Month: September 2012

Minnesota Vikings: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Yards per play differential is my favorite measure of how a team’s played and the Vikings actually rank 5th in that statistic through 2 games, despite sitting at 1-1. Level of competition is obviously a factor, playing Jacksonville and Indianapolis, but Christian Ponder seems to be the only 2nd year quarterback who is actually improved over his rookie year, completing 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 games, including 12 of 20 on throws that go longer than 10 yards through the air, which was an issue for him as a rookie (44 of 108). The coaching staff is using Percy Harvin properly this year and he’s become a legitimate #1 receiver and his offensive line is much improved over last year. Again level of competition is a factor there, but the Vikings get a real benchmark game this week against the San Francisco 49ers in Minnesota. Even if they don’t win, if they keep it close and stay competitive, people will start having to take them more seriously.

Studs

LT Matt Kalil: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

C John Sullivan: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 9 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 12 passes for 104 yards on 13 attempts on 39 pass plays, 5.9 YAC per catch, 2 carries for 13 yards

LOLB Erin Henderson: Allowed 3 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack on 5 blitzes

SS Harrison Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

ROLB Chad Greenway: Didn’t allow a catch on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quartberack hurry on 7 blitzes

K Blair Walsh: 5 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 73.4 yards per kickoff, 19.2 opponent average starting distance, 2/2 FG (29, 51)

Duds

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 25 (-2)

Record: 0-2

Matt Cassel is a limited quarterback, so their best chances of making the playoffs would have been to follow the solid defense, good running game, conservative offense, easy schedule, don’t make mistakes model they made it on in 2010. That doesn’t work so well if the defense doesn’t play well. Allowing 40 at home in the opener to Atlanta, missing your top cornerback and top pass rusher, is excusable. Allowing 35 to the Bills at full strength is not. The Chiefs have had to abandon their conservative offensive game plan in each of their first 2 games, passing a whopping 42 times to 24 runs last week, and they’ve predictably turned it over 6 times in 2 games. The Chiefs stand at 0-2 and head into New Orleans this week with a good chance to go down 0-3. It’s starting to look like the best Chiefs fan can hope for is their team finally bottoms out this season and takes a franchise quarterback through the draft. Matt Cassel is what he is and he’s owed a non-guaranteed 7.5 million heading into his age 31 season in 2013.

Kansas City Chiefs

Studs

WR Dwayne Bowe: Caught 8 passes for 102 yards on 14 targets on 50 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

LG Ryan Lilja: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 51 pass block snaps

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 51 pass block snaps

TE Tony Moeaki: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 3 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 5 attempts, 1 catch for 9 yards on 4 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

FS Abram Elam: Allowed 4 catches for 77 yards and a 2 touchdowns on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Glenn Dorsey: Didn’t record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Miami Dolphins: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 1-1

Ryan Tannehill is going to have days like he had in the opener (20-36 219 yards, 3 interceptions) and days like he had last week (18-30 200 yards, 1 touchdown). He’s a raw rookie with 19 collegiate starts. He’s going to be inconsistent. I don’t give them too much credit for beating a crappy Raiders team at home, especially when the Raiders were playing a 1 PM start as a West Coast team and coming off a short week because of Monday Night Football. Also, I’m still not sold that last week’s hero, Reggie Bush, will be able to stay healthy for 16 games. Bush rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 carries, and added 25 yards more through the air on 3 catches. He made live easy for Tannehill and was the primary reason they won.

Studs

RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns (51 yards after contact) on 26 carries, 4 broken tackles, 3 catches for 25 yards on 4 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 7 pass block snaps

C Mike Pouncey: Run blocked for 59 yards on 13 attempts, did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps

CB Sean Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 50 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles

SS Reshad Jones: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes

DT Randy Starks: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback pressures on 35 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

P Brandon Fields: 6 punts for 319 yards, 5 of 6 inside the 20, 5 returns for 58 yards, 43.5 net yards per punt

Duds

ROLB Koa Misi: Allowed 4 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 1-1

I’m still sticking with the whole, the Bengals are overrated thing. A 7 point win over the Browns doesn’t change that. If anything, it enforces it. The Bengals also rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential, allowing 1.9 yards per play more defensively than they gain offensively. The good news, some reinforcements are on the way as they could get top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and two cornerbacks, Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick, back from injury this week. A secondary featuring a still not 100% Leon Hall and the washed up Nate Clements and Terence Newman with no pass rush to support it has been predictably torched for 617 yards (9.4 YPA) in 2 games, which ranks 29th in the league, despite facing Joe Flacco and Brandon Weeden. The bad news is the Bengals just put two more players on IR, every down linebacker Thomas Howard and rotational defensive end Jamaal Anderson, and they have a tough test in Washington this week against the upstart Redskins.

