Month: September 2012

Chargers expect Antonio Gates, Quentin Jammer to play, Ryan Mathews to be a game-time decision

stevenlourie Chargers, News

The Chargers are one of the most banged up teams in the league right now. Last week against the Raiders, they had to start an undrafted free agent at left tackle on an already weak offensive line because Jared Gaither is out indefinitely with back spasms. They were also without Vincent Brown, their top receiver in Training Camp, and Philip Rivers never looked comfortable throwing to Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd, completing 24 of 33 for 231 yards and a score against an incredibly thin Oakland secondary.

Rivers isn’t helped by his offensive line’s deficiencies, though they did do a decent job in the opener of protecting him, as Rivers was pressured on just 10 of 34 drop backs, and he also isn’t helped by their inability to run the ball. Missing Ryan Mathews, who was supposed to be their everything back, the Chargers managed just 32 yards on 20 carries, led at running back by a duo of the washed up Ronnie Brown and the mediocre Curtis Brinkley.

Brown and Gaither will miss this week as well and are out indefinitely (Brown is out for at least 6 weeks), but Ryan Mathews has yet to be ruled out. Even still, it doesn’t sound promising for him. Reports have been varied, but trusted beat writer Michael Gehlken, of the Union-Tribune San Diego, who attends all practices and press conferences, believes Mathews will once again be inactive. At the very most, he’ll be a game time decision.

The Chargers also have two new injuries to worry about, Antonio Gates and Quentin Jammer, though both are expected to play. Gates has a rib problem that has caused him to miss some practice this week, but he normally plays through injuries, so expect him out there playing through the pain, good news for Rivers since he’s his most trusted target in a thin receiving corps. Jammer, meanwhile, has a broken hand, but is also expected to play through it, wearing a cast. Jammer, a declining player at age 33, had a nice opener, but a broken hand will hurt his ability to tackle and be physical with wide receivers, so the Titans could throw on him with some ease this week, especially if the aged corner proves last week was a fluke.

Jammer’s presence is necessary though, as nickel cornerback Shareece Wright will miss this week with an ankle problem, which would have left the inexperienced Marcus Gilchrist, a 2011 2nd round pick, to start and someone signed off the streets to man the nickel as the Chargers only carry 4 cornerbacks. Instead, Gilchrist will just take Wright’s spot in the slot, which isn’t a huge downgrade.

Still, with all these injuries and their history early in the season, it’s definitely possible they could be caught off guard and upset by the underrated Titans this week. If it wasn’t for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper last week, they could have lost to a Raider team that I think is one of the worst in the league. That win reminded me of their 4-1 start last season. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. However, once they started playing real teams, things got a lot harder for them and they actually went on a 6 game losing streak. The Titans are a real team, so the Chargers have to be careful.

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Lions expect to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Bill Bentley this week

stevenlourie 49ers, News

One of the big questions of the 2012 season is can Alex Smith prove he’s a true franchise quarterback, now that the 49ers have gotten him some weapons and now that he’s had a full offseason in Harbaugh’s scheme. Jim Harbaugh did a great job of turning him from lost cause to game manager last season, but history shows that teams can’t win on a consistent basis following the good defense, good running game, don’t make mistakes model (see pre-Cutler Bears or pre-Flacco Ravens). You can have a good year or even a great year, but it’s very tough to maintain consistent year to year success in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback.

Smith certainly looked like a franchise quarterback in the opener, completing 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading the 49ers to an upset victory over the Packers in Lambeau 30-22. However, the Packers were blowing coverages left and right so it’s tough to get a conclusive answer from that game. It’ll probably be tough to get a conclusive answer from this week’s game either as the 49ers head home to take on the Lions and their incredibly banged up secondary.

