Month: September 2012

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Baltimore, so everyone seems to be giving them a bit of a pass. However, I have Baltimore as one of my overrated teams, so we have an overrated team in Cincinnati remaining overrated because people are overrating their week 1 strength of opponent. Baltimore seems to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, failed to beat a single playoff team last year, going 0-8 in such games and if Baltimore makes the playoffs this year, his record would be 0-9 through his first season and a game against playoff teams. Fortunately, Cleveland is almost definitely not a playoff team. The Bengals also have suffered several major injuries. Leon Hall, predictably, is not 100% back from a torn Achilles suffered about 10 months ago and was uncharacteristically torched in the Baltimore game. They also put two starters on the offensive line, Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton, on IR. On top of that, top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and two of their cornerbacks, Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick, missed last week and could miss again this week.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

This team could easily lose 10 or more games this season. This isn’t some new prediction. I made it before the season and I’m sticking with it. Given that, they don’t deserve to be favorites of more than 6 against any one, not even the Browns, who I think are the league’s worst team, especially now without Joe Haden, their top defensive players. Teams that finish with 6 wins or fewer cover at roughly a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. This is a very powerful trend if you can accurately predict how teams will finish.

On top of that, there are other situational trends in play, ones that don’t take any forecasting. The Bengals are coming off a huge loss on MNF, losing by 31 on MNF. Teams that do this are typically flat the following week. It makes sense. Not only are you on a short week, but you are coming off a deflating loss. Since 2002, teams are 14-23 ATS coming off losses of 21+ on MNF, 3-12 ATS if they are favored the next week, as Cincinnati is.

On top of that, this is what’s known as a sandwich game. After this, the Bengals travel to Washington, where they will almost certainly be underdogs. Teams that are favorites before and after being underdogs are 37-54 ATS since 2010. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams typically are flatter than normal coming off a tough game and going into a tough game. The Bengals may see this is an easy breather and a chance to get their confidence back, which is not the right way to approach any game in the NFL. Anyone can lose at any time.

Meanwhile, the Bengals tend to fall flat as favorites anyway, going 5-13 ATS in this situation since 2007. One trend that works in the Browns’ favor, teams are 48-30 ATS after a loss of 3 or fewer at home as underdogs since 2002. This makes some sense. It seems to give confidence to teams if they are able to hang close in a game where they were expected to get blown out at home, but it doesn’t have the same adjusting affect on the spread that an actual win would produce.

I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 75% of the money is on Cincinnati, yet the line has dropped from -7.5 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7 with juice. They really want us to bet Cincinnati. The odds makers seem to agree that Cincinnati is overrated and they know no one is going to want to bet the Browns as mere touchdown underdogs. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

Even still, there is line value here. Cincinnati is still being overrated by the odds makers even with the “too good to be true line.” Cincinnati is not the type of team that deserves to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone. I think at the end of the year, we’ll wonder why this wasn’t something like Cincinnati -4 (3 points for home field advantage). Besides, all the trends are in Cleveland’s favor. I would make this my pick of the week, but Cleveland is really terrible, so instead, this will just be a significant bet. Brandon Weeden probably won’t be quite as bad as he was last week now that he has one start under his belt. I’m also picking Cincinnati to win outright here at home, but this is going to be a close, ugly, and unwatchable game, unless you have money on it, which I recommend you do.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7 (-115) 4 units

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

This is the game of the week right here. I’ve been high on the Bears all offseason, naming them as one of my underrated teams. In fact, I thought they were the 2nd best team in the NFC, but couldn’t have them winning the division because the Packers were just so good. Well, the Packers aren’t looking so good anymore. Aaron Rodgers has, believe it or not, dropped 3 of his last 4 starts, including two straight at home.

It hasn’t really been his fault. His defense is way too reliant on turnovers and can’t stop anyone without them. In their last 3 games where they failed to force a turnover, they’ve lost. It’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers in their next season. The Packers can’t expect to force the 38 turnovers they did last year. They’ll have to get better defensively.

I thought the addition of 3 key contributors through the draft and potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams would allow this team to bounce back; after all Dom Caper is one of the better defensive coordinators in the game and they had the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense in 2010, but I guess not. They made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana in the opener, blowing numerous coverages, failing to stuff the run, and only pressuring Smith on 7 dropbacks, fewest in the NFL last week. If they can’t improve defensively, their offense won’t be able to get onto the field to do what they do best and the Packers could fairly well be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. They can’t afford to go down 0-2 at home to start the season.

Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier here for the Packers. The Bears might be the best team in the NFL and if they aren’t, they are certainly up there. They can compete with the Packers, at the very least. They blew out an underrated Colts team last week to start this season. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

The Bears were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. The idea was to bet them until I was proven wrong or the odds makers caught up. The good news is that the odds makers don’t seem to have caught up, chalking last week’s win up to their strength of opponent, even though I think the Colts are also underrated. This line is -6 in Lambeau. At the very least, given the way the Packers played last week, this line should be -3, to indicate these teams are about even, so there’s line value here. And don’t worry about betting against Aaron Rodgers after a loss. He’s just 4-5 ATS in his career as a favorite after losing as a favorite. Besides, while I expect the Packers to come out with incredible urgency to try to avoid an 0-2 start, I expect the Bears to come out with a similar level of urgency in a statement game and a chance to put the Packers at a huge disadvantage early.

Jay Cutler and company should be able to move the ball with ease against this Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers and company should be able to do the same against the Bears’ defense, as good as they are, because Rodgers has proven that you can’t really stop him. You can just limit him. Even last week, he was 30 of 44 for 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick against the 49ers’ vaunted defense. That’s not a bad week statistically. The Packers will move the ball here. However, the Bears are a much more well rounded team, like the 49ers were last week. One injury of note for the Packers, Greg Jennings is unlikely to play. The Packers have a deep receiving corps, so that loss might not be huge, but he is their #1 receiver so his absence can’t be ignored.

I’m taking the Bears to win and cover as 6 point underdogs, though I’m a lot more confident about the latter than the former. This figures to be an evenly matched game, so even if the Bears do lose, it probably won’t be by very much. This is a tight rivalry historically. Before 2 contests last year, the last 6 matchups between these two have been decided by 7 points or less. What happened last year? Well, in their 1st matchup, the Bears lost by 10, but should have lost by 3 if not for a phantom penalty bringing back a Devin Hester return for a touchdown. I can only assume the refs had Packers -4 in that one. In their 2nd matchup, Cutler and Forte were both out, but the Bears still managed to keep it within 14 even though the Packers were 13-1 heading into that contest and the Bears had lost their 2 best offensive players and 4 straight. That says a lot about how seriously they take this rivalry, as do the Packers, so this one will be close either way most likely, now that the two sides are more evenly matched.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 31 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +6 (-105) 4 units

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Week 1 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 Results

ATS: 8-8 -4 units/-$655

SU: 9-7

Upset Picks: 3-4 -$250

Survivor: 1-0 (HOU)

Public Results*: 7-9 -6 units

2012 results to date

N/A yet

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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Chicago Bears: Week 2 Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

The Bears take over the #1 spot with a blowout win in which they were impressive on both sides of the ball, even though Brian Urlacher was playing hurt, against an underrated Colts team. I’ve been high on this team all offseason, but could never put them ahead of the Packers in the NFC because I thought the Packers were so good, but that defense looks like a mess in Green Bay. Of course, we’ll get an answer on Bears/Packers when the Bears head to Lambeau this week for Thursday Night Football. Stay tuned.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 21 of 35 for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 1 thrown away, 2 drops, pressured 11 times, 96.4 adjusted QB rating

RB Matt Forte: 80 yards (45 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 carries, 4 broken tackles, 3 catches for 40 yards on 5 attempts, 1 dropped pass, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Brandon Marshall: 9 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts, 1 drop, 2.8 YAC per catch on 39 pass plays

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 3 catches for 56 yards on 9 attempts, 2 interceptions, 2 pass deflections, 5 tackles, 1 stop on 13 run snaps

CB DJ Moore: Allowed 2 catches for 31 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles on 5 run snaps, 1 special teams tackle

FS Chris Conte: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 missed tackle on 13 run snaps

Duds

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 3 completions for 42 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles on 7 run snaps

ROLB Nick Roach: Allowed 2 completions for 43 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle on 11 run snaps, 1 quarterback pressure on 4 blitzes

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Houston Texans: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 1-0

The Texans really looked like they were sleep walking through most of last week’s game and they still got the 30-10 win. It’s tough to learn much about a team when they play the lowly Dolphins. The Texans get their first test of the season this week when they go to Jacksonville…wait no, never mind. Eventually, we’ll see what this team is made of against a real opponent.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 20 of 31 for 266 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 dropped passes, 104.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured 12 times

