. In the opener, Joe Flacco had a good game against a terrible defense and a mediocre offense moved the ball better than it should have. Week 2, Joe Flacco did not have a good game and the defense was pretty atrocious. That’s why I say the Ravens are overrated. In terms of yards per play differential, they rank 12th.

This line, -3 in favor of the Ravens, is not only an overreaction to a fluky Patriots’ loss to the Cardinals, but it overrates the Ravens. I don’t think these two teams are equal, which is what the line suggests (3 points for home field advantage). On top of that, this is the exact situation that Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive in, people are doubting them, they’re coming off a loss, they’re underdogs against a tough opponents on the road, they’ll have a bounce back game. Like the Patriots/Jets game last year and the Patriots/Steelers game in 2010, the Patriots are going to be a huge bet here.

Two things that worry me here: the Ravens have won 12 straight at home and this is a huge revenge game for the Ravens. However, in those 12 games, the Ravens are just 6-5-1 ATS. Meanwhile, while this will be a huge game for the Ravens, who feel they deserved to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl last year, this is also a huge game for the Patriots, who are playing for respect coming off an embarrassing loss and playing a huge game on Sunday Night Football. It’s a statement game for both teams. Both teams are going to put everything they have into this week. It’s just a matter of which quarterback do you trust in a statement game more, Joe Flacco or Tom Brady. I don’t know about you, but I’m going with Brady.

Plus, teams seeking to get revenge for a playoff loss are just 18-24 ATS since 2008, so there’s no real trend that says teams play better and are more likely to cover when they’re trying to avenge a playoff loss. That makes sense as those types of games are normally between two good teams and are huge statement games for both sides. I’m making a huge play on the Patriots this week in this statement game. This is my pick of the month. Bet the farm on this one and if you don’t have a farm, buy one and I promise you that you’ll have two in a week. For the record, this is only the 8th time in 2 plus years of doing this that I’ve made a 6 unit bet. I’m 5-2 (Pats over Jets last year was one).

Update: I’m not putting any more units on this one, but I forgot to mention that the Patriots are in one of my favorite situations, dogs after a loss as a favorite before being favorites. The Patriots go to Buffalo next week. Teams are 44-21 ATS since 2008 in this situation (24-8 ATS since 2010). Also, teams coming off a loss as 13+ point favorites are 26-18 ATS since 1989. This is one of my favorite plays ever.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New England covers)

New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: New England+3 (-120) 6 units

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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, Panthers

New York Giants (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)

If you haven’t read Jason Whitlock’s article about how hypocritical Roger Goodell is pretending he cares about player safety, while simultaneously expanding Thursday Night Football to a season long thing and trying to expand the season to 18 games, here it is. It’s a very good read and yet another reason to hate Thursday Night Football. You may be thinking, how can you hate Thursday Night football? It’s another night of football. Yes, but it’s also sloppy football and if it’s a good matchup, it’s cheating us out of the opportunity to watch it under normal circumstances.

Last week it was Packers/Bears, two bitter rivals and two of the better teams in the National Football League, and what we got, because it was on Thursday, was a sloppy mess of two tired and unprepared teams. If that game had been on Sunday Night football or Monday Night football or time slot other than Thursday Night Football, it would have probably have been one of the best games of the week. Instead, it was painful to watch.

If you don’t believe me, look at the over/under record for as far back as there is data (1989). Since 1989, the over has won 50 times and the under has won 66 times. These are typically games that are much lower scoring than they are expected to be and than they probably should be, and on top of that, it risks injury for players playing tired. Roger Goodell has never played football. He doesn’t understand that, or maybe he just doesn’t care.

The one good thing about Thursday Night Football, it’s pretty easy to make money off of if you’re a bettor. I mentioned the over/under trend, I’m basically going to be betting the under on every Thursday Night game for the rest of the season and history suggests I’ll win at a rate of about 57%. The total for this game is a whopping 51 and I don’t give these teams much of a chance to reach that, especially with the Giants playing banged up offensively (more on that later). I rarely bet over/under, but I’m putting a unit on the under this week.

The other easy way to make money off Thursday Night Football is just to bet the home team. It makes sense. When you have just 3 days to prepare for a game, every day counts and if you have to spend half a day or a full day travelling, you’re at a huge disadvantage. Since 1989, the home team has covered 66 times, to 46 for the road team, which is about a 59% clip. I loved this trend last year and I went against it last week, only because I had a good reason. The Packers had really struggled the week before and the Bears had not, so the Packers would have more to work on during the week and be at a bigger disadvantage on a short week. Apparently not. From now on, I’m taking the home team on Thursday Night unless I have a very good reason not to and even then, I wouldn’t bet heavily on the road team like I did last week.