Already with a weak secondary heading into the season, a big part of the reason for their 23rd ranked scoring defense last year, the Lions have been plagued by injuries in that area in which they were already weakest. Top cornerback Chris Houston and starting safety Louis Delmas both missed the opener and are expected to miss this week as well, very bad news since those were the Lions’ only two decent defensive backs. Without those two, the Lions had trouble stopping Sam Bradford last week, who completed 17 of 25 for 198 yards and a touchdown in a near Rams victory in Detroit.

Now the Lions expect to be without another defensive back, 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, this week. Bentley was a starter last week in place of the injured Houston. Without Bentley, the Lions’ top 3 cornerbacks this week will be Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, Drayton Florence, who was a final cut of the Broncos’ roughly 2 weeks ago, and Jonte Green, a 6th round rookie. At safety, they will start two career journeyman backups, Erik Coleman and John Wendling. Their pass rush is good, but expect Alex Smith to find life very easy through the air once again this week, as long as they can keep him protected again, something they did a good job of against Green Bay, as he was pressured on just 7 of 33 drop backs.

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Rams to be without 2 starting offensive linemen this week, Rodger Saffold questionable

stevenlourie News, Rams

Injuries were a huge issue for the Rams last year, especially in the secondary and on the offensive line. This year, it appears the injuries are starting again, at least on the offensive line. When the Rams play the Redskins this week, they will be without starting left guard Rokevious Watkins and starting center Scott Wells.

The Watkins injury is not serious. Watkins is a mere 5th round rookie and left guard would have been a weakness regardless. Watkins predictably struggled in his NFL debut last week and the drop off from him to Quinn Ojinnaka, his replacement, probably won’t be noticeable. In fact, it might be a positive. However, Wells’ injury is more serious. Not only is it more long term, as the Rams placed him on the NFL’s new retractable IR, meaning he’ll miss at least 6 weeks and possibly the entire season, but Wells is also a much better player. ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked center in 2011, the Rams signed Wells to a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal this offseason, expecting him to help solidify the line and anchor the running game. Instead, it will be career backup Robert Turner starting for at least the next few weeks.

The good news for the Rams is that Rodger Saffold was only listed as questionable and he is expected to suit up after practicing this week. It looked a lot more serious than that at first, as it was a neck injury and he was down for a while, but the Rams appear to have caught a break. When healthy, Saffold is an above average player at the most important offensive line position and obviously a huge upgrade over Jets castoff Wayne Hunter, who would have started in his absence. Saffold held his own against a tough Detroit pass rush last week, not allowing a single pressure on 22 pass plays before leaving with injury, and should be able to do so again this week against an also tough Washington pass rush.

For all the criticism their offensive line got in the offseason, they only allowed Bradford to be pressured on 9 of 30 drop backs last week, a very solid 30.0% pressure rate. A lot of that has to do with Bradford being back in a short throw, west coast offense, like he was in 2010, when he and the Rams had a decent season. They have a solid defense and they almost pulled the upset in Detroit last week, so they have a good chance to actually seal the deal this week and pull the upset at home, where they were 5-3 in 2010, against a young Redskin team.

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Eagles give up on Jaiquawn Jarrett

stevenlourie Eagles, News

Well that was quick. Seeing a team release a 2nd round pick just a year after they draft them is rare. Hell, even seeing a team release a 3rd round pick just a year after they draft them, like the Panthers recently did with Terrell McClain, is rare. However, once Jaiquawn Jarrett fell to 3rd string at safety in Philadelphia, they just decided to give up on him and release him. The 2011 2nd round pick was given every opportunity to start as a rookie, but struggled and lost his job to Kurt Coleman, a mediocre 2010 7th round pick.

Jarrett came back this offseason with a chance to compete for his old job with veteran free agent addition OJ Atogwe and the incumbent Coleman, but Jarrett lost the competition fairly quickly. While he lasted on the roster longer than Atogwe, who was a final cut, he eventually lost his roster spot as the Eagles decided to keep strong special teamers Colt Anderson and David Sims. Sims was acquired from Cleveland primarily for his special teams value for a late round pick right before final cuts. Jarrett has never been able to get the hang of special teams. Anderson, a special teams stud for them last year, was inactive for the opener with injury issues, but when he returned, Jarrett became an unneeded 5th safety and was released.