LT Duane Brown: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 2 carries

C Chris Myers: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 44 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries

WR Andre Johnson: 8 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets on 29 pass plays, 1 drop, 3.1 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 30 pass rush snaps, 3 batted passes, 1 tackle and 2 stops on 17 run snaps

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles and 1 stop on 18 run snaps

Duds

LG Wade Smith: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 6 carries

RG Antoine Caldwell: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 6 carries

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 carry

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New England Patriots: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 1-0

Super Bowl runner up hasn’t won the Super Bowl since Super Bowl XII or even made the Super Bowl since XXVIII. If anyone can end that, it’s the Patriots. The defense, unlike the Packers’ actually seems improved from last season, while the offense adds a new dimension with Brandon Lloyd coming in and Stevan Ridley becoming the starter. Tom Brady looks as good as ever and the offensive line held up, which was my biggest concern, albeit against a Titan pass rush that managed just 28 sacks last year.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 23 of 31 for 236 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 2 drops, 103.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured 12 times

RB Stevan Ridley: 125 yards (82 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 carries, 5 broken tackles, 2 catches for 27 yards on 3 attempts

TE Rob Gronkowski: 6 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 28 pass plays, run blocked for 62 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries

LOLB Dont’a Hightower: 3 quarterback pressures on 8 blitzes, 5 solo tackles and 4 stops on 10 run snaps, allowed 5 catches for 39 yards on 7 attempts

MLB Jerod Mayo: 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 7 run stops on 15 run plays, 1 penalty, allowed 5 catches for 28 yards on 6 attempts

DT Vince Wilfork: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback pressures on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle and 1 stop on 11 run snaps

FS Tavon Wilson: Allowed 4 catches for 24 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles and 1 stop on 7 run plays

RE Chandler Jones: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops on 14 run snaps

Duds

LT Nate Solder: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits allowed on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 carries

WR Wes Welker: 3 catches for 14 yards on 5 targets on 22 pass snaps, 4.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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Green Bay Packers: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 1 (-3)

Record: 0-1

The Packers’ defense was too reliant on turnovers last year. I thought they added enough talent and had enough bounce back candidate players to compensate and still be passable defensively, but they sure didn’t look that way against the 49ers. The last 3 times the Packers haven’t forced a turnover, they’ve lost. Every year there’s one team that goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. If the Packers don’t fix their defense and fast, they could be that team, as strange as it sounds. Aaron Rodgers is now 1-3 in his last 4 starts and they have a very good Bears team coming to town next week. They can’t afford to drop back-to-back home games to start the season.

Studs

WR Randall Cobb: 9 catches for 77 yards on 9 targets on 33 pass plays, 6.8 YAC per catch

ROLB Clay Matthews: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 stops on 33 run snaps

SS Charles Woodson: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 2 attempts, 2 sacks on 5 blitzes, 3 solo tackles and 3 stops on 33 run snaps

Duds

RG Josh Sitton: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure and 1 quarterback hit on 53 pass rush plays, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

RT Bryan Bulaga: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback pressures on 53 pass rush plays, 2 penalties, run blocked for 0 yards on 0 attempts

LG TJ Lang: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 53 pass rush plays, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 0 attempts

RB Cedric Benson: Rushed for 18 yards (10 after contact) on 9 carries, 1 broken tackle

TE Jermichael Finley: 7 catches for 47 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets on 44 pass plays, 2.7 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LOLB Nick Perry: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on pass rush 25 snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops on 33 run stop snaps, allowed 4 catches for 51 yards and 4 attempts

MLB DJ Smith: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 missed tackles, 4 stops on 32 run snaps, allowed 0 catches on 1 attempt

LE Ryan Pickett: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on pass rush 21 snaps, 1 assist on 25 run snaps

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 9 (+4)

Record: 1-0

Their offense was as advertised as they put up 40 on the Chiefs in Kansas City, though the Chiefs were missing their top two defenders. Speaking of missing defenders, the Falcons will be without top cornerback Brent Grimes for the entire season with a torn Achilles, which puts a damper on an otherwise good day for Falcons fans as they won on the road and the Saints lost at home. They’ll score a lot of points, but they’ll need to win a lot of shoot outs because their defense wasn’t exactly a strength even before the Grimes injury.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 23 of 31 for 299 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 1 dropped pass, 1 hit as thrown, one throw away, 110.3 adjusted QB rating, 3 rushed for 25 yards and a touchdown, pressured 8 times