So do I have a good reason this week? Well, there are a few things working in the Giants’ favor. For one, they’re a much better road team than home team over the past few years. I love exploiting home/away disparities. I very rarely bet on the Seahawks on the road and almost always bet on them at home. Before last year, I did the opposite with the Dolphins, though that seems to no longer be the case. The Giants, meanwhile, are 38-18 ATS on the road since 2006 and 22-30 ATS at home. On top of that, they’re a much better team in the 1st half of the season than the 2nd. They’re 41-26 ATS during the first 9 weeks of the season under Tom Coughlin, and straight up, they’re 48-18 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. The other good thing working for the Giants is that they’re road favorites here and road favorites are actually 23-20 ATS on Thursday Night.

However, this is a tough spot for the Giants on a short week as favorites before being dogs, going into Philadelphia next week. Favorites before being dogs are 43-59 ATS since 2011. The Giants could be very flat this week on short rest against the “lowly” Panthers with a huge game in Philadelphia on the horizon. The Giants are also incredibly banged up. Ahmad Bradshaw is out and Tom Coughlin doesn’t trust the rookie David Wilson yet, so Andre Brown will start at running back for them. Meanwhile, wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon are both out and Coughlin doesn’t trust the rookie Reuben Randle, so Ramses Barden will draw the start opposite Victor Cruz. The injury situation is not nearly as bad for the Panthers. Jonathan Stewart is looking like a game time decision, but they have plenty of running back depth to compensate.

Leading off of the Giants’ injuries, there’s also a lot of line value here. The line has barely moved in spite of all these injuries and I think there was line value to begin with. The Panthers should probably be something like -2 or -3 here at home, especially on Thursday Night. I don’t think the difference between the Panthers and the Giants, when banged up this bad, is that different. Yards per play is the single most accurate measure of how a team is playing. The Panthers rank 2nd in yards per play differential, while the Giants’ yards per play differential is negative. I know it’s been just two games, but the schedules have been pretty even between these two teams. Both have played Tampa Bay, but Carolina went to Tampa Bay and New York got them at home, while Carolina has hosted New Orleans and the Giants have hosted the Cowboys.

I’m not necessarily saying the Panthers are a better team than the Giants, but they’re pretty equal with them right now with the Giants having all of their injuries and they should be able to cover as home dogs on Thursday Night, with the Giants possibly being more focused on the Eagles in Philadelphia next week. One final thing, rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line as underdogs, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. 1 point games account for about 2% of NFL games and even then, it’s a 50/50 chance that the Panthers win by 1. I don’t want to pay the extra 20 cents to get protection from a 1 point Giants win, which has about a 1% chance of happening.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Carolina +1.5 (-115) 0 units

Over/Under: Under 51 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 4 (+3)

Record: 1-1

The Packers came out flat defensively week 1 and lost to the 49ers and fire on defensively and beat the Bears week 2. Both are worthy opponents, but which defensive effort was the real one? I still don’t like their reliance on forcing turnovers, but if they can continue to play at least solid defense, they’ll be as tough to beat as they have been over the last 25 games, where they’re 22-3.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 5 drops, 107.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 37 drop backs (5 sacks, 2 of 3, 1 throw away)

RB Cedric Benson: Rushed for 81 yards (52 after contact) on 20 carries, 2 broken tackles, 4 catches for 35 yards on 4 targets

ROLB Clay Matthews: 4 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 6 stops

LE BJ Raji: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 2 catches for 21 yards on 6 attempts, 2 interceptions, 3 solo tackles

FS Charles Woodson: Allowed 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 2 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes, 5 solo tackles and 2 stops

SS Morgan Burnett: Didn’t allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

TE Jermichael Finley: 4 catches for 26 yards on 6 targets on 32 pass plays, 0.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop, run blocked for 4 yards (2 after contact) on 2 attempts

WR James Jones: Caught 2 passes for -1 yards on 5 targets on 37 pass plays, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 0.0 YAC per catch

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Houston Texans: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 2-0

Those might have been the easiest opening two games ever. The Texans pounded on the Dolphins and Jaguars, outscoring them 57-17 and outgaining them 748-392. Now for a real test as they head to Denver to take on Peyton Manning and that no huddle offense in thin air. The Texans may be untested, but they still look like one of the best teams in the league, as they did preseason.