Studs

CB Leon Hall: Allowed 5 catches for 40 yards on 7 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz, 6 solo tackles, 2 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Geno Atkins: 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

CB Adam Jones: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 3 punt returns for 90 yards and a touchdown

Duds

C Jeff Faine: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 9 attempts

TE Jermaine Gresham: Caught 4 passes for 37 yards on 5 targets, 2.0 YAC per catch, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts, 2 penalties

MLB Rey Maualuga: Allowed 4 completions for 68 yards on 5 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 0-2

Remember when Blaine Gabbert looked like a functional quarterback? That was fun. Against Houston, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4. He won’t face a defense as good as Houston’s every week, but he won’t face one as bad as Minnesota’s every week either. He’s got 14 games to prove he’s the future of the team, otherwise, the people who brought him in, especially his biggest backer GM Gene Smith, could be fired, leaving Gabbert’s future with the team murky at best.

Studs

FS Dwight Lowery: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles

P Bryan Anger: 9 punts for 470 yards, 4 of 9 inside the 20, 5 returns for 77 yards, 43.7 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Blaine Gabbert: 7 of 19 for 53 yards and 1 touchdown, 2 batted passes, 2 drops, 59.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs (1 scramble, 3 sacks, 1 for 4 and a touchdown)

RT Guy Whimper: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -4 yards on 1 attempt

LG Herbert Taylor: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Justin Blackmon: Did not catch a pass on 3 targets on 24 pass snaps

TE Marcedes Lewis: Did not catch a pass on 1 target on 22 pass snaps

ROLB Kyle Bosworth: 2 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 completions for 47 yards on 5 attempts

DT Tyson Alualu: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

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Oakland Raiders: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-2

I called this team overrated before the season and said they were one of the worst teams in the league and an ugly 35-13 loss to the Dolphins is making that look pretty good. The new regime has a lot of promise, but they inherited a mess, an 8 win team (with a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins for stat nerds) that was above the cap and didn’t have very many draft picks. Whether or not the future is bright remains to be seen, but the present is pretty bad.

Studs

SS Tyvon Branch: 11 solo tackles, 4 stops, was not thrown on, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hits on 9 blitzes

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 22 yards (25 after contact) on 11 carries, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps, 2 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets, 2 drops

QB Carson Palmer: 24 of 48 for 373 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 3 drops, 69.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 19 of 49 drop backs (1 scramble, 0 sacks, 7-18, 1 drop)

LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 4 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RG Mike Brisiel: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Joselio Hanson: Allowed 5 completions for 58 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

MLB Rolando McClain: Allowed 3 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-2

The Browns hung with an overrated Bengals team this weekend, but I think Cincinnati is one of the worst teams in the league. 2 weeks into the season, the Browns are one of just 6 teams without a win and appear to be the weakest of the 6. They’re currently the leaders in the Blow for Barkley sweepstakes. The question is, would they take Barkley and give up on Weeden after one year, or trade the pick for a king’s ransom like the Rams did last year, and move forward with Weeden into his age 30 season in 2013?

Studs

LG Jason Pinkston: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 109 yards (41 after contact) and a touchdown on 19 carries, broke 1 tackle, caught 4 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets

MLB D’Qwell Jackson: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 3 sacks on 6 blitzes, 1 solo tackle, 4 stops

Duds

RG Shawn Lauvao: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 8 catches for 94 yards on 9 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

FS Eric Hagg: Allowed 1 catch for 44 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed special teams tackle

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Yards per play

stevenlourie 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks
Team OYPP YPP Differential
Philadelphia 4.3 5.8 1.5
Carolina 5.4 6.9 1.5
Denver 4.1 5.5 1.4
Dallas 5 6.4 1.4
Minnesota 4.6 5.8 1.2
New England 4.3 5.4 1.1
Houston 4.1 5 0.9
San Francisco 5.1 5.9 0.8
Buffalo 6 6.8 0.8
Green Bay 4.6 5.1 0.5
Detroit 5.2 5.7 0.5
Baltimore 5.6 6.1 0.5
San Diego 4.9 5.2 0.3
Washington 6.3 6.4 0.1
Atlanta 5.4 5.4 0
Oakland 5.5 5.5 0
Arizona 4.3 4.2 -0.1
Cleveland 5.5 5.4 -0.1
Miami 5.6 5.5 -0.1
NY Giants 6.8 6.7 -0.1
Seattle 4.8 4.3 -0.5
Chicago 5.2 4.7 -0.5
St Louis 6.4 5.9 -0.5
Indianapolis 5.6 5 -0.6
Pittsburgh 5.2 4.6 -0.6
NY Jets 6 5.3 -0.7
Tennessee 5.7 4.9 -0.8
New Orleans 6.9 6 -0.9
Kansas City 6.9 5.8 -1.1
Jacksonville 5.7 4.2 -1.5
Cincinnati 7.2 5.3 -1.9
Tampa Bay 7.2 5 -2.2

Yards per play differential is the single most accurate measure of how a team is playing, more so than win-loss record, point differential, yards per game, etc. We’ve only played 2 games, so it’s important to remember that this is just a measure of performance in the first 2 games, and also that strength of schedule does matter, but this can be a very valuable tool for making picks against the spread.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 15.7%

Danny Amendola is by far Sam Bradford’s favorite target and with Bradford looking improved early in the season, expect Amendola to put up good numbers the rest of the way, until further notice. In 2 games, he’s caught 20 passes for 230 yards and a score and half been the recipient on close to half of the Rams’ receiving yards.