WR Julio Jones: 6 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 targets on 34 pass snaps, 8.5 YAC per catch

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops on 32 run snaps, 5 receptions for 55 yards allowed on 8 attempts, 1 interception

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: 7 solo tackles, 6 stops on 32 run snaps, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes, 4 receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown allowed on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS William Moore: 3 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles on 32 run snaps, no completions allowed and 1 interception off a deflection

P Matt Bosher: 9 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, average distance of 68 yards per kickoff, average starting yard line of 20.3, 1 punt for 52 yards, returned for 14 yards, net punting average of 38.0 yards per punt

Duds

RB Michael Turner: 32 yards rushing (15 after contact) on 11 carries and 1 broken tackle, no receptions

CB Dunta Robinson: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, 1 stop on 27 run stop snaps, 4 completions for 56 yards allowed on 4 attempts

DT Peria Jerry: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 assisted tackle on 25 run stop snaps

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 6 (+1)

Record: 1-0

If I had remembered how bad the Steelers were on the road last year, I probably would not have picked them in Denver. Seriously, look at this, lose by 28 in Baltimore, win by 3 in Indianapolis, lose by 7 in Houston, win by 12 in Arizona, win by 7 in Cincinnati, win by 4 in Kansas City, lose by 17 in San Francisco, win by 4 in Cleveland. 3 good teams beat them, 3 bad teams hung with them, the only impressive wins were by 12 in Arizona and by 7 in Cincinnati and even those weren’t that impressive, and then of course there was the overtime playoff loss to the Broncos. This team was -22 on the road last year and +120 at home. They really need to win the division to have any chance to advance deep in the playoffs. The good news is they return home to play the Jets and get Ryan Clark and James Harrison back.

Studs

MLB Larry Foote: 10 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 7 stops on 28 run snaps, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes, allowed 2 completions for 10 yards on 3 attempt, 1 pass deflection

SS Troy Polamalu: Wasn’t thrown on, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop on 28 run snaps

K Shaun Suisham: 5 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 2/2 FG (21, 35)

Duds

LT Max Starks: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback pressures on 51 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

LG Willie Colon: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback pressure on 51 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 11 yards on 4 attempts

RG Doug Legursky: Allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback pressures on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 4 attempts

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 20 yards (17 after contact) on 11 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 7 yards on 2 attempts

LE Ziggy Hood: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop on 24 run snaps

RE Brett Keisel: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 assist on 22 run snaps

ROLB Chris Carter: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle on 19 run snaps

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 5 catches for 119 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle on 28 run snaps

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New Orleans Saints: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 6 (-1)

Record: 0-1

It’s not quite time to hit the panic button in New Orleans. They’ll get better as the season goes on. After the offseason they had, it’s understandable if they struggle out of the gate and if anyone can get through this, it’s a Drew Brees led team. However, they need to win the division to go anywhere in the playoffs because I don’t trust them to win a road playoff game and Atlanta looks like the better team right now. Those two divisional matchups with the Falcons could decide their season. Up next is a young Carolina team in Carolina. They can’t afford to go 0-2 so they’ll have to get over their road woes.

Studs

TE Jimmy Graham: 6 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets on 47 pass plays, 3.5 YAC per catch

LE Cameron Jordan: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, 9 stops on 45 run snaps

DT Brodrick Bunkley: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 4 stops on 29 run snaps, 1 sack on 21 pass rush snaps

P Thomas Morestead: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 72.7 average yards per kickoff, 19.2 average starting distance, 5 punts for 278 yards, 4 returns allowed for 34 yards, 48.8 net yards per punt

Duds

WR Joe Morgan: 0 catches on 2 targets on 31 pass plays

WR Marques Colston: 4 catches for 71 yards on 10 targets on 54 pass plays, 2.5 YAC per catch, 2 dropped passes, 1 interception when thrown to

SS Roman Harper: Allowed 3 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles on 45 run snaps, 1 quarterback pressure on 3 blitzes

ROLB David Hawthorne: 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 3 stops on 41 run snaps, allowed 4 catches for 50 yards on 4 attempts

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