The starting free safety job is all Kurt Coleman’s for now and he will be given every opportunity to prove he can be a long term starter, but the Eagles may have to turn use an early pick on a safety in the 2013 NFL Draft, for the 3rd time in 4 drafts (starter Nate Allen was a 2010 2nd round pick). Coleman had two picks in the opener, but those were largely due to Brandon Weeden’s ineptitude. Let’s see how he does for the rest of the season. In 2011, Coleman was ProFootballFocus’ 59th ranked safety out of 84 eligible.

As for Jarrett, he predictably went unclaimed on waivers as no one wanted to guarantee his $538,500 dollar salary. However, even though he was a surprise 2nd round pick in 2011, there are probably still some teams out there that see him as someone with upside, someone they could potentially groom into a future starter with the right combination of coaching and luck. Jarrett worked out with the safety needy Jets on Friday, but was not immediately signed. He should catch on somewhere in the next week or couple of weeks.

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Tim Tebow could ask for trade from Jets?

stevenlourie Jets, News

There was a media stir created this week when the New York Daily News reported that an NFL source told them that Tim Tebow could ask for a trade at the end of the season. The media goes crazy over Tim Tebow even when there’s nothing newsworthy going on with him, so you can imagine how they reacted once they found out that something newsworthy actually might be going on with him.

However, I believe this is all just media hype and possibly a completely made up story. When the Broncos traded Tebow, they gave him a choice between the interested parties and he chose the Jets (over the Jaguars) because he thought they gave him the best chance to start long term. I highly doubt that’s changed after just 1 game. And frankly, if Tebow no longer thinks he can beat out Mark Sanchez, you have to wonder who he does think he can beat out. Sanchez had a good game last week, but his career history has been generally mediocre and inconsistent. He could easily fall flat on his face this week against Pittsburgh. This is a non-story right now and I still expect Tebow to eventually be the starter in New York, once the team starts struggling.

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Dallas Cowboys extend 3-4 DE Sean Lissemore

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cowboys, Offseason Moves 2012

Lissemore was a 7th round pick in 2010 and had 2 years (including this one) left on his rookie deal. The Cowboys have tacked on an extra 3 years, 6 million onto his deal, with 3.1 million guaranteed. This is the 2nd time in as many seasons that the Cowboys have attempted to get ahead of the curve and give a player an extension before they broke out because the team felt they were headed for a breakout year. Last year, they gave Orlando Scandrick a 5 year, 27 million dollar extension with 10 million guaranteed.

This deal is far less head scratching. For one, it’s far less money so they’re taking a far smaller risk if Lissemore doesn’t pan out like they think he will. Two, Lissemore is coming off a strong season as a situational player, whereas Scandrick struggled some on the slot in 2010, before getting his extension. For some reason, the Cowboys thought that made him a good bet to be a long term starter at cornerback.

However, just one year later they were proven wrong as Scandrick failed to take the next step and the team had to use a lot of resources to add two new cornerbacks in Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne this offseason. Now Scandrick is stuck behind those two for the foreseeable future and the Cowboys are stuck being an average slot cornerback a lot of money yearly. In the opener, he played just 27 of 56 snaps, which is about what you can expect from him long term.

Lissemore, however, played very well as a situational player last year. In 2011, he had a 13.8 rating on just 283 snaps on ProFootballFocus. He wasn’t much of a pass rusher, but he had 18 solo tackles, 8 assists and 16 stops on just 119 run defense snaps, while missing only 2 tackles. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd rated 3-4 defensive end against the run, behind Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey. He played all over the line, both end spots and nose tackle, and will have a bigger role this season. We’ll see if the added playing time will help or hurt him, but I named him as my potential breakout player for the Cowboys early in the season.