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Steven Jackson left the game and didn’t return. It was originally speculated that Jackson was benched following a penalty, but Jeff Fisher claimed it was a groin injury. Either way, Daryl Richardson looked great in his absence, rushing for 83 yards on 15 carries. Jackson had been looking pretty washed up this season before getting benched, with 111 yards on 30 carries, which makes sense because of his age and his career usage, and now could miss time, for whatever reason. Richardson could continue to start going forward, so he should be picked up in all leagues. Monitor the situation.

RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Ahmad Bradshaw could miss a significant period of time with injury and Tom Coughlin still doesn’t seem to trust rookie David Wilson, giving him just 3 carries. The veteran Brown got 13 carries and rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown. He also added 2 catches for 19 yards. Wilson could see a bigger role next week, but as long as Bradshaw is out, consider Wilson the backup and Brown the starter, which makes him worth a waiver claim in all leagues.

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

Percent owned (ESPN): 24.3%

After Steve Smith, there’s no one Cam Newton likes throwing to more than 3rd year receiver Brandon LaFell. LaFell has 9 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown in 2 games and is 2nd on one of the league’s better passing offenses in targets.

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

It’s clear that Brian Hartline is Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target. What’s not clear is if Tannehill will be consistent enough for any of his wide receivers to be fantasy startable, but Hartline is worth a stash on your bench for now. He’s caught 12 passes for 161 yards in 2 games.

TE Dennis Pitta (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 22.7%

Unlike previous years, where Flacco threw to both of his tight ends equally, Flacco seems to really favor Dennis Pitta this year. In 2 games, Pitta has 13 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown, while Dickson has just 3 catches for 45 yards. If you need a tight end, Pitta is your man this week.

WR Julian Edelman (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Edelman got the surprise start over Wes Welker against Arizona and played more snaps than him. Normally I’d question whether or not that would be the case going forward, but Aaron Hernandez is out for about 6 weeks so the Patriots won’t have any choice but to go to more 3-wide receiver sets, with Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker, and Julian Edelman. Edelman, who caught 5 passes for 50 yards this week despite a relatively weak showing by the Patriots’ passing offense, will have a prominent role in one of the league’s best passing offenses going forward.

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Of the five 2nd year quarterbacks, Ponder seems to be the only one improved over his rookie year. He’s completed 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He has a tough matchup this week against San Francisco, but he’s worth a pickup as a QB2 and bye week filler going forward.

WR Donnie Avery (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Donnie Avery has started each of the first 2 games with Austin Collie out and will continue to do so until Collie returns. He hasn’t looked bad, catching 12 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. Collie is out indefinitely. He could be back this week, but that’s been the case in each of the last 2 weeks and he hasn’t played. Concussions are tricky to put a timetable on, especially with someone who has a history of them like Collie. Avery might be worth a bench stash.

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Shonn Greene hasn’t looked good in the first 2 games, with 117 yards and a score on 38 carries and Bilal Powell, the Jets’ #2 back, started taking touches away from Greene this week, carrying it 9 times to Greene’s 11. Some of that had to do with Greene missing some time with injury, but Powell continued to see the field some even after Greene returned and he looked like the better back. If Greene continues to struggle, expect Powell, the better pass catcher as well, to continue eating into his touches. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues.

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

He doesn’t have much of a track record, but it’s worth noting that Myers has caught 11 passes for 151 yards in 2 games. In deep leagues, he’s worth a look if you need a tight end, but there’s a reason he’s towards the bottom of this list.

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Percent owned (ESPN): 16.1%

Just like last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick loves throwing to him on the goal line. Last year he had 6 touchdowns and this year he has 2 in as many games, to go with 6 catches for 91 yards in 2 games. He’s at the bottom of this list for a reason, but he’s worth a look in deep leagues and touchdown leagues.

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Week 2 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 2 Results

ATS: 8-6-2 -1 units/-$155

SU: 11-5

Upset Picks: 4-3 +705

Total: +$550

Public Results ATS*: 7-9 -7 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 16-14-2 -5 units/-$810

SU: 20-12

Upset Picks: 7-7 +$455

Total: -$355

Survivor: 1-1 (HOU, NE)

Public Results ATS*: 14-18 -13 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.