Studs

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 64 yards on 15 attempts

RG Antoine Caldwell: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 4 attempts

RT Derek Newton: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty

RB Ben Tate: Rushed for 74 yards (38 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 12 carries, 1 broken tackle: 4 catches for 23 yards on 4 targets

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 110 yards (51 after contact) and a touchdown on 28 carries, 1 broken tackle, 6 catches for 37 yards on 7 targets

LE JJ Watt: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Kareem Jackson: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, no tackles

Duds

LG Wade Smith: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 8 attempts

TE Owen Daniels: 6 catches for 47 yards on 9 targets on 31 pass snaps, 5.2 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Andre Johnson: 3 catches for 21 yards on 4 targets on 32 pass snaps, 4.3 YAC per catch

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New England Patriots: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 1-1

In 2010, the Patriots lost to the Browns. In 2011, the Patriots lost to the Bills. They won 14 games in 2010 and 13 games in 2011. It wasn’t the end of the world then and it’s not the end of the world now. It’s football. Sometimes shit just happens for no reason. If the Patriots lost to the Ravens this week, then they’ve got an issue, but given Tom Brady’s career record off a loss (28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS), his record off an upset loss (17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS), his record as an underdog (24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS), his record as an underdog off a loss (11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS), and his record as an underdog off an upset loss (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS), I think the Patriots bounce back this week in what’s going to be a statement game for whoever wins. The Patriots have been in a similar situation in each of the last 2 years and beat the Jets 37-16 last year and the Steelers 39-26 the year before, both on the road and both good teams at the time. If anything, their loss last week made them more likely to win this week, because it delivered the wake up they needed.

Studs

RT Sebastian Vollmer: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for -1 yards on 1 attempt

RG Donald Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 31 yards on 6 attempt

CB Devin McCourty: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

MLB Brandon Spikes: Allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 4 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

SS Patrick Chung: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

RE Chandler Jones: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

CB Kyle Arrington: Allowed 5 catches for 62 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

P Zoltan Mesko: 5 punts for 152 yards, 2 of 5 inside 20, 1 return for 3 yards, 21.5 net yards per punt

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 10 (+6)

Record: 2-0

The Eagles have 9 turnovers in 2 games, but they’re 2-0. How does that happen? Well, when you lead the league in points per play differential with a differential of 1.5, all of a sudden, you can overcome those turnovers. Historically, that differential is more likely to continue that their turnover differential, which is -3. If that continues, the Eagles should prove themselves as one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, as I said they were at the beginning of the season, and compete for a first round bye in a loaded NFC.

Studs

QB Michael Vick: 23 of 32 for 371 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 2 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 103.8 adjusted QB rating, pressures on 16 of 39 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 sacks, 7 of 13, 2 hit as throwns, 1 interception), rushed for 34 yards (6 after contact) and a touchdown on 6 carries

WR DeSean Jackson: Caught 7 passes for 114 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass plays, 1.9 YAC per catch

FS Nate Allen: Allowed 6 catches for 52 yards on 12 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB DeMeco Ryans: Allowed 3 catches for 22 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes

CB Brandon Boykin: Did not allow a completion on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, no tackles, 2 kickoff returns for 48 yards

DT Derek Landri: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

DE Trent Cole: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DE Jason Babin: 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

RG Danny Watkins: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 4 carries

RB LeSean McCoy: Rushed for 81 yards (62 after contact) and a touchdown on 25 carries, 1 fumble, 8 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 10 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 3 targets, 1 drop

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for -3 yards (4 after contact) on 4 carries, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 1 pass block snap

SS Kurt Coleman: Allowed 2 catches for 45 yards on 2 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

P Chas Henry: 5 punts for 196 yards, 0 of 5 inside 20, 3 returns for 34 yards, 32.4 net yards per punt

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 2-0

I wasn’t that impressed with the Falcons on Monday Night. I felt like they should have been up 20 given how badly the Broncos started and how much they turned the ball over, but they didn’t capitalize like they should have. They lost the yardage total battle and the yards per play battle and if it wasn’t for those 4 turnovers, they probably would have lost at home by double digits. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle to win games. The good news, they got a tough win over a good opponent, Matt Ryan and this passing offense has been as advertised, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 5 touchdowns and no turnovers, and Dunta Robinson looked good in a fill in for injured Brent Grimes. They’ll need him to find that form that caused the Falcons to give him a 6 year, 57 million dollar deal 2 years ago. Up next for the Falcons is a trip to San Diego for a battle of unbeatens.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 24 of 36 for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 4 drops, 108.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 41 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 6 of 11, 2 throw aways, 1 drop, 1 touchdown)

WR Roddy White: 8 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets on 41 pass plays, 3.3 YAC per catch

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 42 yards (22 after contact) and a touchdown on 17 carries, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 target

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 carries

WR Julio Jones: 4 catches for 14 yards on 7 targets on 35 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hit on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist

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