Lissemore played 27 of 56 snaps in the opener and only one defensive lineman played more. He’ll probably see slightly fewer snaps when Jay Ratliff returns, but if he continues to play well, as he did in the opener, he could lock down that 3rd starting defensive lineman job next to Jason Hatcher and Jay Ratliff by season’s end, something they desperately need someone to do, and if he does that, he’ll end up being well worth this contract long term. If he doesn’t, it’s not a huge risk and Lissemore could still end up being a valuable rotational player.

Grade: A

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

I had the Bills as one of my underrated teams going into the season, thinking that they’d be that team this year that makes the playoffs on the combination of a strong running game, strong defense, decent quarterback play, and an easy schedule. Well, it turns out that only works if your quarterback isn’t horrific and your defense doesn’t give up after going on 21-0 early as the opposing team’s offense scores twice with a short field off turnovers and then returns a kickoff for a touchdown.

At least I got the running game part right. Fred Jackson is out for this one, so the Bills won’t have their one-two punch, but CJ Spiller has proven he can be the one-two punch all by himself. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Last week, he managed 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The passing game and the defense weren’t good in the opener, but I think the latter will be better in this one. The Bills may have surrendered 48 points, but 14 of those were on a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown. Of the remaining 34, 14 were allowed early in the game on a short field and after those two scores and the punt return touchdown, the Bills’ defense just gave up.

That they gave up is a concern, but if they can have better luck early in this one, the defense won’t do that and they have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive line, so they should have a good game. Last week, because of their offense’s ineptude, they were on the field the 12th most of any team in the league in terms of time of possession and only allowed the 11th most yards. That’s not as horrific of a defensive performance as the 48 points would suggest.

The passing game is a major concern. All Fitzpatrick has to do, given their good running game and defense, is not make mistakes, but he threw 3 turnovers last week. He had that nice start to last season, but in his last 10 games, he’s completed 216 of 372 (58.1%) for 2288 yards (6.2 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He didn’t have a good preseason either and he can’t blame a rib injury this time. I don’t know if he just doesn’t care as much now that he’s gotten paid or if his strong start to last season was a fluke or if opposing defensive coordinators have just caught on to Chan Gailey’s scheme or if it’s all 3, but Fitzpatrick is awful and probably will need to be replaced this offseason.

The Chiefs are similarly built. They can run the ball with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they have a good defense. I know they surrendered 40 to the Falcons last week, but they were missing their top cornerback and their top pass rusher and the Falcons might have a top-5 offense this year. Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers will be back this week and the Bills are far from a top-5 offense, so they should be able to have a good defensive game. This will allow them to execute the conservative offense they weren’t really able to in the opener because of their defensive play. This will make life easy for Matt Cassel, who turned the ball over 3 times last week because he was playing from behind for most of the game.

Theoretically, these teams are built the same way. Both can run the football and play good defense and make life easy for their quarterbacks, especially against easier opponents and both teams do have easier opponents this week. However, Cassel has proven that when things are made easy for him, he can avoid turnovers. Fitzpatrick seems to just like to force things even when he doesn’t have to.

Kansas City will probably win the turnover battle and the game here in Buffalo, but it’s not a huge bet because I hate betting on a team winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are just so tough to predict not just on a yearly basis, but on the weekly basis in the NFL and that’s really the one edge Kansas City should have this week over Buffalo. If they can’t win the turnover battle, Buffalo should win this one at home by a small margin. One note, this line is listed at +3 (+100) at some places and +3.5 (-120) at some places. If you can pay for the extra half point, do it. If Buffalo wins, it’ll probably be only by a field goal.

Public lean: Kansas City (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (+100) 2 units

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Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Rams

Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)

I had the Rams as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The idea with picking underrated and overrated teams before the season was to bet on them (or against them for overrated teams) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. In 7 games involving these teams week 1, I went 5-2 ATS so I will be continuing that this week as I post recommendations for you to bet on nfl football, unless I have been proven wrong on a team.

I haven’t exactly been proven wrong on the Rams. They played about as well as I thought they would against the Lions, as I nailed my 5 unit pick (+7.5). It took a late Lions’ comeback to beat the Rams in Detroit, which is definitely an accomplishment for this team after the season they had last year. However, there are two concerns with them.

They lost two starters on the offensive line to injury, center Scott Wells and left tackle Rodger Saffold against the Rams. Part of my reasoning for an improved Rams team was an improved offensive line, with Scott Wells coming in and Rodger Saffold coming back from injury. That can’t really happen if both are hurt. The other thing was that Steven Jackson looked pretty done. History suggests he should have one more good year in him, but that’s no guarantee and he was just held to 53 yards on 21 carries by a Lions run defense that ranked 28th in the league in 2011. If he is done, three things will need to happen. The coaching staff will need to reduce his role. He will have to accept this reduced role without being upset. And rookies Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson will have to prove themselves capable of larger roles. That’s easier said than done, but if they can do that, they should still be able to run the conservative offense they’ll need to run to win games.

The good news is that Saffold is expected to be back for this game. He’s always been good when healthy and held his own against a strong Lions pass rush last week before going down and should be able to do the same this week against a strong Redskins pass rush. However, without Wells, they now have 3 holes on the offensive line (left guard, center, right tackle), so Bradford will be under some pressure in this one. That could also hurt their running game, which they really need to get back on track. They have a good defense and if they run the ball and make life easy for Sam Bradford, they can win some games. I haven’t quite even up on Steven Jackson yet though.

The Redskins held the Saints’ running game in check last week, but only because the Saints had to abandon the run early. This was the 18th ranked run defense in 2011 and they return a similar group of personnel, so they can be run on if the Redskins’ offense doesn’t force the Rams to abandon the run. The Redskins can also be thrown on. Their secondary and their defense is general is going to be a weakness. Even though the Saints’ offense was on the field for a league low 20:50 minutes last week, they still scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal and had 358 yards of offense.

So the big question is can Robert Griffin do what he did last week? I’m going to say no, for two reasons. The first is that he’s a rookie. He’s going to have some ups and downs. Even the best rookies do. Last week was definitely an up, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be that good again this week, especially against a better defense. St. Louis kept Detroit in check last week on the road. Now they’re at home, where they are a better team. In 2010, their last good season, they were 5-3 at home, as opposed to 2-6 on the road.

I’m taking the Rams for a pretty sizable bet for several reasons. I still think the Rams are underrated, despite a solid showing last week, while Washington might be a little bit overrated. They had a very good performance last week, but the Saints aren’t the normal Saints and Griffin, by his nature as a rookie, will be inconsistent. He could look more like a rookie this week against a tougher Rams defense.

The Redskins’ defense, meanwhile, is a concern. Their defense wasn’t great last year, ranking 21st in scoring. Some of that had to do with the offense’s poor play, leading to the defense having to see the field more than average, but the Saints proved last week that the Redskins have some problems defensively as they put up a lot of yards in the little time they actually saw the field. If the Redskins’ defense is on the field around 30 minutes this week, Bradford and company should be able to move the ball against them and keep this a close game.

I think this will be a close game either way and I feel like the line should be something like -2 or -3 in favor of St. Louis (3 points for home field advantage), so there’s definitely line value. As long as I’m getting more than 3 points with St. Louis, I’m making a pretty sizeable bet. I don’t think Washington has proven enough yet to be worth being road favorites or more than 3, especially against an underrated Rams team.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

I thought the Saints would be alright even after the offseason they just had. Their defensive losses weren’t huge (Will Smith was even reinstated for the opener and Jonathan Vilma is incredibly overrated) and the loss of the coaches would mostly effect the offense, where Drew Brees would function well as a stabilizing force. They certainly didn’t look alright in the opener, losing to home, where they won all 9 games last year, and while they may be better later in the season, once they have a few more games under their belt without Sean Payton, they won’t look like the normal Saints early in the season.

So can the Saints beat the Panthers in Carolina if they’re not the normal Saints? Well, they certainly could. This is still a talented team. There is a major question though as this team goes on the road. They’re a great home team, but they have trouble on the road, especially outside and especially over the past 2 years, as they are 7-11 ATS on the road and 12-5 ATS at home.

Honestly, I don’t really have a strong opinion on this. Could the Saints come out like the Packers did on Thursdsay night, kill any talk of a down year and an 0-2 start to the season and demolish a divisional rival? Sure, they could. Drew Brees is 20-12 ATS off a loss as a member of the Saints and this is a key game. He is the type of quarterback who wins key games. Could the Saints also be more dysfunctional than we thought (or as dysfunctional as they looked in the opener) and come out and struggle to beat a Carolina team that is underrated off a loss to an underrated Bucs team? Sure they could. After all, the Panthers covered as home dogs against the Saints last year and almost won, losing by just 3 and I think we can all agree, this version of the Saints is inferior.

I want to go with the Panthers because the Saints are clearly the public lean and I love “fading” the public and the Panthers almost beat the Saints last year, but something tells me, after seeing the Packers play last night, that this will be a huge statement game for the Saints, and that they aren’t as bad as they looked last week, so I’m going with Drew Brees and his 20-12 ATS record as a Saint after a loss to bounce back this week.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3 (-105) 1 unit

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Houston Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable in the opener against the Vikings, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Houston this week, unfortunately, has both a great pass rush and a great secondary, so this will be a major test for the 2nd year quarterback. He won’t get a lot of help from his offensive line. Minnesota’s got a great pass rush, but part of the reason why Gabbert was under pressure so much was the play of his offensive line, specifically right tackle. Cameron Bradfield got the start, but left with an ankle injury, allowing Guy Whimper, who was awful last year as a starter, to come in. He was awful, making Brian Robison look like a Pro Bowl defensive end.

Bradfield wasn’t much better before he got hurt and Robison pressured Gabbert on 9 throws. Whoever starts there this week will have a tough time trying to contain the Texans’ pass rush, especially if it’s Whimper, which it looks like it will be. Also likely to miss this week’s game with injury is left guard Eben Britton. Britton moved from right tackle to left guard when Will Rackley got hurt and if he can’t go, it’ll be up to either undrafted rookie Mike Brewster or Troy Kropog, recently signed, to start at left guard. Either way, it’s a problem area. Gabbert will be under pressure all night and if he reverts to his old habits, he could really struggle, especially against Houston’s secondary. Even if he continues to show poise in the pocket, the Jaguars will probably still have trouble moving the ball against a tough Houston defense.

The Jaguars also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Daryl Smith and Derek Cox did not suit up for the opener and might not play again this week. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missed 1 game and maybe more. In the opener, replacements Aaron Ross and Kyle Bosworth predictably struggled. If the Jaguars couldn’t stop the Vikings, they’re going to have a lot of trouble stopping the Texans.

This matchup seems pretty straight forward. Jacksonville had a nice little game in an eventual losing effort to a mediocre Vikings team, but they’re simply too overmatched to beat or even hang with the Texans, especially being as banged up as they are now. The Texans might be the most complete team in the league.  It’s not a very big bet though because I hate betting on road favorites of 7+. Road favorites of 7+ are 77-98 ATS since 2002, which is not quite significant enough to deter me from betting on the Texans in what should be a blow out game, but it is significant enough to prevent me from making this a big bet.

Weird things can happen in games between significantly superior teams and significantly inferior teams when the significantly inferior team is at home. Just think back to the Philadelphia at Cleveland game last week. Same situation and for the same reason I made it a small bet on Philadelphia, even though I felt it should be a blowout. It wasn’t and I wasn’t hurt too much.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Houston -7.5 (-105) 1 unit

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